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Roulette probabilities and more by Bayes / YADP (Yet Another Divisor Plan)
« Last post by Bayes on Today at 08:38:00 AM »
Ok, here is the divisor progression I mentioned on the DOZEN thread. It's basically quite simple although it can appear rather confusing at first. I'll first define the variables and give the core algorithm, then show you an example of how the numbers come out on a spreadsheet, using a sample of bets on the dozen.

Keep in mind that the progression can apply to any odds bet, but some research will be needed in order to find the optimum divisor (or sequence of divisors) for your target bet.

Variables

Target = the number of units of profit you expect (hope!) to gain every X spins. In my example and the software X is set to 8, so 1 unit every 8 spins is your target.

Divisor = the number which divides your target + current bank in order to find the next stake. A larger divisor means a smaller stake, a smaller divisor generates a larger stake.

TL = target + losses. After each bet, you need to calculate the TL according to the following algorithm:

Code: [Select]
If current bank is less than zero
   Let TL = target + ABS(current bank)
otherwise
  Let TL = T - current bank

Where ABS is a function which finds the absolute value of a number. Eg. ABS(-1) = 1, ABS(-7) = 7, etc. Look it up in Excel if in doubt.

Finally, having found TL, you can calculate the next stake, which is just TL divided by the divisor, then rounded up.

Code: [Select]
stake = ROUND(TL / Divisor)
Note that the minumum  stake is 1, so if it comes out at less than 1 after applying the above it should be raised to 1.

Here's the spreadsheet calculation:



Note that the first stake calculated (cell H3) should be raised to 1. The IF function for calculating TL is shown in the formula bar.

If you still find it confusing, don't worry because I've written a little point & click app which lets you enter spins, select the odds and change the divisor, and I'll upload it later today.


2
Roulette Systems / Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Last post by Reyth on Today at 05:59:23 AM »
Wow Term, very profound!  I can assure you that we all would have missed that subtlety if you hadn't of spelled it out!
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Roulette Systems / Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Last post by TERMINATOR on Today at 05:51:07 AM »
You mean by raising the inclination; somehow you are betting more than you would by using the divisor which means you recover faster?

Actually, just the opposite. I'm betting lower, which means I lower the progression level I'm on, thus lowering my risk if a bad streak hit. This also means possibly changing the trigger...so if I'm on level 4 (an XYY+3 trigger) and use my 2x Divisor to lower it to a level 2 (XYY trigger), then that means I wait less between spins because I am not playing an XYY+3 trigger.

Here is a more detailed description of my 2x Divisor:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1376.msg22034#msg22034
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Bet selections (flat bet systems) / Re: The "Twist and Turn"-Pattern
« Last post by ignatus on Today at 05:48:59 AM »
7/8 Games won
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Roulette Systems / Re: Merge Street
« Last post by Rinad on Today at 03:49:23 AM »
Being that I was bummed out about Elton John getting sick this week and cancelling my trip to Vegas for the weekend, I decided to login to my online casino and try out your method tonight for real money, Rinad.

You are right, it is definitely slow, but wow, is it powerful. During my initial testing I didn't keep good track of spin count, I just saw the wins come in. I figured if it could work on RNG, it should work on a physical wheel as well, no problem.

The hottest number I saw on the board was 35...34 had popped up twice during my initial watch, so I started there.

I didn't get my main number of 35 in the 38 spins you suggested, so I moved on to the next hottest number 20. (then of course 35 hits within 10 spins, lol). 21 became really hot and I was able to recoup my losses pretty quickly as I had climbed all the way up to level 54 of the progression. I was sure that this thing was about to lose for me.

Then suddenly, 21 hit again. And again, and within 9 spins of 21 hitting, 20 hit, leaving me with a nice win and a smile on my face.

Start time: 8:37pm CST
End Time: 9:13 pm CST
Start Bankroll: $640.30
End Bankroll: $837.30
End Profit: $197.00

I am going to keep testing with this, using live spins. I can post my spins if it would help anyone out.

Thanks for this method, Rinad. I an see myself playing this in Vegas for a long, long time.

Should I post every time I play?

