BetOnline

Recent Posts

Pages: 1 ... 8 9 [10]
91
Questions and Answers / Re: Question for AP Players
« Last post by MrPerfect. on October 16, 2017, 06:58:10 PM »
How many spins are at the sample? Your spins over expectation coefficient is better to represent dinamics,  not the statics. BTW,  very usefull thing... 
      It's difficult to say anything from numbers only. Would be nice to have order of numbers how they came, besides other things.

     
92
Questions and Answers / Re: Question for AP Players
« Last post by Reyth on October 16, 2017, 05:00:05 PM »
Wow ya and make those calculations, that seems like the toughest part, calculating the edge and deciding the total numbers to bet...

So here is some output for the top numbers:

.#.................Hits (> expectation)
 7.................163
 10...............135
 19...............164
 20...............140
 22...............121
 25...............137

In this case its lower than usual, only 6 numbers and also the performance is lower, usually we see at least one number with over 200 hirs more than expectation. 

So obviously we are betting at least 2 numbers (19 & 7) but the question is, where do we cut it off?  Do we just bet them all??

Interesting to note RNG BiasTM in DS 19-24 here. :D
93
Questions and Answers / Re: Question for AP Players
« Last post by MrPerfect. on October 16, 2017, 04:33:08 PM »
Unfortunately there are no strict rules for how many numbers to bet to achieve a better profit.
    It's always a trade off between security of bankroll and profitability.
    Betting too many numbers in limited time is not very easy as well. Less numbers you bet ( best ones) , better is your edge, but more fluctuations to be expected also....
    Every case should be considered separately,  depending on ability of player to bet multiple numbers in time, bankroll,  edge... ets.
94
Questions and Answers / Re: Question for AP Players
« Last post by Reyth on October 16, 2017, 03:16:12 PM »
There is only one way to bet a group of numbers and not use SU bets and regardless of what group we use, there will ALWAYS be a best one.  Is it comprised of only the top numbers?  NO.  It doesn't have to be, to be the best!

But EXCELLENT POINT -- Shouldn't the very best numbers gap even less and perform even better?

I have asked myself this question and have run some tests.  I have decided that the top 9 numbers should yield the best results long term, providing the most protection against fluctuation in performance, while minimizing "waste" bets on numbers that won't come in long-term.

Its certainly true that I make more money faster betting these numbers but I have a larger risk in bankroll amount too...

I haven't studied these 9 numbers very much...
95
Questions and Answers / Re: Question for AP Players
« Last post by MrPerfect. on October 16, 2017, 11:10:38 AM »
 Reyth. No need to be an expert in probability to understand few things that are simple.
   For example,  combinations on the felt do not really represent order of numbers on the wheel.
    There are much more posible combinations of numbers that may be useful, then felt presents for easy betting.
    Any software that is limited to group numbers either by felt or wheel order will provide incomplete view of betting opportunities posible.
            What if best numbers for given situation are dispersed on both wheel and felt order??? It happens often. Simple example : 1, 13, 24, 36....
 It's imposible to cover it easy on both wheel and felt order....
     We wanna bet the best bet selection , right?
                This is exactly what happens in this game: there is a limit of betting amount per number, limit of betting combinations of numbers, limit of players ability to visualise betting opportunities, limit in understanding,  limit in information avaliable for a player...  ets.
     It's lots of limits , isn't it?
96
Roulette Systems / Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Last post by Reyth on October 16, 2017, 03:01:41 AM »
Current Method

1) Spin 37 times and identify the KoH
1a) Spin longer if it is not yet clear
2) Bet 1/2 unit repeatedly  EXCEPT:

A) If your neighbor has had a gap of at least 11 spins since the last hit ==> Spin through until your neighbor gets a hit or has a PLE

B) If your neighbor has a PLE ==> Reset session

C) If there is a new KoH that has a neighbor with a PLE has two iterations:

<*>1) If the new KoH is less than 6 hits ahread ==> Spin through until the KoH status is restored or the new KoH becomes 6 hits ahead

<*>2) If the new KoH is at least 6 hits ahead ==> Reset session

D) If at the start of the progression, the NSP figure is >261 (red) ==> Bet 1 full unit

E) If at the start of the progression, the STR rating is 6 (red) AND there is no number that is 20 STR or above in the selection ==> Bet 1 full unit

Recovery is as in the Overview, in its section. 

Always bet the top performer according to the rules.  I do not switch selections in mid-progression, it is too powerful to try and second guess things and the rules will keep us from betting in questionable circumstances.

If there is a tie in the HS Ratio (before starting the progression), choose the selection with the highest NSP figure.





WELP!



No explanation for the PLE; 3 streets all gapped simultaneously.  Will stay in this session and play DS 19-24.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +11614



Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +11697



The creeping crud finally reached our neighbor and all hope for humanity is now lost!  Its literally like a zombie apocalypse!




Sun Deck Recovery.  Target: +11724



Debt fully recovered and humanity is saved!




This was a KoH takeover where I watched DS' 19-24 & 22-27 creep up and maintain a close distance for some time. Then the bottom half of the board just all got the short-term flow and it was like the top half was just abandoned.

I will stay with this session and bet DS 22-27.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +11764



This board is overrun by the zombie hoard, time to get out of Dodge!




Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +11847



Debt fully recovered.  Accidentally bet 2 units on the last bet instead of 1.



What are the reasons that selections hit?

