### Author Topic: bias and methods tolk. ...  (Read 3081 times)

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#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2016, 02:41:19 AM »
I not think he play bias at all.
At least if he do that, then that is not esential only for some help.
If to play bias then he can not talk about wheel speeds adjustings....
Yes, absolutely true. I look for bias ( numbers) as inconvenience  ( one more thing to acount for) till the moment l understand how to use it in my favor during my vb practice ( if posible).
Presence of sector bias can sometimes provoke very serious damage for vb player. It may unnecessary extend dispersion of relative distances ( from prediction to outcome).

You say bias is inconvenient for vb player . How can you not predict when bias is present ?
Method players have forecast ability but , unlike AP , we don't claim infallibility .
It's not about predicting or not, rather betting or not.
AP needs correlation between something observed and outcome. For example, in some rotor speeds ball has no controlable jump, so better not bet on such spins. Or dealer throw the ball differently then favorable, instead of betting need to observe to understand differences ( if any) and adjust.
What bias is..  it's a long story, more interesting what it does. Numbers or sectors start to collect ( steal) hits from other numbers or sectors.
For example, your prediction is 0 - result 6, prediction is 6- result 6 , prediction is 9- result 6.
If looking from prediction to outcome, you have 18 pokets zone of posible distances. But in reality number 6 steals hits from halfwheel.  Example is fairly exaggerated,  but does represent posible situation. It wouldn't be that clear in reality, need to look more spins ball behaviour and resulting jamp.
Forecast needs reliability.  It's result of a studing and is based on scientific methods. To forecast need to use variables.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2016, 02:52:44 AM by MrPerfect. »

#### scepticus

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##### Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2016, 11:07:16 AM »
Mr. Perfect
Your bet IS a prediction. If not . what is it?
My complaint about you guys is that you claim that your method is superior to ours - without any proof. Supposition is not proof.
As for your method being scientific it is not - it is pseudo scientific. Tell me one Physicist who agrees that you can do what you claim without using a computer ? You ARE subject to variability .Variability
cannot be avoided . We cannot USE variables because they are UNKNOWNS.
No bettor can avoid the reality that all betting is based on ASSUMPTIONS - ALL betting ! You delude yourself if you think you can avoid variance or don't use assumptions. It is AP that need to come into the real world - not we Method Players .

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2016, 12:14:17 PM »
Scepticus, we do not avoid variance, we include it in our play model.
Play with or without computer is compulsory. You can use one stop watch and one metronome to achieve same results in prediction as l do. They can be mecanical devices. If you wish, you can use pen and paper to your data analysis. .. it's time consuming but posible. [size=78%]As you probably know by now, my roulette computer don't predict, it informes and make simple arithmetic calculations. So it can easyly be replaced by additional team player.

Do not  confuse prediction and forcast.  Prediction is on the current spin, forecast is on some spins further . Forecast is rather about conditions in the game then actually numbers themselves.  It's done with the help of physics and statistics combined. It's much more accurate then weather forcast , for example....

Superiority of the method is not an issue here. You can think whatever you wish. System player play with fixed odds, AP disrupt odds ( if he is good, in his favor).

You probably will be curios to know, some AP treat variables as unknowns as well. I have a friend in Argentina,  he play bias old style. ..  lots of numbers gathered, ignoring variables..  ets. It just makes his work more difficult, but don't change the fact his being AP.

I have a proposition for system players in general, not only you. Let's combine our efforts.  Use of any betting system becomes more easy when you have odds disrupted on your favor. As an example you could see charts l posted on other tread ( where to bet)... situation there can be compared to black/ red thing. Imagine what would happen if you could limit half of wheel from hitting 60- 90 % of the time... life becomes more easy, doesn't it?  Still there is a question how to limit this half of wheel as you go and not post factum. ... and how to explore it best way possibe.  Why system players not focus on that instead? It would be common benefit. Just to make you think a bit..... l have a method of betting wich is more powerful then Kelly creteria on a short run ( up to 2k spins), so things like that do have their place , can be devised and explored, why not focus on it?[/size]
« Last Edit: September 04, 2016, 10:25:58 AM by kav »

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#### Trilobite

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##### Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2016, 02:08:30 PM »
Quote
So. how many "trials" are needed to determine if a wheel is biased ?

None

Oooowh, no that's saying something.

#### scepticus

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##### Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2016, 02:43:39 PM »
Scepticus, we do not avoid variance, we include it in our play model.
Play with or without computer is compulsory. You can use one stop watch and one metronome to achieve same results in prediction as l do. They can be mecanical devices. If you wish, you can use pen and paper to your data analysis. .. it's time consuming but posible. [size=78%]As you probably know by now, my roulette computer don't predict, it informes and make simple arithmetic calculations. So it can easyly be replaced by additional team player. [/size]
[size=78%]       Do not  confuse prediction and forcast.  Prediction is on the current spin, forecast is on some spins further . Forecast is rather about conditions in the game then actually numbers themselves.  It's done with the help of physics and statistics combined. It's much more accurate then weather forcast , for example.... [/size]
[size=78%]       Superiority of the method is not an issue here. You can think whatever you wish. System player play with fixed odds, AP disrupt odds ( if he is good, in his favor).  [/size]
[size=78%]        You probably will be curios to know, some AP treat variables as unknowns as well. I have a friend in Argentina,  he play bias old style. ..  lots of numbers gathered, ignoring variables..  ets. It just makes his work more difficult, but don't change the fact his being AP. [/size]
[size=78%]        I have a proposition for system players in general, not only you. Let's combine our efforts.  Use of any betting system becomes more easy when you have odds disrupted on your favor. As an example you could see charts l posted on other tread ( where to bet)... situation there can be compared to black/ red thing. Imagine what would happen if you could limit half of wheel from hitting 60- 90 % of the time... life becomes more easy, doesn't it?  Still there is a qwestion how to limit this half of wheel as you go and not post factum. ... and how to explore it best way posibe.  Why system players not focus on that instead? It would be common benefit. Just to make you think a bit..... l have a method of betting wich is more powerful then Kelly creteria on a short run ( up to 2k spins), so things like that do have their place , can be devised and explored, why not focus on it? [/size]

