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Roulette Forum => Trading secrets and strategies => Topic started by: Geoffrey on February 14, 2017, 03:59:13 PM

Title: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on February 14, 2017, 03:59:13 PM
Trading is not directly related to gambling , casino or roulette. But sure has more a lot of similarities.

I wonder if there are people here who are into trading?
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on February 14, 2017, 04:22:27 PM
http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1251.msg17958#msg17958
http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1256.msg18024#msg18024
http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=2907
Title: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: MrPerfect. on February 18, 2017, 09:44:50 PM
 I'm looking into binary options now... sims interesting. Has many negative aspects, like high house edge and lots of scams ... but on something like official and regulated money exchange could potentialy work out nicely. Needs studies Dow. .. 18- 25 % house edge is not easy to overcome.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: kav on February 18, 2017, 09:52:50 PM
Reyth has posted some amazing links!
See also here, for a more "philosophical" comparison:
(http://image.prntscr.com/image/3c93cb9698e84932829240ee7876c2c6.png)
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on February 19, 2017, 02:02:10 AM
I tought that this topic would have more interest because of the similarities between financial market and gambling (roulette, Bj, etc)

So glad to see some responses.

two quick answers.

Kav: Yes indeed, the links are a very intersting read. haven't had the time, to really get deeper into it. but i will. maybe in this topic.
Furhtermore i looked into the 2 articles you refer to a while back (probably beginning of previous year) with the extra year of expierence, i have to admit, i still stand behind different things explaned in those articles. On the otherhand, on other aspects i have to disagree a little.

Mr Perfect: I dont know if you are expierenced yet, or if you're just getting interessted and still are finding your way getting true things the financial market has to offer??

I personally wouldn't feel good if i didn't warn you to stay away from binary options and forex. You can win big time, its true, but its to damn risky. Too much hit or mis kinda stuff. I wouldnt want anyone here to burn himself.

Us market is extremely volatile, and therefor very hard also. On the other hand if you master it, its were you can get the most money out consistently. I'm not on US market for the moment. It's something i will work on in 2018. when i can fix the volatility problem, my overal performance will grow and speed up dramatically. so still lots to be done.

The good news is , can you get an edge over the financial market?? The answer is YES and you dont need to do a sort of 'AP' approach like in roulette to achieve it.

Title: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: MrPerfect. on February 19, 2017, 06:08:56 AM
Thank's for warning Geoffrey. I have 0 expirience with the market... l red some articles and books and have some analytical skills under my belt.
  Still searching reliable brokers on binary thing.
I see problems with forex or stock markets, if market crashes, player may loose a lot ... on binary options loss is limited to current bet amount.
   Why do you think no need to be AP to play on market? It's a same as roulette wheel. Sometimes very expected behaviour, sometimes unpredictable... depending on the time of the day, news, general economical situation, activity of hedge funds, major players actions... ets. It's full of variables, same as roulette.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Shadowman on February 19, 2017, 02:10:22 PM
Hi Geoffrey

I find this an interesting topic as I have tried to find correlations with trading and gambling.

Not being a trader myself I am interested in knowing how you get an edge without any AP equivalent.

Many thanks

Mike
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Bayes on February 19, 2017, 02:44:08 PM
  Still searching reliable brokers on binary thing.

Binary options have a bad reputation and are considered as little more than gambling in the trading world.

Ever considered sports betting? I reckon you'd be pretty good at it.  ;)

And why the change of direction? running out of wheels?  ;D
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: MrPerfect. on February 19, 2017, 04:13:02 PM
  Still searching reliable brokers on binary thing.

Binary options have a bad reputation and are considered as little more than gambling in the trading world.

Ever considered sports betting? I reckon you'd be pretty good at it.  ;)

And why the change of direction? running out of wheels?  ;D
Wheels require team or lots of free time. I have none of these. No one wanna work, everyone just tolks around. On markets l can be " one man army" on my own.
 Wheels are out there, l can cover 3 at the time, can not follow more then that while physically being there...  when it's good , l can use one only... markets permit me to stay home or anywhere l want, l see it as a benefit.
    Take yourself as an examile,  you didn't bother to learn numbers order up till now. And everyone is like that. All wanna money, no one wanna work for it.....
  Don't get me wrong...  it's not " direction change", it's expansion. 
 Game is all the same after all, just change in required variables.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Bayes on February 19, 2017, 05:12:38 PM
    Take yourself as an examile,  you didn't bother to learn numbers order up till now. And everyone is like that. All wanna money, no one wanna work for it.....
 

It would be a pointless exercise because I don't intend to go to B & M casinos, and if playing online I can use software. It's not that I don't want to work...
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Bebediktus on February 19, 2017, 05:46:59 PM
Wheels require team or lots of free time. I have none of these.
I can explain abit . You know diference between say professional basket player and amateur, who play in the yard ?
Diference usually is very big. That yard player of course sometimes can be also as good as professional , but chance for that is one from thousands.

The same is with game - you cant do good if you need free time for that and no matter if that is roulette or if that is financial trading.... think about that ...
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: juice on February 19, 2017, 06:34:12 PM
My 2 cents on this is what I have always believed...roulette is a much better chance at making money than the options market. I have traded extensively and the biggest benefit is that your trades ( play ), in roulette, have no expiration date,like the options market does. Look at any simple high probability play on the ec's for example. For the sake of argument....12 reds in a row. You can bet the opposite or the continuation or both sides ( straddle ), and make money even if you lose that trade, because your option on the condition you are playing NEVER EXPIRES! With proper bet and bank management, you can revisit that condition at a latter date and always make money. With the stock market, that trade ends out of the money every third Thursday of the month....
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Sputnik on February 19, 2017, 07:17:32 PM

 My faorite is EC ...

 Cheers
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on February 19, 2017, 07:20:59 PM
Ya, I have found options to be very scary instruments for direct investment.  I have used them succesfully in the commodities market as a bet hedge and in that instance it became profitable so that I broke even.

Option prices move far too fast for my liking.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: scepticus on February 19, 2017, 09:46:19 PM
Trading is not directly related to gambling , casino or roulette. But sure has more a lot of similarities.

I wonder if there are people here who are into trading?
" Facilitators" make money providing the facilities.
Casinos are facilitators  and find it profitable.
Might it be profitable to buy shares in casinos and companies providing the facility of betting the Stock Market / Financial Markets ?
Title: re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: MrPerfect. on February 20, 2017, 12:12:16 AM
Wheels require team or lots of free time. I have none of these.
I can explain abit . You know diference between say professional basket player and amateur, who play in the yard ?
Diference usually is very big. That yard player of course sometimes can be also as good as professional , but chance for that is one from thousands.

The same is with game - you cant do good if you need free time for that and no matter if that is roulette or if that is financial trading.... think about that ...
Fair enough.  Everything require time. I can currently go and play 2 times a week at night. Wheel is good, everything is nice, but only these 2 nights there are players there. I'm researching other wheel, wich will take 1 more weak at least.... if it show edge- good, if not l have to do something in the mean time. Markets are as good as anything else. And there is no heat or need to hide what you are doing.
Title: Re: re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Bebediktus on February 20, 2017, 08:03:15 AM
Markets are as good as anything else. And there is no heat or need to hide what you are doing.
Market is the same game, like roulette, like sport bets, like poker. And in every game wins these, who are bests. If you think, that you are best in tradings - perfect - go to market and do your money.

 Only still, to make money you must be professional in that . And two times per week in nights  for sure - not enough to become professional :)
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on February 20, 2017, 08:11:10 AM
If we are talking about mastering a particular thing, I am a huge believer in a minimum of 15 minutes EVERY DAY studying and working with that thing (Sundays off is OK).  The key of course is every day.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Bebediktus on February 20, 2017, 09:04:03 AM
If we are talking about mastering a particular thing, I am a huge believer in a minimum of 15 minutes EVERY DAY studying and working with that thing (Sundays off is OK).  The key of course is every day.
Oh no - in all universities one lecture is about 2 hours, in sport also one training is about two hours. That 2 hours are taked not from sky....

