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Roulette Forum => Casino Lounge => Topic started by: dobbelsteen on November 20, 2014, 10:34:59 AM

Title: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 20, 2014, 10:34:59 AM
Dobbelsteen`s blog
On advice of Kav I open this thread as a blog. I play nearly 40 years in my land based casino in Zandvoord. This casino is the first legal casino of the Netherlands. From the beginning, I am addicted to the roulette.
The random sequences draw my specific attention. Since we have PCs, I simulate the roulette and study these sequences. I like to analyze the the different sequences. Mathematical and statistic knowledge is not necessary but very useful. In this thread, I will share my knowledge and experience with you. Some of my ideas I have publiced in other topics.
Don`t expect beautiful essays from me.
Some topics are to discus and others only to read or study. Don`t hesitate to contact me for questions.  English is not my first language, so I ask for a little bit understanding.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: TheGenner on November 20, 2014, 12:15:29 PM
Thank you for starting a blog Dobbelsteen,

 I am looking forward to reading your posts.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 20, 2014, 02:13:21 PM
In the Netherlands casinos the last French roulette is removed. They were too expensive to employ. In the busy hours there was a table chief and three croupiers. The croupiers take the announces and put the jetons on the table. The neighbour play  and sector play are very popular in Europe. Three croupiers were reduced by one and the jetons by colored chips. The table layout was expanded with a layout for the sector play. This was not enough and the table chief is replaced by camera`s. The next step in efficiency was the Multi roulette and the number of tables were reduced. The Multi Roulette consist of a table console coupled by a camera to more than one real table.
The roulette rules are the same, except the EN Prison rule. Now you lose your bets on the ECs after one zero instead of two zero`s. The name is changed in American roulette, but from my point of view only the double zero roulette is the American roulette.
My analyses and system tests are all based on this roulette.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on November 20, 2014, 02:52:45 PM
Dobbel,

Congratulations for starting this blog.
I know very well that it will be hard work to try and explain your thoughts as simply and clearly as possible in a foreign language. Take your time, you don't have to post everything at once.
Your first posts are very interesting and I like the fact that you start by explaining even the roulette tables you are playing at. Thank you very much for your efforts.

Keep up the good work!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Romn.Paras on November 20, 2014, 09:41:23 PM
Nice work Dobbel.

Looking forward to reading more of your blog. Keep up the great work!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Dane on November 21, 2014, 07:49:06 AM
Hello Dobbel,
Yes, looking forward to reading more here. I visited Holland once  many years ago together with a large group of meditators. Maharishi living there used to call Holland "The land of WHOLENESS". But when we are not joking, we ought to use the right names if we can. You seem to prefer "Netherlands".
Here in Denmark the  brick and mortar Casinos use to offer what they call "American Roulette"; but I think you are right that only the double zero roulette is the only true American roulette. In some book I read that the hybrid we know should be called "English roulette". At such roulette tables
Double zero means nothing to us. But in many European Casinos winners are strongly adviced to give tips ("Stück für die Angestellten") to the croupiers or dealers. Almost as bad as double zero!
This pressure differs froms country to country. Lately I learned in Spielbank Potsdam (close to Berlin),  that the airball roulette machine there automatically takes tips.
. In Denmark the Touchbet Roulette machine linked to a real roulette with dealer does NOT take tips! And at the main Casinos in Sweden the dealers are simply not allowed to receive tips!

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 21, 2014, 11:18:07 AM
Thanks you all for the encouraging words.
Till now I did not visit casinos abroad.
The touch screen roulette is the same as our Multi Roulette. On my email I received some questions about some details of the table console.
The console has a touch screen for the normal layout and the sector layout. There are six windows. The most import window is the window with the stats of the past 50 spins. Before I start  to play , I always consult first these stats. On the wager window you find the history board of the last 20 spins.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 24, 2014, 03:18:51 PM
Roulette House Edge: Is no big deal.
In this paper the influence of the house edge is explained. We have the mathematical approach of this theory and the practical one. The mathematicians compute the  probability of a chance, called the Expected Value.  The player is interested in the negative profit expectation of the game, called the House Edge. The EV of the France roulette is 2,7. For the ECs the HE is 1,35% and for all the other chances 2,7%.
Many roulette players do not know, that the HE also depends on the bets. Put your chips on a EC and other chances, the HE has a value between 2,7% and 1,35 %.
The HE of a mixed bet is easy to compute with a true sample of 37 spins. Put one unit on Red and one on every chance else for example number 26. The total input 74 units. The total payout  36 + 2x18+0,5=72,5 unit. The HE of this bet is 2,03%.
This comment makes the above mentioned paper more completed.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 25, 2014, 02:51:55 PM
List of the best roulette systems.

Are there bad and best roulette systems?

First we have to define a system. From my point of view, a system has a random begin of a play session and a finish with a hit. The soul of a system is the betting schedule. There are hundreds of systems, but the most famous or classic systems are D`Alembert, La Boucheere, Fabionaci and on this site the Kavourac Bet.

To judge the different, we must compare the permanence’s of the systems.

Each permanence must content the results of a macro long run sample and the average of a number nano samples. The largeness of the samples must be reprehensive for the kind of chance. In this case, I will keep me in the bounds of the ECs without the EN Prison rule.
For all systems the long run theory is valid .The loss shall be 2,7% of the total bets. It is much more difficult to judge small samples. The variance and the deviations are big. For a reliable comparison it is necessary to compute the average of a lot of samples. I did it for many systems and my conclusion is, the differences are too small, to give a honest answer, which is the best system.

For ranking the systems, the HE is more suitable. From this point of view all systems on the ECs are the best. Second best are the mixed bet systems and last all the other ones.
The number of units, you bet per spin, influence your loss of units. From this point of view, a flat betting system on the ECs with one unit is the best.
Not occasional I did not mention the Martingale system. An unlimited Martingale session shall always end with a profit. It is the only system who beats the HE. My Martingale SSB system is based on an opportunity with a chance of 1 to 2^20. The graph of a 150 spin sample gives a profit of about 70 units.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 26, 2014, 01:52:57 PM
The3 triangle of Blaise Pascal

Before you design a system or a strategy, you must learn a little bit about the statistic expectations. Special for the DCs the triangle of Blaise Pascal is a very handsome tool.
The picture shows all the possible combinations after a number of spins.
The picture is an example for a 4 spin sample. It is easy to make such a picture for a 6 spin sample.


                                   The triangle of Blaisse Pascal

                                 Possible sequences after 4 spins

Spins                                                 Occurrences
             1                        R     Z                        2
             2                     R     Z      R                    4
             3                  R    Z     R      Z                 8
             4               R    Z    R      Z     R             16

             After 4 spins there are 16 possible series.

       These are:
                         RRRR         ZZZZ
                         RRRZ         ZZZR
                         RRZZ         ZZRR
                         RRZR         ZZRZ
                         RZZZ          ZRRR
                         RZRR          ZRZZ
                         RZRZ          ZRZR
                         RZZR          ZRRZ

            There are at least 64 spins need, to create these 16 series.
   The zero is denied.
   It is very easy to expend this triangle for more spins.
   A 6 spins event has 64 different series. To create all these series you need 384 spins.
    A 10 spins series  has a chance of 2^10=1024 to 1.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Dane on November 26, 2014, 01:55:17 PM
"An unlimited Martingale session shall always end with a profit". Sure!
This idea has fascinated many beginners. A nice dream!
Listen to Bob Dylan´s "LOVE MINUS ZERO (NO LIMITS)"!
In the real world, however, we are  almost always confronted with both Zero AND A LIMIT.

With negative progressions it is simply a question of time, before we lose!
Anyone can "prove" that some method seems to be superiour with a negative progressions in the short run.

"LOOK AT THIS - MY BALOON IS GOING UP, UP, UP"

Better find out, if your bet selection
passes the test of TIME when you use MASSE
                                                        ÉGALE  (flat betting)!

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on November 26, 2014, 02:26:23 PM
If your bet selection can win with flat betting, then you don't need a system. Just bet the "magical bet selection" again and again. However this seems much more unrealistic than a winning roulette strategy.

I copy what I posted in another forum:
Quote
Roulette is a game, constructed to give the advantage to the casino.
In order to be able to compete with this we must use every little option we have at our disposal.
Entry and exit points, observation, bet selection and of course money management are options and tools in our quest to win.
It would be stupid not to use each and every one of them to create a valid strategy.

Flat betting only means that you think your bet will come more often than theoretically expected. This is a huge unprovable claim! (not to use another word)
Furthermore if there was a system that wins flat betting, it can easily be turned into a system that wins even more by using the proper progression.

Roulette is a hard game as it is. Use all your options in your fight. You have not the luxury to dismiss the flexibility and adaptability offered by the proper money management.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Dane on November 26, 2014, 02:49:07 PM
If your bet selection can win with flat betting, then you don't need a system. Just bet the "magical bet selection" again and again. However this seems much more unrealistic than a winning roulette strategy.

I copy what I posted in another forum:
Quote
Roulette is a game, constructed to give the advantage to the casino.
In order to be able to compete with this we must use every little option we have at our disposal.
Entry and exit points, observation, bet selection and of course money management are options and tools in our quest to win.
It would be stupid not to use each and every one of them to create a valid strategy.

Flat betting only means that you think your bet will come more often than theoretically expected. This is a huge unprovable claim! (not to use another word)
Furthermore if there was a system that wins flat betting, it can easily be turned into a system that wins even more by using the proper progression.

Roulette is a hard game as it is. Use all your options in your fight. You have not the luxury to dismiss the flexibility and adaptability offered by the proper money management.


If the short term solutions with dreams,  flexibility, adaptability and proper management words
did not include negative progressions as an option, then the number of letters here might be reduced!
An alternative to what seems to be narrowminded MASSE
                                                                         ÉGALE thinking could be positive progressions.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on November 26, 2014, 03:15:09 PM
So you say that you don't believe in the benefit of up as you lose progressions.
That's ok.
However, we must realize that when we talk about a bet selection that can win with flat betting, is, in essence, almost as outrageous, as saying that 'I know which number will come next'.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Dane on November 27, 2014, 09:56:23 AM
I am sure that that casinos are happy to see guests
who find flat betting "almost outrageous".

I have recently developed a method with flat betting on single numbers
COMBINED WITH A POSITIVE PROGRESSION ("up as you win") on streets.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 28, 2014, 01:46:06 PM
Every system without a plan or strategy should fail.

A player shall always play nano sessions.
The outcome of the roulette has a character of a  wave with crests and wave length.
The nano sample has large crests and a short wave length. A strategy uses these features.

A very dull strategy with a guarantee profit is flat betting after a crest of about 12 units. After an unpredictable number of spins  a positive crest shall change in a negative crest. In a macro sample the wave length can be   much more than 100 spins.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ahraneas on December 05, 2014, 04:29:27 PM
Hello Kav, Rom, and Dobbelsteen and others,

I like to thank you all for welcome me to this forum. Dobbelsteen has kinda told me about this forum, and we met 5 months ago in Zandvoort at the casino. I am a pretty social person, so we sat next to eachother and had a few nice chats on a few nights out. I am living in Haarlem, and i am 27. Usually i take my Prius to drive to Zandvoort to gamble there. I find it very difficult to exactly see, and learn what i need to know for the roulette table and the knowledge behind it. On school i never really could calculate very well, languages and history lessons used to be more my cup-of-tea!

If you do know the very basic of the game, where should i really start reading about the deeper things? The forum is full with nice info, but it's all so detailed and long. My apologies but i found it really difficult to see which or what methods are born out of which or what motivation.

Kind regards,

Rick.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on December 05, 2014, 05:23:25 PM
Hello Rick,

First of all it is nice to meet people who have actually laid money on a roulette table. Believe it or not there are people in roulette forum that have never been to a casino.
Anyway, math knowledge is important, but you don't have to be a math professor. Basic gamble math is not that hard. In order to start understanding what a roulette system is and how it works I would suggest to start by reading the systems presented in our main site:  Roulette Systems  (http://www.roulette30.com/2014/04/top-9-roulette-systems.html)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 06, 2014, 10:54:01 AM
Flat betting on every chance as a system is a very dull method.

 Do you believe in the equilibrium rule than you can wager flat betting with an idea.
 
On the Multi Roulette I watch very frequent the stats of the last 50 spins.

The differences between the ECs is very rare 0 and seldom more than 12. Shows the stats 18 Red and 31 Black and one zero, with a minimum of risk I predict a profit within the next spins.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on December 06, 2014, 04:17:22 PM
Dobbelsteen,

Observing those stats is utterly worthless.  Read on the gambler's fallacy to understand why.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 08, 2014, 10:11:30 AM
Losers will always refer to the Gamblers Fallacy.

 All successful players shall lose on the long run.

It is very hard to discuss roulette with disappointed gamblers.

For a statistical player the Gamblers Fallacy is a big lie. I agree the statements in that paper.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ahraneas on December 09, 2014, 12:36:31 AM
Betting on an even bet, should never give you a 100% win chance (duh, logic). But the Martingale betting technique, is something that actually is a proven method to work correctly in favor of the player. The fact is that if you bet on an even bet, (example red), there is ALWAYS a chance the next 35 spins will be black. Meaning that you lose 35 times. But if you do have infinite funds, or just a hell-load of money, the chance is very VERY big that within those losing spins, just red will fall. This said, i believe in a winning method in roulette. Casino's ward themselves for this betting technique. But this is not always the case. I have alot of money on my bank. I consider making money this way. I don't wanna become arrogant, i just wanna take part in the discussion here on the forum. These last days i centralized roulette in my life. I do alot of research. ~*Ahra.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Romn.Paras on December 09, 2014, 01:20:55 AM
Hello Ahraneas.  Welcome to the forum. Feel free to look at all of the discussions, articles,  and posts. Kav has put together a very professional forum and site. There are many wonderful resources and articles to read here. Please don't hesitate to ask any of us if you have any questions or feel free to share some systems or methods you like.  What is fun about roulette is that there is no one correct way to play.  I look forward to watching you succeed on your journey.  Once again, welcome. 

I have attached a pdf of a copy of one of my favorite books. It explains the game well and I use it as a corner stone for some of my personal systems.  Plus it is a fun read as well.  This book was written in 1910.

One of the most helpful hints I can give from experience is that you have to go to the casino IN PERSON. This is why I have so much respect for Kav and others on the forum. They put their money where their mouth is just like I do .  Play for real, not online or on a computer. There are other variables that you will experience in real life that are not factored into a computer. 

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ahraneas on December 10, 2014, 02:06:23 AM
Thanks for your kind words. Real nice to see that the people here are so kind and friendly. The forum indeed looks very nice and professional. I will look into the PDF file you have sant. I will let you know when i have read it.

Kind regards,

~*Ahra
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 10, 2014, 02:54:30 PM
Is the initial bankroll relevant?

Some of you publishes here on this forum their ideas and strategies and systems. The bankroll becomes high priority. I approach the roulette as a game. My intension is, to beat the HE. I am succeed, when I have a positive balance of my units at the end of a session. I do not think or compute the roulette with money.

The initial bankroll is total irrelevant. There is no connection between the bankroll and the HE. Much more important is the result in relation with the total number units you have bet. With an initial number of units of 200 with some luck, you can bet during a session more than 3000 units. The HE predict a loss of about 81 units. You are a very good player, if you realize a profit of about 2%. From this point of view be satisfied with a profit of 60 units.

When you want to double the initial 200 units, you have to bet 10000 units!!!!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ahraneas on December 11, 2014, 10:34:09 AM
Hello everyone. I wanna read the PDF file first that was linked a few days ago to me. I have to study this, but i must have some time (i'm not much of a reader). Just am here to let you all know that i keep following the forum, and that i am very interested in the future posts.

~*Ahra.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on December 13, 2014, 10:50:07 PM
Quote
But the Martingale betting technique, is something that actually is a proven method to work correctly in favor of the player.


Sorry, but on the contrary, it most certainly does NOT work.  It has been mathematically proven to fail.


The reason:  (the sum of all bets in the Martingale) x (house edge) = negative long term expectation.


Quitting while ahead, setting loss limits, waiting for "triggers" is nothing more than the gambler's fallacy.  It is nothing more than a fools folly.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 14, 2014, 01:37:11 PM
Real you always repeat the same statements ,we already know. The experience players warn the starting players for the danger of the martingale bet.

The mathematical loss of a roulette system is always the house edge multiplied by the total amount of the betting. This is not alone for martingale but for every system. Wheel watching and AP are not systems. These methods have also a negative profit percentage.

My Martingale system has an expectation that an event will not occurs on 2^20 spins with a risk to lose of 1023 units. There is never a waiting time for an opportunity to bet.

You have never taken the troubles to research the program.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on December 15, 2014, 06:37:28 AM
Quote
Wheel watching and AP are not systems. These methods have also a negative profit percentage. -dobbelsteen 


No they do have an edge.  That's why we call them "advantage play".
Quote
My Martingale system has an expectation that an event will not occurs on 2^20 spins with a risk to lose of 1023 units. There is never a waiting time for an opportunity to bet.You have never taken the troubles to research the program. -dobbelsteen





Sorry dobbelsteen, but you have never taken the time to fully study the math.  Your Martingale will not work, for the reasons that have already been stated by countless mathematicians time and time and time again. 



-Real 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 15, 2014, 11:15:12 AM
Real you have never explained your EDGE. You are not the only AP player who claims an EDGE. How can an AP player ascertain his edge.
You have never the courage to research my program. I have never claimed my program is a HG.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on December 16, 2014, 12:05:50 AM
Quote
Real you have never explained your EDGE. You are not the only AP player who claims an EDGE. How can an AP player ascertain his edge.


Simple, using physics.  Whether it's using physics, or playing on a biased wheel, the player is exploiting inefficiencies in the wheel, not the game or layout. 


In VB the player is taking into account the speed and position of the rotor in relation to the decaying ball on the track in order to make a prediction as to what number will be below the dominant ball drop at the end of the spin.  This enables the player to hit more frequently than what normal probability would dictate, and enables the player to overcome the house edge.


With bias, the player is again exploiting the wheel, not the game.  The player plays on numbers that hit more frequently than they should because of physical problems that exist on the wheel.  Such as, poor wheel assembly or wear and tear.  Because the ball will hit these biased pockets more frequently, the player is again able to overcome the house edge.  Such biases are observed, measured, and tested by using tests such as coefficient of restitution testing and data collection, as well as acoustic and visual observations.


Quote
You have never the courage to research my program. I have never claimed my program is a HG

Why do you feel that you're program enables  someone to win in the long run???



Best of luck,

-Real
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ahraneas on December 16, 2014, 12:27:59 AM
Quote
Wheel watching and AP are not systems. These methods have also a negative profit percentage. -dobbelsteen 


No they do have an edge.  That's why we call them "advantage play".
Quote
My Martingale system has an expectation that an event will not occurs on 2^20 spins with a risk to lose of 1023 units. There is never a waiting time for an opportunity to bet.You have never taken the troubles to research the program. -dobbelsteen





Sorry dobbelsteen, but you have never taken the time to fully study the math.  Your Martingale will not work, for the reasons that have already been stated by countless mathematicians time and time and time again. 



-Real 

I do not gonna join a discussion with no ending. It's like people bragging about which one of Apple OR Windows is better, has no use. It's all about preferences.

I do have something to say:

1. You either go to the casino for the fun as a reason. A casino isn't a restaurant, or a cafe / pub. A casino is very very luxurious mostly, and you must see yourself as a very special guest to those who own the casino. They become rich with YOU as a customer, so you can and must expect FULL services and FULL customer satisfaction!
2. Or for the reason of a (big) win, the reason is to make money, and to beat the casino. Often this is an abusive manner of play for SOME people. They don't know boundary's.

Okay, now i said (wrote duh!), what i wanted, but i consider another party in play if it concerns casino customers. In my casino years (which are only 2 years), i have seen many different kinda customers. I have been in four casino's. Most of the times i have been heading to a cheaper version casino with low bets on roulette (20 cent per bet). I noticed that this 1 casino had ALWAYS young customers. But this casino was filthy, and badly employed. Also they didnt had an alcohol license, so they had to attract customers via free food and non-alcoholic drinks. The quality was much lower. I guess this casino attracted more addicted gamblers, and also lower educated people (hence it's laying close to bigger city's with wider variety poor/welfare-people). But now i finally come to my point haaa! I do know Dobbelsteen from e-mail conversation, and we have met around 4 times in the same casino. This is The Netherlands / Holland's, only 'real' casino who is prohibit to deliver a service with gambling AND alcohol. They are the MAIN company to our country that kinda is offering this. I have been in this casino ONLY this year, 26 times.

Bottomline of this exhausting story; I have seen them gamble on many days, and many different moments in different casino's, and Dobbelsteen is not the kinda 'abusive' player. I do not consider him and myself as addicted gamblers. And i must say that i cannot be 100% certain about what i say about Dobbelsteen. But i think he's an highly educated person. I know about his job history and school history, and this is above average (which isn't normally the case for casino customers). I have studied his methods (which he sant in an excel document via mail). I have studied this via self read, and i have studied this with 2 friends of mine both FAR ABOVE average educated. And we simply really do come to the conclusion, that this technique works...

I only try to say: Study the method first, and become sceptic atleast after you studied it. When i met Dobbelsteen first time, i thought it was a big load of crap (haha sorry Dobbel!). But it isn't really the case, and even although it would be a load of crap (it isn't but i am just saying), i MYSELF visit the casino because my relationship ended 6 years ago, and i simply never fully recovered from a few nasty private things in my life. I allow myself to go to the casino to kill some hours with a nice car trip, and a nice evening. Sometimes i only go with 10 euro. There's basically just people that go there for fun man. And in the casino where Dobbelsteen and me usually come, there's alot of older people. I think people just don't always wanna be alone.

That's how the casino's are around Amsterdam in Holland. It should lose it's negative vibe. I do not drink and i dont smoke, still i do not complaint about people who do. You understand? It's a long debate, and i spilled too many words! Good night everyone!

~*Ahra.

EDIT: I like to add that we have ran 700 times, 130 wheel-spins. 700 those are the casino visits. And per visit we simulated 130 wheel spins. They spin each 2 minutes to 2,5 minutes when it's busy in the casino. When it is not busy and just opened once they spin each minute. Still we had profit, and a max lose (so we could determine whether this was profitable).
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 18, 2014, 10:46:26 PM
Understand the roulette wheel: 10 secrets revealed (http://www.roulette30.com/2014/04/roulette-wheel.html).

In this assay the differences between the American wheel and the France wheel are described. The explanation is very clear. For the more interested roulette player, who plays in a land based casino, it is a must to read this paper.

The designs of the wheels should have an emanation of a fair game. The distribution of the numbers around the circumference is one part  of that strive. Especially the France roulette has particular features. They are described very well.

By studying the American wheel  I discovered an unknown and not mentioned particular. The circumference is divided in two halves by the zero and the double zero. In the clockwise direction you can compute the opposite numbers with the following algorithm.
   -1+1-1-1+1+1-1-1+1+1-1-1+1+1-1-1+1+1

   0—28-9—26-30-  11-  7—20-32- 17-  5— 22-34- 15-  3—24-36-13-  1
      -1  +1   -1  -1  +1 +1   -1  -1  +1  +1   -1  -1  +1 +1   -1  -1 +1 +1
 00-27-10--25-29-  12- 8— 19-31- 18-  6— 21-33- 16-  4-  23-35-14-  2

The right halve contents all even high numbers and the left halve all odd low numbers.
The AR has copied the colors red and black from the France roulette. By doing this the table layout of the AR and the FR are the same except the double zero. A red number is followed with a black one. If you give the low  and high numbers also a color, then you become the same phenomenon. This is not the case with the even and odd numbers.

The hot question, has the distribution  of the numbers an influence on the randomness of the occurrences ?
The answer is no!!

IF you concrete the consecutive pockets the 0  to 36, the random sequence has exactly the same features. This is perhaps very disappointed for the roulette system designers. It is very easy to transform an ER random sequence in an AR random sequence. The real roulette wheels are true Random Number Generators.

The shape of the pockets has also no influence on the results.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 24, 2014, 10:31:36 AM
I wish all my fellow roulette players a Merry Christmas and a Happy successful year.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ahraneas on December 24, 2014, 11:34:53 AM
Everyone indeed a very nice christmas, and a very happy new year!

Yesterday i was in the casino, en there i met Dobbelsteen. We have had a very nice evening with a very good chat concerning the roulette tactics. I was placing my bets the same way Dobbelsteen did, and i already had some losses. But when i followed Dobbelsteen's example, i slowly got back to a positive result. I really enjoyed the time we had in the casino, and i got back home with only 13 euro loss. If i wouldnt have followed Dobbelsteen's example, i wouldve gone home with atleast 40 euro loss. The loss i gain, was my own mistake, but i am starting to get the hang of it while following Dobbelsteen's lead.

It was a very nice evening and i like to thank him here for that. I hope we all will book successes in our games in the casino!

Merry christmas!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on December 24, 2014, 10:30:29 PM
My best wishes my friends!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ahraneas on December 28, 2014, 02:17:03 AM
This week i have some funds again to drop on the roulette wheel. As i am alone with the holiday's for four consecutive years, i probably seek the nice times in the casino. Thanks Kav for your kind words! Have you booked any successes lately with roulette? How did you placed the bets?

Did you had a nice christmas with family Dobbelsteen? Good night everyone :)!

~*Ahra
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 30, 2014, 02:25:58 PM
For lovers of sector playing, I have developed an alternative for the France sectors. I divide the circumference of the FR in a right end a left halve.
The distribution of the figures on the France roulette makes it possible to create a system and a strategy using the roulette wheel layout  and the table layout.
The right halve (Rh) with the figures 32-10 and a left halve (Lh) 26-5.
The Rh contains the red high numbers and the black low numbers.
The Lh contains the red low numbers and the black high numbers.

The roulette as a true RNG creates for the Rh and Lh a true random sequence. This sequence has exactly the same features as the random sequences of the R/B and L/H  chances. All strategies of the ECs are also suitable for the Rh/Lh sequence.
The diagrams show the results of a 150 and a 50 spin sample. After about 100 spins the long run theory starts.
(http://[IMG]http://i61.tinypic.com/10ydst3.gif)[/img]For lovers of sector playing, I have developed an alternative for the France sectors. I divide the circumference of the
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 30, 2014, 02:35:31 PM
(http://i61.tinypic.com/10ydst3.gif)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 30, 2014, 02:39:34 PM
This was the first try to put a image onthe blog.
Not every thing does right. Thanks AHRA.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on December 30, 2014, 06:01:31 PM
I don't see the point in graphing the ECs.  It's a waste of time.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 31, 2014, 12:44:31 PM
I think you are blind for diagrams. At other places on this forum I have published the diagrams of High\Low. Study all these diagrams and you shall discover the the features they have in common. Study interested cases is never waist of time.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on December 31, 2014, 05:07:33 PM
Dobbelsteen,

I don't know why you seem to get so excited by it.  Perhaps you can explain why.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on January 04, 2015, 04:23:11 PM
The most players base their odds on a particular expectation. These expectations are normally anomalies of the statistic expectation or an event that occurs once on a large number of spins.
Every  roulette sequence is one of all random sequences. There are no unbelievable sequences.
 Is your method or strategy based on these features, it is important to learn these features by heart. Every chance has his own features and I have tried to make some tables of them.

First the table for the ECs

  Feature      0 rep.     1x       2x     3x     4x      5x       6x
  spins          1            2        4       8      16      32       64

 A 6 spins sequence of Red/Black has the same chance as a 6repeater in the color.
The optimist says this happens once in on 64 spins ,the pessimist says your chance on a hit is 48.6%.
The next table is for the dozens and columns.

feature      0 rep.      1x     2x       3x        4x       5x        6x
spins         1             3       9         27       81       243      729

After a 4 dozen repeater I always bet the other 2 dozens.

For the double street follows the next table.

feature       0 rep.    1x       2x       3x        4x
spins          6           36      216      1296    7776

For the streets I found.

feature        0 rep       1x         2x           3x       
spins           12           144       1728       20736



In small samples the zero has very less influence.

In my strategy an anomaly of three times the statistic expectation is a signal to start betting. Sometimes there are two signals. For example  dozen 1 has not fallen in 9 spins and the low numbers have not fallen in the last 6 spins. Is there also an unbalance for red, then square 7/11 is a hot spot!!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ahraneas on January 06, 2015, 09:29:01 PM
Hey Dobbel and Real,

@ Dobbel; if you need any help just ask i will always try what i can do.

I just was in the casino, played some roulette. Can't say much about the tactics. I was just trying some things, and i did some bets a friend placed. Ended up with what you see on the photo. I started with 30 euro. I got 20 from that friend, so basically my own investment was only 10 euro.

Nice run! @ Dobbel; i hope to see you soon in the casino. Maybe we should meet via mail if you want?

~*Ahra.

(http://i60.tinypic.com/2ep60dg.jpg)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on January 09, 2015, 11:11:08 PM
Systems.
A system is a method with fixed conditions. The conditions are the triggers and the betting scheme.

I classify the systems in three groups.
1. the systems with only a betting scheme such as Labouchere, Martingale, Fibonacci etc.
2. systems with a trigger.
3. systems with triggers and a betting scheme.

A second classification is:
 1. beautiful ones.
2. complicated ones
3. simple ones
There are no ugly or bad systems.

All systems have the same features, but they are different for long run and small samples. The number of spins for a small sample depends on the kind of the chance.
The most important feature is, a system cannot beat the house edge.
The result shall always oscillate between a positive and a negative percentage of the total input. The more the sample is larger the more the difference between a positive and negative result is smaller. The result of a long run sample is negative.
A player plays always a small sample. This is the reason you cannot predict the final result. The experience player stops  a session with a profit. The number of spins for a positive result is unpredictable.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: BlueAngel on January 10, 2015, 03:57:02 PM
Systems.
A system is a method with fixed conditions. The conditions are the triggers and the betting scheme.

I classify the systems in three groups.
1. the systems with only a betting scheme such as Labouchere, Martingale, Fibonacci etc.
2. systems with a trigger.
3. systems with triggers and a betting scheme.

A second classification is:
 1. beautiful ones.
2. complicated ones
3. simple ones
There are no ugly or bad systems.
Oh,yes there are MANY UGLY systems out there unfortunately!
How do you think the majority losing?? Hah??
Ugly is a system which is very simplistic,it's becoming dull and very boring eventually!
Ugly is a system which is very complicated,so complicated you cannot follow it any given time.
Ugly is a system which is very impractical,for example to risk too much money for a much smaller return,or to sit and wait without betting for hours!!!If you want to gain just a little by risking too much money and time,you DON'T have to go at a casino,there are plenty of other options to do this!!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on January 11, 2015, 01:16:20 PM
BlueAngel you have another definition of ugly.
 You can also make a classification  of good , best and better or bad, badder and badst.
The simplist systems are good the very complicated system are bad.

Your system of flat betting is one of the baddest. Do you agree with my refutatio of the betting scheme and your conclusion?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on January 11, 2015, 01:18:41 PM
We have short run and long run samples.
 The deviation of the statistic expectation is in a short run sample very large. We speak about a long run sample as  the  expectation has a very small deviation with the statistic expectation.

The trigger of a system is an event of the random sequence. The trigger has also the feature of a statistic expectation. This is the reason why the deviation between the profit and the loss osculates.
 
A short run sample can ended with a profit or a loss. This is up to the roulette player. A long run sample shall always end in a loss of about 2.7% of the total input. These results are predictable.

A player shall always play a short run sample. Do you try to become a successful player, you have to study the features of the short run sample. 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: BlueAngel on January 11, 2015, 05:30:32 PM
BlueAngel you have another definition of ugly.
 You can also make a classification  of good , best and better or bad, badder and badst.
The simplist systems are good the very complicated system are bad.

Your system of flat betting is one of the baddest. Do you agree with my refutatio of the betting scheme and your conclusion?

This is just your opinion.
Of course is not my best,but I've seen worst on this forum...
Anyway,it's not as bad as you may think.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on January 12, 2015, 03:22:58 PM
I am not a writer and my English is poor. English is not my first language. When I am not clear, contact me. I am a researcher, analiticus and a teacher.

  The most players wager on the chances of the table layout. Most systems are based on the opportunities of these chances.
 An alternative method of wagering is to bet on special events of the chances. Special is relative. The repeaters of the chances can be used as special events.
 As earlier mentioned, these events have a random sequence and statistic expectations.

For example take the system High Aces from Ignatus. The trigger is a repeat of a dozen. What is the statistic expectation of a repeat of a dozen? Blaise Pascal learns us that the expectation is 3^2=9.
5-7 Is a repeater but the sequence 5-7-12 gives two repeaters namely 5-7 and 7-12. My program counts these repeaters.
 The statistic expectation is the number of spins divided by 9. As long as this result has a relative large anomaly with the statistic expectation, the sample is a short run sample. I think ,the long run sample starts after more than 10000 spins.

This is the explanation why you cannot draw conclusions from the results of the diagrams of Ignatus and mine.     
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: BlueAngel on January 12, 2015, 03:52:38 PM
I am not a writer and my English is poor. English is not my first language. When I am not clear, contact me. I am a researcher, analiticus and a teacher.

  The most players wager on the chances of the table layout. Most systems are based on the opportunities of these chances.
 An alternative method of wagering is to bet on special events of the chances. Special is relative. The repeaters of the chances can be used as special events.
 As earlier mentioned, these events have a random sequence and statistic expectations.

For example take the system High Aces from Ignatus. The trigger is a repeat of a dozen. What is the statistic expectation of a repeat of a dozen? Blaise Pascal learns us that the expectation is 3^2=9.
5-7 Is a repeater but the sequence 5-7-12 gives two repeaters namely 5-7 and 7-12. My program counts these repeaters.
 The statistic expectation is the number of spins divided by 9. As long as this result has a relative large anomaly with the statistic expectation, the sample is a short run sample. I think ,the long run sample starts after more than 10000 spins.

This is the explanation why you cannot draw conclusions from the results of the diagrams of Ignatus and mine.     

In my opinion a better approach would be to set up triggers and indicators based on the wheel layout instead of the table because that's where the results are coming from.
But the table layout offers a cheaper way to bet a group of numbers,for example instead of betting 12 times 5 Euros,you could bet 5 on a dozen.
But like I said before,if you check the numbers of a dozen or any other group inside the wheel layout,you will find that those numbers are scattered all over the place!
Thus a system like waiting for a dozen to hit or not to and then betting on the dozen's numbers it does NOT make any sense to me!
Don't get me wrong,I'm not referring specifically on Ignatus's system,but to all of this kind of systems.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on January 13, 2015, 11:15:15 AM
The wheel layout has no influence on the random sequence. Some of the chances of the table layout  can be played with the same strategies and systems.

For the numbers and the ECs there is no difference.
For example the following suggestion.

Every 12 numbers together is a dozen or a column.
dozen 1 is 32-15-19-4-21-2-25-17-34-6-27-13
dozen 2 is 36-11-30-8-23-10-5-24-16-33-1-20
dozen 3 is 14-31-9-22-18-29-7-28-12-35-3-26
zero stays the zero
DS 32-15-19-4-21-2/25-17-34-6-27-13/- etc.
Streets  32-15-19/4-21-2/etc.
square  32-15-19-4/21-2-25-17/ etc.
split       32-15/19-14/21-2/ etc.

The numbers of squares and splits are not the same as on the table.

These distribution of the chances round the circumference of the wheel has exactly random sequences with the same features. Systems of these distribution of the chances are very hard to program.

The table layout makes it possible to bet on all the chances with a single unit. This is the most important advantage of the table layout. It is much more difficult to design systems for sector playing.
 
I belief , the roulette devices in the legal casinos are true and create fair random sequences.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on January 17, 2015, 12:38:53 PM
The table layout has 157 different chances. Every chance has a random occurrence and random sequence. The wheel layout has also countless wager possibilities. For all these chances you can design innumerable systems. The most chances are not suitable for useful systems.

The enlargement of the short run sample makes the difference. The short run sample of the ECs is the smallest and about 150 spins. This is the reason that  for the ECs the most and the beautifully system are developed through decenniums. Since Blaise Pascal has made his beautiful distribution of the numbers of the roulette, people try to find the Holy Grail.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on January 18, 2015, 09:19:36 PM
My demo.
View My Video (http://nl.tinypic.com/r/15zh6q1/8)                                                                                   
Some years ago I  have made a video of a roulette demonstration. At that time I wrote on a Dutch roulette site and I had my own website. In the Netherlands are many casino visitors but for my theory of the roulette was  very little interest.

I played much time on internet. My favorite internet casino was Roxy Palace.  The voiceover is my Dutch partner. In the beginning she explains the layout of the screen. On the screen you can see the different buttons to operate the roulette.
 
 The history board shows the last numbers. On a display the balance is recorded. Note the start and finish balance to compute the profit. There is also a display for the bets and the payout.
With the spin button the roulette RNG is started, but this is only possible after a bet. If there is no trigger to bet I put one unit on Red and Black with the risk I lose one unit.

On the ECs I bet very carefully the Martingale system.
After 4 repeaters on the dozens or columns I bet the other dozens or columns.
My favorite bet is on the double streets or a combination of 2 streets.
If you bet on 5 double streets, then it is possible to put three units on High or Low. In that case you do not lose the whole bet with the zero.
Examples:
trigger  1- 7-11-6       Bet dozen 2 and 2
trigger   3-30-15 24  Bet column 1 and 2
trigger   15- 16           bet 2 units on dozen 1 and 3 units on High
trigger   5-6 -23-5      bet ST 1/3  -DS 7/12 –DS 13/18 –ST 19/21 and  Dozen 3
trigger   33-36   bet 6 units Low 1 unit Sp19/23 and 25/29  DS 19/24 and     25/30
 
Sometimes I bet on more than one chance.

My manner of playing is much better to explain with a live demonstration.           
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on January 26, 2015, 02:21:56 PM
(http://i62.tinypic.com/i72wyq.gif)

In the topic “ Is it a Holy Grail ??? “ I reported that a consequent wager on an EC has the same features as my SSB system. The difference is ,the wager is on an event that happens once in 512 spins. The risk is very low. I programmed this method in excel and here is the proof.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on January 26, 2015, 02:27:50 PM
The program is free to order. The profit of a 150 spin sample is Always about 70 units. Once more it is not a Holy Grail !!!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on January 26, 2015, 04:58:27 PM
Dobbelsteen,

If you want to discuss roulette you are welcome and I appreciate very much your contribution. However I'd this forum to not be a place to fish for potential buyers or make contacts. Thanks for your understanding.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Birima on January 26, 2015, 11:00:21 PM
Kav, I think he said 'free'. Using the word 'order' may be confusing.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on January 26, 2015, 11:15:26 PM
Kav,
I thing we do not understand each other. This site is the best I found on internet. The monographs are very interested and teachable.
The forum is not only for high educated members. I try in very simple English to explain my theory about the roulette game and roulette strategy. The basic is the statistic theory of Blaise Pascal. Without the knowledge of random rows it is impossible to become a successful player. My computer simulations are tools to understand the features of the rows. The diagrams tell much more than thousand words.
Not everyone is a programmer. Though the excel software is very simple, the programming takes a lot of time. My programs are not secret and free suitable for all members. I like to share my knowledge and experience .
I do not sell  my knowledge. On internet you can buy books, software and devices for much money. The system testers used by Ignatus and BlueAngel are to buy on internet. From my point of view it is waist money
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on January 27, 2015, 10:52:08 AM
The martingale systems of the ECs has a particular feature.
The sum of the profit is a nearly linear oblique line with the equation sum profit=7/15 *number of spins.
Within a small deviation you can predict the result of large samples. For example a 1500 spin sample, you can expect a profit of  about 700 units.
You can find the explanation in the features of the random sequence of the ECs.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: john518 on January 28, 2015, 12:44:16 AM
Dobbelsteen,

It seems that you study the roulette by using the excel software extensively.
Have you ever tried your methods using real money in real casino roulette games?
If yes, what are the results?
Theory is one thing, and reality may be a different thing.

Thanks, John
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on January 28, 2015, 03:23:09 PM
My house casino is on walk distance. I visit the casino 3 6 times aweek. I play only the roulette with my strategy and skill. I have no Holy Grail and  I have also my bad days. Overall I am succsessfull but I shall never become a millionair. A realastic profit is about 1% to 2%  of all the bets on a FR.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: john518 on February 01, 2015, 02:02:05 AM
My house casino is on walk distance. I visit the casino 3 6 times aweek. I play only the roulette with my strategy and skill. I have no Holy Grail and  I have also my bad days. Overall I am succsessfull but I shall never become a millionair. A realastic profit is about 1% to 2%  of all the bets on a FR.

Hi Dobbelsteen,
"A realistic profit is about 1-2% of all bets" is GOOD enough to make yourself a millionaire!
Imagine this: let's say your profit rate is 1.5%, and all you need is a bankroll of 10K.
Therefore, you play this way and make about 1500 everyday.
After 1 year, you will make about 55K
After 2 years, you will make about 1.1M
2 years to make a millionaire is very very good, agree?
Would you like to give this a try? :)
John
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 01, 2015, 10:58:04 PM
John your calculation is too simple. I do all my studies with units and not with money. In descriptions of UK and US players  pounds and dollars are often used.

This afternoon I played roulette on three tables during a hour. I won 50 units and that is a very good result. Should this be 1% , then I had bet about 5000 units. I started with a bankroll of 100 euros.

The zero
Many players hate the zero. The zero is the bad figure of the roulette. This is not true. The HE is the bad guy. Every number included the zero have the same HE. The  odd 0-12-13-19-1-32-14-26-36-17-24-5 has the same HE as a dozen or a column. For these odds the HE is 2.7%. The HE for every number is 2.7%.
The table layout has 157 different chances. Only the ECs have a HE of 1.35%.
From this point of view the zero gives a big advantage and is not the bad guy.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 06, 2015, 12:39:52 PM
Long run money management.

Roulette gaming for pleasure can be a hobby. A hobby may cost some money. Suppose you can afford 300 euro a month.You have the intension to visit the casino once in a week. One euro is one unit or credit. With a good strategy , patience and discipline it should be possible to make every session a profit of 25 credits.
At the end of the month your balance is 400 euro and after 3 month 1200 euro.
 
Now you decide to increase your odds and double the input. Under the same circumstances it should be possible to win every session 50 euros. Your balance increases every month with 500 euros. After a half year your gaming capital  amounts 2700  euro.
At this moment you have a lot of experience and skill. Be very careful and do not become too greedy. Be not disappointed after a bad session.

Limit the risk of every session.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 07, 2015, 10:47:46 AM
Is it possible to win 25 units with a strategy?
Yesterday I visited my casino for a short  tea lounge session.
It was not very busy. Two tables were active. Place enough  and I could take two terminals. Special for the forum I have noted the inputs and the payouts   and here is the result.

(http://i61.tinypic.com/2j8y03.gif)

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 08, 2015, 01:46:38 PM
Perhaps you are curious how the bets were divided on the table layout.

I shall explain the most bets.

Bet 2 or 4 or 8 on the ECs.
Bet 2 or  6 or 9 0n the dozen or the columns.
Bet 8  6 credits on low or high and 2 on the DS  19/24 or DS 13/18.
Bet 10  5 credits on two dozens or two columns.
bet 20  12 credits on low or high and 6 credits on dozen 3 or 1.
Bet 20  12 credits on low or high end 2 credits on 2 DSs.
bet 30  18 credits on low or high and 6 credits on  two DSs.
Bet 41 double bet 20 and one credit zero.
A bet after a double trigger is more complicated and much more difficult to explain. For example the bet two credits on DS 1/6 ,two credits on corner 1/11  and 6 credits on high.
This number of betting patrons is not completed.
All these patrons are part of my strategy. You need a lot of experience to use all these patrons
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 10, 2015, 10:31:06 AM
(http://i57.tinypic.com/3094g8x.gif)

(http://i57.tinypic.com/2hgeqo9.gif)

The session yesterday afternoon was very successfull. As usual I played on two terminals.
The permanence of the input shos mostly the bets 10 20 30 40.  That are odds of the strategy of the dices.
the profit percentage is 20%. In consequence of the no hits and the zero the profit will decrease. On both tables I started with 100 credits.

