Author Topic: Traders at the roulette table  (Read 2383 times)

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tickseeker

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #30 on: December 28, 2016, 05:26:56 PM »
Meh.  You're hallucinating.  Remember the white noise pictures you posted?  There is no difference between the micro and the macro -- day trading is not random like roulette; you proved that!

Hallucinating. Haha :D . That was good one !

Well did you see my fineprint (btw) ?

I am talking about very short term trends which are similar here and there. There is a lot more of technical stuff which does not work here because the lack of human influence. This is what you can see from those noise pictures.

That was the case hope you got it now.

Edit
I've found some very interesting stuff here with trends. Lot of work to do !
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 05:36:36 PM by tickseeker »
 
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kav

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #31 on: December 28, 2016, 05:34:09 PM »
I've found some very interesting stuff here with trends. Lot of work to do !

Hey tickseeker,
I'm very glad you found useful stuff here. Would you care to share some links to the posts or topics you found interesting. There is a lot of stuff here and it can easily be lost in the ocean of topics. it is very useful to reference relevant posts.

Thanks
 

tickseeker

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #32 on: December 28, 2016, 05:35:49 PM »
I've found some very interesting stuff here with trends. Lot of work to do !

Hey tickseeker,
I'm very glad you found useful stuff here. Would you care to share some links to the posts or topics you found interesting. There is a lot of stuff here and it can easily be lost in the ocean of topics. it is very useful to reference relevant posts.

Thanks

Sorry I mean: Here = at roulette table = roulette numbers.

As said these short streaks which can be found in random roulette numbers are so close to tick-by-tick data from many trading instruments that it will be a small miracle if these numbers cannot be traded. But it will not be an easy task. Will need lot of skill to succeed.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 05:40:17 PM by tickseeker »
 
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tickseeker

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #33 on: December 28, 2016, 05:57:28 PM »
For the trained eyes this short example picture tells the situation very well



In fact in this particurlary situation the random data is more readable :D
 

Reyth

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #34 on: December 28, 2016, 06:05:07 PM »
lol ikr?  I actually suspected for a moment that you switched the labels!

I have difficulty finding a clear trend in the FDAX but I CAN find one (albeit quite small gains) in the RND.

See, here's what our critics won't tell you because they refuse to think this way:

If we can configure spin sequences in a relatively rare and unique way, we should be able to observe defined charting behaviors subsequent to those sequences.

I think that's the goal because otherwise we will have too many reversals to make our chart interpretation profitable.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 06:08:41 PM by Reyth »
 

tickseeker

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #35 on: December 28, 2016, 06:28:30 PM »
One very important thing here is that in RND there is NO SLIPPAGE. This is very VERY EXREMELY VERY important thing while scalping short term which makes me very excited. Another thing is that you have decade time to do your next move between the new data points. In dax movement is often 1/1000 second so impossible to trade manually. And now we are talking tick data here.

Fortunately I do algos too (semi HFT).
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 08:22:13 PM by tickseeker »
 

tickseeker

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #36 on: December 28, 2016, 06:39:31 PM »
lol ikr?  I actually suspected for a moment that you switched the labels!

Hehe.  It's fallacy. If I remember right it was Steven Jobbs who did a random song plays for his iPod and it was based on "real" random selection. And as we know in random there can be very long streaks of the same. Eventually he had to change the algorithm to output more "random" and people were satisfied  :D
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 06:52:46 PM by tickseeker »
 

Reyth

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #37 on: December 28, 2016, 06:57:31 PM »
lol "more random" hilarious!

Ya but even though I can study the chart for an hour before each tick & I will get 100% of any monetary amount I wish upon "exiting", NOTHING can substitute for a significant decrease in trend reversals due to favorable & predicatble "market forces".
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 07:00:14 PM by Reyth »
 

tickseeker

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #38 on: December 28, 2016, 07:07:12 PM »
Btw. I got ready my extensions for the platform so I can now trade systems too. I searched this site for some system which is easy to implement and found that Roman Cohort. I am not going to trade these kind of systems so this was just an example to test these extensions.

Here is the output of the cumulative outcome:


(Y-axis is Units)

Here is the logic if someone is interested in:
Code: newbielink:javascript:void(0); [nonactive]
for(i=bi; i<=ei; i++) {
  // Add a new soldier
  x = int(n/3); y = n % 3;
  Coh[x*3+y] += 1; b += 1;
  // Update previous rows
  for(j=0; j<x; j++) {
    Coh[j*3+y] += 1;
    b += 1;
  }
  // Calculate result
  q = a_x[i] - 1;
  if(q > -1 && q <= n) {
    ir = Coh[q] * 36 - b;
    n = 0; b = 0; Coh = 0;
  }
  else {
    n += 1;
    ir = -b;
  }
  r[i] = r[i-1] + ir;
}

[not bug tested]

btw. that output is trending beautifully too but drawdowns are frightening so some kind of stoploss management could be wise to implement :o
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 07:21:54 PM by tickseeker »
 
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