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##### Roulette Strategy Discussion / Re: Long term fallacies

« Last post by**scepticus**on

*»*

**Today**at 08:59:34 AMREAL

Why do you keep posting on a site you claimed was no longer in existence ?

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REAL

Why do you keep posting on a site you claimed was no longer in existence ?

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The first leg of your double-fold response is half-correct because something is missing...in order the slightly reduced payouts to affect us in a meaningful way 2 things have to happen:

1) We've to play long enough (I'm not talking about the duration of a single session)

2) After long play a few could still be ahead even with reduced payouts, that's because their bets return more money than the money lost on the way.

There is no contradiction in the above statement, if after a significant amount of results someone is ahead nothing could force him/her lose regardless of what's his/her betting method is.

I'm going to give a very simple example:

Nick flat bets red for 10,000 spins and finds himself ahead by 596 units.

Jane flat bets on black for the same spins and she's down by 620 units.

Nick is satisfied with his bottom line and decides to change nothing for the upcoming 10,000 spins.

Jane considers her drawdown as temporal and decides to stick with her selection because it's due and slightly raises her unit value from 1 to 2 (double).

After 10,000 spins, red dominates once again and Nick extends his lead by 213 units more.

While Jane realizes that black wasn't due after all and digs her hole even deeper.

Whether you understand it or not, the whole concept of the House Edge is based that events eventually should balance, but there is nothing which forces events to balance (except if the game is crooked).

At least in theory, we could back always winners, we could bet everything which can happen and end up with more profit than loss.

Long term is the accumulation of many sessions and a session is the accumulation of many bets, if you take care your short term then long term would follow.

There is nothing more absurd than the claims of those who consider short term and long term as irrelevant, they've decided to stick their sit-head in the sand, they've chosen to live in denial, they are the long term losers and I'm not feeling sorry for them.

1) We've to play long enough (I'm not talking about the duration of a single session)

2) After long play a few could still be ahead even with reduced payouts, that's because their bets return more money than the money lost on the way.

There is no contradiction in the above statement, if after a significant amount of results someone is ahead nothing could force him/her lose regardless of what's his/her betting method is.

I'm going to give a very simple example:

Nick flat bets red for 10,000 spins and finds himself ahead by 596 units.

Jane flat bets on black for the same spins and she's down by 620 units.

Nick is satisfied with his bottom line and decides to change nothing for the upcoming 10,000 spins.

Jane considers her drawdown as temporal and decides to stick with her selection because it's due and slightly raises her unit value from 1 to 2 (double).

After 10,000 spins, red dominates once again and Nick extends his lead by 213 units more.

While Jane realizes that black wasn't due after all and digs her hole even deeper.

Whether you understand it or not, the whole concept of the House Edge is based that events eventually should balance, but there is nothing which forces events to balance (except if the game is crooked).

At least in theory, we could back always winners, we could bet everything which can happen and end up with more profit than loss.

Long term is the accumulation of many sessions and a session is the accumulation of many bets, if you take care your short term then long term would follow.

There is nothing more absurd than the claims of those who consider short term and long term as irrelevant, they've decided to stick their sit-head in the sand, they've chosen to live in denial, they are the long term losers and I'm not feeling sorry for them.

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Why you divide by 3 and not 2 , explain me please and give other example

Simply because the divisor is not a fixed number, as the total of skips/distances grows the same happens for the divisor.

You begin by dividing by 2 the first 2 distances and when you have a third skip/distance you'll divide by 3, when you've 4 skips/distances you'll divide by 4...etc

In other words you are updating the average with each and every spin.

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Quote

The whole concept of the House Edge is based on the fallacy that everything should balance in some vague distant future.-BlueAngel

No it's not. It's based on a payout that's short of what the odds dictate as being fair. For example if you bet all of the numbers you will find you're paid back less than what you bet. After only one spin, you're right at expectation.

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I'm asking you, have you ever track numbers for 1,000 spins, for 10,000, for 100,000?-BlueAngel

Yes, I have one of the largest archives in the world of live spins from real wheels. Have you ever tracked more than a few hundred numbers from a specific wheel? (By the way, Speilburg..etc doesn't count, since it's actually a collection of several wheels rotated in and out of the same position.)

-Real

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---- Let's assume that the next number is 33, 6 pockets CW from 8, add it to the previous total 6+32=38, divide the sum by 3 -----

Why you divide by 3 and not 2 , explain me please and give other example

Thanks

Why you divide by 3 and not 2 , explain me please and give other example

Thanks

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The whole concept of the House Edge is based on the fallacy that everything should balance in some vague distant future.

