### Author Topic: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression  (Read 1689 times)

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#### nickmsi

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##### Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« on: March 19, 2017, 08:42:49 PM »
“So, in my book, no matter the underlying probabilities, a game where you cannot make a single 100% certain prediction, in which every spin outcome is unpredictable, is a random game.”

Kav, I agree with your statement.

Every single spin will have independent or unpredictable outcome.

However, what Bayes may have been alluding to when he says “sequence of spins” or what I call a “group of spins”, we can put a “limit” on roulette and make it more predictable.

Let me rephrase this, each spin is independent and unpredictable, but each “group of spins” may not be.

Let me give you a quick example of “groups of spins” and “limits”

Van De Waerden, a Dutch Mathematician, has a theorem that basically says that in a “group of 9 spins” you will ALWAYS have a completed Arithmetic Progression.

This is a 100% certain prediction.

AP players use the Laws of Physics to make their bet selection.  I am suggesting we use the Laws of Math and Statistics to make our bet selection.

Nick
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 09:41:49 PM by kav »

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#### Reyth

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##### Re: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2017, 08:57:46 PM »
I'd like to study that "9 spin math"; is it available in English?
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 12:34:34 AM by Reyth »

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#### kav

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##### Re: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2017, 09:44:50 PM »
I found this:
According to the theorem there must be a repeat of the same chance at least three times in nine outcomes with the same distance between them and that is a fact.

Example : LLHHLLHLL

Nick is expert in this method.
I just copy from his .pdf
Van de Waerden Theorem
In a set of 9 spins there will ALWAYS be one
of the following 16 Arithmetic Progressions (AP)
An Arithmetic Progession is formed when the
the differencel between numbers is equal (constant).
1-2-3 the constant is 1.   2-4-6 it is 2.    1-4-7 is 3.
The 16 Arithmetic Progressions (AP) are:
1-2-3
2-3-4
1-3-5
3-4-5
4-5-6
2-4-6
5-6-7
1-4-7
3-5-7
6-7-8
2-5-8
4-6-8
7-8-9
1-5-9
3-6-9
5-7-9
RRR is an AP of 1-2-3
RBRBR is an AP of 1-3-5
BBRBRBR is an AP of 3-5-7
etc.

Nick you are welcome to post your .pdf here as well.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 09:58:56 PM by kav »

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#### Reyth

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##### Re: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2017, 12:36:26 AM »
1-2-3
1-3-5
1-4-7
1-5-9
2-3-4
2-4-6
2-5-8
3-4-5
3-5-7
3-6-9
4-5-6
4-6-8
5-6-7
5-7-9
6-7-8
7-8-9

5 32 34 32 14 36 25 13 22
L H H H L H H L H

So in this case LOW does not meet the theorem [1 5 8] but its opposite HIGH does with 2 3 4?

So our uncertainty will always be which one of the chances are going to meet the theorem?

I guess there is a technique where we play both theorems at once?

There appear to be "built in" triggers where one chance eliminates itself such as:

LHHHH <=== LOW can no longer provide a trigger

But the problem here is that HIGH has already produced one: 1 2 3
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 01:04:08 AM by Reyth »

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#### nickmsi

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##### Re: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2017, 04:09:59 AM »
Yes, Reyth, you are correct in that both H and L can form an AP.

The VDW only guarantees that at least one of them will form an AP in 9 spins.   However, you will often have more than one.

Further study will show that often both H and L can form an AP on the same spin.  I call this a Mutual Bet.

The whole point of the VDW and statistics is to get us to think about Bet Selections based on Non Random events rather than wait for 7 Reds then bet black or if you have more Red than Black bet for the imbalance to correct or to continue, wait for 8 unhit numbers then start betting for a repeat, etc,

Once you start developing systems based on Non Random events you can then develop further statistics to enhance the bet selection process.

Roulette is limited, let's use that to our advantage.

Cheers

Nick

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#### Real

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##### Re: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2017, 05:46:11 AM »
A progression alone can't give the player an edge.

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#### nickmsi

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##### Re: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2017, 02:17:17 PM »
Real, if you are referring to money management progressions, like Martingale, then I agree, they do not help.

What we are discussing here is an Arithmetic Progression which deals with obtaining a Bet Selection.

Cheers

Nick

#### Reyth

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##### Re: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2017, 04:26:26 PM »
It would take some work to create a software tracker for this but I was just wondering if there is ever a point in time where there is only one selection that can form an AP and it hasn't been formed yet?

#### Bayes

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##### Re: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2017, 04:58:44 PM »

There was some buzz around this last year at betselection .cc, but I never got around to doing any proper tests. Where do I get the pdf explaining the method?
« Last Edit: September 16, 2017, 02:05:51 AM by kav »

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#### nickmsi

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##### Re: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2017, 06:12:57 PM »
Yes, Reyth, we can wait for an AP to be made on the 9th spin only.  My test show this is possible but not practical as there are very few bets.

Kav, I have an Excel Tracker with extension .XLSX that I cannot upload. Kindly advise and I will upload it when the problem is fixed.

Bayes, this is not a system.  This is meant to show how we can use Non Random events (VDW) to make bet selections.  It is meant to show the "limits" of roulette.  It is meant to show how we can change our thinking from random systems to non-random systems, which in my opinion is the best way to achieve profitability.

Systems can be developed from the VDW and it's statistics but this tracker is not a system by itself.

Cheers

Nick

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#### Reyth

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##### Re: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2017, 06:20:53 PM »
If we watch all 3 EC's for the triggers it would make it more likely?  What about ALSO creating triggers from other bet selections on the inside?  For instance, 6 Streets will always equal an EC and there are HUNDREDS of them!

On the .xls, I would recommend you change the extension on the file to .txt and then when we d/l it, we change the extension back to .xls

#### TheGenner

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##### Re: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2017, 08:48:41 PM »
It's easy to make mistakes when first looking at this. Here is a little chart which tells you what AP combinations can appear during the 9 spins.

Spin 3 = 123
Spin 4 = 234
Spin 5 = 345, 135
Spin 6 = 456, 246
Spin 7 = 567, 357, 147
Spin 8 = 678, 468, 258
Spin 9 = 789, 579, 369, 159

16 AP combinations in total.

#### Reyth

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##### Re: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2017, 09:17:21 PM »
Ok that chart looks very helpful.  Now apparently Nick has said that the only time there is only 1 selection that can make an AP is on a rolling 8 spins; I can check HUNDREDS of EC selections (18 numbers) for these rolling 8 spins!

#### nickmsi

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##### Re: Van De Waerden - Arithmetic Progression
« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2017, 10:49:28 PM »
Hi Reyth,

I have tried to load the tracker with an extension of .txt but still unable to get it attached.

I did not mean to imply that you can test this on a rolling basis and come up with only one AP to be formed.  There is no guaranteed AP to be formed. There is no 100% solution for a winner. The mutual bet and double chops are it's nemesis.

My point of posting in the other thread was to show the limits of roulette and to show another way of getting your bet selections, a way based on Math and Statistics instead of randomness.

Cheers

Nick

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#### kav

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