With these reports of these sessions I try to convinch you that successfull roulette gaming is possble.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 20, 2015, 10:09:54 AM
Via my e mail rouletteplayersclub@hotmail.nl I received some requests for an explanation of the game of the dices. In some steps I will comply  to these requests.
At the first place you should understand the random sequence of a dice. With an excel program we can analyze the sequence and learn the statistic features. The features of a short  and large sample are not the same. A player plays always a short session. That is the reason I shall make an analyze of a 200 spins sample
A strategy uses statistic signals or triggers. These triggers are for all the random sequences in general the same.
What do we want to know about the sequence?
1. How many times the separate sites of the dice fall.
2. How many spins a site does not fall.
3. The largest deviation between the permanence %%
4. How many times repeats a site 1x, 2x, 3x, 4x or more.
The first analyze concerns the research of the numbers of the different sites of the dices has fallen. The statistic expectation is once on six spins. For my sample of 200 spins it amounts 33 or 16,2%.

(http://i58.tinypic.com/r29ox5.gif)

Particular the anomalies of the percentages of small sample can be large. The statistic feature will drive the anomalies to the statistic expectation.
For a better impression this is a table of 10 200 spins samples. The smallest anomaly  amounts 8 number and the largest anomaly amounts 11

(http://i60.tinypic.com/mkd72d.gif)


Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 23, 2015, 03:42:51 PM



The results of a 60 spins sample is nearly the same. The expected number of the outcome of the sides amounts 10 and the percentage 15,5%. See the diagram



(http://i61.tinypic.com/4lka35.gif)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 23, 2015, 03:51:27 PM
In this diagram I show the outcomes of all the sides and the average. There where a line crosses the average line the outcome has the expected value .The values on the left side are too high and on the right side too low. An anomaly of more than three outcomes are very interested.
(http://i60.tinypic.com/v7ayox.gif)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 25, 2015, 02:22:04 PM
The diagrams are made of one sample.
This is not enough to make conclusions. One click key F9 and the program computes a new sample. My conclusions are based on the study of a lot of samples. The program is available for members, who want to do some practice
.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 27, 2015, 01:36:33 PM
What is the relation of the analyze of the random sequence of the dices and the roulette?
Every six numbers has the value of one side of the dice. The table layout makes it possible to create more than one virtual dice.

 The first and most simple dice is DS 1/6 has the value 1, the DS 7/12 has the value  2, the DS 13/18 has the value 3 etc.


The second dice is a combination of two streets such as S7/9 and S19/21.

The third dice is a combination of six numbers in the columns. For example the numbers1-4-7-10-13-16 has the value 1 and the numbers 2-5-8-1-14-17 the value 2 etc.

Wagers.
1 A side of a dice has not fallen more than 15 spins.
2 Not one side of the dice has repeated in 15 spins.
3The number of outcomes of a side has a large anomaly with the statistic expectation.
4 A side has repeated twice or more.

The zero is neglisible for the short run sessions of the player
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 02, 2015, 01:48:37 PM
Betting examples.Wager 1. The DS 13/18 is not fallen in 15 spins , bet 1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-3-3 on 13/18.Wager 2. Bet 1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-3-3 on the last DS.Wager 3. Bet flat one unit on the DS with an anomaly of 4  with a respect to the average.Wager 4. Bet 5 or 10 or 20 or 30 or 50 on the other 5 DS. Split the bet in 3units on low or high and the other 2 on the ds. Example 30 units on High and 10 units on DS 7/12 and DS13/18.This can be done in special cases also with a bet on the Streets. Example. 5 units on S 1/3, 5 units on S 7/9, 10 units DS 13/18 and 30 units on High. The trigger is 5-12-4. The advanced players use also more than one trigger but then the bets are more complex.The bets with High or Low have a HE of about 2.0 and the HE for all the other bets is 2.7
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 14, 2015, 03:41:37 PM
I recieved the question, how can i program the double zero in een excel program.
Here an example. The formulars are in the dutch language.

(http://i60.tinypic.com/2z3q3y1.png)


Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 15, 2015, 12:42:46 PM
The third random sequence can be used for all systems,except wagering on the double zero. In that case use the formular RNDbetween 0 and 37. The double zero is number 37. 37 has not a color and is no part of high and the dozens and columns.
I have the idea , there are a very few programmers of the double zero roulette in excel.I have never found excel programs on internet. Why??
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 21, 2015, 11:38:58 AM
Looking at the history board, I see often a streak like these:
3-10-32-13-5-4-23-36-15-17-0-14-14-2-34.
The last number is 3.
My next bet is dozen 1 and  3  with one unit.
After  a loss I shall bet 3 units on dozen 1 and 2.
The win after a hit is one unit.
Who sees the triggers?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: mogul397 on March 21, 2015, 05:38:32 PM
I don't.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 21, 2015, 08:25:58 PM
Soon I shall explain this bet.It is a special variant of my SSB system.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: mogul397 on March 21, 2015, 11:31:57 PM
I don't understand SSB.  Are you sitting on something that
actually works?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 22, 2015, 09:33:28 AM
Mogul look for my topic"My vieuw on the Martingale principle".

The excel sheet is free to order. Send a e mail to rouletteplayersclub@hotmail.nl.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: mogul397 on March 22, 2015, 07:44:02 PM
So bblesteen, in reply 77 you give a list of number and then
talk about how you would accurately give the next result.

But you never explain.

Can you explain what it will be?  And answer "what ARE
the triggers?"  for those who do not see them or know what
they are?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 25, 2015, 02:56:00 PM
Explanation of my bets
The history board showed the number streak. The bets are a double dozen bet. The first thing to do is convert the number streak in a dozen streak.
 3-10-32-13- 5- 4-23-36- 5-17- 0-14-24- 2-34
 1-  1-  3 – 2-  1 - 1 – 2 -3-  1-  2 -0- 2 – 2 – 1-  3
An event of 4 random dozens has an statistic expectation of once on 81 spins, an event of 8 random dozens once on 81x 81 spins. The SSB principle has a betting scheme 1-3-9-27. Suppose the next two spins is dozen 2 and  dozen 3.The random row is then.
3-2-1-1-3-2-1-1-2-3-1-2-0-2-1-3. What has happened?
The streak 3-2-1-1 has repeated. The chance that this happens is very small. So my next bet is not dozen 2 and eventuality the next second bet is not dozen 3.
The dozen you do not want to bet is always 4 numbers back.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on March 25, 2015, 08:40:29 PM
If we have

3-2-1-1-3-2-1-1-2-3-1-2-0-2-1-3
(btw in your example the last dozens are on the left which is confusing!)
Anyway if we have this sequence and want to avoid repetition then we must exclude the dozen 1, right?
I'm confused
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 30, 2015, 01:37:42 PM
The last number of the streak is the number three on the left side. The triggers are the number  5 and 6ix from the left side. In this example the figures 3 and 2
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 30, 2015, 01:38:50 PM
This week  I hope to celebrate my 80 birthday. Till now I have shared my experience and knowledge with much pleasure on the forum.

If you appreciate my contribution , I hope to do it a few years more.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on March 30, 2015, 02:58:27 PM
Happy birthday dear Dbbelsteen!!!!
We admire your passion for the game.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on March 30, 2015, 09:31:08 PM
Happy Birthday! 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 31, 2015, 01:23:48 PM
Thanks for all the good wishes

Regards from Zandvoort with a springstorm

An impression from my appartment.

(http://i58.tinypic.com/2gtd8bt.png)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on April 01, 2015, 11:28:45 PM
Great view!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: BlueAngel on April 15, 2015, 08:55:07 PM
Quote
Regards from Zandvoort with a springstorm


Happy birthday!
I've been at Utrecht,Amsterdam and Noordwjik,this is about 60 kilometers North of Amsterdam,are you living near Noordwjik?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on April 17, 2015, 08:45:44 AM
Zandvoort is a relative small village at the coast 30 km north of Noordwijk.
38 Years ago the first legal casino of holland was setled here.

If you are in the region you are welcome and we can visit my home casino.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: BlueAngel on April 18, 2015, 06:48:54 PM
I'd love to,I have pleasant memories from my last trip to Holland.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Paulnewman on April 18, 2015, 08:52:07 PM
I'd love to,I have pleasant memories from my last trip to Holland.


About Roulette or girls? :-)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: BlueAngel on April 18, 2015, 09:15:07 PM
Both;-)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on April 19, 2015, 03:06:27 PM
This is great dobbel!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on April 19, 2015, 08:34:15 PM
I think, some peaple do not understand what Kav means.
I had posted a picture of the magic square.You can find that picture in this New thread (http://rouletteforum.roulette30.com/index.php/topic,268.0.html).
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on April 20, 2015, 01:22:28 PM
Scepticus I answer you here on the blog. Reverse thinking is not the place to discus HGs.

At the first place on the Multi Roulette  it is not necessary to wait for 50 spins. One touch on the touchscreen and you become the stats of the last 50 numbers.
Every session of my example gives guaranteed a profit. The number of spins for a positive result is unpredictable. Only a test on the computer can proof this principle. The principle is not suitable for the real roulette. It is just theory. 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on April 20, 2015, 08:15:38 PM
Hi Dobbelsteen
I bet in the UK - usually in a Grosvenor casino. On the terminals there are 2 live wheels and 2 airwheels. in no case are we given the last 50 winning numbers.The last 5 on Airwheels .On livewheels we have 5 on the terminals but  15 or 16 on the numbers board on the actual live wheels. So you are fortunate to have the last 50 recorded  numbers.
Interesting though it is, what is the point of the  magic square if we cannot use it in our actual betting ? 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: BlueAngel on April 20, 2015, 10:00:34 PM
Hi Dobbelsteen
I bet in the UK - usually in a Grosvenor casino. On the terminals there are 2 live wheels and 2 airwheels. in no case are we given the last 50 winning numbers.The last 5 on Airwheels .On livewheels we have 5 on the terminals but  15 or 16 on the numbers board on the actual live wheels. So you are fortunate to have the last 50 recorded  numbers.
Interesting though it is, what is the point of the  magic square if we cannot use it in our actual betting ?
And who says we can't?!
There are soooooo many ways to analyze and determine a system based on the square which makes the whole process totally OVERWHELMING!
The point is to find THE ONE out of the myriads of ways...!
If and when you find it,you should know about it because the results are not ordinary AT ALL...!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on April 21, 2015, 02:23:13 AM
The point  I am making, Blue Angel, is that there are countless ways of betting if you let your imagination run riot . The question you have to answer is " can we profitably use it in roulette ? ". Otherwise it is just " noise "- a distraction however pleasant it may be. Yes, the magic square is interesting but it remains just that unless we can " profitably " use it  in our actual betting. Theory is one thing reality is quite another.I am open to persuasion that it can do so but, frankly , I doubt it.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on April 24, 2015, 12:58:58 PM
The betting ladders are very important.Most experience players will warn you for the Martingale wager.
Now I have programmed my SSB system with a decrease ladder.
The next bet after a loss is not double the last bet, but one unit less.
You can not with one unit. I started the system with 5 units
The ladder is 5-9-17-33-65-129-257-506-etc.
The advantage is that the risk is also decreasing

(http://i57.tinypic.com/658uit.png)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on April 24, 2015, 03:08:37 PM
Nicely done Dobbel but would anyone really bet 506 chips after losing 515 ?  Somehow I think that   few people would.  And if that lost ? In my opinion a long progression strategy is to be avoided .But we all have our own thoughts where gambling is concerned .There would be no gambling if we all thought the same .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on April 27, 2015, 12:20:01 PM
The roulette fund
Some years ago I was very active on the Dutch forum Casinocity. The number of roulette players was very few.Most members were poker players. The poker players had no affinity with the roulette and I as a roulette expert was not respected.
In spite of this fact I had convinced  some members of my successful strategies. In the meantime Holland Casino had installed the new Multi Roulette. Computer terminals connect with real tables. The minimum bet was increased to 1 euro. This made it possible to gamble with a small bankroll.
I claimed the possibility to make profit with my strategy.
I started a roulette fund with a start bankroll of 100 euro. As fund holder I deposited  500 euro and 10 participants the other 500 euro.
On average I played 3 sessions a week and reported on internet. Participants could accompany me to the casino.
Gambling with money of the fund I had to be more carefully.
Not every session was positive but the balance increased
The goal was to double the start capital. That was reached within 3 month.
Google roulettefonds dobbelsteen. 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on April 30, 2015, 01:21:53 PM
On this forum I share my experience of the roulette game. I have studied the game for years.
 I make a big difference between roulette systems and a roulette strategy.
 System and strategy are not synonym. A system has an algorithm. A strategy is based on experimental rules.

Systems and strategies can only fair judged, when all circumstances are well-known.
Such circumstances are :
real, mechanical or RNG  roulette
American, European or France roulette
real or live roulette with real money or fun mode
short or long run events
RNG  or real permanencies.

In many description of systems and methods are one or more of these absent.

In general my theory and programs are based on the FR.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on April 30, 2015, 07:27:26 PM
Hi dobbel,

We certainly appreciate the knowledge you share.
If you allow me a suggestion I think it would be very helpful for our members to write as good as possible all your main concepts in a comprehensive article. It should explain your main ideas clearly and be easy to read and understand.

I say this because your ideas are given a bit at a time and it may be difficult for our members to see the whole picture of your approach.

Best regards,
Kav
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 03, 2015, 08:47:46 AM
Kav I fully agree with you. A comprehension paper of my ideas should be very useful. I am not  a writer and my knowledge of the English language is too poor to write a book.

I have gathered all my single papers and my excel programs on a CDR and usb sticks. For the interested roulette player everything is free available.

My approach of the roulette game is total different from what you can find on internet or in roulette books.
By study and practice, I have learned the features of the roulette and developed my short run theory. I am convinced that my strategy based on these theory the only  way is to beat the roulette not the HE.

If you agree and understand my theory, you are more capable to write a comprehension paper for the home page. There is no copy right.

Here in Holland I organize workshops with a visit to the casino for small groups. In a single case I coach  people in the casino or on internet.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 06, 2015, 12:11:57 PM
The second roulette fund was particular started for an internet casino.
 An internet casino did offer me a bonus of 100 euro with a deposit of 100 euro.
You have bet 60x the bonus to play the bonus free. I found 4 participants . The deposit of each participant was 25 euro.
With a screen share program the participants could watch the play sessions. I played the European RNG roulette. I did not take a large risk and per session on average the total bet amounted 1000 euro. Within a fortnight had gambled my bonus free and could pay the participants their deposit back with a 100% profit.

Be very careful on internet. Wager with real money is very dangerous. The bonus is attractable, but recognize the HE it is nearly impossible to play the bonus free.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on May 06, 2015, 04:01:48 PM
The second roulette fund was particular started for an internet casino.
 An internet casino did offer me a bonus of 100 euro with a deposit of 100 euro.
You have bet 60x the bonus to play the bonus free. I found 4 participants . The deposit of each participant was 25 euro.
With a screen share program the participants could watch the play sessions. I played the European RNG roulette. I did not take a large risk and per session on average the total bet amounted 1000 euro. Within a fortnight had gambled my bonus free and could pay the participants their deposit back with a 100% profit.

Be very careful on internet. Wager with real money is very dangerous. The bonus is attractable, but recognize the HE it is nearly impossible to play the bonus free.
Hi dobbel,
Looking for participants doesn't mean you are not certain of your system and you want to mitigate the risk?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 06, 2015, 04:22:24 PM
I shall never start a new roulette fund. The risk for me is too large and the interest of the participants too less . The participants were members of a Dutch forum. They had confidence in my strategy. The internet fund was also a  live demonstration of my strategy. Everybody not alone the participants could enjoy the demonstrations
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on May 06, 2015, 04:27:26 PM
I shall never start a new roulette fund. The risk for me is too large and the interest of the participants too less . The participants were members of a Dutch forum. They had confidence in my strategy. The internet fund was also a  live demonstration of my strategy. Everybody not alone the participants could enjoy the demonstrations
This is great! Congrats.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 07, 2015, 02:55:47 PM
(http://i60.tinypic.com/t8b4g6.png)

For this game I had developed an exel sheet to keep the record of the game.

With Dutch participants we played a try-out on internet in the fun mode
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ahraneas on May 07, 2015, 07:25:52 PM
Hello Dobbelsteen,

We frequently have met, and we know eachother in real life. I think we must discuss the writing of a book concerning the roulette strategy.

You do know i have money at my disposal, we should talk about the whole thing and plan in some outside-casino meetings.

I will contact you as soon as possible.

I actually am bad with numbers, but i am good with languages. This runs through our family. My uncle is a translater and writer, and my dad is an English teacher.

I hope to meet you soon! You know how to reach me (Skype for example).

Kind regards,

Rikkert!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 10, 2015, 04:36:51 PM
On the forum I wrote the my 22 bet with a HE of 1,5 is superior the Kav 20 bet with a HE 0f 2,7 Is this a riality for a player. The answer is no. The result of both bets are predictable for a short run sample.Every system has the expection  of about 50% on a loe or a profit.On a short run sample the influence of the zero is negligible . Only for a long run sample the 22 bet has a much better expectation.

Rikkert see your e-mail.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: BlueAngel on May 10, 2015, 06:19:49 PM
(http://i60.tinypic.com/t8b4g6.png)

For this game I had developed an exel sheet to keep the record of the game.

With Dutch participants we played a try-out on internet in the fun mode


Wow,that's interesting challenge!
I bet you Dobbelsteen will win a unit and then quit,right?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 11, 2015, 09:16:19 AM
The roulette is only a tool to play the Dobbelsteen roulette game, The goeal is not to beat the roulette but to beat the other participants.
A participant can not withdraw his buy-inn and collect a profit.
The game ended after a fixed arranged number of spins
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 11, 2015, 12:52:48 PM
(http://i58.tinypic.com/1z4d40m.png)

This is the online casino I do my research.Soon I will do some demonstrations of systems and stategies. Are you interested?

This is an example of asample I just played of the 22 number bet

(http://i57.tinypic.com/apjo83.png)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on May 11, 2015, 03:37:20 PM
Yes Dobbel, some of us zijn zeer geïnteresseerd!

Thank you
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 11, 2015, 03:56:46 PM
Quests of this site live all over the world.The stats shows that most members are Europeans. What is the most suitable time ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on May 11, 2015, 04:22:39 PM
What you mean is to play simultaneously or something?
To log in at the same time? I am from Croatia. Any time suits me 0-24.
I have 2 accounts on WH, but am not playing much.

You will give us instructions?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on May 11, 2015, 05:05:11 PM
But, have you read on WH:

TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF USE OF THE WEBSITE
11.5.1   
"fraudulent practice" means any fraudulent activity engaged in by You or by any person acting on Your behalf or in collusion with You, and shall include, without limitation:
...
(c) the collusion by You with others in order to gain an unfair advantage...

This means that they can close account if we play as a group...
If I get it right what you're proposing !?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 11, 2015, 07:55:35 PM
I think I shall not cross the conditions of WH. I login on the WH site and I play the FR in the practice mode.
Participants are only observers of my computer while Ian playing. A strategy is not an unfair advantage.

On the forum I anounce when I play and how you can share my computer. I use the free MIKOGO software.
It is not necessary to download the software for enjoying
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on May 11, 2015, 08:10:10 PM
Great!
I am ready...
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 12, 2015, 07:41:38 AM
After the football match I shall start this evening at about 22.45 a demonstration of my strategy on internet.
All interested members are invited.
 The number of participants are limited. Sign in with your forum name. If you are delayed, you can also sign in during the session.
(http://i61.tinypic.com/23w8oc6.png)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 12, 2015, 08:17:07 PM
when you want to watch the demonstration go to; go.mikogo.com

The key for login is:sessie 957 872 890

I am preparing my computer
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on May 12, 2015, 09:35:35 PM
Thank you Jaap,

it was very interesting demo.
First half I understood, the rest partially, I mean Dozens and Columns and when to put on High...

Sorry that people don't seem interested, but people are strange...
I can contact you on PM also?


Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 13, 2015, 10:03:06 AM
I did the demo with pleasure. For special questions you can e-mail me rouletteplayersclub@hotmail.nl.

This first demonstration was a try-out. I had expected more interested members.
I started with a Kavouras betting session. The result was a disaster. As a system the KB has no advantages with respect to other systems. The strategies of the ECs are also suitable for the KB. The weakness of the KB is to convert  the number row into a random sequence for the KV .
The 22 number bet and the SSB session were more successful and compensated the loss of the KB session
With my overall strategy I wagered on all the other chances. For the inexperience watcher my bettings are chaotic. Three kind of bettings are very confusing for the participants.
The final result of the 45 minutes demo was a profit of about 100 units.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: mogul397 on May 14, 2015, 02:44:45 AM
I did the demo with pleasure. For special questions you can e-mail me rouletteplayersclub@hotmail.nl.

This first demonstration was a try-out. I had expected more interested members.
I started with a Kavouras betting session. The result was a disaster. As a system the KB has no advantages with respect to other systems. The strategies of the ECs are also suitable for the KB. The weakness of the KB is to convert  the number row into a random sequence for the KV .
The 22 number bet and the SSB session were more successful and compensated the loss of the KB session
With my overall strategy I wagered on all the other chances. For the inexperience watcher my bettings are chaotic. Three kind of bettings are very confusing for the participants.
The final result of the 45 minutes demo was a profit of about 100 units.

I don't understand.  Can you explain what you are doing?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 14, 2015, 07:47:36 AM
Mogull you can find on the forum descriptions of many systems.At this moment the Kavouras betting get a lot of attenention. I descriped the 22 number bet. On an internet casino I play Frence roulette with a RNG.
I play different strategies . All members have the oppertunity to watch me,

The HE is the most important criterion to Judge a system for the FR.
I have tought the manner how to compute this HE.
Here an examination instruction.

Compute the HE for the next bet.
6 units on High; 6 units on Red end one unit on 0123
A good answer and you are succeeded for this examination.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: mogul397 on May 15, 2015, 01:08:30 AM
Mogull you can find on the forum descriptions of many systems.At this moment the Kavouras betting get a lot of attenention. I descriped the 22 number bet. On an internet casino I play Frence roulette with a RNG.
I play different strategies . All members have the oppertunity to watch me,

The HE is the most important criterion to Judge a system for the FR.
I have tought the manner how to compute this HE.
Here an examination instruction.

Compute the HE for the next bet.
6 units on High; 6 units on Red end one unit on 0123
A good answer and you are succeeded for this examination.

Thanks. I thought you were working on and demonstrating a particular
method. I guess I look for some positive outcome that would lead me
to investigate further.

Maybe it is your English. I still don't understand your last statement.
It seems like the HE would always be the same. Then you are making
3 bets for some reason. And not sure who or what "A good answer and you are succeeded for this examination." refers to. Just trying to follow the threads.

Thanks again for acknowledging me.  I enjoy the new ideas.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 15, 2015, 08:25:32 AM
Opponents of the system players use always the HE  to prove systems does not work. On the long we all are losers. Only AP players have the key to beat the roulette.
Read the myth of the HE on the homepage.
The HE and also the single zero have a negligible influence on the results of small sessions.

The challenge to compute the HE for that particular bet is more a joke than riality.
I do not expext an answer.

My English is not perfect. I left the school 65 years ago. I write Dutch with English words.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 17, 2015, 07:51:05 PM
Tomorrow evening about 22.00  I will play another demonstrationon WH internet casino.
I use the triggers of the hisory board.
I play SSB for the ECs, the dozens and collumns.
For the Streets and the double strees I play the game of the dices.
Sometimes there are hotspots on the table and I bet corners or splits.
Because I play more than one strategy, the bets seem to be chaotic.


Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 18, 2015, 09:03:29 AM
Here an info for my demonstration of strategies.
The login procedure is very simple.
I hope to meet you this evening on internet.
Do you have special wishes or questions , let me know.

(http://i58.tinypic.com/vz7ayo.png)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on May 18, 2015, 09:43:51 AM
"See" you at 22.00!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: BlueAngel on May 18, 2015, 09:53:16 AM
"See" you at 22.00!


22:00 dutch time zone?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on May 18, 2015, 11:50:29 AM
Yes, it is CEST (Central European Summer Time).
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: BlueAngel on May 18, 2015, 12:29:36 PM

@ Dobbelsteen,How to log in to your PC?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 18, 2015, 01:44:11 PM
BA at 21.45 w.e.t I shall start the screen share program.
You can login on the go.mikogo.com site. It is not necessary to download the program.
I give the inlog key number.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: BlueAngel on May 18, 2015, 04:48:29 PM
Yes,send me a message with the inlog key number.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: BlueAngel on May 18, 2015, 06:36:29 PM
I didn't received the inlog key number
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on May 18, 2015, 07:13:56 PM
I didn't received the inlog key number


He will post it here at 21.45
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 18, 2015, 08:00:54 PM
I have just start my computer
The inlog key number is   093 456 999Go to : go.mikogo.com and follow the instrution
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on May 18, 2015, 10:23:20 PM
Thank you, Dobbelsteen!!!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 19, 2015, 12:26:43 AM
I am not satisfied with this demo.
In the first part I made a little profit.
Playing with 10credit chips it is more difficult to beat the RNG.
This was a very hard session.
After you all had left the session, I have won back my loss. I finished the session with a small profit
 (http://i60.tinypic.com/65u8no.jpg)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: mogul397 on May 19, 2015, 01:09:05 AM
Tomorrow evening about 22.00  I will play another demonstrationon WH internet casino.
I use the triggers of the hisory board.
I play SSB for the ECs, the dozens and collumns.
For the Streets and the double strees I play the game of the dices.
Sometimes there are hotspots on the table and I bet corners or splits.
Because I play more than one strategy, the bets seem to be chaotic.
What is ""SSB"?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: mogul397 on May 19, 2015, 01:14:13 AM
Trying to figure out what time this is.  The key

093 456 999 doesn't work now. It's 9:13 EST.
Incorrect ID
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 19, 2015, 09:44:58 AM
Mogul sorry for you, you missed the demo.Log in for the first time can be a little difficult.
Download MIKOGO is not nessesary. You have to go to"go.mikogo.com"and there yoy can find the fill in instructions. 093 456 999 was the inlog key number. Every session becomes e new key.

On the forum we have members and quest from all over the world. The time I publish is always w.e.t.

The demo was not a great success. The win and loss sessions changed a lot of times.

Playing strategies require very much experience. In seconds you must recognize the triggers and know the belonging bet patrons
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 19, 2015, 01:02:50 PM
I shal publish an explanation ofthe different odds for the demo.
This is the first one for SSB for the ECs.

(http://i57.tinypic.com/2mfxjtk.jpg)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: mogul397 on May 20, 2015, 01:17:44 AM
Mogul sorry for you, you missed the demo.Log in for the first time can be a little difficult.
Download MIKOGO is not nessesary. You have to go to"go.mikogo.com"and there yoy can find the fill in instructions. 093 456 999 was the inlog key number. Every session becomes e new key.

On the forum we have members and quest from all over the world. The time I publish is always w.e.t.

The demo was not a great success. The win and loss sessions changed a lot of times.

Playing strategies require very much experience. In seconds you must recognize the triggers and know the belonging bet patrons

Well first, I did put that number in. It said invalid.

Second.  I wasn't sure about the actual time.  It was correct here.
I am eastern Mass USA.

Third, why or where is any description of what you intend to do? If you do
a demo, isn't there supposed to be some explanation or template of what
the method is?

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 20, 2015, 11:18:17 AM
Mogul here an example of the login site
(http://i59.tinypic.com/ykpkn.png)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 20, 2015, 02:16:10 PM
Here the demo info for dozens and columns.

(http://i62.tinypic.com/r2fp.png)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 20, 2015, 02:37:38 PM
The common triggers for the ECs are a long consecuted sequence of an EC or an R-B-R-B-R-B- R sequence.
Triggers for dozens and columns are 4 consecutive dozens or columns, a dozen or column has not appear for at least 12 spins.
These triggersare in consequence of the unbalance of the random sequence.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 20, 2015, 07:32:14 PM
The 37 or 38 numbers of the roulette make it possible to design infinite roulette systems.
The layout of the wheel or the table has no influence on the qyality of the systems.
All over the world through centuries there are peaple looking for the winningsystem or HG.
System designers can you find on all roulettesites.
You must ask yourself what is a good design?
All systems have common features.
1 Systems have about 50% chance on a profit or loss for short run samples.
2 All systems will lose HE x total input on the long run.
3 Short run samples  for the different chances are not similar.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on May 20, 2015, 07:45:19 PM
I can see the logic in your bets.
Good work so far.

Thank you Dobbel !
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 21, 2015, 10:23:37 AM
Now I will show you some of the betting patrons for the game of the dices.
I use the WH roulette. Properly the hystory board is too small.
Triggers for the dices are arepeater or a long row witwithout a particular dice
The important dice are the double Streets. I use more than one dice.
Here some examples.
I have some problems with the upload program.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 21, 2015, 10:33:51 AM
(http://i61.tinypic.com/kevwnl.png)
(http://i57.tinypic.com/121bodl.png)
(http://i59.tinypic.com/eppull.png)
(http://i62.tinypic.com/20ivuzd.png)
(http://i59.tinypic.com/sgmkoh.png)
(http://i59.tinypic.com/xleb6s.png)

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on May 21, 2015, 08:16:16 PM
Just a quick FYI...

Gambling in the free RNG mode is not the same as gambling in real mode.

As with many free modes, the RNG is set to make you win, regardless of how you bet.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 22, 2015, 08:40:59 AM
If the RNG can be manipulated to win in the free mode, then it is also possible in the real mode.
 I Always warn  for on internet for real money
I can show you how to win and how to lose in the free mode.
The goal of the demo is not to show how you can neat the roulette , but how you can play a strategy!!!!!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 31, 2015, 02:54:09 PM
Monday 1 juni at about 22.00  w,e.t. I will show you my strategy on internet.
Here I shall publish the ID-key for sharing my screen.
If you prefer a demo of a system  like SSB for EC and Dozen , The Kav bet , the 22 number bet or the 36 rule , let me know.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 01, 2015, 01:12:49 PM
This evening I will start the demonstration with a short PowerPoint presentation of the most used strategies and betting  patrons.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on June 01, 2015, 04:08:18 PM
Not meant as a criticism, Dobbelsteen, but when you say "patrons " do you mean "patterns " ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 01, 2015, 07:49:44 PM
yes you are right!

I have just started my computer and the sharing program.

To login you need the ID key 567 755 482

go to: go.mikogo.com
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 01, 2015, 11:20:42 PM
I just finished the session. It was very difficult to beat the software. The software surprised me with unbelieveble events . 14 red numbers while I was playing black. I could not confuse the tracking software. I started and finished with about 3100 credits.
 I thank the participants for their visit.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on June 04, 2015, 11:47:46 AM
Wow nice thread!  Thanks for showing us your apartment and betting system!  I like your ideas and I have had a thought about a betting system that is kind of like yours but I have never worked on it.  Thanks for making this thread!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 05, 2015, 08:48:29 AM
Someone called me digital moron, but who program systems on his 80 age?

I understand that not every one is familar with excel sheets. The program is not so important , the results (output) is,
It is possible to become very quick the results of small and large samples. From one sample you cannot draw  conclusions.
I am develloping a new method to show how systems works in stead of live demonstrations.
Many members all over the world has demand my SSB system. I am visilyzing the program to make the system more understandable.
Next week I will do a try-out on internet.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on June 06, 2015, 05:36:43 AM
Thanks!  Looking forward to seeing it! : D

Btw, programming Excel sheets like you do is a sign of high intelligence, imo. ; )
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 06, 2015, 07:30:19 AM
The dia presentation is nearly ready. For the try-out I have chosen for my famous SSB for ECs.
The strong feature of SSB is that every spin has a trigger.
I shall explain the bets spin by spin.
The excel program is very suitable to show many different samples and do more research. I advise you to get the program. On demand I send it by email.
 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on June 06, 2015, 01:38:28 PM
Have you thought to video your sessions?  I use freeware called "Icecream Screen Recorder".  This would let us watch later if we are sleeping or working?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 06, 2015, 01:55:09 PM
A very long time ago I have used a screen record program for making a demo CD rom.

My opponents argue
 that the demo can be manipulated. A successful video can be selected from a serie videos. This is the reason I offer live demos.

I can show my CD also on the internet. My partner did the voice over, while I was playing.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on June 06, 2015, 02:15:08 PM
Nobody here would question your integrity and I think MANY would benefit because your system would become easier to follow.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: jerome26b on June 07, 2015, 08:29:54 AM
hello Dobbelsteen,  i tried to send you a pm but your mailbox is full,

jerome.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 07, 2015, 11:55:32 AM
Jerome I do not understand  that my mailbox is full.
If you are interested in my SSB excel program before my internet explanation , you can write me an email to  rouletteplayersclub@hotmail.nl .
I have the intention to publish the dia presentation on Tuesday evening.
For the European participants I can do the presentation also in daytime.
If there is interest let me know.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 08, 2015, 08:43:36 AM
The concept demo of the explanation of the SSB system is ready.
Tomorrow I will  do a public presentation.
If you are not busy and can do a preview after a half hour.
Let me know.
The demo contents a few small mistakes. Some mistakes can not edit.
I appreciate remarks to improve further demos of other systems or strategies.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on June 08, 2015, 09:25:17 AM
Ready!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 08, 2015, 09:39:22 AM
I will start the preview.

You can join  . Goto; go.mikogo.com : the ID-key is 059 538 941

See you on the screen.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on June 08, 2015, 10:33:01 AM
Thank you Dobbel,

I understand SSB on EC.
This was lucky session.

Do you often lose 1023 units?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 08, 2015, 01:07:01 PM
The chance SSB bust, is very small. The most awful sample was a 9 step double up with 2 zeros.
On the FR the zero is an advantage for the player.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on June 08, 2015, 02:00:52 PM
I just tried to play against last 12 (I thought that it is safer to go more in the past, but still play 10 times max), and almost went down - it was hit at 10th (and last for me) spin.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on June 08, 2015, 03:28:00 PM
I tried again as you play SSB and this time went down very quick.
First I was saved at 128, and 10 minutes later on 512 lost.
So -1.023!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Jesper on June 08, 2015, 06:43:49 PM
We win or lose! Do not pay, for any "advice"
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on June 08, 2015, 06:54:19 PM
I am not clear what you mean jesper.
Do you mean that Dobbelsteen charges for his " advice "  ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on June 09, 2015, 07:09:50 AM
No, he is doing presentations for free, out of good will and friendship!
I don't doubt it.

Only Martingale is always charging for naivety!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 09, 2015, 08:59:51 AM
I never claimed The SSB system is a HG. We all know the danger of a negative progression.
The  basic thought is, the chance that  a random sequence of 10 spins is very small. This is comparable with a 20 Red streak. The advantage is , you never have to wait for a 10 red sequence.
On  the real roulette table I use SSB for the ECs as well the dozens with several safety measures. I use also my  skill.
The best  roulette method is the combination of different systems and betting patterns with a strategy.

I will start the explanation demo at about 22.00 hour. The demo takes about 35 minutes. After that I can demo a live session. In the live demo I shall use more than one strategy.

Internet communication is a valid completion to share each others experience and knowledge. The forum is the place to meet interested peaple and discus items.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Jesper on June 09, 2015, 10:45:58 AM
I am not clear what you mean jesper.
Do you mean that Dobbelsteen charges for his " advice "  ?

No I do not mean he does.  There are such a cases on many fora.  And of course many who like to share.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on June 09, 2015, 02:11:05 PM

I only think that playing against last 10 is not the same as they were 10 reds.
Those 10 are not symmetric and don't follow some other common rules!

I think we will find much more repeaters of 10 then 20 reds. That is why I busted so quickly
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on June 09, 2015, 04:59:52 PM
I have been reading Dobbelsteen's posts for a few years now and know that his advice  is free. Jester's post about not paying for advice  was in Dobbelsteen's Blog with no reference to any prior post so I did not understand it and wondered if he was implying that Dobbel was charging for advice.
Dobbels' approach , like mine , is mathematical  so we  both favour , and advocate -that way at looking at the problem. Different strokes for different folks.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 09, 2015, 07:51:19 PM
I have started my computers and you can join my screen. I begin the dem  at about 22.00.I will end this meting with a short live demonstration.
I wish you much pleasure.

goto: go.mikogo.com ; the ID-key is 169 954 968
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on June 09, 2015, 09:01:21 PM
No, thank you, I understand the method, I'll join you next time for other method.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on June 12, 2015, 04:39:24 AM
Sorry I missed it.  I would watch a video of it though...
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on June 18, 2015, 10:40:34 AM
An event of 4 random dozens has an statistic expectation of once on 81 spins, an event of 8 random dozens once on 81x 81 spins. The SSB principle has a betting scheme 1-3-9-27.

Dobble, what if we go back to an event of 10 random dozens with a progression of 1-3-9-27-81?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 18, 2015, 07:08:14 PM
The statistic expectation of a 10 random dozen sequence is 2^10=59049
I shall make a SSB for the dozens and prepare a PowerPoint presentation.
It is a pity there are a very few really interested members and guest for a live demo.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 23, 2015, 09:18:22 PM
I have finished the design of a demo for the SSB dozen and column system
It was not very easy. I played on the internet site in the fun mode.  After a mistake I must start a new session. Now I have a 55 spin session. Some betting events are also useful for the double dozen systems.
Once it happens ,I needed a 6 steps progression. This is unbelieveble rare. Such an event requires steel nerves.
I think to offer as a try-out this demo Friday night on internet.If you are interested watch the blog or write an email.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 25, 2015, 07:42:15 AM
Yesterday I have edited the demo a little bit and repaired some small imperfections. I think it is ready for a public show.
 I can imagine that an excel sheet for some  perhaps most players is too difficult. In that case you can learn a lot watching  the demo.
Understanding systems is a first step to become a successful strategy player.
I shall start my computer about 21.30 w.e.t.
You are very welcome to visit the demo.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on June 25, 2015, 11:27:59 AM
Maybe someone can record it?  Or can you share it as a Powerpoint presentation?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 25, 2015, 01:12:31 PM
The demo is a live PowerPoint presentation of about 30 minutes. Do you have proposals to share it another method. Everone can use a screen recorder. Some software is  30 days free to try it out.

Time difference is a problem for a live demo.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on June 25, 2015, 01:15:29 PM
I use a freeware program called "IceCream".  Unless you can distribute the .ppt file that's the only way I think it can be done.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 25, 2015, 01:42:01 PM
The commercial software of Skype and Mikogo have also possibilities to record a presentation.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on June 25, 2015, 01:45:16 PM
I guess we need a volunteer to record it. : (
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 26, 2015, 07:36:15 PM
I am preparing my computer.

The system I will demonstrate is  the SSB for dozens and columns
The betting is the Martingale scheme 1-3-9-27-81.
It is very dangerous and I can not recommend the system for unexperience players.
I use this system with my strategy but I have decreased the risk.
I wish you much pleasure.
For questions you might contact me
Goto  go.mikogo.com   ID key 517 053 423
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on June 26, 2015, 07:44:27 PM
Did I miss it already?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: malifeki on June 26, 2015, 07:49:06 PM
I can not join the session because maximum number of participants is already reached......
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on June 26, 2015, 08:33:18 PM
Thanks Dobble.  Very interesting way to cover more than 24 numbers with very little cost.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: malifeki on June 26, 2015, 08:37:38 PM
Hi Dobbel,

I must say that later I could join and follow your session.
I will try it on live casino - online. I must say that I lost quite a lot of money betting on colums and rows but I never tried on that way - most repeaters that I had see was 26 times same row.
Thanks again that you share your expirience.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: malifeki on June 26, 2015, 09:33:15 PM
Sorry,
i missed the point, most fell one dosen what I saw was 10 in row in live online casino - and I lost quite a lot of money that time. So that could be possible even in your system. Have you any recovery plan in that case?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 27, 2015, 08:18:27 AM
Malifeki the advantage of SSB is that you never have to wait for an event that happens once on 81 spins.
Martingale is a very adangerous system. You need experience to use M. On the table I wait till the event of 4 dozens or columns has started to repeat twice. The risk that   you become bankrupt is much decreased.

Example:  12-23-14-33-1-19  , 12 and 23 are the same dozens 1 and 19 . The expectation is that the next result is not dozen 2. The trigger is the number 14. Bet 1 unit on dozen 1 and 2
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 07, 2015, 09:54:36 AM
Some members or guests have demand another presentation of my powerpoint demos and a live RNG demo.

Tomorrow evening between 21.00 and 23.00 I have time for a public presentation.

You are cordially invited.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on July 07, 2015, 05:26:03 PM
Wow!  What is the GMT time on that?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 07, 2015, 07:42:13 PM
For the UK 20-22
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on July 07, 2015, 08:25:24 PM
I'll probably be working but maybe I will just be waking up, we'll see! : D
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 08, 2015, 07:58:30 AM
I start this evening with the demo SSB for the ECs. The excel program is an example  for High and Low.I play in the demo SSB for Red and Black. The experience player can play all the ECs together.

The second demo is the SSB system for the dozens and the columns

When I play the B&M roulette the risk is rather big and I start Martingale after 2 no hits.

Here an explanation:
(http://i58.tinypic.com/2v9p474.png)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 08, 2015, 06:59:27 PM
I have started my computer. Goto go.mikogo.com  The ID key is 466 952 801
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: eurobsgame on July 08, 2015, 09:00:51 PM
How does this connection work Dobbelsteen ? I entered the code on mikogo  but when I wanted to join the session it got on hold . When I clicked the tools bar , the program indicated that the sessionhad  paused. I did join in a little late, at 10:35 CET.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: malifeki on July 08, 2015, 09:04:25 PM
Hi Dobbel,

i missed your demo. Is any possibility to get it as ppt demonstration? And is possible to get from your your excel sheet for your SSB system?
And question, do you always use Martingale progression or did you test any other progression too?

Thanks at advance and regards,

Miran
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 09, 2015, 03:17:34 PM
Malifeki if you send an email to rouletteplayersclub@hotmail.nl ,I reply with the program.
Some peaple has a problem to understand the excel program. The demo shows how you can play SSB. Martingale is a dangerous betting system. I use SSB occasially.
Eurobsgame has also demanded a presentation
Do a proposal for an appointment. From next Sunday I am out of town.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 23, 2015, 12:27:24 PM

(http://i58.tinypic.com/14m5lps.png)

There is more than  a casino. Perhaps is this the dream of many roulette player.
Before you become a succesful roulette player, you have to learn a lot.
I hope my theory and explanation can help you.
From now I am available  again for advice or a demo.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on July 23, 2015, 12:37:18 PM
Thank you so much for this picture!  I have no dreams of great material possessions but I have great dreams nonetheless!  Thank you for contributing to my roulette education!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 31, 2015, 09:17:28 AM
Scepticus why I irritate you my fair commentary on this forum. I approache the roulette from a matematical and statistic point of vieuw.  I have developed my long and short theory and try to explain that theory to interested roulette players. Perhaps to difficult for you.
Many members have asked for my free excel programs and participated my demos.

Your manner of playing is not bad for a B&M casino with many tables.
Roulette is not a money machine, more a game for fun.

Words as EV, HE, strategy, systems are use many times  in the wrong context. This abuses discussions.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on July 31, 2015, 11:20:59 AM
Scepticus why I irritate you my fair commentary on this forum. I approache the roulette from a matematical and statistic point of vieuw.  I have developed my long and short theory and try to explain that theory to interested roulette players. Perhaps to difficult for you.
Many members have asked for my free excel programs and participated my demos.

Your manner of playing is not bad for a B&M casino with many tables.
Roulette is not a money machine, more a game for fun.

Words as EV, HE, strategy, systems are use many times  in the wrong context. This abuses discussions.
Where did I say you irritate me, Dobbelsteen ? 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 01, 2015, 02:22:05 PM
See your reply on 31 juli in  " Is the roulette wheel beatable".
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on August 01, 2015, 02:51:05 PM
See your reply on 31 juli in  " Is the roulette wheel beatable".

Yes Dobbelsteeen I now see that I did. I also said it was nothing personal so thought no more about it.
My criticism was about your statement that the HE was UNBEATABLE. That is plainly untrue so your view is negative and negativity about roulette does irritate me - no matter who says it.
Unless , of course , you can prove that the hE is unbeatable.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 01, 2015, 08:51:03 PM
Perhaps we do not understand eachother well.
The negative profit percentage of a true sample is by definition the HE. There is a small difference with the mathematical definition of the E(expected) V(alue). The profit percentage of a bet or a session is not the HE.
I donot know members on this forum who believe the HE and the EV is beatabble. I do not stand alone.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on August 01, 2015, 09:11:25 PM
The negative profit percentage of a true sample is by definition the HE. There is a small difference with the mathematical definition of the E(expected) V(alue).

