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1
Roulette Strategy Discussion / Re: Long term fallacies
« Last post by scepticus on Today at 08:59:34 AM »

REAL
Why do you keep posting on a site you claimed was no longer in existence ?
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Roulette Strategy Discussion / Re: Long term fallacies
« Last post by BlueAngel on Today at 05:49:07 AM »
The first leg of your double-fold response is half-correct because something is missing...in order the slightly reduced payouts to affect us in a meaningful way 2 things have to happen:

1) We've to play long enough (I'm not talking about the duration of a single session)
2) After long play a few could still be ahead even with reduced payouts, that's because their bets return more money than the money lost on the way.
There is no contradiction in the above statement, if after a significant amount of results someone is ahead nothing could force him/her lose regardless of what's his/her betting method is.
I'm going to give a very simple example:

Nick flat bets red for 10,000 spins and finds himself ahead by 596 units.
Jane flat bets on black for the same spins and she's down by 620 units.

Nick is satisfied with his bottom line and decides to change nothing for the upcoming 10,000 spins.
Jane considers her drawdown as temporal and decides to stick with her selection because it's due and slightly raises her unit value from 1 to 2 (double).
After 10,000 spins, red dominates once again and Nick extends his lead by 213 units more.
While Jane realizes that black wasn't due after all and digs her hole even deeper.

Whether you understand it or not, the whole concept of the House Edge is based that events eventually should balance, but there is nothing which forces events to balance (except if the game is crooked).
At least in theory, we could back always winners, we could bet everything which can happen and end up with more profit than loss.
Long term is the accumulation of many sessions and a session is the accumulation of many bets, if you take care your short term then long term would follow.
There is nothing more absurd than the claims of those who consider short term and long term as irrelevant, they've decided to stick their sit-head in the sand, they've chosen to live in denial, they are the long term losers and I'm not feeling sorry for them.
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Roulette Strategy Discussion / Re: Long term fallacies
« Last post by BlueAngel on Today at 05:04:51 AM »
Why you divide by 3 and not 2 , explain me please and give other example

Simply because the divisor is not a fixed number, as the total of skips/distances grows the same happens for the divisor.
You begin by dividing by 2 the first 2 distances and when you have a third skip/distance you'll divide by 3, when you've 4 skips/distances you'll divide by 4...etc
In other words you are updating the average with each and every spin.
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Roulette Strategy Discussion / Re: Long term fallacies
« Last post by Real on Today at 01:44:03 AM »

Quote
The whole concept of the House Edge is based on the fallacy that everything should balance in some vague distant future.-BlueAngel

No it's not.  It's based on a payout that's short of what the odds dictate as being fair.  For example if you bet all of the numbers you will find you're paid back less than what you bet.  After only one spin, you're right at expectation.

Quote
I'm asking you, have you ever track numbers for 1,000 spins, for 10,000, for 100,000?-BlueAngel

Yes, I have one of the largest archives in the world of live spins from real wheels.  Have you ever tracked more than a few hundred numbers from a specific wheel?  (By the way, Speilburg..etc doesn't count, since it's actually a collection of several wheels rotated in and out of the same position.)

-Real

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Roulette Strategy Discussion / Re: Long term fallacies
« Last post by iar000 on Yesterday at 09:54:15 PM »
----  Let's assume that the next number is 33, 6 pockets CW from 8, add it to the previous total 6+32=38, divide the sum by 3   -----

Why you divide by 3 and not 2 , explain me please and give other example

Thanks
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Roulette Strategy Discussion / Long term fallacies
« Last post by BlueAngel on Yesterday at 08:20:06 PM »

The whole concept of the House Edge is based on the fallacy that everything should balance in some vague distant future.

I'm asking you, have you ever track numbers for 1,000 spins, for 10,000, for 100,000?
If you did, have you found at any given time the 37 numbers to balance?
Even close to it?
I don't think you did and you never will because there are are always leaders and followers.

Since all of the bet sections at the felt are group of numbers being categorized randomly you'll always have hot and cold numbers no matter what section you might choose to bet.

Even a cold EC doesn't include only cold numbers, the same goes for the opposite...EC's, as the largest group of numbers, include more hot but also more cold numbers which leads to conclusion that by betting more numbers doesn't improve ROI simply because we carry some dead weight along the way.

So if table's layout proximity is irrelevant, does wheel's layout is relevant?
You might think that wheel's sectors are more relevant to proximity since the ball is distributed along those 37 slots, but guess what, every sector has cold and hot numbers and what used to be above average now it's below par.
This is what I hate on this game, almost nothing is clear and straightforward, there are millions of ways to be wrong and only few to be right, that's why casinos profit, because they don't try to get it right but every time someone is wrong they win.

If we categorize numbers by the amount of balls received we could easily end up like dogs chasing our tails because it's not clear when a number becomes hot and for how long will remain this way.

Therefore we could discard categorizations by layouts and hits (regardless of how many).
What does it left to predict with?
No, physics is not the answer because we would have to face considerably many practical issues, I've mentioned them on other posts.

Think about Law of the Thirds for a minute, if after 37 spins I pick the cold numbers then how many of them would show up on next 37 spins?
2/3
If after 37 spins I pick the hot numbers then how many of them would show up on next 37 spins?
2/3
If after 37 spins I pick the average numbers then how many of them would show up on next 37 spins?
2/3

Conclusion, I get no advantage no matter what I choose!
If those 37 slots were colors or letters instead of numbers would that made any difference? No
By interpreting a random sequence in ''meaningful'' patterns makes only difference within our heads, assigning meaning to non rational random processes is a dead end.

