Author Topic: Can a computer predict randomness?  (Read 1472 times)

Romn.Paras

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Can a computer predict randomness?
« on: July 31, 2016, 06:20:00 AM »
Hello Friends.

I came across this article and was interested in sharing it with all of you.  Do you think a computer or program can  actually predict randomness?  Roulette is a game of pure randomness.  I am a brick and mortar roulette player. I have been for years.  I am not too familiar with computer programs and I don't play roulette for money online.  Do you think that a computer roulette game can tell what other people are betting on the table and make its decisions based on the bets on the table, and not the actual act of randomness?   Here is the article I was reading.

I would be interested to hear your thoughts.

http://engineering.mit.edu/ask/can-computer-generate-truly-random-number [nofollow]



 
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Reyth

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Re: Can a computer predict randomness?
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2016, 07:21:20 AM »
1) Can a computer program generate numbers based on what players are betting rather than pure random numbers?

2) Can a computer "predict randomness"?

The answer to both questions is "yes".

I believe that even if a casino is audited for randomness they can still "fudge the numbers" and it will be undetectable from the results.  The only way that auditing can catch that is if the code itself is audited as well as the results.

The concept of randomly generated numbers is often misunderstood by very many to mean something that cannot be predicted because there is no specific cause or reason behind the way those numbers are chosen; i.e. there is an equal chance of each number appearing and therefore no predictions can be made.

This is a fallacy.  The concept of "equal chances" is a specific cause!  It creates patterns and has practical limits which can be observed and acted upon with relative certainty.  Everyone admits that these patterns and limits exist but so many refuse to draw the necessary conclusions regarding practically applying that objective reality in actually analyzing the random output in roulette.  This is due mostly to peer pressure but there are other causes as well.

The concept of "true random" must mean "according to observable laws and principles" otherwise it isn't true random!  I don't believe in chaos regardless of so many of those that demand I must or renounce my sanity.  I believe in what I can see and prove and not what others tell me must exist and what I must believe.  Like all truly principled scientists, this also means that I do believe in God and just as God exists, so do governing principles in random results -- random is not chaos!!!
« Last Edit: July 31, 2016, 07:28:53 AM by Reyth »
 
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Romn.Paras

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Re: Can a computer predict randomness?
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2016, 08:13:36 PM »
Hi Reyth,

So good to chat with you again.  Always nice to hear your insights on this matter. I not very computer savoy, so I leave those observations to people who work with computers extensively. Is it possible the computer can actually do both?  Predict patterns and Predict randomness?  I know computers are programmed by people, and I know a computer is only as good as the person who can program it. I know human beings cannot predict randomness.  You are right, Randomness is not chaos. Here is a tidbit I read about this phenomena

There is frequent confusion between chaos and randomness. There are some similarities in the nature of chaotic and random system, but there are also some fundamental differences.
A random sequence of events is one in which anything that can ever happen, can happen next. A familiar example serving as a paradigm of randomness is the toss of a coin. Here either heads or tails, the only two things that can ever happen, can happen in the next throw. The probability of throwing a heads on the next toss is the same as in any other toss. Knowing in addition the outcome of last toss, cannot increase our chances of guessing the outcome of next toss.
On the other end, chaos consists of things that are actually not random, but only seem to be. Knowing the initial conditions well, there outcome can be determined by the known laws of scientific enquiry. But their dependence on the initial conditions is so high, that perfect determinism is a practical impossibility.
As it is popularly understood, chaos deals with unpredictable complex systems. Chaos theory studies how these systems, once thought to be completely random, actually contain hidden ordered patterns.
An example of a chaotic system is the weather forecasting system.
Chaos theory as a field of study in mathematics stems, in part, from the work of Edward Lorenz of MIT, a meteorologist, who simulated weather patterns on a computer. Working with a computer having limited memory, after viewing a particular pattern, he wanted to recover the data. He started the program again, except that this time he put in the initial values of temperature, air pressure, humidity etc. rounded off to 3 places after decimal instead of the original 6.
He was surprised to find a completely different result of weather patterns on his computer, than he had before. The sensitivity of initial conditions in a chaotic system is so high. that it is sometimes metaphorically quoted, that even a flutter of a butterfly’s wing somewhere over the deserts of Rajasthan can create a turbulence miles across, over the islands of Andaman!
This is how the ‘Butterfly effect’ has come to become a popular slogan of the chaos theory. If you make a error while dealing with a random system, the effect would be nothing significant as it would only lead us back to randomness. However, effect of small errors in initial condition of a chaotic system could be explosive.
The same principle applies to human society. Tiny changes in one person’s state of mind can, on occasions, lead to major changes in society as a whole. Or simple acts can lead to unintended consequences.
Chaos is important as it helps us to cope with dynamic, complex and unstable systems (like a few described above, including weather forecast) by improving our ability to describe, understand and even forecast them.

