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Roulette Forum => Casino Lounge => Topic started by: kav on April 12, 2016, 10:21:41 PM

Title: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: kav on April 12, 2016, 10:21:41 PM
It is ready.
This is a classic roulette progression and maybe you are familiar with it. It was created by a famous mathematician who defended the gambler's fallacy. We offer an in-depth description, including different scenarios and variations that is still worth reading, even if you know the rules already.

D'Alembert and reverse d'Alembert roulette betting systems (http://www.roulette30.com/win/how-to-use-and-reverse-the-dalembert-roulette-betting-system)

Enjoy reading!
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: Reyth on April 12, 2016, 10:37:00 PM
One issue I have noticed so far is that in your examples of spins & wins to gain profit appear to based on an EC bet when the D'Alembert can also be used with great success even on single straight up bets which will pay much more and allow many more spins while allowing profitability with a single win.

I will update this post with anything else I notice.  Enjoying this article so far!

Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: kav on April 12, 2016, 11:02:03 PM
Good point Reyth, i will clarify that the d'Alember was initially planned for even money bets.
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: Reyth on April 13, 2016, 12:52:57 PM
Btw, you may have missed this post:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=636.msg8344#msg8344 (http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=636.msg8344#msg8344)

I find the OP VERY informative as I record my ramblings over several days of examining how the system fails.
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: kav on April 13, 2016, 02:31:18 PM
Btw, you may have missed this post:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=636.msg8344#msg8344 (http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=636.msg8344#msg8344)

I find the OP VERY informative as I record my ramblings over several days of examining how the system fails.
Indeed it is a great post - I added it.
Thanks
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: Reyth on April 13, 2016, 03:50:03 PM
Actually if you want to see my entire investigation of the D'Alembert progression, in order, its this:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=632.msg8263#msg8263 (http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=632.msg8263#msg8263)

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=636.msg8344#msg8344 (http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=636.msg8344#msg8344)

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=643.msg8501#msg8501 (http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=643.msg8501#msg8501)

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=648.msg8589#msg8589 (http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=648.msg8589#msg8589)

This shows all of my progress from the beginning to the very end.
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: scepticus on April 13, 2016, 05:18:07 PM
It is ready.
This is a classic roulette progression and maybe you are familiar with it. It was created by a famous mathematician who defended the gambler's fallacy. We offer an in-depth description, including different scenarios and variations that is still worth reading, even if you know the rules already.

D'Alembert and reverse d'Alembert roulette betting systems (http://www.roulette30.com/win/how-to-use-and-reverse-the-dalembert-roulette-betting-system)

Enjoy reading!

I use only flat bets because I don't NEED  to use progressions - and progressions reduce the size of stakes . I am not totally opposed to progressions  as I have said before  that it can be used
with a proven marginally profitable method .
I think the method you have outlined - used with a good Bet Selection - can be EXTREMELY profitable .
 I am confident that it could be used with a MAXIMUM of  6 steps and thus could overcome  " the series  from Hell " .
I will certainly get some "prior spins" or  use an RNG to get a feel  for what I have in mind.
So, thanks for that, kav.
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: Reyth on April 13, 2016, 05:30:28 PM
No doubt some genius is required here.  Looking forward to seeing what you come up with. :)
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: kav on April 13, 2016, 06:33:07 PM
Thanks scepticus for your kind words.

Reyth, maybe it is a good idea to add a link to your bullseye system in the main posts of you other d'Alembert systems?
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: Reyth on April 13, 2016, 08:10:19 PM
Ok will do!
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: scepticus on April 13, 2016, 08:18:51 PM
No doubt some genius is required here.  Looking forward to seeing what you come up with. :)

No genius required Reyth.
Just experience. Many years ago  I bet R/B with level stakes and built up profits and , unlike some people here, I tell it as it is .
I think I can do it mainly within FOUR bets so I shall try that first. I intend using a  Gala Casino, Gibraltar's disc that I have. 

