Author Topic: Trading on the financial Market?  (Read 4544 times)

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MrPerfect.

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re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #30 on: February 21, 2017, 01:43:27 AM »
 Trading is simply scarry.  It's terrifying in its nature. There are bears there. Bears allow bulls to grow fatty before slotering them.
  On other hand, exotic options is the same as trading, but short time. It's like in roulette , you can loose only money you bet, not all your bankroll in one spin.  Edge is essential obviously. ..
 

Geoffrey

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #31 on: February 22, 2017, 11:10:32 AM »
To be a succesfull trader it al comes down to this : It aint about how hard you hit, its about how hard you can get hit, and keep moving forward. Yeah i know it's a quote from rocky balboa, buts its so spot on.

Anohter quote thats not difficult to comprehend, but is pretty good advice comes from Jesse livermore: There are times to go long, there are time to go short, and there are times to go fishing. Seems simple to do but many dont apply this.

Most of traders seem to be pushed to get in the market, just because they got the feeling 'i'm not working to earn my money'.

To be honest, sometimes doing nothing is wise. If the market doesn't give you good opportunities, why the hell should you make a trade? Do a trade when it's worth it. Oterwise stay away.

Not losing a trade , makes you win money too , in a way.

Now some practical advise:

 1) A trade shouldn't be more than 1 to 2 % of you capital.

Most dont stick to this advice, when a string of losses occur, they tend to risk more to recover the losses.
In fact that is like not wanting to take the hits and force your way through. I repeat this is NOT how things are done.
Take the hit, accept the loss. stick to your gameplan. there will be losses, accept them. you"ll get winnings to. if you act disciplined. your winnings will get the upperhand in de long term.

2) dont trade on feeling or intuition, the market has its own mind, trust on that.

meaning, if a trade doesnt fit your trading criteria dont take it. when it does, TAKE IT, dont go saying 'hmmm looks ok , but i got a bad feeling about this one. Feelings dont make you win in this business.

3) put a stop loss immediatly after you made a trade. this may seem naturally but many traders dont do this. Most of them are fixated on the price they wanna get and if the trade doesn't go well, they simply make anohter trade.

see where i'm getting with this, its like spinning the wheel over and over again and thinking 'this time i'll get it'. In fact the only thing you are doing is empty your own pockets faster then you intented to.

4) when to get in and get out

we are programmed of fear to lose, and hoping to win. This human nature makes us mistime our entries and exits.

same happens with gamblers in casino. when we are in losing position we try to recover using a type of progression. letting our losses run in the hope the progression will fix it in the end.

what you have to do is going against this nature. Cut your losses short  (stop loss)and let your profits run.

Most traders do the reserve uncounsiencely. And that's why they lose.

Now. Question is how far can i let my proftis run? cant answer that. Its a matter of expierence.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 11:15:46 AM by Geoffrey »
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #32 on: February 22, 2017, 12:21:52 PM »
 "How far to let it ride" is very interesting qwestion.
  As l understood, there are methods to qualify trends by their direction ( +;-), momentum, consistency. ... ets. Need to test specific triggers for entry and exit points. But in short , logic is simple, when it's low- buy, when high - sell.
    Trend is qualified as " repetitive behavior ower time consistently".  If it's up trend , it will produce higher ups followed by higher lows. Trend breaks when both of these assumptions are broken, one of assumptions broken can be signal to pay attention.... as with everything with market, you pay for confirmation. How much you pay, will depend on individual capability to devise good strategy and perform proper study of market.
    There are  math tools to pay less for errors..  make gradual entry/ exit points for example.
 Entry slow exit qweak... ets.
    It's not that lm expert of markets or whatever... it's just same thing as roulette bankroll grouth study. Many things do make a sense , they are logical and sound..  however looks like in both worlds ( markets and roulette), people just do not pay attention to the basics

 

Geoffrey

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #33 on: February 22, 2017, 01:36:03 PM »
Anyone who tends to try trading, first mistake they make is, getting into it unprepared. They pay learning money the hard way.

