Author Topic: Paras Paroli(my new paroli strategy)  (Read 16673 times)

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mogul397

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Re: Paras Paroli(my new paroli strategy)
« Reply #45 on: November 23, 2015, 08:56:30 PM »
I could be wrong, but it looks like those two links go to the same place.
So I guesss I am left with the same observation. It looks like someone is
trying to emplant a paroli into some short neg progressions and making
a ladder of the smaller progressions.

All the same, just negative progressions.  Hoping/needing for two consecutive wins?

Are we on the same page as to what we hoping to talk about.
Do you know what, in fact, the Guetting progression is? Cause it's nothing like this.
 

Reyth

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Re: Paras Paroli(my new paroli strategy)
« Reply #46 on: November 23, 2015, 10:44:15 PM »
Ok.  Well I have reviewed the progression and I know it doesn't work with certain types of sequences.  I thought that maybe if you reviewed the Carsch Star it might give you some ideas on how we might deal with those sequences and especially because it was inspired by the Paroli and (if I am correct?) you wish to combine both strategies?

Brainstorming was my intent. ; )
 

mogul397

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Re: Paras Paroli(my new paroli strategy)
« Reply #47 on: November 24, 2015, 02:33:03 AM »
So you have tested the Guetting progression ?

I don't remember you saying that.  I'm sure that it doesn't. The question is, of course,
how many it does or doesn't.

I have believed that there is a certain mind set or logic that people automatically
gravitate to in the persuit of a gaming system. And the nature of what that is, is
almost elusive enough to  not be able to define it.

Certainly it seems easy to see that "up as you lose" methods appeal to the methodological
ease and certainty of return.  And the idea of an up as you win method seems like a
course solution.

Another piece that may be a little easier to define is a simple fact that when you pick
any methodology of picking a bet, eventually the train is going to go into a free wheel
run.  And that that is the specific problem with all methods.

I know this sounds simple and basic.  But I have found that identifying a problem is the
easiest way to fix it. So on that point alone, I don't think that that position is that difficult
to stay away from. It seems like "comfortable" ways to pick bets is kind of easy. And just
avoid those bad runs.

To that end, from the "bad thinking" paradigm that I mention, the beginning of
a solution would be to alter how you are picking bets to not get into long losing streaks.
Sounds simple, I know.  But just think about the idea of, say, playing a martingale on
the "last result". It's  pretty good system.  Let say you're good for a run of 10.  That
hardly ever happenes. When it does, it JUST WON'T LET GO.  So using that simple ananlogy,
as you could use it on a chop that never ends,  staying out of those situations is what is needed.

The point I am making is that locking into a certain mechanical loop that doesn't change
is disaster. But tossing in some modification occasionally seems to make short work of
those bad runs that are few and far between. Yeah I know. The fickle finger, and all that.
But locking down no matter what the strategy is the beginning of what logic just tells us
to do.

And always by the time we get to the next "conclusion", without noticing that's where you
wind up. Like a magnet.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Paras Paroli(my new paroli strategy)
« Reply #48 on: November 24, 2015, 11:06:47 AM »
Ok so it sounds like you would be recommending:

a) A trigger system to limit potential successive bad runs
b) An exit strategy to limit the impact of the (now rarer) worst runs

Basically, limiting our chances and the impact of a bad/worst losing streak?

Since the basic progression has strict rules, it would make sense to program the system and see just what is the worst loss sequence we can expect (practically speaking) and also to indicate the percentages of each successively more common (and less severe) bad streak (a loss distribution chart).
« Last Edit: November 24, 2015, 11:10:32 AM by Reyth »
 

mogul397

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Re: Paras Paroli(my new paroli strategy)
« Reply #49 on: December 06, 2015, 01:18:48 PM »
Good response.

Let me pose this thought or idea.  I guess you could never say that tap dancing
is not a pat answer to anything in gambling.

Let's take the basic example of playing a method like this where you get a lot of
shots to win.  The mechanical basis of play ends up, sooner or later, giving you the losing
streak.  Like 10 red or black in a row.

Decades ago I remember saying to someone "A streak of 10 in a row always begins with 3 or 4."
That idea.

I don't like the idea of just playing all red or all black. It's a comfortable way to play, but
doesn't adapt. But lets say you did. Well at a certain point, say 4-5 losses, you take my previous
idea to heart. and you say, "I have 4 losses in a row. Maybe it's the time to "change up" just
to avoid 10 in a row".

That being said, I also am not an advocate of chasing something like that with a negative progression.  Remember the other side? This is it. So that's where we consider the up as you win method.

A 3rd side to this is the notion that a series of bets, say, do not (or should not be required to) resolve. That is to say, it should not be a requirement.  That requirement puts pressure on the system play and bank roll.  But one always seems to wind back up there. Going negative always seems to have the requirement of getting it all back THAT RUN.

I don't say that I have the absolute answer to these. But it is almost like a set of tools or wrenches. Maybe a different tool or idea is needed.  And all I'm saying is that what ever has been tried, it is always the easiest to wrap your head around to require these constraints.

There is often the thing where you say "this metho wins 9 out of 10 sessions". And the loss is about the same as the win, so you are winning. Just as an example.  Maybe that leeway needs to occur within a session, so as to not let these inevitable strings to not kill you.  By tap dancing, and/or also how you manage the session money and recoups.

Vague. But maybe a little clearer?  Some things are always just the same mistakes.  And those mistakes can be identified.  Change up a little, and not let that magnet pull your thinking back to that supposed comfort.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Paras Paroli(my new paroli strategy)
« Reply #50 on: December 06, 2015, 01:33:16 PM »
Right.  I have recently found that having a strict limit on raise attempts help to keep the losses low for easier recovery and forces me to follow that discipline.  Even though we win the vast majority of the time, 5 and 6 SD is out there and we need discipline in order to properly weather that storm.