So is that "small difference" then variance?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on August 01, 2015, 11:53:42 PM
Perhaps we do not understand eachother well.
The negative profit percentage of a true sample is by definition the HE. There is a small difference with the mathematical definition of the E(expected) V(alue). The profit percentage of a bet or a session is not the HE.
I donot know members on this forum who believe the HE and the EV is beatabble. I do not stand alone.

 I have always understood the House Edge ( HE ) to mean  the 2.7% advantage  the House has over the bettor. So, from that point of  view don't you agree that  it  would be silly to bet if the HE - as I understand it - is " unbeatable " ? 
You think it is " the negative  profit percentage of a true sample ". Different samples might give different HEs  so might this cause confusion ?
Might it be better if we all agreed on ONE clear  definition ?  Otherwise as is the case here cause unecessary disagreement .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 02, 2015, 01:12:23 PM
In general the HE depends on the kind of bet. For the AR the HE is 2.3% except the 5 number bet.
For the FR  is the HE for the ECs 1,35%, for the other chances 2,7% and for a mixed odd the house edge is between 1,35% and 2,7 %.

The EV is not depend on the bets.
(http://i59.tinypic.com/2s7ua1k.png)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on August 02, 2015, 01:30:43 PM
Ah, so we are spinning a big die of 37 sides.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on August 02, 2015, 02:01:58 PM
In general the HE depends on the kind of bet. For the AR the HE is 2.3% except the 5 number bet.
For the FR  is the HE for the ECs 1,35%, for the other chances 2,7% and for a mixed odd the house edge is between 1,35% and 2,7 %.

The EV is not depend on the bets.
(http://i59.tinypic.com/2s7ua1k.png)

We are not discussing the EV Dobbel but the HE.
The HE ( House Advantage ) IS 2.7% however you look at it.
As I have argued before . the 1.35 % on EC is unrelated to the maths . In the UK it is imposed by the Gambling Commission .
 We are discussing a 37 number wheel and there is no 5 number bet on it.
And OOPS ! There goes that word again - INFINITE  !
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 02, 2015, 08:16:58 PM
I do not discus the EV. Reyth asked  an explanation about  EV  and HE.

The 5 number bet is the odd on 0/00/1/3/4 of the AR. This is the most worse  odd of the roulette game. You are a donkey if you play that odd.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on August 02, 2015, 09:14:32 PM
I do not discus the EV. Reyth asked  an explanation about  EV  and HE.

The 5 number bet is the odd on 0/00/1/3/4 of the AR. This is the most worse  odd of the roulette game. You are a donkey if you play that odd.

You said that the HE was " unbeatable " I am asking you to justify that statement .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 03, 2015, 08:31:11 AM

(http://i61.tinypic.com/25z2pub.png)

I do not agree with the HE of the common BJ . My excel program for BJ calculates a HE on average about 2%
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on August 03, 2015, 10:25:51 AM

(http://i61.tinypic.com/25z2pub.png)

I do not agree with the HE of the common BJ . My excel program for BJ calculates a HE on average about 2%

but do you agree with the Roulette %  ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 04, 2015, 08:54:57 AM
I miss the  HE of the Frence Roulette with the En Prison rule.
There is no doubt!!!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on August 04, 2015, 11:28:09 AM
I miss the  HE of the Frence Roulette with the En Prison rule.
There is no doubt!!!

Yes  there is doubt !
 The "French " En prison LESSENS but does NOT eliminate the HE.
In the U.K. we do not have the en prison rule but " Half your money back " rule which  is not the same thing.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 05, 2015, 02:24:25 PM
Tthe house edge is unbeatable. The HE is 1,35% for the ECs and for the other chances 2,7% The HE for a mixex bet amounts between 1,35% and 2,7%.
 IT is an important dis advantagefor you in the UK that you can not play the FR. All internet casinos offer different roulette variations. You are a donkey when you have the choice between  the FR or others and you do not play the FR.   
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on August 05, 2015, 03:24:27 PM


my point  dobbelsteen  is  if you say that the HE  cannot be beaten why do you continue try to beat it ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on August 06, 2015, 06:10:07 AM
Pardon me to say, but I think what Dobbel is saying is that you can not change HE...
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 06, 2015, 08:40:35 AM
I try to beat the roulette not the HE. I have the feeling that I beated the roulette after every positive  session or visit. I play roulette as a chess game.. My opponent is the casino.
I am not looking for a winning system or a HG.
My strategy is based on a long year research of short run random rowsand a a lot of experience.
My motto is"Everybody can learn roulette play". Roulette is a game like other games.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on August 06, 2015, 01:56:11 PM
Pardon me to say, but I think what Dobbel is saying is that you can not change HE...

if so , december , then he should have made that  clear. I accept that the HE cannot be changed  because it is a GIVEN. To profit at  roulette you MUST beat the HE.  Dobbel is either confused  here or his understanding of the English language is faulty - although very good normally.
 Anyway, my target here is not so much Dobbel as the naysayers who claim that we cannot beat the HE and here Dobbel SEEMS to give credence to that view.THAT is the point I am making.He should change the wording.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 30, 2015, 09:50:40 AM
This week Holland Casino started a new possibility for the Multi Roulette.
In my house casino the table games open  at 15.00. From now it is also possible to play one table  of the casinos in Scheveningen and Rotterdam. They open at 12.00. From 15.00 I can,
sitting in my chair with a free drink,  play on 5 real tables.
For us stratigic players waiting for triggers and special events a very important advantage. See you in Holland!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on August 30, 2015, 12:22:08 PM
Grats! : D
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 31, 2015, 11:24:02 AM
The system works not yet perfect. Yesterday we had a particular incident.
At one of the an unvalid spin took place. The ball must turn around minimum 7 revelutions. After 2 revelutions the ball landed in number 4.
There was some panic on the floor. The terminals payout that spin. Manual all profits must pay back and everyone became their bets return.

The problem should be more complexed, when the unvalid spin had taken place in Scheveningen or Rotterdam
With a very simple appliance of the software it should not be happend.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on September 01, 2015, 09:44:06 AM
I hope to get a chance to meet you and your casino.
Is there any special dressing code or casual is ok?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on September 01, 2015, 11:55:16 PM
WOW!  That sounds exciting!  Post the pics or it didn't happen.jpg!!! : P
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 02, 2015, 02:05:54 PM
Scepticus you must make the difference between the House Edge and the Expected Value. The EV has a mathematecal definition. House edge is the advantage of the casino.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on September 02, 2015, 03:17:24 PM
Scepticus you must make the difference between the House Edge and the Expected Value. The EV has a mathematecal definition. House edge is the advantage of the casino.
So what is the mathematical Expected Value  if not the House Edge  ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 03, 2015, 08:59:27 AM
for example Black Jack has an House edge of about 2%, but not an Expected Value.
Most peaple do not know the difference because the valid of the house edge and the EV is the same for European and American roulette. The Frence roulette has a HE between 1,35% and 2,7% due the La Partage
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on September 03, 2015, 11:29:09 AM
for example Black Jack has an House edge of about 2%, but not an Expected Value.
Most peaple do not know the difference because the valid of the house edge and the EV is the same for European and American roulette. The Frence roulette has a HE between 1,35% and 2,7% due the La Partage

The French HE is still the House Edge whatever it's value.
The French and UK House Edge is not the true mathematical edge but only exists because of the authorities' ruling.This may disappear  in the UK because of the change in the rules of the Gambling Commission.
We have different opinions on this dobbel .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 04, 2015, 10:49:36 AM
Sorry I have no knowledg of the rules of the Gambling Commision of the UK. On internet there are many misunderstandings about many items. The context, wherein words with a double meaningare used, is important
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 05, 2015, 09:06:46 AM
I promote the Holland Casino as the most custom friendly casino. I visit this casino more than 38 years. In all these years I did a lot of research and developed the analyze programs for the roulette. My knowledge of the random rows is the basic of my strategy. I use the statistic signals to start my bets. From the beginning I watch all the tables before placing my bets.
The new Multi Roulette gives me the choice to play on 3 to 5 real tables on a touch screen. This is very important for me.
Yesterday I came in collision with the floor manager. With the video camera  they had watched my manner of playing. I used 2 terminals to switch from one table to another.
By the house rules this should be forbidden and L left the casino disappointed.
Coming home I have directly looked up the casino house rules. In article 10 of the rules this is only not obliged in the case there are more players than terminals.
With my next visit I shall challenge the casino management and play my game.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on September 05, 2015, 09:12:30 AM
Wow.  Why must you use two terminals?  Are you trying to disrupt their statistical picture of you as a player?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 06, 2015, 11:29:10 AM
Reyth:  I have some physical problems why I can play more than one real table.
 The MR is ideal for me. On a terminal you have the choice about 2 to5 real roulette tables , but you can play only on one. You cannot switch to other tables when you  are betting. I will watch also the other table and that is only possible with a second terminal. On the second termibal I bet too.

Yesterday afternoon I played my game  with two terminals and nobody complained.I finished my visit with a profit of 70 units.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on September 06, 2015, 10:25:02 PM
Wow grats!  Ya I understand now. : )
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 20, 2015, 09:43:34 AM
I use the microsoft translator.

The Dutch roulette table 1
Centuries ago, the roulette as a game of chance is developed.
Blaise Pascal is probably the one that the 37 numbers in a special way on the circumference of the cylinder has divided. The table format makes it possible to easily wager on the different opportunities. This table layout creates 157 different wager opportunities. The table players use these opportunities to all kinds of different strategies and to develop systems.
The most popular are the systems for the even opportunities, the dozens, columns and the transversals. Also the particular systems for the number of chips are famous as Martingale, Fibonacci, D'Alembert, Labouchere and others in the course of time developed.
 Using the strategies and the wager schema’s one tries to play profitable. The roulette has always a small advantage on the player. This so-called home advantage can`t be beaten with strategies and systems.
 There are endless possibilities for designing a strategy. It is a futile pursuit to an ideal system. The ideal system is generally called the Holy Grail.
Be continued
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 21, 2015, 12:46:34 PM
The Dutch roulette table 2
In addition to the table players, there are also a large number of players which try to guess where the ball in the cylinder will fall. Throwing the ball must take place according to fixed rules.
With statistical observations are you trying to find where the ball on average more in the cylinder. Others try by estimating the rotation speeds of the cylinder and the ball to determine in which sector the ball will land.

This method requires a lot of experience and is for the regular roulette player unsuitable. The time for placing the chips on a sector is very short. On the internet are even computer tools for sale.  The search for defective roulette cylinders is completely out of time.

As long as the French roulette cylinder it is possible to play in a number of particular sectors.  These are great series, the small series, the orphelins, the zero game and the neighbors game. The betting and the payouts are for the player very tricky.  These bets were as a announce to the dealer handed over. The table had for these bets special boxes.

 At the French roulette  4 croupiers cared  for the proper conduct of the game. Because everyone the same chips used, major conflicts often arose.
At today's roulette is only 1 dealer responsible for the perfect state of affairs. Also the use of color chips with the grading machine makes the job of the dealer less complicated and he has more time to control the game. The table has for the sector a separate neighbor tableau. The croupier must now still operate this tableau. For the sector games are no known special systems or strategies known.
Because there is no direct link between the table design and the cylinder is the format of the table also suitable for the RNG roulette games
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 22, 2015, 07:56:16 AM
The Dutch roulette table 3.

Over the years there is little renewed to the roulette game. The tokens are replaced by colored chips. The boxes for the sector games have been replaced by the neighbors table layout. Only 1 dealer accompanies the game. In America one has a double zero added.

The Dutch roulette table is an entirely new concept with very many new possibilities. This is both for the single zero roulette table as for the double zero roulette table suitable. There is a direct relationship between the cylinder and the roulette table layout. The table layout also allows the players to bet without problems on the sectors. One can bet with only 1 chip on the big series, the small series and the orphelins. The zero game and the neighbors game one can play without problems in different variants. It is even possible to play on an extra single chance.
All in all, a lot of new possibilities.

The Dutch table layout is the extraordinary layout for live and RNG roulette for the online casinos. The investment for the B&M casino is only a new tablecloth.
I believe the Dutch roulette table has a brilliant future,

Unfortunately, the table is not yet in production but that will not be long.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 16, 2015, 09:31:46 AM
The long run theory.

On the forum , you can read you will lose every profit on the long run. It is  caused by the rule of het large numbers.
The problem is that the writers of that statement doesnot know what long run means.
If the long run is more than 1M spins you can make a profit playing short run sessions.
The black swan can only  take the last bet but not the former profit.
All frequent players will meet once the black swan, but that doesnot fou shall lose all your profit

The rong run of an even chance starts about 200 spins. This is the danger of even systems with a negative progression

By betting on special events or patterns you can increase the number of spins of the short run.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 05, 2015, 11:14:39 AM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2h7mbtt.png)

This is an example of the brant new Dutch Roulette Table. For the double zero I have also a design.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on November 05, 2015, 02:39:12 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2h7mbtt.png)

This is an example of the brant new Dutch Roulette Table. For the double zero I have also a design.

Wow mind boggling!  Droit and gauge?? wow!  I wonder if that might be more exploitable for the Dream Chaser.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 06, 2015, 11:41:09 AM
The Dutch Roulette  Table has an extra even chance.The serie 32/10 is the eighteen numbers on the right side of the wheel and the serie 5/26 are the neighbors on the left side of the wheel.
The payout of the sector 22/2 is 1-2, the sector 36/20 1-3 and the orphelins 1-4 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Harryj on November 06, 2015, 11:50:41 AM
    I recently spent some time testing whether it was better to bet DS and Dozens in their order around the wheel rather than that on the layout. The idea definitely seemed to have some merit. The problem was that bets had to be placed Straight Up which complicated the betting procedure and tracking. On this layout it would be a dream.

          Harry
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 07, 2015, 11:07:19 AM
Kav if you are interested in the whole paper concerning the Dutch tables to publish here on Roulette 30 ,I can give you the permission.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Harryj on November 07, 2015, 04:05:46 PM
I see that the design is marked 'copyright'. If you have the permission why not just post it. I am sure everyone will be interested. The fact that there is a double zero design, seems to indicate that there are plans for wider distribution than just the Holland. this is a much more interesting developement than some of the ideas that have cropped up recently.
      I, for one, would love the chance to adapt my methods for such a layout.

      Regards,
                        Harry
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 08, 2015, 01:06:48 AM
Because it " mimics " the wheel , harry, it may be more useful to Advantage Players but I think it will be confusing to newcomers ( newbies ) when searching for their favourite numbers.
As you say it has possibilities for Method players too.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Harryj on November 08, 2015, 08:51:24 AM
    Hi Scep,
         It would in fact be very useful to AP players. Who would be able to be able to bet large sectors of the wheel with 1 or 2 chips. However I suspect these layouts would only be available on airball type macgines, or where NMB was called before the spin, or very earlin the spin.

        This type of layout would seem to be ideal for my style of play. Hence my attempts to create a similar situation using the current layout. It turned out that the difference was quite small and did not seem worth the trouble of playing several chips rather than just 1 with the current layout. However it was very close as the machine I normally play on allows bets to be plced directly onto a wheel diagram. As you know it is very small advantages that we exploit.

      Hope you are keeping well, regards,
                                                           Harry
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 08, 2015, 02:48:49 PM
I am keeping well Harry,thanks.
i'm off to sunny Tenerife next week for 2 weeks holiday.
Regards
Scep
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on November 08, 2015, 07:21:48 PM
Hi dobbel,

Thank you very much for the offer. Yes, it could be interesting to see the whole paper concerning the Dutch table and probably post it on the main site. Please send it at 30@roulette30.com
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 09, 2015, 11:49:29 AM
Kav the editing and translation of the Dutch paper takes more time. As soon as possible I send you the paper.
At this moment I focus on the European roulette community.
I know there are many followers in the UK and Us who use the double zero roulette.
 This are two examples of my Dutch American Tables.
These tables makes it possible to play in an easy way the large and small series and the orphelins like the France Roulette.
At one table you can play the series with one unit.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 09, 2015, 12:12:02 PM
I have some troubles with pasting the pictures.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 09, 2015, 01:19:20 PM
http://oi66.tinypic.com/zjfe9w.jpg

http://oi66.tinypic.com/zjfe9w.jpg
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Harryj on November 11, 2015, 11:20:20 AM
    Have a good holiday Scep. I wish you and your wife well.

    Dobblesteen,
                       Have you passed the info on to Kav ? I can't wait to see what plans there are to expand this idea. While the non numerical order of the layout might cause some early confusion, the ability to easily bet most of the sector type bets should make it very popular.

      I just feel that the casinos might not want to unravel the complexities of betting sectors.

              Harry
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Ringmaster on November 11, 2015, 01:24:02 PM
 

YEEAAAGHH!
Who let this this one out of the bottle, at least the carpet layout my Zoe plays on has roads that lead somewhere, and a picture of a cow on an identifiable grass colored space that even to a child, represents a field.
This, how shall I describe, it is the most awkward concoction of silliness with a lack of any semblance of purpose or design, no concept of tradition roulette play, table management, or operation, and can you imagine hapless croupiers who had to explain this exciting NEW? Game to novice players??
Here are the cold facts,
The Classic Roulette layout (single sided) has 13 outside wager sections.
The C***** Roulette layout (dbl sided) has 17 outside wager sections.
The Classic layout (single sided) numbers are (head) vertical to Zero.
The C***** layout (dbl sided) numbers are (ankle) vertical to Zero.
(Upside down and in the wrong place for the dealer.)
The Orphelins span on the Classic layout is 1, 6, 9, 14, 17, 20, 31, 34.
The Orphelins span on the C***** layout is 6, 9., (13), 14, 17,25, (27), 31, 34!
I hear Ferrari and Porsche are having their next models designed by the same studio. A V3 with a 911cc capacity perhaps?.
I could go on, but, I have a life to lead in the real world. ....Ringmaster.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 11, 2015, 02:50:06 PM
From your post on this forum I thought you are an experience player.I am 80 and I think you are from my age but  extremely conservative.
The sector games of the French roulette is basically the soul of roulette.
On the classic tables a player cannot place his bets on his own. He needs the help of the croupier .For the large series (Voisins du Zero) you had to handle 9 chips to the croupier. The payout is not the same for every hit.
The Dutch table makes it possible to play all series with only one chip. Especial for the internet players this is very interested.

You can also bet with a negative progression and other strategies.Splits, corners , Streets, double Streets etc. are the same. The payouts are not changed. For experience croupiers there is nothing changed.

AP players can put much faster the chips on sectors wher they expect the ball will fall.

Ringmaster you need an new pair of glasses.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 11, 2015, 04:36:25 PM
From your post on this forum I thought you are an experience player.I am 80 and I think you are from my age but  extremely conservative.
The sector games of the French roulette is basically the soul of roulette.
On the classic tables a player cannot place his bets on his own. He needs the help of the croupier .For the large series (Voisins du Zero) you had to handle 9 chips to the croupier. The payout is not the same for every hit.
The Dutch table makes it possible to play all series with only one chip. Especial for the internet players this is very interested.

You can also bet with a negative progression and other strategies.Splits, corners , Streets, double Streets etc. are the same. The payouts are not changed. For experience croupiers there is nothing changed.

AP players can put much faster the chips on sectors wher they expect the ball will fall.

Ringmaster you need an new pair of glasses.
It does seem to be designed for AP  players but why would they do this if they feared AP players ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 12, 2015, 09:08:32 AM
The French roulettehave a history of centuries. The wagers on Voisin du Zero , Orphelins and Tiers du cilindrea are as old as the roulette. The problem is that the classic table is not suitable for these wagers. The player needs the help of the croupier to place their bets.
In the Dutch casinos the 4 croupiers are replaced by one. That is the reason the table as an extralayout for the sectors and the neighbors. This is also taken over by the RNg and internet roulettee games.
 Do you want to play neighbors you have to switch from one window to another. Ergometrical not smart.

My Dutch tables have bring back the roulette on the table with many advantages above the classic tables.
The roulette game can played easier with much more pleasure. 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Harryj on November 13, 2015, 01:37:31 PM
     Hi Dobbel,
                Scep has raised the question as to why the casino would make things easier for AP players. I believe that they could overcome that problem by calling NMB before the ball is released. The ease with which bets can be placed should satisfy the current slow players, who hold the game up by dropping chips all over the layout.

      The layout certainly makes betting easier once you get used to it.  BUT, why would they make it so much easier for strategy players like you and I ?  Are theey so sure, like our AP freinds, that system and strategies cannot work. That they are prepared to gift use an extra advantage ?

       I agree that the layout could increase the pleasure of the average player, but at what expense?

           Harry
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 16, 2015, 09:57:12 AM
Harry The visitors of the internet casinos have a total different  mentality than table players.They gamble with small bets.The Dutch table is very suitable for internet and multiplayer equipments. The House Edge  is not changed and still 2,7% for the European roulette and 5,3 % for the double zero roulette
 I agree the NMB makes it much difficult for the AP players. I do not beleave in AP.

On the Dobbelsteen challenge I have published a new SSB system with a much better performance.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on December 07, 2015, 02:09:22 PM
Hey Dobble!

I found a particular system online that places great emphasis for its effectiveness on the "short run" versus the "long run".  This has given me a greater understanding of your methods.  Now I see the importance of examining the short runs for their characteristics and your wisdom concerning long runs being of little importance.

I think the key is to observe the short run many times so that it becomes a long run through many repetitions.  In those short runs I think it is possible to observe some important statistics that can be of great help such as:

"No winning sequence contains X amount of balance draw down" (or very few).

For a long time I have not understood nor agreed with your methods but now I see the light and I understand what you are doing because all systems (as opposed to strategies) fail in the long run because eventually they will always encounter the rare statistical anomalies (helped out by the house edge)!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Harryj on December 07, 2015, 07:22:21 PM
Hey Dobble!

I found a particular system online that places great emphasis for its effectiveness on the "short run" versus the "long run".  This has given me a greater understanding of your methods.  Now I see the importance of examining the short runs for their characteristics and your wisdom concerning long runs being of little importance.

I think the key is to observe the short run many times so that it becomes a long run through many repetitions.  In those short runs I think it is possible to observe some important statistics that can be of great help such as:

"No winning sequence contains X amount of balance draw down" (or very few).

For a long time I have not understood nor agreed with your methods but now I see the light and I understand what you are doing because all systems (as opposed to strategies) fail in the long run because eventually they will always encounter the rare statistical anomalies (helped out by the house edge)!

    Hey Reyth,
                   Does this mean that you are going to give up worrying about what will happen in the next million spins, and concentrate on the more important question," what might happen in the next 10 ?"

       Harry
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on December 07, 2015, 07:29:00 PM
LOL.  Of course not!  I will always use sets of 16M spins for system analysis so I know what worst possible streaks I can expect overall and to test system modifications and their effects. : P
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on December 07, 2015, 08:33:53 PM
LOL.  Of course not!  I will always use sets of 16M spins for system analysis so I know what worst possible streaks I can expect overall and to test system modifications and their effects. : P

Reyth
How many different "possibilities " are there in 16 million spins.
and how many trials would you need to make to establish "certainty " ?
If you think in terms  37 spins why the  need to research 16m ?
If the Expectation of loss in 37 spins does not always materialise  why should it happen in any other 37 spins ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on December 07, 2015, 10:47:51 PM

LOL.  Of course not!  I will always use sets of 16M spins for system analysis so I know what worst possible streaks I can expect overall and to test system modifications and their effects. : P

Quote
How many different "possibilities " are there in 16 million spins.

There are many possible variations in 16M spins.

Quote
and how many trials would you need to make to establish "certainty " ?

The only certainty in roulette is that there is never any certainty.  However, with that being said, after a certain number of spins, results start to remain the same for millions, billions, trillions and even quadrillions of spins.  Although this is not "certainty", it is relative certainty because there is a reason that Monte Carlo events always have a date that includes the year.

Quote
If you think in terms  37 spins why the  need to research 16m ?

Because many millions of spins allows the worst that the wheel can be expected to bring to "express itself".

Quote
If the Expectation of loss in 37 spins does not always materialise  why should it happen in any other 37 spins ?

Because 37 spins does not wheel results expectation make?  It is well known that a person can play roulette for days and even weeks without encountering a sequence that will destroy his system which is why extensive testing is required.  Millions of spins represents one kind of extensive testing.  I would rather know what I can expect to face ahead of time rather than get broadsided by the iceberg that I had no idea even existed.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on December 09, 2015, 02:18:40 PM

LOL.  Of course not!  I will always use sets of 16M spins for system analysis so I know what worst possible streaks I can expect overall and to test system modifications and their effects. : P

Quote
How many different "possibilities " are there in 16 million spins.

There are many possible variations in 16M spins.

Quote
and how many trials would you need to make to establish "certainty " ?

The only certainty in roulette is that there is never any certainty.  However, with that being said, after a certain number of spins, results start to remain the same for millions, billions, trillions and even quadrillions of spins.  Although this is not "certainty", it is relative certainty because there is a reason that Monte Carlo events always have a date that includes the year.

Quote
If you think in terms  37 spins why the  need to research 16m ?

Because many millions of spins allows the worst that the wheel can be expected to bring to "express itself".

Quote
If the Expectation of loss in 37 spins does not always materialise  why should it happen in any other 37 spins ?

Because 37 spins does not wheel results expectation make?  It is well known that a person can play roulette for days and even weeks without encountering a sequence that will destroy his system which is why extensive testing is required.  Millions of spins represents one kind of extensive testing.  I would rather know what I can expect to face ahead of time rather than get broadsided by the iceberg that I had no idea even existed.
Reyth
you ducked my challenge to say how many possibilities there are in 16 million spins so I'll make it easieer for you. How many possibilities are there in ONE MILLION spins?
Of single numbers ?
Of Dozens ?
Of Even- Money Chances.
No need to give details - just the number of zeros involved. My purpose is to show the absurdity  of analysing one million spins and  getting anything meaningful from them .
The EXPECTATION in 37 spins does not always happen - nor two sets of 37 - nor 3 sets of 37. So how many series of 37 spins are needed before this expectation materialises ? I say no one knows. Do you know anyone who does claim to know ? This superman who can foretell with accuracy an uncertain future  where Random lurks ?

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on December 09, 2015, 07:50:36 PM
When results no longer change, THERE is relative certainty; by this I mean only a Monte Carlo Moment (TM) is the exception.

Everyone plays and thinks about roulette in their own way.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on December 09, 2015, 08:17:10 PM
When results no longer change, THERE is relative certainty; by this I mean only a Monte Carlo Moment (TM) is the exception.

Everyone plays and thinks about roulette in their own way.
Come on reyth humour me and tell me how many possibilities there are in a million spins.
,
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on December 09, 2015, 10:17:27 PM
That isn't a question I can answer because its too general; possibilities of what, the number 38 coming up?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on December 10, 2015, 12:55:23 AM
That isn't a question I can answer because its too general; possibilities of what, the number 38 coming up?
What I am getting at here Reyth, is the nonsense of The  Long Run.
We are told that we cannot win in the Long Run because  the odds against  us will kill our bankroll and any profits we have made until we Meet Our DOOM  !
Simulations are made to " PROVE " this and I claim that this is nonsense because for  any million spins they produce there aregazillions more possibilities so their's is only a snapshot and a snapshot is not the proof they claim.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on December 10, 2015, 02:32:50 AM
In the final analysis all statistics are only a snapshot because our scope of view will always be limited but over very very many spins, the statistics will hold to a certain overall pattern and that snapshot is not useless, its just very very reliable.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on December 10, 2015, 04:00:40 AM
In the final analysis all statistics are only a snapshot because our scope of view will always be limited but over very very many spins, the statistics will hold to a certain overall pattern and that snapshot is not useless, its just very very reliable.
reliable for what purpose ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on December 10, 2015, 06:05:28 AM
There are many possible purposes depending on what someone wants to accomplish with the data.  The most obvious is to discover the greatest extremes one can expect.  Another is to compile that data for analysis for system design; if you can beat the worst the wheel can be expected to bring, you have beaten roulette.   
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on December 10, 2015, 12:42:57 PM
There are many possible purposes depending on what someone wants to accomplish with the data.  The most obvious is to discover the greatest extremes one can expect.  Another is to compile that data for analysis for system design; if you can beat the worst the wheel can be expected to bring, you have beaten roulette.
That may be true Reyth but Harry , Palestis and Dobbelsteen can make deductions from much less spins.
And mine is much less than theirs and we still survive.
If I wrote here the next 100  winning colours  your data would " Eventually " show a series where all 100 were correct wouldn't it ?
 What I want  to know Reyth is how does your data help me to win when playing roulette ? Everything else is " noise ".
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on December 10, 2015, 02:04:31 PM
It depends on what you are looking for.  I can highlight specific events and output the sequences.  It is very easy to tag them for review.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on December 10, 2015, 02:55:18 PM
It depends on what you are looking for.  I can highlight specific events and output the sequences.  It is very easy to tag them for review.
i don't see much point in continuing with this Reyth as I had already given you a task which you didn't understand.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on December 11, 2015, 03:23:56 AM
It depends on what you are looking for.  I can highlight specific events and output the sequences.  It is very easy to tag them for review.
i don't see much point in continuing with this Reyth as I had already given you a task which you didn't understand.

Emil Borel’s  Long Run
In his book “ Focus on Gambling “ E.L. Figgis cites the SEVENTEENTH CENTURY mathematician Emile Borel ‘s take on The Long Run
“ Borel imagined the 2 million inhabitants of Paris playing Heads and Tails at the rate of one toss per second for eight hours a day. This meant approximately  10 million tosses per year.
Each player contracted to stop only when the situation was
 “ all square “.After ten years there were still one hundred couples still playing .In order that the contract should not be broken play was carried on by the descendants of the original players , and after TEN CENTURIES there were still ten games in progressiion. “
Little wonder that no mathematician will state - with certainty - when  his Long Run will end. As I have said before - NO ONE KNOWS how long the long run is !
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on December 11, 2015, 06:49:06 AM
It depends on what you are looking for.  I can highlight specific events and output the sequences.  It is very easy to tag them for review.
i don't see much point in continuing with this Reyth as I had already given you a task which you didn't understand.

Emil Borel’s  Long Run
In his book “ Focus on Gambling “ E.L. Figgis cites the SEVENTEENTH CENTURY mathematician Emile Borel ‘s take on The Long Run
“ Borel imagined the 2 million inhabitants of Paris playing Heads and Tails at the rate of one toss per second for eight hours a day. This meant approximately  10 million tosses per year.
Each player contracted to stop only when the situation was
 “ all square “.After ten years there were still one hundred couples still playing .In order that the contract should not be broken play was carried on by the descendants of the original players , and after TEN CENTURIES there were still ten games in progressiion. “
Little wonder that no mathematician will state - with certainty - when  his Long Run will end. As I have said before - NO ONE KNOWS how long the long run is !

Of course.  I agree.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 24, 2015, 12:42:26 PM
Still a few days and the year 2015 is past.
I wish all my followers a mrry Christmas and a very Lucky 2016
I hope lady fortune will accompany you.

I have founded with 4 enthousiastic young owners a new company Dutch Roulette Design

1 januari we start to introduce the dutch roulette tables.

For a Dutch roulette site I am invited to write a column about the roulette and the theory.

I shall follow the forums on Roulette 30 ,but  I shall participate in the discussions a liile less

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Harryj on December 24, 2015, 01:47:17 PM
Still a few days and the year 2015 is past.
I wish all my followers a mrry Christmas and a very Lucky 2016
I hope lady fortune will accompany you.

I have founded with 4 enthousiastic young owners a new company Dutch Roulette Design

1 januari we start to introduce the dutch roulette tables.

For a Dutch roulette site I am invited to write a column about the roulette and the theory.

I shall follow the forums on Roulette 30 ,but  I shall participate in the discussions a liile less

    A merry Christmas to you too and to all who use the forum. A prosperous New Year to all.

            Harry
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Harryj on December 24, 2015, 01:52:27 PM
      Reyth,
              Scep has a valid point. I have nothing against  simulations other than they are always analysed in a way which offers no help to the better on the ground.
            By all means run your two million spins. then break them up into segments of 100,50,20, or even 10 spins. tell us what is happening at THAT level. That is information we can use !1

           Harry
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on December 24, 2015, 04:10:41 PM
Merry Christmas and best wishes to you and your families!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 04, 2016, 11:06:16 AM
At this moment I write weekly an paper about roulette on a Dutch website.
This week I have analysed the Fibonacci method for a 150 spins sample.
Here the results.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2ptbhuo.jpg)

(http://i67.tinypic.com/149b6zc.jpg)

(http://i67.tinypic.com/149b6zc.jpg)

The table gives the results o15 samples.

If there is a profit, the profit is very little. 8 Samples give a profit. In other threads I wrote that a system has a chance of 50% for a loss or winn.

The diagrams show the influence of the short  and long run.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 04, 2016, 11:11:56 AM
The diagram should have been the table. I try again.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/24e3pf7.jpg)

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on February 04, 2016, 11:17:27 AM
Dank U wel, Dobbel!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 17, 2016, 10:24:28 AM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2wnojly.jpg)

here some diagrams of my analyse of the D`Alembert method
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 17, 2016, 10:33:30 AM
I have some troubles with pasting images.

The first diagrams are the results of a 40 spins sample.

Now I try to do the same for  the 150 spins  sample.

Inzet= bet  uitbetaling= payout   winst =profit

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2wnojly.jpg)

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2wnojly.jpg)

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 21, 2016, 02:20:29 PM
The Labouchere method is much more difficult to program in Excel. Manual I have researched a sample of 150spins.

Labouchere is very interested for reseurchers whil you can alter the system and the the starting sequence.

On the forum I miss real examen results. Words, words and more words but no diagrams

Here my results of the 150 spins sample of Labouchere.

(http://oi63.tinypic.com/11h74ht.jpg)

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 21, 2016, 02:34:08 PM
(http://s9.tinypic.com/29y0d3r_th.jpg)

I have no idea why the images go wrong at this moment
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 22, 2016, 11:04:12 AM
I have no idea what is going wrong. Every time  I visit the forum I have to login.

When I place images the results are different with the same input.

The preview does not thow what is pupliced. I cannot delete a wrong reply or message.

Since short I use windows 10. Who has the same troubles??
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on February 22, 2016, 11:43:10 AM
Well, I have noticed the following things:

1) The smileys now work on this forum
2) Sometimes Tinypic will temporarily place a different image in our slot which is some kind of server error on their side but after a brief while it returns to normal
3) The "Insert Image" function is no longer working and therefore we must use the actual  tags on the URL for our images and put them in ourselves; i.e. img & /img

Code: [Select]
[img]https://media3.giphy.com/media/IjjqQvfFpSSxG/200_s.gif[/img]
Image tags test:

(https://media3.giphy.com/media/IjjqQvfFpSSxG/200_s.gif)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on February 22, 2016, 03:15:09 PM
(https://media3.giphy.com/media/IjjqQvfFpSSxG/200_s.gif)

(http://www.roulette30.com/wp-content/themes/ixn-master/images/roulette30.png)
Checking if insert image works...
Seems to work for me - I just pasted the url address of the above images
Reyth, can you test some more and give me feedback please?
Btw, congrats dobblesteen for reaching 17K views on this thread.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on February 22, 2016, 03:53:20 PM
When I click the "Image Insert" button, no popup occurs so I can enter the URL.  Here is a sample of just pasting the link without tags:

http://www.roulette30.com/wp-content/themes/ixn-master/images/roulette30.png

And here is pasting the link with tags:

(http://www.roulette30.com/wp-content/themes/ixn-master/images/roulette30.png)

So for me, I really don't care about the "Image Insert" button, I can do the tags myself and actually am very accustomed to doing so on other forums anyway. ;)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on February 22, 2016, 04:26:04 PM
Hmmm, for me the popup occurs...
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on February 22, 2016, 06:10:34 PM
Right, well I use a non-standard browser and so maybe its just a coincidence that Dobble is having problems with images at the same time I can't get the "Insert Image" button to function?  And for me that is seriously no big deal and removes zero functionality. ;)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on February 24, 2016, 09:54:00 AM
I try again to publish the diagrams of the Labouchere method

(http://i67.tinypic.com/fkadzd.jpg)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 05, 2016, 11:27:17 AM
I have analyzed the D`Alembert method for the double dozen.The start bet is 72 units each dozen 36 units.
After a hit the bet is decreased with 1unit and increase 1 unit after a nohit.When thebet is 0 the program start again with 72 units . the program stops bettting after ahit on the spin146.
Here the diagrams of a 150 and 50 spin. The table shows the results of 10 samples.
Take yourself the conclusions.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/iwow3p.jpg)
 (http://i64.tinypic.com/iwow3p.jpg)
(http://i64.tinypic.com/iwow3p.jpg)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on March 05, 2016, 11:42:30 AM
Thanks Dobbel, yes it certainly shows difference!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 05, 2016, 04:26:17 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2d963qs.jpg)

(http://i64.tinypic.com/wipn9y.jpg)

There was something wrong with pasting the program and the table
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on April 19, 2016, 11:11:28 AM
Is the D`Alembert method suitable for other chances as the ECs? My answer is NO. the number of losse is very often very large.The troughs and crests of the profit are extreme .
 I have research the DS chance for a 100spins sample. The initial bet is 20 units. After a win the bet is decreased by 1 and after a loss decreased with one. After spin 250 I have built in a stop after a win.

Hereby three examples and you can draw your own conclusions.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/15s3fi0.jpg)

(http://i65.tinypic.com/1g6cd0.jpg)

(http://i64.tinypic.com/2nqy7mu.jpg)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: december on April 19, 2016, 01:54:27 PM
...After a win the bet is decreased by 1 and after a loss decreased with one...
Overlooked something?

Thanks Dobbel!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 06, 2016, 10:46:30 AM
The SSB method and the coupon theory of Bayes
Let a RNG generate a figure between 1 and 512. Suppose it is 115. Wager now that the next figure is not 115. What is the risk you will lose? After a hit you do it again and again. How long it will take you will lose?
This is the principle of the SSB method.
A 10 number random sequence becomes the rank figure between 1 and 512. When you convert the random sequence in a random sequence of a EC there are 512 different sequences. The zero is a chameleon. When you wager on black the zero is red.
Every sequence is likely a coupon of Bayes.
I have programmed  in Excel SSB with 512 coupons.
Hereby  some pictures of the program.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/2evukbs.jpg)

Picture 1
The 2/3 rule is also valid for my SSB.
After 341 spins or coupons there are 171 coupons left. See next picture.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/504gw4.jpg)

Picture 2
For all the coupons we need 2724 spins.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/29eqjqt.jpg)

A study of the whole picture of  the SSB coupon trial will learn you that it is nearly impossible to lose with this method.
See the beautiful permanence in the SSB challenge topic.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 24, 2016, 02:01:40 PM
Interesting results

I have tryed to program this system in Excel.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 24, 2016, 02:06:03 PM
NOt everithing wiil succeed at once Another trial to attach the data of the program
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 24, 2016, 09:06:32 PM
Number   bet   pay spit   payo lines    payo numb   PAYOUT   W/L   SUM BET   SUM P O   SUM P 20   10   0   0   0   0   L   10   0   0   12   0   12   0
7   10   0   0   0   0   L   20   0   12   12   0   12   0
16   10   0   0   0   0   L   30   0   48   24   12   12   12
35   10   18   0   0   18   W   40   18   60   42   30   12   12
22   10   0   12   0   12   W   50   30   72   42   48   12   24
4   10   0   0   0   0   L   60   30   84   60   84   24   60
32   10   0   12   0   12   W   70   42   84   78   84   24   96
27   10   0   0   0   0   L   80   42   84   78   120   24   96
35   10   18   0   0   18   W   90   60   102   78   138   24   108
18   10   0   0   0   0   L   100   60   102   90   150   24   108
36   10   18   0   0   18   W   110   78   114   102   162   60   108
31   10   0   12   0   12   W   120   90   114   102   162   72   108
37   10   18   0   0   18   W   130   108   150   102   180   84   108
20   10   0   0   0   0   L   140   108   168   120   192   84   108
14   10   0   0   0   0   L   150   108   168   132   204   84   120
21   10   0   0   0   0   L   160   108   180   132   204   96   132
1   10   18   0   0   18   W   170   126   180   132   204   96   132
11   10   0   12   0   12   W   180   138   180   144   204   108   144
24   10   0   12   0   12   W   190   150   198   156   204   120   144
0   10   18   0   0   18   W   200   168   234   192   204   120   180
5   10   0   0   0   0   L   210   168   234   192   216   132   180
8   10   0   0   0   0   L   220   168   270   204   216   144   192
0   10   18   0   0   18   W   230   186   282   240   216   144   192
28   10   0   12   0   12   W   240   198   282   240   228   162   192
10   10   0   12   0   12   W   250   210   318   258   228   174   204
4   10   0   0   0   0   L   260   210   330   276   264   174   204
6   10   0   0   0   0   L   270   210   330   294   264   186   240
16   10   0   0   0   0   L   280   210   330   330   264   204   240
27   10   0   0   0   0   L   290   210   330   330   264   240   240
20   10   0   0   0   0   L   300   210   348   330   264   240   252
37   10   18   0   0   18   W   310   228   360   348   264   240   288
36   10   18   0   0   18   W   320   246   360   348   276   240   300
37   10   18   0   0   18   W   330   264   378   360   276   252   318
15   10   0   0   36   36   W   340   300   396   360   294   264   354
36   10   18   0   0   18   W   350   318   414   372   306   264   354
36   10   18   0   0   18   W   360   336   414   384   306   300   366
33   10   0   12   0   12   W   370   348   414   384   318   300   378
5   10   0   0   0   0   L   380   348   414   384   318   312   390
33   10   0   12   0   12   W   390   360   432   420   330   330   426
20   10   0   0   0   0   L   400   360   432   420   342   348   426
7   10   0   0   0   0   L   410   360   444   432   354   348   438
3   10   0   0   36   36   W   420   396   444   450   354   384   438
19   10   0   0   0   0   L   430   396   480   450   354   396   438
2   10   18   0   0   18   W   440   414   492   450   354   408   438
33   10   0   12   0   12   W   450   426   504   462   354   408   450
16   10   0   0   0   0   L   460   426   522   480   390   408   486
26   10   0   0   0   0   L   470   426   540   480   402   420   498
32   10   0   12   0   12   W   480   438   558   480   414   432   510
20   10   0   0   0   0   L   490   438   558   492   414   444   546
8   10   0   0   0   0   L   500   438   576   504   426   444   564
5   10   0   0   0   0   L   510   438   588   504   426   444   600
9   10   0   0   0   0   L   520   438   588   516   426   480   618
20   10   0   0   0   0   L   530   438   588   534   444   480   618
32   10   0   12   0   12   W   540   450   588   552   456   492   618
3   10   0   0   36   36   W   550   486   600   552   474   528   618
0   10   18   0   0   18   W   560   504   600   570   474   564   630
31   10   0   12   0   12   W   570   516   612   570   474   600   630
2   10   18   0   0   18   W   580   534   612   588   486   612   666
31   10   0   12   0   12   W   590   546   630   606   486   630   666
12   10   0   12   0   12   W   600   558   648   618   504   648   666
9   10   0   0   0   0   L   610   558   684   630   504   648   678
26   10   0   0   0   0   L   620   558   702   630   516   666   714
26   10   0   0   0   0   L   630   558   702   642   516   678   714
20   10   0   0   0   0   L   640   558   714   678   552   690   726
29   10   0   12   0   12   W   650   570   714   690   552   690   744
8   10   0   0   0   0   L   660   570   714   690   552   690   744
30   10   0   12   0   12   W   670   582   726   726   564   702   744
22   10   0   12   0   12   W   680   594   726   726   600   714   756
2   10   18   0   0   18   W   690   612   726   726   600   714   774
6   10   0   0   0   0   L   700   612   726   726   600   714   774
7   10   0   0   0   0   L   710   612   762   738   612   714   774
4   10   0   0   0   0   L   720   612   774   738   648   732   774
24   10   0   12   0   12   W   730   624   774   738   660   750   786
1   10   18   0   0   18   W   740   642   774   738   678   768   786
20   10   0   0   0   0   L   750   642   774   750   678   768   804
21   10   0   0   0   0   L   760   642   786   762   678   768   816
6   10   0   0   0   0   L   770   642   798   762   690   780   816
4   10   0   0   0   0   L   780   642   810   780   702   780   816
18   10   0   0   0   0   L   790   642   846   780   720   792   828
9   10   0   0   0   0   L   800   642   846   780   720   804   864
0   10   18   0   0   18   W   810   660   846   780   732   804   864
24   10   0   12   0   12   W   820   672   846   780   768   816   882
20   10   0   0   0   0   L   830   672   864   798   786   816   900
20   10   0   0   0   0   L   840   672   864   816   786   816   900
22   10   0   12   0   12   W   850   684   864   816   786   816   912
4   10   0   0   0   0   L   860   684   876   828   804   816   924
21   10   0   0   0   0   L   870   684   876   828   804   828   924
34   10   0   0   0   0   L   880   684   894   840   804   846   924
21   10   0   0   0   0   L   890   684   906   840   816   858   924
4   10   0   0   0   0   L   900   684   942   840   816   858   936
1   10   18   0   0   18   W   910   702   942   852   852   858   948
24   10   0   12   0   12   W   920   714   954   852   864   858   948
0   10   18   0   0   18   W   930   732   954   870   864   870   966
19   10   0   0   0   0   L   940   732   954   870   876   882   966
0   10   18   0   0   18   W   950   750   966   870   888   900   1002
37   10   18   0   0   18   W   960   768   966   870   888   912   1014
11   10   0   12   0   12   W   970   780   966   882   888   924   1026
16   10   0   0   0   0   L   980   780   966   894   900   936   1026
8   10   0   0   0   0   L   990   780   966   894   900   948   1062
20   10   0   0   0   0   L   1000   780   966   906   912   948   1074

The last 5 column shows the results of another 5 trials. Only the last trial has a positive result.These results collobotate to my short run theory.
After about 25 spins the number of positive results decreases
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 25, 2016, 09:46:05 AM
In this program I use the number 37 for the double zero. If you coun the number 37 then the conclusion is that the double zero has occured more than the average.

