Author Topic: Dobbelsteen`Blog  (Read 102831 times)

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dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2014, 01:46:06 PM »
Every system without a plan or strategy should fail.

A player shall always play nano sessions.
The outcome of the roulette has a character of a  wave with crests and wave length.
The nano sample has large crests and a short wave length. A strategy uses these features.

A very dull strategy with a guarantee profit is flat betting after a crest of about 12 units. After an unpredictable number of spins  a positive crest shall change in a negative crest. In a macro sample the wave length can be   much more than 100 spins.
 

ahraneas

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #16 on: December 05, 2014, 04:29:27 PM »
Hello Kav, Rom, and Dobbelsteen and others,

I like to thank you all for welcome me to this forum. Dobbelsteen has kinda told me about this forum, and we met 5 months ago in Zandvoort at the casino. I am a pretty social person, so we sat next to eachother and had a few nice chats on a few nights out. I am living in Haarlem, and i am 27. Usually i take my Prius to drive to Zandvoort to gamble there. I find it very difficult to exactly see, and learn what i need to know for the roulette table and the knowledge behind it. On school i never really could calculate very well, languages and history lessons used to be more my cup-of-tea!

If you do know the very basic of the game, where should i really start reading about the deeper things? The forum is full with nice info, but it's all so detailed and long. My apologies but i found it really difficult to see which or what methods are born out of which or what motivation.

Kind regards,

Rick.
 

kav

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #17 on: December 05, 2014, 05:23:25 PM »
Hello Rick,

First of all it is nice to meet people who have actually laid money on a roulette table. Believe it or not there are people in roulette forum that have never been to a casino.
Anyway, math knowledge is important, but you don't have to be a math professor. Basic gamble math is not that hard. In order to start understanding what a roulette system is and how it works I would suggest to start by reading the systems presented in our main site: Roulette Systems
« Last Edit: December 06, 2014, 03:02:29 PM by kav »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #18 on: December 06, 2014, 10:54:01 AM »
Flat betting on every chance as a system is a very dull method.

 Do you believe in the equilibrium rule than you can wager flat betting with an idea.

On the Multi Roulette I watch very frequent the stats of the last 50 spins.

The differences between the ECs is very rare 0 and seldom more than 12. Shows the stats 18 Red and 31 Black and one zero, with a minimum of risk I predict a profit within the next spins.
 

Real

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #19 on: December 06, 2014, 04:17:22 PM »
Dobbelsteen,

Observing those stats is utterly worthless.  Read on the gambler's fallacy to understand why.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #20 on: December 08, 2014, 10:11:30 AM »
Losers will always refer to the Gamblers Fallacy.

 All successful players shall lose on the long run.

It is very hard to discuss roulette with disappointed gamblers.

For a statistical player the Gamblers Fallacy is a big lie. I agree the statements in that paper.
 

ahraneas

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #21 on: December 09, 2014, 12:36:31 AM »
Betting on an even bet, should never give you a 100% win chance (duh, logic). But the Martingale betting technique, is something that actually is a proven method to work correctly in favor of the player. The fact is that if you bet on an even bet, (example red), there is ALWAYS a chance the next 35 spins will be black. Meaning that you lose 35 times. But if you do have infinite funds, or just a hell-load of money, the chance is very VERY big that within those losing spins, just red will fall. This said, i believe in a winning method in roulette. Casino's ward themselves for this betting technique. But this is not always the case. I have alot of money on my bank. I consider making money this way. I don't wanna become arrogant, i just wanna take part in the discussion here on the forum. These last days i centralized roulette in my life. I do alot of research. ~*Ahra.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2014, 12:39:36 AM by ahraneas »
 

Romn.Paras

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #22 on: December 09, 2014, 01:20:55 AM »
Hello Ahraneas.  Welcome to the forum. Feel free to look at all of the discussions, articles,  and posts. Kav has put together a very professional forum and site. There are many wonderful resources and articles to read here. Please don't hesitate to ask any of us if you have any questions or feel free to share some systems or methods you like.  What is fun about roulette is that there is no one correct way to play.  I look forward to watching you succeed on your journey.  Once again, welcome. 

