Author Topic: Bullseye  (Read 19702 times)

Reyth

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Bullseye
« on: December 25, 2015, 09:29:21 AM »



                                                                    
                                   

                                       


Updated method here :

http://rouletteforum.roulette30.com/index.php/topic,648.msg9699.html#msg9699

 
1
1
35
1
2
34
1
3
33
1
4
32
1
5
31
1
6
30
1
7
29
1
8
28
19.70%
2
10
62
2
12
60
2
14
58
2
16
56
2
18
54
2
20
52
2
22
50
2
24
48
35.51%
3
27
81
3
30
78
3
33
75
3
36
72
3
39
69
3
42
66
3
45
63
3
48
60
48.22%
4
52
92
4
56
88
4
60
84
4
64
80
4
68
76
4
72
72
4
76
68
4
80
64
58.40%
5
85
95
5
90
90
5
95
85
5
100
80
5
105
75
5
110
70
5
115
65
5
120
60
66.55%
6
126
90
6
132
84
6
138
78
6
144
72
6
150
66
6
156
60
6
162
54
73.16%
7
169
83
7
176
76
7
183
69
7
190
62
7
197
55
7
204
48
7
211
41
7
218
34
78.45%
8
226
62
8
234
54
8
242
46
8
250
38
8
258
30
8
266
22
8
274
14
8
282
6
82.66%
9
291
33
9
300
24
9
309
15
9
318
6
9
327
-3
9
336
-12
9
345
-21
9
354
-30
86.08%
10
364
-4
10
374
-14
10
384
-24
10
394
-34
10
404
-44
10
414
-54
10
424
-64
10
434
-74
88.82%
11
445
-49
11
456
-60
11
467
-71
11
478
-82
11
489
-93
90.28%
« Last Edit: January 16, 2016, 09:04:58 PM by Reyth »


 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #1 on: December 25, 2015, 11:47:21 AM »
Without any explanation or description this thread is only filling the forum
 

Reyth

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Reyth

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2015, 02:06:45 PM »
Ok I have experimented with and analyzed the deviation triggers and I have discovered that the best way to safely use them is to gain an edge on the overall debt caused by the recent session bust.

After a session bust and the first win, there is a 99.5% chance of striking a win directly subsequent to that.  This is a tremendous advantage but that .5% can play MAJOR havoc when it occurs.  It is similar to betting 34 numbers and you get so many wins in a row but when that miss finally hits, its like almost impossible to make it up. 

Instead of betting 10 units or some other ludicrous amount, I find the safest thing to do is simply drop down a recovery level and take a 25-50% edge off the debt.  If the .5% event occurs, repeat once more and after the third time it will come in as there is only a 1 in 16M chance of it missing 4 times in a row. 

In whatever circumstance occurs, we will have an edge on the debt that we otherwise would not of gained.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2016, 04:20:43 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2015, 05:57:11 PM »


I got the idea of a session map from this post by Sputnik:

http://rouletteforum.roulette30.com/index.php/topic,647.msg8570.html#msg8570

I have started to play more aggressively using the recovery levels and I am starting to have some fantastic journeys:

Reasons To Move Down A Level

Session bust out
Session bust out followed by a win
Coup taken well outside of expectation

Reasons To Move Up A Level

Profit goal attained for current level
Successive coups taken well before expectation
Second win after a session bust out
« Last Edit: December 28, 2015, 06:22:17 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2015, 05:43:34 PM »


Green "+" button with every spin of the wheel.  Red "HIT" button when your number hits.  Green "NEW" button when you reset the (relative) spin counter (every 8 spins).  The deviation will show red if greater than expectation, green if less than expectation and white if at expectation (1.0).  The calculation is simply the number of hits divided by the number of total spins/37 [hits/(total spins/37)] and therefore its a percentage.

The goal of this software is to monitor the state of deviation in relation to our number going missing and/or hitting.

So far the deviation is looking to be a strong indicator of when to "sit out" and pick up the progression from the beginning once the deviation calms down.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3k7u3p_capture-wed-dec-30-19-15-12_videogames

What I am now noticing is that the betting system as it is, eventually forces itself into bankruptcy by continuously demanding coups that defy expectation.  Eventually static percentages are not enough to overcome the existing deviation (equal distribution).  It is very interesting to see equal distribution as a force working AGAINST us where in my mind I have always thought of it as working FOR us. : D 

Here are some potential strategies using this deviation indicator:

A) Conservative -- Do not bet until 1.0 deviation (none) or better.
B) Moderate -- Only bet when the static percentage > the deviation.
C) Aggressive -- Only bet at #.## deviation or better.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3kadqz_capture-thu-dec-31-05-36-02_videogames
« Last Edit: December 31, 2015, 12:21:07 PM by Reyth »
 

december

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2015, 05:48:59 PM »
One day when you have time, will you mind explain it to us mortals?