When the numbers 1  15 and 17 fall more than average the trial can be ended with a profit
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 26, 2016, 10:12:17 AM
I have the Kav bet program renewed. Basic is the next image.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/66j5uh.jpg)

bets 1 unit on0/00; 8/11; 13/14 ; 15/18 17/20;27/30
       1 unit on street 1/2/3
       2 units on doule street 31/36

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 26, 2016, 11:04:46 AM
I have problems with pasting my images.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/n2fzma.jpg)

(http://i64.tinypic.com/2h504nn.jpg)

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 26, 2016, 11:42:29 AM
Here the data of the Kav bet
RNG bet  split  street
                        d street po           s b                               1                                                         s payout 1000 1000 1000 1000 10001000 10001000 1000
18   9   18   0   0   18   W   9   18   1009   997   1009   1009   991   991   1009   991   991
2   9   0   12   0   12   W   18   30   1012   1006   1000   1000   994   982   1018   1000   1000
23   9   0   0   0   0   L   27   30   1003   1009   997   991   985   973   1009   1009   991
19   9   0   0   0   0   L   36   30   994   1000   1006   1000   976   982   1000   1000   982
2   9   0   12   0   12   W   45   42   997   997   1015   991   985   973   1009   997   985
17   9   18   0   0   18   W   54   60   1006   1006   1024   1000   976   964   1006   994   976
37   9   18   0   0   18   W   63   78   1015   997   1027   1009   985   961   1015   991   967
19   9   0   0   0   0   L   72   78   1006   988   1018   1018   976   952   1006   1000   958
12   9   0   0   0   0   L   81   78   997   979   1021   1009   985   961   1015   997   955
11   9   18   0   0   18   W   90   96   1006   982   1012   1000   976   952   1006   994   946
7   9   0   0   0   0   L   99   96   997   985   1003   991   973   961   1003   1003   937
4   9   0   0   0   0   L   108   96   988   976   1012   994   964   952   994   1012   928
0   9   18   0   0   18   W   117   114   997   985   1003   985   973   949   985   1021   919
25   9   0   0   0   0   L   126   114   988   994   1006   976   982   940   994   1012   916
23   9   0   0   0   0   L   135   114   979   1003   997   967   979   931   985   1021   925
31   9   0   0   12   12   W   144   126   982   994   994   964   970   922   976   1012   922
16   9   0   0   0   0   L   153   126   973   985   1003   973   973   931   985   1003   925
36   9   0   0   12   12   W   162   138   976   976   994   982   982   940   976   994   922
30   9   18   0   0   18   W   171   156   985   979   985   991   973   937   985   997   919
15   9   18   0   0   18   W   180   174   994   970   976   994   976   946   988   988   916
21   9   0   0   0   0   L   189   174   985   961   985   1003   985   955   997   997   919
21   9   0   0   0   0   L   198   174   976   952   976   994   976   946   988   988   928
30   9   18   0   0   18   W   207   192   985   961   985   985   967   937   979   979   925
7   9   0   0   0   0   L   216   192   976   958   982   976   964   946   982   988   922
18   9   18   0   0   18   W   225   210   985   955   991   967   973   943   973   979   925
20   9   18   0   0   18   W   234   228   994   958   1000   964   964   934   964   988   916
1   9   0   12   0   12   W   243   240   997   949   991   967   955   943   961   985   925
6   9   0   0   0   0   L   252   240   988   940   982   970   964   940   970   976   916
17   9   18   0   0   18   W   261   258   997   949   991   979   955   937   979   985   925
33   9   0   0   12   12   W   270   270   1000   940   982   970   964   940   988   988   916
37   9   18   0   0   18   W   279   288   1009   949   973   979   973   931   979   979   907
25   9   0   0   0   0   L   288   288   1000   958   982   988   970   922   988   970   898
35   9   0   0   12   12   W   297   300   1003   949   973   997   961   913   979   961   895
9   9   0   0   0   0   L   306   300   994   940   964   988   958   922   982   952   886
19   9   0   0   0   0   L   315   300   985   937   973   979   955   919   985   949   895
0   9   18   0   0   18   W   324   318   994   928   982   970   952   928   994   958   886
4   9   0   0   0   0   L   333   318   985   937   991   961   943   937   991   961   889
22   9   0   0   0   0   L   342   318   976   946   1000   958   952   946   1000   964   886
4   9   0   0   0   0   L   351   318   967   937   991   967   943   955   1009   973   877
19   9   0   0   0   0   L   360   318   958   946   982   976   952   964   1018   982   868
17   9   18   0   0   18   W   369   336   967   955   991   973   961   955   1009   979   859
4   9   0   0   0   0   L   378   336   958   946   982   970   952   946   1018   988   850
16   9   0   0   0   0   L   387   336   949   937   991   979   943   937   1009   985   841
2   9   0   12   0   12   W   396   348   952   946   988   970   952   946   1018   982   850
32   9   0   0   12   12   W   405   360   955   937   985   961   943   943   1021   973   859
3   9   0   12   0   12   W   414   372   958   934   994   970   952   952   1012   982   850
9   9   0   0   0   0   L   423   372   949   925   985   979   949   961   1003   973   841
33   9   0   0   12   12   W   432   384   952   934   994   988   946   952   994   964   832
31   9   0   0   12   12   W   441   396   955   925   991   997   937   949   985   973   841
4   9   0   0   0   0   L   450   396   946   922   994   1006   928   958   994   964   850
11   9   18   0   0   18   W   459   414   955   931   985   997   931   967   985   973   853
26   9   0   0   0   0   L   468   414   946   934   982   1000   922   976   982   964   844
30   9   18   0   0   18   W   477   432   955   925   985   997   931   973   979   973   853
8   9   18   0   0   18   W   486   450   964   916   988   994   922   964   970   976   862
9   9   0   0   0   0   L   495   450   955   925   979   997   913   967   961   973   871
26   9   0   0   0   0   L   504   450   946   928   988   1006   904   958   952   964   862
37   9   18   0   0   18   W   513   468   955   937   979   997   895   949   943   955   853
0   9   18   0   0   18   W   522   486   964   928   970   1006   892   958   952   958   850
33   9   0   0   12   12   W   531   498   967   925   967   1015   883   967   949   955   853
12   9   0   0   0   0   L   540   498   958   934   976   1012   874   970   958   946   862
5   9   0   0   0   0   L   549   498   949   943   967   1003   865   973   949   937   853
11   9   18   0   0   18   W   558   516   958   952   976   1012   856   982   940   940   862
13   9   18   0   0   18   W   567   534   967   961   973   1009   847   973   931   937   871
26   9   0   0   0   0   L   576   534   958   958   982   1018   838   982   928   946   880
9   9   0   0   0   0   L   585   534   949   949   973   1009   829   973   937   955   871
2   9   0   12   0   12   W   594   546   952   940   982   1018   826   964   928   946   880
10   9   0   0   0   0   L   603   546   943   931   985   1027   835   961   925   937   889
25   9   0   0   0   0   L   612   546   934   940   988   1036   832   952   922   946   898
11   9   18   0   0   18   W   621   564   943   931   979   1039   841   949   913   943   907
31   9   0   0   12   12   W   630   576   946   922   970   1030   832   946   916   940   904
17   9   18   0   0   18   W   639   594   955   913   979   1021   823   943   925   931   907
32   9   0   0   12   12   W   648   606   958   910   988   1012   814   934   916   940   904
8   9   18   0   0   18   W   657   624   967   919   979   1003   805   931   907   931   895
10   9   0   0   0   0   L   666   624   958   910   970   1012   814   934   910   934   886
37   9   18   0   0   18   W   675   642   967   901   961   1003   805   925   901   925   883
2   9   0   12   0   12   W   684   654   970   910   952   1012   796   916   910   934   880
17   9   18   0   0   18   W   693   672   979   901   943   1021   787   907   901   925   871
32   9   0   0   12   12   W   702   684   982   898   940   1018   796   898   892   916   862
18   9   18   0   0   18   W   711   702   991   889   949   1021   805   907   901   919   853
29   9   0   0   0   0   L   720   702   982   898   952   1030   796   898   892   916   850
28   9   0   0   0   0   L   729   702   973   889   943   1039   805   907   901   913   859
28   9   0   0   0   0   L   738   702   964   898   952   1030   796   898   904   904   862
7   9   0   0   0   0   L   747   702   955   895   949   1021   787   889   901   901   859
18   9   18   0   0   18   W   756   720   964   898   940   1012   778   880   892   892   850
1   9   0   12   0   12   W   765   732   967   895   949   1015   787   889   883   889   841
24   9   0   0   0   0   L   774   732   958   904   940   1024   778   886   874   898   844
28   9   0   0   0   0   L   783   732   949   895   931   1015   769   895   871   907   835
5   9   0   0   0   0   L   792   732   940   886   928   1018   778   886   880   898   826
5   9   0   0   0   0   L   801   732   931   877   937   1021   769   877   871   907   835
5   9   0   0   0   0   L   810   732   922   868   946   1030   760   880   862   904   826
11   9   18   0   0   18   W   819   750   931   877   937   1021   751   889   865   895   835
8   9   18   0   0   18   W   828   768   940   868   928   1030   748   880   856   904   838
10   9   0   0   0   0   L   837   768   931   865   925   1039   739   889   847   895   847
29   9   0   0   0   0   L   846   768   922   874   916   1030   730   880   838   904   856
3   9   0   12   0   12   W   855   780   925   883   925   1039   721   889   829   895   847
27   9   18   0   0   18   W   864   798   934   880   934   1048   712   880   832   886   844
7   9   0   0   0   0   L   873   798   925   871   925   1045   709   877   823   895   841
24   9   0   0   0   0   L   882   798   916   862   916   1036   706   868   820   886   838
13   9   18   0   0   18   W   891   816   925   871   925   1027   697   859   829   877   829
5   9   0   0   0   0   L   900   816   916   862   916   1018   706   862   820   880   820
36   9   0   0   12   12   W   909   828   919                        
5   9   0   0   0   0   L   918   828   910                        
23   9   0   0   0   0   L   927   828   901                        
31   9   0   0   12   12   W   936   840   904                        
17   9   18   0   0   18   W   945   858   913                        
30   9   18   0   0   18   W   954   876   922                        
30   9   18   0   0   18   W   963   894   931                        
23   9   0   0   0   0   L   972   894   922                        
2   9   0   12   0   12   W   981   906   925                        
16   9   0   0   0   0   L   990   906   916                        
11   9   18   0   0   18   W   999   924   925                        
20   9   18   0   0   18   W   1008   942   934                        
31   9   0   0   12   12   W   1017   954   937                        
11   9   18   0   0   18   W   1026   972   946                        
31   9   0   0   12   12   W   1035   984   949                        
0   9   18   0   0   18   W   1044   1002   958                        
33   9   0   0   12   12   W   1053   1014   961                        
0   9   18   0   0   18   W   1062   1032   970                        
28   9   0   0   0   0   L   1071   1032   961                        
21   9   0   0   0   0   L   1080   1032   952                        
25   9   0   0   0   0   L   1089   1032   943                        
19   9   0   0   0   0   L   1098   1032   934                        
32   9   0   0   12   12   W   1107   1044   937                        
23   9   0   0   0   0   L   1116   1044   928                        
15   9   18   0   0   18   W   1125   1062   937                        
11   9   18   0   0   18   W   1134   1080   946                        
3   9   0   12   0   12   W   1143   1092   949                        
25   9   0   0   0   0   L   1152   1092   940                        
36   9   0   0   12   12   W   1161   1104   943                        
16   9   0   0   0   0   L   1170   1104   934                        
8   9   18   0   0   18   W   1179   1122   943                        
15   9   18   0   0   18   W   1188   1140   952                        
9   9   0   0   0   0   L   1197   1140   943                        
17   9   18   0   0   18   W   1206   1158   952                        
8   9   18   0   0   18   W   1215   1176   961                        
4   9   0   0   0   0   L   1224   1176   952                        
31   9   0   0   12   12   W   1233   1188   955                        
21   9   0   0   0   0   L   1242   1188   946                        
36   9   0   0   12   12   W   1251   1200   949                        
37   9   18   0   0   18   W   1260   1218   958                        
22   9   0   0   0   0   L   1269   1218   949                        
36   9   0   0   12   12   W   1278   1230   952                        
18   9   18   0   0   18   W   1287   1248   961                        
24   9   0   0   0   0   L   1296   1248   952                        
22   9   0   0   0   0   L   1305   1248   943                        
35   9   0   0   12   12   W   1314   1260   946                        
27   9   18   0   0   18   W   1323   1278   955                        
36   9   0   0   12   12   W   1332   1290   958                        
36   9   0   0   12   12   W   1341   1302   961                        
10   9   0   0   0   0   L   1350   1302   952                        
37   9   18   0   0   18   W   1359   1320   961                        
27   9   18   0   0   18   W   1368   1338   970                        
28   9   0   0   0   0   L   1377   1338   961                        
33   9   0   0   12   12   W   1386   1350   964                        
2   9   0   12   0   12   W   1395   1362   967                        
7   9   0   0   0   0   L   1404   1362   958                        
37   9   18   0   0   18   W   1413   1380   967                        
16   9   0   0   0   0   L   1422   1380   958                        
35   9   0   0   12   12   W   1431   1392   961                        
16   9   0   0   0   0   L   1440   1392   952                        
30   9   18   0   0   18   W   1449   1410   961                        
9   9   0   0   0   0   L   1458   1410   952                        
12   9   0   0   0   0   L   1467   1410   943                        
14   9   18   0   0   18   W   1476   1428   952                        
17   9   18   0   0   18   W   1485   1446   961                        
18   9   18   0   0   18   W   1494   1464   970                        
24   9   0   0   0   0   L   1503   1464   961                        
1   9   0   12   0   12   W   1512   1476   964                        
25   9   0   0   0   0   L   1521   1476   955                        
24   9   0   0   0   0   L   1530   1476   946                        
1   9   0   12   0   12   W   1539   1488   949                        
28   9   0   0   0   0   L   1548   1488   940                        
36   9   0   0   12   12   W   1557   1500   943                        
34   9   0   0   12   12   W   1566   1512   946                        
16   9   0   0   0   0   L   1575   1512   937                        
12   9   0   0   0   0   L   1584   1512   928                        
33   9   0   0   12   12   W   1593   1524   931                        
3   9   0   12   0   12   W   1602   1536   934                        
10   9   0   0   0   0   L   1611   1536   925                        
30   9   18   0   0   18   W   1620   1554   934                        
35   9   0   0   12   12   W   1629   1566   937                        
33   9   0   0   12   12   W   1638   1578   940                        
21   9   0   0   0   0   L   1647   1578   931                        
11   9   18   0   0   18   W   1656   1596   940                        
9   9   0   0   0   0   L   1665   1596   931                        
29   9   0   0   0   0   L   1674   1596   922                        
8   9   18   0   0   18   W   1683   1614   931                        
2   9   0   12   0   12   W   1692   1626   934                        
0   9   18   0   0   18   W   1701   1644   943                        
33   9   0   0   12   12   W   1710   1656   946                        
27   9   18   0   0   18   W   1719   1674   955                        
11   9   18   0   0   18   W   1728   1692   964                        
20   9   18   0   0   18   W   1737   1710   973                        
9   9   0   0   0   0   L   1746   1710   964                        
2   9   0   12   0   12   W   1755   1722   967                        
11   9   18   0   0   18   W   1764   1740   976                        
15   9   18   0   0   18   W   1773   1758   985                        
9   9   0   0   0   0   L   1782   1758   976                        
26   9   0   0   0   0   L   1791   1758   967                        
7   9   0   0   0   0   L   1800   1758   958                        
1   9   0   12   0   12   W   1809   1770   961                        
15   9   18   0   0   18   W   1818   1788   970                        
18   9   18   0   0   18   W   1827   1806   979                        
23   9   0   0   0   0   L   1836   1806   970                        
30   9   18   0   0   18   W   1845   1824   979                        
21   9   0   0   0   0   L   1854   1824   970                        
33   9   0   0   12   12   W   1863   1836   973                        
18   9   18   0   0   18   W   1872   1854   982                        
8   9   18   0   0   18   W   1881   1872   991                        
23   9   0   0   0   0   L   1890   1872   982                        
3   9   0   12   0   12   W   1899   1884   985                        
20   9   18   0   0   18   W   1908   1902   994                        
24   9   0   0   0   0   L   1917   1902   985                        
9   9   0   0   0   0   L   1926   1902   976                        
15   9   18   0   0   18   W   1935   1920   985                        
5   9   0   0   0   0   L   1944   1920   976                        
36   9   0   0   12   12   W   1953   1932   979                        
35   9   0   0   12   12   W   1962   1944   982                        
18   9   18   0   0   18   W   1971   1962   991                        
19   9   0   0   0   0   L   1980   1962   982                        
33   9   0   0   12   12   W   1989   1974   985                        
2   9   0   12   0   12   W   1998   1986   988                        
30   9   18   0   0   18   W   2007   2004   997                        
13   9   18   0   0   18   W   2016   2022   1006                        
35   9   0   0   12   12   W   2025   2034   1009                        
4   9   0   0   0   0   L   2034   2034   1000                        
23   9   0   0   0   0   L   2043   2034   991                        
33   9   0   0   12   12   W   2052   2046   994                        
6   9   0   0   0   0   L   2061   2046   985                        
20   9   18   0   0   18   W   2070   2064   994                        
1   9   0   12   0   12   W   2079   2076   997                        
29   9   0   0   0   0   L   2088   2076   988                        
29   9   0   0   0   0   L   2097   2076   979                        
31   9   0   0   12   12   W   2106   2088   982                        
6   9   0   0   0   0   L   2115   2088   973                        
5   9   0   0   0   0   L   2124   2088   964                        
4   9   0   0   0   0   L   2133   2088   955                        
6   9   0   0   0   0   L   2142   2088   946                        
22   9   0   0   0   0   L   2151   2088   937                        
32   9   0   0   12   12   W   2160   2100   940                        
25   9   0   0   0   0   L   2169   2100   931                        
20   9   18   0   0   18   W   2178   2118   940                        
10   9   0   0   0   0   L   2187   2118   931                        
23   9   0   0   0   0   L   2196   2118   922                        
9   9   0   0   0   0   L   2205   2118   913                        
32   9   0   0   12   12   W   2214   2130   916                        
16   9   0   0   0   0   L   2223   2130   907                        
14   9   18   0   0   18   W   2232   2148   916                        
26   9   0   0   0   0   L   2241   2148   907                        
29   9   0   0   0   0   L   2250   2148   898   

Editing is very difficult.

If you will do some experiments by yourself require the Original program                     

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on July 28, 2016, 11:38:41 PM
Hey Dobble, how do I enter my Splitfire into your Dobble challenge?  Do I need to generate a certain number of output sessions containing a certain number of spins?

I am assuming that spinning for a trigger will count as actual spins, right?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 29, 2016, 07:37:03 AM
in the dobbelsteen challege I have published the results of my SSB system with Martingale and Grant Martingale for 10 trials of150spins
The trigger is a random sequence of 10 spins. Every spin you must place a bet

When you accept the challenge it should be fair for a honnest comparising,you use the same conditions.

I am very curious for the spitfire permanence.

The results of the Kav bet are for the system without a strategy.These results can be used to develop a strategy
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on July 29, 2016, 10:55:48 AM
Ok well I do not bet every spin but I will count every spin.  I expect I will be crippled by the spin requirement because I use a rigorous trigger.

Ok so 10 trials of 150 spins, got it thanks.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 14, 2016, 02:05:44 PM
The Dobbelsteen Turn Over Point.

The short and long run theory is the basic for a dood roulette system  and method.

All mathematiciens shall agree that all roulettesystems will end in a loss after a lon run session.Now we must know when start a long run. IMO the long run starts if all roulette system events ended with a loss.

The classic table of the France roulette has 157 possibilities to bet. Besides these bets there are sector bets and neighbor bets. On the first sight we have a lot of possibilities. That is not true. In principle there are only 37 odds. This are the so called number bets. The odds are from 1-numberbet to the 37-number bet. All the table or cilinder bets can be brought back to one of these numberbets.
A spli bet is a 2-number bet , a street is a 3-numberbet. a 2 neighbor bet is a 5-number bet, the KAV bet is a 21-number bet etc.

For all these number bets we can statiscal ascertain the point all number bet systems will have a loss.

In my theory this point is the DTOP

Here the Excel program for 34-number bet.

GETAL   INZET   UITBET.   SOM INZ   SOMUITB   W %%
33   34   36   34   2   5,88
36   34   36   68   4   5,88
19   34   36   102   6   5,88
30   34   36   136   8   5,88
27   34   36   170   10   5,88
29   34   36   204   12   5,88
7   34   36   238   14   5,88
16   34   36   272   16   5,88
13   34   36   306   18   5,88
13   34   36   340   20   5,88
13   34   36   374   22   5,88
1   34   0   408   -12   -2,94
10   34   36   442   -10   -2,26
25   34   36   476   -8   -1,68
13   34   36   510   -6   -1,18
25   34   36   544   -4   -0,74
26   34   36   578   -2   -0,35
29   34   36   612   0   0
33   34   36   646   2   0,31
32   34   36   680   4   0,59
4   34   36   714   6   0,84
34   34   36   748   8   1,07
17   34   36   782   10   1,28
31   34   36   816   12   1,47
16   34   36   850   14   1,65
35   34   36   884   16   1,81
0   34   0   918   -18   -1,96
18   34   36   952   -16   -1,68
27   34   36   986   -14   -1,42
18   34   36   1020   -12   -1,18
10   34   36   1054   -10   -0,95
7   34   36   1088   -8   -0,74
3   34   36   1122   -6   -0,53
24   34   36   1156   -4   -0,35
25   34   36   1190   -2   -0,17
3   34   36   1224   0   0
12   34   36   1258   2   0,16
19   34   36   1292   4   0,31
2   34   0   1326   -30   -2,26
14   34   36   1360   -28   -2,06
19   34   36   1394   -26   -1,87
5   34   36   1428   -24   -1,68
29   34   36   1462   -22   -1,5
6   34   36   1496   -20   -1,34
28   34   36   1530   -18   -1,18
35   34   36   1564   -16   -1,02
33   34   36   1598   -14   -0,88
25   34   36   1632   -12   -0,74
13   34   36   1666   -10   -0,6
10   34   36   1700   -8   -0,47
3   34   36   1734   -6   -0,35
4   34   36   1768   -4   -0,23
32   34   36   1802   -2   -0,11
35   34   36   1836   0   0
20   34   36   1870   2   0,11
28   34   36   1904   4   0,21
19   34   36   1938   6   0,31
13   34   36   1972   8   0,41
31   34   36   2006   10   0,5
26   34   36   2040   12   0,59
24   34   36   2074   14   0,68
34   34   36   2108   16   0,76
17   34   36   2142   18   0,84
12   34   36   2176   20   0,92
21   34   36   2210   22   1
4   34   36   2244   24   1,07
19   34   36   2278   26   1,14
21   34   36   2312   28   1,21
17   34   36   2346   30   1,28
33   34   36   2380   32   1,34
7   34   36   2414   34   1,41
31   34   36   2448   36   1,47
2   34   0   2482   2   0,08
3   34   36   2516   4   0,16
31   34   36   2550   6   0,24
36   34   36   2584   8   0,31
24   34   36   2618   10   0,38
5   34   36   2652   12   0,45
4   34   36   2686   14   0,52
13   34   36   2720   16   0,59
26   34   36   2754   18   0,65
4   34   36   2788   20   0,72
5   34   36   2822   22   0,78
13   34   36   2856   24   0,84
11   34   36   2890   26   0,9
35   34   36   2924   28   0,96
31   34   36   2958   30   1,01
2   34   0   2992   -4   -0,13
33   34   36   3026   -2   -0,07
19   34   36   3060   0   0
28   34   36   3094   2   0,06
22   34   36   3128   4   0,13
18   34   36   3162   6   0,19
12   34   36   3196   8   0,25
25   34   36   3230   10   0,31
12   34   36   3264   12   0,37
2   34   0   3298   -22   -0,67
8   34   36   3332   -20   -0,6
15   34   36   3366   -18   -0,53
14   34   36   3400   -16   -0,47
34   34   36   3434   -14   -0,41
31   34   36   3468   -12   -0,35
31   34   36   3502   -10   -0,29
16   34   36   3536   -8   -0,23
3   34   36   3570   -6   -0,17
23   34   36   3604   -4   -0,11
23   34   36   3638   -2   -0,05
21   34   36   3672   0   0
36   34   36   3706   2   0,05
19   34   36   3740   4   0,11
11   34   36   3774   6   0,16
26   34   36   3808   8   0,21
10   34   36   3842   10   0,26
3   34   36   3876   12   0,31
25   34   36   3910   14   0,36
6   34   36   3944   16   0,41
2   34   0   3978   -18   -0,45
22   34   36   4012   -16   -0,4
28   34   36   4046   -14   -0,35
7   34   36   4080   -12   -0,29
3   34   36   4114   -10   -0,24
9   34   36   4148   -8   -0,19
23   34   36   4182   -6   -0,14
5   34   36   4216   -4   -0,09
14   34   36   4250   -2   -0,05
21   34   36   4284   0   0
23   34   36   4318   2   0,05
20   34   36   4352   4   0,09
13   34   36   4386   6   0,14
33   34   36   4420   8   0,18
4   34   36   4454   10   0,22
15   34   36   4488   12   0,27
28   34   36   4522   14   0,31
21   34   36   4556   16   0,35
0   34   0   4590   -18   -0,39
23   34   36   4624   -16   -0,35
3   34   36   4658   -14   -0,3
22   34   36   4692   -12   -0,26
2   34   0   4726   -46   -0,97
6   34   36   4760   -44   -0,92
34   34   36   4794   -42   -0,88
30   34   36   4828   -40   -0,83
33   34   36   4862   -38   -0,78
19   34   36   4896   -36   -0,74
21   34   36   4930   -34   -0,69
22   34   36   4964   -32   -0,64
12   34   36   4998   -30   -0,6
27   34   36   5032   -28   -0,56
32   34   36   5066   -26   -0,51
25   34   36   5100   -24   -0,47
27   34   36   5134   -22   -0,43
1   34   0   5168   -56   -1,08
11   34   36   5202   -54   -1,04
25   34   36   5236   -52   -0,99
4   34   36   5270   -50   -0,95
16   34   36   5304   -48   -0,9
10   34   36   5338   -46   -0,86
34   34   36   5372   -44   -0,82
30   34   36   5406   -42   -0,78
26   34   36   5440   -40   -0,74
21   34   36   5474   -38   -0,69
9   34   36   5508   -36   -0,65
31   34   36   5542   -34   -0,61
16   34   36   5576   -32   -0,57
34   34   36   5610   -30   -0,53
17   34   36   5644   -28   -0,5
34   34   36   5678   -26   -0,46
36   34   36   5712   -24   -0,42
36   34   36   5746   -22   -0,38
17   34   36   5780   -20   -0,35
25   34   36   5814   -18   -0,31
6   34   36   5848   -16   -0,27
27   34   36   5882   -14   -0,24
5   34   36   5916   -12   -0,2
36   34   36   5950   -10   -0,17
24   34   36   5984   -8   -0,13
4   34   36   6018   -6   -0,1
2   34   0   6052   -40   -0,66
17   34   36   6086   -38   -0,62
5   34   36   6120   -36   -0,59
31   34   36   6154   -34   -0,55
24   34   36   6188   -32   -0,52
27   34   36   6222   -30   -0,48
31   34   36   6256   -28   -0,45
4   34   36   6290   -26   -0,41
14   34   36   6324   -24   -0,38
6   34   36   6358   -22   -0,35
25   34   36   6392   -20   -0,31
31   34   36   6426   -18   -0,28
29   34   36   6460   -16   -0,25
0   34   0   6494   -50   -0,77
30   34   36   6528   -48   -0,74
12   34   36   6562   -46   -0,7
23   34   36   6596   -44   -0,67
36   34   36   6630   -42   -0,63
2   34   0   6664   -76   -1,14
27   34   36   6698   -74   -1,1
17   34   36   6732   -72   -1,07
2   34   0   6766   -106   -1,57
0   34   0   6800   -140   -2,06
36   34   36   6834   -138   -2,02
10   34   36   6868   -136   -1,98
28   34   36   6902   -134   -1,94
26   34   36   6936   -132   -1,9
11   34   36   6970   -130   -1,87
31   34   36   7004   -128   -1,83
23   34   36   7038   -126   -1,79
21   34   36   7072   -124   -1,75
3   34   36   7106   -122   -1,72
6   34   36   7140   -120   -1,68
18   34   36   7174   -118   -1,64
4   34   36   7208   -116   -1,61
4   34   36   7242   -114   -1,57
20   34   36   7276   -112   -1,54
13   34   36   7310   -110   -1,5
34   34   36   7344   -108   -1,47
9   34   36   7378   -106   -1,44
7   34   36   7412   -104   -1,4
0   34   0   7446   -138   -1,85
34   34   36   7480   -136   -1,82
33   34   36   7514   -134   -1,78
24   34   36   7548   -132   -1,75
27   34   36   7582   -130   -1,71
20   34   36   7616   -128   -1,68
14   34   36   7650   -126   -1,65
0   34   0   7684   -160   -2,08
15   34   36   7718   -158   -2,05
9   34   36   7752   -156   -2,01
30   34   36   7786   -154   -1,98
26   34   36   7820   -152   -1,94
3   34   36   7854   -150   -1,91
36   34   36   7888   -148   -1,88
15   34   36   7922   -146   -1,84
15   34   36   7956   -144   -1,81
20   34   36   7990   -142   -1,78
26   34   36   8024   -140   -1,74
2   34   0   8058   -174   -2,16
3   34   36   8092   -172   -2,13
8   34   36   8126   -170   -2,09
24   34   36   8160   -168   -2,06
5   34   36   8194   -166   -2,03
25   34   36   8228   -164   -1,99
27   34   36   8262   -162   -1,96
1   34   0   8296   -196   -2,36
20   34   36   8330   -194   -2,33
12   34   36   8364   -192   -2,3
12   34   36   8398   -190   -2,26
22   34   36   8432   -188   -2,23
30   34   36   8466   -186   -2,2
34   34   36   8500   -184   -2,16
20   34   36   8534   -182   -2,13
21   34   36   8568   -180   -2,1
17   34   36   8602   -178   -2,07
11   34   36   8636   -176   -2,04
0   34   0   8670   -210   -2,42
11   34   36   8704   -208   -2,39
21   34   36   8738   -206   -2,36
13   34   36   8772   -204   -2,33
23   34   36   8806   -202   -2,29
4   34   36   8840   -200   -2,26
36   34   36   8874   -198   -2,23
19   34   36   8908   -196   -2,2
25   34   36   8942   -194   -2,17
34   34   36   8976   -192   -2,14
4   34   36   9010   -190   -2,11
36   34   36   9044   -188   -2,08
7   34   36   9078   -186   -2,05
12   34   36   9112   -184   -2,02
29   34   36   9146   -182   -1,99
13   34   36   9180   -180   -1,96
21   34   36   9214   -178   -1,93
27   34   36   9248   -176   -1,9
7   34   36   9282   -174   -1,87
16   34   36   9316   -172   -1,85
33   34   36   9350   -170   -1,82
36   34   36   9384   -168   -1,79
26   34   36   9418   -166   -1,76
27   34   36   9452   -164   -1,74
2   34   0   9486   -198   -2,09
29   34   36   9520   -196   -2,06
22   34   36   9554   -194   -2,03
34   34   36   9588   -192   -2
25   34   36   9622   -190   -1,97
7   34   36   9656   -188   -1,95
13   34   36   9690   -186   -1,92
24   34   36   9724   -184   -1,89
19   34   36   9758   -182   -1,87
25   34   36   9792   -180   -1,84
26   34   36   9826   -178   -1,81
18   34   36   9860   -176   -1,78
29   34   36   9894   -174   -1,76
1   34   0   9928   -208   -2,1
35   34   36   9962   -206   -2,07
3   34   36   9996   -204   -2,04
6   34   36   10030   -202   -2,01
24   34   36   10064   -200   -1,99
29   34   36   10098   -198   -1,96
29   34   36   10132   -196   -1,93
17   34   36   10166   -194   -1,91
28   34   36   10200   -192   -1,88

With the program you can created a lot af sessions.

The conclusion is that sessions of more than 200 spins always ended with a loss. A lot of sessions ended with a loss within 50 spins.

The DTOP is an indicative number of spins.The graph is a 34 example ,not a 4 number bet
 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 15, 2016, 08:36:56 AM
A 37-number bet will lose every spin. This means that 37- number bet systems have  no short run sequence. the long run event start at once.
A 36 -number bet  system can never end with a profit. So there is also no short run event.
The large number bets have no clear DTOP.It is better to difine the turn over point in cycles of 37 spins.
See the graph.

the long run event start mostly in the second and third cycle.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on August 15, 2016, 09:24:49 AM
The pattern looks to be that once the miss spin hits, recovery will NOT regain a new high again before another miss spin hits again.  Therefore it seems to be possible to chart a stop loss based on this event and the subsequent projected recovery.

Maybe I would spin until the miss and then plot 50% recovery and end the session...?

Hey run like 10 of these in a row?

Ok, I have also discovered the "early miss" phenomenon where the "long run event" will hit in the beginning before there is profit.  It would appear the best course of action is to immediately end the session and begin another.

My short-term runs seem to indicate that your results are atypical where a series of early losses will create an unrecoverable situation.  It would appear this strategy is too unbalanced due to the large losses incurred.  I would work towards using less chips to cover the same territory.

I am proposing the following:

6 units on DZ1 & DZ2
3 units on DS 25-30
2 units on corner 31-35

This will create a 17-1 win-loss ratio which is exactly the same as the 34 unit bet but with half the money at risk on each bet.  This way we can at least begin to manage some kind of recovery progression system...

Once the loss hits, I would re-randomize the DS & corner to create the dozens that should be bet (the DS and corner must be in the same dozen) and begin a new session.  If the session ends with a monetary loss then I would begin a new session with raised chip levels.

I think your statistic showing less than 100% recovery subsequent to a loss can be quite valuable as it indicates to us not to push things once a loss has hit; for me to quit at no more than 50% recovery of overall profit.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 15, 2016, 01:03:22 PM
Reyth you are right.Your betting method is the same as a 34 -number bet. It is a 34 numberbet with a 1/2 unit on every straight nummer.That means your method doesnot influence the DTOP.The DTOP is indepent of the number of units bet on the number.
The image shows where the short run turns over in the long run.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on August 15, 2016, 01:12:09 PM
I am sorry, the DTOP sounds like an interesting concept but how do you define it again?

But ya, I just realized it only pays 1 unit where the 34 unit bet paid 2... >.<
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 15, 2016, 08:16:56 PM
Many years ago I have develloped my short and long theory. This theory is based of  a years stuyu of the different random sequences.I could do this only with the help of my excel programs.The only manner to beat the roulette and become a succesful player is a strategy in connection with a roulette system and betting selection.
I agree , on the long run any system will end with a loss. The question is ,what is the long run and when start the long run sequence .
In my opinion the long run sequence is  the sequence all trials or samples has a loss. On the very very long run the loss is similar with the HE .
In other topics I have explained that the short run depends on the odds.
Lone Wolf brought me on the idea to do more study about this phenomenon.
My first discovery is that there are in principle only 37 odds in stead of the more than 157 possibilities of the table.
All these 37 odds have different  short run events.The 37 number bet has no short run sequence and the 1 number bet has a short run over the million.
The crossover point from short to long is the DTOP.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on August 15, 2016, 09:06:05 PM
The only way to affect the DTOP is to raise the chips with a long a progression as possible since we cannot raise the odds any higher because we are betting 34 numbers.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 16, 2016, 08:24:19 AM
The DTOP in generally is indepent of the valid or the number of units per odd.

A mixed bet with an unequal numer of units influences the DTOP. In another reply I will explain that phenomenon.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on August 16, 2016, 02:02:57 PM
O_o woah...
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 20, 2016, 03:40:56 PM
As an example for proving that the DTOP depends on the kind of the betting I will research the next bet.
Suppose you place a 22-numberbet. You place  straight one unit on the numbers 16 -28 and two units on 29-36.
Now you split this wager iito the 22-numberbet 16/32 and the 8-numberbet 29/36
 First I try to determine the DTOP for the 22-number bet.
The computer computes a lot of trials and computes also for each trial the profit percentage.
Here the image of one trial and the profit percentage graphic of 20 trials.

 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 20, 2016, 03:59:15 PM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/2evgfgx.jpg)

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 20, 2016, 04:16:51 PM
I had expected that the DTOp was less than 500 spins>In this 500 sequence the profit percentage waves around the zero ax. the most trials ended with a large loss The average loss ismuch larger than the HE.
I have much troubles with pasting my images in the reply.The diagrams are not the results of a 22-numberbet with 22 units but already the diagrams of the 22-numberbet with a bet of 30 units.
tomorrow I will continu.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 21, 2016, 10:07:06 AM
The 22-numberbet with 30 units can be researched as a 22-numberbet with 22 units and a 8 numberbet with 8 units or a 14 numberbet with 14 units and a 8-numberbet with 16 units. I think that both possibilities will give the same features.
The 22-numberbet with 30 units can be researched as a 22-numberbet with 22 units and a 8 numberbet with 8 units or a 14 numberbet with 14 units and a 8-numberbet with 16 units. I think that both possibilities will give the same features.
Again the past comment doesnot work.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/spxi0g.jpg)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 22, 2016, 08:25:27 PM
(http://i65.tinypic.com/1rwv1w.jpg)

Here the graph of the 22-numberbet

The DTOP is in this graph about 90. All the 20 samples show a large loss.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 30, 2016, 11:53:52 AM
Bayes compares a 1 numberbet with a 30 numberbet.
Without researching this comparison you cannot make conclusions.
I shall  first  analise the 1 numberbet.
I will do it for a 1000 spins sample withfigur 12  as the trigger.Bayes uses $$  and  that is not smart. $$ cannot be programmed so I use units or credits.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 30, 2016, 12:11:47 PM
Here the Exel program and the graphs of the 1000 spin sample of the 1 numberbet
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 30, 2016, 12:24:00 PM
The column g counts the number of hits. The average must be 27. If the number of hits is lower than 27 the sample ends wish a loss. This sample is Always a short run session. THat means the result is unpredictable.
The third diagram shows the results of 20 samples.
The loss percentage shall never be 2,7 %. I wrote it before and many times the house edge  is a myth.

Next time I will analise Bayes 30 numberbet.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 02, 2016, 01:01:33 PM
On the first place I thank you all for the interest in my blog. In 2 days 188 members and guest have visit the blog.More than 35000 views is a great succes.

Now you are curious to see the results of the Bayes 30 numberbet.

To compare the two bets the computer has analyzed a 1000 spins sample. As predictable the diference between the sun of the bets and the sum of the payouts  is very close. See the first diagram.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: YoLo on October 03, 2016, 05:59:12 AM
hi dobbel and reyth and all the persons in this forum, kav also for making a really friendly forum by keep maintain the contents of the thread.. all of you have my respect, many are not to mention, because of your effort and kindness to newbie like me or others by not looking down on their system or strategy, its been a year and a half since my first join in this forum and each day my interest in roulette is getting bigger and bigger, i was so devastated in roulette game cos i always bust up and had very bad days when my house got robbed and years of saving got robbed away and gone, but what happened did not bring me down cos i believe everything happens for a reason. i dont play roulette much now, but i think one day i will start again just to gain a little extra income from it would be nice. i never see or log in to dobbel live roulette cos i live in indonesia, the time does not suit for me, cos i have to make an ends meat for my family in the morning. about reyth 34 numbers bet, is it too dangerous to bet many numbers and the progression will be quite high when lose. what is the bankroll needed and the progression use for this strategy, and what is the stop loss and the profit target for this system. sorry about my grammar or misspell, sometimes i have to check a few times before posting and a few times of reading to really understand the sentences from your posts. best regard from indonesia and terima kasih.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 03, 2016, 08:01:34 AM
Slamat datang on this forum and terima Kasih  kombali.
I started my carreer 60 years ago in Indonesia. It is a very beautful country with a more interested history.
My deceased wife was born in Djati Negara at Djakarta.
Now I am retired and a roulette adict.I hope my elemantary roulette theory can help you to become a succesful rouletteplayer.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 03, 2016, 11:56:44 AM
hi dobbel and reyth and all the persons in this forum, kav also for making a really friendly forum by keep maintain the contents of the thread.. all of you have my respect, many are not to mention, because of your effort and kindness to newbie like me or others by not looking down on their system or strategy,

Thanks I feel the same way!

Quote
its been a year and a half since my first join in this forum and each day my interest in roulette is getting bigger and bigger, i was so devastated in roulette game cos i always bust up

IKR?  Me too!

Nice seeing you post and glad you are here! :D
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 12, 2016, 01:04:22 PM
The live roulette of LeoVegas casino.
This is a first report of my experience on the live roulette of LeoVegas.
You can play on different live roulette games. I had chosen for the European roulette. My impression of the full screen window is good. The software is provided by the NetEnt company from Sweden.
On the left side of the screen your bet, win and balance is showed. On the right side is the history board with the last 14 numbers. In the middle is place for the roulette and the dealer.
The lower half of the screen is destine for the table layout and the handle buttons.
There is a relative long delay between the click of the mouse and showing the fallen number on the history board. The time for placing your bets is very short. I had much troubles to place 10 chips in that short time.
The number of bets is showed after the ball has landed. It is very difficult to correct bad bets. Mistakes are light made. During placing your bets, also grey chips appear on the table.
You are not obliged to play every spin. There is a time to play your own system or strategy. I used the strategy of the dices, the ECs and dozen an columns.
From one session I have noted the bets and the payouts. See the Excel report

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 12, 2016, 09:07:04 PM
How many units max bet?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 12, 2016, 10:45:33 PM
In this session my maximum was 22 and that had to be 20. The bet selection for the DS was 5*2 units and after a loss 5*4 units. With a hit the profit is 20%
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 16, 2016, 04:15:46 PM
So on the SSB (10 back EC system).  It very occasionally (but consistently) fails. 

