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Author Topic: Roulette numbers as stocks  (Read 424 times)

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Reyth

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Roulette numbers as stocks
« on: April 29, 2017, 11:27:53 PM »
So now I am thinking about the roulette wheel like a stock portfolio with 37 companies.  If we were to analyze, rate and rank each company based on short-term performance, long-term performance, probability and expectation, could we successfully choose the best companies based on just the technicals?

If we applied the same intense focus of investment portfolio managers to every spin, shouldn't we be able to do better than 1/37 in the numbers we choose to bet?
« Last Edit: May 01, 2017, 08:59:19 PM by Reyth »


 

scepticus

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2017, 09:48:22 PM »
I think, reyth, that there is a difference between the Stock Market and Roulette inasmuch as in the Stock Market Bettors bet against each other while roulette Bettors bet against the casino  .
 

petespin

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2017, 02:05:40 AM »
cone how much u re in plus at those 15000 spins? , and u use a kind of progression , ? if u re plus 5,000 units without using any proghtrssion, then u ll never ever lose ur br even in milion of spins .
 

Reyth

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2017, 03:42:00 AM »
I think, reyth, that there is a difference between the Stock Market and Roulette inasmuch as in the Stock Market Bettors bet against each other while roulette Bettors bet against the casino  .

If someone withdraws their money because they plan to spend it, that's not betting against me, who proposes that the price will go up?
 

scepticus

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2017, 12:57:43 PM »

I don't understand what you mean here , Reyth.
Please clarify .
 

Reyth

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2017, 01:57:18 PM »
There are people that sell their stocks, not to make money but to cash out.  They are not speculating that the price will go down, they are simply liquidating their asset and therefore they are not betting against me.
 

thomasleor

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2017, 03:20:20 PM »
Wrong, Reyth. There is always someone paying for your liquidation of shares, options, futures and so on...

Your perceived profit on said liquidation is someone else money paying for his own future profit and liquidation. Hence when they take your bid, they are betting against you.

All this is of course based on interacting factors like available volume, price and demand.
 

Reyth

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2017, 03:46:37 PM »
You obviously understand how the market works, how can you say that someone who needs to pay off their house and is liquidating their position is betting against me?  They are cashing out because they need the money for something; it has nothing to do with the market, they couldn't care less if the price went up or down.
 

thomasleor

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2017, 04:23:51 PM »
You were originally talking about your view on the stock market, not about real estate and its market. The complexity of the former, with its many financial instruments, cannot in any way be likened to the simplicity of the latter and its single product.

Though  I understand the underlying point you are making, you cannot mix apples and oranges.
 

Reyth

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2017, 05:22:25 PM »
Because you are obviously quite intelligent, I can't help feeling that you are intellectually toying with me here.  But I like to think the best I can of people and so I will choose to believe that you are being sincere.

ANY REASON for liquidating a position, besides the speculation that the market price will decrease, will suffice to show that the cash out is not an act of betting against me, who desires to make money on an expected price increase.

I only care to show that there is more to the market dynamics than buyers and sellers betting against each other.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2017, 05:28:40 PM by Reyth »
 

Rinad

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2017, 06:41:22 PM »


 i know of many who communicate using "terms/wording" that makes other think they are highy educated or very intelligent.  IT MEANS NOTHING WHEN IT COMES TO BEING PRACTICAL IN LIFE AND MAKE BETTER DECISIONS.
you can watch the news media journalist and politicians talking in circle every day. a 5 year old has more wisdom then they have.
God bless
Rinad
 
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scepticus

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2017, 08:32:21 PM »

When buying in " The Market " , Reyth. we need to  ask the Question " Why are they selling " ?
When selling in " The Market" we need to ask the Question " Why should they buy what I am selling " ?
Both parties take a view as to what "The Price " should be .but they differ in what the price should be..
In your example The Seller can only get the price that someone is prepared to pay. At the time of the sub-price fiasco someone benefitted at the expense of the " forced seller " who lost money and selling shares at "the wrong time" can also lead to a loss.
And if he is not now" In The Market " then he cannot make a profit or loss and no one can profit at his expense.
Anyway your example  has been changed from " a portfolio"  of companies to an untypical scenario.
Shame on you Reyth .!
 

Reyth

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2017, 08:55:59 PM »
I wonder how relevant this discussion really is.

Its not "typical" for someone to cash out for reasons other than solely reaching their desired level of profit after having bought in at a lower price?

Well if that's the case, I think this discussion is no longer typical.

But anyway, if I was trying to take the contrary side of my comparison of roulette to a stock portfolio, I would say that roulette and stocks definitely do differ and it is because of the law of public supply and demand vs. the laws governing random generation of numbers; tickseeker showed graphically how the numerical flow generates objectively different behaviors.

To which I reply that isn't my point.  My point is about a complete and intense focus based on multiple statistcal factors that are compared to common statistical results so that we will improve the accuracy of our bets -- its the ANALYSIS that is similar, not the medium.

How many of us analyze every number with every spin of the wheel?  There are vast landscapes of statistical data that go unexamined, spin after spin!  Every number has its own statistical story to tell...

I am just waiting for Cone to come back and I suspect he will understand my portfolio example in the way in which I intended it to be understood by him; not only that, but that he has already understood it better than I do.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2017, 09:22:20 PM by Reyth »
 

scepticus

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2017, 02:34:09 AM »
shrug !
 
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Reyth

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Re: Roulette numbers as stocks
« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2017, 08:25:38 AM »
And now I realize that to understand how roulette works, one only needs to understand how a single number works.  The Zen of roulette if you will.  That's the proposition, to study all the numbers at once and pick the best ones.