Author Topic: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems  (Read 935 times)

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Reyth

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #45 on: February 12, 2018, 07:39:37 AM »
Well a biased number IS a hot number (or hot numbers); if it wasn't then there would be no advantage to betting it.  The difference is that a true AP player can take data from a wheel during a particular month and then come back another month and find the same results.

Does that mean system players can derive no advantage from playing hot numbers? 

Roulette will always provide groupings of hot numbers that extend over an entire spin sequence and I believe that being in touch with these guaranteed numbers is a very important part of any roulette system (i.e. bet selection).

Furthermore, I think system players can have this in common with AP players where it is even possible for a certain "blurring of the lines" where we can get common reads with AP players because we are both looking for the same thing -- numbers that consistently repeat.  I have watched this phenomenon persist for many thousands of spins (the same numbers) and there is no way it could be physical bias because I play RNG. :)

There MUST be bias in random sequences.  It is simply a statistical fact.  A perfectly balanced random sequence is on the order of impossible, increasing in improbability the longer the sequence extends.

There is a certain "statistical momentum" where the longer a group of numbers are biased, the more likely it is that they will remain so and there must always be numbers that remain so.  The more numbers get ahead, the more likely it is that they will stay ahead.

If I was to try and give it a new name I would call it:

LotTx

Where "x" is the length of the sequence. :)
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 08:22:02 AM by Reyth »
 
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MickyP

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #46 on: February 12, 2018, 07:52:55 AM »
Now that makes sense Reyth. Logic at its best. Nice post.
 

kav

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #47 on: February 12, 2018, 07:53:45 AM »
Reyth,
The range of spin sampling makes all the difference.
I believe a "biased" number, by AP definition, was hot in the research sampling, but can be cold, for a given number of spins, in the future. The range/snapshot of spins we a re looking at, can make all the difference. Different snapshots, different performance of the numbers.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #48 on: February 12, 2018, 08:14:32 AM »
Yes, this kind of data from an experienced AP player can be very valuable to us.  I prefer a 99% probability with any group of numbers I work with because I run a tight ship and wouldn't have it any other way.

However there is always a constant snapshot that applies across all sequences, the "x", which is the entire sequence itself -- its one BIG LotT.  The LotT does not equal 37 spins, it equals "x" spins. :D
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 08:19:49 AM by Reyth »
 
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cht

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #49 on: February 12, 2018, 10:50:34 AM »
Good post DrTalos.

Explain away - it's about time.
 

MickyP

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #50 on: February 13, 2018, 04:34:05 AM »
Kav, I fail to understand your snapshot reasoning where biased numbers are concerned. What you have put forward is the behavior of a hot number. According to explanations in this thread there is a fundamental difference between a hot and a biased number. Both hit more than expectation and pinpointing when they will hit remains a guess. I don't get it.

Maybe an AP player could try and explain how a biased number is bet.
 
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Mike

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #51 on: February 13, 2018, 09:14:15 AM »
I see this thread has now taken a new turn, but instead of replying individually to posts by palestis, scepticus, and Reyth, I just want to draw attention to their Ad Hominems, which can be summarised thus:

  • Mike doesn't believe in systems, therefore his arguments are invalid.
  • Mike doesn't play roulette, therefore his arguments are invalid.
  • Mike is sick, therefore his arguments are invalid. (nice one Reyth!)
  • Mike has lost a lot of money playing roulette in the past, therefore his arguments are invalid.
  • Mike repeatedly posts the same arguments, therefore they are invalid.
  • Mike constantly disrupts threads, therefore his arguments are invalid.
  • Mike is "negative", therefore his arguments are invalid.
  • Mike is a "fundamentalist", therefore his arguments are invalid.
And my personal favourite:
  • Mike is only here to argue, therefore his arguments are invalid.
If you don't know what "Ad Hominem" means, read about it here.  Also note the "Tip" at the foot of the page:

Quote
Tip: When others verbally attack you, take it as a compliment to the quality of your argument.  It is usually a sign of desperation on their part.

OK, I will. Thanks guys.
 

Mike

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #52 on: February 13, 2018, 09:44:36 AM »
So, moving on.