Edited to add it was real money!
great Job Will, keep it up!
please keep me posted, it will help everyone interested by the method.
RX,RNG, harder to win at, in my opinion. always do better live. but i can test 25 sessions in 2 hours or less and keep track of results, as well as live sessions. 200 units is not bad for 2 hours of play.
what was your drawdown ?  was it table or airball roulette ?
glad you won and it is always something to be proud of. can be difficult at time. even know it is slow, it gives me time to figure my accounting, what my next bet will be,ect...  even side bets sometime.
keep on posting results and ideas . all welcome.
best,
Rinad
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Roulette Systems / Re: Bullseye
« Last post by Reyth on Today at 03:36:20 AM »
Have I ever seen a snap back fail?  Yes.  Its rare, like 1 out of 100 of them will fail (at the original progression).  This is why I don't bet my entire bankroll on them or even raise more than a single chip. ;)



Level 1. Soaking up a loss [cont].

+14 +21 +35 +35=+105/-1196 4/74 (519)
+33 +33 +27 +29=+122/-1074 4/145 (523)
+23 +27 +33 +30=+113/-961 4/125 (527)
+17 +17 +34 +25 +19=+112/-849 5/119 (532)
+11 +34 +10 +15 +27 +9=+106/-743 (538)
+11 +15 +9 +11 +9 +28 +25=+108/-635 7/191 (545) [230 spins GREATER than expectation]
+15 -2455=-2440/-3075

Level 4 Recovery.

+15 +66 +124 +60
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Roulette Systems / Re: Bullseye
« Last post by BioBrick on Today at 03:32:15 AM »
You simply OBSERVE the spins as if you were betting.  A BSE that persists would hit us several times in a row before we can gain profit, with each successive drawdown being larger than the last.

Keep in mind that we still need to bet the Snap Back Events even though we are spinning through a BSE.

The number of coups for the BSE to end depends on the progression; we want 1/2 of the amount of coups required before a PLE is due.  So the 95% progression is 12 coups and the 99% progression is 51 coups.

A Snap Back Event will occur about once every 10 coups, so another way of doing it is to bet 1 SBE for the 95% progression and 5 SBE for the 99% progression.

Ya, if I was at an online casino that didn't allow "free & empty spins", I would strongly consider changing casinos; otherwise we are vulnerable to the persistent BSE that will exhaust our bankroll.

:D I have been snap backing. This session that I'm playing when I get or got hit at the tail I rise chips and use more agressive progression. Has worked everytime :O. And after progression was lost I raised my chips to 3 and then got hit and I fiqured out this is a snap back event and used that more agressive progression same amout of chips and it worked too.

Impressive
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Roulette Systems / Re: Merge Street
« Last post by Reyth on Today at 03:27:40 AM »
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Roulette Systems / Re: Merge Street
« Last post by willtherock on Today at 02:32:13 AM »
Being that I was bummed out about Elton John getting sick this week and cancelling my trip to Vegas for the weekend, I decided to login to my online casino and try out your method tonight for real money, Rinad.

You are right, it is definitely slow, but wow, is it powerful. During my initial testing I didn't keep good track of spin count, I just saw the wins come in. I figured if it could work on RNG, it should work on a physical wheel as well, no problem.

The hottest number I saw on the board was 35...34 had popped up twice during my initial watch, so I started there.

I didn't get my main number of 35 in the 38 spins you suggested, so I moved on to the next hottest number 20. (then of course 35 hits within 10 spins, lol). 21 became really hot and I was able to recoup my losses pretty quickly as I had climbed all the way up to level 54 of the progression. I was sure that this thing was about to lose for me.

Then suddenly, 21 hit again. And again, and within 9 spins of 21 hitting, 20 hit, leaving me with a nice win and a smile on my face.

Start time: 8:37pm CST
End Time: 9:13 pm CST
Start Bankroll: $640.30
End Bankroll: $837.30
End Profit: $197.00

I am going to keep testing with this, using live spins. I can post my spins if it would help anyone out.

Thanks for this method, Rinad. I an see myself playing this in Vegas for a long, long time.

Should I post every time I play?

Edited to add it was real money!
10
Roulette Systems / Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Last post by palestis on Today at 12:12:48 AM »

I had separate stats for the XYY+3 trigger, and even though Palestis's original 3 triggers would lose once in a while in every 20 game sequence, the XYY+3 trigger never has yet. Even though when I use Alex's Excel program, the XYY+3 trigger has the same statistical hit rate as expected, the last 10,000 spins on the manual games I played were well above expectation.
I guess in light of all the positive info about the XYY trigger, then it pays to use this trigger only with a higher chip. The extra patience required will be well worth it.
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