Author Topic: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.  (Read 2247 times)

dobbelsteen

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2016, 08:24:53 AM »
I have done much research with the PRNG of Excel. I am convinched that the influence of the kind of RNGs is negligible. Short run trials are not random. A number sequence shall not be random in a M spins.

For a rouletteplayer it is important what you can expect in playsessions.

My analyze programs for the ECs, the dozens and columns,  double and single Streets can give you enormous much information.

It is simple don to convert a random number sequence in random sequences for ECs and others.

For the player it is more interest to research the reliability of the RNG of the internet casinos.

You can do it by betting one chip on Red. After  200 spins the ratio R/B must be 1 with a very small deviation.

Try a large number samples an d look for a anomally.
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2016, 10:52:03 AM »
@Dobblesteen, Reyth...
    I see that no one really understood " sequence method" and what it does on situable wheels. It's normal, l expected this.
   Reason for posting it with examples was to show how very tiny, almost unplayable bias can be detected and explored on the long run. And importance ( correct uplication) of triggers.
  What method does is to reduce negative variance in case of " everything goes wrong" situations.
  Problem with systems and triggers is that, when upplied on random situations , it produces random results. In non random situations it produces non random results.
 It should be obvious from my example  that random should be avoided and can not be trusted.
   What non random means? It's just that distribution of numbers is not uniform in general due to some phisical reasons.
   However this non randomness can take different values . On some values of non randomness " sequence method " will be pointless, flat bet will be more reliable ( player has high edge for example).
   So why prng ? To test properly " sequencing method " in relation to system play, need to develop different triggers for different situations. Simple example, if number sector that we target is small (3-5) numbers , bet after hit wouldn't work that good..   instead would be beneficial to look last 5- 12 spins as a qualifier ( besides other things).
  To be able to generalise about different situations ( wich triggers serve purpose), need make many tests. To make tests, need data samples wich are not uniform in nature. Remember, we are supposed to be testing  situation where player has edge and it's value is defined.
   Easiest way to create " test data samples " would be do them manually ( specify how many times each number hits) and then just shuffle numbers. However it's easier to say then to do. Need to shuffle numbers the way wich does represent reality. If it shuffles without accounting for obvious ( no repetition of same number 5 time's on the row..  ets) , test may become not very reliable.
   Idea..  to make things random, we could use normal rng to select numbers position in the " list" or " row". And before selecting each number position  ,use randomise function of excel...  to mix sample.
   
   
« Last Edit: October 13, 2016, 10:57:51 AM by MrPerfect. »
 
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thomasleor

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2016, 11:05:47 AM »
MrP

It is not that "noone understood" your request. It is your  english, that unfortunately lack the proper vocabulary, grammar and additionally your non-specified data-set, as for anyone of us being able to offer a specific algorithm (which I believe is what you seek) that can implement said task.

I take it you have no mathematical background, or you could have presented your problem as a set of equations, or even a flowing-schematic needed to be solved or integrated into a Main-algorithm supported by a set of sub-algos.

I still believe you have not comprehended how impossible your request is when applied on an industry standard TRNG that produces perfect "random sets" of numbers,  no pre-set system or predictive algorithm can ever beat. Not when you include the unavoidable reality of the strong and weak law of large numbers.

Anyway, I am sure your curiousity (to inevitably realize this fact) is most surely an entertaining adventure and I wish you the best of fun.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2016, 11:07:41 AM by thomasleor »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2016, 11:25:57 AM »
thomasleor,
 " non- specified" data set is located on " exclusive system board". When your presence will be a bit more substantiAl at this forum, probably, if you are lucky, your request to join it will be considered. Then you can specify it for yourself and see presentation  of method that l did there.
  On my previous post l gave an idea how such " imposibility" of using rng to create data samples of interest could be realised.
 In fact this is what lm going to do.
   Thank on you for your valuable opinions about all the rest.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 02:07:34 PM by kav »
 

thomasleor

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2016, 11:45:35 AM »
Sorry, MrP. Kavs "Exlusive system board" is nothing for me as I am already member of one unique such, on slack.com where the best platforms on this planet are presented together with countless tests and play for real money by its members and reported back to the group of talented developers, as feedback for even better future platforms, with unique set of predictive algorithms. All of course developed for live dealer roulettes.

I used to post on this board quite a lot 7 months ago, but since I joined that "club" I am just passing through here out of curiousity to see if some new & interesting ideas have been presented.

For your information, I know for a fact, and have seen with my own eyes, a very sophisticated  systemplatform  with a set of 800 predictive algorithms crunching TRNG data in real time, that is able to beat the casino TRNGs on short runs (80-100 spins). But still never on the long run.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2016, 12:04:03 PM »
l do not want to be mean...  so l try hard.
 It's all not about rng or playing rng roulette games. There are no communities exploring rng, despite whatever you may think. If some one find a flow in it, he will never tell you or others.
   Simple fact of my presence in " exclusive board" may make you think, lm AP after all.
 ;) .
 However it's all does not matter, what really has a value is a thema of this topic.
 Let's keep our posts consistent with it?
« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 02:07:14 PM by kav »
 

thomasleor

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2016, 12:59:19 PM »
Actually, you posed a set of questions. I provided a set of answers. Obviously they were not satisfactory. In a spatio-temporal continuum of constant uncertainty such s*** happens sometimes. Nothing much to it, if you ask me.
 

scepticus

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2016, 01:33:58 PM »
Sorry, MrP. Kavs "Exlusive system board" is nothing for me as I am already member of one unique such, on slack.com where the best platforms on this planet are presented together with countless tests and play for real money by its members and reported back to the group of talented developers, as feedback for even better future platforms, with unique set of predictive algorithms. All of course developed for live dealer roulettes.