You think that for basketball players will be enough to train 15 min per day ? I think such players will  reach no results...
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: scepticus on February 20, 2017, 03:25:00 PM
If we are talking about mastering a particular thing, I am a huge believer in a minimum of 15 minutes EVERY DAY studying and working with that thing (Sundays off is OK).  The key of course is every day.

It used to be said that it takes 10,000 hours of study  to be proficient at anything worthwhile.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on February 20, 2017, 03:53:03 PM
Bayes is right on this: Binary Options is gambling in terms of trading. And i wouldn't give forex attention also.

First of all you have to think about how you stand at the stockmarket. What do you want to achieve? for example gaining a little extra savings. how much are you willing to invest. what would be your riskprofile. What is your final target you are aiming at?

these questions are more important then you think. because stock market has different posibilties. and soms are better suited than others, depending on what you are willing to achieve. theres so many to trade from , if you are new to this, you simply dont know what could be best for you. so start off with answering these questions for yourself.

This will guide you through the market and you'll end up finding the branch that feels right for you to trade on.

let me be clear, there is no such thing as easy money, the stock market is no exception. It only has one big difference with roulette.

while in roulette, everyspin is completetly independend. the stock market isnt. What happens in the US will affect Asia and Europe, and the otherway around. In roulette there is no such thing, past spins could indicate something , but there have little to none effect on the outcome of future spins. In the economic world its much easier to forcast what will happen.

So while roulette is much more depending on luck. the financial market depends more on the knowledge you have build up and the skills you have under your belt. the more expierenced you get, to more you'll be able to 'read' the market. It all starts with doing your homework which is time consuming. but if you do it right, the reward will come in the end.

in casino it doesn't matter how devoted you are, it comes down to variance/ luck. the only difference with being a rookie or an expierenced player in casino , is that you will last longer. If you are an expierenced trader, you will come out ahead.

Oh and juice, you are entitled to have your opinion. And if you are just talking about options , i have to agree we are better of doing some roulette. But the stock market has many other things to offer than just options. And in the end if you know what you are doing, the stock market will provide you an income, which roulette wont.

 15 min Everyday practive, reading learning, will take you to much time to get there, it simple is very much to digest.

In my opinion and that's only referering to myself. If you really work extensively (about 10-20 hours minimum a week) you'll be a good trader in a bout 2 years time.

But that doesn't promise you a goldmine yet. A lot depends on your charactar. how you cope with losing trades. and even so this seems simple to do: the ability to stick to your plan. this seems so logical, but most traders deviate from an original plan from the moment things aren't supposed to turn out the way they should. Its the ability to handle these situations that will determine if you''ll become succesfull or not
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: juice on February 20, 2017, 04:20:46 PM
I was only referring to options. Equities are a much easier approach.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: MrPerfect. on February 20, 2017, 05:45:47 PM
I was only referring to options. Equities are a much easier approach.
Options are good, nothing wrong about them. Profit potential is simply huge. Yes, there is a house edge to overcome.... in short, you need to be right at least 90% of the time to compound it properly. On other hand, no one says to trade always, there are good and bad times. I mean, if someone to go egainst a trends and without understanding,  he is doomed. But what if not? If one is prepared? I see kids making huge money out of it in matter of minutes.  What if one adopted " sure hit " strategy? Like betting when everything is right?
  Variables are similar to roulette after all... there is historical to study.... and best thing of all, they do not change anything!!! If there is a correlation between prediction and outcome, it's dependent events.
   I see lots of opinions... where is practical expirience result? Who express their opinions based on genuine practice? 
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on February 20, 2017, 07:28:00 PM
today, half my monthly income i get from trading. Have been doing so last 5 years. To get to be able to get a living from trading is just a matter of time.

Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on February 20, 2017, 07:36:48 PM
Well 15 minutes a day is extreme but after a year the amount of knowledge and skill gained, is amazing for such a small time.  I think that is the point.

A person with a very busy schedule that aspires to master a new field of endeavor can benefit greatly from 15 minutes a day (EVERY DAY) studying and working in that field and even to the point of mastery.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Bebediktus on February 20, 2017, 07:38:10 PM
today, half my monthly income i get from trading. Have been doing so last 5 years. To get to be able to get a living from trading is just a matter of time.
Guys, are few things, which you must consider. No mater trading or play - winners are only, when are losers . So part lost and part win. That part which lost is much bigger...
I have cousin, which made not bad money from trading about 15 years back, but now he that changed.
I have one  very good friend which also in some time done good money  on trading, but then turned to poker...

What can i say from all that - not all is so beautiful in that trading :)
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on February 20, 2017, 08:16:38 PM
today, half my monthly income i get from trading. Have been doing so last 5 years. To get to be able to get a living from trading is just a matter of time.
Guys, are few things, which you must consider. No mater trading or play - winners are only, when are losers . So part lost and part win. That part which lost is much bigger...
I have cousin, which made not bad money from trading about 15 years back, but now he that changed.
I have one  very good friend which also in some time done good money  on trading, but then turned to poker...

What can i say from all that - not all is so beautiful in that trading :)

Yeah most of traders are losers in the end. these are the aprox figures. 85% lose on trading . 6 % make profit consistently, 9% of traders do trade for a living and remain succesfull.

Its not because a cousin or a friend, had a good run for a short periode that the financial market cant be beaten.

Having a good run is easy. to be a consistent winner is the hard part, but less hard than roulette.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on February 20, 2017, 08:53:07 PM
I think we experience in roulette much more quickly what the traders experience in the market; it is like online RNG roulette versus B&M roulette -- online roulette spins 10x as fast as B&M and so the results are magnified in time.

But one other thing, Tickseeker showed clearly that our random flow is NOT the same as the market flow but I think it can be said that they share similar features; specifically the depth of a "losing run" that is possible.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Shadowman on February 20, 2017, 11:15:57 PM
I think that the crux of the matter with both trading and roulette is that you need an edge. I think that to find it in both spheres takes a lot of work, hence the number of losers. The biggest difficulty is actually finding the edge in the first place and a viable way to taking advantage of it............there is an awful lot of misinformation floating about and it certainly takes some time to sift the chaff from the wheat........I am still sifting.

Mike
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on February 21, 2017, 01:26:00 AM
I think if your edge revolves around or near 450 bet numbers before receiving a hit, you have a real edge.
Title: re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: MrPerfect. on February 21, 2017, 01:43:27 AM
 Trading is simply scarry.  It's terrifying in its nature. There are bears there. Bears allow bulls to grow fatty before slotering them.
  On other hand, exotic options is the same as trading, but short time. It's like in roulette , you can loose only money you bet, not all your bankroll in one spin.  Edge is essential obviously. ..
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on February 22, 2017, 11:10:32 AM
To be a succesfull trader it al comes down to this : It aint about how hard you hit, its about how hard you can get hit, and keep moving forward. Yeah i know it's a quote from rocky balboa, buts its so spot on.

Anohter quote thats not difficult to comprehend, but is pretty good advice comes from Jesse livermore: There are times to go long, there are time to go short, and there are times to go fishing. Seems simple to do but many dont apply this.

Most of traders seem to be pushed to get in the market, just because they got the feeling 'i'm not working to earn my money'.

To be honest, sometimes doing nothing is wise. If the market doesn't give you good opportunities, why the hell should you make a trade? Do a trade when it's worth it. Oterwise stay away.

Not losing a trade , makes you win money too , in a way.

Now some practical advise:

 1) A trade shouldn't be more than 1 to 2 % of you capital.

Most dont stick to this advice, when a string of losses occur, they tend to risk more to recover the losses.
In fact that is like not wanting to take the hits and force your way through. I repeat this is NOT how things are done.
Take the hit, accept the loss. stick to your gameplan. there will be losses, accept them. you"ll get winnings to. if you act disciplined. your winnings will get the upperhand in de long term.

2) dont trade on feeling or intuition, the market has its own mind, trust on that.

meaning, if a trade doesnt fit your trading criteria dont take it. when it does, TAKE IT, dont go saying 'hmmm looks ok , but i got a bad feeling about this one. Feelings dont make you win in this business.

