Author Topic: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?  (Read 4076 times)

Reyth

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #30 on: February 20, 2017, 02:42:51 AM »
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #31 on: February 20, 2017, 10:52:35 AM »
Philip Koetsch did not know the theory of the short and long events. Long run test are useless. Long run rows can broaden your knowledge about random sequenses. From long run sequences you can learn more about the features.
Important is the definition of the short run. See my explanation of the DTOP.
Start a session always after a virtual loss and run after a hit.
Short run sessions with a proven strategy can beat the roulette. When this is true,such sessions are together not a long run session.
 
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Jesper

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #32 on: February 20, 2017, 11:29:49 AM »
It looks like a fikapause will save us!!!!!! ::)
 

Rinad

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #33 on: February 20, 2017, 01:54:45 PM »

starting a session after a virtual loss is key. and so as stoping after a win.  it is hard for some to grab the concept that the odds of winning are not only alive at a table in particular but are not tangible matter.
great comment.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2017, 11:03:41 PM by kav »
 

Reyth

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #34 on: February 20, 2017, 07:13:53 PM »
[LOSS=STATISTICAL EXTREMITY]
[WIN=RELEASE OF STATISTICAL EXTREMITY]

A) As long as we only bet during times of statistical extremity (done right), there is no such thing as a long run or short run; we are betting in the worst times of the long run.

B) Alternatively, if one can handle any expected statistical extremity, should it arise, this also makes the concept of long run or short run meaningless; the worst long run features are survived until statistical normaility is restored and profit is regained.

Since I cannot do the latter (I think its possible though), I must do the former.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2017, 07:33:11 PM by Reyth »
 
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Rinad

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #35 on: February 21, 2017, 12:00:47 AM »


 I have read in the forum a lot of your hard work done with the single number method. and have done so much of it myself.  I normaly dont play sleepers exept this morning I had encounter at the roulette machine the fact that number 7 had not yet showed up in 300 spins. being tempted, I begin playing it with a 5$ bet. it took another 60 spins before it finaly hit. made my money back plus a extra 100 $.

but I would of been better off playing what I normally play, which is a hot number, preferably if it hit 3 times.
so playing the extreme is extreme and very stressfull to me. I played that way for years.
I do 10 times better getting the dragon by the head,instead of the tail.
and i fully anderstand probabilities and why from a math standpoint, many players rather play the tail of the dragon, the extreme case. and at certain times it is worth doing. but I know from experience that playing short sessions,(exept this morning), as I normally do, is creating a better short run and long run data for the game. I was just reminded this morning why years ago I gave up playing sleepers and switched to the favorites. so many opportunities I missed by sticking to that ghost number. even know it took only 60 spins from the time I started playing it to the time I did hit it. it felt like old time, waiting,waiting, and waiting. nice chat.
 
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Rinad

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #36 on: February 21, 2017, 12:15:29 AM »
Philip Koetsch did not know the theory of the short and long events. Long run test are useless. Long run rows can broaden your knowledge about random sequenses. From long run sequences you can learn more about the features.
Important is the definition of the short run. See my explanation of the DTOP.
Start a session always after a virtual loss and run after a hit.
Short run sessions with a proven strategy can beat the roulette. When this is true,such sessions are together not a long run session

where do I find DTOP ??? thanks

also I am new at the forum. is there a place where all abbreviations are explained? if someone could tell me. thanks.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2017, 01:17:23 AM by Reyth »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #37 on: February 21, 2017, 09:41:20 AM »
I play on landbased and online roulette for about 40 years. Since we have personal computers , I simulate the roulette and design systems and strategies. The first PC was the commodor 64.With my study about random sequences I developed the features of the sequences. The maths are also very useful to understand these features. I have discovered the difference between short and long run rows. There is a relation between short and long run with the largeness of the number bet.
The changeover is the D(obbelsteen)T(urn)O(ver)Point. From this point the result of a system is negative. It is not an exact figure. The DTOP of a 37number bet is 1 spin and the DTOP for a 1 number bet is over the milion spins. For the dozens or a 12 number bet the DTOP is about 150 spins.

The most unknown feature is, that the roulette has only 37 possible odds. The table layout has 157 different possibilities to place your chips. A corner is a 4 number bet , a split is a 2 number bet. A mixed bet is a number bet  equal to the covered numbers

In my blog you can find much more about my theory.
 

Rinad

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #38 on: March 31, 2017, 09:50:17 PM »


  Philip Koesh 's book is a great read.
I encourage anyone to read it. it does show you the difference between long term and what happens in 100 spin test.
it shows you the power of stoping point.
one does not have to play of all of his spins in a casino. STOPING POINTS DO MATTER.

I did tests run on what happens when you dont play full cycles of 38 spins with one number. BIG DIFFERENCE!!!

WHY DO CASINOS ALWAYS WANT TO PLAY LONGER AT A TABLE AND DONT LIKE "HIT AND RUN PLAYERS?"

just not about the house edge. they know, and so should we.
God bless.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #39 on: March 31, 2017, 09:52:36 PM »
Sorry I cannot find this Author.  How do you spell his name again?
 

Rinad

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #40 on: March 31, 2017, 09:59:54 PM »


  Philip Koetsch, "conquer the casinos"

a must read for all roulette players. Kav mentions it at the start of the thread also.

Rinad
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #41 on: April 01, 2017, 09:37:05 AM »
I did not write a book , but I study the short and the long run random sequences already more than 30 years. In many papers I have published my theory in the blog on this site and others.
My conclusions are very clear. Only short run sessions played with a system and STATEGY can be successful.
Hit and run is the same as a stop statement in a program.
Words can not clearly describe the features of trials, the graphs of real or simulated  trials do!!!
The strength of simulations  is too much ignored by the system designers.
 
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Rinad

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #42 on: April 01, 2017, 12:05:28 PM »


   I agreed that short term play with a system is the only way to beat the house.

I ear sometime people mention; you cant never beat the house long term but you can short term.
it is a contradictory statement. 1000 short term sessions will create a long term session, and so forth...
so truly, there is no such thing as "winning short term but not long term"
what Phillip wrote in his book I thought was interesting is' what really happens within 100 spins". I am sure he is not the only one that studied these short term spins".
the power of compounding is also display in his book when you play a 1,2,3,4 pos.progression.
simulations with graphs I am sure are even better to the eye. but it clearly tells you not to play endlessly without knowing statistics about :what is a reasonnable goal to be acheive according to your play.
I think this is important. DONT COME TO A GUN FIGHT WITH A KNIFE.
Rinad.
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #43 on: April 01, 2017, 02:14:42 PM »
Many years ago I already wrote that you are a very good player when you realize a profit of 2 % of the  total input. With a  good strategy and system this is possible and my goal. In spite of this I have also my bad sessions. 8 Repeaters of a DS is deadly. 19 Red numbers for SSB finis  with a hit.
 

Rinad

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #44 on: April 01, 2017, 03:26:20 PM »


   what happens is because those deadly streaks are so rare, we stop believing they do exist.
I just ran a test on rx, and am I glad I was at home and not in a casino playing with real money
we are so much better off taking a small loss instead of chasing one. the holy grail system that never loses may not exist at all. you seem to have enough experience and miles under your belt that you may allready know that.
best,
Rinad
 
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