However, I find this bet selection to be exceptionally strong and so I feel confident that if I take the total catastrophic debt & divide it into 3 sections that I am not likely ever to see a second consecutive failure before I am able to recoup my losses.

For example:

Using a trigger of 2 losses, I have the following sequence:

LLLLLLLL

For a loss of 255 units (worst case scenario with no wins):

255/3=85

Betting 85 units as the base bet, I fully expect to have at least the following:

LLLLLLLW
LLLLLLLW
LLLLLLLW

Where all losses are now recovered.  In order to accomplish this, 21930 units are required (I can bring this down substantially by using a trigger of 3).

Anyway, what is your experience with the catastrophic losses?  How closely together have you ever seen them?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 16, 2016, 05:51:04 PM
In this session my maximum was 22 and that had to be 20. The bet selection for the DS was 5*2 units and after a loss 5*4 units. With a hit the profit is 20%
Was this a hit on the 8th bet Dobbel ?
Total risk of your 10 bets  is 30 units ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 16, 2016, 08:09:41 PM
The total number spins is not noted The note are only the results of the bets. There are 15 bets  and the number of losses is  and 41 hits.

Sceb I do not know what you mean with the 8th bet and the total risk. If you play the game of the dices with a bet on 5 sites of the dice you need 6 W against one L
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 16, 2016, 09:08:34 PM

I just completed 280 coups using the SSB system and a trigger of two losses to start the betting. 

Entering recovery twice, I was able to double my money (table bankroll) in only a few hours.  When you said that the failure rate is low enough to allow one to recoup their debt in between failures, that made an impression upon my mind that I never have forgotten.  Its only now that I have taken the time to seriously investigate it.

I think a possible convenient trigger to bring the total bank balance down may be 4 losses which requires a 6 step marty:

1 2 4 8 16 32

For a total cost of 63 units.  This can be managed with 7 sets containing 4 sections 8 coups each to make it self funding from the winnings starting with the 3rd set. There are 224 coups in total.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 16, 2016, 09:13:38 PM
The total number spins is not noted The note are only the results of the bets. There are 15 bets  and the number of losses is  and 41 hits.

Sceb I do not know what you mean with the 8th bet and the total risk. If you play the game of the dices with a bet on 5 sites of the dice you need 6 W against one L
[/quote

I was thinking that you bet 10 spins of DS with 2 chips on the first 5 spins and 4 chips on the next 5 spins if the first 5 lost. Until a win within the ten spins.
I don't understand what you are doing here. A mix of DS.Ec or sometimes one and sometimes the other.
Nor do I understand how you can have 15 bets with 41 hits.
I am seeking clarification.

Reyth
Back to Pally and Harry's "Range " ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 17, 2016, 01:22:12 AM
Hey Scep, right now I am pretty hot on Dobble's 10 back system; it has a true edge because of the length of the pattern being required to repeat -- I have found it 6 times more effective than simply betting an EC ten times successively.

I am looking to take 127 units and turn it into 1764 units though a series of two sets of 7 Sessions which consist of 7 Sections of 12 coups each.

I am using a trigger of 3 virtual losses to keep the bankroll requirement down and playing all of the 3 EC's, betting up to 2 at any one time. 

To accomplish this action, a total bankroll of 11176 units is required to recover the losses from a catastrophic failure.

Code: [Select]
Real Money Journal

Day 1 Balance: +84 units
Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete
Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 12 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 12 Complete

Notes: 4 threats, 3 very serious but no catastrophic failure.  They all seemed to be surrounding the R/B EC...  This served to remind me strongly about Dobble's Short Run TheoryTM and so I was sure to reset the session.

Day 2 Balance: +168 units
Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete
Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 8 Complete

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE (12 Red in a row)

43X for 3 wins:

BLACK Loss
BLACK Loss
BLACK WIN #1

EVEN Loss
EVEN WIN #2

HIGH WIN #3

Section E1: 4 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 12 Complete

Notes: WOW!  First failure with real money.  Having a large balance in combination with a very strong bet selection, makes recovery a smooth process.

Day 3 Balance: +252 units
Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE (12974)

[PLACING MAX BET OF 102 UNITS]

ODD Loss
EVEN (204) Win

Down 25 units 25X for 1 win

HIGH Loss(25)
HIGH Loss(50)
HIGH Loss(100)
HIGH Win

Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 12 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 12 Complete
Notes: Can't believe there was a second one but with a large enough bankroll, there is no fear.  Also wanted to note that I am running circles around my previous attempt at using this MM strategy because this bet selection requires FOUR TIMES the number of coups because we are risking 63 units instead of 15.

Day 4 Balance: +336 units
Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete
Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 12 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 12 Complete
Notes: Finally some peace and quiet!  This is the equivalent of over a week in my other attempt.

Day 5 Balance: +420 units
Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete
Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 10 Complete

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE

(PLACING MAX BET OF 13158/127=103 units)

BLACK (103) Win

Down 24 units, 24X for 1 win

ODD (24) Loss
ODD (48) Loss
EVEN (96) Win

Section F1: 2 Complete
Section E: 12 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 12 Complete
Notes: 

Day 6 Balance: +504 units

Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete
Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 12 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 12 Complete
Notes: Ahhh, finally some rest and relaxation...

Day 7 Balance: +588 units

Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete
Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 12 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 12 Complete
Notes: 1 week in the can!

Ok so now for Week 2 where I double my stake, continuing my quest to turn 127 units into 1764 units.  Now I can only bet 1 EC at a time.

Day 8 Balance: 91

Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 11 Complete

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE (13535)

(Placing max bet of 13280/255=52) <=== error should be 127

LOW (52) Loss
HIGH (104) Win

(Placing max bet of 13332/127=104)

EVEN (104) Win

Down 99 units 99X for 1 win

BLACK (99) Loss
RED (198) Loss
BLACK (396) Loss
BLACK (792) Loss
RED (1584) Win

Section B1: 1 Complete
Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 2 Complete

CATASTROHPIC FAILURE (#2!) [13590]

(Placing max bet of 13335/127=105 units)

EVEN (105) Loss
ODD (210) Win

(Placing max bet of 13440/127=105 units) <=== higher risk due to limited balance

BLACK (105) Win

Down 45 units 45X for 1 win

ODD (45) Loss
ODD (90) Win

Section E1: 8 Complete

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE (#3!!!) [13681]

(Placing max bet of 13426/127=105 units)

EVEN (105) Loss
ODD (210) Loss
ODD (420) Loss
EVEN (840) Loss
ODD (1680) Loss
EVEN (3360) Loss
EVEN (6720) Loss (!!!)

Section F:
Section G:
Notes: Wow, I don't know what to say here... Kind of floored that I actually witnessed this...

I am going to pull the actual spins to verify that I was betting correctly:

And as I suspected, my tracker was buggy and was suggesting totally messed up bets....

Here is the output from the first failure:

16 9 32 27 0 31 10 27 26 24

Bet EVEN (1)
3
Bet ODD (2)
18
BET EVEN (4)
27
BET EVEN [8]
5
BET EVEN (16)
15
BET EVEN (32)
21
BET EVEN (64)
12
BET ODD (128)

Just the red bolded alone is wrong.  The 10th back number is 16 and therefore the bet should be BLACK,HIGH,ODD.  Betting EVEN here is obviously wrong.  And its not suggesting the opposite bet either because the next bet suggestion is ODD and the 10th back number is 9 which should be BLACK,HIGH,EVEN -- so obviously these bets hold no statistical weight.

I have made a new tracker and have thoroughly debugged it.  I am starting again:

Code: [Select]
Day 1 Balance: +84 units
Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete
Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 12 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 12 Complete
Notes: No serious threats.  Hit 16 on the progression a few times.  This is how 4500:1 is supposed to look, I guess...

Day 2 Balance: +168 units
Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete
Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 12 Complete
Section F: 6 Complete

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE 125.50

(Placing max bet of 12423/127=97 units)

ODD (97) Loss
ODD (194) Loss
ODD (388) Win

Down 30 units 30X for 1 win

LOW (30) Win

Section F1: 6 Complete
Section G: 12 Complete
Notes: So far the only noticeable difference is that so far there has only been 1 sequence that made it as far as 64 in the progression and only 2 that made it as far as 32 whereas multiple of these would normally be seen daily.

Day 3 Balance: +252 units
Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 6 Complete

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE [12620]

(Placing max bet 12493/127=98 units)

LOW (98) Win

Down 29 units 29X for 1 win

HIGH (29) Win

Section B1: 6 Complete
Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 12 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 10 Complete

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE (#2!) [12684]

(Placing max bet of 12557/127=98 units)

ODD (98) Loss
EVEN (196) Win

Down 29 units 29X for 1 win

HIGH (29) Win

Section G1: 2 Complete
Notes: Also had 2 assaults on 64 in addition to the 2 failures in a single day.  Definitely not liking how this is appearing but only thing to do is keep going and watching the output.

Day 4 Balance: +336 units
Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete
Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 12 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 12 Complete
Notes: All quiet on the western front.  Let's see how long this lasts...

Also wanted to note that there is an alternative betting method to vanquishing the debt in one or two chunks.  127 units can be regained in about 1.5 days (84+43) without having any increase in betting amount.  That would mean that maybe only a balance say of 381 (127x3) could suffice to cover the rare 2 failures within 1-2 days?

One thing I can do is reverse engineer the two weeks here and see how we would have done with various bank amounts.

Day 5 Balance: +420 units
Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete
Section C: 5 Complete

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE [12799]

(Placing max bet of 12672/127=99 units)

ODD (99) Win

Down 28 units 28X for 1 win

HIGH (28) Loss
LOW (56) Win

Section C1: 7 Complete
Section D: 8 Complete

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE (#2!) [12813]

(Placing max bet of 12687/127=99 units)

HIGH (99) Loss
HIGH (198) Win

Down 27 units 27X for 1 win

LOW (27) Loss
HIGH (54) Loss
LOW (108) Win

Section D1: 4 Complete
Section E: 12 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 12 Complete
Notes: Wow, 2 in one day, I don't even...

I think its clear that it isn't safe to try and flat bet the debt over 1.5 days.  So far I haven't seen 2 catastrophic failures within a single Section and so I think that may be the safest way.

A Section is 12 bets and so 127/12=11 (rounding up).  (11*127)+127=1524 as a minimum bankroll requirement.  Highest base bet using this system is 704/1408/2816/5632 units.  Of course we don't have to actually go out to Week 4 for 5632 units max bet, we can go up to Week 2 and start over for instance.

Using this bankrolll amount, I can go out to the full 4 weeks where I turn 127 units into 4704 units in just 28 days!

Day 6 Balance: +504 units
Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete
Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 12 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 12 Complete
Notes: Based on the pattern so far, I am expecting a catastrophic failure tomorrow and towards the early side of the day...

Day 7 Balance: +588 units
Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete
Section C: 12 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 2 Complete

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE [129.58]

(Placing max bet 12831/127=101 units)

RED (101) Loss
RED (202) Loss
BLACK (404) Loss
RED (808) Win

Down 26 units 26X for 1 win

EVEN (26) Win

[continuing interrupted bet @ 32 units in progression]

ODD (32) Win

Section E1: 10 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 12 Complete
Notes:  Well I guess it ended up coming towards then end of the Day then...

Week 2 begins now and I double my stake.

Day 8
Section A: 12 Complete
Section B: 12 Complete
Section C: 9 Complete

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE [13092]

(Placing max bet of 12837/127=101 units)

ODD (101) Win

(Placing max bet of 12938/127=101 units) <=== increased risk

BLACK (101) Win

Down 53 units 53X for 1 win

LOW (53) Win

Section C1: 3 Complete
Section D: 12 Complete
Section E: 12 Complete
Section F: 12 Complete
Section G: 8 Complete

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE [13194] error +127= [13321]

*** IMPLEMENTING 12 BET SAFETY TREE ***

Down 127/12=11 <=== error 255 units down, corrected below

LOW (11) Win #1
EVEN (11) Win #2
BLACK (11) Loss
RED (22) Win #3
EVEN (11) Win #4
LOW (11) Win #5
BLACK (11) Win #6
EVEN (33) Loss
EVEN (66) Win #7
BLACK (33) Loss
BLACK (66) Loss
RED (132) WIN #8
HIGH (33) WIN #9
BLACK (33) WIN #10
EVEN (33) Loss
ODD (66) Loss
ODD (132) Loss
ODD (264) Loss
EVEN (528) Loss

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE (#2!)

(Placing max bet 12242/127=96 units)

ODD (96) Win

(Max 97)

LOW (97) Loss
LOW (194) Loss
LOW (388) Loss
HIGH (776) Loss
HIGH (1552) Loss
HIGH (3104) Loss

Desperation bet...

HIGH (6208) Loss <=== here I was stuck at the 13th bet which should have been the 16th bet if a trigger had been used.

Here I switched betting methods trying to bet up front instead of using a trigger but shortening the progression instead.  This has disasterous results because when bad session shows up my recovery is forced to operate at a lower percentage chance of a win because the consecutive losses are less.

Not to mention the use of triggers really wrecks the natural benefits of this bet selection.  See my post several pages hence (http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=177.msg17140#msg17140) when I document the difference.  Here we expect a catastrophic loss each "day" (within every 84 coups) but using the natural method (without triggers) I have had 1275 coups in a row with NO LOSS EVENT.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 17, 2016, 01:13:44 PM
Good for you Reyth
A few  observations though.
You are not betting a 10 step but a seven step and so betting a "range". And with any progression I think the risk/ return ratio is too high. Certainly too high for me !
I don't agree that you have created an Edge. I see no difference- mathwise  - between 10 Straight colours and a mixture of colours. 
6 times more effective might mean only variance at play.
 Turning 63 units into 1764 is great in my book until you factor in a potential loss of 11176 units.
Risking a lot for  lots of littles most certainly does not appeal to me.......appals me is a more apt expression. 
Still- each to his own so Good Luck.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 17, 2016, 01:46:01 PM
I don't agree that you have created an Edge. I see no difference- mathwise  - between 10 Straight colours and a mixture of colours. 
6 times more effective might mean only variance at play.

I ran actual trials.  10 bets on an EC is around 1 in 750 whereas betting that an existing 10 EC's will not directly repeat is more like 1 in 4500.  This is where I get my figures and it is not variance but statistical output.

 
Quote
Turning 63 units into 1764 is great in my book until you factor in a potential loss of 11176 units.

True but that risk only takes place immediately after a catastrophic loss of significant rarity with the wheel that is primed in a state to kick out immediate profits.  Its almost as if I am actually waiting for that catastrophic loss so I can dig in and make money -- as if the catastrophic loss is actually a trigger!

(https://media.giphy.com/media/l41YgdgP5Ia4niY4U/giphy.gif)

Also I want to point out that unless it occurs within the first two days, I actually don't NEED to pull out the big guns because I am still showing an overall profit!

Quote
Risking a lot for  lots of littles most certainly does not appeal to me

It is the way that I am risking it that matters to me.  If you have a more reliable bet selection that can create a reliable income, I would be glad to investigate using it.  From your posts, I get the feeling that you play recreationally which I think is great but we are approaching the wheels from different angles.

As far as your nine blocks, I think an interesting line of approach would be the max successive losses limit.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 17, 2016, 02:43:29 PM
Reyth
Different trials might produce different results .
Catastrophic losses do occur in gambling.
I do play recreationally but I try to avoid losses and am more cautious than most bettors.
As for revealing my bet selection I agree with Dr Talos an Pally . No one should reveal any worthwhile method for fear of killing the Golden Goose.
This forum is full of different  ideas so many of us look at the wheel from different angles.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 17, 2016, 07:18:51 PM
Hey Dobble, I was wondering how many coups do you play in your session, is it 100?  I am certain your session is designed to qualify as a short run, right?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 17, 2016, 08:32:15 PM
I do not understand everything and figures.
The Original SSB uses a 10 step random sequence of an EC The 10step bets is based on the Dutch tabellimit of 10 times double up the lost input. On the French roulette the zero is an advantage.  You note the zero as a lost EC.  The program gives a profit of about 45% of the played spins.
 If you start the betting after a virtual loss, the profit per session is lower and also athe risk of a catostophic bust.
In practice I use a virtual loss of two spins , when I play SSB for the dozens and collumns. This trigger occurs very much.

I have the impression , scepticus has never studied the Excel program.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 17, 2016, 08:48:50 PM
What is the short run for the SSB system?  How many coups do you play in a session?

If I don't play with virtual losses (trigger) I will be on the hook for 1023 units when the catastrophic loss occurs; with my trigger of 3 losses I am only having a loss of 127 units which is much more manageable?

Also, with this money management system, even when the catastrophic loss hits I am still in overall profit because the system is self funding after the first 2 days.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 18, 2016, 07:58:37 AM
A 10 spins random occurence has 512 possibilities. With the theory of Bayes I have compute, how many spins you need on average for all these 10-rows. See some replies back. After every hit the betting start with a new 10-row trigger. I have the feeling that this avoid an abandon with the catastrophic variance.

Every session is a short run session. This system will never come in a continu loss situation. The DTOP is more than 1M spins
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 18, 2016, 03:57:00 PM
You are right Dobbelsteen. I have never looked at your Excel programme . Nor am I likely to because I consider your SSB much too simplistic.  There is no real thinking behind it .
It is blindingly obvious  that it WILL win more often than not but it is the possibility  of  one catastrophic loss that scares me and it should also scare off any other sensible bettor - and probably has .
I also think your thinking is loose in some other aspects.

As Reyth has gently pointed out a 10 steps progression is 1024 units ( 1023 with the first bet being 1 unit.)
Le Partage is a loss so is not a benefit  except in  regard to betting two adjacent dozens or the 38 number wheel.
I think that this is   the first time that you have said that you bet only 8 steps with the first two being virtual bets. This suggests that you also think a ten steps is too dangerous.

If, however , you  do make a 45% profit then clearly I am wrong - and  I admit it .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 18, 2016, 04:10:49 PM
I think Dobble said he uses 2 virtual bets when he uses DZ/COL betting instead of EC's and there if I recall correctly, he is beting 2 dozen or columns.

I am very aware of the catastrophic failure and Dobble has always said that it happens but what has very strongly attracted me to this method is the fact that it is over 5 times more effective than simply betting an EC 10 times. 

Like you have been saying in another thread, our bet selection is so important and with this MM method, I need the best bet selection I can find.

The H-P Range technique works but I have found that unless you stick with a single BET SELECTION TYPE, we don't enjoy the same statistical advantages; i.e. if we experience a failure in DS1/31 we can't go off and start betting on DS7/13 to make the recovery and expect the same statistical protection as if we remained on DS1/31 -- same thing with DZ and EC.

Also, I want to say that I have found this bet selection to be profound in its way of dealing with the random flow; I love observing how it twists and turns under pressure to trap the win.  One way of putting it is that it is "counter-intuitive". :D
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 18, 2016, 04:46:12 PM
I don't think so reyth.
He talks about a ten steps random row . I think he is referring to ECs.
My main objection to many of the claims in this forum is that they give the  impression that winning at roulette is easy. All you need  do is this , that and the other and, bingo, you can win thousands of dollars.Euros whatever .  If only  it were that easy
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 18, 2016, 05:29:48 PM
Well I agree with that -- unless we have a method of dealing with the catastrophic loss, I would be rather discouraged.

I have a method of dealing with it -- 17 EC's repeating itself -- the odds there are likely more than 1M to 1!  I need to verify that but it will be significantly more than a simple streak of 17 EC's and probably in the ratio of around 75:450.

On his 2 virtual bets, I have been present during his video casts where he demonstrates betting the dozens and columns.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 18, 2016, 06:31:17 PM
Why does he use virtual bets in Dons and Columns and not his Ecs. ?
Why can't he make his views clear  in HIS thread in this forum. Are we so stupid that we cannot understand the spoken word ?. Why must we be shown " pictures " to understand ?
Most virtual bets are made to lessen the cost while mine's are  "introductions" .
Using them to lessen the cost is  AT THE RISK of missing out on 1 or 2 wins.
I am not opposed to anyone using them so long as they understand the risk involved.
Gambling is a risky venture and newcomers should not be swayed by tales of it being easy.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 18, 2016, 06:37:02 PM
Ya, he mentioned that a trigger will cause less winnings while the risk of the catastrophic loss remains the same.

I believe the reason he triggers the DZ/CL's is due to the increased cost.

I agree it was not easy to learn what Dobble was doing and I don't believe I have learned "it all" but I have discovered that his SSB does have an actual edge over simple streak EC betting and besides you can't expect someone to just give out everything on a silver platter -- I mean you understand what I mean because you don't reveal the advanced methods concerning your 9 block either... :P

There is a very profound aspect of this 10 back strategy when the random flow is turned against itself to increase the odds of winning -- I find this quite unique and actually desperately necessary as everything else I have tried in roulette gets shoved back in my face as a failure.  Its like we have to be so subtle and clever to increase our odds, being brutish or obvious about it just simply won't work.

This method of betting is so amazing.  For example, what if we took a sequence of 30 spins and used the Carsch Star (2 wins in a row for a coup unless no losses present)?  Or what about using a longer than 10 sequence and the Fibonacci progression?  What about a sequence of 50 spins and the D'Alembert?  Because there is a genuine edge and this system is a sort of "EC prediction method", why not try the Paroli?

I think there is huge potential here.  Its like we are so used to making our bet selections based on the last spun number...

This where the following statement shines with roulette wisdom:

Serious gamblers do not bet based on the results of a single spin. -- Dobbelsteen
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 18, 2016, 07:06:33 PM
I agree with dobbelsteen when he says that

Serious gamblers do not bet based on the results of a single spin. -- Dobbelsteen
but Reyth
The use of" triggers" in most cases  IS to reduce the cost.
I don't expect him to give out everything on a silver platter but that is what he IS doing in his SSB demonstration or are you saying that his demonstration is not "telling the truth and only the truth ? "
The maths don't support your contention that his SSB programme gives the bettor an Edge. A true Edge does not need a progression.
As for having everything you have tried being shoved back in your face. Join the clan ! My experience is similar  !
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 18, 2016, 07:48:54 PM
Scepticus It is very difficult to discus SSB as the opponent has not study the project. I wrote about dozens and you answer with ECs. You can not find on any forum that I claim SSB is a HG. The main feature is that you can play contnuous.After every hit you can play a new trial without waiting. The catastrophic row is after a event of 20 ECs. Inspite SSB is a system, it uses triggers.

My Excel program is free available. Power point presentatie on the forum. Several demos on internet. What can I do more to share my knowledge and experience.
This weekend I had three requires for the program from all over the world.

The word edge is used in wrong contects. I never write about the edge There is not a clear word in Dutch for edge.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 18, 2016, 08:55:44 PM
Dobbel
An Edge simply means " A mathematical Advantage "
When you claim that you win 45% you are being confusing. . Do you mean 45% profit or 45% of your bets  If  profit the that IS the HG.
I did think you were referring to ECs because you  keep referring to ECs.You even mention them in your last post- don't you ? How do ECs affect your dozen and columns.
Continuous play has no bearing on the efficiency of a system.
The SSB system dates back to the 1929 depression and so is well known. So why does everyone not use it if not because of the risk.
Mathematically speaking there is no difference between 10/20 RED/ Black and your SSB. so your view is simplistic.
You need to be clearer when you are discussing EC and when you are discussing Ds and Cs.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 19, 2016, 02:50:27 AM
Ok starting with a mixture of the 10 back prediction method & the D'Alembert/Kitchen Martingale.  I will be using the 4 week MM strategy.

My goal is to generate my first profit of 1500 units in 4 Sessions consisting of 7 Sections of 10 coups each.  I am using a bankroll of 15,000 units to cover any variance along the way.

Day 1 generating...
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 19, 2016, 08:17:39 AM
Scepticus the house edge is based on mathematic and is depended of the input.Inside bets have a HE of 2,7%, the ECs have a HE of 1,35% and the HE of a mixed bet is between 1,35% and 2,7%. In Dutch edge means only advantage or benefit. AP players claim a non mathematical edge.
Don`t confuse HE and Expected Value.

SSB can be played most succesful with the ECs. SSB can also be played with the columns and dozens.

On this forum I have described also systems for the other possibilities as Streets and double Streets.

Where did you discover, SSB has designed in 1929. I was born in 1935 !!!

Explain 10/20 RED/Black.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 19, 2016, 01:35:43 PM
You are being patronising  , dobbelsteen, when you tell me the House Edge is based on Maths because most members here already know that. The HE is also 2.7% on Even- Money bets too. The 1.3% is a concession by SOME casinos.It is not generally available in the USA for example. I was not talking about EV but HE.
Your SSB means only that the previous 10 occurrences will  not recur in the same order over the next 10 occurrences.   Or am I wrong ? As you are looking for only ONE in that ten, however, I think the probability is less than 1 in 126.Furthermore, it is just as logical to claim that one WILL occur in the same position within your 10 spins - and your use of a progression seems to support that.
You were born in 1935 and I was born in 1930 but our readings of the History of Roulette will have been different . If I had noted everything I have read and heard about roulette I could have written an encyclopedia !
Whatever age we are, Dobbelsteen, we should not presume to be more knowledgeable than anyone younger than ourselves .We  simply cannot know all that there is to know about roulette or anything else for that matter. We are entitled to state what we DO know and I admit that I get annoyed by AP when they claim that their's is THE ONLY WAY !  You and I have lived in the REAL world of casino gambling while they indulge mainly in theory. REALITY beats THEORY  !
p.s
10/20 Red/Black means you base your next ten on the previous ten which can be red or black so 10 plus 10 is 20.
You still don't say whether your winnings are 45% of your bets. Nor do you explain how a ten-step progression has only  512  possibilities.
Nor should you claim that yours is a better method than any other because you simply cannot know  all others because some, like Pally. Dr Talos and myself are not prepared to tell them here. AND  WE DON'T HAVE THE SAME APPROACH  ! It really does depend on your perspective - how you look at things.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 20, 2016, 08:23:03 AM
Scepticus I fully respect you  and your contribution on this forum.
Our approach of the roulette game is different. I am a researcher and trust the output of my computer.

Augustus 02 2015 we have discussed the HE of the French roulette. It doesnot matter, you do not agree with my explanation. On the home page yyou can read a very interested paper, that the HE is a myth. In my paper about the DTOP I have explained ,why the HE is a myth.

The triangle of Blaise Pascal tells us that a 10 step EC row has 512 possible flows.

The explanation of the triangle of BP, you can find in this blog.

I never state that the profit of SSB is 45% Your interpretation is false. In the topic My Challenge I have published the research and the results of a large number of 140 spins samples.The average  profit percentage is about 45 % of the number of spins. Computers do not lie!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 20, 2016, 02:38:57 PM
I think the difference between us, Dobbelsteeen, is that I deal in ideas while , like many here ,you  deal in  researching past spins .
I think  that  the members here want ideas or research results that can be applied in the real life situation of risking money at the roulette table. I took your 45% win ratio to mean that you actually did win that when actually betting and thought that extremely unlikely.
When actually betting Pascal's triangle for TEN spins then you risk losing 1023 chips so you must be betting only 9 spins which requires 512 chip. The  way that you put  it gave the impression that you bet 10 spins . Pascal' s Triangle DOES suggest that the first bet ( or first 2 ? ) need to be virtual bets..
  - - -1 - - -
 - - 1-1 - -

Only ONE choice there isn't there ?
The HE exists because the House gives unfair odds .As gamblers we are aware of it but do not accept that it means that the House MUST win .When betting only one number then over 37 spins the bettor should lose his bankroll because - in each spin, the House has a Edge of 2.7% and 37 x 2.7% =100%.
This happens in Theory but not in practice so they invent The Long Run to justify their theory !
Computers don't lie Dobbel, but sometimes it is a case of Rubbish In - Rubbish OUT .
Your input is not rubbish but I don't think researching prior spins are the way to go.
As you say we have different approaches and at least we have the balls to express them !
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 21, 2016, 11:04:50 AM
Playing in my B&M casino, I use the performance of the last 50 spins to make my bet decisions.

From the past, we can learn and the future is unknown.

SSB is not based on the past. You can compare SSB with a lottery. The lottery has 512 possibilities. Suppose the last number is 315 and now you bet one unit that the next number is not 315. Number 222 is fallen and you win one unit. The next bet is that 222 not will repeat. Number 450 is fallen and you win one unit again. You win every hit  one unit. The differnce withthe EC of the roulette is, that every trial consist in 10 random occurrences. That is the reason that the profit is about 45%

You can wager this endless. This is not a holy grail, because a repeater can occur.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 21, 2016, 12:01:12 PM
 @Scepticus,  don't get confused with HE.
 It's there for everybody, AP, nonAP.
 It's simply payment for a bet wich is unfair. Do not matter if you bet single number or multiple ( EC for example). As long as they pay 35:1 for your number, it exists.
    Other thing is if player can overcome this HE with his method, don't matter how player actually does it.
   
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 21, 2016, 12:14:12 PM
@MrPerfect, In Europe we use only the one zero roulette with or without the La Partage rule.
If you have the choise between the AR or the ER, you are a donkey when you play the double zero wheel.
  Playing the French roulette the ECs have 1,35% advantage on the other odds
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 21, 2016, 01:13:32 PM
@MrPerfect, In Europe we use only the one zero roulette with or without the La Partage rule.
If you have the choise between the AR or the ER, you are a donkey when you play the double zero wheel.
  Playing the French roulette the ECs have 1,35% advantage on the other odds
Dobblesteen, here in London,  majority of wheels are one zero. However , one of my favorite wheels here has doble zero and very stable drop point. Its a wheel where l do go to play table ditectly without help of betting terminal.
   I would really consider myself donkey if l would miss such an opportunity ;).
   I'm able to " elminate " from the game +/- 18 pokets around 80% of the trials.... one more poket or one less do not really make a difference in this case. Sometimes it's not really about zeroes, you know...
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Sputnik on October 21, 2016, 02:28:04 PM

 @ dobbelsteen i read the last three post - if i understand it correct you look at the last 50 trails with your example and clustering them into sequense of 10 trails each and bet with or against does random bits - is that correct?

I ask as i been looking into random against random many times and can not say i have solve the puzzel. Personally i have been playing around with that not reaching 4.5 or 5.0 SD using Cut Point Methodology.

Then i see it like this ... if i have 30 past trails and get the next 30 trails with only singles and series of two with oppisite or same formations - then i should have 60 trails with singles and series of two - doubbel so much ... feel strange thinking like that but that is my conclusion.
And my target was one single serie of Three with oppisite or same formation once during does 30/60 trails.

Is there a error in that kind of way using random bits dobbelsteen ?

Cheers 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 21, 2016, 03:35:21 PM
When betting only one number then over 37 spins the bettor should lose his bankroll because - in each spin, the House has a Edge of 2.7% and 37 x 2.7% =100%.

scep, betting 1 unit per spin you would expect to lose 1 unit of your bankroll on average, not 100% of it. I think that's what you meant.

Quote
This happens in Theory but not in practice so they invent The Long Run to justify their theory !

The theory isn't wrong or invented, but you haven't included variance in the equation.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 21, 2016, 03:38:32 PM
I would also like to read a clear description of Dobble's method. I thought it was just betting the opposite of the last 10 outcomes (ECs) with a martingale. But now he says he looks at the last 50 outcomes...  :-\
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 21, 2016, 04:04:58 PM
@Scepticus,  don't get confused with HE.
 It's there for everybody, AP, nonAP.
 It's simply payment for a bet wich is unfair. Do not matter if you bet single number or multiple ( EC for example). As long as they pay 35:1 for your number, it exists.
    Other thing is if player can overcome this HE with his method, don't matter how player actually does it.

I think I have previously said that the HE is only the unfair odds on offer so I don't need  being educated on that point. Mr. P

I agree that by using progressions a player IS LIKELY to win MANY times  but I think he needs to win more  than he is prepared to lose before he can claim that it is a winnng method.

Iwas making two points
1 )
No matter what you choose  there is a direct opposite .

)
Progressions do not , in themselves guarantee success and manipulation of them does not change that.
Lessening the progressions reduces any loss and so I think, the way to go if you are using a progression. Too many focus on reward  with little regard to risk which , to my mind , is the wrong way round.

I thought dobbel was talking about actual betting but it seems that he was indulging in theory. As he says he waits for two virtual bets before actually betting real money and that is different from his theory.
Most members in the   forum use progressions so I am very much in the minority but , as you say, it doesn't matter  how   we bet so long  as we profit.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 21, 2016, 04:27:29 PM
 
When betting only one number then over 37 spins the bettor should lose his bankroll because - in each spin, the House has a Edge of 2.7% and 37 x 2.7% =100%.

scep, betting 1 unit per spin you would expect to lose 1 unit of your bankroll on average, not 100% of it. I think that's what you meant.

Quote
This happens in Theory but not in practice so they invent The Long Run to justify their theory !

The theory isn't wrong or invented, but you haven't included variance in the equation.

Not really, Bayes.
If you face a disadvantage of 2.7% on every spin then in 37 spins you SHOULD , in theory, lose 37 x 2.7% which is 100% of the amount bet .If not, what does a 2.7% disadvantage mean?  If you bet $100 on each of 37 spins you SHOULD lose $2.70 on each spin.37 times $2.7 is $ 99.90 ?

As we gamblers know the theoretical  loss does not always operate in practice. Or so we HOPE !
As for variance . I have read no statement of the HE that includes variance and I have said before that
variance can destroy any theory about roulette.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 21, 2016, 09:51:41 PM
Sorry when I am not every time clear in my explanation.
With my researchof many years standing I have develloped the long and short run theory
 This theory learns that the He is a myth. Every player session is a short run trial. The result of a short run trial of a system can be positive or negative. A trial longer than the DTOP ended always with a loss. From this point of view only a system with a strategy has possibility to end with a profit

I have designed systems and strategies foor  the ECs, the dozens, the columns the Streets, the double Streets and the numbers. In my blog you can find the explanatios of SSB for ECs and dozens/columns..
The game of the dices and the 36 strategy must be well known.

The Multi Roulette in my B&M casino is my favorite roulette device. The computer terminal shows the stats of the last 50 spins and the billboard the last 20 numbers. I observe 4 tables. That means that at any time a table show a trigger to bet.

Switching from one table to another an watcher can`t understand what I am wagering.

Everybody is invited to watch my demos on internet.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on October 22, 2016, 12:04:29 AM
Reply to scepticus -

If you face a disadvantage of 2.7% on every spin then in 37 spins you should, in theory, lose 37 x
2.7% which is 100% of the amount bet.

Sorry Scep but your "math" seems out by a very, very large margin.
if you bet $100 for each of 37 spins, you have bet $3,700 and the $99.9 you lose is still 2.7% of what
you have bet.
eg. if you bet 1 number for $100 dollars 37 times, need to start with $3,700 and if variance is zero you
will win one time and end up with $3,600 which is your money back less 2.7%.

But I agree with you 100% about the variance - that is the real enemy !

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 22, 2016, 02:25:18 AM
 Why variance enemy? It's the only thing that permit system players to win from time to time...
  If it didn't existed, life would be very simplified for AP,but for system player it would be a nemesis.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on October 22, 2016, 04:30:34 AM
Please explain how to use variance as a friend, all the system I know fall prey to
variance.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 22, 2016, 06:00:42 AM
Not really, Bayes.
If you face a disadvantage of 2.7% on every spin then in 37 spins you SHOULD , in theory, lose 37 x 2.7% which is 100% of the amount bet .If not, what does a 2.7% disadvantage mean?  If you bet $100 on each of 37 spins you SHOULD lose $2.70 on each spin.37 times $2.7 is $ 99.90 ?

Yes, but that's not 100% of your bankroll. You will lose, on average, 2.7% of whatever you're staking on each spin, so if betting 1 unit per spin you will lose 2.7% of the unit per spin;  betting $1 per spin after 37 spins you will have lost $1. If betting on all numbers you will lose 37 x 2.7% = $1 per spin. In all other cases, betting between 1 and 37 numbers you will lose something between 2.7 cents and $1.

Quote
As for variance . I have read no statement of the HE that includes variance and I have said before that
variance can destroy any theory about roulette.

The HE is about the average or mean - what happens in the long term. The "theory" isn't wrong but just incomplete; to complete the picture you need to include variance which explains the apparent discrepancy between theory and what actually happens. The HA (average) is a measure of "central tendency" whereas variance is a measure of dispersion.

But I agree that it's wrong to say that everyone must lose due to the house edge. Whether you win or lose depends on picking the winning numbers and on this the theory is silent.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 22, 2016, 06:21:22 AM
Why variance enemy? It's the only thing that permit system players to win from time to time...
 

What about money management and progressions? You could say that these are just ways to "artificially" increase the variance, and so permit the system player to win.

The usual argument against them is that they don't by themselves give you an edge, so you may win very often but when the loss comes it will wipe out all winnings and more. But the system player attempts to "tame" variance by his selections so that the progressions don't become too dangerous. And it's not variance as such that's the problem but only negative variance. Ideally the solution is to reduce the negative variance while leaving the positive variance intact, but if this can't be done then a lesser objective would be to reduce the swings in both directions. Careful money management can then work to recover any losses safely.

 
Quote
If it didn't existed, life would be very simplified for AP,but for system player it would be a nemesis.

Why would it? Suppose I could reduce the variance right down such that my winning and losing runs were greatly reduced. Flat betting I would still lose to the house edge but I would only have to recover a certain percentage of my losses in order to stay in profit.
You may say that this isn't possible but that's another argument...
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 22, 2016, 08:12:53 AM
When you play the EC the ratio must be 1. This equilibrium is reached alter about 150-200 spins.
 The first 150 spins is a short run trial. There is no equilibrium and the ratio variances with large jumbs.
The crest and the troughs are are caused by the variance. These are triggers for a strategy.

Simulate a lot of 150 trials and you can compute the average of the crests and troughs.

In theory you can do this research for all kind of bettings.

The Multy Roulette produce the figures for this method by the stats of the last  50 spins.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 22, 2016, 12:35:51 PM
@Bayes, my sequential betting is a way to operate variance to players favor. With it we can perform similar or better as flat bet, when variance on our side and better then flat betting when variance play egeins us.
  Method has its limitations,  but illustrates clearly possibility to work with such a beast as variance instead of conflicting with it.
   Why it's beneficial for advantage play only, you could ask.... Trick is to already having advantage in one form or other on your bets selections.
  Reducing frequency of bets without clear reason to do so , not the way to reduce variance, it's just a way to reduce bets per hour. It has no affect whatsoever on variance. Just limits exposure of your bets to HE , limiting your possible winnings as well.
 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 22, 2016, 01:10:44 PM
Reply to scepticus -

If you face a disadvantage of 2.7% on every spin then in 37 spins you should, in theory, lose 37 x
2.7% which is 100% of the amount bet.

Sorry Scep but your "math" seems out by a very, very large margin.
if you bet $100 for each of 37 spins, you have bet $3,700 and the $99.9 you lose is still 2.7% of what
you have bet.
eg. if you bet 1 number for $100 dollars 37 times, need to start with $3,700 and if variance is zero you
will win one time and end up with $3,600 which is your money back less 2.7%.

But I agree with you 100% about the variance - that is the real enemy !

Ian ( and Bayes ).
I am indulging in "thinking outside the box " here to make a point.
If I sit at a table with a bankroll of £ 100 and bet £100 on  an EC on each of 37 spins  and win each
and every spin I have been underpaid 37 x2.7% and so have lost my original bankroll to the HE.
You will reply " Yes, but you have INCREASED your bankroll 37 times ! "
So, what's my point ?
Simply that the HE is largely irrelevant provided you choose the winner and CHOOSING THE WINNER is what we need to focus on and not progressions. In MY opinion , of course, because IN MY OPINION we can win by Flat Bets and so risk less money or make bigger bets with the same bankroll as Progressives use.
As for AP without the use of a computer ? Strictly for the birds IMO !   
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 22, 2016, 01:24:07 PM

Simply that the HE is largely irrelevant provided you choose the winner and CHOOSING THE WINNER is what we need to focus on and not progressions.

I largely agree although of course it still makes sense to choose a game with a low house edge otherwise it's too difficult to make any headway. Even the APers can agree with that.  ;)

Personally I favour a combination of bet selection and money management (which I prefer to the term "progression") because it's more efficient, at least for the kind of bets I make.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 22, 2016, 01:41:08 PM

Simply that the HE is largely irrelevant provided you choose the winner and CHOOSING THE WINNER is what we need to focus on and not progressions.

I largely agree although of course it still makes sense to choose a game with a low house edge otherwise it's too difficult to make any headway. Even the APers can agree with that.  ;)

Personally I favour a combination of bet selection and money management (which I prefer to the term "progression") because it's more efficient, at least for the kind of bets I make.
Agree absolutely with both of you.
 Bet sellection is as important as money menagement. Selecting the game that maximally favors player is a good idea as well.
 As for " computer use". Player should use one , even if its his own brain( especialy brain)...
 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 22, 2016, 02:21:18 PM
Well about that computer brain that we have, I was just here working my MM plan and I had a brain storm (or brain cramp, I can't tell which?) about Dobble's SSB 10 back EC method and how he pointed out that using a trigger decreases the money made while the chances of the catastrophic failure remain the same:

Why not reverse the trigger so we can bet more often but still keep the costs down!?

In other words, I am currently using a trigger of 3 where the SSB incorrectly chooses the selection thrice before I begin betting which allows me to bet 1,2,4,8,16,32,64 to achieve the entire 10 bets of the method and instead of risking 1023 units, my max doomage is only 127 units.

With the reverse trigger I would bet every spin all 3 EC's 1(1),2(2),4(3),8(4),16(5),32(6),64(7) calling that 7th bet failure the catastrophic loss for that same total of 127 units doomage...

This is effectively "placing the trigger" at the END of the sequence where it is more rare instead of at the beginning where it is virtually constant and betting in the beginning where it IS constant instead of the end where it is very rare.

Applying Dobble's short run theory, we WOULD leave sessions earlier which, according to the theory, would improve our performance as the run would have less chance to "degrade" and thus produce the bizarre and twisted output that we all eventually see... 

Obviously, this doesn't avoid the twisted output entirely but according to the theory, it reduces it to only occurring because of pure random chance which is not aided by our intentional increased exposure.

Now this is either the most mentally challenged concept produced by a blurry mind that has just awakened in the morning OR it is an amazing solution and improvement to my current adaptation of the SSB!

How exciting!  Which is it?

EDIT: Well, it looks like I have answered my own question. 

In the final analysis, it is better to have the odds as massively in your favor as possible when things go bad (use a trigger to advance the stats in your favor) than to take advantage of quick profits and be stuck high and dry when things go south (no trigger and therefore MUCH less statistical advantage).

This thought process is based around my betting method which is a form of misdirection, where I wish to engage the catastrophic loss at its weakest point, betting much less than my bankroll to await the moment when I can strike for a "statistically safer" large amount and thus reduce/eliminate the debt.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 22, 2016, 02:47:15 PM
Which is it ? Don't ask me Reyth. You and I like to deal in What Ifs.
I have used the 5 in 7 for ECs. ( Sets of 2 )
The Nine block for dozens and columns. ( Sets of 3 )
And now I am toying with the idea of utilising the Latin Square or Lousy Square for Sets of 4. !
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 22, 2016, 03:33:12 PM
See you even have different structures!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 22, 2016, 04:56:12 PM
Ok Dobble, in honor of your awesome SSB system I have made a video here:

https://youtu.be/tyknzbXMUjY (https://youtu.be/tyknzbXMUjY)

Watch me make 100 units in 10 minutes using your system!  I have recommended all You Tube viewers come to your blog!

But I have a few questions for you...

1) How would you recommend recovering once the catastrophic loss hits?

1a) What do you do when it hits? 

2) Are you net positive lifetime for this system?

I believe you have a statistically superior bet selection and I believe you when you say that recovery comes faster than the catastrophic loss but I am still trying to wrap my mind around how I should go about accomplishing this...?

3) What do you think of dividing the debt into:

75 parts for a new unit size of  14?

OR

100 parts for a new unit size of 11?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 22, 2016, 08:07:49 PM
Ok I found out the answer!  And you won't believe what I was doing when I discovered it...

(http://sugarscape.cdnds.net/16/04/980x490/landscape-1453811315-output-qgm86g.gif)

That's right I was taking a crap!!!!

