Author Topic: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?  (Read 2883 times)

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Scarface

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2017, 05:29:51 PM »
I agree with Kav.  The house edge is not the main reason we lose...it's the negative variance.  This is what is what we have to adapt to in order to win the game. 

Consider this:  let's say your average bet size is $10.  So, in 100 spins you will make $1000 in bets total.  You are expected to lose 2.7%, or $27 to the house edge.  If the casino let you pay the $27 up front as an entry free and gave to fair odds for those 100 spins, could you win? 
 
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McCoy

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2017, 08:20:40 AM »
If you want to win long term in any gambling scenario you have to take the long term view otherwise it's just pure gambling. The negative variance is not the problem and is not the reason why you lose unless you're chasing losses with a progression. That just makes things worse and increases the (negative) variance. The positive variance is just as much a factor as the negative variance, so you could say the reason why you win is because of the positive variance. If you don't have an edge then all you have is the variance, but this won't keep you in profit in the long term because volatility smooths out over time, but the house edge doesn't. The way to conquer variance is to get the edge in your favour.

The reason why I say it's better to bet on few numbers rather than many is because fewer numbers give more volatility, so it's the best way to maximize your winnings if you don't have an edge.
(see article below)
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 08:31:59 AM by kav »
 

kav

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2017, 08:31:05 AM »
Here is the article McCoy is referring to, from casinocitytimes.com by John Grochowski.

“Everything I read tells me the house has the same edge no matter what bet you make,” he wrote. “So if all bets are created equal, why have all those different bets?”

The house edge is the same, 5.26% on all bets but one on a double-zero wheel, with the exception being the five-number bet on 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3.

That’s not the same as saying all bets are created equal. The difference comes in volatility.

Spreading your bets out over many numbers gives you many chances to win on a given spin, but each win will bring a relatively low return. Concentrating more of your wagers in fewer numbers gives you a larger potential payback, but it gives you fewer chances to win.

Let’s take an extreme situation and say you and I are at a $5 minimum table and I choose to focus my full $5 per spin on a single number. You bet your $5 on black.

Per 38 spins, you and I each wager $190. On the average, my single number will come up once and the other 37 spins will be the other numbers. On my one win, I get a 35-1 payback. That’s $175 in winnings plus I keep my $5 bet on the winner, so at the end of the 38 spins I have $180.

With average results, you’ll win 18 times on black. On each, you win $5 and keep your $5 wager, so you also have $180 at the end of the trial.

The house has kept $10 of my money and $10 of your money. We’ve both faced the same house edge.

However, not every trial will bring average results. Sometimes we win more than expected; sometimes we lose more. If things didn’t work that way, there would never be the winning days that keep us coming back. Nobody would play.

What if we each have one more winner than expected? Then I pick up another 35-1 single-number winner, and have $360 at the end – a $170 profit. You pick up another 1-1 winner on black, and have $190 after 38 spins – you break even.

What if we each have one more loser than expected? Then I have no winners. I lose my whole $190. You still have 17 winners, and have $170 of your original $190.

Betting on single numbers, it takes only a small deviation from the norm to turn me into a big winner, while your bets on black would need 36 winners in 38 spins to turn the same profit I get with two single numbers.

However, I’m busted with just one fewer win than usual. You would need 18 fewer wins than normal to go bust.

Single-numbers are high-volatility bets, and black is a low-volatility bet. There’s a continuum of high to low volatility throughout the roulette layout, both on inside bets and outside bets. A two-number split has high volatility, but not as high as single numbers and higher than three-number streets, four-number corners and six-number double streets.

Twelve-number bets such as dozens and columns have low volatility, but not as low as 18-number red, black, odd, even, first 18 or last 18.

To maximize chances of winning big, focus on bets with fewer numbers, but recognize that also maximizes chances of losing fast. To extend playing time with minimum chances of losing fast but also minimum chances of winning big, bet more numbers at a time.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 08:33:04 AM by kav »
 

scepticus

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2017, 02:37:06 PM »
I use maths to choose my bets and I depend on  volatility . When I mentioned this before Real smirked.
When random favours me I take my profit and leave the table and move to another.
When Random doesn’t favour me I leave the table with a predetermined loss.
No sweat !
Too many Bettors are afraid to accept a loss even though losses are a part of ALL gambling.
Once again  -talk of THE LONG RUN is bollocks !
A better description is “ sooner or later” because too manyBettors have found that they have lost thousands in THE SHORT RUN !
If you think that the HE can not be beat  then you should not gamble. Simple .
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2017, 03:01:53 PM »
Scepticus,  very good point. Now please demonstrate how your use of math gives you bet selection that is able to overcome HE.
 

McCoy

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #20 on: September 03, 2017, 06:41:53 PM »
I see a lot of systems here which try to recover losses using martingale or variations. If you must chase losses at least chase wins too, otherwise you aren't taking advantage of the positive variance. Better still, try to find an edge first, then worry about money management.

