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Virtual Losses
« on: June 04, 2017, 06:36:45 AM »
Just a general question. How do you guys play Virtual Losses?

For example, you wait for the first virtual loss. You use that as the trigger and you bet and WIN.

After the win, do you keep betting until a loss, then wait for another virtual loss before betting again?

Or do you STOP after your first win, and wait for another virtual loss?

Thanks.



 

kav

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2017, 08:20:08 AM »
Term this is a very important and broad subject that deserves its own thread, so I created a new topic.
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2017, 09:29:40 AM »
The performance of every system in the short run has the shape of a wave. All crests and troughs are loss arias. These are the basic of strategies. In my replies , I wrote many times that systems without a strategy will end with a loss. This is short and long run theory. Try to understand  the DTOP and my statement ,there are only 37 number bets. SSB start betting Martingale after a 10 step loss. SSB is a system with a iron strong strategy.
 

Junscissorhands

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2017, 10:51:00 AM »
Dobbelsteen, i keep reading DTOP...that's an acronym for ?

Groetjes ook uit nederland dob ;)

 
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palestis

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2017, 11:08:27 AM »
Just a general question. How do you guys play Virtual Losses?
Virtual losses  is the only way to turn a very good system into a HG.
But to use them, you have to determine the maximum back to back losses a system can be subjected to.
And that requires long term tests.
Then you allow some losses to occur without actually betting (virtual losses), and you start the actual bets, from that point, making sure your B/R can withstand  the maximum back to back losses with progression.
Example1:   A dozen/column can sleep 28-30 spins max. (though that's a  very rare event to encounter). Starting to bet that dozen after you see it missing for 8 spins  (that's 8 virtual losses),
might win most of the time, but if that dozen decides to go all the way to its max. of 30 missing spins, then you are looking at 21 back to back losses before a possible win.
Can your B/R withstand 21 losses with progression, before a hit? Probably not.
Now, waiting for 25 virtual losses (dozen missing for 25 spins), might be a waste of time because most likely you will not see it any time soon. But 20 -22 misses, is possible if you are patient.
Then you only risk 8-10 lost spins before a hit. A much safer situation.
Example2:
 In the single dozen system you found that 4 back to back losses are possible, though rare.
Did you see 6,7,8,9 back to back losses? Probably you will never see it.
So if the maximum you can suffer is 4-5 back to back losses, waiting for 2 to lose virtually, (@ 3 bets per trigger),  it gives you the certainty that the next 2-3 betting rounds with progression will be a hit.
Can you afford 9 single dozen bet progressions? Most likely yes.
In a nutshell, the virtual mode in a system, is to allow the system to lose enough times, to the point from which, actual bets can be well within your B/R's limits of affordability.
But knowledge of the max. back to back losses record has to be known.
To lose you have to break the record each and every time.
And you also have to ignore the many missed winning opportunities.
One bad streak can wipe them all out. And it does. Otherwise many players would be winning all the time.
PATIENCE, and knowledge of the maximum back to back losses is the answer to the HG.

« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 11:12:02 AM by palestis »
 
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palestis

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2017, 12:05:28 PM »
Cont:
Many opponents of virtual losses, claim that no matter what happened before, every time you start betting, it's a new cycle subject to the same probabilities,  unrelated to what happened before.
Well, if I test a system for 1 million spins and found that the maximum back to back losses are for example 8, y would I get actual betting results that are different than those 8 (in total), if I start betting after 3 or 4 or 5 losses that already happened (virtual)?
When I did the tests, and before concluding that the max. is 8 back to back losses, the question of how many losses are possible GIVEN THAT 4 ALREADY HAPPEN has been answered.
And also all the questions that relate to given  this has already happened, have all been answered. And in all cases the max. has been found to be 8 back to back losses IN TOTAL.
So in real life and real play if I allow for 4 virtual losses,  before I start betting, y should I expect that anything other than the max. of 8 back to back losses could happen.  That's what the virtual loss opponents claim.
Then y didn't I see it in the million spins test? The buck stopped at 8 back to back to back losses.
The given this and that already happened has been answered.
And answered many times repeatedly.
Y then something different can happen if I start the actual betting?
Am I entering a new million spin cycle where the impossible in the previous million spins, it now becomes possible and frequent?

« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 12:10:24 PM by palestis »
 
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kav

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2017, 01:43:49 PM »
Palestis has given some great points to think about.
This subject is very relevant to my sleeping dozen sector system
For me past spins and virtual losses are the same. It does not matter if my dozen (12 number) sector has slept while I was away or while I was "virtual betting".

Basically in this system I look for a wheel where "my sector" was cold and then I start the attack.
Keep in mind that you don't need to recoup your losses in one win. This is very important, because otherwise your progression will go skyhigh. So think about recouping your losses when your selection, in this case 12 numbers turn warm. I use a very slow, divisor type or breadwinner type of progression.

12 numbers can sleep like for 30 spins max, but this is extremely rare. What is more important is that you normally expect on average 9 wins per 30 spins. And if a 30 spin set is extremely unfavorable then most likely due to the regression to the mean effect, a favorable set of spins with a good it rate is due. So if we look for a case where the 12 numbers have slept for 9 spins and have a low hit rate in the last 30 spins, then we have a good chance to catch them starting to get hot if we start an attack.

I am against waiting for very extreme events like the 12 numbers sleeping for 15 spins etc. because the additional benefit is small and the waiting time gets exponentially longer. Moreover, the trigger or past spins or virtual losses are only 50% of the solution, the other 50% is the progression.

No matter how long you wait, you can't win by flat betting or Martingaling.
 
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kav

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2017, 03:40:30 PM »
The problem I have with Palestis approach of defining the limit of back to back losses, is that it implies a Martingale. If I know the maximum consecutive losses, then I can Marty and recoup my losses with a win. But this is a dangerous tactic. One loss more than expected will throw your plan and current profits to the toilet if you matringale.

Even if you wait for 5 Blacks and start betting Red you can't be sure of a win in the next 6 spins.
Even if you bet 35 numbers, it is not impossible to have 3 or even 4 consecutive losses.
If we are talking about dozens, things get even more uncertain.

That's why I prefer a "long view" of the statistics. Looking for cold number or sections starting to get warm, instead of looking for that ONE hit that HAS to come.

Does this virtual losses concept offer any advantage? Barely. But every bit of advantage is desperately needed by the roulette player.

The advantage is not so much the hit rate. Waiting for losses or your selection getting cold you miss many wins when your numbers are hot and hit like crazy. So I don't thing there is any advantage in the hit rate. The only advantage is in the confidence of the knowledge that your numbers are now getting seriously cold and sooner or later they will get warmer.

If I start the attack without looking at previous results, then I may be lucky and my numbers can hit like crazy or I may be unlucky and my numbers disappear. If my numbers were hot previously, their disappearance is natural according to the regression to the mean. So I don't know when they will get hot again. But if you had checked the previous numbers and your numbers were already cold, you now have the confidence that you are in the middle of a great imbalance that will correct itself in the near future.

IMO the advantage of virtual losses is your knowledge/confidence in case things go bad, that things will correct soon. That's it.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 03:49:37 PM by kav »
 
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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2017, 04:30:47 PM »
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, guys. Kav brings up some good points, about missing many wins. It makes sense that it does not improve the hit rate, but it DOES improve the chances of not going bust. That's why I would like to know how some of you actually PLAY virtual losses in your games.

Here are some specific questions I have for those who use Virtual Bets:

1) When you first start a game, do you wait for virtual losses BEFORE pacing bets? Or do you bet first, then use virtual bets after a loss, before betting again?

2) When you first start a game, and the virtual bets are winning one after the other, do you STILL wait for a virtual loss before betting? Or, do you start betting because of the streak of wins happening right now? (If bet, how many virtual wins in a row do you wait before you start betting?)

3) When you start betting, and finally win a bet after waiting for a virtual loss, do you STOP betting after your first win, and wait for another virtual loss? Or do you keep betting after your win, until you lose again. THEN wait for another virtual loss before betting again?

