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Author Topic: Long term fallacies  (Read 4302 times)

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MrPerfect.

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #60 on: June 04, 2017, 10:04:16 PM »
@ Blue Angel.
     Sometimes we are forced to set limits to the win. For example here, in UK,  people are required to provide ID,  if they cash out more the 1500gbp. It's a legal requirement for taxes reasons.
    Other example could be some autoroulettes. They trigger " error mode" if player win more then 20 initial deposits. This "error mode" allow operator to change manually mode of device operation ( mix things more..ets).
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #61 on: June 04, 2017, 10:31:35 PM »
BR levels / BR units(total)  /bet units /bet % of BR/         profit(acc.)
Level 1   /   1000              /     30     /     3%      /              0     (0)   
Level 2   /   1333 (1666)   /      40    /     3%      /           333 (333)   
Level 3   /   1777 (2222)   /      53    /     2.98% /           444 (777)   
Level 4   /   2370 (2962)   /      71    /     3%      /           592 (1369)   
Level 5   /   3159 (3950)   /      95    /     3%      /           790 (2159)   
Level 6   /   4213 (5265)   /     126    /     2.99% /          1053 (3212)   
Level 7   /   5617 (7021)   /     169    /     3.01% /          1404 (4616)   
Level 8   /   7489 (9361)   /     225    /     3%      /          1872 (6488)   
Level 9   /   9984 (12481) /     300    /     3%      /          2496 (8984)
-----------------------------------------------

The total BR is 33 times the base bet.

When 66.66% net profit achieved, divided it in 2 parts, half is being reinvested to BR and the rest goes into your pocket.

Each level has 22 wins to 33 losses ratio, which means that by winning 22 times your base bet (net) you shall move one level up.
By losing 33 times more than your wins you are eliminating current BR level.

You'll net your initial BR plus 369 units extra after achieving 66 wins more than your losses.

This is a money management which I've created and want to share with you.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 10:38:52 PM by BlueAngel »
 
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scepticus

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #62 on: June 04, 2017, 11:46:12 PM »

Yes Mr.P    I did misinterpret your 15 -30 example.
But you are vague when stating
1. It's amount of spins required to make educated decision,  wich is statistically relevant

To put the question simply . How many spins are required to make them " statistically relevant "  ?
After you have collected that number of spins you must then Interpret them . Others may interpret them differently from yours.
My point about your credibility being undermined was in relation to your introducing Intuition into your betting and had nothing to do with your 15-30 example.

 

scepticus

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #63 on: June 04, 2017, 11:50:03 PM »

BA
Nice example of Money Management  but  20 times the Bet is ,I think, sufficient .
Thanks again.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #64 on: June 04, 2017, 11:52:02 PM »
Quote
introducing Intuition...

Intuition, clairvoyance...what abstract ideas!

The best way to predict future is to create it...!
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #65 on: June 05, 2017, 03:34:35 AM »
There are some basic  stats tools to determine statistical significance. They are :
 1. Standard deviation
 2. Chi- square
 3. Confidence intervals
          Besides these l use some convenient heuristics  adapted from other science fields like computer engineering,  meteorology,  seismology. ..ets.
       How many spins are required is not fixed number. It can be anything from 300 to 3700 where multivariable profile is collected , or up to 10000 where only numbers are taken.
   I do not advise taking numbers only. It can be very misleading. 
« Last Edit: June 05, 2017, 09:13:59 AM by kav »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #66 on: June 05, 2017, 08:56:19 AM »
I consider low the 10K $ at states, but 1,500 is way too low!
However, it's cheap excuse to use taxation policies and machinery malfunctioning in order to disguise your inability to do better.

BTW, what have to do weather balloons and seismographs with roulette?!
Are they going to indicate the upcoming level of deviation?!
That's baloney and you know it!
« Last Edit: June 05, 2017, 09:13:41 AM by kav »
 

kav

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #67 on: June 05, 2017, 09:15:31 AM »
BA please stop quoting. Refer to his name name if you want to refer to a specific poster.
Thank you.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #68 on: June 05, 2017, 12:34:45 PM »
BA, it just show your knolidge of stats, and math in general.
    This game is not what you think about it. Your " expirience" expired 30 years ego with introduction of low profile wheels. About new wheels no one really will post info, so l gess you have no source to update your expirience. 
   
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #69 on: June 05, 2017, 12:57:54 PM »
BA, it just show your knolidge of stats, and math in general.
    This game is not what you think about it. Your " expirience" expired 30 years ego with introduction of low profile wheels. About new wheels no one really will post info, so l gess you have no source to update your expirience. 
   

And how have you draw this conclusion about me?
 

scepticus

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #70 on: June 05, 2017, 01:30:05 PM »

Mr Perfect
Stats are about Past Spins . Professional Mathematicians claim that past spins are irrelevant in determining future spins.. The variations in roulette require a computer AT THE TIME OF THE SESSION to do the necessary calculations in the time allowed .yet you  claim that you don't need a computer !.

You still need to interpret stats and different people can - and sometimes do -interpret the same stats differently.
Your claim that your  Intuition can overcome your interpretation of the stats only reveals your lack of confidence  in your stats - and their irrelevance .
So come on Mr. P. Make sense . You seem to be indulging in psychobabble .

 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #71 on: June 05, 2017, 07:35:46 PM »
BA, l came to conclusions about your knolidge with the help of your posts. What you wright on forum , your statements, opinions you display , they reflect your knolidge and level of understanding. 
    When you will get hands on experience with this game, your posts will reflect it. But for now it's not happening.  What your posts show is level of understanding of the forum reader, not the player.
    Do you see, things that matter and do in fact happen with roulette wheel/ ball are not so many. Options are limited and players do have very similar problems and do arrive to very similar solutions and methods to implement them.
    If you actually get real expirience some day, come back to this tread and read your own posts....
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #72 on: June 05, 2017, 09:10:22 PM »
mr Perfect,

You seem to know me better than myself, I can only admire such ''knowledge''!

One of the things I've learned by my life experience is that those who really know keep it in the down low, try not to pretend the smart and attract unnecessary attention.

On the other hand, there are a few charlatans who take themselves very seriously, they think that are never wrong and they have the exclusive rights to criticize others regardless the merit of their actions/words.

You can never be right with an egomaniac, even if you are right.

Please allow me to know better what I'm doing, can do, or not.

At least give me this much mr Perfect!
« Last Edit: June 05, 2017, 09:12:54 PM by BlueAngel »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #73 on: June 06, 2017, 03:35:14 AM »
 BA. It's very easy to show you what you are doing. You are just posting , nothing else.
   If you want, lll send you video filmed spins without the end part and you predict them . Obviously film will include some complete spins as well, so you can take all nessesary data. This film will include spins from my wheel that l already posted on this forum ones, lll just mix them up. You can create entire profile for a wheel before predicting... it makes it very easy task. Reasonable rotor speeds, controlled conditions, almost no wheel deceleration, Teflon ball - prediction paradise.  Around 30% edge is achievable . If you can not beat this situation - you can beat nothing.
    How do you think, are you up to the task?
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #74 on: June 06, 2017, 08:51:11 AM »
Mr Perfect,

I couldn't care less about your insignificant challenge, my purpose is to win money, not to prove, neither to brag.
I've never claimed that I'm Visual Ballistics player, in my mind Visual Ballistics and Advantage Play are not equivalent, neither synonymous.

Therefore, yes, I'm an Advantage Player and yes I make my living by betting, but sorry to disappoint you because I'm not VB player and I'm going to pass your videos, which by the way I didn't know that you've ever uploaded.