Quote
Once again  -talk of THE LONG RUN is bollocks !

It's one of those things you read so much about and yet it never seems to be defined, so I have some sympathy with your view, and it's irrelevant anyway if you have an edge. If you don't, it will catch you sooner or later.  :)
 

scepticus

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2017, 07:44:58 PM »

McCoy
You said you would give us some numbers you calculated.
Any progress ?
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #22 on: September 03, 2017, 07:51:41 PM »
for all the 37 number bets you can statistically compute with simulation of a fair RNG where every system fall in a permanent loss. The loss is statabilized at 2.7%. This is the point where the long run starts.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #23 on: September 03, 2017, 08:13:57 PM »
So far nothing more than generic theories, vague claims, words and sentences which have already been told too many times and all these lead to nowhere.
Nothing from such thread will help you win and do you know why??

Let me tell you the obvious, all those recycling junk has 0 practical value!

As long as people keep speaking with generic terms and vague claims they contribute nothing!

As long as for some their only concern is to tell to others what they are doing wrong, they help nobody!

Theories coming from individuals with no practical experience don't reflect reality, a theory could be not applicable or far away from what actually happens.
We don't need smartasses to tell us what we are doing wrong (according to them), we don't need one more vague and impractical theory, we need clearly defined working solutions!

@ McCoy, there were many others before you who said more or less what you are presenting as yesterday news today, unless you are going to explain how to gain an edge in crystal clear definition, your words as good as nothing!
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 08:57:54 PM by BlueAngel »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2017, 08:39:25 PM »
BA, obviously you right. All systems have in mind something that never have been found in the nature " perfect wheel".. and sims all try to " beat it". Folks just created a dragon they can't kill themselves. 
    In reality wheels are imperfect, so these rare cases of negative veriance become not that rare ...  it's much more often then in this " perfect wheel model".
    So this is what happens exactly: when game is good and a variance is positive folks winning less then they should due to progressions and betting plan designed for fighting the loss... when game is bad, it's noreally worst then folks expect, so their stalking plans do not help them.
     This " perfect wheel " is exactly that " box" inside wich everyone is thinking... and till moment folks not start to think outside of the box, it will be f. .d up.
 

kav

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #25 on: September 03, 2017, 08:44:46 PM »
Reminder:
I believe we are all intelligent enough to be able to present our ideas and possible disagreements in a respectful way, without being argumentative or disrespectful.
We try hard to be a warm place for exchange of opinion and knowledge about roulette.
Messages that do not represent this philosophy will be moderated.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #26 on: September 03, 2017, 09:05:17 PM »
DO NOT QUOTE PREVIOUS POSTS

When you've replied exactly this: "...put up or shut up!" to Thomas Leor back then there was no problem, I was the one who applauded your response by clicking ''thank you".

Now what's going on John??

Are you getting softer against the useless blah blah blah blah blah...?!
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 09:47:11 PM by kav »
 

scepticus

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #27 on: September 03, 2017, 09:20:11 PM »

Speaking for myself-and only myself I have stated time and time again that I use the Nine Block in my calculations.  If others are" too lazy" to use it the that is their problem . or do those who are too lazy really expect me to tell  them what I actually bet ?
Isn't it obvious that we all have different views and are comfortable with them ? So those who continually trash others methods should stop their nonsense.  I agree with BA here. Press that Delete button more , kav WITHOUT FEAR OR FAVOUR .
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #28 on: September 03, 2017, 09:27:34 PM »
Mr Perfect,

I think when you were typing this reply you had a particular type of players in your mind, those who consider something as due.
Just for your information not all players ascribe under such category, therefore your explanation fits partially but not completely the greater picture.

RNG's can never be wheels, RNG's can never be decks of cards, as an android could never become human.
They are just a cheap substitute, a virtual reality.

The HE explanation for every system's, method's failure is just hillarious.
Casinos all have to do is to add 1 more number and automatically will render every system which has ever been devised, as well as all those which will be made in the future as failures!

And all these just because there is 1 more number, this horse pucky have been bought for decades around the world!
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 09:46:37 PM by kav »
 

McCoy

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Re: Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Reply #29 on: September 03, 2017, 09:35:13 PM »
@ McCoy, there were many others before you who said more or less what you are presenting as yesterday news today, unless you are going to explain how to gain an edge in crystal clear definition, your words as good as nothing!

Pardon me, I thought this was a discussion forum, and why do you assume I've found an edge? I'm new to roulette but I know enough about gambling to know what won't work. If I don't find anything I'm not going to cry about it because I already know how to win at sports betting. And why does it matter to you if others don't give you a winning system? Don't you already have an infallible system? How many winning systems do you need?
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 10:13:43 PM by kav »
 
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