Thanks Reyth for effort
 

Reyth

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2015, 06:09:08 PM »
You play a single number for 84 bets according to the progression in the first post.  When your number hits start over at the beginning, always using the same number.

When you miss all 84 bets drop down to the 2nd level which means the unit size is 2 instead of 1 and bet on the same progression schedule.  When you get a hit, drop down to the 3rd level (unit size is 3) and start at the beginning of the progression again.  When you get a hit move back up to the second level and play until profit is restored and then go back to 1 unit again.

Every time you go through the progression without getting a hit you drop down a level until a hit is gained and drop another level until a hit is gained and go back up to the previous level to hit the level profit goal.  The profit goals are:

1 any
2 500
3 750
4 1000
5 1250
6 1500
7 1750
8 2000
9 2250
10 2500

With the addition of the deviation triggers (which is why we drop to the third level after the delayed hit), this is the same system from D'Alembert Avenue & Simple Street with the main difference being it is on a single number only because it has the best performance statistically and the D'Alembert progression is "strung out" by 8 bets between raises.

EXAMPLE: You go through the progression and miss all 84 bets.  You note your last successful balance and create a new session with your current balance.  You set a profit goal of 500 units at level 2 and begin the progression again.  On the 40th bet, your number hits (this is a deviation trigger) so you drop to the 3rd level and start the progression over again.  You get a hit and move back up to the second level (unit size 2) and continue betting the progression until you reach the level profit goal of 500 units.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2015, 06:23:06 PM by Reyth »
 

december

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2015, 06:33:27 PM »
Not sure I can absorb it during this year...
All the best Reyth, keep us informed.
 

Reyth

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2015, 06:43:10 PM »
Once I get all the details ironed out I will make a video.  This is my final method in this class, there cannot be one that is more efficient.

I expect that monitoring the SD will produce very accurate forecasts of upcoming trends.  Playing a single number really seems to make the trends more apparent/visible.

Quote
“You never really know what's coming. A small wave, or maybe a big one. All you can really do is hope that when it comes, you can surf over it, instead of drown in its monstrosity.” ? Alysha Speer

Quote
One of the most impressive things about the bamboo in the forest is how they sway with even the slightest breeze.  Their bodies are hard and firm and yet sway gently in the breeze while their trunks stay rooted firmly in the ground below. Their foundation is solid even though they move and sway harmoniously with the wind, never fighting against it. In time, even the strongest wind tires itself out, but the bamboo remains standing tall and still. A bend-but-don't-break or go-with-the-natural-flow attitude is one of the secrets for success...

Quote
The important image of snow-covered bamboo represents the ability to spring back after experiencing adversity. In winter the heavy snow bends the bamboo back and back until one day the snow becomes too heavy, begins to fall, and the bamboo snaps back up tall again, brushing aside all the snow. The bamboo endured the heavy burden of the snow, but in the end it had the power to spring back as if to say "I will not be defeated."

Since my work with SD is new I want to make sure I am doing this correctly.  A single SD for a single number calculated for 37 spins is 1.986394:

1 SD 1.986394 = 73 spins
2 SD 3.972788 = 146 spins
3 SD 5.959182 = 220 spins
4 SD 7.945576 = 293 spins
5 SD 9.93197 = 367 spins
6 SD 11.918364 = 440 spins
=====================================================
MAX EXPECTED CONSECUTIVE LOSS 455 12.2972972972973 missing hits
=====================================================
7 SD 13.904758
8 SD 15.891152
9 SD 17.877546
10 SD 19.86394

So 7-10 SD will never occur according to reasonable expectation.

This information doesn't seem too helpful for spin by spin play because we are clearly witnessing  objective trends occurring in as few as 64 spins which is not even a single SD.  I guess to make this data useful, we need to break it into "micro SD's" for smaller trend analysis.

I think what I need to do is simply forget about SD's and use a % of hits above/below 1 hit every 37 spins. 