Thats why it is so important to have a good platform to work from, which also has some educational background.
Why would anyone start to trade if you haven't tested anything beforehand?

To be able to do 'papertrading'has a lot of value. Certainly when you can do backtest over a period of several years.
most of the the platform produces the outcome automaticly. but that doesn't give as a true image about how strong or weak our potential strategy is. Because those results are like done by someone with no emotion, a robot if you like. you have do it manually by hand. this will take you a while. But it will give you a better view on the possible drawbacks that could occur.

As you stated in your previous response, when fear, greed, hope comes into play , many forget the basics.

Having a good system looks like this: Easy to crasp (KISS) no need for 25 indicators, no need for 5 screens to look at. (This is totally unnecessary, its just for show and to show of) 2 screens is more than enough. when you are not that expierenced even one screen is all you need

Second thing, it has to deliver consistent results. no very deep drawbacks, and no skyrocking targets.

Most important is getting a crasp of how the market works, and gain knowledge of that market. The more expierenced you get. You''l know when to trade and when to go fish.

Someone who blindfully trust his indicators wont succeed. because of the fact that even thou our indicators could say , here is a trend to go long. many times to trend goes against you. So traders who only trust upon technical indicators will end up failing.

the point is, dont put money on the table before you know your strategy is solid and it can take many hits.

Stick with basic knowledge apply it (which seems hard for most people, because it goes against our nature, which is psychological hard to handle)
do not overcomplicate things, KISS.
gain expierence, go test to the fullest by papertrading. Eventually you will come up with a plan that suits you.
Oh and one more thing. Do not overuse the possibilties the stockmarket has to offer. When a trader is succesfull on something, stick to that. Most do several things, some are good other are bad , the outcome is that things will get balanced out, and in the end you will not be profitable. So dont go doing, cruid oil, binary options, forex, indexing, funds, bonds, etfs, or cfd-ing. stick to something that seem to work for you and hold on to that.

To end off, here are some other intersting quotes

'the first rule in trading is not to lose money, the second rule is not forgetting the first one'

'Its when the tide goes, that we discover who has been swimming naked'

'wall street people never learn and forget everything'
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 08:25:46 PM by Geoffrey »
 
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Shadowman

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #34 on: February 22, 2017, 11:58:20 PM »
The way that I understand it to win at trading or roulette you need some kind of edge. From what I have read about trading there are the equivalent of AP players in roulette, i.e. Those who have a genuine edge.  What I can't understand is that the advice within the trading community is generally don't trade too much.......why???

Surely if you have a true edge you should be trading more often as in the long run you will win.

Geoffrey I am curious to know what is the premise of your edge, could you not trade a roulette chart in the same manner as a trader would a stock chart?

At mr Perfect, regarding where you exit.  I believe that assuming you set a stop loss then give yourself a target of at least double that and when that target is hit you pull out of the trade, regardless of whether it continues.  You will find that in general that it won't continue more than it does.  From my experiments, in the long run you end up no better off chasing the trend than if you set realistic targets and stick to them......but then it depends on what your edge is.  Trading literature can be quite aloof when discussing some kind of proven advantage that can be found.

Mike
 

Reyth

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #35 on: February 23, 2017, 12:18:05 AM »
I think the advice is normally "don't stay in the market if your goal for entering is not being met".  If the advice is to limit trading, I would think the only reason would be sharpness of mind and the effects of fatigue.

I guess AP players are "fundamental" traders?  Their charting uses entirely different criteria than "technical" traders (system players).

I have always liked the advice that says, "Let the market take you out" and synch up the stop loss as the trend moves; this is due to the necessity of maximizing profit & minimizing loss on every trade (mini-max).

I now personally think (I didn't used to) that the similarities between roulette and trading are only on the surface because random based outcomes are different than human transaction based outcomes.  Maybe the only similarity would be with AP players?

