Author Topic: Virtual Losses  (Read 961 times)

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #15 on: June 04, 2017, 11:43:26 PM »
Palestis, thanks for answering my 3 questions.

Just one more clarification question. Let's say I wait for 3 virtual losses, and my actual bets go like this:

LLL LW

The progression would go "1-1-2 2-2 and I would win the last bet. However, I would actually be 2 units down for those 5 bets.

Would you STOP here and wait for more virtual wins before betting again? Or would you continue betting until you had a new high? And THEN stop.

I presume it's the latter. Thanks.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 11:45:43 PM by TERMINATOR »
 

palestis

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2017, 12:06:52 AM »
If you waited for 3 VL's and then you had LLL LW, it means one thing. The LLL was a 4th trigger lost.
Then you lost the first spin in the 5th trigger and you won the 2nd bet in the 5th trigger. Is that correct?
If I understood  correctly, my progression would be different. Losing 3 triggers virtually, is a big deal in this system. (look at the money you saved, if you had placed 9 bets with progression).
You may bet 1-1-2 , but the unit value should be higher. If my regular bets are $5, in this case I would start with $25. But on the 5th trigger the progression should be higher than   2-2 after you lost 1-1-2. I would bet 3-4 or even 3-5 to make sure I emerge winning out of this deal.
Having lost 3 virtual triggers, are hard to come by, and the money  saved quite a bit.
Knowing that 5 triggers lost back to back is extremely rare, it's an opportunity for a certain win.
I assume that when you say you waited to lose 3 virtual bets, you mean 3 triggers.
Not 3 spins. Because that would be one virtual trigger loss.
You might want to clarify that.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2017, 12:25:58 AM by palestis »
 

palestis

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2017, 01:43:03 AM »

The advantage is not so much the hit rate. Waiting for losses or your selection getting cold you miss many wins when your numbers are hot and hit like crazy. So I don't thing there is any advantage in the hit rate. The only advantage is in the confidence of the knowledge that your numbers are now getting seriously cold and sooner or later they will get warmer.

Here is an example of underperforming sectors.
The area that was underperforming was the sector from 1 to 18. (7 numbers sector).
It was missing for 54 spins. ( it's like a DS + 1 number on the layout missing 54 spins), Then 31- 22 showed up. But after that it took another 11 spins for that sector to show up again. With 18. Just because the 31-22 showed up,  it wasn't a trigger that the sector was going to warm up. Losing 11 spins till 18 came, would be detrimental to a player who was expecting that sector to start warming up. If not so much financially (only 7 numbers), but psychologically. After 5-10 spins a player would probably give up, thinking that the sector went back to cold. And losing quite a few spins betting 7 numbers with some progression.
But if that player waited till this sector started appearing at least as frequently as its statistical share (which is about every 5 spins), then he would obviously make a killing.
If you notice when one number from that sector shows up it usually drags one or more numbers from that sector with it.
So all you have to do is bet only after one number from the target sector shows up.
And bet all the numbers in the sector up to 5 times (more numbers in a sector less bets).
As long as the numbers show up in more frequent intervals than their statistical obligation obviously you are ahead. And finally in the 6th column there was a tsunami of numbers in that sector.
The point is knowing when a sector or section starts to become warm.
Betting in advance thinking that it is about time to get warm most likely will backfire.
And the best indicator is when the numbers in that sector start showing up more frequently than  their statistical share. But you have to act promptly. If you wait to see more frequent appearances, you might miss the opportunity.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2017, 03:35:45 AM by palestis »
 

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #18 on: June 05, 2017, 04:06:31 AM »
Thanks Palestis. I had a typo. I meant to say TWO virtual losses, not 3. But thanks for answering my question. So, you basically change your original progression so that when you win ONCE, you will come out ahead at least 1 unit. That makes sense!
 

kav

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #19 on: June 05, 2017, 08:20:02 AM »
I enjoy this thread very much!

@TERM
Quote
1) When you first start a game, do you wait for virtual losses BEFORE pacing bets? Or do you bet first, then use virtual bets after a loss, before betting again?
First we need to clarify what a virtual bet is. Because to me and Palestis virtual bets are not the same thing. Palestis believes you should be there and watch the wheel for a virtual bet to count. For me any spin that I have not bet on is a possible virtual bet. So past spins qualify for virtual bets.

How I use them. Mainly before the attack. When you observe a cold section in previous spins, that can be translated to virtual losses for someone who would bet that section. But you can use virtual bets even after the attack. Using past spins you identify cold sector. You bet. You win immediately. Wait a couple spins. The cold sector doesn't hit again. You bet again.

