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Casino Lounge / Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Last post by MrPerfect. on Today at 02:13:20 PM »
Quote
Anyone who do the test , will have a chance to answer topic qwestion to himself.
But if all will do this -  not be so many talks in forum  :) . You get mine minde ?  ;)
And what? Everyone will become a player suddenly, or wheel manufacturers will create a perfect wheel? Not in my life time, l gess. If someone told me from the start how much effort is needed to perform AP properly, l would consider to so something else instead. How many players you know, how many tables were closed in front of your nose because someone else was playing? l know 5 players worldwide and l lost one table only to others so far...
2
Casino Lounge / Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Last post by MrPerfect. on Today at 01:55:26 PM »
Sry, Kav, didn't realise sleeping numbers question was directed to me... the thing is that bias is not numbers, but imperfections(defects). This defects affect ball jumps and result in some numbers getting hit more often and others less often then expected probability dictates. All what affects ball jumps will affect resulting numbers as well (conditions). Thats why if player do not want his numbers 'go to sleep', he should stay awake as well in both his data taking and during playing session.
     1. To predict first number ball will hit, player should develop some vb skills, its a good tool for a task, this is exactly what vb is supposed to do.
     2. Online or offline, ball jumps are crazy thing, however can be statistically limited. l wouldn"t advise to play online wheels for someone who can not beat b&m ones first...
3
Casino Lounge / Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Last post by Bebediktus on Today at 01:28:49 PM »
Quote
Anyone who do the test , will have a chance to answer topic qwestion to himself.
But if all will do this -  not be so many talks in forum  :) . You get mine minde ?  ;)
4
Casino Lounge / Re: A message for thanks to Charles win3million
« Last post by atlantis on Today at 01:00:15 PM »
Hi,

I'm interested in anything Duncan cares to say because he *might* just be trying to help us or point us in the direction of a so-called Consistent Winning Bet like he said so in his posts (and not just a wind-up - although I accept it might be...)

These are some things he mentioned:

Quote
I will give some help for the people that are still trying to find the bet.

The boffins bet is a loser... it's no better than betting randomly.

Flat betting is the only way.
If the betting selection is a winner the safest way is flat.

Flat betting means to bet in every spin the same amount of chips in every bet.

All I know is that i never lose a session by playing this bet.

I m not here to brag or to tease or to sell something.
I am here to help.
And yes... the people that are still searching the bet, get a great help of the things I am posting.

Find patterns that are happening more often and bet them.
Bet them flat... If your betting is a real winner it will be winning flat.

I would also like to make one proposition on the bet.
I have found that betting only 2 chips (of the movement) and not all 4.

One day I found a bet that was fitting Charles clues 100%. I started testing it and I was surprised by the stability and the slow profits that was making( I repeat by betting 2 doz or 2 col or even both).The phenomenon of RRCC-CCRR or RCCR-CRRC was happening all the time in my papers of tracking. (After the triggers).

I have found that betting only 2 chips (of the movement) and not all 4 is giving more stability. Although testing all 3500 spins with the 4 chips gave more profitability.

This can't be luck.
Even I am shocked at these results and the interesting point is that it's the ACETF bet Charles was decribing in his clues.

The BR of this bet if played with 2 chips is 30 chips.

There are 2 kind of patterns to happen
1) AAAA or BBBB         
    ABAB or BABA         

2) AABB or BBAA
    ABBA or BAAB

The bet has triggers that trap the **2nd pattern**


And I would like to ask a question(s)

Are you betting EVERY SPIN?? or are there spins when you DO NOT BET?
Are you covering the 0 for insurance?
Is it right the bank balance should be in + after each 100 spins or 100 bets? or both?

Regards,
A.
5
Casino Lounge / Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Last post by kav on Today at 12:36:23 PM »
Mr Perfect,

You didn't answer my question about biased numbers going cold.

But to your comment that "ball has only that much to jump:
1. Then there is the difficulty of predicting the 1rst number that ball hits.
2. have you observed online live games where balls do all crazy things?
6
Casino Lounge / Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Last post by MrPerfect. on Today at 12:23:34 PM »
 To put it on simple terms... AP is limiting degrees of freedom.
    Let's see what is HE . It's just existence of 1 number ( in USA 2) that casino do not pay. Obviously if you bet zero and it hits they do pay, but payment is reduced comparing with real odds of the event.
   If player gets to " take out some numbers out equation " ( limit degrees of freedom) he will have advantage over casino. It's not because player is superman, but because wheel and ball themselves offer this advantage to the player.
    Anyone can do a scatter chart, take a casino card and look distance between first number ball beat and last number( result)... mark these distances on casino card. Collect 100 trial's this way and you will see yourself where that magical " half of wheel that offer advantage" is.
    Obviously such a test will be a misrepresentation of what is really going on there and good vb player does it a bit different, but such a test is good enough for the purpose.
   Anyone who do the test , will have a chance to answer topic qwestion to himself. You can repeat the test and compare results if any doubts persist. Ball has only that much to jump. 
7
Roulette Systems / Re: Bullseye
« Last post by Reyth on Today at 11:30:56 AM »
Ok starting with the number 17 and if it gets clogged, I will switch to 0 and only switch back if it gets clogged.

+27 +22 +23 +15 +35 = +122 (5) G6
+3 +8 +32 +7 +3 +36 +19 = +108/+230 (12) L96
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Casino Lounge / Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Last post by dobbelsteen on Today at 11:30:11 AM »

I have programmed the 4 step double dozens system. The system is very dangerous. The zero and the repeater are killing. The program has a stop after the fourth step. Very small sessions can be very profitable.