Sure, we start betting and end betting & charts can be made of this but Tickseeker showed that random flow is really different than transactional flow.  If charting is to work for roulette system players, it must be able to accurately depict statistical extremes.

I think Bayes has made headway in this, here:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1338.msg18974#msg18974

See how the x-o output is actually a chart.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2017, 12:22:00 AM by Reyth »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #36 on: February 23, 2017, 01:13:46 PM »
 There are qwestions to be answered... they are same as with roulette. It's what , where , when and so on...
 Markets do have variables ( covered in technical analisys), markets do have tendencies ( fundamental analisys)... ets. Have to account for these.
    No point in trading without clear definition what one would exploit there. Edge in trading coming from clear understanding of what one is supposed to do when... 1..2..3...
    It's a zero sum market. Means for you  to win something, someone has to loose something.
  Prices are not stable, they adjust and hoover around averages. Determining clearly where the average is the best that trader can hope for.
   No point to trade just for a sake of trading, need to have some objective in mind. If trader can not see clear objective to make a transaction, what is a point to make one?
 
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Geoffrey

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #37 on: February 23, 2017, 04:56:40 PM »
some interersting replies

But first i got a couple of questions for you

1)Which is easier to beat? the financial market or a game called roulette?

I'll give you some figures.

we all know were roulette will bring you if you play it day in day out year in year out.

Now how about shares?

Over a period of 100 years shares give you an average profit of 6%. This includes marketcrashes in de periode of the 20-30 (great depression) and the bank crisis in 2008.

2) if a method proves to be profitable in the long term , how much would you be willing to pay for it, to get your hands on it and start to study it.

Just curious about that.

Me and my trading buddy are attending tradingschool in 2018. the objective would be to find out why our method seems to be working as a charm on European markets. But doesn't work on the US. + there is clame that it is possible to put together a longterm portofolio which extends 10% yearly profit. This with little effort. A few hours a year till 10 max, is more than enough. This sounds very interesting to me, so gonna check that out.

And we all know the US market is where the money is, so as a trader to master that part should be your primary and in fact only objective. Maybe a few adjustment would suffice to get our method up and running on the US market , but for now we seem to overlook something.

Anyway, a couple of days back someone asks me which books are to be red. But as i'm not an expert on US market i dont have English books. So i couldn't give a straight answer.

What i do know is there a lot of crap around (books, internet), and this got us thinking.

What if we could get together all the stuff a trader needs to know, and cut off al the mambo jambo that doesn't mather. Nobody would ever need to buy several books about the subject, cause all there is to know, would be assembled in just one book.

Combine that with video tutorials ,where you can see us trade live , give you real trade examples,

First idea was to do this local , as i'm not from a anglo saxon country, the english books were not a priority.

But come to think about it. we could reach a lot more people this way. so i've already started my research on this.

Gonna stop here for now, have folks coming over which can arrive any minute. I'll reply back on previous posts later this evening
 
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scepticus

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #38 on: February 23, 2017, 04:59:32 PM »
Interesting thread Geof.
Like roulette trading there are many "Systems" .Much depends on the individual's Psyche in both.
Trading requires a much bigger "bankroll" than roulette  which explains why there are more roulette players than Traders.
As you say both require that you fully understand the Game before risking real money  and a Plan is better than betting haphazardly.
I am not too keen on  establishing an "Edge". This depends on an Assumption which may turn out to be false . No  Assumption or Edge can allow for an Extreme Event  and Extreme Events cannot be predicted  with certainty.. The many Financial disasters are testament to that fact though there are many "proofs" made in hindsight .
Good Luck with your betting.
 

Geoffrey

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #39 on: February 25, 2017, 02:39:58 PM »
i promised to get back at this. sorry for the delay.

So here we go,

At shadowman: Why not trade to much? well in fact Reyth answered that beautifully.

Yeah indeed its mostly about anti fatigue measures and sharpness of mind.

The market can fluctuate in matther of seconds. Your concentration has to be 200%, and execute the trade fast.

If you're doing trade after trade all day long, you'll start off doing things on semi auto pilot. Mistakes will be made.