If I start the attack and lose I usually stay on the game betting real.

Quote
2) When you first start a game, and the virtual bets are winning one after the other, do you STILL wait for a virtual loss before betting? Or, do you start betting because of the streak of wins happening right now? (If bet, how many virtual wins in a row do you wait before you start betting?)
Like I said I'd look for cold sectors. So if my numbers are winning I'll look elsewhere. Sometimes you identify a cold sector and you just wait for a couple more virtual losses before starting the attack. And instead of the VL you get a virtual win. In these cases i feel like someone stole the bite out of my mouth. What I do next depends on the deviation I have observed.

If there is a great deviation and my bet is super cold I may start the attack after a win.  Or I may wait for a couple spins and if losses occur I attack then. Or if the deviation was not too great then I leave blaming myself for being too careful and waiting for too many losses

Quote
3) When you start betting, and finally win a bet after waiting for a virtual loss, do you STOP betting after your first win, and wait for another virtual loss? Or do you keep betting after your win, until you lose again. THEN wait for another virtual loss before betting again?
There is some intuition and decision making taking place on these issues, but I will keep it simple:
Look past spins (virtual bets) identify coldness. Start attack with VERY MILD progression. Exit when in profit. You can keep betting, but its more safe to exit when in profit.
 
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kav

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #20 on: June 05, 2017, 08:32:28 AM »
@Palestis

Thanks for this great example.

First of all a clarification. I don't expect to make lots of money when the sector gets hot (though I do search for ways to do this as well). Simply put I just look for a profit and as soon as I'm in profit I exit the attack.
Everything depends on the progression. I suggest a patient progression. In your example with 7 numbers even if we  started the attack 12 spins before the first hit, with the right progression we could make a profit well before the end of the super hot streak.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #21 on: June 05, 2017, 09:27:41 AM »
sometimes the temptation to start the betting after a long virtual loss is too big. Hide you for such temptations.
A random number of twelve numbers has the same feature as the Tier du cilindre or a dozen or column.
Analyse the 12 number bet wager and you  understand the described anomalies.The 2/3 rule has always a sleeping random dozen on 36 spins.
In the future you can play 1 unit on the tier du cilindre at the Dutch roulette table. !3 juni we will introduce the Dutch tables on an international expo in Amsterdam. 
 

scepticus

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #22 on: June 05, 2017, 01:34:24 PM »
, Dobbel,       I  Hope  your Dutch Table sells  well  .Best of luck with it  !
 

palestis

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #23 on: June 05, 2017, 03:01:49 PM »
I enjoy this thread very much!

@TERM
Quote
1) When you first start a game, do you wait for virtual losses BEFORE pacing bets? Or do you bet first, then use virtual bets after a loss, before betting again?
First we need to clarify what a virtual bet is. Because to me and Palestis virtual bets are not the same thing. Palestis believes you should be there and watch the wheel for a virtual bet to count. For me any spin that I have not bet on is a possible virtual bet. So past spins qualify for virtual bets.
It's not always like this.
For longer term statistics, if you are not there, you can 't possibly know what happened before
the 12-16 numbers  a score board holds. A section may look cold on the current score board, but it could've been very hot on the score board previously to what you see now. And the current snapshot could be misleading.
Of course the right thing to do is to monitor several roulettes with a score card for each one of them.
An entire score board takes time to disappear, so you have plenty of time to record all the numbers of each roulette, before the score board changes. 
The reason that sometimes I want to be present on top of the roulette to record VL's is simply because  one of my systems calls for RANDOM BETS. Like betting  3 random Quads,
and change them after every spin. I can't possibly determine if I have virtual losses on the score board  at the time,  because my bet will be  random, and whatever is on the board at the time doesn't reflect randomness. ( Now that I think of it, I can make some random bets in advance away from a roulette, then approach the roulette to see if those random bets failed. I never thought of that).
If I see a roulette with 8 black in a row, of course I will consider that as 8 red virtual losses, and will proceed to make  3 bets on red. Stop if I hit it.
Or thinking that 8 black might very well continue to produce a 9th black  in the next 3 spins, I could also bet on black. 

 

kav

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #24 on: June 05, 2017, 04:11:16 PM »
Palestis you know how much I respect your playing experience.
You know that I have asked you repeatedly about your idea of virtual bets and how they were different that past spins.

