BetOnline

Author Topic: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems  (Read 938 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Mike

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 795
  • Thanked: 117 times
Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« on: February 10, 2018, 09:43:09 AM »
In another thread, palestis wrote:

The point is that you never play a system mechanically.
You keep your eyes open for unusual circumstances and when they appear you take immediate action. EVERY SYSTEM SHOULD BE FLEXIBLE, to adapt to unusual conditions.

As far as I'm concerned, ALL systems are "mechanical" by definition. What would an "nonmechanical" system look like? It's a contradiction in terms.

Whilst I agree that every system should be flexible, that doesn't mean it can't be mechanical. Being flexible means you have a rule for every situation, and because there may be many situations it implies there must be many rules. Either you follow the rules of the system or you don't. If you don't then you're making up rules as you play, which can't possibly have any merit because those "rules" are untested and  based on nothing but guesses. A rule doesn't have to be "rigid", either; you can have "fuzzy" rules, but a system which sometimes follows the rules and sometimes doesn't (when it doesn't follow the rules, gut feelings or hunches are used), is no system at all.



 
The following users thanked this post: kav

cht

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 29
  • Thanked: 14 times
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2018, 11:13:39 AM »
Agree. There are plenty people who make adhoc discretionary hopscotch jump decisions -bet selection and bet sizing - while playing mechanical systems.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 11:18:55 AM by cht »
 

MickyP

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 752
  • Thanked: 332 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2018, 11:37:46 AM »

Systems are more than just wind-up toys.

I agree with Palestis statement.
 
The following users thanked this post: palestis

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1426
  • Thanked: 738 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2018, 02:47:47 PM »
If we call it a system, it should have rules. If it is "mechanical" or not is a matter of semantic. It should be at least logic, and programable for a computer, otherwise we made up the rules during the way.

We can play by other means as intuitions.

But that will I not call a system.  It can be called a system even if it contains superstition, as long there is rules. 

 

palestis

  • Great Contributor
  • *****
  • Posts: 814
  • Thanked: 743 times
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2018, 03:42:24 PM »
I think you play with words Mike.
No a system is not mechanical by definition. Just because it has rules. And breaking away from this mechanical function doesn't always mean, the rules are being changed along the way.
It could very will mean (and in most cases does), that you just stop betting and wait. What is wrong with that? And who is to say that I can't do that? Because it doesn't fit into a simulation? Who cares?
A system should not necessarily be robotic, so it can fit into a simulation computer program.
It should be flexible enough to adapt to OBVIOUS dangers. And in most cases stopping and waiting is the most appropriate action.
Players with many years of experience can vouch to that.
Following a system mechanically, and ignoring unforeseen conditions if they develop, is the main reason so many systems fail. Only the ones that are designed to handle such conditions survive
When I play VB dealer's signature, you can be assured that I stop betting as soon as I see the dealer changing from routinely slow ball speed to a much faster speed.
Wouldn't you?

 
The following users thanked this post: december, MickyP

Real

  • Fighting the war on absurdity one foolish idea at a time.
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1668
  • Thanked: 272 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2018, 04:10:48 PM »
Quote
As far as I'm concerned, ALL systems are "mechanical" by definition. What would an "nonmechanical" system look like? It's a contradiction in terms.

 

MickyP

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 752
  • Thanked: 332 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2018, 04:19:09 PM »
Palestis; Careful you don't wind Mike up with your rational response.

A system with all its rules is designed to produce a win or to reduce the loss. An experienced player will play a system for the win and will rely not only on the system but on experience as well.
We all agree that no system is infallible; even the strongest system can not cover all eventualities of the game. If an action outside the general rules of the system is exercised then it does not mean that rules are being made up as we go along. This one action if not extremely isolated may serve to amend the existing rules. This comes with experience; the experience of actually playing the game.
 

Mike

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 795
  • Thanked: 117 times
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2018, 04:23:52 PM »
When I play VB dealer's signature, you can be assured that I stop betting as soon as I see the dealer changing from routinely slow ball speed to a much faster speed.
Wouldn't you?

That's a rule : "stop betting when dealer speeds up".

My point is, if a system can't be expressed as a flowchart or algorithm, then it isn't really a system is it?

Quote
A system should not necessarily be robotic, so it can fit into a simulation computer program.

This just shows that you don't understand what programming is. A simulation can do ANYTHING a player actually does, including waiting for more spins.

"Robotic" means following the rules of the system. What's wrong with that? If you don't do this but make discretionary bets as and when you feel like it, how do you know whether your results are due to the system or to these other bets?

If a system is more than a "wind-up toy", what is this "more"?

Some players insist that "mechanical" systems can't win. They then stipulate that the missing ingredient is contained in the player himself, some vague and mystical element which is never defined, or if it is, only very vaguely. I'm not talking about basic self-discipline, which should be taken as given.

According to these guys, often when a system fails, it's not really the fault of the system, but the player.  ::)
 

Real

  • Fighting the war on absurdity one foolish idea at a time.
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1668
  • Thanked: 272 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2018, 04:28:30 PM »
Quote
stop betting when dealer speeds up".

Why can't you just adjust for each wheel speed?
 

Mike

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 795
  • Thanked: 117 times
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2018, 04:31:40 PM »
A system with all its rules is designed to produce a win or to reduce the loss. An experienced player will play a system for the win and will rely not only on the system but on experience as well.

Yes, that's it : EXPERIENCE!  ;D

So what's the difference between experience and rules? Rules are just prior experience incorporated into the system.

Experience = Rules.

What you call "experience" is just the tendency of players who use systems to justify to themselves that they do in fact work. If they worked they wouldn't have to depend on "experience" (namely, ad-hoc bets) to dig themselves out of a hole.
 

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1426
  • Thanked: 738 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2018, 04:33:27 PM »




This is a picture of a MECHANICAL  system, quantum mechanical, I think the picture is from CERN, and the red is Higgs the green is the zero situated at more than one slot at the same time.
 

Real

  • Fighting the war on absurdity one foolish idea at a time.
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1668
  • Thanked: 272 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2018, 04:35:26 PM »
Ha!  There you have it!
 

MickyP

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 752
  • Thanked: 332 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #12 on: February 10, 2018, 05:02:31 PM »
Experience is not static Mike. There is a continuous flow to experience. Read the entire post and you will understand.

DrTalos stated it beautifully in a recent comment in another thread.

We are free to make amendments  to our method of play with new found knowledge and/or with what we experience in play
 

Mike

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 795
  • Thanked: 117 times
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #13 on: February 10, 2018, 05:10:12 PM »
We all agree that no system is infallible; even the strongest system can not cover all eventualities of the game. If an action outside the general rules of the system is exercised then it does not mean that rules are being made up as we go along. This one action if not extremely isolated may serve to amend the existing rules. This comes with experience; the experience of actually playing the game.

Micky,

Is it really meaningful to say that someone who has experience of observing random numbers will be better at predicting them than someone who has no such experience? You are correct that even the strongest system can't cover all eventualities, because randomness is infinite. The tweaking will be endless, because there is no pattern to random numbers.
 

Real

  • Fighting the war on absurdity one foolish idea at a time.
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1668
  • Thanked: 272 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #14 on: February 10, 2018, 05:18:28 PM »
Quote
You are correct that even the strongest system can't cover all eventualities, because randomness is infinite.

Yes, but the house edge, or the players edge if they have one, has a much bigger influence on bankroll after enough spins have been played.  (I'm guessing that you'd agree as well.)