Thank you
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 04:40:37 PM by TERMINATOR »
 
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scepticus

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2017, 04:59:48 PM »

In my opinion ;

A Virtual Bet
is  one  or more of a  chosen series of bets  that a Bettor has decided  not to bet .

Why make a “ Virtual Bet “ ?
The reason he does so us to limit the bankroll needed for that particular series of bets  or because it is a silly thing to do .

An example would be if  a Bettor decided that a Red would occur in ten spins . If he applied a Martingale to all of the 10
Bets which may be needed he would need a bankroll of 512 chips. Realising that that is a foolish thing to do he “ Takes A Chance “ that one of the next 4 spins will NOT be Red .
If he is correct in that assumption then he needs  a bankroll of 32 chips , a considerable reduction.
If he is wrong in his assumption then he has not lost anything .
All  gambling is based on “ Taking a Chance “.
When using  a Nine Block I do not bet the first 2  bets because that would be a foolish thing to do because I cannot win but will lose if zero occurs.
 
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kav

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2017, 08:39:39 PM »
I attach an example where in 90 spins the tier section (12 numbers 27-16) is clearly underperforming.
This is a great opportunity for an attack on this sector.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #11 on: June 04, 2017, 08:52:40 PM »
A virtual loss strategy for a one number bet is worthless. The ECs and 12 number bets ar more suitable for the  virtual loss strategy. Long run test are useless. A study of a large number short run test can give you much more information. Virtual loss strategies with the hide and run strategy can be profitable.
 

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #12 on: June 04, 2017, 10:14:03 PM »
What's a "Hide and Run" Strategy, Dobbs? Similar to hit and run?
 

palestis

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #13 on: June 04, 2017, 10:21:12 PM »
@ Terminator.
1)  Yes. You wait for virtual losses to happen before you bet. You determine how many VL's are appropriate for the specific system. if you make rounds and you happen to see a roulette with more VL's than the system requires then even better. More steps closer to the max. back to back losses.
2). If the virtual bets are winning, then they are useless. You remain idle, until you get the VL's that you have specified. Once it happens, then you start betting with real money. Winning streaks look pretty to look at them, but as usual they don't happen when you place bets.
3). If you win during the real bets, then you stop. Mission accomplished.
    You don't bet anything until that VL or VL's you have specified happen again.
Since you are familiar with the single dozen, one virtual loss is when a trigger losses all 3 bets. ( but you didn't place any chips). Two virtual losses is when the next trigger losses the 3 bets as well.
If you think that you will encounter 4 back to back losses with this system,
losing 2 triggers virtually, leaves you with 3 triggers that you can bet after,  for a certain win ( and that's the worst case scenario). .
It might take a long time to find 2 VL's triggers, but at least you know you will have a hit.
Betting without VL's you will win many triggers of course.
But when you come across the 4 back to back losses with progression, everything or most of what you won up to that point will go down the drain. Not a pleasant situation after all this effort.

« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 10:55:58 PM by palestis »
 
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palestis

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Re: Virtual Losses
« Reply #14 on: June 04, 2017, 10:53:08 PM »
I attach an example where in 90 spins the tier section (12 numbers 27-16) is clearly underperforming.
This is a great opportunity for an attack on this sector.
Kav.
I have assembled thousands of those cards with live spins, monitoring sectors of the wheel. Like these in 2006. The highest record was a 10 number sector from 0-34 clockwise. 38 spins no show.
And the 12 numbers TIER section of the wheel missing 28 spins.
My experience with underperforming sectors is this. An underperforming sector might not necessarily make up for it when you start betting.
Eventually it will show an improvement, but sometimes not good enough to be worth while.
There is no marker that you can rely on to start betting the underperforming sector.
Because when you start betting, this underperformance may continue just long enough to damage the B/R.
But when you start seeing the underperforming sector, making  a frequent presence, that's when you have to start betting. It doesn't have to show up consecutively. As long as it stays within its statistical share, you should be ok.  A progression can handle that.
But don't expect that sector to make up completely during your betting.
You should be pleased with a basic but certain win.
There will be other sectors, other areas of the layout, other group of numbers, waiting to make up for their underperformance.