Here you say:
''''
VIRTUAL BET  to me means one thing and one thing only. That it is an actual bet. You actually have to stand right in front of the roulette and make the bet. Whether you make it with your mind or with a penny (if it was allowed ). The only difference is that this bet has no substantial money value. However it has the same statistical value as if money was wagered.
The power of human guessing cannot be underestimated. But you have to be involved in the guessing to qualify as a virtual bet. Seeing RR in some roulette and use that as 2 virtual losses doesn't count. Therefore placing 3 more bets after seeing that, is a 3 bet series. And it has another statistical value. The number of bets in the series is the actual number of guesses you will act on. Including bets that have no money value.
''''

There is further discussion about virtual bets vs past spins here and here
 

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #25 on: June 05, 2017, 05:53:42 PM »
Yes, it only makes sense that past spins qualify as virtual bets, whether someone sees them happening or looks at the board afterwards. It does help determine the current "temperature" of the table, in the short term.
 

palestis

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #26 on: June 06, 2017, 01:17:15 AM »
@ Kav
Yes I have said that in the past
My reasoning is for the vey short term and for very few spins. 
If you go around the casino floor, you will find 5 black in a row in some roulette, 6 odd in a row in another etc. etc. very easily.
However, try to stand in front of one roulette only and say to yourself I will wait for 5 black and then I will bet red. You are not going to see those 5 black any time soon. Yet if you go across the floor you will find it very quickly all ready made in one of the other roulettes.
 The reason being you specified in advance, exactly what you want to see, and act after based on what you saw.
 An example will show you what I mean. In the Wiesbaden numbers I dot with blue  on the score card layout, every number that comes out. From 17 to 10 (within the blue border).
Reaching to number 10, we see that 4 Quads have not been marked. (Missing). Therefore  for 17 spins 4 quads did not show up. (Actually 3.5 quads because 2 of them share 2 numbers in the middle column).
With your reasoning we have 17 virtual losses of 3.5 quads.
it is tempting to start betting on them, but from experience those 17 misses might go up to 25-30 spins. And I have seen it many times in 3 quads.
Therefore those 17 virtual losses are not important to me at this point. 
If I wait for 8 more virtual losses is another story. Then I have very good chances to hit those quads.
In a different scenario being present in one roulette and choosing 3 quads in advance, there in no way in the world that these 3 quads will not show up for 17 spins.
So that's where my reasoning comes in. If I pick 3 random quads in advance and rotate randomly  any 3 quads after every spin, it is very rare to have 6 wrong predictions.
Therefore if I get 3 wrong predictions first (only 3  predefined Virtual losses), I will definitely start betting for 3 spins. Yet if I see 3 quads having had  17 virtual losses with the process of elimination, I will not do anything, until I see a few more
That my reasoning when I made the statement.
However there in a point where a set of virtual losses always qualifies,  even if they were not part of a predetermined scenario.
It all depends how many virtual losses have occurred. 10 black in a row qualifies if you are to bet red a few times after. 3 black does not qualify for betting purposes, because it is very common to see 3 black . 10 is not.
A  sector of 12 numbers missing for 6 spins is not a virtual loss  situation that requires immediate attention. But missing for 20 spins is.
Where  a predetermined sector that lost 6 virtual bets while I was waiting to happen, is a trigger to start betting.
It really all depends on how many virtual losses are required for every betting scenario.
By the way this a very effective system. Mark the numbers on the layout, and observe groups that are missing. 3 quads, 2 quads and a DS, 2 DS's, 4 streets etc. But not lose numbers or splits.
It's the same as underperforming sectors.

« Last Edit: June 06, 2017, 01:27:07 AM by palestis »
 
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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #27 on: June 06, 2017, 07:31:09 AM »
Thanks God.
Good Morning All.

Thanks Palestis, Kav and Terminator.

I want to share one of my experience at B&M.

One chinese guy who was playing multiple tables, saw that I am recording spins since hours, he asked me (in english) that what are two coldest numbers, I replied 0 and 17, 0 missing last 107 spins and 17 missing last 54 spins. He than started betting on 0 straight, first four, 17 straight, 16-18 street, 17 & 0 neighbors and sometimes he adds split to 17/0 numbers, with mild progression, he was playing with 2$ chips. I have noticed that after 20-30 spins he was up hundreds of dollars and he kept asking me for cold numbers. may be it is just luck but I liked his way of playing.

Somehow I think this experience relate to current discussion in this thread.

Love and Light
SugTips

 
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