Not so good as I thought guys though I think it confirms my view that EC are best avoided. With a bit of work I think it will still be profitable.
Started with 4  seed  ( virtual ) numbers to indicate what to bet on the next 3 spins.
Used a 6 step bet 1-2-3-4-5-6 or prior win.
Hit 5 zeros.
At 100 bets was losing Five and a Half  units.
Needed 124 bets to win Point 5  (.5 ) of a unit.
Not so good.
Of 61 series of 6 ( or prior win) no less than 51 won on either the first or second bet - with 10 losing the 3 units - and usually  more.
( largest losing sequence was 7 , winning on 8th bet )
Analysis of these results suggest that  you only use a 2 step
1-2 unit progression i.e. 3 unit  but waiting for a win in six or 6 step loss before restarting if losing the 3 units.
 This would have yielded a 21 unit profit for about 4 hours work !

A small sample but does , I think, prove the merit of my Guaranteed 5in 7 Chart/Block.
You would need to test it for yourself to find out if it  is suitable for you.
 Not for me though . I prefer Higher Odds for Higher Risk!

Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: dobbelsteen on April 14, 2016, 08:19:34 AM
In my blog I have posted the results of a D~Alembert sample for the ECs.With my Excel program I can research many samples before I draw my conclusions.

Reyth  it is not so difficult to write a D`Alembert Excel program for the double or single street. The only thing is you much research a very large sample. A player can not play samples more than 200 spins, a computer does.
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: Reyth on April 14, 2016, 12:02:30 PM
I played over 2000 spins in a single session using D'Alembert. :D
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: scepticus on April 14, 2016, 02:09:35 PM
I played over 2000 spins in a single session using D'Alembert. :D

Reyth
Some of us such as Dobbelsteen , Harry J , Palestis  and myself argue that we should only consider
"short  series" because we only play in short sessions . Moreover, Mathematicians accept that we can win in the  Short Term. We have found that " The Law of Large Numbers " does not apply in the short term.
It can be argued that many Short Runs add up to a Long Run but no one seems able to say when that Long Run ends so this is  a hypothesis until proven by empirical evidence  - eventually .
You seek to do this by Long Trials but never seem to reach a definite conclusion. What we have asked you to do is break up your Long Runs into manageable Short Series which should show whether our  Short Terms  hypotheses are indeed " probable ".
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: Reyth on April 14, 2016, 05:22:37 PM
The purpose of my simulations is not the same as yours and neither am I a system critic.  I just reveal what is possible from the wheel according to reasonable expectation.
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: dobbelsteen on April 15, 2016, 09:09:53 AM
Reyth why do you not publish as diagrams the results of your 2000 spins sample
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: Reyth on April 15, 2016, 01:38:50 PM
Reyth why do you not publish as diagrams the results of your 2000 spins sample

Awesome idea Dobble!

I DO have the records, spin by spin!

As you might imagine, its not a small task, so let's do this as time permits!

Thanks for the suggestion Dobble! :D
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: Reyth on April 15, 2016, 11:27:33 PM
I have created a reader that outputs to Bullseye_Fail_Parsed which isolates the following data points:

spin number (result), bet selection, bet amount, win/loss

The spin number (result) will be a number between 0 and 36
The bet selection will always be 17
The bet amount will be expressed in a decimal format and will run from 0.01 to an unlimited amount (1000.00 for example)
win/loss is expressed as 0.00 as a loss and anything else is a win expressed in decimal format such as 1.40

Dobble can you ouptut this data in a graphical format?
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: Reyth on April 18, 2016, 10:58:16 PM
Here is the latest installment from the original author (his account is up to 78K now after starting with only 1700 around 4 months ago).

Code: [Select]
5.5.6
7.7.8
9.9.10
11.11.12
13.13.14
15.15.16
17.17.18
19.19.20
21.21.22
23.23.24
25.25.26
27.27.28
29.29.30
31.31.32
33.33.34
35.35.36
37.37.38
39.39.40
41.41.42
43.43.44
45.45.46
47.47.48
49.49.50

This is the progression instead of the standard +1 on a loss and -1 on a win, you move forward in the progression on a loss and move back 8 spaces in the progression on a win.