3) put a stop loss immediatly after you made a trade. this may seem naturally but many traders dont do this. Most of them are fixated on the price they wanna get and if the trade doesn't go well, they simply make anohter trade.

see where i'm getting with this, its like spinning the wheel over and over again and thinking 'this time i'll get it'. In fact the only thing you are doing is empty your own pockets faster then you intented to.

4) when to get in and get out

we are programmed of fear to lose, and hoping to win. This human nature makes us mistime our entries and exits.

same happens with gamblers in casino. when we are in losing position we try to recover using a type of progression. letting our losses run in the hope the progression will fix it in the end.

what you have to do is going against this nature. Cut your losses short  (stop loss)and let your profits run.

Most traders do the reserve uncounsiencely. And that's why they lose.

Now. Question is how far can i let my proftis run? cant answer that. Its a matter of expierence.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: MrPerfect. on February 22, 2017, 12:21:52 PM
 "How far to let it ride" is very interesting qwestion.
  As l understood, there are methods to qualify trends by their direction ( +;-), momentum, consistency. ... ets. Need to test specific triggers for entry and exit points. But in short , logic is simple, when it's low- buy, when high - sell.
    Trend is qualified as " repetitive behavior ower time consistently".  If it's up trend , it will produce higher ups followed by higher lows. Trend breaks when both of these assumptions are broken, one of assumptions broken can be signal to pay attention.... as with everything with market, you pay for confirmation. How much you pay, will depend on individual capability to devise good strategy and perform proper study of market.
    There are  math tools to pay less for errors..  make gradual entry/ exit points for example.
 Entry slow exit qweak... ets.
    It's not that lm expert of markets or whatever... it's just same thing as roulette bankroll grouth study. Many things do make a sense , they are logical and sound..  however looks like in both worlds ( markets and roulette), people just do not pay attention to the basics

Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on February 22, 2017, 01:36:03 PM
Anyone who tends to try trading, first mistake they make is, getting into it unprepared. They pay learning money the hard way.

Thats why it is so important to have a good platform to work from, which also has some educational background.
Why would anyone start to trade if you haven't tested anything beforehand?

To be able to do 'papertrading'has a lot of value. Certainly when you can do backtest over a period of several years.
most of the the platform produces the outcome automaticly. but that doesn't give as a true image about how strong or weak our potential strategy is. Because those results are like done by someone with no emotion, a robot if you like. you have do it manually by hand. this will take you a while. But it will give you a better view on the possible drawbacks that could occur.

As you stated in your previous response, when fear, greed, hope comes into play , many forget the basics.

Having a good system looks like this: Easy to crasp (KISS) no need for 25 indicators, no need for 5 screens to look at. (This is totally unnecessary, its just for show and to show of) 2 screens is more than enough. when you are not that expierenced even one screen is all you need

Second thing, it has to deliver consistent results. no very deep drawbacks, and no skyrocking targets.

Most important is getting a crasp of how the market works, and gain knowledge of that market. The more expierenced you get. You''l know when to trade and when to go fish.

Someone who blindfully trust his indicators wont succeed. because of the fact that even thou our indicators could say , here is a trend to go long. many times to trend goes against you. So traders who only trust upon technical indicators will end up failing.

the point is, dont put money on the table before you know your strategy is solid and it can take many hits.

Stick with basic knowledge apply it (which seems hard for most people, because it goes against our nature, which is psychological hard to handle)
do not overcomplicate things, KISS.
gain expierence, go test to the fullest by papertrading. Eventually you will come up with a plan that suits you.
Oh and one more thing. Do not overuse the possibilties the stockmarket has to offer. When a trader is succesfull on something, stick to that. Most do several things, some are good other are bad , the outcome is that things will get balanced out, and in the end you will not be profitable. So dont go doing, cruid oil, binary options, forex, indexing, funds, bonds, etfs, or cfd-ing. stick to something that seem to work for you and hold on to that.

To end off, here are some other intersting quotes

'the first rule in trading is not to lose money, the second rule is not forgetting the first one'

'Its when the tide goes, that we discover who has been swimming naked'

'wall street people never learn and forget everything'
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Shadowman on February 22, 2017, 11:58:20 PM
The way that I understand it to win at trading or roulette you need some kind of edge. From what I have read about trading there are the equivalent of AP players in roulette, i.e. Those who have a genuine edge.  What I can't understand is that the advice within the trading community is generally don't trade too much.......why???

Surely if you have a true edge you should be trading more often as in the long run you will win.

Geoffrey I am curious to know what is the premise of your edge, could you not trade a roulette chart in the same manner as a trader would a stock chart?

At mr Perfect, regarding where you exit.  I believe that assuming you set a stop loss then give yourself a target of at least double that and when that target is hit you pull out of the trade, regardless of whether it continues.  You will find that in general that it won't continue more than it does.  From my experiments, in the long run you end up no better off chasing the trend than if you set realistic targets and stick to them......but then it depends on what your edge is.  Trading literature can be quite aloof when discussing some kind of proven advantage that can be found.

Mike
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on February 23, 2017, 12:18:05 AM
I think the advice is normally "don't stay in the market if your goal for entering is not being met".  If the advice is to limit trading, I would think the only reason would be sharpness of mind and the effects of fatigue.

I guess AP players are "fundamental" traders?  Their charting uses entirely different criteria than "technical" traders (system players).

I have always liked the advice that says, "Let the market take you out" and synch up the stop loss as the trend moves; this is due to the necessity of maximizing profit & minimizing loss on every trade (mini-max).

I now personally think (I didn't used to) that the similarities between roulette and trading are only on the surface because random based outcomes are different than human transaction based outcomes.  Maybe the only similarity would be with AP players?

Sure, we start betting and end betting & charts can be made of this but Tickseeker showed that random flow is really different than transactional flow.  If charting is to work for roulette system players, it must be able to accurately depict statistical extremes.

I think Bayes has made headway in this, here:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1338.msg18974#msg18974

See how the x-o output is actually a chart.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: MrPerfect. on February 23, 2017, 01:13:46 PM
 There are qwestions to be answered... they are same as with roulette. It's what , where , when and so on...
 Markets do have variables ( covered in technical analisys), markets do have tendencies ( fundamental analisys)... ets. Have to account for these.
    No point in trading without clear definition what one would exploit there. Edge in trading coming from clear understanding of what one is supposed to do when... 1..2..3...
    It's a zero sum market. Means for you  to win something, someone has to loose something.
  Prices are not stable, they adjust and hoover around averages. Determining clearly where the average is the best that trader can hope for.
   No point to trade just for a sake of trading, need to have some objective in mind. If trader can not see clear objective to make a transaction, what is a point to make one?
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on February 23, 2017, 04:56:40 PM
some interersting replies

But first i got a couple of questions for you

1)Which is easier to beat? the financial market or a game called roulette?

I'll give you some figures.

we all know were roulette will bring you if you play it day in day out year in year out.

Now how about shares?

Over a period of 100 years shares give you an average profit of 6%. This includes marketcrashes in de periode of the 20-30 (great depression) and the bank crisis in 2008.

2) if a method proves to be profitable in the long term , how much would you be willing to pay for it, to get your hands on it and start to study it.

Just curious about that.

Me and my trading buddy are attending tradingschool in 2018. the objective would be to find out why our method seems to be working as a charm on European markets. But doesn't work on the US. + there is clame that it is possible to put together a longterm portofolio which extends 10% yearly profit. This with little effort. A few hours a year till 10 max, is more than enough. This sounds very interesting to me, so gonna check that out.

And we all know the US market is where the money is, so as a trader to master that part should be your primary and in fact only objective. Maybe a few adjustment would suffice to get our method up and running on the US market , but for now we seem to overlook something.

Anyway, a couple of days back someone asks me which books are to be red. But as i'm not an expert on US market i dont have English books. So i couldn't give a straight answer.

What i do know is there a lot of crap around (books, internet), and this got us thinking.

What if we could get together all the stuff a trader needs to know, and cut off al the mambo jambo that doesn't mather. Nobody would ever need to buy several books about the subject, cause all there is to know, would be assembled in just one book.

