Author Topic: Talos_Dump  (Read 31447 times)

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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #15 on: December 23, 2016, 01:00:00 AM »
I'm just doing some figuring based on some of the things Talos mentioned. :D

That post will be updated as I figure out and try new things.

I think I may have it figured out. 

If I am correct, I understand why he says that failure is due to the player; the calculations are meticulous (ranges & ratios) to continuously maxmimize the advantage. 

If I am correct, he has created a way to simplify the calculations through the number of bets he makes so it can be easily done mentally by just tracking the number of spins. 

If I am correct, his system is based on the fact that increasing the number of bets creates a higher success/payout rate than simply raising with the bet selection remaining static. 

Also, if I am correct, he utilizes a unique skill of REDUCING his bets and numbers selected when he wins which ALSO requires meticulous calculation (ranges & ratios).  If I am correct, I think this hidden method of "negotiation" recovery is the true genius of his system.

Also, if I am correct, I think he is basing his figure of 260 spins & 1400 bank balance required on the fact that he MUST get some guaranteed hits along the way and that he simply is facing successive streaks of prolonged losses in between the guaranteed wins.  After 100,000 recorded spins he has never faced anything close to this but he admits that it is possible and when it should happen he will only lose 1400 after having gained many hundreds of thousands.

I need to play around some more with it and hopefully I can simply make a softwares that will do all the maths for me.

This betting method kind of reminds me of this jellyfish:



Knowing the "jellyfish method" alone is not enough, we need to always calculate the ranges & ratios in order to survive the very tough times that do come.

Because like he says in the first CANON:

I encourage you to go back in matemathics and forget "hot" and "cold" numbers, or sectors,
and handle just the money you got as a bankroll. That is the key.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2016, 04:10:09 PM by Reyth »
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #16 on: December 24, 2016, 11:44:44 AM »
Hello Reyth,

i'm quite happy you started this topic and you're interrested as well to solve the DrTalos mystery,

i agree with your last post and sure the trick is the progression involved in the recovery part. Like i said i think for the whole part of the games his system is quite simple and like a grind just following a pattern, in fact it's a kind of bet selection right ? But anyway it's another discussion.

The fact his system can sustain 260 spins with 1400 bank is surely including a certain hit ratio he calculates from the worse scenario, we can imagine it's impossible to play 24 numbers in 50 consecutive spins with no hits. I really don't know how he calculates the 260 spins value but it's quite clear it includes "guaranteed hits" as you called them.

So the grind part is easy and the equation to solve is the recovering system including a unique progression when we don't hit in the first spins. I already tried many simulations including decreasing/increasing number of numbers after hits/no hits. I figured out when doing that you come in a situation where the game is never finishing, and if you play more numbers the net win will be less and is necessary involving you have to increase the bet in order to finish the game quite quickly. But if you do that the progression can go too high in some bad situations.
If you hit and play less numbers after every hit you can go to a situation that the game will never finish as well. So i was going to a conclusion that he's never playing less than 12 numbers.
I was able to create a kind of recover progression based on the fact that after the first hit we reduce the number played but if we miss we stayed at this level and not increasing the numbers played again. And you can sustain the 1/60 hit ratio under this scheme. But the one i was working on failed at a moment, so i needed to include a stop loss.
So now i'm trying to find another original way about recovering when the game is becoming longer. It's very difficult when the game is becoming longer to finish on a win with reducing numbers bet on a win and increasing numbers/bets on a loss, but he never said that he's increasing/decreasing after each hit/no hit, he just said the numbers played TEND to increase or decrease.
if you do the math with the total of numbers played spin after spin you will see it's not so easy to keep the 1/60 ratio in special long games. And if at a moment after no hit you increase the number played you are going out of the 1/60 ratio, or you have to increase your bet too much to finish the game under that ratio.
In any case to sustain the 1/60 hit ratio in bad sequences there's no choice you have to go to a progression, if you don't want to go too high in this progression you can reduce the number played to hope for the magical hit, but like i already said if you reduce the number played too much the game will never finish and he would have worse than 80 spin sequences. That's the "unsolvable" part of the equation for me, and the way probably he said we have to think in a different way to solve this part.

Jérôme
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 01:07:19 PM by jerome26b »
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #17 on: December 24, 2016, 01:26:20 PM »
I would like to add one more thing that he never explained in fact, he said he's not selecting numbers but uses a pattern to avoid mistakes. But we don't know if he stayed in this pattern spin after spin or if the selected numbers are random spin after spin. Even more we are quite sure he's playing simple chances cause otherwise the bankroll needed would be too high.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 01:47:26 PM by jerome26b »
 
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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #18 on: December 24, 2016, 02:44:34 PM »
I think the solution is his range of 2-5 wins for recovery, we must remain within a 5 win window so that on the 5th win we will achieve 1:60.

