Author Topic: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?  (Read 2884 times)

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McCoy

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #30 on: September 03, 2017, 09:36:03 PM »

McCoy
You said you would give us some numbers you calculated.
Any progress ?

Still working on it. I may be some time.  :)
 

kav

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #31 on: September 03, 2017, 10:01:08 PM »
McCoy,
The truth is you seemed pretty certain a couple days ago that few hot numbers offer a provable advantage.
Anyway, saying you haven't found an edge yet is a honest answer, thanks.
And I have to give credit to BA who insisted in asking you about it - though not very gently.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 10:43:36 PM by kav »
 

scepticus

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #32 on: September 04, 2017, 12:08:17 AM »
McCoy,
Not Captain Oates " I may be gone for some time " ? ;D (Just joking )
« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 08:05:27 AM by kav »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #33 on: September 04, 2017, 02:05:08 AM »
BA,
 Yes one more time. I had players in mind who base their methods on " perfect wheel " model, be it systems or whatever.
    This model is based on assumption that every number is equally likely to hit... not correspond reality never!!! Math associated with such model is useless. .. anything that is based on such a math is useless as well in beating roulette.
    Adding one more number ( with same pay off) is not good for system player, bias player wouldn't care much and vb player wouldn't feel any difference.  I'm in favor to add 3 more such numbers, it would speed up the game for many ;) .
« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 08:05:59 AM by kav »
 

kav

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #34 on: September 04, 2017, 08:07:13 AM »
Guys please avoid quoting, mention the name of the poster (@Poster) and we will understand your answer is directed at him. Thanks
 

McCoy

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #35 on: September 06, 2017, 11:35:41 AM »
So you believe that if I gave you 1 chip every 100 bets you will be a winner? By betting what? Both Red and Black? By betting everything - which is like no betting at all? I'm asking for a real system. And how long is "inevitably over time"? In the challenge I specifically asked for 100% guaranteed results in say 1000 spins. Think it over there's no such system, even with the house edge in your favour. There is always a spin sequence that can beat you and you can not exclude it.

Betting an even chance with no house edge and one chip added every 100 spins. Starting bankroll = 150 units.



Same bet with 1 chip removed every 100 spins.



Coincidence?  :)

No system can *guarantee* a profit after 1000 bets so I think your condition is unreasonable. As I said, you have to look at the longer term. 50,000 bets isn't a huge number for roulette. You could easily make that many in a year and even with a small edge like this one you *would* be guaranteed a profit at the end of it.

Quote
By betting everything - which is like no betting at all?

If there was no house edge then that would work. I cover all the numbers and break even on every spin, but get 1 chip every 100 spins. That seems fair enough for the work I put in.  :)
« Last Edit: September 06, 2017, 11:55:49 AM by McCoy »
 

scepticus

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #36 on: September 06, 2017, 02:35:53 PM »

This is a progression ? over 1,000 spins ?  X% probability ?
Why such a discrepancy between ADDING 1 chip and REMOVING 1 chip ?
Thanks

 

McCoy

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #37 on: September 06, 2017, 03:27:37 PM »
No progression scepticus, level stakes. The point was to demonstrate equal edges both for and against the player. Adding 1 chip gives the player an edge, taking it away gives the house the edge. Over many spins you can see the effect even though the edge is small.
 

scepticus

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #38 on: September 06, 2017, 04:55:24 PM »

Ahh!
I thought this was an actual method you were using.
We already know that whoever has an "Edge " is the one who is more likely to win. So  what's new pussycat ?
Have you created an  Edge ?
If so ,have  you created it by analysing " past spins " ?
So. Get on with it Man !
 

McCoy

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #39 on: September 06, 2017, 05:51:09 PM »
No I haven't created a system with an edge. It was a reply to Kav's challenge.



I think I've shown that it *is* the house edge that's the problem, and you don't need to create a system to do it. *Any* system will win in this hypothetical scenario, you could pick your birthday number if you like. That doesn't mean I don't believe that a system can be created which overcomes the house edge, I'm fairly optimistic that I can do that.

The challenge doesn't really make much sense because if there is an edge in favour of the player then by definition you have beaten roulette. You don't have to create a system on top of that, unless the system *is* the edge, and in reality it must be.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2017, 05:59:30 PM by McCoy »
 

scepticus

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #40 on: September 06, 2017, 07:18:57 PM »

Well that explains it Mc Coy.
Some of us in the forum think we can overcome the HE so hopefully you can too .
How would you approach  this task ?
thanks .
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #41 on: September 06, 2017, 08:05:53 PM »
The house edge works only for more spins than the DTOP. Smaller session has about 50% chance for a win or loss.
In the past I have computed the DTOP also for the KAV bet. Kav bet played as a system has a DTOP about 120 spins. DTOP for the ECs or 18 number bets is about 150 spins. The Kav bet is a 20 number bet, that means that the DTOP is smaller than DTOP for an EC.
 

Scarface

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #42 on: September 06, 2017, 09:15:07 PM »
What does DTOP stand for?

 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #43 on: September 07, 2017, 07:19:59 AM »
@Scarface; The DTOP is  the number of spins  by which every number bet turn over from short run to long run.
 From this point the system has a permanent loss. This loss will stabelize when the  loss is 2,7%.
DTOP is not an absolute number of spins. With simulation programs this point is easy  found.

This is also the explanation that the HE is only value for long run trials. Most members ignore this phenomenon.
 

scepticus

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #44 on: September 07, 2017, 07:33:07 PM »

Scarface
I think DTOP stands for "Dobbelsteen's Turn Over Point "..