Combine that with video tutorials ,where you can see us trade live , give you real trade examples,

First idea was to do this local , as i'm not from a anglo saxon country, the english books were not a priority.

But come to think about it. we could reach a lot more people this way. so i've already started my research on this.

Gonna stop here for now, have folks coming over which can arrive any minute. I'll reply back on previous posts later this evening
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: scepticus on February 23, 2017, 04:59:32 PM
Interesting thread Geof.
Like roulette trading there are many "Systems" .Much depends on the individual's Psyche in both.
Trading requires a much bigger "bankroll" than roulette  which explains why there are more roulette players than Traders.
As you say both require that you fully understand the Game before risking real money  and a Plan is better than betting haphazardly.
I am not too keen on  establishing an "Edge". This depends on an Assumption which may turn out to be false . No  Assumption or Edge can allow for an Extreme Event  and Extreme Events cannot be predicted  with certainty.. The many Financial disasters are testament to that fact though there are many "proofs" made in hindsight .
Good Luck with your betting.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on February 25, 2017, 02:39:58 PM
i promised to get back at this. sorry for the delay.

So here we go,

At shadowman: Why not trade to much? well in fact Reyth answered that beautifully.

Yeah indeed its mostly about anti fatigue measures and sharpness of mind.

The market can fluctuate in matther of seconds. Your concentration has to be 200%, and execute the trade fast.

If you're doing trade after trade all day long, you'll start off doing things on semi auto pilot. Mistakes will be made.

It often is said that if you are right 6 times out of 10 you are considered an expert. Most wont even get 5/10. but in fact this stated is just a lot of crap.

Doesn't matter how succesfull your hit ratio is. what matters is, when you hit it right, you have to make it count.

to simplify this. just take a roulette example. what do you gain if we got Ec's right 6 out of 10?
what do we gain if we get a single bet right 1 out of 20?

So hit ratio isn't important at all.

So you ask about my edge. well it's not about which trade i do exactly or how many times i'm right or wrong.
as stated in a previous post. its about how many you can take and keep moving  forward.

My money management is so strong in a way that it can take a lot. And that is what makes a good trader.

Believe it or not, main concern for a serious trader is what to do to not lose his capital. he'll only trade when the conditions are met which indicate that the chances of losing his trade are very slim, and when it does lose, it hardly affects his capital.

a inexperienced trader will think , how can i win. I think you see the difference.

Everybody is an financial expert in a bull market. But when the market turns against you, then you get to see which ones are good traders, and which have just had some luck previously

Lets take my own trading situation as an example. the months november, december, just gave me crap on the market. i've endured a string of losses, and the good trades were very average. But still manages to balance my capital.

The mounth january i got 3 beautifull trades. I only needed one the balance out all previous losses. so the other two were net profit. Now the month february is almost over. hasnt been a great month either. and that what makes it hard also.

the discipline, and the patience. sometimes its harder than you think. But its well worth it. i only need a couple of strong hits a month to get nice profit and thats what counts.

if been papertrading for 3 years, and 2 years with real money. in these past 60 months i only had 2 months with a net loss. and these were so small that it didn't even bother me a bit.

Many beginners would say, i'm not expierenced enough, but i'm interested so, he's paying a bank advisor for his service to guide him through.

To be honest. you are better of educating yourself instead of putting your money in the hands of someone else. Bank advisors will tell you that gaining a yearly profit of 10% is a great result.

Let me tell you this , 10% profit on yearly basis , thats an amateur talking.

at Reyth: I like the way you think. You could become a good trader if you would get serious about it. But i guess the fascinating game called roulette takes away much of your time :)

you are correct concerning why not overdoing the amount of trades to be done daily. Less is more principle for reasons i explaned above.

About technical vs fundamental analysis, best way to go is use both.

about the randomness in roulette and financial market. seems like you get it.

its not the same kind of randomness . What does make the market move? Rumors. Speculations, actions made by traders, make a course chance. so yess, financial market can get random, but its al based on human actions.

in roulette the outcomes wont be affected by the players decission.

At mr perfect: Correct it clearly comes down to understanding the market, and knowing what to do in different scenarios. You got to know when tot rade, when to back off, which trades are worth taking. And most importantly. When you are doing a trade, reflect on how it can influence your bankroll. All this is the hard part.
That’s where i’m strong at, doesn’t matter that much for me if a taken trade is losing, and even so if a losing streak appears, where the market is clearly going against me. My capital/ bankroll can handle it. i only need a couple of good trades.

To explain this the roulette way, it’s like playing a single bet flat betting, and the number hits 5% of the time on a continous basis. You see , no worries there.
The reason why i’m not able to fully be able to live from trading is because of what sceps has mentioned. It’s easier to start of with a higher bankroll. But its not a premise to be succesfull.
To simplify this, lets just look at this the roulette way.
I do reinvest my profits by buying new contracts. The more contracts you have. The stronger your position gets.
Its the same with roulette. Having more contracts simply means to push on higher stakes in roulette
1 contract could be : 1 point = 1 euro. If you have 10 contracts , 1 point would represent 10 euro’s.
So the amount of contracts you have equals your betting size in roulette. Knowing that you betting size may not expand 1-2% of your bankroll. It safe to say when you’re able to higher your stakes (contracts) without taking more risk.

Thats one reason why i’m not able to live from trading succes only. I’ll have to buy more and more contracts to get a stronger position. This simply needs time. So thats why having a higher starting bankroll/ capital does save you lot of time.
The second reason is that i focus only on european market because i fully understand it.
Asian market i do have tested and could be interesting but its to time consuming cause its out of my timezone, so i does affect my sleeping hours a lot. Which could have a big influence on my trades in terms of lack of rest i could get slappy. So i simply dropped it.

To be able to get were i want to be, i’ll have to jump on the US market. So i’m doing the same research i did on european markets. And thats why i’ll be attending trading school, because the trading principles taught over there focus on us market only.
My trading plan as it is right now doesn’t work as it should on US, mostly because of the volatility. Its much harder to get well positioned over and over again in US market.

Once this ‘US problem’ is solved and i’m getting more and more contracts in. I wouldnt have any concern about getting a dayjob.

Isn’t this everybodies dream?? To be financially independend, not be pushed to work your ass off for some asshole boss to get a salary which aint high enough to live comfortly.
Be your own boss, without the need to work for it for 12 hours a day.
In fact i only spend 4 hours a day max on trading activities. So i do have a lot of free time. Although part of that free time goes in research to even get better.

At scepticus: indeed, the psyh is extremely important. Tobe succesful, you got to adjust you mindset in a way that it aint used too. Many people fail because this aspect is to hard on them.
You dont necessisarly need a huge bankroll, but it sure is handy. Although many would say its appropirate to have a capital between 25 and 50K, I’ve personally started with only 5k and doing just fine. Having a higher bankroll does save you time.

A plan sure is indespensable. Searching for one that is profitable without neglecting the important basics, is the hard part and very time consuming. But when that is done. It all comes down to apply it, and having the patience and discipline not to deviate from it.
As explaned above my edge isn’t about an assumption of which trade to take. I dont assume anything at all. I just let the market do its thing. The beauty of it is, it doesn’t matter much what the market decides to do. I know i’ll stay in front in the end.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on February 25, 2017, 03:06:32 PM
Grats Geoffrey!  More power to you!  I became enthralled with roulette once I discovered how fast you can make money and I haven't been able to shake that bug.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on February 25, 2017, 09:09:37 PM
Perfectly understanable Reyth. Roulette is a fascinating game :)
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Jake007 on March 03, 2017, 11:56:35 PM
I dont remember see this "other topics" folder, but here I am. I trade stocks, but am well invested in bitcoin also. Almost all of my trading knowledge come from trading bitcoin.

I am self taught and learned all bout technical indicators using a free school website called babypips dot com. Its for forex trading but you can apply the knowledge to anything... forex, crypto currencies, stocks, etc. You'll learn all the basics about technical indicators as well as other important info. The more you learn indicators like MACD, EMA, Stochastics, PSAR, etc. you'll gravitate to one that make the most sense to you and once you master them, trading becomes easy. I have my own favorite indicators and use them in conjunction for buying and selling points.