(https://media.tenor.co/images/8dc020ad13a1ace5179d443a9e556c82/raw)

In a phrase:

ITS PSYCHOLOGICAL!

I mean, I had to actually confront the problem by sitting down and betting the full system to finally understand the answer.

The reason its not apparent is because of the following:

1) Martingale <=== definitely bad stay away
2) 1023 unit catastrophic loss <=== don't touch this with a 10' pole
3) When you lose with a Martingale you LOSE E-V-E-R-Y-T-H-I-N-G
4) See #1, #2 & #3

Until you actually play the system and see how quick and easy it is to rack up 100 units!  You saw me do it on the video in just 10 minutes!!!

So we simply do the math:

1023/100=11 which produces the following progression:

11
22
44
88
176
352
704
1408
2816
5632(10) <=== 11264 bankroll required

On a penny table that's 112.64.  Now, apply the money management system:

Week 1: 4725
Week 2: 9450
Week 3: 18900
Week 4: 37800

So that's 1023 units to gain 37800 units in just 28 "days" (4 "weeks").  Now, I haven't worked out how to navigate when your unit sizing is 2X, 4X and 8X and a catastrophic loss hits but 1023:37800 is the potential here; the recovery is 100 coups, which is only about 10 minutes work!

You can do LESS than 100 coups too!  I am personally doing 52 coups for recovery which takes about 5 minutes.

No matter what your view is on this system, it DEFINITELY isn't as bad as it appears!  The key is understanding how well this system actually performs on the felt but we don't want to do that because of reasons #1-#4 quoted above. ;)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 23, 2016, 01:19:25 AM
See you even have different structures!

True Reyth. but there is a world of difference  between  curiosity and actual betting,  Careful consideration is needed before betting an idea with real money. In my time I have considered progressions  as well as other ideas but found that most progressions were not for me. They seldom. if ever, made  much difference  to my  profit .
 I side with HarryJ and Pally in this - the shorter the progression the easier the recovery. IMO the progressions of yourself and Dobbel  don't consider risk and reward enough though, obviously, they  win many times but it is the fear of a catastrophic  wipeout  that keeps me from even considering such a bet. I think it needs a reasonable bet selection  before a progression  should even be considered.
After all, blackjack players win because they UP their  bets don't they ?
  But they need  the card count to tell them WHEN it should be applied. If the card count doesn't tell them it is OK to raise their bets then  they don't .
Still. Your  Money - Your Choice.
.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 23, 2016, 01:30:12 AM
Why variance enemy? It's the only thing that permit system players to win from time to time...
 

What about money management and progressions? You could say that these are just ways to "artificially" increase the variance, and so permit the system player to win.

The usual argument against them is that they don't by themselves give you an edge, so you may win very often but when the loss comes it will wipe out all winnings and more. But the system player attempts to "tame" variance by his selections so that the progressions don't become too dangerous. And it's not variance as such that's the problem but only negative variance. Ideally the solution is to reduce the negative variance while leaving the positive variance intact, but if this can't be done then a lesser objective would be to reduce the swings in both directions. Careful money management can then work to recover any losses safely.

 
Quote
If it didn't existed, life would be very simplified for AP,but for system player it would be a nemesis.

Why would it? Suppose I could reduce the variance right down such that my winning and losing runs were greatly reduced. Flat betting I would still lose to the house edge but I would only have to recover a certain percentage of my losses in order to stay in profit.
You may say that this isn't possible but that's another argument...

By negative variance do you mean that it is not in our favour  while  positive variance is ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 23, 2016, 01:43:49 AM
See you even have different structures!
IMO the progressions of yourself and Dobbel  don't consider risk and reward enough though, obviously, they  win many times but it is the fear of a catastrophic  wipeout  that keeps me from even considering such a bet.

Right me too.  That's why I slaughtered the system by using a trigger; I literally killed the statistics that are normally well in my favor using the SSB bet selection out of fear of that big loss; I mean EVERYONE knows you lose it all when you bet the Marty, right?

You know professional spies have said that the best place to hide something is in plain sight and I am only suggesting that a) The loss itself is not as bad as it looks & b) The recovery is not as catastrophic as would usually be expected.

Quote
I think it needs a reasonable bet selection  before a progression  should even be considered.
After all, blackjack players win because they UP their  bets don't they ?
  But they need  the card count to tell them WHEN it should be applied. If the card count doesn't tell them it is OK to raise their bets then  they don't.

The essential point about the SSB bet selection for EC's is that we are not just dealing with 10 EC's on which we bet (I know that's what you believe the selection consists of) but we are also dealing with the statistical reality of 10 EC's which have been previously generated and the fact that they will not immediately repeat.  This dual focus creates a statistical advantage which is the "card counting" advantage that you and I both are looking for in a system.

I mean for me, what good is a MM system if your bet selection doesn't perform?  You just throw your money away trying to multiply it -- you need a SOLID bet selection to use a multiplying MM system and I have found that almost all bet selections just don't have the needed edge because let's face it, I am looking for an income (at least P/T) but I am also not rich (larger balances are prohibitive atm).
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 23, 2016, 02:10:06 AM
Reyth
If you think that  ANY 10 ECs are certain  NOT to immediately repeat then there is nothing more to be said on the matter.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 23, 2016, 02:35:08 AM
I happen to know that we are both CERTAIN that it WILL happen.

It takes courage to look a 1023 unit loss Marty in the face and accept that loss in order to learn how to deal with it.

Let's face it, our roulette "enemies", the math's guys with their glass half empty approach, have been brainwashing us everywhere over the internet forever that the Marty will steal ALL our profits, it will take FOREVER to recover and using a Marty is a foolish and newb thing to do.

Its a rare person these days that has the courage to say that the Marty is a strong MM method.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 23, 2016, 03:31:57 AM
 Lol. Really guys..  Martingale is funny.
 However it's not for everyone.
 If you can get solid 30% of advantage , it could be a way to go, at least it would be justified ... but even in this situation it's not practical.  I mean , if you can get advantage , there are better ways to  manage money.
 Instead of thinking how to chase losses, need to focus on how to get winning. And not only that, but maximise it in terms of money per hour ...  with minimum risk .
   If progression is not justified, better to focus on flat bet , as Scepticus does.
 If not win a lot , at least escape big trouble. .. just my 15 cents on the matter.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 23, 2016, 05:32:29 AM
Lol. Really guys..  Martingale is funny.
 However it's not for everyone.

Right.  This is a 10-step Marty under controlled circumstances, for a specific statistical purpose.

Quote
If you can get solid 30% of advantage , it could be a way to go, at least it would be justified ... but even in this situation it's not practical.

I don't know what you mean by a 30% advantage but I have just completed my 975th coup with real money and have not yet had a single loss event.  As you know, the loss event is 1023 units and I am not far off. 

Compare this with my earlier results when I was expecting to get a loss event about once every 84 coups and it shows the tremendous statistical advantage that this betting method has. 

Also by way of comparison, betting on a single EC for 10 times has around 1:750 chance of failing where betting the 10th EC back against the pattern has around 1:4500 chance of failing.

I believe and am proving that it is justified here with real money.

Oh and PS, don't think I haven't resisted trying this method with everything I have, trying every possible twisted method I could possibly find before I was actually ready to give up on roulette and finally decided to try this, remembering everything that Dobble had said about it and having a very powerful MM method but no bet selection strong enough to manifest it.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 23, 2016, 06:40:52 AM
By negative variance do you mean that it is not in our favour  while  positive variance is ?

Yep. I suppose that's one definition of an edge. Eliminate the negative variance but keep the positive.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 23, 2016, 06:51:46 AM
@ Reyth,

How are you playing the system; are you resetting after a win?

e.g.

First ten outcomes:

1 R
2 B
3 B
4 R
5 B
6 R
7 B
8 B
9 B
10 R

Start betting - first bet on B (against 1) Loss
second bet on R (against 2) Loss
third bet on R (against 3) Loss
fourth bet on B (against 4 - WIN!

So the outcomes now look like this:

1 R
2 B
3 B
4 R
5 B
6 R
7 B
8 B
9 B
10 R
11 R
12 B
13 B
14 B

Do you continue to bet on the same pattern (so next bet against #5) or do you wait for the first pattern to finish, and thus wait for outcome #20, then bet against outcome #11?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 23, 2016, 07:58:52 AM
Well, I want to be clear that this is Dobble's method and so what he teaches is continuous betting and so in your example (which is 100% correct) we continue on with #5. 

Another thing though that I am doing is betting all 3 EC's at once which should probably be affecting the statistics because it is lowering the number of spins required to hit my session goals by probably a factor of 3.

I also am a firm believer in his Short Run TheoryTM and am also familiar with "corrupted" wheel states (grossly favoring repeaters) from my personal testing and so I am watching the EC's as a sort of barometer of the health status of the wheel.  If I see that the wheel is not equally distributing results across the EC's or other phenomenon like complete misses (and especially 2 complete misses in a row) or the presence of the zero & any EC that reaches 16 in the progression is a general warning, these things will prompt me to start shutting down operations and seek to end the session.  I also end all sessions once a section is completed; a section is a series of 75 coups.

EDIT: Just completed my 1125th coup with no loss event!

Dang, its so clear to my mind now.  The trigger method I was using was actually forcing the catastrophic loss to come "sooner" because I was just spinning the wheel (while it probably corrupted too) and just like Dobble said, my profits are lower with the same chances of the catastrophic loss (actually its kind of like increasing the chances) and what made it worse is that I was cherry picking from 3 loss events (relatively rare & isolated among all the EC's).  I mean roulette is so sick, its like just about anything we try just fails... :/

Oh and PS its not because of the HE :P
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 23, 2016, 09:17:17 AM
About 30 years ago I have published SSB on a very simple website.After then I have sent my Excel program to hundreds interested  fellow followers, Criticasters have called me an autistic, have a brain defect, is a donkey and more.
I am glad you found the real strenth of SSB.
I never claimed it as a HG because a catastrophic streak can occur.
In you video you pla all the three ECs. The chance that you run up agaist the devil streak is so extrem small. that I thing the profit can withstand that bad event.
1. make a buffer from your winnings .
2. start the Martingale progression after after a three virtual losses
3.decrease the bets for the last 3 step.

In my challenge I have also published the results of the Grand Martingale with a higher profit.The higher the profit the higher the risk.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 23, 2016, 10:12:26 AM
(http://fr.casinotop10.net/assets/Uploads/_resampled/ResizedImageWzMwMCwxODdd-roulette-zero.jpg)

Dobble, you're not the bad guy!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 23, 2016, 11:30:37 AM
 @ Dobbesteen, some people are rude without reason. It's especially sad when you are actually trying to help them or present results of your work for free... 
  Don't mind them, it's a general education problem... People like you, who has balls to research something are very rare to find , they should be respected independently of their views or opinions. 
   @Reyth...
 Progression is " justified" , when you can expect better results with its implementation.   
    It's always a trade off between time and money versus risk you wanna take.
    Simple examples:
1. Very tiny advantage ( 1-5 %) with low control of conditions in play - flat bet is required ( probably sequence betting , if you can find proper sequence)... lots of time to validate edge...
 2. Mild advantage ( 5-10 %) with reasonable control of conditions - positive progressions (Kelly, Klotz..ets).
 3. Reasonably big advantage ( 10-20 % or more up to 50%) - can use whatever make you happy, need to consider casinos avareness to your advances, hide vinnings ... ets.
 4. Huge advantages... ( 100% and up)- hit and run, grand Mary,  max of table betting.. ets.
    It's all boils down to money per hour / risk to loose/ risk to be bunned.
   Real problem is not methods itself, these are many and can be adapted to situation, but bet selections. Using " random groups" it's like " playing enemies game"... When system player wakes up to the fact that wheels are different and some numbers are just better then others, then he doesn't really bother about " system" , but focuses on real wheel in front of him .
   Reyth, if you have time to test marty,  would you lend some of it for me? I know a wheel online wich could be explored, but no time to really track it. It's 100% deffective and could potentially lead to huge profits.
   
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on October 23, 2016, 11:37:22 AM
I am having success with your SSB, playing only high/low and with a very
aggressive 5 step grand martingale, if no hit after 5 attempts, then I take
the loss and reset to 1 unit and continue, so far only in test mode but the
wins are more than paying for the losses. I am using a progression of 1,3, 7, 15, 35.

Ian
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 23, 2016, 12:10:13 PM
I am having success with your SSB, playing only high/low and with a very
aggressive 5 step grand martingale, if no hit after 5 attempts, then I take
the loss and reset to 1 unit and continue, so far only in test mode but the
wins are more than paying for the losses. I am using a progression of 1,3, 7, 15, 35.

Ian

Ian, I can only very strenuously recommend that you do not alter the system implemntation or at least also test the pure system as well. 

I tried altering things and it really messed up the stics and gave me a very skewed view of this system. 

The thing is, I knew I wasn't getting the proper odds based on the results I was receiving and it frustrated me so much until I considered that Dobble told me the reason (triggers increase our exposure and thus risk as well as decrease our profits). 

After all that frustration and struggle, I finally just played the pure system just as a test and wow the amazing difference!


   Reyth, if you have time to test marty,  would you lend some of it for me? I know a wheel online wich could be explored, but no time to really track it. It's 100% deffective and could potentially lead to huge profits.
   

Sure, do they accept US players?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 23, 2016, 12:10:28 PM
Ok I found out the answer!  And you won't believe what I was doing when I discovered it...

That's right I was taking a crap!!!!

Too much information.  ;D
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on October 23, 2016, 12:46:35 PM
Reyth,
Sorry, I cannot do a nine step marty, I just cannot risk the big bucks
to only get my original unit back, but I can happily do a shortened
grand martingale where at least if I hit anywhere in the shortened progression
I make more than my original unit, also the reasoning behind this is that
the shorter progression will get hit more times than it fails and needs more units
profit from those hits to pay for the loss when it comes. Dobbie did say that his
system can be played with a shortened grand marty.
If you could please calculate how often the 5 step progression will fail using SSB
selection method it will be helpful.

Thanks again - Ian
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 23, 2016, 12:51:14 PM
Bayes I have worked out your coupon theory foor the SSB principle. See some page bach.

These results confirm my conclusion that the risk of the SSB system is extrem small.

SSB has no DTOP and is in contra diction with my statement that evry system can end with a profit or a loss.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 23, 2016, 12:55:07 PM
Ianpbh are you familar with an Excel sheet.

I can sent you theprogram and you can do many different experiments.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on October 23, 2016, 01:02:49 PM
I can learn the excel spreadsheet, so your program
will be welcome.
Thanks for the great blog and to everyone on this site, it
makes the process of learning roulette possible.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 23, 2016, 02:45:56 PM
Ianpbh send a request for free Excelprogram to roulettespleyesclun@hotmail.nl
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Sheridan44 on October 23, 2016, 05:37:44 PM
Dobble....

You SHOULD be proud of your efforts! I'm sure they represent much blood, sweat and tears....not to mention time.
The method is very sensible and one of the better ones I've seen.

There is no perfect anything. Roulette is a rough game despite its "elegant" appearance. One should keep this in mind before they feel the need to "attack" another's efforts. We're all working towards the same goals. Some may prefer different approaches to get there, but that's okay. This is what this forum is all about. There's always room for ideas and discussions....and I've learned nearly as much in the short time I've been here as I have in nearly a lifetime of study with this game.

Hats off to Dobble - and all those who work hard at this strange game we call roulette.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 23, 2016, 11:42:39 PM
By negative variance do you mean that it is not in our favour  while  positive variance is ?

Yep. I suppose that's one definition of an edge. Eliminate the negative variance but keep the positive.

In an earlier post I said that I could reduce the variance when I meant the number of possibilities.
Is this what you mean ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 24, 2016, 01:56:42 AM
=================================================================
Starting Balance: 20800
=================================================================

Week 1: 4725
Week 2: 9450
Week 3: 18900
Week 4: 37800

Day 1 Goal: 21475

Section A (G20875):Complete
Section B (G20950):Complete
Section C:(G21025):Complete
Section D:(G21100):Complete
Section E:(G21175):Complete
Section F:(G21250):Complete
Section G:(G21325):Complete
Section H:(G21400):Complete
Section I:(G21475):Complete
Notes: Each section is 75 coups (around 7-8 minutes work).  Notice there are no loss events even after 675 coups!

Day 2 Goal: 22150

Section A:(G21550):Complete
Section B:(G21625):Complete
Section C:(G21700):Complete
Section D:(G21775):Complete
Section E:(G21850):Complete
Section F:(G21925):Complete
Section G:(G22000):Complete
Section H:(G22075):Complete
Section I:(G22150):Complete
Notes: 1350 coups and counting!  How long will we go?

Day 3 Goal: 22825

Section A:(G22225):Complete
Section B:(G22300):Complete
Section C:(G22375):Complete
Section D:(G22450):Complete
Section E:(G22525):Complete
Section F:(G22600):Complete
Section G:(G22675):Complete
Section H:(G22750):Complete
Section I:(G22825):Complete
Notes: 2025 coups!  Almost DOUBLE the catastrophic loss!!

Day 4 Goal: 235.00




Wheel States

000=This is the state of quiescence & perfect balance.
100,010,001=This is normal fluctuation supported by quiescence.
110,011,101=Things are neither peaceful nor out of control.
200,020,002=Stronger fluctuation is strongly supported by quiescence.
111=Universal fluctuation that is yet weak.
210,201,012=Things are out of control but are only approaching dangerous.
300,030,003=Very strong fluctuation is yet surrounded by quiescence.
211,121,112=Universal fluctuation with a stronger element is very closely approaching danger.

16,32,64,128,256,512 all increase the alert level by one per occurrence
A complete miss increases the alert level by one per occurrence
The appearance of ZERO increases the alert level by one per occurrence
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 24, 2016, 07:33:26 AM
In an earlier post I said that I could reduce the variance when I meant the number of possibilities.
Is this what you mean ?

No, reducing the number of possibilities doesn't give you an edge although it can increase the probability of an immediate win.  You can reduce the variance by just betting more numbers, so betting 24 numbers reduces the variance compared to betting 1 number, but the payout is reduced accordingly. You need to reduce the "swings" from the average when betting a given quantity of numbers.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 24, 2016, 04:24:21 PM
2175 coups!

(https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--9sB5ZLAJ--/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/18smvgx1r7y6bgif.gif)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 24, 2016, 04:29:00 PM
In an earlier post I said that I could reduce the variance when I meant the number of possibilities.
Is this what you mean ?

No, reducing the number of possibilities doesn't give you an edge although it can increase the probability of an immediate win.  You can reduce the variance by just betting more numbers, so betting 24 numbers reduces the variance compared to betting 1 number, but the payout is reduced accordingly. You need to reduce the "swings" from the average when betting a given quantity of numbers.

Thanks Bayes though  I don't think   that  reducing the variance gives an Edge. Like you, though, I deal in probabilities with reference to the odds on offer.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on October 24, 2016, 04:29:55 PM
2175 coups!

So?

It's statistically insignificant.

 Test larger samples sizes,  50k, 100k, 500k betting attempts. Look for statistical significance.  For example, after 50k spins was the win greater than three or four standard deviations?  At 100k spins had the win grown to five or six standard deviations?  If you have a working method, then the standard deviation will continue growing as the sample size tested continues to grow.  Also, only flat bet when testing.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 24, 2016, 04:31:36 PM
2175 coups!

Well Done , Reyth  !
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 24, 2016, 05:03:29 PM
Doubling the loss amount IS statistically significant because it represents a certain dominance over the threat of loss.

Does it represent the STATISTICAL NORM?  That we can only wait to see.

My personal opinion is that these results are slightly modified by favorable variance.  I expect a loss event around every 1500 coups, based on previous performance with the triggers.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on October 24, 2016, 05:04:32 PM
Will the method work if you flat bet?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 24, 2016, 05:05:51 PM
Will the method work if you flat bet?

So what if it will or it won't?  You with your silly trick questions!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on October 24, 2016, 05:11:15 PM
Reyth,

Relax, there's no trick.  I'm just offering some advice. ;)

If you're testing, then strip away the progression.  A progression can not turn a losing method into a winning method in the long term.  The progression will just muddy the true results.  Simplify, remove anything that will magnify the effects of variance.  Leaving the progression in place when testing can exponentially increase the number of trials that you need to test to find significance.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 24, 2016, 07:07:57 PM
Reyth,

Relax, there's no trick.  I'm just offering some advice. ;) 

Ok, thanks.

Quote
A progression can not turn a losing method into a winning method in the long term.

No duh?  I believe you meant to say:

Quote
A progression will not alter the long term results of a betting method.

I am sorry but of course I disagree.

Also, I just want to point out that you are potentially saying, "Your silly progression that just doubled the loss amount is interfering with the true results!  Quit raising so your system will lose properly!!".

Now of course I think we both agree that we are waiting for the statistical norm to manifest here so that's why I say, "potentially".

According to Dobble, the statistcal norm is greater than the loss amount but I am not as optimistic and am excessively paranoid and must raise.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 24, 2016, 07:58:35 PM
In an earlier post I said that I could reduce the variance when I meant the number of possibilities.
Is this what you mean ?

No, reducing the number of possibilities doesn't give you an edge although it can increase the probability of an immediate win.  You can reduce the variance by just betting more numbers, so betting 24 numbers reduces the variance compared to betting 1 number, but the payout is reduced accordingly. You need to reduce the "swings" from the average when betting a given quantity of numbers.

So, if I can increase  the "the probability of an immediate  win " why isn't that an advantage ? And be an attractive proposition for progressive bettors ?
By betting MORE numbers am I not betting MORE against myself ? I think it best to reduce the numbers bet with a maximum of 17.Preferably IMO to no more than 16 and give odds of 5/4 .
The problem for me is that it takes too many spins to give a meaningful  average  never mind reducing the swings.
Each to his own though -  and mine's a Malt Scotch  !
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 24, 2016, 08:31:25 PM
Real compute first the SD of SSBbefore you come wish your. I think you have again no answers.
I wonder if you understand the SSB method.
There is no player who can play more than 200 spins in one session
Reyth let us seen how easy and fast you can play SSB on a RNG roulette.
IF he can ,you can!!
Donot filthinish the thread
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on October 25, 2016, 12:44:12 AM
Quote
There is no player who can play more than 200 spins in one session

I'm not sure as to why you're saying the above.  I will, however, play as many as 600 to 700 spins in a session.  Perhaps you're playing on some slow tables.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 25, 2016, 04:21:24 PM
Quote
There is no player who can play more than 200 spins in one session

I'm not sure as to why you're saying the above.  I will, however, play as many as 600 to 700 spins in a session.  Perhaps you're playing on some slow tables.

By " play" do you mean actually betting ?
How long did those 600 / 700 spins take ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on October 25, 2016, 05:01:28 PM
Nine to ten hours.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 25, 2016, 05:38:01 PM
Nine to ten hours.

Seems unlikely in a real live table where others play. Many years ago I noted the time spent at the table during 100 / 111 spins and it was  never less than 3 hours.
Last week-end I was testing an idea, at a terminal, for 114 spins and it took me 105 minutes which supports your timing. But that was at  a wheel with no table and no bettors and was very much quicker than a normal table. It suggests that the timer used was set at one minute per spin.
And you don't say whether you were actually betting  or " researching" .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on October 25, 2016, 08:46:31 PM

Quote
Seems unlikely in a real live table where others play. Many years ago I noted the time spent at the table during 100 / 111 spins and it was  never less than 3 hours.
Last week-end I was testing an idea, at a terminal, for 114 spins and it took me 105 minutes which supports your timing. But that was at  a wheel with no table and no bettors and was very much quicker than a normal table. It suggests that the timer used was set at one minute per spin.
And you don't say whether you were actually betting  or " researching" .-Scepticus

Scepticus,

That's actually betting on a machine.  70 spins per minute.  I'm not researching.  I already know how to win.

By the way, on a live table I've played over 1000 in a one setting.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 25, 2016, 10:17:43 PM

Quote
Seems unlikely in a real live table where others play. Many years ago I noted the time spent at the table during 100 / 111 spins and it was  never less than 3 hours.
Last week-end I was testing an idea, at a terminal, for 114 spins and it took me 105 minutes which supports your timing. But that was at  a wheel with no table and no bettors and was very much quicker than a normal table. It suggests that the timer used was set at one minute per spin.
And you don't say whether you were actually betting  or " researching" .-Scepticus

Scepticus,

That's actually betting on a machine.  70 spins per minute.  I'm not researching.  I already know how to win.

By the way, on a live table I've played over 1000 in a one setting.

So YOU were actually betting on a machine ?
I thought you were betting at a live table.
On an RNG where you can control when you bet I can understand that number of bets . I thought you were talking about a  live table.  Point taken . 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on October 25, 2016, 11:48:02 PM
Scepticus,

It's not a predetermined rng.  I don't play rng wheel. 

  It's a real wheel, but machine driven.  It's air ball. 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 26, 2016, 12:32:28 AM
Scepticus,

It's not a predetermined rng.  I don't play rng wheel. 

  It's a real wheel, but machine driven.  It's air ball.

I sometimes play airball and they do not spin at your claimed rate.
And you still avoid telling me if you actually bet every spin .
btw
congrats on fooling me into thinking you played only live tables.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on October 26, 2016, 02:36:37 AM


Quote
I sometimes play airball and they do not spin at your claimed rate.-Scepticus

That's your limited experience.  Not mine.  Here in the US, many machines are set to 70/71 spins per hour. 

Quote
And you still avoid telling me if you actually bet every spin .-Scepticus

I'm betting every spin.  Aren't you?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on October 26, 2016, 02:51:35 AM
Is the SSB the Holy Grail ?
Please check if I have got these probabilities right, and if so weigh in on my conclusion.
I am using a 5 step SSB just to make the calculation simpler, but it applies to the 10 step
in exactly the same way.
Let's play French version and insure against zero when there are many chips on the table
so that way we can just ignore zero.
We bet Black 5 times in a row with a standard marty amount 1, 2, 4, 18, 16, this
adds up to 31 chips for a lost progression.
The chances of Red hitting 5 times in a row are 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 which is 1 time in 32.
In 32 spins, we should loose our progression once for a loss of 31 and win 1 chip for each of the
other 31 spins, so we break even.

Now we do the same thing, but using Dobble's SSB, what changes ? If the SSB theory holds true
then the chance of the previous sequence of 5 replicating itself exactly is much greater than the
1 in 32 chance of any random set of 5 colours.
If that is true then this is the Holy Grail.

Feel free to point out the flaws in my reasoning.

Ian
   
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 26, 2016, 07:21:07 AM

So, if I can increase  the "the probability of an immediate  win " why isn't that an advantage ? And be an attractive proposition for progressive bettors ?

Because merely by betting more numbers you haven't changed the edge against you. By betting 30 numbers you are of course much more likely to win on the first spin than if you're betting on 1 number, but you haven't changed the payout in relation to the probability of a win.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 26, 2016, 07:24:53 AM

Now we do the same thing, but using Dobble's SSB, what changes ? If the SSB theory holds true
then the chance of the previous sequence of 5 replicating itself exactly is much greater than the
1 in 32 chance of any random set of 5 colours.
If that is true then this is the Holy Grail.

Mathematically, since every sequence of 10 has an equal chance of a hit (including an exact repeat of the last 10 outcomes), there's no reason to think that SSB has any advantage, sadly.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 26, 2016, 07:37:05 AM
Of course that is not true.  I disagree.  A sequence of 10 EC's repeating has a clear edge over betting any EC 10 times.

More importantly though, you need to be very clear about the fact that you WILL get hit with the catastrophic loss and you need to know exactly how you will deal with it.  I would highly recommend recovering from it as quickly as you possibly can to reduce your statistical exposure and even then there is no guarantee you won't get hit again during recovery.

The only solution I feel comfortable with is first having the bankroll to recover and secondly, having an emergency reserve bankroll that is not touched UNLESS you get hit with the catastrophic loss during your recovery from a first loss.  You have to work out the amounts of those bankrolls for yourself.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 26, 2016, 07:46:25 AM
Of course that is not true.  I disagree.  A sequence of 10 EC's repeating has a clear edge over betting any EC 10 times.

Reyth, do you have any empirical evidence that that is true? If you do then of course it would represent a true edge. I haven't found any. It would be the same as betting against the last number spun. If number 19 has just hit is it less likely to hit again on the next spin? No because the probability is 1/37 - the same for any number.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 26, 2016, 07:52:14 AM
I ran tests over a year ago.  The chances of an EC failing when bet 10 times directly is around 750-1.  When I constructed the 10 back simulation it came back over 4000-1.  Of course you have to believe in the practical application of successive odds in order for the theory to "make sense"; nobody serious about playing roulette discusses betting on a single spin.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 26, 2016, 08:00:32 AM
Of course you have to believe in the practical application of successive odds in order for the theory to "make sense"; nobody serious about playing roulette discusses betting on a single spin.

Well, a probability is a probability, no matter whether you're talking about 1 spin or a sequence. Mathematically, there is no difference. But as scep says, reality trumps theory, and if those odds you quoted hold up then it would seem that SSB really does have an edge, but I'd prefer to do my own tests before putting down any hard cash.  ;)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 26, 2016, 08:05:55 AM
Of course!  I have been waiting for you to actually construct a simulation (its not as straight forward as it first looks) and discover the edge for yourself.  I guess nobody can fault you for being jaded because almost nothing that we do works in roulette.

More importantly THE CATASTROPHIC LOSS WILL HIT regardless of any edge.  Dealing with it and a 2nd occurrence during recovery is the most essential thing.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 26, 2016, 08:18:29 AM
I adviced before to build up a buffer with your wins to withstand the catostrophic streak

Bayes ignored that a replication of a 10step event is a  20step event. That means once in 2^20 spins The zero is noted as a lost EC.
Ian when you play France roulette with La Partage it is not nessery to play the zero. For SSB the zero is an advantage because youonly the half of the bet.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 26, 2016, 09:03:46 AM
Bayes ignored that a replication of a 10step event is a  20step event. That means once in 2^20 spins

dobble, it's only a 10 step event, not 20, because the previous 10 spins have already occurred. You are betting that a 10 step event won't happen.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 26, 2016, 09:50:21 AM
Sorry but 20 events are part of the statistical picture here.  There is no "10 spins to come" without the "10 spins that have spun" to go with them.

What is bet in the "10 spins to come" is 100% 1:1 based on the "10 spins that have spun" and THAT is a statistical reality.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 26, 2016, 10:19:03 AM
Bayes I do not agree.The catostrophic streak is Always a 20 random streak.For example the system bust after a 20 red streak .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on October 26, 2016, 10:38:20 AM
While playing with the SSB system I have used a streak of 6 instead of 10 as it is
faster to test, after comparing the results of the SSB selection system against a
fixed selection of R,B,R,B,B,R,   I am absolutely convinced that Dobble's SSB selection
is far, far stronger !
Now I am trying to find it's "sweet spot", possibly between 6 and 8 steps with a strong
progression for the first 5 or 6, tapering off for the last two.

Ian.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 26, 2016, 10:52:55 AM
Sorry but 20 events are part of the statistical picture here.  There is no "10 spins to come" without the "10 spins that have spun" to go with them.

True, but it would be misleading to say that the chance of a loss is 1 in 220. If that were true then it would represent a huge edge. The chance you lose 1024 units is not 220 but 210, because you are betting on a  maximum of ten spins. If the chance of losing was 1 in 220 then your empirical results would be much better, but as it is they are somewhere between 1 in 220 and 1 in 210.

dobble, it's true that if the last 10 spins happens to be all red then you will lose only if the next 10 outcomes are also all red, which as you say would be a streak of 20 reds. But this is just one of 1024 possible patterns, and if you're betting on the opposite of the last 10 (which could be one of 1024), then the chance of a loss is 210 = 1 in 1024. The last 10 outcomes are selected for you by the wheel, they are not "preselected", so the probability of a total loss can happen in many more ways.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on October 26, 2016, 12:54:30 PM
Quote
I ran tests over a year ago.  The chances of an EC failing when bet 10 times directly is around 750-1.  When I constructed the 10 back simulation it came back over 4000-1.  Of course you have to believe in the practical application of successive odds in order for the theory to "make sense"; nobody serious about playing roulette discusses betting on a single spin.

Reyth,

Then your test is obviously flawed. Rather than testing how many times the EC missed 20 times in a row, you should be testing how many times the ECs hit ten more times in a row after ten hits in a row just happened.  Otherwise you're not comparing the same number of attempts for both.  Understand?

I'm shocked that after a year you're still stuck on this.  Especially since the facts on the gambler's fallacy and probability are so widely published.  I don't know why people don't trust history backed up by facts, mathematicians, and basic probability. I'm honestly shaking my head in disbelief. 

 I've noticed that everyone is leaving the zero out of their equations.  I assume it's to simplify the calculations.
Quote

 nobody serious about playing roulette discusses betting on a single spin.

Really, I do sometimes, and I sometimes bet on just one.  And for the record, I'm about as serious as it gets when it comes to roulette.

-Really
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 26, 2016, 03:37:36 PM
While playing with the SSB system I have used a streak of 6 instead of 10 as it is
faster to test, after comparing the results of the SSB selection system against a
fixed selection of R,B,R,B,B,R,   I am absolutely convinced that Dobble's SSB selection
is far, far stronger !
Now I am trying to find it's "sweet spot", possibly between 6 and 8 steps with a strong
progression for the first 5 or 6, tapering off for the last two.

Ian.

Ian
You can nominate ANY set of 10 EC and they all have the same probability of occurring - or not occurring. Try it and see.  You can  even bet that the next ten Reds or Blacks will not occur or will occur.
No one disputes that SSB will win most of the time but the fact that a progression is needed shows that THE OPPOSITE can  happen -that the first-or second - or third  etc. may  recur and so has the same probability as SSB.

Dobbel and Reyth  win lots of  one units and hope that they will win enough to cover a potential catastrophic loss and it is their right to do so -  and god luck to them.    Not only do I think they risk too much but I think they need to be bolder in selecting what to bet.
Bayes is right here .It is not a matter of opinion .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 26, 2016, 03:40:31 PM

So, if I can increase  the "the probability of an immediate  win " why isn't that an advantage ? And be an attractive proposition for progressive bettors ?

Because merely by betting more numbers you haven't changed the edge against you. By betting 30 numbers you are of course much more likely to win on the first spin than if you're betting on 1 number, but you haven't changed the payout in relation to the probability of a win.
What makes you think that I bet more numbers ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 26, 2016, 03:46:29 PM

Quote
I sometimes play airball and they do not spin at your claimed rate.-Scepticus

That's your limited experience.  Not mine.  Here in the US, many machines are set to 70/71 spins per hour. 

Quote
And you still avoid telling me if you actually bet every spin .-Scepticus

I'm betting every spin.  Aren't you?

The Airballs I play do not spin 70 times an hou.
Whether or not I play every spin depends on what method I choose to play. I do a lot of experimenting .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Harryj on October 26, 2016, 04:00:50 PM
   Ian, I tried using a series of the lst 6 results . Then betting for 8 spins. ie using the first two spins of the new series as bets 7&8. I also use "insured" martingales that accept a loss if the series drags on. This reduces the "catastrophic Risk" enormously !

    My tests seemed to indicate that this worked slightly better than betting the last 8 results. Really it is almost impossible to check without running millions of trials. Even though it looks profitable. I don't like playing  this way. It requires nerves of steel and a large B/R. Neither of which I have !!

        Harry
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Harryj on October 26, 2016, 04:11:37 PM
   My experience is that airballs spin at around 50-60 per hour. ie 5-10 secs to reset after the last spin. 35 secs for betting and 15-20 secs for the spin  There is no technical reason why they can't spin faster. Except the casinos know that most players today like to bet LOTS of inside numbers. So they can't afford to cut down the betting time.

       Harry
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 26, 2016, 04:30:49 PM
I agree we aren't getting the full benefit of a 20 streak as that would be something like 750000:1.  I think the reason we don't is because of the Reverse Engineering Curse and so instead we get the odds of "20 streak that has been broken into half way" which is NOT the same as a simple 10 bet on an EC which is around 750:1 but NEITHER is it a 20 streak at 750000:1.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 26, 2016, 07:03:36 PM
I agree we aren't getting the full benefit of a 20 streak as that would be something like 750000:1.  I think the reason we don't is because of the Reverse Engineering Curse and so instead we get the odds of "20 streak that has been broken into half way" which is NOT the same as a simple 10 bet on an EC which is around 750:1 but NEITHER is it a 20 streak at 750000:1.

Betting the SSB is betting that ONE of the ten chosen ECs  won't repeat. That has the same odds as betting that one  WILL repeat .
Write down all the possibilities of 10  (  yes , all 1024 of them ! ) and you will find that the SSB is a case of " betting your belief"  and Dobbel has the belief to do just that .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 26, 2016, 07:15:07 PM
I agree we aren't getting the full benefit of a 20 streak as that would be something like 750000:1.  I think the reason we don't is because of the Reverse Engineering Curse and so instead we get the odds of "20 streak that has been broken into half way" which is NOT the same as a simple 10 bet on an EC which is around 750:1 but NEITHER is it a 20 streak at 750000:1.
If a 10 streak is 1024 then a 20 streak is 1024 x 1024 = 1,048.576.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 27, 2016, 02:19:10 PM
From another point of view the betting selection is 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512.This is not a 10 but a 20 step selection .This alters not the reults 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 27, 2016, 03:09:45 PM
From another point of view the betting selection is 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512.This is not a 10 but a 20 step selection .This alters not the reults

Dobbelsteen
You win with this - so stick with it.
The discussion is whether it has any greater validity than choosing, say, the opposite . It is accepted that you will win hundreds of times but these are at the risk of losing 511 chips or as your illustration here 1023 chips .
I think the risk is too great - you don't - but it is your money so are fully entitled to bet your belief.
I  congratulate you on your confidence - and others who bet their beliefs - because that is what I do.. 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 27, 2016, 03:32:15 PM
Here are some results of simulating SSB using 3 virtual bets. The first part of the code is SSB and the second part is just betting on the same outcome constantly. Note that to simplify the programming there is no house edge, but this doesn't  matter because the point is to find out whether there is any difference in terms of the win rate. I have kept a count of the number of busts for both methods. If SSB had any advantage you would expect to see fewer busts.

Code (which should be fairly readable for any programmer even if you don't know the language):

Code: [Select]
sequence prog, last10
integer bank, stake, index, nextbet, spin, busts
-------------------------------------------
-- BET ON THE OPPOSITE OF THE LAST 10
-------------------------------------------
puts(1, "RESULTS BETTING OPPOSITE OF LAST 10\n\n")
busts = 0
index = 1
bank = 0
prog = {0,0,0,1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512}
stake = prog[index]

-- get 10 outcomes
last10 = rand(repeat(2, 10)) - 1

-- start betting
for i = 1 to 1e8 do
  nextbet = not last10[1]
  spin = rand(2) - 1
  if nextbet = spin then --win
    bank += stake
    index = 1
  else -- lose
    bank -= stake
    index += 1
     if index = 13 then --bust
      index = 1
        busts += 1
     end if
  end if
  -- next stake
  stake = prog[index]
  -- next bet
  last10 &= spin
  last10 = last10[2..$]
end for

printf(1, "Final Bank = %d\n", bank)
printf(1, "Number of busts = %d\n", busts)

------------------------------------------
-- BET ON 1 CONSTANTLY
------------------------------------------
puts(1, "\n\n")
puts(1, "RESULTS BETTING ON 1\n\n")
busts = 0
index = 1
bank = 0
stake = prog[index]

-- start betting
for i = 1 to 1e8 do
  nextbet = 1
  spin = rand(2) - 1
  if nextbet = spin then --win
    bank += stake
    index = 1
  else -- lose
    bank -= stake
    index += 1
     if index = 13 then --bust
      index = 1
        busts += 1
     end if
  end if
  -- next stake
  stake = prog[index]
end for

printf(1, "Final Bank = %d\n", bank)
printf(1, "Number of busts = %d\n", busts)

The simulation was done over 100 million spins for both methods. Here are a couple of sample runs. Note that the final banks can be very different but the main point to notice is that the number of busts is approximately the same for both methods:

RESULTS BETTING OPPOSITE OF LAST 10

Final Bank = -38143
Number of busts = 12277

RESULTS BETTING ON 1

Final Bank = -80822
Number of busts = 12370

RESULTS BETTING OPPOSITE OF LAST 10

Final Bank = 42647
Number of busts = 12126

RESULTS BETTING ON 1

Final Bank = 121260
Number of busts = 11980

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on October 27, 2016, 04:22:45 PM
In other words the "triggers" were worthless and didn't work.  Proving that there's no difference between waiting to bet or betting on the first spin.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 27, 2016, 04:30:41 PM
Proving that there's no difference between waiting to bet or betting on the first spin.

It shows that betting the opposite of the last 10 spins is no better than betting constantly on any EC (e.g. red). It doesn't specifically show that waiting is a waste of time, although I've previously done sims which do prove it.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on October 27, 2016, 05:23:18 PM
Baye's test proves that the math/basic probability is, of course, correct.

It also proves that Reyth's original test, the one to which he sometimes refers, was flawed.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 27, 2016, 05:56:10 PM
I prefer to run a test of number of betting events versus number of catastrophic failures over 16M betting resolutions (win/fail).  The normal ratio is around 750:1 and anything above that is an edge.  I can't code it or attempt to recover my original code atm, but I will have time later.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 27, 2016, 06:53:26 PM
I think there is a danger of thinking that simulations prove anything other than the probability of something happening - or not happening. A probability is an abstraction and can only be proved by actual experience . Theory is not reality and we should not be seduced into thinking that it is.
Dobbelsteen's theory can be debunked by producing the 1024 possibilities where it will be seen that he overstates his case.
That said - if he wins he wins and has , temporarily , proved his point. Reality trumps theory !
Look at this from another point of view. If mathematicians claim that he is unlikely to win 511 or 1023 before losing  are they not also implying that he could win if he  parlayed all of the opposite ? Or even 7 or 8 of them ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 27, 2016, 06:57:29 PM
Proving that there's no difference between waiting to bet or betting on the first spin.

It shows that betting the opposite of the last 10 spins is no better than betting constantly on any EC (e.g. red). It doesn't specifically show that waiting is a waste of time, although I've previously done sims which do prove it.

It depends on why we are waiting . Using my Nine Block I MUST wait for 2 spins or else risk being hit by the zero and lose unnecessarily. So waiting is not always a waste of time.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 28, 2016, 07:01:32 AM
I think there is a danger of thinking that simulations prove anything other than the probability of something happening - or not happening. A probability is an abstraction and can only be proved by actual experience . Theory is not reality and we should not be seduced into thinking that it is.

scep, you might as well say that "there is a danger of thinking that playing your system in a real casino proves anything other than the probability of something happening...". A simulation is not theory or abstraction but actual play - just without using real chips. A simulation is no different than using a bot to place your bets. Of course the simulation is good only if it accurately reflects the system you would actually play : garbage in garbage out as the saying goes.

Quote
Dobbelsteen's theory can be debunked by producing the 1024 possibilities where it will be seen that he overstates his case.
That said - if he wins he wins and has , temporarily , proved his point. Reality trumps theory !

But if it's been proved only temporarily then it hasn't really been proved, has it? If a simulation shows that on average, you lose, then any temporary success must be put down to variance (luck). The aim of a system is to win on average. Temporary fluctuations are not significant.

Quote
Look at this from another point of view. If mathematicians claim that he is unlikely to win 511 or 1023 before losing  are they not also implying that he could win if he  parlayed all of the opposite ? Or even 7 or 8 of them ?

Not necessarily. Playing the opposite selection and parlaying would only work if the outcomes/odds were not symmetrical. In other words if the winning streaks were longer than the losing streaks relative to the payouts, but if there is symmetry (as we assume there is in roulette, absent significant bias), then the problem is the house edge. If winning streaks = losing streaks then you would break even both with a positive and negative martingale; include the house edge and on average you lose using either.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 28, 2016, 08:19:39 AM
Here's an interesting stat regarding the ssb (or, more generally, using a 10 step marty). What is the variance? i.e. we know in theory you could lose the very first time you play (your second 10 spins are the exact opposite of the first 10), but how far could you go (how many bets) without a bust?

I added some code to test this and at first I couldn't believe the result (remember this simulation is over 100 million spins), so I checked and rechecked the code several times. The results was consistently about the same over multiple runs and the answer is about 1.3 million spins!