Another arena within which chaos theory is useful is that of organizations.
Applying chaos theory to organizational behavior allows strategists to take a step back from the management of day-to-day activities and see how organizations function as unified systems. An organization is a classic example of a nonlinear system (i.e., a system in which minor events have the potential to set off grave consequences or chain reactions, and major changes may have little or no effect on the system whatsoever).
In order to exploit the chaotic quality of an organization, one needs to try to see the organizational shape that emerges from a distance. Instead of pinpointing causes in the organization for organizational problems, the company is better served, according to chaos theory, by looking for organizational patterns that lead to certain types of behavior within the organization.

 
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Reyth

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Re: Can a computer predict randomness?
« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2016, 08:49:53 PM »

Code: [Select]
10 RANDOMIZE TIMER: s = -1
20 r = INT(RND * 37): LOCATE 1, 1: PRINT md
30 IF r = s THEN dup = dup + 1: GOTO 20
40 IF dup > 0 THEN 60
50 s = r: GOTO 20
60 IF md < dup THEN md = dup
70 dup = 0: s = r: GOTO 20

Human beings can run simulations and since we are talking about roulette, these simulations are very simple.  Certain things can be noticed; such as a repeat of a single number won't be demonstrated more than 4 times in a row and even getting past 3 takes some doing.  If random cannot be predicted then practical statements like that wouldn't be possible.

The author seems to take the easy way out on the coin flips so he can make his point about global weather patterns.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2016, 08:57:56 PM by Reyth »
 
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Avalon

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Re: Can a computer predict randomness?
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2016, 03:14:17 AM »
Reyth, what language is that coded in ?
Looks like Commodore Basic  :-\
 

Reyth

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Re: Can a computer predict randomness?
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2016, 03:49:52 AM »
Yuppers!  Its Windows Quick Basic 7.0 upgraded to 64-bit Windows.  Its called QB64 (freeware) and its loaded with all sorts of modern features like TCP/IP, html images, .wav audio, 3D rendering, mouse support, et. al.
 

Harryj

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Re: Can a computer predict randomness?
« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2016, 11:58:42 AM »
    I agree with Reyth. Chaos and Random are entirely different. In any random series the same patterns, trends, and variations can be seen repeated. Random only means that they are not repeated in a regular order that can be easily predicted.

       Harry
 
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Jesper

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Re: Can a computer predict randomness?
« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2016, 03:09:46 AM »
A computer can not per see produce random numbers, but a computer can be attached to a true random generator, like checking  spins of pair of electrons, or other true random events. Many on line casinos use true random generators, and not only software. A pseudo random software number is theoretical predictable.

Random has to do with information as well. We can spin a few spins or use numbers from a casino in tests. Those numbers are they random? They are random for a person never saw it before betting, but not for any who have the information. Some casinos draw the numbers before you play, send it to you in a way you can not read it before the play, but well after.  This number is random to you, but if you crack it it is not random, despite it holds for a test.

If a computer can check the table and deliver a number which is not bet on  or less bet on, yes, but then it is probably not random (as betting patterns not use to be random), If they do it on a small number of bets it will be hard to detect, without access to the software code.
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Can a computer predict randomness?
« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2016, 01:41:17 PM »
If it's random , expectations on all bets are equal to HE. This is all about it. More random it is more unbeatable it becomes. From the moment we consider it " randome" - time to go home, nothing to do there....
 

scepticus

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Re: Can a computer predict randomness?
« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2016, 09:06:58 PM »
If it's random , expectations on all bets are equal to HE. This is all about it. More random it is more unbeatable it becomes. From the moment we consider it " randome" - time to go home, nothing to do there....
As HarryJ says , mr. Perfect, Random only mean  that future “ events” do not happen in a particular order.  I agree with him here .
If you take the EC of R / B for instance . In any 3 three spins of the wheel there are only 8 variations of these but they can happen in any order - in other words they happen randomly. ( excepting zero of course ).
How does this mean that the HE is eliminated ?

 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Can a computer predict randomness?
« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2016, 10:45:40 PM »
If it's random , expectations on all bets are equal to HE. This is all about it. More random it is more unbeatable it becomes. From the moment we consider it " randome" - time to go home, nothing to do there....
As HarryJ says , mr. Perfect, Random only mean  that future “ events” do not happen in a particular order.  I agree with him here .
If you take the EC of R / B for instance . In any 3 three spins of the wheel there are only 8 variations of these but they can happen in any order - in other words they happen randomly. ( excepting zero of course ).
How does this mean that the HE is eliminated ?
Sorry Scepticus,  l do not see how HE would be eliminated in this situation. Unless you bet something else.
 

scepticus

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Re: Can a computer predict randomness?
« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2016, 12:18:00 AM »
You misunderstood Mr.P
I was saying that randomness exists and gave an illustration. I was asking you to tell me how the HE could be eliminated in this situation.
Or, if you say that randomness does not exist I am asking you to tell me why you think so.
I did not say that the HE did not exist . Like you I think it can be overcome - and that is entirely different.
 
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