I'm asking you, have you ever track numbers for 1,000 spins, for 10,000, for 100,000?

If you did, have you found at any given time the 37 numbers to balance?

Even close to it?

I don't think you did and you never will because there are are always leaders and followers.

Since all of the bet sections at the felt are group of numbers being categorized randomly you'll always have hot and cold numbers no matter what section you might choose to bet.

Even a cold EC doesn't include only cold numbers, the same goes for the opposite...EC's, as the largest group of numbers, include more hot but also more cold numbers which leads to conclusion that by betting more numbers doesn't improve ROI simply because we carry some dead weight along the way.

So if table's layout proximity is irrelevant, does wheel's layout is relevant?

You might think that wheel's sectors are more relevant to proximity since the ball is distributed along those 37 slots, but guess what, every sector has cold and hot numbers and what used to be above average now it's below par.

This is what I hate on this game, almost nothing is clear and straightforward, there are millions of ways to be wrong and only few to be right, that's why casinos profit, because they don't try to get it right but every time someone is wrong they win.

If we categorize numbers by the amount of balls received we could easily end up like dogs chasing our tails because it's not clear when a number becomes hot and for how long will remain this way.

Therefore we could discard categorizations by layouts and hits (regardless of how many).

What does it left to predict with?

No, physics is not the answer because we would have to face considerably many practical issues, I've mentioned them on other posts.

Think about Law of the Thirds for a minute, if after 37 spins I pick the cold numbers then how many of them would show up on next 37 spins?

2/3

If after 37 spins I pick the hot numbers then how many of them would show up on next 37 spins?

2/3

If after 37 spins I pick the average numbers then how many of them would show up on next 37 spins?

2/3

Conclusion, I get no advantage no matter what I choose!

If those 37 slots were colors or letters instead of numbers would that made any difference? No

By interpreting a random sequence in ''meaningful'' patterns makes only difference within our heads, assigning meaning to non rational random processes is a dead end.

There is the ancient Kabala which transforms letters to numbers and vice versa, you could code whole files into one form or the other.

If we'd interpret every number as a letter then clumps would form words and clustered words would form sentences...

But those messages are not from the dealers, neither the wheels, the dealers and wheels are only means to an end...

What insight such message could provide, can you even imagine?

Here is an example:

"Hell-000!1'm J0hn Huxley, my age 1s 37 rev0lut10ns around the rim...unf0rtunately there are n0t many reds, but are plenty of greens c0ming up..."

Now think really hard when you are in the bathroom, really hard, if in 37 spins 24 numbers show up why to expect balance in 370, or 3,700, or 37,000 or even 370,000??

37 is a microcosmos of 370,000, totals change but not the proportions!

37 is a part of 370,000 and many 37's combine in one 370,000, anyone who argues this indisputable fact he lives in denial!

If we ever witnessed 37 uniques in 37 successive spins their total would be 666, but the same total could be achieved by more 37 numbers permutations, 666 is just the average total.

What does this mean?

It simply means that if we had more high numbers then the total would be higher than 666 and if we had more low numbers then the total would be lower than 666.

Just imagine 666 as the thin red line which everything passes by but nothing stands on it...

If numbers have a theoretical probability to occur within any given time then skips have the exact same probability!

Skips in CW and CCW are a league of their own, for example:

Write down the distance the ball traveled from previous pocket to the next from spin to spin.

A skip/distance is the accumulation of the ball's and wheel's movements, thus by tracking differences in distances we measure the changes of the ball and the rotor from spin to spin.

When we are talking about distribution of results we actually talking about distribution of the ball.

Let the first two numbers be 16 and 32 for the example's sake, their distance is 17 pockets, next number is 8 and the ball traveled 15 pockets from previous number 32.

Add these two distances 17+15=32 and divide the total by amount of elements, in this case 2, thus 32/2=16

Count 16 pockets CW and 16 CCW from last number 8, bet those 2 numbers plus their right/left neighbors for a total of 6 numbers bet.

Let's assume that the next number is 33, 6 pockets CW from 8, add it to the previous total 6+32=38, divide the sum by 3, 13 is the closer whole number therefore count 13 pockets CW and 13 pockets CCW from last number 33.

Bet those 2 numbers pus their right/left neighbors.

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Got it, I see what you did now, sorry!

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Yes, you're wrong because the total that far (including the bet) is 10 units and with a win I get back 12 units, thus 2 units net.

I call it "Colpo Grosso".

