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Author Topic: Triggers in Systems  (Read 1812 times)

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MrPerfect.

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #60 on: December 05, 2017, 10:14:55 AM »
 Mickey,  the thing is... l need determined people to push my own understanding further. I arrived to the point where my conceptual knowlidge can replace need for taking data, so l can win with that very minimum l get in few spins.
     It's profitable, but unfortunately it shuts the door for detailed studies for me. I used to be recearcher, now lm just a player.
   That's why all this woodoo with vb lessons and rc sells. I crave detailed studies and challenges for a mind, if not, l get bored. 
    Education about the game that you could get with me will economise you decades of frustration and losses. It all comes for very modest price just to maintain you motivated...
 I need players as much as players need me and lm jenuinely interested to make them succeed. 
    I could give you contacts of people who really know me from this aspect so you could ask their opinion. ... up till now there were not many to desist due to their own limitations ( no patience...) , and none due to mine.
   Yes, it's agressive propaganda ;)
 
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Mike

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #61 on: December 05, 2017, 11:33:14 AM »
   It happens that even basic probability does change from one spin to other. Other spin can simply belong to another category of spins that produce different ball jump, different bias pattern, or are more likely to throw ball from roulette completely to the floor.
   Simple example : dealer change or ball change. Do you see, "simple" probability,  as you call it, does not govern this game and is very weak math model used as refference, not as an ultimate solution to explain the game.
    Could you demonstrate, please,  how would you use chi- square to see independence of one spin from other? It's something l can not even remotely imagine, so l would love to learn.

No probability "governs" anything because the probability changes according to the information we have. There is no "true" probability, there are just probability models which may or may not accurately model the setup you're interested in. The random variable you have in mind for VB is naturally going to be different than the one which is appropriate for modeling the distribution of numbers generated by the roulette wheel. In the latter case, the binomial distribution is a good model, even for a relatively small number of spins.

As well as requiring that  spins be independent, it also requires that the probability does NOT change between outcomes. If this were not the case then this distribution would not be an appropriate model for roulette outcomes and would not "predict" the distribution as well as it does (I made a similar argument in Thomas' thread regarding independence).

Regarding the chi-square test, I don't have the time to post a complete example but  there is one here.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2017, 11:48:57 AM by Mike »
 
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Mike

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #62 on: December 05, 2017, 11:37:48 AM »
Mike you are asking for an example from Dobble.
Can you provide an example ( as it has been asked many times), that proves your claim? Or the math experts claim? 

Sure. Choose any bet you like which you think will be improved by using virtual losses and I'll show you it makes no difference. Don't make it too complicated though because I do have a life outside this forum and don't want to code anything which takes too long.

 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #63 on: December 05, 2017, 12:07:18 PM »
Mike, sample you provide for a chi- sqware test is a joke. Very sad one, lm not even laughing,  lm just disapointed. 
   I do not "imagine" anything like " random variable" for vb. You read too much books that you do not understand.  I retake my expressed opinion that you are good in physics. Judging by your posts you have no clue what it is about. You probably red in books or forums, but you are not an actual player ( the guy who apply), correct me if lm wrong, but l think you wouldn't. Truth is a qween, right, at least l hope it is so..
    So why wouldn't you start from now on your posts with something like " on my personal opinion based on Internet research..."
     It's too much ball for you Bro,  unless you wanna show the game!!!
    Don't take it personal, lm just being "impartially objective".   Things do not add up for a real player tolk. ...
   I like you , bro,  despite the opinions you express. Piece/love & rock'n'roll. ...
 
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Mike

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #64 on: December 05, 2017, 01:15:41 PM »
Mr P,

What is your problem with the site I linked to? Be specific.