Specifically I want a rating that will reliably indicate when the wheel wlll "draw back" and sleep the number for more than 88 spins.  Of course this can occur without warning or "reason" which itself becomes statistically relevant but I am talking about "standard" & common wheel behavior.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2015, 07:47:21 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #10 on: December 31, 2015, 11:23:27 AM »


           Variance
A shadowy figure that is all but invisible and whose actions are only possible to comprehend after he has struck.  All we can do is take precautions against him but thoroughly defeat him?  This we cannot do.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2015, 04:36:02 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #11 on: December 31, 2015, 02:39:25 PM »
Once I get all the details ironed out I will make a video.  This is my final method in this class, there cannot be one that is more efficient.

I expect that monitoring the SD will produce very accurate forecasts of upcoming trends.  Playing a single number really seems to make the trends more apparent/visible.

Quote
“You never really know what's coming. A small wave, or maybe a big one. All you can really do is hope that when it comes, you can surf over it, instead of drown in its monstrosity.” ? Alysha Speer

Quote
One of the most impressive things about the bamboo in the forest is how they sway with even the slightest breeze.  Their bodies are hard and firm and yet sway gently in the breeze while their trunks stay rooted firmly in the ground below. Their foundation is solid even though they move and sway harmoniously with the wind, never fighting against it. In time, even the strongest wind tires itself out, but the bamboo remains standing tall and still. A bend-but-don't-break or go-with-the-natural-flow attitude is one of the secrets for success...

Quote
The important image of snow-covered bamboo represents the ability to spring back after experiencing adversity. In winter the heavy snow bends the bamboo back and back until one day the snow becomes too heavy, begins to fall, and the bamboo snaps back up tall again, brushing aside all the snow. The bamboo endured the heavy burden of the snow, but in the end it had the power to spring back as if to say "I will not be defeated."

Since my work with SD is new I want to make sure I am doing this correctly.  A single SD for a single number calculated for 37 spins is 1.986394:

1 SD 1.986394 = 73 spins
2 SD 3.972788 = 146 spins
3 SD 5.959182 = 220 spins
4 SD 7.945576 = 293 spins
5 SD 9.93197 = 367 spins
6 SD 11.918364 = 440 spins
=====================================================
MAX EXPECTED CONSECUTIVE LOSS 455 12.2972972972973 missing hits
=====================================================
7 SD 13.904758
8 SD 15.891152
9 SD 17.877546
10 SD 19.86394

So 7-10 SD will never occur according to reasonable expectation.

This information doesn't seem too helpful for spin by spin play because we are clearly witnessing  objective trends occurring in as few as 64 spins which is not even a single SD.  I guess to make this data useful, we need to break it into "micro SD's" for smaller trend analysis.

I think what I need to do is simply forget about SD's and use a % of hits above/below 1 hit every 37 spins. 

Specifically I want a rating that will reliably indicate when the wheel wlll "draw back" and sleep the number for more than 88 spins.  Of course this can occur without warning or "reason" which itself becomes statistically relevant but I am talking about "standard" & common wheel behavior.

Aaaaah...your precious quotes reminded me a sex position from the ''Kamasutra'' called  ''the tearing of the baboo''...!
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #12 on: December 31, 2015, 02:45:47 PM »
I'm going to try to describe it in my own words, it is when the woman lays down with her legs up and while the man penetrating the vagina, she place one leg at a time on his shoulders, NOT both of the legs, 1 at a time and this rhythmic sexual exercise seems so exhausting...!
 

Real

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #13 on: December 31, 2015, 07:37:31 PM »
Quote
Specifically I want a rating that will reliably indicate when the wheel wlll "draw back" and sleep the number for more than 88 spins. Of course this can occur without warning or "reason" which itself becomes statistically relevant but I am talking about "standard" & common wheel behavior.-Ryeth

Again, it's gambler's fallacy nonsense.  You're going in circles by revisiting the same foolish idea that's been recycled by countless gamblers before you.  Free your mind.  Read more on the history of the wheel.

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e., independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bJa9rNzAF4
« Last Edit: December 31, 2015, 08:22:06 PM by Real »
 

DrTalos

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #14 on: December 31, 2015, 11:07:23 PM »
This is so true, Real. Human mind needs to see a pattern where there is not. I always say that there is no  reason in selecting numbers to play, or special combination that works as triggers (wait three blacks, then...) this is nonsense. If a system works, must do it with any random number you chose to bet.
 

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