It often is said that if you are right 6 times out of 10 you are considered an expert. Most wont even get 5/10. but in fact this stated is just a lot of crap.

Doesn't matter how succesfull your hit ratio is. what matters is, when you hit it right, you have to make it count.

to simplify this. just take a roulette example. what do you gain if we got Ec's right 6 out of 10?
what do we gain if we get a single bet right 1 out of 20?

So hit ratio isn't important at all.

So you ask about my edge. well it's not about which trade i do exactly or how many times i'm right or wrong.
as stated in a previous post. its about how many you can take and keep moving  forward.

My money management is so strong in a way that it can take a lot. And that is what makes a good trader.

Believe it or not, main concern for a serious trader is what to do to not lose his capital. he'll only trade when the conditions are met which indicate that the chances of losing his trade are very slim, and when it does lose, it hardly affects his capital.

a inexperienced trader will think , how can i win. I think you see the difference.

Everybody is an financial expert in a bull market. But when the market turns against you, then you get to see which ones are good traders, and which have just had some luck previously

Lets take my own trading situation as an example. the months november, december, just gave me crap on the market. i've endured a string of losses, and the good trades were very average. But still manages to balance my capital.

The mounth january i got 3 beautifull trades. I only needed one the balance out all previous losses. so the other two were net profit. Now the month february is almost over. hasnt been a great month either. and that what makes it hard also.

the discipline, and the patience. sometimes its harder than you think. But its well worth it. i only need a couple of strong hits a month to get nice profit and thats what counts.

if been papertrading for 3 years, and 2 years with real money. in these past 60 months i only had 2 months with a net loss. and these were so small that it didn't even bother me a bit.

Many beginners would say, i'm not expierenced enough, but i'm interested so, he's paying a bank advisor for his service to guide him through.

To be honest. you are better of educating yourself instead of putting your money in the hands of someone else. Bank advisors will tell you that gaining a yearly profit of 10% is a great result.

Let me tell you this , 10% profit on yearly basis , thats an amateur talking.

at Reyth: I like the way you think. You could become a good trader if you would get serious about it. But i guess the fascinating game called roulette takes away much of your time :)

you are correct concerning why not overdoing the amount of trades to be done daily. Less is more principle for reasons i explaned above.

About technical vs fundamental analysis, best way to go is use both.

about the randomness in roulette and financial market. seems like you get it.

its not the same kind of randomness . What does make the market move? Rumors. Speculations, actions made by traders, make a course chance. so yess, financial market can get random, but its al based on human actions.

in roulette the outcomes wont be affected by the players decission.

At mr perfect: Correct it clearly comes down to understanding the market, and knowing what to do in different scenarios. You got to know when tot rade, when to back off, which trades are worth taking. And most importantly. When you are doing a trade, reflect on how it can influence your bankroll. All this is the hard part.
That’s where i’m strong at, doesn’t matter that much for me if a taken trade is losing, and even so if a losing streak appears, where the market is clearly going against me. My capital/ bankroll can handle it. i only need a couple of good trades.

To explain this the roulette way, it’s like playing a single bet flat betting, and the number hits 5% of the time on a continous basis. You see , no worries there.
The reason why i’m not able to fully be able to live from trading is because of what sceps has mentioned. It’s easier to start of with a higher bankroll. But its not a premise to be succesfull.
To simplify this, lets just look at this the roulette way.
I do reinvest my profits by buying new contracts. The more contracts you have. The stronger your position gets.
Its the same with roulette. Having more contracts simply means to push on higher stakes in roulette
1 contract could be : 1 point = 1 euro. If you have 10 contracts , 1 point would represent 10 euro’s.
So the amount of contracts you have equals your betting size in roulette. Knowing that you betting size may not expand 1-2% of your bankroll. It safe to say when you’re able to higher your stakes (contracts) without taking more risk.