My confidence in your knowledge of stats is falling fast. Apparently you don't even understand what a random variable is.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #65 on: December 05, 2017, 01:44:52 PM »
There is no "random variable" in roulette. Most of variables has very particular property to f*** your bankroll, if you do not account to them.
    Mike, you are not player. That's why you do not understand my frustration with folks that post what they think is " right". Book knowlidge is what casinos have themselves... that's why l beat them in their own game. I'm not theory guy, lm the one who go to casino to take money for current expenses.  It's my atm. Right now lm posting from casino and l already got my money for today in 15 min of play... betting 3 sec in the spin... just think what it mean.
   I do not speak about "knowlidge" taken out of books or uni...  l tolk what l do. Do you understand the difference?
    Take rotor speed as " random variable" and think wich results you will get. It's just one of variables that kill non players.
    I got low tolerance for ignorance,  please think and use common logic before posting. It becomes frustrating and annoying. 
    I have nothing egainst website you posted, just not interested. I thank you anyway and hold possibility to change my mind in the future... but for now lm too busy to reconsider it.
   Big hug , Bro,  kill them on sports!!! Every time you win ,lm genuinely happy for you. FINGERS CROSSED... ;)

 
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Mike

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #66 on: December 05, 2017, 02:15:51 PM »
Mr P,

Apparently you were banned from the myrulet forum. No offense, but I think I'm beginning to understand why. Even if had the inclination to join your team I don't think I'd last very long; you'd drive me nuts.  ;)

Anyway, good luck with your betting.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #67 on: December 05, 2017, 02:27:15 PM »
Mike, l drive many people nuts... it's because lm true Russian.  I speak truth..it's my only weapon. it's a product not particularly wellcome in current society...  no one likes people saying truth.
   However, as a team coordinator, you will never find better, for reasons mentioned above. You do not drive me nuts, l like you. Remember,  best friend ever is the one who is open with you, even if it's hearts sometimes....
 
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Reyth

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #68 on: December 05, 2017, 05:29:21 PM »
Simulations will show triggers having no effect on the outcome over millions of spins but I repeat, in my games I lose rapidly and largely (relatively speaking) when I don't use triggers.  This is because, as Pales stated, the chances of achieving a loss are more probable prior to a trigger and vice-versa.

Regardless of the simulation/long-term theory, our games on the felt deal first with the practical results that apply to our small sessions.  Its just a factual and practical reality that we face as actual players.

If in war as generals, we see companies going head on into battle getting slaughtered but other companies that use flanking to attack and they wipe out the enemy, which should we choose? 

Playing "theoretically correct" is like the British marching into battle with a stiff upper lip, do or die versus the Americans who fought more like the Indians, hiding behind trees and rocks. :)

Its just about dealing in practical reality & facts in the immediate battlefield, which is our sessions.

We must also realize that our critics do not have our best interests at heart, they do not actually CARE about system play; their agenda is to push/sell AP as the only way to win.  This assertion is of course objectively impossible to prove and therefore is their opinion, which they tout as fact.

Attempting to crush the innovative spirit to create successful systems is an intellectual crime imo.  All I would ask is that AP's tone it down a notch from their false "AP is the only way as objective fact" and actually contribute to this forum in a helpful way.

At least Mr. P has an interest in relevant statistical facts concerning system play, even though he doesn't personally believe in it or play using it.  He should be the example for all AP's.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2017, 05:44:01 PM by Reyth »
 
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MickyP

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #69 on: December 05, 2017, 06:32:43 PM »
Mickey,  the thing is... l need determined people to push my own understanding further. I arrived to the point where my conceptual knowlidge can replace need for taking data, so l can win with that very minimum l get in few spins.
     It's profitable, but unfortunately it shuts the door for detailed studies for me. I used to be recearcher, now lm just a player.
   That's why all this woodoo with vb lessons and rc sells. I crave detailed studies and challenges for a mind, if not, l get bored. 
    Education about the game that you could get with me will economise you decades of frustration and losses. It all comes for very modest price just to maintain you motivated...
 I need players as much as players need me and lm jenuinely interested to make them succeed. 
    I could give you contacts of people who really know me from this aspect so you could ask their opinion. ... up till now there were not many to desist due to their own limitations ( no patience...) , and none due to mine.
   Yes, it's agressive propaganda ;)

MePerfect, I give all people the benefit of doubt. I treat everyone with respect but trust none; the result of hard lessons I've learnt in life. I consider myself an intelligent person and reading between the lines is second nature to me. I appreciate your straightforwardness as I anticipated that sooner or later I would be confronted by one of the tutors on the forum with a request to consider their course.

I think any course adds to ones knowledge base, however, an invitation to become part of a team should be presented outlining the details of such a collaboration.

