Author Topic: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?  (Read 28 times)

kav

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Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« on: January 05, 2017, 09:39:47 AM »
Why AP doesn't work:
Practical reasons
Psychological reasons
Legal reasons
Mathematical reasons

Advantage Play, probabilities and gambler's fallacy


Probabilities and Gambler's Fallacy
Many AP players are throwing around the "gambler's fallacy" (GF for short) accusation, when the issue really is probabilities. Probabilities have a deterministic quality. They tell you how things will "end" or look like after a large enough sample of trials. [random Events video]

Advantage Play

I will give you a great advantage. Let's say that the pocket of a specific number on an American wheel is 50% wider than the rest numbers. Imagine that - it is an advantage players dream, right? What it actually means is that this specific number has 3,9% probabilities to show versus 2,6% of the rest of the numbers and versus 2,7% of a number in a fair European wheel.

Now you consider this 1,2% advantage over a fair European wheel number so crucial that you claim you can make a living out of it, yet when I point out the 48,6% probability of Even chances and tell you that Black cannot sleep for too long too often you tell me that anything is possible and my premise is based on Gambler's Fallacy. I'm not "allowed" to expect the 48,6% chances of Black to materialize or have any effect within the next 50 or 100 spins, but your 1,2% advantage will surely take effect and provide you with steady income day in and day out.

Contradiction
The truth is that you can't have it both ways. You can't on one hand claim that the casino will win based on the 2,7% house edge or that you will win based on a 1,2% advantage and at the same time say that one can not depend on Red or Blacks 48,6% probabilities for it to show up.

For you it is always a question if and when and how many times High or Low numbers will appear, yet it is always written in stone and sure as US treasuries that bias numbers will hit more often.

« Last Edit: Today at 06:56:06 PM by kav »


 

kav

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #1 on: Today at 06:55:56 PM »
Disclaimer: The above is written with respect to all advantage players. I'm just being argumentative in order to ignite discussion and RESPECTFUL debate.
 

Bebediktus

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #2 on: Today at 07:43:57 PM »
Quote
Why AP doesn't work
This sentence is not right from the begining - AP simply cant - not work , if it not work it is not AP :)
Quote
Let's say that the pocket of a specific number on an American wheel is 50% wider than the rest numbers. Imagine that - it is an advantage players dream, right? What it actually means is that this specific number has 3,9% probabilities to show versus 2,6% of the rest of the numbers and versus 2,7% of a number in a fair European wheel.

Now you consider this 1,2% advantage over a fair European wheel number so crucial
If number is 50% wider it will hit 1.5 times more often and that means, that it have about 46% advantage....you somehow get 3.9% :)....
But even if it is 3.9% then you must compare with minus 2.7% in normal situation  so that is 6.6% better and looks that you not imagine what is 6.6%.... that is huge advantage if know that it is for sure.....
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #3 on: Today at 07:49:35 PM »
Kav, how would one debate with opponent who don't know the subject? No one would bet one number only..  to realise 1% edge... it's really mean that you will never see your profit.
   Picture in real life looks a bit different, there much more then one number on offer and edges are much more substantial. More numbers mean less variance , more edge mean profit today...

   
 

scepticus

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #4 on: Today at 08:22:24 PM »

Well ! You got  your wish kav. You ignited Discussion  .
The only  definition of the Gamblers' Fallacy by Professional  Mathematicians  that I have read refers to something  being " Due" and ONLY to that event .
AP only means Advantage Play and is based on the ASSUMPTION that a mathematical  advantage has been gained
. I do not think that the AP in this forum can do what they claim AFTER they have decided what to calculate because there is insufficient time to calculate their many factors before NMB. Therein lies their fallacy
Pointing that out to them incurs  abuse but  no  discussion. So far as I am aware there is no Physicist or Mathematician that accepts the possibility that they can do what they claim . That is why bona-fide AP use a computer to make their calculations.
« Last Edit: Today at 08:24:49 PM by scepticus »