I for one will always stay with the selected numbers and don't mind following his main pattern which is following the last number (I modify that slightly and bet 1 back from the last).

I don't know what you mean by "simple chances" but its really nice speaking with someone that has figured out his secrets too! :D
 

december

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #19 on: December 24, 2016, 03:57:41 PM »

I don't know what you mean by "simple chances"...

Simple chances = EC
 

jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #20 on: December 24, 2016, 05:58:08 PM »
yes it's what i mean. strange anyway cause he said he never play even chances. it seems anyway that his first 2 bets are EC....
 

Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #21 on: December 24, 2016, 07:33:08 PM »
I don't believe that red herring; you obviously refer to CANON 54. 

It is my sincere opinion that he made this post not to be taken literally via amounts (I can prove this from other canons) but as an example of how the number of bets placed can rise using his system and that they DO rise/change during play.  I think this is in complete accordance with CANON 20.

I believe he starts using 4 or slightly more bets because of CANON 31 & 32; at the end of 10 spins he is down 93 units and at the same time he must have achieved 1:60 if he had won.  I think he is showing us this 10 spin benchmark for when recovery begins although I also have a contrary opinion that recovery begins earlier, maybe on spin 7...?

I think CANONS 31 & 32 can be further clarified...
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 07:39:06 PM by Reyth »
 

jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #22 on: December 24, 2016, 09:46:51 PM »
my assumption is this one :

main "progression" until one hit :
------------------------------------------
 
1
E
-1
1
18
2
E
-3
2
36
8
2D
-11
3
60
10
2D
-21
4
84
12
2D
-33
5
108
12
2D
-45
6
132
12
2D
-57
7
156
12
2D
-69
8
180
12
2D
-81
9
204
12
2D
-93
10
228
at spin number ten 228 numbers are played and we are -93, the first column is the bet by spin (without hitting)
So if a hit on the first 3 spins it's direct gain, end of turn. Otherwise we start then the recovery process and it's there where things are becoming more difficult. Last column is total numbers played.
If i made the assumption we hit only at spin number 11, playing last 2 dozens for example always with 12 unit in total waiting for the first hit then after this first hit we just play 12 numbers we are still in the game :

spin 11 2 dozens (6 each) hit -> -87 total number played 252 then we reduce numbers played to 12 only :

 
-87
D
12
-63
264
12
-39
276
12
-15
288
12
9
300
5
so with 4 hits succesfully we have played in total 300 numbers and are in plus reaching the ratio 1/60.
Of course it's very rare to reach spin 11 without any hit playing 24 numbers... i made several more simulations where things are getting worse like first hit at spin 13 then one hit and losing 10 more time on the 12 numbers and at a moment it's very difficult to manage the progression so i think it's working differently somewhere...
i tried to simulate more numbers after miss and less after hitting but it's even worse, interminable to recover.

Jérôme
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 09:50:38 PM by jerome26b »
 
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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #23 on: December 24, 2016, 09:59:26 PM »
Very interesting.  My simulation begins with 3 and goes up by one until it hits 8 and then raises by 1 for 9 and continues to raise by 1 and increase the number of bets by 1 until the 1:60 ratio requires a larger raise (5 wins max requirement to hit 1:60).  Obviously we would stop adding bets once we hit 24 numbers.

On reduction we should always remember the 2-5 recovery window in light of the 1:60 ratio to indicate our reduction.  The 5 max win requirement should keep us safe.

Interesting how you literally interpreted his large gap from CANON 54.  I chose to ignore it based on a single phrase in CANON 35:

My preferred pattern is following the last number,

Notice he says NUMBER singular; this indicates to me that he raises by 1 number at a time.  Again, I am supposing that CANON 54 is a complete red herring, only being used to show us that the number of his bets increases during play.

What are you using to simulate numbers?  I am using FREE mode on a casino; and yes I have been hammered so many times in this FREE mode I can't even tell you.

Btw, we should also remember this sentiment (which didn't make it into the official Canon):

I encourage people to find a way to their own HG, not to mimic mine. I don't think anyone can have exactly the same as the one I use, for many many reasons (and I don't give enough hints to grab it, but maybe someone can, who knows?).

So its not absolutely required that we be 100% exactly to the last unit, IF we get the overall concept and play rules [ranges & ratios] correct. ;)
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 10:14:02 PM by Reyth »
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #24 on: December 24, 2016, 10:23:49 PM »
i've a file of 4000 real live spins i recorder from immersive latvian roulette. it's really helping me now to not play real money with bs systems ;-)
 

Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #25 on: December 24, 2016, 10:39:44 PM »
LOL.  Ya, I get you.  I still have to work out exactly how to perform the calculations; he is correct when he says they are very complex.  Once I have done this I am pretty sure I can discover his "guestimation" method to simplify the whole thing. :D
 

jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #26 on: December 25, 2016, 09:30:15 AM »
Very interesting.  My simulation begins with 3 and goes up by one until it hits 8 and then raises by 1 for 9 and continues to raise by 1 and increase the number of bets by 1 until the 1:60 ratio requires a larger raise (5 wins max requirement to hit 1:60).  Obviously we would stop adding bets once we hit 24 numbers.

how do you achieve the -93 at spin 10 with 228 numbers played so ?

