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Author Topic: Long term fallacies  (Read 2613 times)

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MrPerfect.

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #15 on: May 31, 2017, 04:22:12 PM »
Does it matter in the country where there is no law?
   Situation is simple, non legimate government of clowns, foreign intervention, anarchy... entire areas being depopulated , so Shell can explore gas, killing nature and ground waters in the process.  We are speaking about a country that used to feed entire Europe with grains... probably biggest deposite of black land in the world. Human rights or life there has no value at the moment. What makes you think you are safe to play, even if they have a licence? 
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #16 on: June 01, 2017, 11:24:50 AM »
List of long term fallacies related to roulette that l found so far:
  1. Use of ball distance on the ball track ( time) and ball jump separately. 
      This one is stupid because produce double dispersion.. difference in timings plus difference of jumps.
  2. Looking numbers hit on the long run without conditions involved.
      This one stupid as well , especially on low and ultra low profiles wheels.
  3. Use of relative distance  ( how many pokets) , normally for vb or ds , without accounting for a distortion produced by wheel topography  ( bias).
It's a main reason why many " AP I WANNA BE" loose their banks.
  4. Religion of " random fluctuations". There is no random in this game, what perceived as " random" it's just a lack of proper study.
  5. Use of average distance ( for reasons explained above on previous posts).
       Anyone taking this game seriously have to perform some studies... unfortunately,  resources available are full of bs. It's done on the purpose to protect the game from both sides ( AP and casinos)... need to account for this " smoke screen" and verify any asumptions by yourself.
    It's a game for a few, not many. If you gonna make a part of this " few" , depends only on your determination as individual.
 
 

scepticus

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #17 on: June 01, 2017, 03:47:29 PM »
Depends on what you mean by Random.
As applied to roulette Random only means “ no set pattern or sequence “ so in no amount of study  can you tell which numbers or groups will come up next. We can only make educated guesses and until punters realise that they will continue on the wrong  track to winning.
There are obvious “patterns “ in roulette so the question is which one to choose on the next few spins.
Glad to see that you agree with me that some AP exagerate their competence !
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #18 on: June 01, 2017, 04:09:14 PM »
Variance means variable, different, alternating, varies tendencies, various categorizations...etc
I believe that if the best minds would cooperate for sufficient time they would eventually come up with the optimum strategy in order to beat roulette systematically.
But it's so complicated which makes it beyond the comprehension of the average gambler, only a well structured and sophisticated system could succeed in long term.
 

scepticus

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #19 on: June 01, 2017, 07:05:30 PM »

" Long Term "   Grrr !  There is only the times we bet .
The main point that   I am making BA , is that there cannot be a WINNING STRATEGY that profits all the time.
So looking for the Holy Grail is a waste of time and effort and we should concentrate on a method or methods that have a reasonable chance of profit .
   .You and I think that it better to concentrate on level stake methods for example while others prefer Progressions .I think that those who prefer Progressions are fearful of losing and look for what they consider to be the longest losing progression . 
We gamblers should accept that we will lose sometimes so should seek methods  that limit those losses .As kav has said the Sequence from Hell can destroy any progression.
I have no  problem in accepting AP as a method but AP are not entitled to claim - as they do -that AP is The ONLY WAY  !  Grr  !
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #20 on: June 01, 2017, 07:37:30 PM »
Speak for yourself Scepticus, your subjective opinion cannot reflect everyone's reality.
Perhaps you embrace it because it's the only gambling reality you know for years and I can't blame you about that.

The vast majority can identify themselves with your mentality, actually you are saying nothing new, you are just the voice of the conventional wisdom.
But do you, or anybody else, know what me can do regarding gambling?

What do you really know about me except what I've written on forums?
And about what I wrote, is everything clearly understood, is it what I really believe and do, or just what I want you to believe.

Theoretically every time I buy a lottery ticket I've a chance to win millions, does it mean that eventually I'll become millionaire by buying tickets?
Don't get me wrong but you can only speak for yourself, it's too misleading to consider what you can do it's the same for the rest of about 7.7 billions around the planet!
Since when you know what everybody else can do or what cannot?
Therefore your interpretation of reality is just your reality because the world you see is the world you be.
Don't you think that 1 in every 10,000,000 gamblers has a long term winning method?
And from around the world to be a total of 2,000 to 3,000 such charismatic individuals, do you consider it impossible?
After all the things mankind has done throughout history this is what is hard to swallow for you?!
So please next time don't rush to place everyone in the same fate as yours.