According to explanations in this thread there is a fundamental difference between a hot and a biased number. Both hit more than expectation and pinpointing when they will hit remains a guess.

I'm not sure where it's been explained what the difference is? Unless I've misunderstood him, Reyth seems to be suggesting that there is no difference. True, a biased number is "hot", but a "hot" number is not necessarily biased. You say that "both hit more than expectation", but I assume you're talking about the expectation of a non-biased wheel. A non-biased wheel won't hit more than expectation - any temporary deviation from expectation (which by definition is "long term") is accounted for by variance, not bias.

There isn't any hard boundary which demarcates a biased wheel from a non-biased wheel; but if you record more and more spins and the results don't approach expectation then you can be increasingly sure that the wheel is biased. But biased is more efficiently identified visually. That's what Real's book is about and he's an expert on it.
 
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kav

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #53 on: February 13, 2018, 09:58:20 AM »
Mike,
I believe you are a very valuable voice in our forum and I always express my admiration for the quality of your posts. I admit you may have been unfairly received or treated, because people often group all "naysayers" or "AP players" into one entity, instead of seeing the differences of their approach to the discussion.

There is a Greek/Persian proverb: “When there's fire, wet and dry burn together” which means the innocent pay along with the guilty. Or in English, throw the baby out with the bath water.

I think this is the problem and I would like to apologize if you have felt offended or unwelcome. On the contrary we appreciate your participation very much. And I believe I speak for the vast majority of the readers.
 
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MickyP

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #54 on: February 13, 2018, 10:13:35 AM »
Mike I'm non the wiser and Real's officially unpublished book can not be traced to clarify the matter.

If a number has been identified as biased; how do AP take advantage of this phenomenon? The same way as betting hot numbers? AP do not chase a number when betting and they don't bet for tens of spins never mind hundreds of spins.

 

Mike

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #55 on: February 13, 2018, 10:24:24 AM »
Thanks Kav, I appreciate it. No need to apologise. It can be frustrating at times, especially when I'm lumped in with other perceived "AP"s and called a troll, negative, etc. Although I no longer play much roulette, I'm still quite passionate about the game and its possibilities, believe it or not. I also feel compelled to speak out when I perceive that something is mistaken or unjust, and sometimes that can seem like a curse.  ;D

 

mr j

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #56 on: February 13, 2018, 10:33:43 AM »
especially when I'm lumped in with other perceived "AP"s

 ::)
 
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Mike

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #57 on: February 13, 2018, 10:34:37 AM »
If a number has been identified as biased; how do AP take advantage of this phenomenon? The same way as betting hot numbers?

Yes, same way. Just bet the hell out of those numbers for as long as the bias exists. If the bias has been identified visually, and a sample of spins confirms it, there's no need to worry that the bias will suddenly vanish as conventional hot numbers can (as long as you periodically check that the bias is still present and there are no new conditions which undermine it).

Hopefully Real will return and give a more detailed reply. He's the expert, not me.
 
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MickyP

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #58 on: February 13, 2018, 10:45:09 AM »
Thank you Mike.
Biased numbers can like other numbers sleep for a long time. Maybe Real is the only person qualified enough to answer these questions.
In the meantime I'll stick to my mango theory.
 ;D
 
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palestis

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #59 on: February 13, 2018, 11:47:20 AM »
Biased means it shows up more often that its probability dictates. (though casinos have better ways to determine bias than a player and correct it).
But If a biased number doesn't show up for 200 spins, and shows up a little more frequently after that, what good is it?.  Biased doesn't mean a number shows up 2+ times in 37 spins , all the time.
(If that was the case there would be no need for systems). 
However if you look for biased numbers based of wheel defects, you may have to do a lot of traveling all around the world. Modern casinos don't have wheel defect problems.
Do you really believe a player can find bias, and the casino is sleeping?
However coincidental bias or dealer or wheel signature bias, exists and the casinos can do nothing about it.
This kind of bias you can take advantage of, but unless action is not taken quickly it goes away as it only lasts very short time.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 11:48:54 AM by palestis »
 
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