Author Topic: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius  (Read 14540 times)

Vitalij_D

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #15 on: January 11, 2016, 05:51:46 PM »
Very interesting!  Can you isolate that 5% of output sequences so we can examine them?

I am sure the progression which is very basic and simple can be modified to improve that win rate significantly.  We would be looking to identify flags that are universal to these sequences and then employ a progression modification to improve the results.

If you guys like, I can generate a text file of like 1000 such loss sequences and also confirm your results with my own simulation. : )
Here is one of many examples . Taken back for one day casino. Look , how will your strategy on the number 24 .

Vitalij_D

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #16 on: January 11, 2016, 05:55:56 PM »
Looks like I owe Reyth a beer. After those couple hours last night, I decided to play for real money (bitcoin). 0.1 BTC is equivalent to 1000 units on one of the websites I use. That is approx \$44 USD. Up +500 units last night, up another +400 this morning. Thats \$40 profit... thanks!

Congratulations. You're lucky you get a successful wave. You win \$ 40 , at the risk of losing in case of failure, \$ 140 if you get to the end of progression !

Reyth

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #17 on: January 11, 2016, 06:04:02 PM »
Wow grats!  Be warned though, this is a raw system designed by someone else who only put in a surface analysis.  There is still some tweaking to be done to "tighten up" that win rate.  According to Vitalij there is a 1 in 20 chance of busting out completely with the raw system.

I am assuming he started with 3200 units...

Reyth

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #18 on: January 11, 2016, 06:18:39 PM »
Very interesting!  Can you isolate that 5% of output sequences so we can examine them?

I am sure the progression which is very basic and simple can be modified to improve that win rate significantly.  We would be looking to identify flags that are universal to these sequences and then employ a progression modification to improve the results.

If you guys like, I can generate a text file of like 1000 such loss sequences and also confirm your results with my own simulation. : )
Here is one of many examples . Taken back for one day casino. Look , how will your strategy on the number 24 .

Ok the post with 455 spins is not a progression post.  It is a post that shows the worst draw-down expected in a single shot without hitting our number.  The progression doesn't end there but at the exhaustion of 3200 units.

Can you re-run the simulation that way?

Jake007

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #19 on: January 11, 2016, 06:31:32 PM »
Wow grats!  Be warned though, this is a raw system designed by someone else who only put in a surface analysis.  There is still some tweaking to be done to "tighten up" that win rate.  According to Vitalij there is a 1 in 20 chance of busting out completely with the raw system.

How could the win rate be tightened? Instead of random number generation after a win, selecting a random number from say the 5 worst performing numbers in the past 37 spins?

Reyth

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #20 on: January 11, 2016, 06:37:12 PM »
Wow grats!  Be warned though, this is a raw system designed by someone else who only put in a surface analysis.  There is still some tweaking to be done to "tighten up" that win rate.  According to Vitalij there is a 1 in 20 chance of busting out completely with the raw system.

How could the win rate be tightened? Instead of random number generation after a win, selecting a random number from say the 5 worst performing numbers in the past 37 spins?

Well first of all his simulation was based on 455 spins in the progression which is not the true loss point as the system doesn't quit on spin 455 and not to mention there won't be any spins past 455 with our number not hitting.  We aren't likely to see that in our lifetime ever actually, anyway.

But the weakness will be in successive draw-downs without recovery because the progression is too weak to recover from the larger losses.  What we need to do is discover the flags that indicate this stagnation has occurred and beef up the progression to recover better.  Just my theory as I haven't seen the losing sequences yet.

Like I mean 200 spins a win, 90 spins a win, 300 spins a win, 75 spins a win prolonged out where the progression never recovers or earns enough to get back to profit before it gets drawn down further and further until it busts at -3200 units.

I am starting to suspect his simulation is flawed...  If the definition of a loss is hitting 456 spins, we have nothing to worry about as we will simply not hit that point in our lifetimes and it is quite certainly IMPOSSIBLE that there is a 5% chance of hitting spin 456 without our number hitting -- simply IMPOSSIBLE.

I am willing to maintain some minor variance on this issue because the potential variance on a single number is just so huge BUT the variance MUST occur in the area of 1 in 10M+ odds which is NOWHERE near 5%, like in an another universe that is on a different plane of existence even.  In other words, compare the number 20 to the number 10,000,000 and tell me they are even close??
« Last Edit: January 11, 2016, 07:09:47 PM by Reyth »

Jake007

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #21 on: January 11, 2016, 08:02:09 PM »
Well..... I just gave the house its 400 units back :|

Reyth

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #22 on: January 11, 2016, 08:08:46 PM »
Sorry to hear that.  The system is supposed to work to bring you back into profit, did you quit?

Jake007

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #23 on: January 11, 2016, 08:49:36 PM »
Sorry to hear that.  The system is supposed to work to bring you back into profit, did you quit?

I dropped down from 1000 units all the way down to 300 units, back up to 550 units. Essentially putting me in line with the 2.7% house edge.. ha!

I can practice all day long on play money, the only thing that really matters is real bets. Then again, I have little trust with online casinos but thats all I have for now.

spins

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #24 on: January 11, 2016, 08:57:02 PM »
same for me jake I wouldn't give online casino's a cent

Vitalij_D

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #25 on: January 12, 2016, 05:03:54 AM »
Can you re-run the simulation that way?

It was not a simulation. I took a sample of the spins of one of the real casino . I just want to say that you can play for a long time , and everything will be fine . But you can get there in the black bar when you lose 3185 chips. From this no one is safe .

Reyth

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #26 on: January 12, 2016, 03:19:08 PM »
There is something wrong here that there are "5%" of results that fail directly??

Direct failure should be seen like once a century or once every 25 years, something like that.

Btw, do you have a database of live spins you are sorting through?

Vitalij_D

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #27 on: January 12, 2016, 06:11:31 PM »
There is something wrong here that there are "5%" of results that fail directly??

Direct failure should be seen like once a century or once every 25 years, something like that.

I can not agree with it. Every day there is a casino in such numbers that can fall asleep for a long time , or get in such intervals that will not be enough to close the minus .

Here's another example . There are two numbers 18 and 36 .

Vitalij_D

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #28 on: January 12, 2016, 06:31:50 PM »
Here's another example . There are two numbers 29 and 31.
On average, and it turns out every game 1 or 2 numbers can get bad , so the risk remains always ~ 5.5 %

Reyth

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #29 on: January 12, 2016, 06:31:53 PM »
What do you mean not close the gap?  All your examples are 455 spins.

The chances of not hitting within 455 spins are 1 in 16M, that is NOWHERE near 5% AT ALL.

Do you have a database that you are sorting through with dates from live results?

Regardless of your source and selection method, it is IMPOSSIBLE that it is a 5% chance of 456 spins in a row without hitting our number.

Are you trying to say that after 455 spins if we don't have a profit that it is a loss?  That would certainly be a vastly more acceptable figure that can be worked with.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2016, 06:34:39 PM by Reyth »