 

scepticus

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #21 on: June 01, 2017, 08:56:35 PM »

I am the face of conventional wisdom BA  ? Don't make me laugh  !
The conventional wisdom says that we cannot win IN THE LONG TERM .I  have constantly rejected that point of view  yet you claim that I represent the conventional wisdom .
Yes we can win over long periods but that only means that variance has not clobbered us. Variance proves that we can never claim to have the Holy Grail . Your view that we can find The Holy Grail is SUBJECTIVE reasoning and not  based on FACT. We can never be certain where uncertainty rules and we should not encourage newbies
to think otherwise .
Truth? You can't handle the truth !
 

Jake007

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #22 on: June 01, 2017, 09:34:49 PM »
Privet Blue Angel! Kak dela? I used to fly into Donetsk and Lugansk often and those airports are gone from the reports Ive read. I used to travel between the cities often as well and down to Yalta from time to time. If you are ever in the states lets get a beer.
 
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BlueAngel

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #23 on: June 01, 2017, 09:39:26 PM »
First of all let me clarify that I'm not trying to convince anyone about what I know as facts.
Everyone is free to believe whatever they want, if believing that earth is flat makes them feel safe then by all means be my guest!

I've absolutely no gain by proving to all of you what I do know as cold-hard facts, this is not something subjective.

Gambling is not for every soul around the planet obviously, but the same we could say for a number of other things, for example knitting or climbing, are those activities for everyone?

Lack of moderation could be proved harmful even from ''innocent'' activities such as watching TV, eating, sitting in the toilet and eating.
Everyone could draw his conclusions according his judgment and act properly.
 
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BlueAngel

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #24 on: June 01, 2017, 09:46:17 PM »
Privet Blue Angel! Kak dela? I used to fly into Donetsk and Lugansk often and those airports are gone from the reports Ive read. I used to travel between the cities often as well and down to Yalta from time to time. If you are ever in the states lets get a beer.

Haraso, menia zovut maladoi chilovek, kak tebia zovut?
Skolka tebia let?
Eto interstna propozitsia, cpacibo.
 

Jake007

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #25 on: June 01, 2017, 09:53:23 PM »
.
 

Jake007

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #26 on: June 01, 2017, 09:54:31 PM »
Menya zovut Dzheyk. Mne okolo 40 let. Seychas v Los-Andzhelese. Zhenataya devushka moyey mechty;) davno. Yeye sem'ya po-prezhnemu nakhoditsya v plokhoy situatsii, no vse proiskhodit v Ukraine. Moy russkiy strashnyy, izvinite!
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #27 on: June 01, 2017, 10:07:19 PM »
Menya zovut Dzheyk. Mne okolo 40 let. Seychas v Los-Andzhelese. Zhenataya devushka moyey mechty;) davno. Yeye sem'ya po-prezhnemu nakhoditsya v plokhoy situatsii, no vse proiskhodit v Ukraine. Moy russkiy strashnyy, izvinite!

Ya ponial.
Vas Ruski ni ploha, ya gavarut tsutsut po Ruski zavik.
Na Ukraina mnoga krasivaya devuska, no na Los Angeles ni snaiu patamusta nikogda tuda.
Mne nravintsa exkursi i naturalnaya krasi.
 

scepticus

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #28 on: June 01, 2017, 11:27:53 PM »

Claiming that we can find The Holy Grail  is not a FACT .It is a product of your subjective reasoning and THAT is a fact .
We should admit that we don't know what future outcomes will be and not claim that what we  MIGHT  be able to  achieve is already proven. We do have FACTS , BA,  but we still need to make assumptions from these facts .They are not themselves The Holy Grail. You need to provide the FACTS  to prove your assertion that we can achieve The Holy Grail .
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Long term fallacies
« Reply #29 on: June 02, 2017, 03:28:51 AM »
 Skeps, just relax. Holy Grail is the same thing as phylosophycal stone. It's not a " substance".
    Phylosophycal stone is Alchemist himself and Holy Grail is a Player himself.
    Both things do have a lot in common,  don't you think? Everyone look for them anywhere else, but not exactly where they are.
 If you wanna win become a player, if you want change nature become alchemist. ... do not change systems or metals, change yourself.