There is the ancient Kabala which transforms letters to numbers and vice versa, you could code whole files into one form or the other.
If we'd interpret every number as a letter then clumps would form words and clustered words would form sentences...
But those messages are not from the dealers, neither the wheels, the dealers and wheels are only means to an end...
What insight such message could provide, can you even imagine?
Here is an example:
"Hell-000!1'm J0hn Huxley, my age 1s 37 rev0lut10ns around the rim...unf0rtunately there are n0t many reds, but are plenty of greens c0ming up..."

Now think really hard when you are in the bathroom, really hard, if in 37 spins 24 numbers show up why to expect balance in 370, or 3,700, or 37,000 or even 370,000??
37 is a microcosmos of 370,000, totals change but not the proportions!
37 is a part of 370,000 and many 37's combine in one 370,000, anyone who argues this indisputable fact he lives in denial!

If we ever witnessed 37 uniques in 37 successive spins their total would be 666, but the same total could be achieved by more 37 numbers permutations, 666 is just the average total.
What does this mean?
It simply means that if we had more high numbers then the total would be higher than 666 and if we had more low numbers then the total would be lower than 666.
Just imagine 666 as the thin red line which everything passes by but nothing stands on it...

If numbers have a theoretical probability to occur within any given time then skips have the exact same probability!
Skips in CW and CCW are a league of their own, for example:
Write down the distance the ball traveled from previous pocket to the next from spin to spin.
A skip/distance is the accumulation of the ball's and wheel's movements, thus by tracking differences in distances we measure the changes of the ball and the rotor from spin to spin.
When we are talking about distribution of results we actually talking about distribution of the ball.
Let the first two numbers be 16 and 32 for the example's sake, their distance is 17 pockets, next number is 8 and the ball traveled 15 pockets from previous number 32.

Add these two distances 17+15=32 and divide the total by amount of elements, in this case 2, thus 32/2=16
Count 16 pockets CW and 16 CCW from last number 8, bet those 2 numbers plus their right/left neighbors for a total of 6 numbers bet.

Let's assume that the next number is 33, 6 pockets CW from 8, add it to the previous total 6+32=38, divide the sum by 3, 13 is the closer whole number therefore count 13 pockets CW and 13 pockets CCW from last number 33.
Bet those 2 numbers pus their right/left neighbors.
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Roulette Strategy Discussion / Re: Talos_Dump
« Last post by juice on Yesterday at 05:27:37 PM »
Got it, I see what you did now, sorry!
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Roulette Strategy Discussion / Re: Talos_Dump
« Last post by BlueAngel on Yesterday at 05:05:11 PM »

Yes, you're wrong because the total that far (including the bet) is 10 units and with a win I get back 12 units, thus 2 units net.
I call it "Colpo Grosso".
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Roulette Strategy Discussion / Re: Talos_Dump
« Last post by juice on Yesterday at 04:59:54 PM »
.
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Roulette Strategy Discussion / Re: Talos_Dump
« Last post by BlueAngel on Yesterday at 11:37:56 AM »
Here's another one out of my gambling arsenal, it's a "target/parachute" with a d'Alembert twist!

BET     UNITS   TOTAL     PROFIT
EC           1         1              1
EC           2         3              1
EC           3         6              0
D/C         4         10            2
D/C         5         15            0
LINE        6         21           15
LINE        7         28           14
LINE        8         36           12
LINE        9         45            9
LINE        10        55           5
LINE        11        66           0
QUAD      12        78          30
QUAD      13       91           26
QUAD      14      105          21
QUAD      15      120          15
QUAD      16      136          8
QUAD      17      153          0
STREET    18      171         45
STREET    19      190         38
STREET    20      210         30
STREET    21      231         21
STREET    22      253         11
STREET    23      276          0
SPLIT       24      300        132
SPLIT       25      325        125
SPLIT       26      351        117
SPLIT       27      378        108
SPLIT       28      406         98
SPLIT       29      435         87
SPLIT        30      465         75
SPLIT        31      496         62
SPLIT        32      528         48
SPLIT        33      561         33
SPLIT        34      595         17
SPLIT        35      630          0
NUMBER    36      666        630
NUMBER    37      703        629
NUMBER    38      741        627
NUMBER    39      780        624
NUMBER    40      820        620
NUMBER    41      861        615
NUMBER    42      903        609
NUMBER    43      946        602
NUMBER    44      990        594
NUMBER    45      1035      585
NUMBER    46      1081      575
NUMBER    47      1128      564
NUMBER    48      1176      552
NUMBER    49      1225      539
NUMBER    50      1275      525
NUMBER    51      1326      510
NUMBER    52      1378      494
NUMBER    53      1431      477
NUMBER    54      1485      459
NUMBER    55      1540      440
NUMBER    56      1596      420
NUMBER    57      1653      399
NUMBER    58      1711      377
NUMBER    59      1770      354
NUMBER    60      1830      330
NUMBER    61      1891      305
NUMBER    62      1953      279
NUMBER    63      2016      252
NUMBER    64      2080      224
NUMBER    65      2145      195
NUMBER    66      2211      165
NUMBER    67      2278      134
NUMBER    68      2346      102
NUMBER    69      2415       69
NUMBER    70      2485       35
NUMBER     71     2556        0

One win out of 71 bets is enough to provides profit or break even, buona fortuna!;-)
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