I trade bitcoin because the up and down waves are more typical, whereas stocks could be quite jagged (unless you are investing big bluechip stocks). However IMO blue chip stocks dont get the big gains like you do with bitcoin in such a short amount of time.

Best site for using technical indicators for me is TradingView dot com. Great site. Tons of indicators. Great community there too. They also chart cryptos like bitcoin, litecoin, etc. Also commodities, indexes, forex, you name it.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on March 05, 2017, 11:07:56 PM
Nice to see someone is actually trading. Thanks for sharing your thouts and insights.

gonna have a look at the names you mentioned. my focus aint on forex and aint into bitcoin . But as you say, you just have to find which part of the markets suites you best as a trader.

I intent to write a excessive book about trading. Combined with a educational program.

Maybe because i'm the kind of guy, always wanting to help people.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: scepticus on March 06, 2017, 12:57:53 AM
Will you be charging for the book and/or the educational programme, Geoff  ?
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on March 06, 2017, 06:48:45 PM
Well the idea of writing started when i began this topic actually. But the effectuation will be something for somewhere in  a further future.

the priority is my own trading for now. I wont get to the writing part until , everything about my own trading style and techniques is in perfect condition.

Until recently i had not invested in reading US books, although i know the quality of content is better than books in my own language. I made that decision because my method works everywhere but the US. So i'm trying to adjust i few things.

To answer your question, honestly i haven't decided yet because of 2 of 3 things

the intention is to cover all the important stuff that is actually usefull, and cut of all the useless crap stuff. most of the time when you purchase a book , only 10 to 20% is actually of value. wouldn't you prefer to have 1 book that covers everything, instead of having to buy  books on  several related stuff, without being sure it will be worth the investment.

the idea of combining that with an educational program / face to face training course. where all that is mentioned in the book is put into pratice. Just to make sure what i state in my book someday isn't just talk. I want everyone that actually tries out my book the be able to implement it on his own, and see for yourself with the training course, that when you put the content of the book in pratice it actually will work.

simply because reading books only wont make you a trader.And only doing papertrading by folowing the markets, without any actual knowledge wont get you anywere.

I wont be 'selling' dreams but the idea is i would be offering all the tools neseccary to succeed.

the things that make me doubt of actually charge or not are the following:

1 stocket market, trading, and technical analysis books in my language are mostly just basic stuff. So over here there is potential for selling a book that covers a lot more and goes deeper.

2 most private traders will tell , why should a succesfull trader write about trading, he doesn't need it?

3 and if a writer is an unsuccesful trader, why bother buying a book?

By this logic there shouldn't be any books about stocks, investing, trading on the market.

that doesn't make sense does it?

By all means when a trader is actually writing a book thats because he thinks he has something of value.

the above statements only come from traders who are frustrated and therefor become extremely sceptical, because they dont succeed.

to give an example Jesse Livermore is considered the best there ever was. Why would anybody clame that? livermore went bankrupt and actualy commited suicide. Although the book about the life of jesse livermore is considered the best book there is. Why would anyone state this as the best book , if its about a person that went  bankrupt several times??

One other example:

Mark Douglas is considered an authority when it comes to the psychology of a trader. his writing style isn't much tho (to much dragging around), but the message holds a lot of value. many have a problem with him tho, because he wasn't succesfull in trading himself (which he admits in his book). But what did he do? he focused on traders that were succesfull, he followed them, and than compared with other traders, only to see what divides succesfull traders from other traders. His conclusion was that the mindset and psychology made a huge difference. so his books are about his own study of succesfull traders, instead of talking from own experience. I guess not many are actually aware of this.

And you have the morrons too that dare to say i havent learned anything from this book (any psychology book about trading). Yeah sure. A psychology trading book, does not learn you how to trade. But it is an important asset which is often overlooked.

Trading is hard, very hard. ecspecially mentally. who neglects this, wont ever become succesfull. this may sound stupid but it all starts with simple things as respecting your sleeping hours, being in shape fysically, and healthy. how you suppose to perform well on the market, if you dont respect these things. Being sharp and alert is of highest importants.

I appologise for dragging on a bit
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: MrPerfect. on March 06, 2017, 07:19:56 PM
 You are simply right, Geoffrey.
    Best thing player can do is to drink a cup of water. Be it roulette, markets or any other game for this matter.
    These who not control themselves about basic things like sleeping or being alert while play, they shouldn't play at all.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: ShadowBlue on March 10, 2017, 02:27:09 PM
My first post here of course not about roulette why ? Very simple trading is so much more profitable then gambling. And it also  much easier to achieve long term profits.

Is trading hard ? No not for me. Found a very good site about trading. Best indicator for trading is PRICE.

I am trading price action higher time frames for big picture view and the 1-hour time frame for entry- and exit points.

Every week different good set ups trading Oil and GBP-JPY. They say the mental side counts for 90% in trading.

Yes it is important. But i became profitable when i only began to buy and sell at very important points.

Those points are all  close and at round numbers and midpoints.

Why because round numbers and midpoints heavily influenced traders and created psychological levels of support and resistance in the markets.

Trading is far better then gambling without any doubts.

But of course playing roulette can be fun at times...  :D
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: scepticus on March 10, 2017, 06:31:12 PM
That you find it easy to profit from trading is not the Norm .ShadowBlue. Most Day Traders lose.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on March 10, 2017, 10:46:30 PM
Can't argue with that Shadowblue. being profitable on trading is less hard than roulette, thats for sure.

In fact i guess any serious gambler could be succesfull in trading. why? because it simply is something you can build skill and expierence. and a gambler is familiar with pressure => bankroll management. Whit roulette your succes is too much build upon luck. an expierence gambler will last longer, but that aint a certainty of being profitable in the end.

why 85 to 90% of traders are losing money has it reasons. i wont bother mentioning, dont feel like repeating myself over and over again.

what is interesting is that being succesfull in trading you aren't bound with the idea that there is only one way to get there.

Seems like shadowman does his business in crude oil and forex. Looks like he's doing well. while i have a different approach. I never trade on those.

But that only confirms a earlier statement of mine. you only have to find what suits you and focus yourself on that particular segment of the market.
Nontheless support and resistance lines sure are an important factor.

To be honest if the serious roulette players  on this forum would put half the effort they do with the roulette game in trading. I'm pretty sure you'll all do well. Some better than other obviously , but chances of being a loser trader would be rather slim.

Concerning the book i intend to write. the ones being serious about trading and want to invest time and work, maybe i'll send a free copy (keep in mind that it will take a lot of work and time to finish it, so dont expect it to get one in the next coming months)

But those who show real interest can always send me PM.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: kav on March 11, 2017, 12:42:39 AM
The one million question is: Could we apply any of the tools, insights and knowledge from trading, to roulette?
Are they completely unrelated in terms of approach and strategies?
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Jake007 on March 11, 2017, 01:06:29 AM
It would be interesting to chart spins and somehow view those spins with moving averages, etc
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on March 11, 2017, 01:08:39 AM
The charting criteria is key.  Sputnik would have alot to offer there as he uses alot of amazing patterns that would show up in charts pretty well I think.  I can chart just about anything.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on March 11, 2017, 01:37:15 AM
it sure is the one million question. who would be able to produce a copy paste strategy from long term profitbale approach in trading onto roulette holds the key to beat roulette on rather continous base.

Charting and using technical indicators could be a good starting point.
I wonder if it could be possible to do. corelations between both are more on the surface rather than deep correlations. thats what make it hard to figure out. If it where easy, i would have come up with a solution long time ago. But that doesn't mean it cant be done for sure.

although my focus is on trading, i find roulette to much fascinating to drop it.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: scepticus on March 11, 2017, 11:59:19 AM
I find it easier to win at roulette than at Trading. Probably because I don't Trade !
Seriously, though, I am suspicious of claims that if you only did This-or That then you will profit.
Talk of the market showing a profit over  a certain lifespan is pretty meaningless IMO because it is a case of " looking in the rear view mirror ". Like roulette it  is a form of gambling as many who thought otherwise  found out.
Still, Good Luck in your  punting Guys . 
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: ShadowBlue on March 11, 2017, 03:16:09 PM
That you find it easy to profit from trading is not the Norm .ShadowBlue. Most Day Traders lose.