I used to post on this board quite a lot 7 months ago, but since I joined that "club" I am just passing through here out of curiousity to see if some new & interesting ideas have been presented.

For your information, I know for a fact, and have seen with my own eyes, a very sophisticated  systemplatform  with a set of 800 predictive algorithms crunching TRNG data in real time, that is able to beat the casino TRNGs on short runs (80-100 spins). But still never on the long run.

An interesting discussion .
How many Short Run trials  are needed to verify an HG method ,Tom ?
And has a Long Run trial being undertaken ?How long is The Long Run ? 
 

Real

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2016, 04:40:28 PM »
Quote
Sorry, MrP. Kavs "Exlusive system board" is nothing for me as I am already member of one unique such, on slack.com where the best platforms on this planet are presented together with countless tests and play for real money by its members and reported back to the group of talented developers, as feedback for even better future platforms, with unique set of predictive algorithms. All of course developed for live dealer roulettes.

Oh my, he's turning down a silly squad invitation!

A guy that's already a member of one secret squirrel club is turning down the invitation to join another secret squirrel club!  Lol!!!!

Just coughed up a kidney laughing!

The level of absurdity has reached a new high. ::)
« Last Edit: October 13, 2016, 05:12:13 PM by Real »
 

Reyth

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2016, 06:08:52 PM »
MrPerfect,

Ok well I haven't read this post entirely nor beyond it, I have to work.  I hope everyone is playing nice.  I can take a sample of numbers and randomly shuffle them all day long, checking the data configuration according to specified output criteria.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 02:06:45 PM by kav »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #25 on: October 16, 2016, 10:11:11 AM »


Ok well I haven't read this post entirely nor beyond it, I have to work.  I hope everyone is playing nice.  I can take a sample of numbers and randomly shuffle them all day long, checking the data configuration according to specified output criteria.
 Could l posibly rely on you then to do it?
 I'm unable to test it all day long , other tests and studies kill my disponible time.
 If you are interested to participate in this study, let me know. I can prepare samples to shuffle. 
 CORRECTION : no need to bother. System rely on steaks of repetitions highly. It happens only on real data sets, with shaffle this condition is compromised.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 02:06:13 PM by kav »
 

Reyth

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #26 on: October 16, 2016, 04:07:24 PM »
Very interesting!  Yes I saw your other post on that.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #27 on: October 16, 2016, 04:28:36 PM »
Very interesting!  Yes I saw your other post on that.
What happens is some " defect " become " active" ..  when it happens we get repetitive hits more then expected.
 I was thinking that despite conditions we may have same repetitive hits even if we shuffle zample due to math of the game. It could permit to know exact value of advantage may have taken ( at least stabilise boundaries)... didn't work out the way as expected. One more thing to consider during the game definitely, but difficult to really test due to luck of huge amount of properly taken data setts...  who knows, probably in the future l come back to this idea.
 
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Ainz

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #28 on: October 18, 2016, 12:43:44 PM »
  Hi. I'm interested in rng.
 Requirements:
 1. Generation of number stream with given haracteristics.
  " number stream" - list of numbers as they come up. You can often see these on roulette boards. 
 " haracteristics " just mean that some numbers will have more apiarences then others.
  2. Posibility to manually specify how many times each number is populated in the sample.
 " sample" - numbers stream generated.
  If you can manage that, please say so. I do not mind to pay for your time.

Reyth, if same numbers would be needed , l could just copy and paste them in excel.
 Problem is other. Need to find way how to shuffle differently same numbers over and over ...
 It's a test for how many times sector of numbers will repeat ( more then expected) , if we shuffle differently each time ( including very " rare" ways to shuffle. ..
   Why its needed?  Purpose of tests is to determine worst situation posible for any known edge value that player may have in game.

Hi MrPerfect.

From your firts post I think that you are asking for Fitness proportionate selection, also known as roulette wheel selection.

In the other post, I understand that after having a list of numbers, you want to permutate them.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: montecarlo simulator to generate numbers stream.
« Reply #29 on: October 18, 2016, 01:40:23 PM »
 Hi, Ainz.
 Idea felt the test .
 Initial idea was to explore mathematical way repetitions of hits on situable wheels ( while ignoring physics )
  . Unfortunately, lm not capable to reproduce reliable test samples for such a study. Simply shuffling or using " randomised " samples do not reflect reality.
  Without additional information about spins ( velocities, dominance of ball behavior. . Ets) it's imposible to set up proper " triggers" .... 
 To test the method itself , there is a need for big amount of properly taken data samples ..  or ability to code that exeeds my current capabilities. 
   On real data sets from situable wheels it produces some results... while tendency is clear, how to explore it properly in each particular case, it puzzles me.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2016, 01:43:38 PM by MrPerfect. »
 
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