I have been a professional photographer for most of my working life and am comfortable in my own skin. I'm a creative person and prefer working alone. My roulette quest is a solo endeavour. I don't  take kindly to authority and pretty much create my own adventure through life. I see roulette the way I see a good photograph; the more simple the more powerful a photograph is.

I have a genuine interest in learning more about vb but for now I'm comfortable with my simple yet effective approach to the game. Anyone who reads my posts will be able to get a general idea of my approach.
 
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Mike

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #70 on: December 05, 2017, 07:49:24 PM »
Simulations will show triggers having no effect on the outcome over millions of spins but I repeat, in my games I lose rapidly and largely (relatively speaking) when I don't use triggers.  This is because, as Pales stated, the chances of achieving a loss are more probable prior to a trigger and vice-versa.

How do you explain the discrepancy? There shouldn't be one. Are you measuring this (lack of) effect in exactly the same way in both situations? If there truly is a difference then it's worth investigating why.

Quote
Attempting to crush the innovative spirit to create successful systems is an intellectual crime imo.  All I would ask is that AP's tone it down a notch from their false "AP is the only way as objective fact" and actually contribute to this forum in a helpful way.

I think that's a bit harsh. Neither I, Mr P, or Real are deliberately setting out to crush anyone's spirit, although you may perceive it that way. In fact, the only one who has an agenda here is Mr P, and he freely admits it.

The only real problem I have with systems is the trigger thing, I have to admit it's a pet peeve of mine. It just does my head in when I read about yet another system which uses past spins to trigger a bet. I'm more relaxed about other aspects of systems like progressions. And triggers are not the only way of selecting your bets (apart from AP I mean). Just look at Jesper; he's doing pretty well and doesn't use triggers at all.
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #71 on: December 05, 2017, 07:56:44 PM »
Mickey,  l sell knolidge and tools that player really need. Money in the middle is really to filter these who has no patience to really learn something. ...
   I'm a data analitic. ..  game data analytic.  I charge 10% of win for my help to devise proper strategy of attack and betting plan.
   That's all about it.
  I look for future sindicate owners. I'm after creating franchise of roulette player sindicates...
 

Sputnik

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #72 on: December 05, 2017, 08:09:13 PM »


Mike one thought that strike my head about past results.

You know traders setting odds for different games and use value betting to do so.
They look at past meetings and the present shape of the team, they look at damage, diseases among other things.
So they get a true picture how to estimate each teams future performance.

Now for example team A maybe get the odds 2.10 and the other team B the odds 1.65
The sportbetting site or bookie take a fee when you place a bet.

In the long run the majority odds at 1.65 versus 2.10 should win.
So the trader use different tools setting odds then just value betting, sometimes they are lazy and just follow the sportbetting market who already done the value betting analysis.

One cool thing is that you can get into the head of a trader and measuring there skills setting accurate odds.
You can see how many times they are right and wrong just like a coin flip.
I use STDS and past results to see how accurate they estimate each game and know the common STDS values for failure and succés.

And now i use the two words you hate - past results and triggers ...
I see it like a stockmarket with rising prices and falling prices.

Cheers
 
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MickyP

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #73 on: December 05, 2017, 08:25:16 PM »
Interesting MrPerfect. As I stated in a different post, I'll follow your posts closely and that is what I'll do for now. We will continue this discussion at a later date.

Is it still an agenda if intention is clearly stated?

Mike, your contribution to this discussion appears to be laced with an agenda. Your agenda is to contaminate a meaningful discussion that will deprive  others of their free will to decide for themselves whether to use triggers in systems or not. You want to introduce  your opinion as the only approach to winning roulette. It is not the only gospel to winning. However, you did contribute to answering the original question even if it was to shut down the discussion. Did you do this to spare us the pain of defeat? I wonder!
 
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Reyth

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #74 on: December 05, 2017, 10:10:47 PM »
I agree with you that the discrepancy IS worth investigating.  I explain it with simple probability & statistics, where .9916 < .999 and therefore occurs more commonly.  Over time the difference in the statistics is mitigated but that doesn't mean that there is not an objective difference between the two approaches.

I don't have a choice, like I stated above, if I march into battle with my troops (bankroll) according to the British model, I am more likely to get my men killed.  I prefer to watch the other companies get killed and my men flank to achieve the victory.
 
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