Yes i know that most of the traders lose money. But i only looked at traders who are trading successfully.

I learned from what they did and applied it to the system i have learned. So i made some important changes.

And then the system became profitable for me.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on March 11, 2017, 03:18:26 PM
for those looking into charting , i suggest to put the focus on bankroll management because its way more important that acutal hitratio succes. when being able to keep it under controle in very bad runs. thats where the solution is.

at sceps: you are entitled to have an opinion even if  you dont trade. I still respect that.good to hear you're doing well with roulette. Keep it up.
I think its natural for being sceptical i dont blame you, i would be too if someone comes out of the blue stating stock market in beatable and profitable on long term.
Same with all the so called roulette Hg's. i'll only believe it when i see it with my own eyes

You sure are right that being in profit in a certain  timeframe doesn't mean much. cant argue that.
question is what is considered a certain lifespan? 1 month, 6 months, a year, 5 years, 20 years??

there is much more to it that 'do this , then do that' approach, but i get it that you dont mean it in the way as simplistic is sounds.

If it where easy i wouldn't be working on this for years. but eventually i got it.

in 5 year, with 3 years of papertrading and testing i only got one month with a loss. so continued to test it out with real money after that. in the 24 months that follow i only endured two losses ( that small it didn't even hurt)

the ones who follow this topic already know i limit my trades a day (mostly 2 trades)

Lets pretend my trading capital equals a 100 unit roulette bankroll

1) when doing a trade it cost me 2% of my capital, so that equals 2 units of your roulette bankroll

2) i do approx 40 trades a month (could be equalised with 40 spins)

3) you have 3 scenarios: a good trade (hit), a bad trade(losing spin), a break even trade (1 unit on red or black and 1 on high or low, win and lose one: just an example)

4) the bad trade is set at 2% as mentioned already (cut your losses short) when things go against you, you dont lose much.

5) a break even trade is self explanatory. i gain as much as i put into.

6) in my book a succesfull trade start a 10% which can go up to 40% (let your winning trades run). as said before, doesn't matter how much you hit, what matters is when you hit, make it count)

now from my testing results over last 5 years these are the statiscal averages on the way i trade:

a) 70 % of my trades end up as break even, i put 2% on the table and gain 2% back= balance eachother out = total control. nothing has happened.
so 28 of the 40 trades has no effect whatsoever.

b) losing trades are approx about 20% of the trades (average is between 8 and 9)

c) winning trades are approx about 10% of the trades (average is between 3 and 4)

i only need 2  rather small winning trades to have a break even month or little profit, when losing trades are at the rather expected average.

i only produce loss when the average of losing trades is higher than normal, and the % winning trades are below average and rather small. Even so in this scenario with only one good trade of 25% i could end up positive.

as told above, this doesn't happen frequently (3 times out of 60) = 5% of the time. and even if it does , it doesn't effect my capital much, when i do have a losing month it wont be much of a loss anyway

so succesfull ratio aint that important at all. what matters is that the good trades outperform the bad ones. which has happened 95% of the time over a 5 year period.

when you know that 70% of the trades has none effect to your bankroll/capital + the fact that 95% of the time the winning trades/ spins outperform the bad ones, without need of having a high hit % thats what i call having control of your bankroll to an extreme extend.

Seems pretty solid to me.

If we could reproduce something like that on roulette , you'll have a lifetime winner.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: ShadowBlue on March 11, 2017, 03:39:54 PM
The one million question is: Could we apply any of the tools, insights and knowledge from trading, to roulette?
Are they completely unrelated in terms of approach and strategies?

No i don't think so. Why because the big difference between gambling and trading is:
The dice doesn't have a memory, the cards don't have a memory and the wheel doesn't have a memory.

But the markets do have a memory. And all traders who trade in the markets create reliable patterns.
Which repeat themselves over and over again.

But i do agree that roulette also create patterns but the only thing is you never know how long they will last.
If i play a roulette strategie i always search for a table which shows regular hits. And then i will play hit and run.

And go for 3 a 4 hits and stop.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: juice on March 11, 2017, 03:47:56 PM
Shadow, I would encourage you to read the article that Kav, has on the site, about the wheel having no memory. Dr. Ellison would argue differently and makes more than an intelligent point about his opinion on this topic. I for one support Dr. Ellisons observation.     Best Regard, juice
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on March 11, 2017, 04:03:01 PM
I kinda agree with SB in as far as wheel sequences are not the same or even similar to market trading sequences.  Tickseeker proved that with his "blip charting". 

I still believe of course that random sequences have observable patterns and that someone like Sputnik who works heavily in sequence patterns can provide the criteria for successful charting.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on March 11, 2017, 04:09:06 PM
http://www.roulette30.com/2010/04/law-of-statistical-propensity.html (http://www.roulette30.com/2010/04/law-of-statistical-propensity.html)

i think juice is revering to this.

that is why i wont say it aint possible. Because i tend to believe the wheel isn't 100% independent.

But it is true that trading is much more easy to read. Reliability in the market will always be higher when gaining expierence and skill than roulette.

I told this before. Roulette is designed to make you lose mathematically. when history of the market proves, that shares give a 6% profit over a periode of 100 years. This + simple fact that succesfull trading can be learned in less time consuming way roulette ever will be. On top af that roulette still is gambling, they way of succes still is highly dependend on luck.

with trading the market there is NO gambling involved (except binary options) it all comes down to knowledge.

Still even knowing so , i find roulette so exiting :)
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: juice on March 11, 2017, 04:22:50 PM
 http://www.roulette30.com/2014/05/roulette-player-vs-math-professor-dialog.html

Actually, this one is the article I am referring to.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Bayes on March 11, 2017, 04:36:40 PM
It's a fun article to read, but Ellison (not Dr. Ellison BTW, he has no PhD) is completely wrong when he tries to argue that because events  generate stable statistics, this must therefore be proof of dependence between spins. What generates the stable statistics is the law of large numbers, and the stats only equalize when there is the symmetry involved in the setup.

I'm glad that Kav introduced the article by telling readers that it was a sales pitch for his book.  :)

BTW, I'm not saying that there can never be dependence between spins, just that Ellison hasn't made a good argument for it.
 
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: ShadowBlue on March 11, 2017, 04:59:59 PM
I find it easier to win at roulette than at Trading. Probably because I don't Trade !
Seriously, though, I am suspicious of claims that if you only did This-or That then you will profit.
Talk of the market showing a profit over  a certain lifespan is pretty meaningless IMO because it is a case of " looking in the rear view mirror ". Like roulette it  is a form of gambling as many who thought otherwise  found out.
Still, Good Luck in your  punting Guys .

It is a good thing that you are suspicious of claims. I say trading is a skill you can learn.

It has nothing to do with gambling.

i will post a 4-hour chart of GPY-JPY from this week. Pay close attention to the round numbers and midpoints.

Could you find a clear resistance area on this chart?. Is it easy to read this chart?
Did you find any proof that round numbers and midpoints created turning points of Support and Resistance in the market. The white lines are the trades a made this week on the pair.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: scepticus on March 11, 2017, 05:19:28 PM
Thanks Geoff and SB.
To my mind you are gambling when you are not in  possession of all available information.
Not intended to be a criticism -  just a point of view that  is different from yours.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: juice on March 11, 2017, 08:29:12 PM
Shadow, do you ever find yourself cost averaging your trades that do not payoff? It would seem that your triggers are very simple to spot and thus, must be plentiful. OR, do you cut and run on a bad trade? I know a guy that sets such a tight stop loss, that it blows my mind. Just curious.....   Thanks, juice
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on March 11, 2017, 11:49:05 PM
at scep: non taken. i dont mind you having a different point of view. In fact i like it, because it animates things. None of you have to take my word for it.
You are all free to believe what you want. I'm a sceptical mind myself, and i tend to take nothing for granted about stuff i read or hear.

To some degree we could say that life itself is one big gamble. Because its all about making choices and decission making, day in day out.