I have attached a pdf of a copy of one of my favorite books. It explains the game well and I use it as a corner stone for some of my personal systems.  Plus it is a fun read as well.  This book was written in 1910.

One of the most helpful hints I can give from experience is that you have to go to the casino IN PERSON. This is why I have so much respect for Kav and others on the forum. They put their money where their mouth is just like I do .  Play for real, not online or on a computer. There are other variables that you will experience in real life that are not factored into a computer. 

« Last Edit: December 09, 2014, 01:35:38 AM by Romn.Paras »
 

ahraneas

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #23 on: December 10, 2014, 02:06:23 AM »
Thanks for your kind words. Real nice to see that the people here are so kind and friendly. The forum indeed looks very nice and professional. I will look into the PDF file you have sant. I will let you know when i have read it.

Kind regards,

~*Ahra
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #24 on: December 10, 2014, 02:54:30 PM »
Is the initial bankroll relevant?

Some of you publishes here on this forum their ideas and strategies and systems. The bankroll becomes high priority. I approach the roulette as a game. My intension is, to beat the HE. I am succeed, when I have a positive balance of my units at the end of a session. I do not think or compute the roulette with money.

The initial bankroll is total irrelevant. There is no connection between the bankroll and the HE. Much more important is the result in relation with the total number units you have bet. With an initial number of units of 200 with some luck, you can bet during a session more than 3000 units. The HE predict a loss of about 81 units. You are a very good player, if you realize a profit of about 2%. From this point of view be satisfied with a profit of 60 units.

When you want to double the initial 200 units, you have to bet 10000 units!!!!
 

ahraneas

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #25 on: December 11, 2014, 10:34:09 AM »
Hello everyone. I wanna read the PDF file first that was linked a few days ago to me. I have to study this, but i must have some time (i'm not much of a reader). Just am here to let you all know that i keep following the forum, and that i am very interested in the future posts.

~*Ahra.
 

Real

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #26 on: December 13, 2014, 10:50:07 PM »
Quote
But the Martingale betting technique, is something that actually is a proven method to work correctly in favor of the player.

Sorry, but on the contrary, it most certainly does NOT work.  It has been mathematically proven to fail.

The reason:  (the sum of all bets in the Martingale) x (house edge) = negative long term expectation.

Quitting while ahead, setting loss limits, waiting for "triggers" is nothing more than the gambler's fallacy.  It is nothing more than a fools folly.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #27 on: December 14, 2014, 01:37:11 PM »
Real you always repeat the same statements ,we already know. The experience players warn the starting players for the danger of the martingale bet.

The mathematical loss of a roulette system is always the house edge multiplied by the total amount of the betting. This is not alone for martingale but for every system. Wheel watching and AP are not systems. These methods have also a negative profit percentage.

My Martingale system has an expectation that an event will not occurs on 2^20 spins with a risk to lose of 1023 units. There is never a waiting time for an opportunity to bet.

You have never taken the troubles to research the program.
 

Real

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #28 on: December 15, 2014, 06:37:28 AM »
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Wheel watching and AP are not systems. These methods have also a negative profit percentage. -dobbelsteen 

No they do have an edge.  That's why we call them "advantage play".
Quote
My Martingale system has an expectation that an event will not occurs on 2^20 spins with a risk to lose of 1023 units. There is never a waiting time for an opportunity to bet.You have never taken the troubles to research the program. -dobbelsteen


Sorry dobbelsteen, but you have never taken the time to fully study the math.  Your Martingale will not work, for the reasons that have already been stated by countless mathematicians time and time and time again. 


-Real 
« Last Edit: December 15, 2014, 06:39:15 AM by Real »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #29 on: December 15, 2014, 11:15:12 AM »
Real you have never explained your EDGE. You are not the only AP player who claims an EDGE. How can an AP player ascertain his edge.
You have never the courage to research my program. I have never claimed my program is a HG.