There's no many solutions for this :

- either 12 numbers first spin then 9 spins 24 numbers (he never play more than 24 numbers)
- either 18 numbers first 2 then 8 times 24 like he suggested but he said before he didn't play even chances so maybe this canon was just to give an example of a possible other solution.
- last solution is to play like 5 streets then 7 streets second spins, but i never really focused on this one.

if we take last solution we can imagine a system based on streets addind and removing some streets after hitting/missing.

- there's another way i never tried yet it's to play with corners. We can imagine play 24 numbers with 6 corners. And a combination of corners for the first 2 spins.

- But anyway all of this is bet selection and he said it's not important, so the most important part of the work is just to find a progression than can achieve the 1/60 in long series (in short it's not so difficult i already did it) with solving the equation on playing more numbers when miss and less when win. The problem with that is to find a way to finish the game at a moment and not going to an infinite up and down. It's there when it seems it's not possible mathematically speaking to achieve it, so when he said we have to find an original way to build a progression it's the path maybe...

Jérôme
« Last Edit: December 25, 2016, 09:32:25 AM by jerome26b »
 

Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #27 on: December 25, 2016, 03:33:38 PM »
My progression right now is at 0:63 at 10 numbers but I don't hit 228 numbers until bet number 13.  You are right, I should probably try starting at 4 numbers and see how much it gets closer.

I really believe he raises by 1 number at a time and so I wonder how many numbers I need to start at in order to get to 228 by bet 10 and while raising one number at a time...

I guess in the beginning you are closer than I am at the moment starting with 18 S/U numbers.  Its very interesting in fact becase he mentions this!! 

Check CANON 21:

So...
  Checking outcomes to identify a biased or fallacious wheel, then look at the ball spinning around the wheel to identify a sector where it will most likely end its run, it is called science.
  On the other hand, waiting for a situation to occur, a situation that statistically happens one time every two spins, and studying a progression that allows you to wait 20 spins to hit, it is called luck.


It is interesting that he is indicating here a progression that provides 10x expectation for the number of bets.  I wonder if this is to be a perpetual constant...  It is playing 360 numbers in 20 spins.

So, what he is indicating here is 20 consecutive misses of an EC!  The odds of this are:



Which is:

0.00013732910156

Check out the last entry here:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1252.msg18008#msg18008

It adds up to 360!!!!  NO FREAKING WAY, RIGHT?!

This brings up CANON 58 which again seems to indicate our 5 wins limit...

Again, I think the key is to calculate 1 hit 1:60, 2 hits 2:120, 3 hits 3:180, 4 hits 4:240 & 5 hits 5:300; this will give us a list of choices for possible raises/lowerings to choose from.

Our progression when reducing and raising, can never allow a situation to occur that will be worse than achieving 5:300 from the 1st spin of the raise/lowering to the 5th spin of that sequence.  THAT IS A COMPLEX CALCULATION but it will keep us safe because it will tell us (Talos?) the bare minimum our raise must be to "stay in the game".  Have you done this yet?  I haven't worked out the algorithim to accomplish it yet, still kind of wrapping my brain around it...

 You are familiar with CANON 32?
« Last Edit: December 25, 2016, 05:23:07 PM by Reyth »
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #28 on: December 25, 2016, 06:53:22 PM »
in fact my progression based on recovery with only 12 numbers works with the ratio 1:60 until at least 360 even more. the problem arise when we go to longer game and it's not finishing quickly then at a moment when there's an alternate of loss win loss loss loss at a moment i've to bet *2 the twelve numbers to respect the ratio and finish for example at 10 hits for 600 numbers. the problem is i can be -550 at that moment and it becomes long and crazy to recover. raising again the number played will not really solve the issue cause the game will be even longer. and reducing the numbers played will just count of luck for a magical hit so i don't have any solution now for longer games like >25-30 spins. it occurs once every 1000 spins in my file.

jerome.
 

jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #29 on: December 25, 2016, 06:58:16 PM »
one more thing Reyth,

the system he plays must be payable easily. he said once he was surfing the net while playing so even if he's using airball with repeat button i don't think it's easy to play numbers and add / remove one number between spins. you ca repeat the last bet but not removing a bet so it's quite unplayable i think. i really don't think he's playing numbers, maybe not even chances but maybe block of streets or double streets or corners or dozens. it's more practical to play. and the calculations should be simple as well don't forget he said at the end it's simple math ...

jerome.