Do i take this job offer? will i move abroad? which girl i choose to be in a relationship with? the friends we allow in our lives, etc. it all about choises we make. And with each one we make , can turn out good or bad, so we gamble all our lives long, without notice. simple because we dont look at it this way.

Difference is, on how myself and SB look at it. we both see trading as something that can be learned. therefor is more about skill. That is why we dont look at trading as a form of gambling. As Sb has mentioned, as in roulette there are parterns. the advantage we have on market compared to roulette is that the patterns return more frequently, and are easily spotted. To translate that into roulette terms you could say that variance is turning our way, and we take advantage of that situation.

to be honest , i'm sure every responsable gambler who's emotional well balanced could become succesfull at trading if he/she puts his/her mind to it. you wont become good overnight, but you will get there if you really want to.

Anyway i'm not here to convince people. I started this topic , to see if there were other members who show interest. It aint directly related, but sure has similarities.

Second reason is because i know that there's a lot of crap about the subject on the net, and several books just talk nonsense.
that is why the idea has risen to write my own book about it, with youtube channel attached and educational program/ workshops. I know people only start believing when they see it with there own eyes.

But that will be a hell of a lot of work. And i still want to improve my own trading skill, (attending trading shool next year) before starting the youtube channel + educational program. I have started with the book for now. we'll see how long it 'll take.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: juice on March 12, 2017, 01:30:11 AM
Good luck Geoffrey! I know you will do great things. I would love to read your book when it is complete.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: MrPerfect. on March 12, 2017, 12:52:05 PM
 Geoffrey,  you did really good work with this tread. Alerting others of possibility to make money is great in general.
    Do you have any info about qualifying for a status of day trading in UK?  In USA it sims not so easy on the first year...
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on March 12, 2017, 02:26:40 PM
Its so easy to day trade, you don't even need alot of money you can open an account and trade like the mini financials for like only 1K if you want.  Brokerages are just waiting for you to call.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Jake007 on March 13, 2017, 03:54:32 AM
For the past 15 years I used ETrade. I was doing options and other stuff. They even had forex for a while. I always failed if I used margin. Even trading bitcoin I never did well trading on margin. I came to the conclusion to just stick to trading with the money I had and I instantly got better. About 6 months ago I moved over to the app called Robinhood. Im on Android but pretty sure they have iphone app too. There are no trading fees at all if you trade with the app. Saves my a lot of money!
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: MrPerfect. on March 13, 2017, 09:13:35 AM
What l would like to know is how it works from point of taxes.
   Do they send you a bill in the end of account year or is it qualified as gambling?
  I do not like surprises. ...
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: ShadowBlue on March 13, 2017, 10:06:41 AM
Hi Juice,

I have a stop loss of 30 pips and a profit target of 50 pips sometimes more then 50.

I make at least 150 pips a week.  And yes Price Action trading is very simple and effective.

And because i trade Crude Oil and GBP-JPY. I have a lot of good set ups that arise on a weekly basis. 
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: ShadowBlue on March 13, 2017, 12:53:37 PM
Hi Mr Perfect,

I totally agree with Reyht that it is easy to day trade. You can trade with 500 euro. I use an account with leverage. Taxes on trading income differs from country to country. For gambling  and sport betting we pay gambling taxes.

Here in Holland i have to pay 29% taxes for gambling...   But for forex i only have to pay 1.5 % interest taxes.   

In England gambling and trading income is tax free.

 
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on March 13, 2017, 04:07:08 PM
The brokerages do not charge tax in the USA.  Income taxes are always your responsibility.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Jesper on March 13, 2017, 04:10:48 PM
Finance income is taxed here, but below working income. Gambling is taxfree if the registered of the casino is in EU, which near allways is Malta.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on March 13, 2017, 04:19:45 PM
at Juice and Mr Perfect: Thank you for the kind words. Much appreciated :)

I'll do my best not to dissapoint with the book, gonna take my time. No point in rushing things. Wanna cover as much as i can. Be easy to read for novice people and still have a lot to offer for more expierenced people. No idea how the final result will look like, but i do have a draft in my mind about how its gonna be.

at Reyth: its pretty easy to start daytrading in terms of capital yes. A couple of 100 suffice to get you started. the question is will it be enough to cover your needs? thats the starting question before ever considering trading. It is knowing what you wanna get out of it, what you are pleased with. If the answer is : ' a little extra spare money'. Then yes go ahead with small amount.

For me i see daytrading as a second income. so starting with something like 500 bucks to 1 k would not sattisfy my needs.

To be honest i started with 5K, if i could restart things i'd prefer to start with a least double that amount. But things are as they are. doing just fine. although it would have spared me a lot of time. but hey i'm not going to complain.

at Jake: glad to hear and read that you have improved yourself. Trading fees sure are a thing not to take lightly. Paying to much only affects your profits. in the long run this can make a huge difference. Although i dont trade using apps. (i only use them for financial news).

at Mr Perfect: about the taxes, yes indeed its like SB already mentioned. it differs from country to country. so couldn't say for sure what is valid in your particular situation.

Seems like SB is from holland. I'm Belgian, so in some way we are neighbours. Be still law is different.

I dont know for holland but over here, a speculation tax was introduced. Meaning punishing people who daytrade. we would have been obligated to pay 33% tax if we didn't buy and hold for over a certain periode of time (months). But as always, there were ways to get by this. So the gouvernement didn't earn as much as they tought they would, so they've already dropped this rule.
Meaning politicians in my country are a bunch of morrons. The human race has always been able to adapt in changing evironments /situations it was in.

So they didn't forsee that people would change their ways, looking for solutions to the problem opposed.

this is just a little example of how a introduced new law can effect the business you are in.

In general the broker will send you a document which you need to fill in your tax form. I have the luxery to have an ex girlfriend who's in the financial branche, so all things related to taxes, i give into her hands, because she knows everything about it. how to get by some things , cause there are always some backdoors that can save you a lot a money.

But that's just the way it is over here in my country.

How it is in your case? surely will be different. I suggest you go inform yourself with the help of a financial expert. thats way more solid, than reading tons of different stuff on the net that contradict one another.

At Shadow: Glad to see there are others feeling confident about their trading. although i dont calculated average winnings in terms of weeks, for the style i'm trading that time window is to short.i dont count in pips eihter. when i would calculated it that way. my strategy would look very inconsistent at first glance. when i look at the numbers from month to month, i already mentioned what the results are. I hope you continue to do the same. Continu doing a good job and good luck :)

I see you are using leverage. I dont mind that approah. You should do what you feel comfortable with. But i wont advice it for someone not experienced. agreed?

and a question to you to finish off: as you are from holland, what's your opinion of the available books about investing and trading in Dutch? Me personally i dont find them being much of value, besides covering a solid foundation maybe. But they dont dig deep enough for my liking.
 
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: scepticus on March 13, 2017, 04:45:14 PM
I am off on holiday  next week and am loading a few books from Amazon Kindle to read. One deals with finance and investment . "The Long and the Short of it " . Cost £3.79. Am looking forward to reading it  while sunning myself.. 
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on March 14, 2017, 11:43:34 AM
Enjoy your holiday scep, have fun tanning and reading. About the book, i dont have that one on my shortlist, but i do know there are lot references in it about another book , the intelligent investor by benjamin graham.

Anyway let hear your thought on the book when you've finished it :)
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on March 14, 2017, 04:10:11 PM
example of my results this month

made 20 trades

2 good trades (hits) gain 880 euro

6 bad trades (losing) 264 loss

12 break evens = 0

so halfway this month i realised a 616 euro profit.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: scepticus on March 14, 2017, 04:18:45 PM

Enjoy your holiday scep, have fun tanning and reading. About the book, i dont have that one on my shortlist, but i do know there are lot references in it about another book , the intelligent investor by benjamin graham.

Anyway let hear your thought on the book when you've finished it :)

Will do Geoff.
Have resisted the temptation to open it but I think he will have a " broad brush" approach. I think I will need to reread  it - perhaps a few times- to understand it .  Aimed at " Beginners " .
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on March 14, 2017, 04:53:59 PM
always nice to hear the insights of different autors. In a way thats what displeases me about most books (the broad brush approach) in which you mean you expect it'll be kinda general.

