Author Topic: bias and methods tolk. ...  (Read 1824 times)

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scepticus

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bias and methods tolk. ...
« on: September 02, 2016, 01:27:06 PM »
Mr. Perfect
How different is your idea/s of AP from others  such as Bebedictus,. Real  or any other AP  ?


 

MrPerfect.

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2016, 03:12:02 PM »
Mr. Perfect
How different is your idea/s of AP from others  such as Bebedictus,. Real  or any other AP  ?
ideas are same. These 2 whom you mentioned were big help , so methods l use are very related.
     Differences are minor and are dictated by practicability or types of wheels that are targeted.
  For example, Real has help ( l don't ) , so he can use longer datasets obtained with help of his team members. . Ets.
 

scepticus

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2016, 04:37:44 PM »
Mr. Perfect
How different is your idea/s of AP from others  such as Bebedictus,. Real  or any other AP  ?
ideas are same. These 2 whom you mentioned were big help , so methods l use are very related.
     Differences are minor and are dictated by practicability or types of wheels that are targeted.
  For example, Real has help ( l don't ) , so he can use longer datasets obtained with help of his team members. . Ets.

Just as I thought. AP has little variation .The only real difference I see is between using a computer and not using a computer.
Real told me before that he works as a member of a team. I wonder if he made that plain in his book ? Using teamwork means that more needs to be won as compared to an individual working on his own.
No matter if alone or teamwork  I still think you  guys cannot make yourself " Invisible " !
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2016, 04:54:16 PM »
Mr. Perfect
How different is your idea/s of AP from others  such as Bebedictus,. Real  or any other AP  ?
ideas are same. These 2 whom you mentioned were big help , so methods l use are very related.
     Differences are minor and are dictated by practicability or types of wheels that are targeted.
  For example, Real has help ( l don't ) , so he can use longer datasets obtained with help of his team members. . Ets.

Just as I thought. AP has little variation .The only real difference I see is between using a computer and not using a computer.
Real told me before that he works as a member of a team. I wonder if he made that plain in his book ? Using teamwork means that more needs to be won as compared to an individual working on his own.
No matter if alone or teamwork  I still think you  guys cannot make yourself " Invisible " !
if wheel is beatable, it's due to sertain physical caracteristics... whatever method used , it should account for these. It makes methods look similar,  differences will be at the level of polishing the method but not at the prinzhyp used.
   Other thing is how proficient method user is in his method.
  With the team is more easy to be " invisible ", opportunity will last longer. Individual player is more likely to go after the kill.... it's due to effort involved for data gathering and analysis,  for one its more difficult then for a team.
 

scepticus

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2016, 05:27:14 PM »
Mr. Perfect
How different is your idea/s of AP from others  such as Bebedictus,. Real  or any other AP  ?
ideas are same. These 2 whom you mentioned were big help , so methods l use are very related.
     Differences are minor and are dictated by practicability or types of wheels that are targeted.
  For example, Real has help ( l don't ) , so he can use longer datasets obtained with help of his team members. . Ets.

Just as I thought. AP has little variation .The only real difference I see is between using a computer and not using a computer.
Real told me before that he works as a member of a team. I wonder if he made that plain in his book ? Using teamwork means that more needs to be won as compared to an individual working on his own.
No matter if alone or teamwork  I still think you  guys cannot make yourself " Invisible " !
if wheel is beatable, it's due to sertain physical caracteristics... whatever method used , it should account for these. It makes methods look similar,  differences will be at the level of polishing the method but not at the prinzhyp used.
   Other thing is how proficient method user is in his method.
  With the team is more easy to be " invisible ", opportunity will last longer. Individual player is more likely to go after the kill.... it's due to effort involved for data gathering and analysis,  for one its more difficult then for a team.

So. how many "trials" are needed to determine if a wheel is biased ?
 