The bet selection is your favorite DS.

He is advocating what I call "small ball" where you take small winnings and end your session (reset the table seed).  He also advocates when sessions that "bog down" in the lower 1/2 of the progression chart, just take your losses there, end the session and start back up in the same place in the progression but with a new session seed.

Obviously the session ends anytime you lose on the last progression step.
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: dobbelsteen on April 19, 2016, 11:19:37 AM
In my blog you can find the results of the D~Alembert method for a DS.

Samples of more than 300 spins are senseless. D`Alembert is only suitable for ECs The loss streaks for other chances are mostly too large.

For the interested members my Excel program is free available.
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: dobbelsteen on April 20, 2016, 07:57:18 AM
The diagrams of these samples show agai and again my statement that every system can end with a profit or a loss in a short run sample. The only way to make a profit is to use the imbalance of the random sequence and hit and run. Inspite of this certainty the outcome of the tests can abroad your knowledge and skill.
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: Harryj on April 28, 2016, 07:43:40 PM
    Sorry guys I have been unavailable for a couple of weeks. I would like to add my 2 cents worth to this important thread.

    First thanks Kav for an excellent article. I have a couple of points, but found it well presented.

[1] The D'Alembert was originally designed for an equal number of wins and losses. This of course is impossible in the long run.  The D'Alembert, like all progressions, suffers from the problem of "wasted wins". How can a win be wasted ? Well in progression play each win MUST cancel more than I loss. Or the equation will not balance ! The modern idea of stopping the pyramid before it reaches the ground (equal wins and losses) does save a few wasted wins. ie the pyramid is halted as soon as it is in profit rather than after an equal number of wins and losses.

[2]  the situation can be further improved by treating the 1st 3 spins as a martingale. Bet 3 only breaks even, but restarting the progression at that point is more profitable. Run through Kav's examples and you will see what I mean.

[3]  Point [2] raise the question why wait until you are in profit ? Every extra spin risks the pyramid rising again.  Stop and restart when you break even. If the next spin was going to be a win, it will still be a win.  In the long run less risk means surer  profits.
      Personally, if the pyramid has lingered, I stop and restart before I break even. Sacrificing a couple of chips to reduce my risk !

    Play Kav's examples using these rules and you will see what I mean.

      Harry
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: kav on April 28, 2016, 07:48:44 PM
Thanks Harry for your very useful comments on the d'alembert (http://www.roulette30.com/win/how-to-use-and-reverse-the-dalembert-roulette-betting-system).
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: Jesper on April 29, 2016, 03:29:21 AM
I have used this a lot on DS. And on singles. It works fine and can give very good gain. But soon or later (often later) a very bad run will hit. I had once 90 misses in a row. The chance that happen is very remote, but it will happen.

I think d'Alembert works better on singles than EC. A good thing is it gives best return if we win at spin 36 37 on singles. When on high stakes, it is possible to split the pile, trying another spot, or leave the sleeper. Or move to hot spots often.

DS played reverse is safer. Start with 6 units, add using a slow progression on a hit until plus. It takes more time, but on a NOZ it works out well.  For example every 5Th spin on a DS add  1,2,3,4,5,6,7.  A large bank is needed, and can realistic only be used on a table with low value chips and high table limit. The casino I use have 60000 spread for DS. If trying many DS at the time the bank need to be very strong. I could start using 5 DS, but remove some after a win on them. Stop on a decent plus, and not try to empty the table.

Even if we use 0.01 or 0.05 chips we are in practice playing most of the time with Euro.
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: kav on April 29, 2016, 05:50:01 AM
Yes, the higher the payout, the slower the progression should be.
Title: Re: D'alembert and Reverse d'Alembert progressions explained
Post by: Reyth on April 29, 2016, 09:52:14 AM
I did something like that with Bullseye but just like you said Jesper, eventually you get a very bd run... :(

I like your suggestions for changing things up and moving them around etc.