A Prediction is a Forecast so it is you who are a bit confuse here.
Again you talk about  what you COULD  do and IF ( again ) so you are talking about theory .Nowhere do you guys tell us how much you  actually win 0r percentage of your bankroll you win.
You are dealing in pseudo science so stop pretending that you use a scientific method. You have no backing from the scientific community for your method because, whether or not you accept  it you do need a computer for your idea.
We method players use a calculation or calculations for our bets. As for adopting your idea why do you think we don't ? Because we are stupid ? No. It is because we win so isn't it about time you AP came down to Earth and face reality ?Basically ALL Bettors are TAKING A CHANCE when betting so your claim that your idea of AP is THE ONLY WAY is nonsense. Reality beats theory !
As for using a stopwatch and metronome while remaining " invisible" !!!!
« Last Edit: September 03, 2016, 02:50:50 PM by scepticus »

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#### scepticus

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##### Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #20 on: September 03, 2016, 02:47:05 PM »
Quote
So. how many "trials" are needed to determine if a wheel is biased ?

None

Oooowh, no that's saying something.
And Real doesn't realise how stupid he sounds when making his ONELINER comments. He previously said that he sat at the table counting the spins and had someone else relieve him to ensure continuation . Continuation of " NONE " !  LOL

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2016, 03:08:58 PM »
Scepticus, we do not avoid variance, we include it in our play model.
Play with or without computer is compulsory. You can use one stop watch and one metronome to achieve same results in prediction as l do. They can be mecanical devices. If you wish, you can use pen and paper to your data analysis. .. it's time consuming but posible. [size=78%]As you probably know by now, my roulette computer don't predict, it informes and make simple arithmetic calculations. So it can easyly be replaced by additional team player. [/size]
[size=78%]       Do not  confuse prediction and forcast.  Prediction is on the current spin, forecast is on some spins further . Forecast is rather about conditions in the game then actually numbers themselves.  It's done with the help of physics and statistics combined. It's much more accurate then weather forcast , for example.... [/size]
[size=78%]       Superiority of the method is not an issue here. You can think whatever you wish. System player play with fixed odds, AP disrupt odds ( if he is good, in his favor).  [/size]
[size=78%]        You probably will be curios to know, some AP treat variables as unknowns as well. I have a friend in Argentina,  he play bias old style. ..  lots of numbers gathered, ignoring variables..  ets. It just makes his work more difficult, but don't change the fact his being AP. [/size]
[size=78%]        I have a proposition for system players in general, not only you. Let's combine our efforts.  Use of any betting system becomes more easy when you have odds disrupted on your favor. As an example you could see charts l posted on other tread ( where to bet)... situation there can be compared to black/ red thing. Imagine what would happen if you could limit half of wheel from hitting 60- 90 % of the time... life becomes more easy, doesn't it?  Still there is a qwestion how to limit this half of wheel as you go and not post factum. ... and how to explore it best way posibe.  Why system players not focus on that instead? It would be common benefit. Just to make you think a bit..... l have a method of betting wich is more powerful then Kelly creteria on a short run ( up to 2k spins), so things like that do have their place , can be devised and explored, why not focus on it? [/size]

A Prediction is a Forecast so it is you who are a bit confuse here.
Again you talk about  what you COULD  do and IF ( again ) so you are talking about theory .Nowhere do you guys tell us how much you  actually win 0r percentage of your bankroll you win.
You are dealing in pseudo science so stop pretending that you use a scientific method. You have no backing from the scientific community for your method because, whether or not you accept  it you do need a computer for your idea.
We method players use a calculation or calculations for our bets. As for adopting your idea why do you think we don't ? Because we are stupid ? No. It is because we win so isn't it about time you AP came down to Earth and face reality ?Basically ALL Bettors are TAKING A CHANCE when betting so your claim that your idea of AP is THE ONLY WAY is nonsense. Reality beats theory !
As for using a stopwatch and metronome while remaining " invisible" !!!!
Scepticus,  l already told you, lm not even there for this war between AP and system players. Simply busy with other things. l just answering your qwestions best l can, especially if they follow general idea of the topic and do in fact have a merit. For someone doing good qwestions you simply can not be stupid. However accept or regect info in my answers is entirely up to you.
About proves... no one stops you to go to casino , take some data and see if it works yourself. If you need later help with analysis of your data, let me know.

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#### scepticus

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##### Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #22 on: September 03, 2016, 04:02:13 PM »
O.K.Mr Perfect
You play your way and I'll play mine .Just don't tell me that your way is better than mine.

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #23 on: September 03, 2016, 04:55:37 PM »
O.K.Mr Perfect
You play your way and I'll play mine .Just don't tell me that your way is better than mine.
It's entirely your decision how to play for your money. I have no intention to be better then anyone, just being better then expectation for me is enough.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2016, 08:20:18 PM by MrPerfect. »

#### Real

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##### Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #24 on: September 04, 2016, 02:14:33 AM »
Quote
Just don't tell me that your way is better than mine.-Scepticus

His way is better than yours.

#### scepticus

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##### Re: bias and methods tolk. ...
« Reply #25 on: September 04, 2016, 11:01:46 AM »
Quote
Just don't tell me that your way is better than mine.-Scepticus

His way is better than yours.