1) Bias (KoH, long-term streak, fastest group of numbers)
2) Mini-Bias (QoH, second fastest group of numbers)
3) Gap Correction (PLE)
4) Hot Streak (short-term, current)
5) Cold Streak (short-term, correction)
6) Statistical Maintenance (general balance)

[ongoing...]



.
.


Check this out!  The zero is the hottest number in the game!  Hotter than all my selections but how am I doing?



Smokin' hot! +482 BU and counting, 130 less spins than expectation for the number of coups taken and 111 more coups than expected without a gap of 27 spins!  Total board dominance with our selection & neighbors.

I am literally IGNORING numbers 0, 2, 7, 16 & 20 (lucky number 20 lol) and IT DOESN'T MATTER! :D

All I needed was 3 red hot numbers and the rest mildy hot or mildly cold to DOMINATE the board.



The LotT takes care of the number distribution FOR ME, I just follow its lead. :D



Nice profitable run.  DS 31-36 stole very many of my hits.  I am going to try an experiment and stay in this session because the HS Ratio is so highly above the rest of the board and the PLE ratio is quite positive, being the highest rated of all selections, including those that haven't had a PLE yet (if they were to have a PLE).

Let's see if we can extend this run even farther...

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +12323



Well that experiment failed badly.



DS 1-6 was a competing selection, just recently having a BSE and we can see here how it stole the majority of the last 10 hits despite my selection being the long-term favorite and having very favorable gapping.

Well, such is roulette which can bring such rare sequences at any time.

Resetting session as now the PLE ratio is inferior to slower selections.

Level 3 Recovery.  Target: +11552



Resetting this corrupted session.



Wouldn't wanna be the guy on THAT DS! ;D 

That's a PLE and FOUR BSE's in a row! O_o



Everything was going well until during this final progression 3 PLE's occured within about 5-10 spins of each other and I never got my hit, despite at least decent statistics.

Currently at +8451.  Delicate work ahead.

Level 4 Recovery.  Target: +9792



Abandoning this session.



Starting new session.



Session reset.

Level 3 Recovery.  Target: +11510



Abandoning session.



I pushed this as far as I can.  Things are starting to get a bit hairy...  DS 1-6  looks bit better (203 NSP & neighbor 229)  and both 25-30 & 28-33 are bubbling under.  This session suffers from a depressed HS Ratio where simple short-term streaks can now change the KoH.

45 coups to hit the target.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +12255




Casino closed my session.




Because the statistics were very favorable, I pushed this one hard.

Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +12412



Before it tanked my selection was on fire and so I just pushed through to full recovery.

Abandoning this corrupted session.
97
Questions and Answers / Re: Question for AP Players
« Last post by Reyth on October 15, 2017, 11:02:16 PM »
Wow very interesting!  Well one thing I have recently done is notice when "bad times are a commin'" with my neighbors and during those times I will "take a breather" and sometimes my neighbor will get a hit by itself and I will gain an advantage on my selection but most of the time, it seems, I also miss out on a hit or two in the process.

I always bet my groups on the felt and so I have noticed certain "felt based phenomena" but its not because there is dust on the pixels or they are scratched... ;D

The phenomenon that we all face are the peaks and valleys of our selection:

HOT STREAK --- EXTENDS TOO FAR -- COLD STREAK -- EXTENDS TOO FAR -- (REPEAT)

I monitor both of these "peaks" and although there is no way to tell when the peak is finally reached or how much it will move from the extreme, our biased selection will spend less time in the cold streak than any other selections; the longer in a streak, the greater chances it will reverse.

There ARE certain amazing times when our selection is having a hot streak and a cold streak at the same time!  Its at these times that we get the most rapid hits in the shortest period. :D
98
Questions and Answers / Re: Question for AP Players
« Last post by MrPerfect. on October 15, 2017, 10:47:35 PM »
Scarface, l sou cases where as much as 12 " hot numbers" would switch off for a while. Like coming 2 times only in 100 spins. Odds of this should be simply ridiculous.
    It simply life of player to aquire data collection and data analysis skills. Player can associate specific numbers to specific conditions,  this way player need less data and his decisions will be more precise. 
    Best numbers on the wheel often do not become active all together, but come in groups. .. there are cases when hit to one of numbers from such group could be used as a trigger to bet on others. This kind of relationship can be traced even with  mathematics . Curently lm testing approach of Reyth to make excel take these decisions automatically. 
99
Questions and Answers / Re: Question for AP Players
« Last post by Reyth on October 15, 2017, 09:32:28 PM »
Our problem is there is no way to tell (without tracking the numbers) if the hot numbers that we are experiencing is a short-term trend (these are necessary for maintaining relatively balanced results) or a long-term trend where our numbers will continue to hit more often, even after slowing down; all numbers slow down.

You raise a great point though about playing at B&M casinos because for me it might as well be on Mars; I don't even think that way when thinking about how to play.  One good thing though that I have been doing is tracking the numbers for the last 37 spins and beginning to play from that; so I guess that would work at a B&M. :)
100
Questions and Answers / Re: Question for AP Players
« Last post by Scarface on October 15, 2017, 08:40:27 PM »

There must be a single Quad on the felt that must outperform every other, over a long term.


Doesn't even have to be a quad.  Could be any 4 hot numbers. :)  Everytime a play, which is normally 6 to 8 hours straight, there is always 1 or 2 numbers that continue to hit the whole time!

Sure, a number could suddenly go cold when you play it.  But what's the odds of 4 hot numbers all turning cold.  If 1 isn't performing well, could always switch it out with one that is
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 [10]