So in theory, you could play the system for an entire lifetime and never lose, if you're lucky...

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 28, 2016, 03:03:02 PM
I think there is a danger of thinking that simulations prove anything other than the probability of something happening - or not happening. A probability is an abstraction and can only be proved by actual experience . Theory is not reality and we should not be seduced into thinking that it is.

scep, you might as well say that "there is a danger of thinking that playing your system in a real casino proves anything other than the probability of something happening...". A simulation is not theory or abstraction but actual play - just without using real chips. A simulation is no different than using a bot to place your bets. Of course the simulation is good only if it accurately reflects the system you would actually play : garbage in garbage out as the saying goes.

Quote
Dobbelsteen's theory can be debunked by producing the 1024 possibilities where it will be seen that he overstates his case.
That said - if he wins he wins and has , temporarily , proved his point. Reality trumps theory !

But if it's been proved only temporarily then it hasn't really been proved, has it? If a simulation shows that on average, you lose, then any temporary success must be put down to variance (luck). The aim of a system is to win on average. Temporary fluctuations are not significant.

Quote
Look at this from another point of view. If mathematicians claim that he is unlikely to win 511 or 1023 before losing  are they not also implying that he could win if he  parlayed all of the opposite ? Or even 7 or 8 of them ?

Not necessarily. Playing the opposite selection and parlaying would only work if the outcomes/odds were not symmetrical. In other words if the winning streaks were longer than the losing streaks relative to the payouts, but if there is symmetry (as we assume there is in roulette, absent significant bias), then the problem is the house edge. If winning streaks = losing streaks then you would break even both with a positive and negative martingale; include the house edge and on average you lose using either.

I disagree that a simulation is the same as actual play. It is an abstraction . How many possibilities are there in even one million spins ? gazillions - so your simulation is only so many of these. IMO only actual play determines whether or not we win - or lose .  Probability deals with probabilities while you seem to think that it implies certainties . Dobbelsteen MUST lose at some point ? When you also say that he COULD win over his betting lifetime. And isn't that what I have been saying - if he wins he wins -THAT is reality .
 I also don't agree with Dobbelsteen;s approach ,I think. like you , that he is LIKELY to lose but only time will tell if that is before he wins 1023 chips -one at a time. I think he risks too much but winning often seems to be the lure of a Marty .
My point  about parlaying the opposite is based n the belief that he WILL meet ten losses before he wins his 1023. If that is true then  , failing a zero,  the opposite  is a better bet, If a zero  does   occur it will depend on what the prior wins were , Basically , I am saying that betting doubles/parlays,trebles is IMO a better bet than his Marty - for EvenMoney bets
It really is a guessing game .And we are all guessing -some with an educate guess and some with ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 28, 2016, 04:07:35 PM

I disagree that a simulation is the same as actual play. It is an abstraction . How many possibilities are there in even one million spins ? gazillions - so your simulation is only so many of these. IMO only actual play determines whether or not we win - or lose .

What does the number of possibilities have to do with anything? Of course only actual play determines whether we win or lose, but how do you know whether your system is any good if you haven't tested it? Simulation puts a system through the wringer and uses real spins and data so it's not an abstraction. Theoretical analysis is all very well but mistakes can be made and for a complex system it's just not possible.

 
Quote
Probability deals with probabilities while you seem to think that it implies certainties . Dobbelsteen MUST lose at some point ?

Not necessarily in his lifetime. It depends on how many spins he plays, but everyone will lose playing SSB after enough spins.

 
Quote
It really is a guessing game .And we are all guessing -some with an educate guess and some with ?

If it's a guessing game then what's the point of systems which are supposed to take guessing out of the equation?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on October 29, 2016, 03:05:41 AM
The case of the SSB is simple, if you believe that betting
the opposite of the immediately preceding results gives a win
chance greater than that of betting a random selection, then
you are on the way to a holy grail.
Personally  I was hit with the catastrophic loss from a losing sequence
of 10 at only my 26th attempt, lucky only play money ! Since then I
have tested shorter sequences and now am a firm believer that the
results are definitely profitable for a 6 step sequence, I am almost
ready to start testing with real cash.

Ian

 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 29, 2016, 10:20:02 AM
The basic of SSB is that the trigger is a random sequence and the trigger will not repeat.

The reason why I have written the 10 step excel program is, that in the Dutch casino the table limit has been reached with a 10 step Martingale.
Bayes write that the 10 step SSB can be played a lifetime without a loss.It is very useful to research for a better step . Sceb doesnot belief in computer simulation ,but without a computer such a research is impossible.
Actual playing take to much time for research. All samples shall be toosmall for conclusions.
The DTOP for a 10 step SSB is over the million. That means that all actual events are played in a short run mode.

In this discussion nobody has agreed the advantage of the zero for the La Partage rule.

The double zero is a large disadvantage in comparissing the real France roulette.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 29, 2016, 10:26:05 AM
Even though SSB isn't a winning system, it's as good as any other. I'm a firm believer in having an arsenal of systems at your disposal because if you stick rigidly to one simple system you will inevitably get bitten by its negative variance. The art of roulette (IMO) is to mix things up sufficiently and not to become fixated on any particular method. By employing a matrix type recording method you can incorporate several systems in a concise way - ideal for spreadsheets!

For example, using a 5 column row :

B R R R B (row 1)

We can create another column which represents the results of the number of B/R in the row. The probability is 0.5 that there will be 3 or more reds in the row, so mark a 'W' if the row contains at least 3 reds and a 'L' if it doesn't:

B R R R B W

Continuing, we start a new row and fill it with the next 5 outcomes, and this time we mark the number of times the column above coincides with an outcome from the previous row, and we also put a 'L' at the end of the row because there were less than 3 reds:

   B R R R B W
2 B B B B B     L

the 2 represents the number of times the outcome matched the outcome in the previous row.

Another 5 outcomes gives:

   B R R R B W
2 B B B B B     L
3 B R B R B     L   - less than 3 reds, so put a 'L' 

and another:

   B R R R B W
2 B B B B B     L
3 B R B R B     L
3 R R B R R W  - at least 3 reds, so put a 'W'

So we're incorporating SSB here by comparing previous rows and the number of matches, but we can also bet on the patterns or trends given by the WL column. This WL column will have all the characteristics of an even chance because it's based on a probability of 0.5.

But we can do more. Each column represents another stream of data, so if we label them 'a' to 'e' we could use the SSB by column as well as by row, or maybe some other system.

   a b c d e
   B R R R B W
2 B B B B B     L
3 B R B R B     L
3 R R B R R W
3 B R R R B  W

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 29, 2016, 12:18:11 PM
 Guys, multistage martingale or any other system will do one thing only, give some order to your bets. Unfortunately there is no order of bets wich gives advantage, unless you already have advantage...
   I tryed many different " triggers", " betting systems", " wagering systems"...ets.
   I can tell you that on long run only one thing matters- money per hour / risk.
 Obviously most of folks here, like me , have no time to get to long run now... but will get there enevitably during their roulette life time.
   About systems...
 Providing we have advantage,  many systems can and will produce positive result. But there is series of problems...
 Comparing with the flat bet on each spin, systems approach ( progressions, triggers) will reduce amount of bets ,or encrease monetary value we risk. 
   There are exeptions to this tendency. ..
 Positive progressions ( Kelly,  klotz)
 Sequence betting ( where applicable)...
      Moral of the story is simple. Each player has to sencerely answer one simple qwestion   " why he play this game?".
  If it's money to win - need to get advantage first. If it's to get adrenaline, well... it's your money and you can do with it whatever you like.
   
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 29, 2016, 03:20:49 PM
Mrp I think you donot understand the definition of long run. Try to understand my definition of DTOP.

The DTOP is the start of long run.Every system has a negative result from that point

The DTOP is for every number different. The DTOP for a 37 number bet is zero and for a 1 number bet much more than 1 M spins
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: mr j on October 29, 2016, 03:27:27 PM
Guys, multistage martingale or any other system will do one thing only, give some order to your bets. Unfortunately there is no order of bets wich gives advantage, unless you already have advantage...
   I tryed many different " triggers", " betting systems", " wagering systems"...ets.
   I can tell you that on long run only one thing matters- money per hour / risk.

 
   

I have to admit, I do agree (for the most part).

Ken
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 29, 2016, 03:36:19 PM
Bayes

The number of possibilities is relevant when discussing the probability of Dobbelsteen winning  . Probability deals with possibilities.

Maths geeks tell us that past numbers are irrelevant to future numbers so simulations are abstractions they are not “ reality.” Any conclusions only relate to the particular simulation.  Different conclusions may be made from further simulations .
Dobbelsteen’s basic idea is not new - any series of 10 is not likely to repeat immediately .That applies to any series of 10 and you don’t need simulations to justify it . A particular simulation may show that it doesn’t work - as Ian has shown.
The  perennial lure of the Martingale is that it will win MANY times but  the risk  of loss is too great for me - but not for Dobbelsteen. It is his money and is entitled to bet his beliefs.

If we don’t know what future numbers will be then we are only guessing ?

Why must it be a complex system ? 
I test my ideas by actual betting . I use simulations for practice to make sure I fully understand  my method  and make my bets without any pressure .How many in the forum have said that their idea worked with simulation but failed in practice ?
The maths say that we cannot create an advantage - the best we can do is create a method which has a reasonable expectation of winning.

At least we agree that we can only win by actual bets  !

Good Luck to Dobbelsteen, I say, even if it is only “ Luck “ 
as his critics say .

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Sputnik on October 29, 2016, 04:00:54 PM

 ...
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 29, 2016, 04:24:14 PM
Mrp I think you donot understand the definition of long run. Try to understand my definition of DTOP.

The DTOP is the start of long run.Every system has a negative result from that point

The DTOP is for every number different. The DTOP for a 37 number bet is zero and for a 1 number bet much more than 1 M spins
l have a mindset that dictates profit on everything l do. If l buy a computer, l actually gonna use it... if l practice sport, it should improve my health. .ets.
   Long run is simply inevitable sooner or later, independently of bets we are using, if we place bets they should profit.
 Instead of surviving for longer at the game, l focus on earnings per hour.. be it immidiatly expectation ( very short run) or at the end of the week... it just has to make money and at least do it better then my work.
  Hope you agree that advantage is something we can achieve with careful bet selection...  qwestion becomes how to profit best way posible... here are lots of territory for studies and improvements. 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 30, 2016, 03:09:52 AM
The case of the SSB is simple, if you believe that betting
the opposite of the immediately preceding results gives a win
chance greater than that of betting a random selection, then
you are on the way to a holy grail.
Personally  I was hit with the catastrophic loss from a losing sequence
of 10 at only my 26th attempt, lucky only play money ! Since then I
have tested shorter sequences and now am a firm believer that the
results are definitely profitable for a 6 step sequence, I am almost
ready to start testing with real cash.

Ian

My simulation of this is on my radar, just not at the top of my list atm due to some time sensitive, heavy and very important system testing.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on October 30, 2016, 04:34:31 AM
When you do simulate it, perhaps you can try 8 steps with the following progression,
2, 2,  10, 25, 70, 175, 440, 800 - that gets the best results for me, it is just a little
out of my price range to do with real money right now.

Ian
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on October 31, 2016, 12:35:58 AM
Dobbel, of course the La Partage rule is a massive pathway to profits when applying SSB.

I am having difficulty finding online casinos offering La Partage with a large enough min/max range
that also start low enough, so if anyone knows where to find them, please share !

Quote
In this discussion nobody has agreed the advantage of the zero for the La Partage rule.

The double zero is a large disadvantage in comparissing the real France roulette.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on October 31, 2016, 06:03:30 AM
In order to profit, we need a selection system and a betting strategy.
Roulette is a balanced game and so there is no selection system which
is "mathematically" a winner.
From the angle I am looking at it, the SSB is the best selection system I have
come across.
"Mathematically" the only winning betting system is our friend the martingale.
In practice though, it does not produce a good enough risk/reward ratio for my taste,
so from a different angle, perhaps a combination of up as you loose and up as you win
step progression that I use in my "Last Friends" system is worth exploring.

Quoting from another section here on Roulette 30
Quote
If we cannot see through the wall, but still want to know what is behind it,
we must change the angle of our observation.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 31, 2016, 07:52:08 AM

I am having difficulty finding online casinos offering La Partage with a large enough min/max range
that also start low enough, so if anyone knows where to find them, please share !

Here are some:

http://www.livecasinocomparer.com/live-roulette/la-partage/

Alternatively, Betvoyager goes one better and offers a no zero wheel. The house limits are also generous there.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 31, 2016, 12:08:41 PM
   My experience is that airballs spin at around 50-60 per hour. ie 5-10 secs to reset after the last spin. 35 secs for betting and 15-20 secs for the spin  There is no technical reason why they can't spin faster. Except the casinos know that most players today like to bet LOTS of inside numbers. So they can't afford to cut down the betting time.

       Harry

I agree , Harry.
At the week-end  I tested the Airball  for one hour on two occasions  . Both of them gave 50 spins in the hour.
If there are 70 spins  in the hour then the wheel needs to spin slower to achieve that and so is more likely to land in a particular  area of the wheel and so create a bias . And casinos won't notice that ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on October 31, 2016, 12:34:36 PM
In order to profit, we need a selection system and a betting strategy.
Roulette is a balanced game and so there is no selection system which
is "mathematically" a winner.
From the angle I am looking at it, the SSB is the best selection system I have
come across.
"Mathematically" the only winning betting system is our friend the martingale.
In practice though, it does not produce a good enough risk/reward ratio for my taste,
so from a different angle, perhaps a combination of up as you loose and up as you win
step progression that I use in my "Last Friends" system is worth exploring.

Quoting from another section here on Roulette 30
Quote
If we cannot see through the wall, but still want to know what is behind it,
we must change the angle of our observation.

Ian
 The Maths don't accept any winning method in roulette . Any method must insert the HE and " a Negative In means a Negative  Out " which is why I say that simulations are largely useless .
The  SSB proves it is a winning method when it WINS and so long as Dobbelsteen  wins he has proven it works UNTIL he loses - and he will lose Big Time when it happens . As Reyth showed Dobbel did not bet all ten "events" but only nine and he now  seems to have reduced that to 8.  As for the rebate when zero occurs -  a loss is a loss and so is not an advantage .The only advantage of La Partage is between it and  a table with no rebate.
 My criticism of Dobbelsteen is not personal but more  to warn newbies of the dangers of progressions.
IMO users of progressions are fearful of losing and gamblers should not be fearful of losing because losing is PART of gambling. Even luminaries of the financial world like Buffet and Soros  sometimes make losses . I am emphatic that we can win by Flat Bets and at much  less risk than a progression .So tread carefully here .
As you say Bet Selection is important and IMO is the most important part in our betting and is where newbies should concentrate their energies. 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on October 31, 2016, 02:10:40 PM
Any method must insert the HE and " a Negative In means a Negative  Out " which is why I say that simulations are largely useless .

Scep, I don't agree. This suggests that the only reason to do a simulation is to discover whether a system wins or not. But that is only a small and not very interesting application of simulations. As you point out, if all a (long term) simulation does is to confirm the house edge then why bother? Why not just accept the maths?

A simulation can be used to find complex probabilities, investigate how particular aspects of a system behaves, research money management schemes, compare the relative merits of systems, the list is only limited by your imagination...
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on October 31, 2016, 03:09:32 PM
Nice posts you guys but I must say that I have only mainained that Dobble bets all 10 events from 1-512 in the Marty.

Most recently we have viewed him to say that he uses a 2 step trigger when he uses the SSB on columns or dozens and I am assuming this is because of their increased cost as he must bet 2 columns or dozens.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 31, 2016, 07:00:08 PM
Ian read the paper on the homepage "the house Edge is a Myth".

The hE is only valid in short run sessions.
Try  a lot ECs short runevnts of about 75 spins and you shall see that the number of win and lose sesions are about 50%.
The lost is very rare close to 2,7%. This is short run theory.

Do the same for 200 spins events and the result is nearlly all ended with a loss larger than 0,00%.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 01, 2016, 01:18:22 AM
Any method must insert the HE and " a Negative In means a Negative  Out " which is why I say that simulations are largely useless .

Scep, I don't agree. This suggests that the only reason to do a simulation is to discover whether a system wins or not. But that is only a small and not very interesting application of simulations. As you point out, if all a (long term) simulation does is to confirm the house edge then why bother? Why not just accept the maths?

A simulation can be used to find complex probabilities, investigate how particular aspects of a system behaves, research money management schemes, compare the relative merits of systems, the list is only limited by your imagination...
True, Bayes . It may be that I lack imagination. I did  infer that some ( many ? ) people use simulations to prove that they have a winning system - and it was that aspect that I was
referring to.
I do appreciate their application  but I think that the end result should always be to  profit - or at least - not lose  and I don't think they do that.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 01, 2016, 01:28:33 AM
Nice posts you guys but I must say that I have only mainained that Dobble bets all 10 events from 1-512 in the Marty.

Most recently we have viewed him to say that he uses a 2 step trigger when he uses the SSB on columns or dozens and I am assuming this is because of their increased cost as he must bet 2 columns or dozens.
I think Dobbesteen's posts are sometimes difficult to follow .Perhaps it is his use of language. How does he manage to bet all 10 EC in 511 units as you seem to imply ?
An 8 step bet on 2x dozens costs what ?  I think his explanation is unclear.
He has put in a lot of work into his SSB but I think he could better it by adopting Pally and Harry's shortened version. Still - each to his own.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 01, 2016, 01:32:19 AM
Ian read the paper on the homepage "the house Edge is a Myth".

The hE is only valid in short run sessions.
Try  a lot ECs short runevnts of about 75 spins and you shall see that the number of win and lose sesions are about 50%.
The lost is very rare close to 2,7%. This is short run theory.

Do the same for 200 spins events and the result is nearlly all ended with a loss larger than 0,00%.
Dobbel
I don't think the HE is a myth but I think that The Long Run is  largely a myth and should be ignored . Like you I deal in The Short Run .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 01, 2016, 01:35:39 AM

I am having difficulty finding online casinos offering La Partage with a large enough min/max range
that also start low enough, so if anyone knows where to find them, please share !

Here are some:

http://www.livecasinocomparer.com/live-roulette/la-partage/

Alternatively, Betvoyager goes one better and offers a no zero wheel. The house limits are also generous there.
The Betvoyager's No Zero should be avoided.
They take 10% of any profit you make EVERY 24 HOURS ! And they charge a fee for withdrawing when using the NZ. 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on November 01, 2016, 08:45:23 AM
They take 10% of any profit you make EVERY 24 HOURS !

This is misleading. The 24 hours refers to the duration of a playing session, which is hardly a limitation - who plays for 24 hours non-stop? The way you put it makes it sound as though if you make a profit of 100 euro and don't play for 10 days then all your profit would be taken!  ;D . That's not the way it works.

Quote
And they charge a fee for withdrawing when using the NZ.

This would happen only if you make a withdrawal under certain (rare) conditions.

Quote
If the betting amount does not exceed double the size of the sum of all deposits by the Player, the Company reserves the right to retain 10% (but not less than € 0.5) of the total amount withdrawn.

E.g if you deposit 100 Euros and make bets totalling 50 euro, then withdraw everything, then you would pay the fee. If your total turnover is > 200 euro then you wouldn't.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 01, 2016, 09:02:39 AM
The betting selection for  a 4 step SSB for the dozens is 1-3-9-27- for each dozen. The catastrophic risk is 80 units for a win of 1 unit. The history board shows very often the next flow.

12-31-25-14-6-28 and converted to the dozens  1-3-3-2-1-3-. The trigger flow is 1-3-3-2 and we see that trigger has started 2 steps for a repeater.  The next bet is 1 fiche on dozen 1 and 3. After a loss the second bet is 3 fiches on dozen 1 and 3.
The cathestrophic sequence  is 1-3-3-2-1-3-3-2 with a loss of 8 fiches. The loss chance is 1to 81.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 01, 2016, 04:50:01 PM
They take 10% of any profit you make EVERY 24 HOURS !

This is misleading. The 24 hours refers to the duration of a playing session, which is hardly a limitation - who plays for 24 hours non-stop? The way you put it makes it sound as though if you make a profit of 100 euro and don't play for 10 days then all your profit would be taken!  ;D . That's not the way it works.

Quote
And they charge a fee for withdrawing when using the NZ.

This would happen only if you make a withdrawal under certain (rare) conditions.

Quote
If the betting amount does not exceed double the size of the sum of all deposits by the Player, the Company reserves the right to retain 10% (but not less than € 0.5) of the total amount withdrawn.

E.g if you deposit 100 Euros and make bets totalling 50 euro, then withdraw everything, then you would pay the fee. If your total turnover is > 200 euro then you wouldn't.

Depends on  your interpretation,  Bayes.
How can you make a profit every 24 hours if you don't bet ?
I bet 1 session  in each of 3 days made a profit on 2 days and a loss on 1 day.They deducted 10% of my profits on the 2 winning days .When I asked them to pay me the balance on  my account they deducted a 3Euro fee.
You may regard that as acceptable -I don't and so advise players to avoid the Betvoyager No Zero table. Their terms and conditions for the NZ are designed for Mug Punters  IMO.

As for the 24 Hours limitation . I think that this is designed to counter Bots .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on November 02, 2016, 01:05:39 AM
Betfair has their Playtech working again, after not being available for 2 weeks,
and their settings are very favourable, $0.10 up to $1,000 with La Partage, don't
know how long that setting will last before it gets modified.

Ian
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on November 02, 2016, 08:16:38 AM
scep, I'm not going to argue. It's all there in the T & C on their site. The fact is that for the average punter without an advantage who can't guarantee winning every session, the no zero game offers the best odds, even with the 10% deducted. Also, the randomness control gives you peace of mind that the outcomes aren't rigged.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 02, 2016, 03:19:50 PM
scep, I'm not going to argue. It's all there in the T & C on their site. The fact is that for the average punter without an advantage who can't guarantee winning every session, the no zero game offers the best odds, even with the 10% deducted. Also, the randomness control gives you peace of mind that the outcomes aren't rigged.
Actually,Bayes, the reason I chose Betvoyager was your view that it was a "Fair" site.So much so that I did not even read the Terms and Conditions.
The fact remains that it deducts 10% of any profit you make  every time you play within each 24 hours. You think that  is fair - I don't. A matter of opinion and mine is that punters should avoid Betvoyager's No Zero Table -and perhaps Betvoyager altogether..

As for your "fact" of an average punter " without an advantage"  " who can't guarantee winning every session " .NO punter can claim he has an" advantage "  in roulette . Even had he an advantage - an advantage does not guarantee profit only the  likliehood and you should know that .
 As  for winning every session  you are into Alice In Wonderland territory here .
And I , too, am not going to argue .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on November 02, 2016, 05:43:06 PM
The fact remains that it deducts 10% of any profit you make  every time you play within each 24 hours. You think that  is fair - I don't.

It works out much fairer than the house edge. http://www.roulettician.com/links.html

Quote
As  for winning every session  you are into Alice In Wonderland territory here .

Exactly, that's why it's better to play a fairer game.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 02, 2016, 07:39:01 PM
The fact remains that it deducts 10% of any profit you make  every time you play within each 24 hours. You think that  is fair - I don't.

It works out much fairer than the house edge. http://www.roulettician.com/links.html

Quote
As  for winning every session  you are into Alice In Wonderland territory here .

Exactly, that's why it's better to play a fairer game.
Bayes
Your example  ignores the fact that we in this forum - including  yourself - EXPECT to win more than we lose .If we do that , and bet on a 37 number table ,we do not suffer a 10% deduction , we get paid the full odds . In this case the 2.7% is irrelevant . The Betvoyager deduction might be fairer if it applied only when withdrawing all or part of the funds with no 24 hour cut-off point.
Keying into your link I note that you ADVERTISE  Bet voyager so do  you receive some sort of payment from  Bet voyager ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on November 02, 2016, 10:20:48 PM

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ay0VnNLw2Kg/VNFmg_PEEKI/AAAAAAAAA-w/-FFQZmgwqC0/w1200-h630-p-nu/BGB%2BAgbeko%2BMares%2Blow%2Bblow%2Bknockdown%2BGIFa.gif)

Pardon me but I am not sure if that was a low blow?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on November 03, 2016, 12:47:49 AM
SSB selection method - Having played over 2,000 spins a day for the past 6 days
without ever breaching the 10 steps and only 3 times breaching 8 steps, this morning,
within the space of 1 hour the 10 steps were breached 3 times ! also hit on 9 once and
eight twice !
What can I say, variance is B**ch !

Ian.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 03, 2016, 01:09:55 AM

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ay0VnNLw2Kg/VNFmg_PEEKI/AAAAAAAAA-w/-FFQZmgwqC0/w1200-h630-p-nu/BGB%2BAgbeko%2BMares%2Blow%2Bblow%2Bknockdown%2BGIFa.gif)

Pardon me but I am not sure if that was a low blow?

Yes, reyth. If you regard truth is a low blow.
 I was not aware of Bayes' connection until he asked me to check out his  link.
 I think he should have   declared his interest when advocating Betvoyager. You may not.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 03, 2016, 01:31:12 AM
SSB selection method - Having played over 2,000 spins a day for the past 6 days
without ever breaching the 10 steps and only 3 times breaching 8 steps, this morning,
within the space of 1 hour the 10 steps were breached 3 times ! also hit on 9 once and
eight twice !
What can I say, variance is B**ch !

Ian.

Ian
Now you may understand why I warn of the dangers of progressions. You may well have been unfortunate but the unexpected does happen . We can win by using Flat Bets / Level Stakes.
Saving your " bankroll " should be your priority ." He who turns and runs away lives to fight another day " seems the sensible thing to do when you are having one of those inevitable " Bad Hair Days ".
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on November 03, 2016, 01:38:51 AM
The reason why I have chosen roulette as my new gambling vehicle is
that it is possible to test things to death with play money and it is
much easier to be objective when real $ are not yet at stake. So back
to the drawing board !
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on November 03, 2016, 02:36:39 AM

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ay0VnNLw2Kg/VNFmg_PEEKI/AAAAAAAAA-w/-FFQZmgwqC0/w1200-h630-p-nu/BGB%2BAgbeko%2BMares%2Blow%2Bblow%2Bknockdown%2BGIFa.gif)

Pardon me but I am not sure if that was a low blow?

Yes, reyth. If you regard truth is a low blow.
 I was not aware of Bayes' connection until he asked me to check out his  link.
 I think he should have   declared his interest when advocating Betvoyager. You may not.

Its not that.  Its just that I really don't think:

1) Bayes would skew his view of BV for any reason
1a) Nor to encourage people to sign up at his link
2) There is any connection between Bayes's view of BV on this forum and the link on his website
3) Bayes is primarily commission motivated

Bayes is a really statistical chap (to put it mildly) and I think his banner represents the fact that BV stands unique with its NE and NOZ and that is what Bayes supports.

And I think its more like about how, you know when we have a favorite footy team, we like to support it publicly and such?  Its kind of like that.  Bayes' favorite casino is BV because he is a very statistical chap. :shrug:
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 03, 2016, 01:45:43 PM

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ay0VnNLw2Kg/VNFmg_PEEKI/AAAAAAAAA-w/-FFQZmgwqC0/w1200-h630-p-nu/BGB%2BAgbeko%2BMares%2Blow%2Bblow%2Bknockdown%2BGIFa.gif)

Pardon me but I am not sure if that was a low blow?

Yes, reyth. If you regard truth is a low blow.
 I was not aware of Bayes' connection until he asked me to check out his  link.
 I think he should have   declared his interest when advocating Betvoyager. You may not.

Its not that.  Its just that I really don't think:

1) Bayes would skew his view of BV for any reason
1a) Nor to encourage people to sign up at his link
2) There is any connection between Bayes's view of BV on this forum and the link on his website
3) Bayes is primarily commission motivated

Bayes is a really statistical chap (to put it mildly) and I think his banner represents the fact that BV stands unique with its NE and NOZ and that is what Bayes supports.

And I think its more like about how, you know when we have a favorite footy team, we like to support it publicly and such?  Its kind of like that.  Bayes' favorite casino is BV because he is a very statistical chap. :shrug:
Reyth.
You claimed that I had struck a low blow. You claimed that Bayes is not biased in favour of Betvoyager and then say that - well - perhaps he is  ?
With or without knowledge of his affiliation to Betvoyager Bayes made it clear that he found Bet Voyager a good site .In HIS experience .
Some others did too - that was THEIR experience.!
MY experience was different so perhaps I should enlarge on it .
1 )  I joined Betvoyager intending to play their No Zero with a 50Euro bank - play as long as possible and then withdraw any funds .
2) I was aware that 10% would be deducted from any profits.
3) I play a Hit and Run strategy so twice closed a session when I made a profit.10%  of the profit was deducted BOTH times.
I lost a third session and decided to withdraw my funds and emailed them to do so.
4) They replied that all emails should be sent via the email link   on their site.
5 ) Doing this I was told that I must email  them a picture of
some personal data such as a Utility Bill or my Debit Card- both back and front minus the middle digits on the front. The back of my debit card has the usual 3 digits but also has other numbers which I don’t want to give them so I refused their request telling them that I did not know how to send pictures  and  said that they already had
My name and address
My Home Phone Number
My Debit Card Number
and thought that was sufficient information . All they then needed to do was send MY money to the Account from which it was sent to them.
6 ) I insisted - they insisted  and after a to and fro they froze my login which means
7) Bizarrely, I have no means of verifying the foregoing because the emails are lodged unto THEIR server and not mine.
Because of this experience I do not advocate anyone betting with Betvoyager.
Bayes may disagree -  you may disagree -others in the forum may disagree- but that is my opinion and despite your  cheap jibe of  a Low Blow I repeat my view,
                                   I DO NOT RECOMMEND BETTING ON BETVOYAGER  !
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on November 03, 2016, 03:41:30 PM
No, I agree with you on having your personal view of BV and support you in your view.  I have never used BV but if I did (and I have plans in the future that would include BV), I would not use their NOZ or NE applications because of the red tape and conditions etc. -- just too complicated for me.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: ianpbh on November 03, 2016, 10:35:21 PM
The most important aspect of an online casino is the ease and
speed of withdrawal.
I am currently living in the Philippines and have no provable
address here, so I am very, very leary of casino's which are
difficult to get payment from, I mostly use Betfair (great company
but casino software not always available) and 32Red (reliable but
min of 2 on the French table), had problems with Betchain.

Ian
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on November 04, 2016, 09:47:46 AM
I think he should have   declared his interest when advocating Betvoyager. You may not.

Scep, yes I have affiliate links to BV, so what? Does this invalidate its merits or mean that I only advocate it because I'm an affiliate? obviously not.

I don't see that you have any legitimate complaints. The T & C clearly state that you are required to produce ID when withdrawing (to thwart money-laundering), that's  a common requirement at online casinos. Similarly, when you login a large notice is displayed telling about the terms regarding the 10% deduction, you'd have to be blind to miss it.

Quote
Actually,Bayes, the reason I chose Betvoyager was your view that it was a "Fair" site.So much so that I did not even read the Terms and Conditions.

That's unfortunate, and somewhat unwise if you don't mind me saying so. But you can hardly blame me (or BV) if you're having trouble withdrawing funds when you're not willing to meet the requirements as stated in the T & C. Personally I've never had a problem withdrawing funds, and to my knowledge no-one else has either.

BV isn't perfect, and maybe you would prefer to play at a live OC because you like looking  at the dealers or watching the wheel spin around, or maybe you would prefer prettier graphics or nicer background music.

But if you want the best roulette odds on the net, together with the peace of mind that the game isn't rigged against you (and what's the use of the best odds if you don't trust them?) then BV is the obvious choice.

Quote
Your example  ignores the fact that we in this forum - including  yourself - EXPECT to win more than we lose .If we do that , and bet on a 37 number table ,we do not suffer a 10% deduction , we get paid the full odds . In this case the 2.7% is irrelevant .

Come off it scep, if you think the house edge is irrelevant then you're the one indulging in Alice in wonderland fantasies. The house edge is never irrelevant; even the AP with a demonstrable edge has to overcome the house edge, so it doesn't really matter whether you expect to win or not. As Mr P has pointed out, many wheels may be biased, but not all are sufficiently biased to overcome the HA, so it depends on what precisely your edge is whether the 10% deduction works out to be an overall disadvantage.

The problem is, many don't understand how the HA works. Many people looking at the 10% deduction argue that this is greater than the standard 2.7% HA and so you must be worse off than playing a supposedly "fair" wheel. Or they don't understand how the deduction is applied, and conclude that you're better off playing the regular game. Steve H made this mistake -

[admin. note: please no links to that site, thanks]

They also don't understand how the randomness control works and think it's just a gimmick (Steve's criticism of it in that article may apply to the "Fairness control" feature, but not to "Randomness Control" which can't be cheated in the way he describes).

It's for these reasons that I added a lengthy article on my site about BV - I even included an algorithm for the SHA so you can check the outcomes yourself and don't have to rely on BV's. If I'm going to all that trouble, why not include some affiliate links so that I potentially pay for the site running costs? In any case, I've been promoting BV for years without being an official affiliate, so Reyth is correct; I'm not in it for the money (and FWIW, my affiliate earnings amount to zero so far).
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on November 04, 2016, 09:56:17 AM
The most important aspect of an online casino is the ease and
speed of withdrawal.

Maybe, but if the odds are against you winning or the game is rigged you're unlikely to have anything to withdraw in the first place.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on November 04, 2016, 10:02:24 AM
Its not that.  Its just that I really don't think:

1) Bayes would skew his view of BV for any reason


I would change my mind about BV and cease to recommend it only if I had legitimate grounds for complaint on a regular basis, such as having trouble withdrawing. BV isn't perfect. If a player wins a roulette tournament they're required to spam gambling forums before being paid. This isn't exactly ethical behaviour.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 05, 2016, 05:41:58 AM
Bayes
I did not say you were motivated by your affiliated link to Betvoyager but, yes, I did think that it might have influenced your view .I have no objection to anyone having a link to  somewhere else- paid or unpaid. I was , mainly I suppose, surprised to see the link.
Yes, I must be blind not to have seen the daily 10% deduction notice. Perhaps you could post a copy of it here so others can have a good laugh at my sightless eyes  ? !   

Yes, I may have been unwise not to have read the T and Cs but it would not have made any difference anyway as I would have the same (  self created ?) problem anyway.
Somehow I cannot see my 53Euros being remotely considered as Money Laundering.  ( It was 56E but they deducted 3E from the amount they  haven’t paid me.! )
Where is Betvoyager based anyway ? Is it an offshore company ?

As for being in Alice in Wonderland country . I don’t think so . It’s just that I gamble in the real world and not in your theoretical world.
Consider this scenario .
I am going to the horse racing today. Before I go I study the
Form  . I choose two horses which I think have a very good chance of winning. 
At the races .I see a  Bookie offering 2/1 on my first pick. I bet £10 on it. It is first  past the post of the 4 horses  in the race and I win £20 .
In the next race my other horse is offered at 2/1  so I bet £10 on it. It wins in a field of 10 so I win £20.
I won £ 20  on each horse at odds of 2/1 even though the odds against them winning their race was different. A 1 in 4 chance and a 1 in 10  chance.
With my winnings from the Bookie I go to a B&M casino.
The casino offers me 2/1 that none of the 12 numbers I pick
Will win. I accept the bet and  put £1 on each of the 12 numbers . One of them wins. I win £24. Being a Hit and Run merchant I go to another table where the casino again offers me 2/1 that none of my 12 numbers wil win . Again one of my numbers wins and I win £24.
In all 4 cases I have struck a bet .It doesn’t matter what the “real “ odds against are.  If you strike a deal  it is the deal that is relevant not the theoretical odds. If you win you win and if you lose you lose.
The moral of the story is that you must concentrate on choosing the winner because choosing the winner is what counts and not fixating on the odds on offer because in the REAL world  of gamblingthe odds are irrelevant .
 At home I log into Betvoyager to have a bet on their NoZero table. I bet 12 numbers one of which wins . Being a Hit and Run Merchant I leave the table and “casino “ .I  have won £24 but Betvoyager deducts 10 % from that .
Some deal. Some bloody deal !
And if THAT is the best  deal going ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on November 05, 2016, 08:30:51 AM

The moral of the story is that you must concentrate on choosing the winner because choosing the winner is what counts and not fixating on the odds on offer because in the REAL world  of gamblingthe odds are irrelevant .


The odds are never irrelevant in any gambling scenario, and no, picking the winner is not always what counts. In your horse racing examples (and any sports betting) the way to win is not to try to pick winners but to find "value" odds. That is, finding bets that offer the best odds. You can pick favourites all day long and still lose because the odds are adjusted to take account of the weight of money on the selections.

With roulette you can't get better odds because the payouts are fixed, so yes you have to concentrate on picking more winners than losers, but that doesn't mean the odds are irrelevant. How can the HA be irrelevant when there is a zero which is certain to hit? Unless you think you can always avoid it (good luck with that).

The crucial point about the 10% deduction is that it doesn't affect the number of winning bets; it's applied after you've played your session and only to the net profit. On the other hand, the standard HA is always present and acts to reduce your net wins: it erodes your bankroll. That's not theory but fact. With the HA present you have to pick more winners than losers (relative to the odds) in order to even break even. Remove the HA and you keep more of your wins, it's as simple as that. Your bankroll isn't eroded and the only thing you have to battle against is variance.  In exchange for keeping more wins you only get 90% of your net profit instead of 100%, which is a good deal in the vast majority of cases.

scep, I sometimes think you like arguing just for the sake of it. You dismiss probability, statistics, simulations, the long run and any kind of "theory", and yet you use systems. For any system there are assumptions, in other words, a theoretical framework. Otherwise, it's just gambling and you're relying on mindless luck, in which case, why exchange ideas or have any discussion at all? You say you like to discuss ideas, but at the same time seem to deny that there is any way of discriminating between them or testing them because it's just a matter of gambling and if you win you win and if you lose you lose! It comes across as quite a negative attitude, actually.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Bayes on November 05, 2016, 08:41:25 AM
Where is Betvoyager based anyway ? Is it an offshore company ?

BetCruise is a Dutch company but their operation is in the Netherland Antilles (the Caribbean). And it's silly to say (as Steve H does) that there must be something dodgy about OC's which are based "in the middle of nowhere". Many OC's are located in these countries for tax reasons.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on November 05, 2016, 04:27:15 PM
Where have I dismissed probability ?
I don’t dismiss statistics but your use of them and so do  mathematicians because they claim that past spins because they are irrelevant . So they  are wrong too ?

Yes. I suppose I do argue too much but  I think you will find that is because I find some points of view misleading .

I think that posts should be about solving the problems presented by roulette and PRACTICAL ways of dealing with them rather than “ just for fun” . They should be aimed at making a profit  and should also consider Risk and Reward .
I don’t consider that attitude negative,

I should have made it clearer that the odds I was referring  to was the " unfair " odds which we are told cannot be beat.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: joeyyyy on December 07, 2016, 03:38:01 PM
Dobbelsteen, why we cant play just on one variation. how much variations is enough to know and use in session? thanks
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 07, 2016, 05:08:21 PM
My manner of playing roulette is all based on statistic and strategies. The most often odds I use are the streets and doublestreets and accidently the dozens, columns and ECs. More odds,less risk !!

I do not understand what you means withmany variations. There are infinite systems but a few suited for the roulette game.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Jesper on December 07, 2016, 05:18:23 PM
Test using free money or my simulators, there we can do the same on NOZ EU or AM, every time we try, we will learn that the house advantages have a lot impact of the result. The reason BV have time limit is because in the long run they will not win.  They use theire large bank and time limit besides the commissions to make their money. A skilled player (no skill to play that is a game of chance) which know the odds come out better.

On most casinos you get a share of the loss that the people have , if you link them. BV gives only commission on the winning which is very smart. 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Jesper on December 07, 2016, 05:33:26 PM
Its not that.  Its just that I really don't think:

1) Bayes would skew his view of BV for any reason


I would change my mind about BV and cease to recommend it only if I had legitimate grounds for complaint on a regular basis, such as having trouble withdrawing. BV isn't perfect. If a player wins a roulette tournament they're required to spam gambling forums before being paid. This isn't exactly ethical behaviour.

The major reason is not PR, it is that, they want to exclude the thinking of fake winners.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 17, 2016, 11:47:37 AM
With very much pleasure I have shared my knowledge and experience this year with all my felleow followers.
I hope to do this  a longtime,
All the best  an success in 2017.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 10, 2017, 02:52:49 PM
The irregular distribution of the ECs is a very interesting question. The answer is difficult to give.
Terminator for you I have programmed in Excel the Red Even system. It is not a true 28 number bet.
Most 200 spins examples give a loss. My analises learn me that the DTOP is about 100 spins .The outcomes osculate ver heavy.

Here the graphics of a 200 spins event and an example of the program.

For members ,who are familar with Excel the program is free available
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on March 10, 2017, 03:22:08 PM
Thanks for all your contribution dobbel!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 27, 2017, 03:00:58 PM
I have converted my SSB demo in a video. Now every body can watch the demo at any time.
The demo is not 100% perfect because it is very difficult to dra the images from the screen and do all the other handlings..
The demo is done for RED and BLACK. An experience player can play all the three Even Changes.

The link is:

https://youtu.be/oNrSVWopvok
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 29, 2017, 09:35:02 AM

My theory of the 37 chances learns that every random odd of six numbers has the same features as an odd on the DS.
The table layout has no influence.
Here the images of a classic table, the Dutch table and a random table.
All the DS content different numbers.
In spite of this feature the win/loss changes for  every DS system of the three tables are the same.

Every DS has the features of a six number bet.

The Dutch table layout has the advantage that the DS numbers are also neighbor numbers.

For a successful strategy you can combine the features of a DS system and a neighbor system.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 30, 2017, 10:33:52 AM

I have two different systems for the DS programmed. Particular betting selection makes programming a lot more difficult. The first system I bet 1 unit on  the same DS and the second system I bet 1 unit on 6 random numbers.
Both systems are a 6 number bet .I will research if there is a difference.
The graphics show that both systems has the same features. My conclusion is that all systems with any kind of six number bets has the features.
For every kind of six numbers you can develop a strategy. The strategy with a good bet selection is the key for succes.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on May 14, 2017, 02:50:20 PM

The 4 pilar system has very beautiful features. The strength is that you can play 24 numbers with only 6 units. Basically it is a 24 number bet. My theory say the DTOP must be about 120 spins. Most players doesnot play more than 100 spins. Every play session is a short run sample.
I mis a clear analyse of the system. I have analysed the system for a 250 spins sample with excel.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/xpt36q.jpg)

The diagrams of the whole sample.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2z7en8y.jpg)

Here the results o 20 samples.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/2rzzy3k.jpg)

You can play this system with much pleasure but do not expect a large profit. Every system has the feature it can end with a profit or a loss in a short run.