Bebediktus

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2016, 05:49:24 PM »
I not think he play bias at all.
At least if he do that, then that is not esential only for some help.
If to play bias then he can not talk about wheel speeds adjustings....
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2016, 07:25:11 PM »
 Scepticus, there are different types of biases...
 Vb itself is a part of bias play. In case of Vb we assume presence of drop point bias or track bias.. ets.
   To play seriously need to achieve high confidence factor, it's math limit beyond wich phenomenon observed starts to be statistically significant.  For example,  you can see in 10 spins ball coming 6 times to same diamond, but you will need at least 50 spins to confirm such ratio.... if you wanna be sure,  150 spins...
 

scepticus

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2016, 08:07:58 PM »
Scepticus, there are different types of biases...
 Vb itself is a part of bias play. In case of Vb we assume presence of drop point bias or track bias.. ets.
   To play seriously need to achieve high confidence factor, it's math limit beyond wich phenomenon observed starts to be statistically significant.  For example,  you can see in 10 spins ball coming 6 times to same diamond, but you will need at least 50 spins to confirm such ratio.... if you wanna be sure,  150 spins...

So, just like Method Players , you rely on " Assumptions " ? 
Yes, there are different biases but they all lead to the same conclusion -a section of the wheel that produces more wins than it should according to " The  Maths " .
The Bottom Line for me is the only thing that really counts as proof .Not theoretical maths .I don't see where AP actually  shows a greater profit than Method. One thing you guys  avoid telling us is " How many chips  you actually win " and " What is your Table Bankroll " ?
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2016, 08:35:58 PM »
 I think l mentioned it somewhere already...
 My bank is normally 80- 200 chips for vb, or more... it depends on type of game l have to play.
  Vb or bias is a method itself . It rely on asumptions,  however we can see when these asumptions stop to correspond to curgent situation and adjust. Often even during current spin. Not much difference between system players or AP. Both risk, but only AP has reasonably addressed ( good AP) this risk and calculated it.
 

scepticus

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2016, 09:06:36 PM »
Nice  to hear that an AP admits that he faces risk. Most AP here think that what they consider their advantage has no risk. They think that having an  advantage has no risk.
I don't agree that only AP has reasonably addressed the risk and calculated it.
It would be interesting to know just how you calculate risk . Does this not depend your assumption/s and , if so, why cannot Method Players calculate risk based on their assumption/s ?
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2016, 09:14:26 PM »
 AP looks situations where posible negative  variance can not obiterate his edge. System player in case of negative variance doomed, AP looses time and has lower chips/ hour ratio.
  Other thing is AP has more control ower situation due to forcast ability and control over variables. If situation stope to be favorable, AP stop playing. System player doesn't  have forcast ability and does not have control over variables governing the game, so he doesn't  know when to avoid playing. That's all.
 

Real

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2016, 10:38:51 PM »
Quote
So. how many "trials" are needed to determine if a wheel is biased ?

None
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2016, 10:54:38 PM »
I not think he play bias at all.
At least if he do that, then that is not esential only for some help.
If to play bias then he can not talk about wheel speeds adjustings....
Yes, absolutely true. I look for bias ( numbers) as inconvenience  ( one more thing to acount for) till the moment l understand how to use it in my favor during my vb practice ( if posible).
   Presence of sector bias can sometimes provoke very serious damage for vb player. It may unnecessary extend dispersion of relative distances ( from prediction to outcome).
 

scepticus

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2016, 01:44:03 AM »
Quote
So. how many "trials" are needed to determine if a wheel is biased ?

None
So how do you determine bias ?
 

scepticus

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Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2016, 01:51:17 AM »
I not think he play bias at all.
At least if he do that, then that is not esential only for some help.
If to play bias then he can not talk about wheel speeds adjustings....
Yes, absolutely true. I look for bias ( numbers) as inconvenience  ( one more thing to acount for) till the moment l understand how to use it in my favor during my vb practice ( if posible).
   Presence of sector bias can sometimes provoke very serious damage for vb player. It may unnecessary extend dispersion of relative distances ( from prediction to outcome).

You say bias is inconvenient for vb player . How can you not predict when bias is present ?
Method players have forecast ability but , unlike AP , we don't claim infallibility .