Thats one reason why i’m not able to live from trading succes only. I’ll have to buy more and more contracts to get a stronger position. This simply needs time. So thats why having a higher starting bankroll/ capital does save you lot of time.
The second reason is that i focus only on european market because i fully understand it.
Asian market i do have tested and could be interesting but its to time consuming cause its out of my timezone, so i does affect my sleeping hours a lot. Which could have a big influence on my trades in terms of lack of rest i could get slappy. So i simply dropped it.

To be able to get were i want to be, i’ll have to jump on the US market. So i’m doing the same research i did on european markets. And thats why i’ll be attending trading school, because the trading principles taught over there focus on us market only.
My trading plan as it is right now doesn’t work as it should on US, mostly because of the volatility. Its much harder to get well positioned over and over again in US market.

Once this ‘US problem’ is solved and i’m getting more and more contracts in. I wouldnt have any concern about getting a dayjob.

Isn’t this everybodies dream?? To be financially independend, not be pushed to work your ass off for some asshole boss to get a salary which aint high enough to live comfortly.
Be your own boss, without the need to work for it for 12 hours a day.
In fact i only spend 4 hours a day max on trading activities. So i do have a lot of free time. Although part of that free time goes in research to even get better.

At scepticus: indeed, the psyh is extremely important. Tobe succesful, you got to adjust you mindset in a way that it aint used too. Many people fail because this aspect is to hard on them.
You dont necessisarly need a huge bankroll, but it sure is handy. Although many would say its appropirate to have a capital between 25 and 50K, I’ve personally started with only 5k and doing just fine. Having a higher bankroll does save you time.

A plan sure is indespensable. Searching for one that is profitable without neglecting the important basics, is the hard part and very time consuming. But when that is done. It all comes down to apply it, and having the patience and discipline not to deviate from it.
As explaned above my edge isn’t about an assumption of which trade to take. I dont assume anything at all. I just let the market do its thing. The beauty of it is, it doesn’t matter much what the market decides to do. I know i’ll stay in front in the end.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #40 on: February 25, 2017, 03:06:32 PM »
Grats Geoffrey!  More power to you!  I became enthralled with roulette once I discovered how fast you can make money and I haven't been able to shake that bug.
 
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Geoffrey

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #41 on: February 25, 2017, 09:09:37 PM »
Perfectly understanable Reyth. Roulette is a fascinating game :)
 

Jake007

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #42 on: March 03, 2017, 11:56:35 PM »
I dont remember see this "other topics" folder, but here I am. I trade stocks, but am well invested in bitcoin also. Almost all of my trading knowledge come from trading bitcoin.

I am self taught and learned all bout technical indicators using a free school website called babypips dot com. Its for forex trading but you can apply the knowledge to anything... forex, crypto currencies, stocks, etc. You'll learn all the basics about technical indicators as well as other important info. The more you learn indicators like MACD, EMA, Stochastics, PSAR, etc. you'll gravitate to one that make the most sense to you and once you master them, trading becomes easy. I have my own favorite indicators and use them in conjunction for buying and selling points.

I trade bitcoin because the up and down waves are more typical, whereas stocks could be quite jagged (unless you are investing big bluechip stocks). However IMO blue chip stocks dont get the big gains like you do with bitcoin in such a short amount of time.

Best site for using technical indicators for me is TradingView dot com. Great site. Tons of indicators. Great community there too. They also chart cryptos like bitcoin, litecoin, etc. Also commodities, indexes, forex, you name it.
 
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Geoffrey

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #43 on: March 05, 2017, 11:07:56 PM »
Nice to see someone is actually trading. Thanks for sharing your thouts and insights.

gonna have a look at the names you mentioned. my focus aint on forex and aint into bitcoin . But as you say, you just have to find which part of the markets suites you best as a trader.

I intent to write a excessive book about trading. Combined with a educational program.

Maybe because i'm the kind of guy, always wanting to help people.
 

scepticus

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #44 on: March 06, 2017, 12:57:53 AM »
Will you be charging for the book and/or the educational programme, Geoff  ?
 
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