The system is not better than the Kavouras bet. My conclusions of both system are the same.

both systems have not a strategy. Hit and run is the best strategy. A bet selection does not alter the final conclusion. In my blog you can also find my analyses of D`Alembert, Fibonacci and La Bouchere

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 18, 2017, 01:27:42 PM
During the ‘Sixth Annual Gaming In Holland Conference’ on June 13th and 14th at the “Hallen” located at Hannie Dankbaarpassage  18 in Amsterdam, the Dutch Roulette Table will be launched. The official presentation will take place  at 12.45, June 13th at the Dutch Roulette Design stand.
A revolutionary new way to experience playing live roulette
The designer is the 82 year old Jaap Bouma, establisher of Dutch Roulette Design.
How is roulette played now?
The player currently needs assistance form the croupier to place the jetons.
Using the  Dutch Roulette Table®, this now becomes history.
What will change?
The change is a simple one. A classic roulette table will be enhanced with a new Dutch® design sheet. The roulette cylinder is integrated in the table, which creates major benefits compared to the classic table. The player does no longer need the help of the croupier; they can now play on the neighbours and sectors with just only 1 jeton – which is also more attractive to players who have a little less to spend.
Any more advantages?
Playing on the cylinder and the table can be combined and betting on and paying is much quicker, all whilst not changing any of the roulette rules. The game will become more enjoyable and therefore create more fun when playing.
Also for online gamers?
Online game players will also take advantage. The Dutch Roulette Table® is very suitable for live online roulette. Extending windows for the neignbour- and sectorplay are no longer needed. The roulettewindow will get a much more appealing appearance and the software is simplified. Additional advantage: The peripherial is controlled by what happens with the roulette, and not influenced by the table setting.
The Dutch Roulette Table® is the future of both landbased casino’s as well as online live roulette gaming.
Jaap Bouma is a devoted roulette player with more than 60.000 views which can be found on multiple blogs. He moreover writes articles for multiple gaming websites such as roulette.nl. Jaap Bouma is happy to elaborate more on his Dutch Roulette Table®.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 18, 2017, 01:30:35 PM
(http://www.gaminginholland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/DRD-uitleg-700x477.jpg) (http://www.gaminginholland.com/7826/drd-uitleg)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on June 18, 2017, 01:39:40 PM
(https://cdn.onetime.nl/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_06/Dobbelsteen.thumb.jpg.d6fc3f9e2fb7e9ef974cd2f0f2b2e929.jpg) (https://cdn.onetime.nl/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_06/Dobbelsteen.jpg.4ae2b2020a04731e640ba92f844dee95.jpg)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: juice on June 18, 2017, 04:35:27 PM
Congrats, dobbel ! Nice work.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Sheridan44 on June 18, 2017, 08:27:33 PM
Bravo Sir Dobbelsteen!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 03, 2017, 06:45:51 AM

After our successful introduction of the Dutch Roulette Table for the French roulette on the conference of GaminginHolland the Dutch Roulette Design team is looking for interested game providers and landbased casinos.
On a website of a big landbased casino I found this very particular roulette wheel. On the first vieuw a normal wheel. I had a bad feeling ,there was something strange. Do you have the same feeling?

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: juice on July 03, 2017, 04:42:10 PM
Why would they change some of the numbers traditionally assigned colors?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 03, 2017, 06:42:46 PM
There is more than  the color change. I can not believe it is a real wheel. Mr Perfect or mister real can find the bias. I think ,this wheel has no advantage for the casino neither for the player.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: MrPerfect. on July 03, 2017, 11:44:01 PM
Hm... 17 black only... what about the pay out for a direct hit or a color?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 04, 2017, 07:33:26 AM
MrPerfect why I have some bad feelings for this very particular wheel?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 09, 2017, 10:10:07 AM
I am surprised that there are so less replies. This wheel has very particular anomalies. Why should they have developed such a wheel . I can not see the advantages for the casino or the players. Do you see the anomalies of this wheel.
Has anyone seen this wheel on the internet.?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on July 09, 2017, 12:47:32 PM
Perhaps , Dobbelsteen, they are trying to make the point that Random cannot be beaten.
As 31 is missing this could be considered a "Fair Bet ".  Red has an advantage over Black but it's 18 numbers are faced with the the 18 numbers including zero  .
shrug !
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on July 09, 2017, 05:24:53 PM
I can see an advantage for the casino:  The zero.  The house payoff is short of what the odds dictate as fair, so the casino has the edge!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Sheridan44 on July 09, 2017, 07:44:51 PM
I suppose they could alter the layout/wheel in many different ways. I've seen some proposals where the zero or zeroes have been removed completely, but the single number payout is reduced to 34:1, which would maintain a house edge to 2.78%. The devil is in the payout structure.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 09, 2017, 08:10:19 PM
Do you have seen ,what has happened with number 13.

The wheel has now 36 and the ECs are no more 50/50
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on July 09, 2017, 10:12:49 PM
I can see an advantage for the casino:  The zero.  The house payoff is short of what the odds dictate as fair, so the casino has the edge!

As I have said 31  is missing so there are only 36 numbers available .
If the odds on offer is 35 /1 the odds are "Fair " .
So what are the odds on offer Dobbel ?
The odds on EC are NOT fair dobbel because there are fewer Blacks than Reds .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Real on July 09, 2017, 11:33:03 PM
Erm...Maybe I'm lOOking at the wrong picture in the thread, but I still see number 31 on the layout.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on July 10, 2017, 01:30:45 AM
err ...maybe I need my eyes tested . you and dobbel are right . It is 13 that is missing  . I was looking at where 31 usually  is - and it is not there .
Perhaps they have put 13 upside down  ? ;D
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 10, 2017, 01:07:02 PM
Another explanation is, that the developer has removed the number 13 , because the number 13 is international a number that brings misfortune.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on July 10, 2017, 02:37:27 PM
Could be dobbel.
To entice the punter's fear of -well - fear of fear itself ?
But why notleave it in so that the punter won't win ?
Why bother with something of which we have NO knowledge ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 15, 2017, 09:08:13 AM

The three number bet
A wager on three random numbers is the same as a wager on a street. I have programed this in Excel .The DTOP
for a three number bet is more than 1000 spins. I have researched a 100 and a 750 event. Both are short run samples.
Short run samples have the feature that the results are unpredictable. Here the graphics of 4 events.
In general short run samples can end with a profit or a loss. Without a strategy every system will fail.
 also a system on streets. A betting selection can not change the features
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on July 15, 2017, 04:57:06 PM
Using ANY programme -  including Excel - is a waste of time. The result will always be negative.
The only way to create an advantage is to leave something out when using excel .That requires a judgement to be made. If your judgement is correct you are likely to win .If not-  you are likely to lose.
Choosing the area of the wheel -OR THE TABLE -where you consider the winning number will be is the problem to be solved  .

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 16, 2017, 09:22:23 AM
Scepticus you do not understand the use of the computer. The results of simulation is to discover the particular features of random sequences. Without the help of the computer you can not find the DTOP of systems. The graphics show your misunderstanding. The graphics show that every system in the short run can end with a profit or a loss. There are no winning numbers. Every number has the same chance to win.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on July 16, 2017, 09:57:40 AM
I do understand simulations, Dobbelsteen .
Where I differ is the usefulness of them .Mathematicians agree with me that , in regard to roulette , past numbers have no bearing on future numbers . This is why my focus is on anticipating future  numbers and not analysing past numbers. A difference of opinion .
Every number has the same chance to win but some groups of numbers can sometimes have a better chance than others .
Incidentally, after boasting that your 10 bet system was better than any other why do you now use the first 3 as virtual bets ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 16, 2017, 11:30:48 AM
Every group of numbers have a chance of occurrence, but there is not a group with a better chance.
Please explain "a better chance".
What do you mean with "why do you now use the first 3 as virtual bets".
My SSB system is not better than others, but I challenge the forum for a better presented system.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on July 16, 2017, 12:10:13 PM
Every group of numbers have a chance of occurrence, but there is not a group with a better chance.
Please explain "a better chance".
What do you mean with "why do you now use the first 3 as virtual bets".
My SSB system is not better than others, but I challenge the forum for a better presented system.
1 )
In my ( block there are 36 possibilities of 3 being correct but only 4 have a chance after 2 spins .Threfore some groups have a better chance than others.
2)
In one of your earlier posts you said you used the first 3 spins f your system as "virtual bets " ?
3)
If you challenge others to present a BETTER system than yours then , clearly, you think yours is the best . If all you meant  was that you were inviting others to present their system then you should  have omitted " better " .

Further, I think you have misunderstood Blaise Pascal here. He was referring to the POSSIBILITIES of each and every " spin" being correct while you are only looking for oly 1 to win .So I think you are overpaying here . Real, correctly IMO,  made the point that there were only 37 Possibilities in each and every spin. What he failed to see was that it is the mathematicians who talk of the escalation - not we gamblers.  We gamblers " Take Chances " in roulette. Mathematicians don't   
But if any member does NOT want to Take A Chance -or  think they will eventually lose - what the hell are they here for ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 16, 2017, 01:17:49 PM
If a player has the meaning that a 10 step martingale is too risky than start the betting after a hit with 3 virtual losses. This is not a system but a strategy.
The SSB challenge is to beat SSB.
I play nearly every day 2 hours on a real tables. My goal is to leave the casino with more money than by entrance.My pleasure is the playing with the random sequences and their features.

Sorry I do not understand your roulette idea or is it a system?

An EC has a larger chance than a dozen, but not a better chance to beat the roulette.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on July 16, 2017, 05:19:28 PM
Well, O.K. dobbelsteen .The 3 virtual losses is part of a strategy  but you can't have a Hit within 3 virtual losses  THe point I made was that you yourself   now seem to wait for3 Virtual Losses  before betting  . So do you? 
I have said before that a 10 step marty  is not advisable .
You are still challenging others to beat your SSB so isn't it obvious that you regard it as THE BEST ?And you do overbet with it . Blaise Pascal's Triangle considers all the possibilities involved in all the 10 spins when you are seeking only one win in that ten.
My basic roulette idea  is the 9 block . There are several  systems that can be developed from it. Anyone that examines it can produce their own system . A Strategy is only the application of a system . If you examine any of the 9 blocks you will find that one of the 9 lines will have at least 3 correct .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 16, 2017, 09:02:30 PM

It is very difficult to explain every particular move.You can start the betting after the first  3 virtual losses. I think you have no idea of SSB. On you Tube there is a video of a 100 spins SSB example. Without the knowledge of EXCEL you can study SSB with the attach performance.
Can you show a 100 spins event of your 9 block strategy. Try to beat SSB with your 9 block theory.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on July 16, 2017, 09:43:37 PM
No Dobbel I don’t understand your strategy  because I have never attempted to. Just like many others .
What do you mean by
CODE
SSB ( Silly Sad B*st*rd  or Shoe Shine Boy ? )
Bet
Unit
Payout
Profit
Sum Bet
Sum po
Sum profit
Yes. I could guess some of them but for the sake of clarity I think you should explain .
Using the numbers you have given I would have made a PROFIT of 20 units on 13 x 2 x2unit Doubles  / Parlays.
20 units profit on a total stake of 52 units is acceptable to me. A fortunate   sample for sure but I did not pick the numbers . Sometimes we win - sometimes we lose and I usually use a form of Hit and Run strategy.Had I used he Hit and Run strateyI would have won 7 units on 5 bets of 4 units each -2x2.
Will I tell you my system ? No. Why should I when I have  already shown the breakdown in my thread of HOW this can be done ?  I had to do the digging and so must you -and any other interested party.
I could, I suppose , have another go by explaining from a different angle.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Junscissorhands on July 16, 2017, 09:55:22 PM
I have much respect for you and your passion/knowledge in the game Dobbelsteen.

But you really shouldn't hold onto your SSB strategy or method as being superior to others.

That can be seen on almost every single post that you have ever written on this forum.

 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 17, 2017, 09:15:32 AM
My SSB excel program with explanation is required all over the world. It is free available.

The superior feature is  that that the player has not to wait for triggers. After every hit there is a new trigger of 10 figures. You can not find a comparable system on the internet

There is a well known story of a shoe shine boy who visited a casino.

The RNG create a number between 0 and 36. High becomes the 2, low the figur 1 and the zero  the figure 0.
Bet is the input and a unit can have every worth. The payout is 2x the input. Profit is the difference between the payout and the input. Sum bet is cumulative input after every spin. Sum profit is the cumulative profit after every spin
After closing the session the last line of the  program give you how much you have bet and  won.

Such detailed reports I miss on the forum
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on July 17, 2017, 03:44:13 PM
Dobbelsteen
If you mean that your SSB is " superior " to others  only because it does not need to wait for a " trigger" then you are  clearly wrong. The worth of a system is that it profits and not because it does not need a trrigger.
If the Numbers Board has no previous numbers on it you would need to wait for your 10 numbers . In any case your 10 numbers ARE the trigger. If you were correct then I could claim that mine was superior to  yours because I need only 2 prior numbers - not 10.
As to your SSB method . I think you use a 10 step Martingale iwth a table bank of 512 .  If so, then your SSB is nothing other than a Bog-Standard Martingale .. A Marty is a Marty - is a Marty !And no serious player would play such a system  BECAUSE of the excessive Risk Factor.
You claim too much !.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 17, 2017, 07:55:09 PM
Scepticus you do not understand the difference between simulation on the computer and the real game.10step
. Do you know why I  use a 10 step Martingale. The risk of SSB is a 20 spins sequence as 20 High numbers the game does not need a previous 10 number trigger or a board or a RNG. What is the real risk?
It is possible that your system has other superior features. Now you compare cows and horses.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on July 17, 2017, 10:43:52 PM
Dobbelsteen
I regard the results of simulation as applying only to that particular simulation. I am aware that others in the forum disagree . So I DO understand the difference between a simulation and  actual betting.
You don't bet 20 spins - only 10 . So your first 10 is the trigger particularly as you change your bets  if you win.The prevous 10 results become your new trigger.. AS I understand it anyway.
What is the real risk ? The fact that you may lose 512 chips if those 10 bets lose . You are gambling that you will win 512 x 1 chip bets before doing so.
The Martingale is the best known strategy in gambling and no  serious gambler bets it . Nor does any mathematician  recommend it. On the contrary , most say that you should NOT bet it. There are newcomers to roulette in this forum and I think it irresponsile to recommend it to them .
Anyway, you did not answer my question. Did you not make a post in this forum thhat you now made your first 3 bets of the Marty  as Virtual Bets ?
I think you also posted that the Dices was your favourite bet yet encourage others to use the Marty.Seems strange .   
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 18, 2017, 08:01:41 AM
The Martingale betting selection is mostly used for a wager on a one spin event. For example bet red after black.
SSB wagers on an event, consisting of 10 random occurrences. The risk percentage is a measure for the risk, not the number of the lost units. Simulation predict a profit percentage between 2 and 25%. The La Partage rule increases the profit. This is also a particular feature of SSB and the French roulette.

3  Virtual losses is the same as a betting scheme 0-0-0-1-2-4-8-16-32-64 .Smaller risk but also smaller profit!!! I can not explain SSB more clearly.

I wager on all the outsides chances and streets and double streets. I never play a single strategy.
Spread your risk over more than one strategy. Beat the roulette is to leave the casino with more money than by entrance.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on July 18, 2017, 09:48:29 AM
Clearly, dobbelsteen, you do not understand the Martingale. It is not one bet but a sucession of bets where the bet size doubles form the previous one if the previous one  has lost.
I  am not complaiing about you playing it but you should not tout it as better than other sytems when it is not,
We will never agree here dobbel but please stop your boasting about your SSB.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 18, 2017, 10:17:30 AM
Yes I agree. Our approach of the roulette theory differ too much. My followers can draw their own conclusions. Without the help of the computer it is impossible to judge systems and make predictions.
.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on July 19, 2017, 08:12:02 AM
Every system needs a strategy. For the streets, I suggest to note the occurrence of the 12 streets. Start flat betting on the street after a sleep of 36 spins. Hit and run after a profit. You record 12 streets and the expectation is that the triggers follow up soon. Sometimes you have to bet on more than one street. 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 11, 2017, 01:59:22 PM

I am preparing a roulette demo on an RNG in the fun mode.

I can show you different systems. You can try to find whether the RNG is manipulate.

The first demo, I will research  some particular bets and events of the ECs.  Later on I can do some exercises with the dozens and columns. There are a lot of possibilities.

On a note sheet I note the outcome of the RNG, the bets and the payout.

On the screen you see the roulette table and the note sheet.

If you are interested, send an email rouletteplayersclub@hotmail.nl and tell me your preference day and time (W.E.T.)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 12, 2017, 10:16:36 AM

For the demo I can use different roulette games.
The site offers Netent and Playngo games. Playngo roulette image is very simple.
With the demo I also will show you the use of the note sheed.
After a number of spins the note sheet can create diagrams of the past bets, payouts and the profit.
If you are an online player the use of the note sheed is vary useful.
After some practice everybody can handle the sheed.
Perhaps I see you with the demo.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 13, 2017, 09:40:21 AM

Another note scheet for the dozens and the columns.

The sheets are a very good tool for playing on internet

If you install the programs on your iPad then you can take it with you to the land based casino.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 13, 2017, 09:20:45 PM

The game of the dices is very popular. There are also many systems and strategies for  the double streets.

I have also programed  a note scheet for the DS. Page one are the ECs, page 2 are the dozens and the columns and page 3 the double streets .
During the event you can switch from page to page.

Playing and note requires some practice.

Soon I will demonstrate the use of the note sheets. Be patience.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 14, 2017, 08:39:49 AM

There are a lot of viewers, but no remarks. So I wonder if there is interest for such note sheets.
Especial for playing on internet , sheets can be very helpful. On demand my program is free available.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 14, 2017, 08:38:04 PM
The programs can also be used for research. Here example1 for a flat betting system on red.
You can make the largeness of the sample. The diagram of the profit is for a100 spins sample.100 Spins is a short run sample, the final result can be a profit or a loss.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 15, 2017, 09:07:10 PM

For this second example , I bet contrary low or high  with one unit.

The diagram is again for 100 spins.

Basically there is no difference with the first example.

I did not program La Partage and a stop in the last 10 spins.

Tomorrow I will continue this row with more systems.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 16, 2017, 02:26:26 PM

This example is a Martingale. I betted on Red. I did not program a trigger, La Partage or a stop in the last 10 spins.
Without a bust the profit about 50% of the number of spins.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 17, 2017, 09:06:29 PM

In the very past i have played also a parlay system on the ECs.
In this example I bet on Red and After a win the bet is doubled. The problem is ,when do you except the payout. In this case I withdraw the payout after 4 repeaters in the Red. You must have iron nerves and a lot of time.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 18, 2017, 07:32:38 PM
Here the two dozens bet of scepticus.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 19, 2017, 08:26:22 PM

Now two examples for the double streets. The first example I play flat on 5 double streets with 10 units. This is a 31 number bet. I expect that the DTOP is about 100 spins. Most samples finish after the DTOP with a loss.

The second example plays contrary. That is a 6 number bet. The DTOP lies above the 250 spins. The graph shows much more fluctuations.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on August 19, 2017, 08:53:50 PM

Here the two dozens bet of scepticus.
Nope!
You haven't a clue dobbelsteen.
You are clearly wrong  so you should apologise to me  for making the  false accusation that this is " The two dozen bet of scepticus".
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 20, 2017, 08:52:38 AM
scep see post 1303. I have copied the description of the system from your topic. I do not judge the system, I only made a program for research. Everybody can make his own conclusions. I have nothing to apologize. Perhaps you do not call the system Scepticus two dozens bet. You are the writer of that system.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on August 20, 2017, 12:38:11 PM

Dobbel
My spins are paired , Is yours ?
I am talking about PARTICULAR doubles not ANY doubles.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 21, 2017, 09:31:14 AM
Scep I have no idea what you mean with paired spins or particular doubles. Are these a kind of triggers?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 21, 2017, 12:44:36 PM

A very long time ago i have developed the next system.
Suppose the last numbers are : 16 -31- 24-5. Sceps notification is 2-3-2-1. Once in 81 spins this row repeat. The chance on a repeater is very smal. Now I bet that this will not happens. Now you have to bet  two dozens. The first step on 2-3 (one unit), second step 1-3 (3 units), third step 1-2 (9 units) and the fourth step. 1-3 (27 units). Every hit of every step give a win of one unit. The final risk 80 units.

Basically it is a 24 number bet. DTOP is very small. That means that after about 120 spins you reach the point of nearly almost a loss session.

Sometimes I use this system after a virtual 2 steps loss. The risk is minimized to 8 units .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 22, 2017, 11:30:11 AM

I have programmed the 4 step double dozens system. The system is very dangerous. The zero and the repeater are killing. The program has a stop after the fourth step. Very small sessions can be very profitable.

Here the image of my study of a winning session.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 25, 2017, 08:50:38 PM

 Dobbelsteen theory
I have done and do much research at the random sequences of the roulette. I have developed the short and long run theory. All opponents of roulette will tell you that the results are random, independent and unpredictable. A profit is always luck.
The roulette has an advantage of 2,7% ( one zero roulette) and on the long run everyone will lose. Nobody can tell you what long run means.

My research has learned me that the long run depends on the kind of bet. Basically there are 37 number bets. The 37 number bet has a long run of 0 spins and a one number bet over 1M spins. It is a myth that every wagering kind shall end with a loss of 2,7%.

I have found that every system has a point from where a permanent loss occurs. I have called that point DTOP.
A graph of the occurrence result shows that the result fluctuates. In the beginning the peaks and valley are very high and low. There is a large unbalance of the results. This unbalance has the feature to stabilize. For example this is the case for Red and Black when The ratio R/B is 1. The long run starts.

Where can a player fetch his profit? This is only possible in the first 100 spins. This is a normal play session of a player. A simple system and bank management is enough.
The ECs, the  dozens, the columns and DS are the best table chances. Before starting your bets ,study the history of the last 20 spins and the stats of the last 50 spins. The peaks and valleys are easy recognizable.
The theory of probabilities is very useful for the earlier called chances. The triangle of Blaise Pascal give you fast the probabilities of the ECs. A method of mixed bets is most profitable and spread the risk. The chance, you will fall  in the mouse trap of a variance is very small. Nobody can predict the number of the next spin. Gamblers Fallacy does not exist for a real player.
The knowledge of the short run is the basis for developing a good method. Long run test of systems are very interested and prove,  systems cannot beat the roulette. Your advantage is in the short run.
The number of systems is infinity. There will be always individuals who try to find a Holy Grail. The losers are the fish for the sharks.
The pleasure of playing with the random rows is , why I am a passionate roulette player.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on September 25, 2017, 09:19:25 PM
Have you tried testing multiple selections simultaneously?  Like all 3 Dozens at once?  I think we shall notice a difference in one of them in every trial...
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 26, 2017, 08:33:57 AM

I have made so many Excel programs to analyse the different table chances.

Here an example of the occurrence of the DSs. The interest in my research is not very popular.

Roulette is a very simple game. The problem is to beat the advantage of the roulette. This is only possible with simple systems and strategies. A large number of small profits makes a fortune.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: thomasleor on September 26, 2017, 11:22:05 AM


Roulette is indeed a simple game Dobbelsteen. To most the problem is that they cannot read the variance curve of their bet selections versus the number generation of the wheel.

Here is a simple platform I developed some time ago for those in my team that likes betting on double streets. The platform tracks the spun numbers and offers bet on two bets performing double streets in any given spin. That means 12 numbers and of course way better than the ordinary dozen play the casino offers with its three dozen marked on the table.

The platform displays three variance curves, each one showing the variance of the best performing Double streets including the double streets combinations it is bound to as to cover the entire table (the other two windows)

(http://i63.tinypic.com/2lk90ld.png)

The best going in this example from a session against an online Casino live dealer roulette (Casino International), is the top curve in the first window. It shows DS 1-6 and DS 19-24 has so far made a 49% hit-rate, compared to the blind bet probability of 32.4% for any given 12 number selection.

The platform found this Chart (7) very early in the game, and also in the midst of a previously winning chart, but this chart with a way better variance curve. Once the break out, as seen in the image below,  was a fact, I started betting on the variance curve as it started ascending into positive green territory, scoring 6 clean wins out of 7, making a nice +22 units on that break out which with an earlier chart that also offered me an opportunity earn a nice profit on a positive variance ride made this session ending in a total profit of 46 units before I stopped the game having reach a nice day target.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/f9nifq.png)

So, yes, I agree with your assessment that roulette is a simple game and being able to read a variance curve of your bet-selection against its infinite generation of numbers is not so hard once you learn said language like any other language in order to be able to understand what is said.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on September 26, 2017, 01:14:50 PM
Dobble, I don't think there enough spins to really see a pattern yet.  What we see is the wild fluctuations of an early game where many DS change positions.  Can you do 500 spins?

Awesome thoughts Thomas!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on September 26, 2017, 03:08:38 PM

Thomas
How many  spins do you track to obtain your " advantage " ?
I assume these are Live spins ?
Thanks
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: thomasleor on September 26, 2017, 03:36:12 PM
There are two tracking settings on the platform (bottom right corner).

0 - Locked mode - which means the Platform locks the the chart of your choice and displays only the two double streets u follow and want to play on a specific term of spins ahead. In the background you will be informed if better charts shows up with higher hitrated street combinations during the game. If so u just input the chart number and you are in the next chart of your choice.

1 - AutoSelect on -  The Platform scans all combinations of streets from the first spin to the last one of your casino session and picks out the best one for you as the game progresses.

The user starts reading and betting the Omicron (Omicron being a greek letter O) curve after minimum 20 spins, but a minimum of 25 spins is recommended so the Omicron Curve can mature and be viable for chart analysis. As you see I started earlier here, but the curves were so good I just started the game a bit earlier.

Yes these spins was from a  game at Casino International (Unibet proxy feed) three days ago.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: MrPerfect. on September 26, 2017, 04:54:35 PM
Thomas, could you please explain how to lock the chart? Or post some link to where such thing is explained.  Very interesting! !!!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: thomasleor on September 26, 2017, 05:49:59 PM

It is simple. The platform is designed for instantenous switches between different modes of chart projection and analysis, considering the bet-window in most online Casinos I use are between 30 seconds - 1 minute.

In the first image you see the charting part of the platform in AutoSelect On mode. It scans all doublestreet combinations and presents in the image the currently best performing according to certain criteria.

Chart 7 is chosen here and you see three Omicron Curves plotting the variance curve and hit rate of the bet selections to the right of the chart. Even an edge is displayed below the colored sidebars telling the user if the Cano has the edge (red) or the player (green).

The chart themselves (green red) go up and down, with green, or red color dominating, depending how high or low the Curves go.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/wupi5z.png)

In the next image you see the platform now locked on Chart 1 (green button on upper right), I choose to type in that chart number manually and thus lock the chart there by typing 0 on the bottom right corner which returns "Manual Select On".

The Platform is now locked on chart 1 for as long as I leave the Chart choosing mode on 0 on the bottom right, or type in another chart number on the upper right green button.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/10dabmp.png)

If you notice here the chart 1 is the default dozens 1-12  13 -24  25-36 made by the double streets. As you also may notice, the hit rate of this chart is way lower than the best Chart 7 in the first image and hence not an option in this game.

I hope this answers your question.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on September 26, 2017, 08:24:36 PM
So not suitable for a B&M casino ?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: thomasleor on September 26, 2017, 08:37:27 PM
The Omicron Protocol is perfect for Landbased Casinos. In a far simpler version of course, but still very effective. So far tests performed by my team has shown a yield of around +10 to +20 units per 60 spins. Not much, but if you implement high value chips the ROI on an equal sized Bankroll is fully acceptable.

Personally I prefer playing online against the wheel with a very advanced version that scans best wheel partitions during a set of evolving variance curves from a specific spectrum of bet selections. The return is usually somewhere between +150 to +300 units per session of 60-100 spins.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on September 26, 2017, 09:06:33 PM
Inside Bets / Outside Bets ?
Bankroll size ?
Flat Bets  / Progressions ?
Thanks
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: thomasleor on September 26, 2017, 09:16:47 PM
Implementing the Landbased Omicron Protocol means that you have to keep things simple and specific in order to be able to divide your time between spins (bet window) efficiently. 

The steps are three:  Notation - OP analysis - Bet selection.

Bankroll is usually 10-20 units which corresponds to expected return on investment (ROI). The difference in BR size depends on your ability to read the OP and of course experience of playing in a Landbased Casino enviroment.

All bet selections are inside bets, never outside. All bets are flat bets.

We tested for a while various POSITIVE progressions but decided to keep the bet size simple as the return was dominantly positive from all recorded sessions.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: scepticus on September 27, 2017, 07:26:45 AM
Sounds good  .
!0 / 20 unit bank .
 Betting 2 DS ?
Liked the graph but not the idea. Not enough info .
Still, each to his own .

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 27, 2017, 01:08:11 PM
Thomas I know a lot about random rows. Your approach is new for me. I am a newbie. For a newbie, your pictures need more explanation. I have no idea how to use the charts.
When I go to my B&M casino, what tools do I bring with me.
 Pen and paper, a preprinted note sheet, a computer and what else?
How many,  where and when I must place my bets?

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 27, 2017, 01:20:54 PM
Here two rows of 6 reds. The first one R_R_R_R_R_R and the second one R_R_R_R_R_R. At first sight they are the same. In the next reply I will explain the significant differs. The one is more special than the other one.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 28, 2017, 01:33:30 PM

The source of the rows is the random number row. For all the table chances the number row creates a random row.
What makes a particular row ( PR) more special than another. This is caused by the feature that a PR can be also a PR in other random rows. The probability  of a PR in the different random rows is not the  same, except the random rows of the same kind of chance.

For the mathematicians the question, how many 6RED PR can the roulette random generator create??
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on September 28, 2017, 01:51:54 PM
Approx. .01833 or 1 in 55?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 29, 2017, 10:05:18 AM

The question ,how many 6Red PR are possible , is very complex. Deny the zero makes it a little bit simpler. The number of 6 rows is 36^6. The 18 red numbers can create 18^6 . My conclusion is that there are so many possibilities that you have not wait a long time for a 6PR. Now back to the roulette.

1) 3-7-32-21-34-18.
This row looks very chaotic. There are many of this kind.
2) 3-7 - 18-5-14-7
This one is more special. The numbers are not only Red but also low.
3)  3-7 -27-9- 21-5.
This one is RED and ODD
4)  1-7-19-25-34-16
This RED one  has also 6 figures in column one.

There are plenty PR which are more special.
These features make it possible to play particular strategies.
 
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on September 29, 2017, 04:05:51 PM

With an Excel program I have make the PRs visible.

The first picture shows the program.

The second picture are the results of the three ECs.

The third picture the diagrams from two and three ECs together.

Coinciding peaks make a PR special.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 26, 2017, 07:58:26 AM
I am preparing a live roulette demo on internet with real money. MrPerfect has asked for it.He want only a demo with real money. I am the meaning that there is no difference between the Real money or fun mode. In the fun mode you get a large number of credits and you can take more risk.
With real money I start with a small balance and I must very careful with low risk.

There are plenty internet casinos. They use the games of different software profiders.Most casinos offer about 7 different roulette games. All games have in common the French roulette wheel The difference between the games are the secondary rules. The casinos have also  not the same  rules.

For my kind of play I must be free in when, what and how much I bet. The roulette should start to spin when I am ready with my bets. The roulette must  also spin when i am waiting for triggers. I am the boss.

At this moment I try  a game from Roxy Palace. Interested in the demo stay in touch or let me know.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 26, 2017, 11:58:20 AM
 Dobbelsteen,  l wouldn't see a difference between real money and fun money either..  if it's real wheel.
   It's a common practice in funny money on rng to allow player to win in order to encorage him playing with real money.
  Hope you make them pay. Fingers crossed.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 28, 2017, 08:45:16 AM
Mr Perfect if you are convinced that in the fun mode the RNG let you win, then the RNG is not fair. this means that in the real mode the RNG can be manipulated to .Yes I also distrust the internet providers. For  a demo the RNG is not important. I will show my manner of attacking the roulette edge. I will try to beat the roulette.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 28, 2017, 09:56:56 AM

Now I have promised to show a demo , I have to find the right internet provider.
On my research journey in the chaotic world of internet, I invite you to accompany me.
The Dutch language may not be a problem. It is not necessary to read the pictures
First I will look for the right site. I look for "roulette strategy".

(http://i63.tinypic.com/2na3b82.gif)

There are so many sites that it is very difficult to make a choice.

Now I look for  "free roulette games".

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2dqlh7d.jpg).

You see that there is enough to try.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/28ckl03.gif)

With all that free sites it is very difficult to find the way. With trial and error I look further.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/b5gmsg.jpg).

I have found  Krooncasino. This casino is settled on Malta and is focused on the Dutch internet gambles.Kroon offers a lot of different games. There are 7 roulette games with small different rules. The games use all the  French wheel .There must be a possibility to play in fun. here the low limit game.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/118f7uf.gif).

(http://i67.tinypic.com/118f7uf.gif)

(http://i67.tinypic.com/rbfzm9.gif) 

(http://i63.tinypic.com/a2d7rq.gif)

This is an example of a web killer. You visit the site and walk around, but you do not become the time to learn the in and outs of the site

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 31, 2017, 11:03:21 AM


Now I will describe the roulette klassiek game.
(http://i63.tinypic.com/i6h2ra.jpg)

This is a low budget game the smallest unit is 0,01.
The start amount is 1000 euro. This should be enough for a progressive betting scheme. I prefer a unit of 1 euro. I do not like the balance in money. to spin you must place a bet.
After clicking the spin button the window changes.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/rbfzm9.jpg)

The turning wheel is a fake.  A RNG creates  the number. A special phenomenon is that the handles move contrary the wheel.
After the ball has landed, a history board appears with the fallen number. The board is very small with small figures.
After clearing the table the history board disappear.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/300d66g.gif)

You make very easy wrong bets and for strategy players I can not recommend this game.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/25s75sh.gif)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 08, 2017, 10:23:18 PM

flower power analyzed
The flower power system is a mixed system of a  number bet and a one number bet. If you place  one unit on
14 16 18 20 and 2 unit on 17 then it must be clear.
The DTOP is  more than 1000 spins. Long run test do not have sense.
For my analyses i will simulate 200 spins samples. The theory tells that the result is unpredictual. A win  or a loss is possible.
The progression is:
step 1   10 spins 4 units
step 2   10 spins 8 units
step 3   10 spins  16 units
step 4   15 spins   32 units
step 5     4 units

The key number is 17. When 17 falls less than 5 times, the sample is mostly negative. Events of more than 40 no-hits are not rare.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/2hq8d21.gif)

The flower is a bet in the second dozen. You can play the flower power also with a strategy. Start the flower power after a no-hit event of 10 dozen 2 .
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: kav on November 09, 2017, 12:54:45 AM
dobbel,
Your thread has reached now 99.155 views. And hopefully not all of them are yours ;-)
Seriously this is probably the most viewed roulette thread in the world. We should find a way to celebrate the 100K views.
Keep up the good work!
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 13, 2017, 10:23:24 PM

I thank all my readers of my blog. With very much pleaser, I have shared my knowledge and experience with the guests and the members of this friendly roulette site. I have also learned a lot from the discussions and the explanation of the different meanings. In my Nederenglish I have tried to explain my roulette theory to newbies and experts. I hope  you have as much pleaser roulette gaming as I.
 Best regards.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 15, 2017, 10:08:15 AM

The last days I did some practice on different casino sites. Live roulette and auto roulette are not suitable for a demos. They offer insufficiënt time to make your decisions and place the chips. I have prepared my computer to share the window with a note paper and the roulette. I shall note every spin end afterwards I can make the diagrams of the in- and output.
I use different chances, systems and betting schemes. On the first site my manner is very complex. The demo has not the goal to explain my game.
Here some most used triggers,
EC triggers:
R-B-R-B-R-B-R-B-R
B-B-R-R-R-R-R-R-
12-30-4-16-18-24-31-3-3-23 (SSB)
Dozens and Columns triggers:
2-3-25-32-34-27.
12-14-8-24-22-5-1-9-21
4-15-3-36-1-18 (SSB)
DS triggers (game of dices):
1-5: 33-36: 14-18: 2-3-5: 32-32-34:
SS triggers:
1-4-15: 12-12-34

The bets for mixed triggers are complex.

Try to discover why these examples are triggers.

I have the intention to play a demo Friday morning W.E.T.

On this place I shall publish the inlog key code.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on November 15, 2017, 02:05:18 PM
R-B-R-B-R-B-R-B-R -- 8 repititions of chop
B-B-R-R-R-R-R-R- -- 6 repititions of streak
12-30-4-16-18-24-31-3-3-23 (SSB) -- obvious
Dozens and Columns triggers:
2-3-25-32-34-27. -- 6 spins without the 2nd DZ (or 4 spins same DZ)
12-14-8-24-22-5-1-9-21 --
4-15-3-36-1-18 (SSB)
DS triggers (game of dices):
1-5: 33-36: 14-18: 2-3-5: 32-32-34:
SS triggers:
1-4-15: 12-12-34



Hey Dobble, can you do GAP SPECIFIC DTOP's where a session that gaps a certain amount will be considered a loss but before that, its winning?  Specifically a 27 step progression on a DS?  At any 27 spin gap its a full session loss.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 16, 2017, 03:24:36 PM
@Reyth:For the double street there are two methods to play. You can wager on a DS or wager on 5 FS. The single DS is a 6 number bet with a large DTOP and the 5DS system a very small DTOP.
I can program a large permanence of the DS. The diagram of such  a permanence shows all the gaps.
There are also possibilities to caont othe phenomenona.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on November 16, 2017, 06:09:12 PM
What is 5 FS?  Wouldn't this be 6 straight up numbers?

I am planning to run a gap analysis on a single DS, so its good to know I am moving in the right direction. :)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 17, 2017, 09:35:43 AM
I am now on internet. If you want to participate, goto go.mikogo.com inlog key 168-110-951

You are free to entrance or leave the session.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 17, 2017, 10:01:11 AM

On the forum, I see plenty guest and members.

You are welcome to participate the demo.

Login is very easy.

I play on Oranje casino in the fun mode. Goto: go .mikogo.com key: 168 110 951
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 18, 2017, 08:47:24 AM

The number of systems is infinite. A system has fixed rules and is mostly easy to analyze and simulate. Simulation reports can abroad your knowledge of the game.
A player session is always a short run event. The result is unpredictable.
On the roulette strategy threads you can find very less about the roulette strategy. The cause is, that a strategy is very difficult to describe and to explain.
A strategy use all the features , statistic rules and features. Videos show much simple the method a player uses. For real events demos are more suitable.

Yes I am a little disappointed. There was only one participant watching my demo. I played about 90 minutes an had a profit of 120 units. May be the next time some participants more.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: vitorwally on November 18, 2017, 12:05:23 PM
@dobbelsteen
I would watch if I hadn't business of my own to deal with during the week, and somehow in the weekend as well. Anyway, I think if you want to boost your audience you must do your live demos on the weekend. You will probably be able to gather more participants.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on November 18, 2017, 04:42:39 PM
I was wishing that you would record the video and post that so we all can watch when we are available.  :'(
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 19, 2017, 10:15:06 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pm9LswKsyhk

Some years ago I had a website  "learn play roulette" for the Dutch roulette players. In this video I explained the roulette strategy. In that time I used my video recorder to record my computer. The quality is very bad and the view over is Dutch. See this video as an example
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 20, 2017, 04:49:41 PM

Reyth

I have programmed the gabs of the double streets.
Here the results of a 500 spins sample.
The largest gab is 32 spins.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/16gbom8.jpg)

(http://i65.tinypic.com/2jebmh2.gif)

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2ai989.gif)

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on November 20, 2017, 05:33:24 PM
Thank you!  I see there is no reliable DTOP for gaps in general.  I guess I would need to specify the hottest DS every time.  Thanks! :D
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 21, 2017, 11:26:27 AM

The analyse shows that a gab of occurrence of a DS is very rare more than 30spins.
With this knowledge ,I have programmed the DS with the next progression.
Betting start after a virtual loss of ten spins.
I bet on all 6 DS.
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2u4nhjt.gif)

Here the end of the 500 spins sample.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/17qus7.gif)

The program gives mostly a profit. It is a short run event and you must also expect negative samples.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/34pmjaf.gif)

(http://i68.tinypic.com/330wtaq.gif)
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on November 21, 2017, 02:06:31 PM
Interesting! Great point about the 30 gap!!

What was your progression and what happened on the 4th sample?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 21, 2017, 03:46:37 PM
The first picture shows the betting steps and progression.
This is a selection of e large number of samples. you need  many samples to draw a conclusion.
Samples of 150 spins create a more beautiful permanence. The chance voor a large gap is then smaller.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on November 28, 2017, 10:03:37 AM

From the analyze of the DS system you can learn a lot about the cabs of a 6 number bet. The result of the system is unpredictable while every session is a short run event. You can influence the result by the right progression or better by a strategy. The described DS system is  a kind of the game of the dices. Descriptions of the game of the dices , you can find elsewhere in the blog.
Most players use the deviations or the variance of the past numbers. A variance  is a large particular streak in a small sample. For example a 6 event of consecutive Red is normal for a 64 sample but for a 32 sample it is a variance. Such variances I call positive variances. Contrary every positive variance there is a negative variance and that are the gabs. When I play the game of the dices, I bet mostly on the dice  ( DS), I do not expect.
On these principles you can develop winning strategies.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on November 29, 2017, 02:04:34 AM
Great!

A very interesting output would be:

Each DS (11) line charted & color coded.  Displaying NUMBER OF CUMULATIVE HITS (y-axis) for 1000 spins (x-axis).

Every time we run this, we will see the following features:

Focus -- There will be one clear front runner
Disparity -- Multiple front runners (usually 2-4)
Switch -- The previous front runner will be replaced by a new one

We will see more time spent in Focus than Disparity and many times Switch will be quite rare, once there is a front runner.

We will also see one particular selection that will be the "second" front runner along with the front runner and usually that selection will replace the front runner, at some point.

A front runner will be obtained within the first 300 spins.

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 09, 2017, 10:48:34 AM

The neighbors and systems
On this forum you can find a lot about systems of the table layout wagers and less about neighbor systems.
What possible is on the table is also possible on the wheel.
Hereby a analyse of a neighbor system simular to the DS of the table.

I divide the wheel in six neighbors and give them a ranking  1 to 6.
For example NE 1 the neighbors 0-2;NE 2 25-13; NE 3 36-10;NE 4 5-20 ; NE 5 14- 29 ; NE 6 7-26
NE 1 has 7 figures and the other 6.

With Excel I make a permanence of the occurrence of each NE for a 150 spins sample.
See the picture.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/kapmjq.gif)

This analyze, you can use for developing systems. Here my program for the Dobbelsteen triangle. Sum the  last fallen 2 figures. The sum varies between 2 and 12.The graphic has a shape of a triangle.

Hereby the picture and the data.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/i1mngo.gif)

You can use the triangle for a strategy

Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: Reyth on December 09, 2017, 03:26:26 PM
WOOT WOOT!  Awesome!!!

Thank you so much for posting this! 

Now I understand that I can look more deeply into neighbor systems with the understanding that they are trying to capitalize on the LotT clustering!

For some reason I didn't realize this until I read this post! >.<

If this was the felt, it would represent the strongest form of clustering where the focus is concentrated in a single region (5,6,7).  The reason I mention this is because I have consistently noticed that regions that gap will pull down their neighbors AND the region that represents the 2nd strongest (6,7) is the greatest threat to the dominant region, usually replacing it at some point which can cause the dominant region to gap.

I think it is much better to overlap the regions (11 DS)?

I must say that I don't understand why the "sum" would work in a bet selection?
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 11, 2017, 02:08:52 PM

 Reyth the  row of the sum of the latest NE is also a random row .The gab between the number 7 can be used as a trigger.
Here something else. There is always a struggle between  a positive and a negative progression.   For the fun I have programmed SSB with a positive Martingale wager system. This shows 512-256-128-64-32-16-8-4-2-1

Most samples of 100 spins were negative.

Here an example of the program with the graphics of 3 samples

(http://i63.tinypic.com/315lkpw.gif)

(http://i64.tinypic.com/2emofls.gif)
Title: Defending Mr Dobblesteen
Post by: Fyodor on December 14, 2017, 03:42:06 AM
Very disappointing to see personal attacks on the integrity of Mr Dobblesteen.
He is a much respected senior member of this, the LAST of the impartial and independent RF's!
A balanced and reasonable discussion, where all parties have equal (qualified) opinion is a pleasure, both to read, consider and engage in.
"Dobbelsteens Blog" is the most widely read and valuable column, relating to Roulette (in particular), WORLDWIDE!!
The Casino Industry considers him an authority, (and not only in the Netherlands!)
So, be nice and let's learn, together with this ambassador and mentor.
Title: Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
Post by: dobbelsteen on December 15, 2017, 02:53:57 PM
The classic table layout has 157 possibilities to wager on. I have restricted the 157 possibilities  to 37 different number bets. The wheel has only 37 possibilities, but this number of possibilities can be enlarged with many possibilities like those of the tabel. A 2 neighbor bet is the same as a split, a 3 neighbor bet is the same as a Street , a 6 neighbor is the same as a DS etc. The high red and the low black numbers are a 18 neighbor bet on the right side half of the wheel and is the same as a EC.
From all these different neighbor bets the computer can creates random sequences with the same features of the table wagers.
Systems developed for the table layout can also be played  for the neighbor wagers. B&M and live online roulette  can experience much more roulette pleasure.
There is one important difference, the neighbor bet must be played with straight numbers. This means that theoretically the neighbor player loose 6 times more money than the DS player