Author Topic: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?  (Read 4799 times)

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Reyth

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2016, 08:18:32 PM »
Its heady stuff and I already agree with the main principle but you guys are helping me to better wrap my head around it, thanks! :D
 

scepticus

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2016, 09:45:12 PM »
Yes, Harry. The fact that  bettors talk of HOT numbers and COLD numbers  testify to the fact that there is , as Dobbel says,  always an   imbalance. in short runs. So the  question  is " How can we make use of this Knowledge ? " So the Problem is easily defined. It's the Solution that is difficult. !
We can only  make an " educated " guess because no one can claim certainty where  only uncertainty exists - even our prejudiced critics.
 

Harryj

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2016, 06:08:03 PM »
   Scep the important thing I have found is that the method must be versatile. Constantly changing targets means that each session is different with the bet constantly changing. In this way you automatically take advantage of regression WHEN it occurs.  If red is winning in session [1] bet red. Next day session [2] Black predominates. Bet black. The combined sessions may result in an equal number of reds and blacks, but you will be well ahead.

     Regardless of what method you adopt . Bet Selection is the most important factor !
   
     Obviously you cannot guess right every time. It does not matter if your guess is within the span of the progression.

  Sorry about the delay in my replies. I have been experimenting with running my car on WATER.

     Real can have a great time on that one !

     Harry

 
   
     
   
 
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scepticus

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #18 on: May 12, 2016, 12:12:14 AM »
Hope your experiment with water fails Harry or the price of water will ROCKET.
Now where did I leave that bucket ?
 

Reyth

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #19 on: May 12, 2016, 12:59:33 AM »




FILL UP WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME!
 

scepticus

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2016, 01:39:24 AM »




FILL UP WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME!

I like it Reyth ! like it !
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2016, 09:57:53 AM »
Steamengines you can find them only in museas. Hydrogen is the future.
 
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scepticus

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #22 on: May 12, 2016, 01:13:21 PM »




FILL UP WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME!

Regarding your " disclaimer" Reyth.
I base my bets on the " available information" and strangely, this includes " past performance " .
Depending  on what is meant by past performance !
 

Reyth

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #23 on: May 12, 2016, 01:58:35 PM »
We have no reason to be cowed by people that pretend to be more intelligent than the facts.  A successive streak diminishes EVERY SINGLE TIME!!!  THE WORD SUCCESSIVE AUTOMATICALLY IMPLIES PAST RESULTS!

I am sorry but I refuse to be lectured to on the finer points of "theoretical statistics" by people who have given up on the game of roulette.

We must be stronger than our detractors!



Its bad enough that we have to deal with variance from the wheel & table limits from the casino, we don't need theoretical house edge fanatics chipping away at us too!
« Last Edit: May 12, 2016, 02:03:41 PM by Reyth »
 
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random

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #24 on: July 09, 2016, 11:37:23 PM »
All spins you observe take part on your Personal Permanence. It is like the random walk of your own consciousness. I've read loads of times "i've seen 20 reds in a row once, but i know they can extend to 40 and theoretically until infinity"
 
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kav

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #25 on: July 09, 2016, 11:47:09 PM »
All spins you observe take part on your Personal Permanence. It is like the random walk of your own consciousness. I've read loads of times "i've seen 20 reds in a row once, but i know they can extend to 40 and theoretically until infinity"
This is a VERY interesting and important subject.
There is a problem with the definition of Personal Permanence as "all spins you observe"
I believe "every spin you bet" is a better definition of it.

In fact there can be various Personal Permanences.
For example you can choose to include only the spins from one specific casino. The only rule is that the collection of spins that you include in your Permanence should be completely random and not reverse engineered.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2016, 11:50:09 PM by kav »
 
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BlueAngel

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #26 on: July 10, 2016, 01:23:47 AM »
Real on another place on the forum I have explained you in Jip and Janner language that special small events are together not a a large random row.!!!!!

So, I consider this knowledge to be quite important!

How is it that this difference can exist??

Why does this difference exist?? 

Is it true then that by playing small sessions we will get different results in the long term??

How do we divide between a small session and a long session?