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Here's another one out of my gambling arsenal, it's a "target/parachute" with a d'Alembert twist!

BET UNITS TOTAL PROFIT

EC 1 1 1

EC 2 3 1

EC 3 6 0

D/C 4 10 2

D/C 5 15 0

LINE 6 21 15

LINE 7 28 14

LINE 8 36 12

LINE 9 45 9

LINE 10 55 5

LINE 11 66 0

QUAD 12 78 30

QUAD 13 91 26

QUAD 14 105 21

QUAD 15 120 15

QUAD 16 136 8

QUAD 17 153 0

STREET 18 171 45

STREET 19 190 38

STREET 20 210 30

STREET 21 231 21

STREET 22 253 11

STREET 23 276 0

SPLIT 24 300 132

SPLIT 25 325 125

SPLIT 26 351 117

SPLIT 27 378 108

SPLIT 28 406 98

SPLIT 29 435 87

SPLIT 30 465 75

SPLIT 31 496 62

SPLIT 32 528 48

SPLIT 33 561 33

SPLIT 34 595 17

SPLIT 35 630 0

NUMBER 36 666 630

NUMBER 37 703 629

NUMBER 38 741 627

NUMBER 39 780 624

NUMBER 40 820 620

NUMBER 41 861 615

NUMBER 42 903 609

NUMBER 43 946 602

NUMBER 44 990 594

NUMBER 45 1035 585

NUMBER 46 1081 575

NUMBER 47 1128 564

NUMBER 48 1176 552

NUMBER 49 1225 539

NUMBER 50 1275 525

NUMBER 51 1326 510

NUMBER 52 1378 494

NUMBER 53 1431 477

NUMBER 54 1485 459

NUMBER 55 1540 440

NUMBER 56 1596 420

NUMBER 57 1653 399

NUMBER 58 1711 377

NUMBER 59 1770 354

NUMBER 60 1830 330

NUMBER 61 1891 305

NUMBER 62 1953 279

NUMBER 63 2016 252

NUMBER 64 2080 224

NUMBER 65 2145 195

NUMBER 66 2211 165

NUMBER 67 2278 134

NUMBER 68 2346 102

NUMBER 69 2415 69

NUMBER 70 2485 35

NUMBER 71 2556 0

One win out of 71 bets is enough to provides profit or break even, buona fortuna!;-)

BET UNITS TOTAL PROFIT

EC 1 1 1

EC 2 3 1

EC 3 6 0

D/C 4 10 2

D/C 5 15 0

LINE 6 21 15

LINE 7 28 14

LINE 8 36 12

LINE 9 45 9

LINE 10 55 5

LINE 11 66 0

QUAD 12 78 30

QUAD 13 91 26

QUAD 14 105 21

QUAD 15 120 15

QUAD 16 136 8

QUAD 17 153 0

STREET 18 171 45

STREET 19 190 38

STREET 20 210 30

STREET 21 231 21

STREET 22 253 11

STREET 23 276 0

SPLIT 24 300 132

SPLIT 25 325 125

SPLIT 26 351 117

SPLIT 27 378 108

SPLIT 28 406 98

SPLIT 29 435 87

SPLIT 30 465 75

SPLIT 31 496 62

SPLIT 32 528 48

SPLIT 33 561 33

SPLIT 34 595 17

SPLIT 35 630 0

NUMBER 36 666 630

NUMBER 37 703 629

NUMBER 38 741 627

NUMBER 39 780 624

NUMBER 40 820 620

NUMBER 41 861 615

NUMBER 42 903 609

NUMBER 43 946 602

NUMBER 44 990 594

NUMBER 45 1035 585

NUMBER 46 1081 575

NUMBER 47 1128 564

NUMBER 48 1176 552

NUMBER 49 1225 539

NUMBER 50 1275 525

NUMBER 51 1326 510

NUMBER 52 1378 494

NUMBER 53 1431 477

NUMBER 54 1485 459

NUMBER 55 1540 440

NUMBER 56 1596 420

NUMBER 57 1653 399

NUMBER 58 1711 377

NUMBER 59 1770 354

NUMBER 60 1830 330

NUMBER 61 1891 305

NUMBER 62 1953 279

NUMBER 63 2016 252

NUMBER 64 2080 224

NUMBER 65 2145 195

NUMBER 66 2211 165

NUMBER 67 2278 134

NUMBER 68 2346 102

NUMBER 69 2415 69

NUMBER 70 2485 35

NUMBER 71 2556 0

One win out of 71 bets is enough to provides profit or break even, buona fortuna!;-)