In my opinion there are just to many books around of this kind. Nonetheless, still possible that there'll be differents things in it that have some value.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: ShadowBlue on March 15, 2017, 08:26:17 PM
Hi Geoffrey i have only read on some websites and a forum about price action trading.

Some interesting books i did read about trading are: Mark Douglas Trading in the Zone.
And a great interview on youtube:  Mind over market.  And High performance trading from Steve Ward.

And i found some great free articles on learntotradethemarkets from Nial Fuller.
I agree with you that beginning traders not should trade with leverage.

Also before they use real money.  They must first learn to become profitable on a practice acount.

I wish you the best with your book.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on March 15, 2017, 08:29:09 PM
I agree.  Paper trading is absolutely essential to learn the skills to survive under pressure and execute the plan.

Nowadays, the brokerages have free softwares that will assist you greatly in this process.  Back in the day, we used to have to consult the newspaper on a daily basis.

With the free softwares u can trade the market on any day (past results), tick by tick and track your results as if you were actually trading live.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on March 21, 2017, 04:14:17 PM
after being a few days off, because off other priorities.

At shadowblue: yeah man i think al already mentioned him. Douglas to me is a the referencepoint when talking about psychology in trading. Trading in the zone really is a good one.

I had a look at the site you were refering to, you are right. Interseting stuff to read there.

As of now i'm papertrading on US market because i think i'm onto something. Just taking it easy, double check if the hunge i have is correct. But i'm not that accustemed to the high volalility and speed in this market. So i have to get used to this and turn up my handeling speed before actually putting money on the table.

after first days of papertrading , feels like the feeling i got was spot on (made 600 dollars in 3 days within half an hour)  dont care if its papertrading money, I'm just here to  check on something.But i'm not in a rush. I'll take it slow and test this for the remaining of the year, before jumping to conclusions. But things did start off looking promising.
But i'll take my time getting comfortable in this market. Only then you are good to go.

Exactly what i needed for my educational program and book. surely will emplement this.

So yeah reyth papertrading and backtesting sure is essential.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: ShadowBlue on March 24, 2017, 04:48:36 PM
Hi Geoffrey,

It seems you are having fun. Forex is great a lot of opportunities on a daily/weekly basis.

I am used to the the high volatility and speed in the markets. And i love it.  Keep us updated........  ;D

And who knows people are interested in the strategies we use. And do want to learn them.

Nice that kav moved this thread.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on March 29, 2017, 12:11:37 PM
wasn't able to do trading as i used too last couple of days, my dad needed a  helping hand with renewing his roof.

Still was able to make 200 net profit. which make the month total over 800 on my actual account

with papertrading on the US market i realised another 180 net profit= which comes to just under 800 (only on 8 trading days)

about the volatility , seems challenging at first, but getting the hang of it. Curious if my gameplan on the US stays as effective as is has from the start.

today and tomorrow i wont do any trading. busy preparing for the technical analyses convention in paris on friday.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Reyth on March 29, 2017, 02:12:28 PM
Grats! :D
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Jake007 on April 02, 2017, 03:21:00 PM

I love precious metals and have followed and purchased a lot in the past, but realize the movements happen slowly. For example if you used technical analysis and bought gold in early 2016 and then sold in late 2016 you could have made 15-20% (which is not bad at all for precious metals in 10 months). Most blue chip stocks move slow like this too, unless of course you get a quick 2 or 3 bagger from a crazy tip.

If you are good with technical analysis you could do seriously well with crypto currencies, which is what I have moved onto over the past few months. A few examples...

ETH = $12 to $50 in a month (4x money)
DASH = $14 to $117 in one month (8x money)

I think I mentioned before that I bet heavily on Trump and won a bunch, but I also bought "Trumpcoin" before the election. I bought in at 3 cents, it skyrocketed to 55 cents. Clintoncoin also went up before election date. You could have easily bet on both and been ready to dump the loser when results came in.

TRUMP = 3c to 55c (18x money)

About a month ago I bought into LEPEN coin at 0.00000003 and just sold it at 0.00000030... 10x my money right there in a month. I am waiting for TA signals to buy back in. The Macron coin MCRN has also seen 10x profit in the past week. Unbelievable. I could never do this with stocks. Profits are life changing.

- you can trade hundreds of alt-coins on yobit.com
- you can use TradingView charts on coinigy.com for alt coins
- check coinmarketcap.com to look at gainers & losers

Craziness examples of crypto currenices... CHAT coin was up 800% yesterday alone. MUSIC coin was up 600% yesterday. SPHERE coin is up 400% today. BUB coin up 400% today. XBC coin is up 1300% in the last week. Its crazy. You just need some bitcoin to buy some of these alt cryptos.

Hope it helps someone.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: kav on April 02, 2017, 03:59:47 PM
Great post Jake! Thanks
Since we now have a full board dedicated to Trading, don't hesitate to start new topics for specific subjects instead of posting everything in this thread :-)
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: scepticus on April 09, 2017, 05:35:37 PM
 Hi Geoff,
“The Long and the Short of It “ is a good guide to the complexities of finance and investment .It supports your view   that investors should be their own “financial advisor “ and gives advice on how best to do this.
I don’t think, though, that he would approve of you paying for advice as he thinks that all you need can be found these days online -  and he has a poor opinion of the financial advice sector.
While he is against  betting on  roulette his view on the use of probabiities  and that profitable investment involves risk and the return on investment is uncertain chimes with my view about roulette. I think that all too many roulette bettors focus too much on return and not enough on risk.

Like in roulette there are people in the financial sector that trail through historic  series trying to find  systems that ,  in the past , have yielded substantial profits and conclude  that they will be profitable in the future.
Overall I think that it gives a good overview of the financial system and would be of interest to those thinking of investing in financial products and even those who merely want to broaden their knowledge of the financial scene.
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Geoffrey on April 20, 2017, 12:30:53 AM
sorry for the delayed answer. Thx for your feedback on the book sceps. Feels like a good book with much general content.

Yeah its true i dont think very highly off the so called 'financial experts' looks like i dont stand alone with that opinion. Good to know.

I'm a 100% pro educating yourself believer, this will take much time, but it's far better in the long run , that you can develop your own knowledge and skills, instead of taking someone elses word for granted.

The fact that i do spend money, when maybe not neccesary, consists of 2 reasons.

1. Maybe a bit old fashioned, but i do spend most of the day behind a laptop, and for reading i simply prefer a book. so i calculate what the extra expence of buying something is. And decide if it is worth it or not.

2. The trading course/school i will attend is not from some scammer 'charlatan' It's from a trader who won serveral gold medals in the Technical Analyses Competion at the Paris Trading Exibition.

The only reason i do spend money, is because of personal preferences (reading a book instead of a screen) and the certainty that i'm convinced the trading school will make me a better trader that i am right now. Even if it were by a couple of percentages in skill, it'll be worth the investment

The overal feel of your posts suggest that you enjoyed reading it, which is good to hear. I'll put the book on my 'optional' list :)
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: scepticus on April 20, 2017, 03:46:55 PM

Hi Geoff
I certainly wasn't implying that  the tutor on your intended course was a scammer. I think he is entitled to ask for payment for passing on his " knowledge gained " .  I think that technical analysis is a field open to differing interpretations so this guys view on it should be interesting. Hope it will be worth the expense.
As for the book " The Long and the Short of it " I did find it enlightening but then I am no financial expert !.
And it is only one guy's view after all - but it does give food for thought .     
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: Jake007 on May 12, 2017, 04:24:13 PM
Hey guys... you're welcome...

http://traders-library.com/Trading%20Books/

 :)
Title: Re: Trading on the financial Market?
Post by: scepticus on May 12, 2017, 04:55:52 PM

Thanks Jake .
Wow !
Some list. Will take some reading of it to choose which to read .Not that I trade . Just interested in how others lose their money  !!
As many - if not more - ideas in trading as in roulette  ! LOL
Nice offer of   free downloads .
Thanks again .