What is the method whereby we can demonstrate this difference?

That's an excellent question and I'm going to try to explain my way of thinking.

If most of our bets won during a session, that session would be successful, if most of our sessions were successful, our long term would be profitable.

So everything comes down to each and every single bet, of course there are exceptions with high winning rate but not so profitable.
How come?
It's because some systems, like Martingale for example, are utilizing unbalanced and disproportional win  and loss limits.

What if I win 100 times 10 units and lose 1 time 1024?? Would you call that good?!
As you see high winning rate is NOT the most important, BALANCE is the key factor.

In my opinion, using a balanced bet selection, with balanced risk versus reward ratio is the key to long term profit.
Next time, before you start creating a new system think about the following:

Frequency of successful bets multiplied by Payout of your selection, quite simple but fundamental formula!!
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #27 on: July 10, 2016, 11:08:09 AM »
When you use a trigger to start a betting event and run after a profit, you play a short run trial.

SSB start  a betting event after a trigger that appeared once on 512 spins. After a hit SSB start a new event after another trigger. All events are short run trials. A betting event of 150 spins  consists of about 70 short run events without any delay.
 
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Rinad

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #28 on: February 20, 2017, 12:51:42 AM »
I think one of the differences is this.

If you study sequences of 600 spins then you can make some research and come to some conclusions depending on the betting system. Much like I present the good and bad scenarios when describing systems.

However in a long sequence (million spins) the good and bad sequences are lost and always the result will be something like -2,7%.

For example like horus has posted in the betselection cc forum, Philip Koetsch in his book "Conquer the casinos" has tested various betting systems. He used one hundred 600 spin sequences for his test and came up with very interesting conclusions. If he just tested millions of spins sequences he couldn't reach any usefull conclusion. I quote horus post:

- - - - - - - -

He looks for what he considers to be the most useful information.
Namely:
  • what are the absolute worst and best things that could theoretically happen?
  • what were the worst and best things that actually did happen in 600 rounds?
  • what were the average worst and best things that did happen?
  • what typically happens if you don't get out while your ahead , but instead play the full round of 100 games?
  • during a round, how often can you expect to get ahead by at least 10, 20 or 30 chips?
  • in a 100 game round, how many times does your bankroll net-status typically reverse from losing to winning?
  • how often does this net-status never reverse but remains losing throughout a 100 game round?
So all in all, it's a very detailed and interesting piece of analysis.

In the following tables we see the results for  3 dififferent methods of betting:
  • Flat betting
  • Linear betting: add 1 chip to the previous bet every time you win up to a total of 4 chips. You always revert back to 1 chip after a loss.
  • Geometric betting. This is letting a winning bet ride. So let's go for x3 again. (1,2,4,8) Revert back to 1 unit on a loss.
See the VERY INTERESTING tables.

PS: I want to thank horus for this amazing post in betselection.
a very good book indeed, surely explaining the benefits of stopping early.
 

Rinad

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Re: Does A Series Of Short Sessions Combine To Make A Long Series?
« Reply #29 on: February 20, 2017, 01:33:38 AM »
   

   assume you decide you sit at a table, placing a one dollar bet on number 11 for 500 spins non stop. at the end of the 500 spins you count the number 11 to have came up 15 times all together. you took 5 restroom brakes and saw that all 5 times you missed your number.
so that night you write on your log book that 11 came up 15 times within 500 spins.
or should you write you hit your number 11 only 10 times within 495 spins ?

the point is' big difference in having interruptions in one's game. it does affect long term results.
the best advantage the player has is the power to choose when to stop. the casino do not.
that + bet selection is everything. we choose our battles. and we lose some very often, but we can win the war.believe it.   Tony Robins asked sir John Templeton years ago ; sir, can you tell me what is it you think that makes the biggest difference in someone'success in business or life?
the reply was; tony i can show you charts,statistics, all of it. but really, it is one's own philosophy on his business that makes all the difference in the end.  so if I dont get the results that I want and have been working for years on my roulette business, maybe,or could it be possible that my mindset is wrong,my approche is wrong? just a thought.
 
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