Here the image of my study of a winning session.
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Casino Lounge / Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Last post by dobbelsteen on Today at 11:24:18 AM »
A table gambler thinks he can predict the color of the next spin.
A cilinder player thinks he can predict the  sector or the neighbors on the cilinder the next spin.

After 6x the Voisins du Zero the probability is not changed.

The fallacy is for both gamblers the same. Cilinder players can also use statistic phenomena.
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Roulette Systems / Re: Merge Street
« Last post by Reyth on Today at 11:03:25 AM »
Here is why the "Mouse" strategy doesn't work:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsjEYDnAaUc&t=1250s

All-time high 527.08
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 27  525.82
User drops to level 2  525.82
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 5  526.06
 0 hits on spin 6  526.5
 0 hits on spin 48  522.1
User drops to level 3  522.1
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 31  519.7
User drops to level 4  519.7
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 3  519.94
 1 hits on spin 20  518.74
User drops to level 5  518.74
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 7  520.14
User moves up to Level 4
User moves up to Level 3
 1 hits on spin 11  520.26
 1 hits on spin 38  516.48
User drops to level 4  516.48
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 4  517.12
 0 hits on spin 16  518.08
User notes recovery profit goal 518.08
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 11  517.84
 0 hits on spin 16  519.28
 3 hits on spin 22  519.6
User notes recovery profit goal 516.48
User notes recovery profit goal 519.6
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 2  519.92
 3 hits on spin 42  507.12
User drops to level 5  507.12
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 7  508.52
 1 hits on spin 20  508.12
User notes recovery profit goal 508.12
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 13  510.12
 1 hits on spin 19  510.52
User notes recovery profit goal 510.52
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 11  512.02
 2 hits on spin 19  513.22
User notes recovery profit goal 513.22
User resets session
User drops to level 6  489.02
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 16  489.98
 1 hits on spin 36  486.38
User drops to level 7  486.38
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 8  486.38
 2 hits on spin 10  487.92
 0 hits on spin 14  489.04
User moves up to Level 6
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 15  487.6
 2 hits on spin 21  490.24
User notes recovery profit goal 490.24
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 12  489.88
 2 hits on spin 23  491.68
User notes recovery profit goal 491.68
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 4  492.64
 2 hits on spin 12  494.08
 2 hits on spin 13  495.4
 1 hits on spin 17  495.64
User notes recovery profit goal 495.64
User resets session
User moves up to Level 5
User notes recovery profit goal 510.52
User notes recovery profit goal 508.12
User notes recovery profit goal 507.12
User notes recovery profit goal 495.64
 3 hits on spin 8  495.64
 0 hits on spin 10  496.64
 3 hits on spin 19  496.94
User notes recovery profit goal 496.94
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 3  497.34
 1 hits on spin 18  496.14
User drops to level 6  496.14
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 23  491.1
User drops to level 7  491.1
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 2  492.5
 0 hits on spin 7  495.02
 3 hits on spin 19  494.18
User notes recovery profit goal 494.18
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 18  491.38
User notes recovery profit goal 491.38
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 16  493.06
 1 hits on spin 25  493.48
User notes recovery profit goal 493.48
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 2  494.04
 3 hits on spin 12  494.04
 2 hits on spin 16  495.16
User moves up to Level 6
User notes recovery profit goal 495.16
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 2  496.36
 0 hits on spin 8  498.28
 2 hits on spin 9  499.6
User moves up to Level 5
User notes recovery profit goal 495.64
User notes recovery profit goal 507.12
User notes recovery profit goal 499.6
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 2  500.6
 1 hits on spin 6  500.8
 3 hits on spin 8  501.2
User notes recovery profit goal 507.12
User notes recovery profit goal 501.2
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 25  501.6
User notes recovery profit goal 507.12
User notes recovery profit goal 5016
User notes recovery profit goal 507.12
User notes recovery profit goal 501.6
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 29  494.4
User drops to level 6  494.4
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 7  496.08
 1 hits on spin 22  494.64
User notes recovery profit goal 494.64
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 6  495.12
 1 hits on spin 7  495.72
 1 hits on spin 24  493.92
User drops to level 7  493.92
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 3  495.18
User moves up to Level 6
User notes recovery profit goal 494.4
User notes recovery profit goal 495.18
 3 hits on spin 15  494.82
 1 hits on spin 30  492.3
User drops to level 7  492.3
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 17  490.2
User drops to level 8  490.2
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 4  491.64
 0 hits on spin 22  493.24
User moves up to Level 7
User notes recovery profit goal 493.24
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 13  492.68
 0 hits on spin 17  493.94
User notes recovery profit goal 493.94
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 34  486.38
User drops to level 8  486.38
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 5  487.66
User drops to level 9  447.66

I simply got tagged by the blindness that is associated with being unaware of the true governing forces of roulette statistics.

Taking everything that I have learned and applying it all, I need to do the following:

1) Bet a single number
2) Track all relevant statistics
2a) HS -- hit to spin ratio = short term indicator
2b) PLE -- progression loss event = long term indicator
2c) PMI -- progression movement indicator = medium term indicator
3) Cease betting (continue spinning) when the true roulette statistics indicate high risk
4) Set the recovery inclination upward by setting statistically safer profit goals & locking in profits
5) Track a second number for when the main number becomes too statistically compromised

I had discovered some very powerful things and accomplished some amazing recoveries before I sidetracked myself by wanting to bet "only the best numbers on the board" and ended up invoking the RECTM on myself.

I need to get back to all of that and only work with 1 main number and only switch out to a pre-determined number if absolutely necessary.
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