Author Topic: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems  (Read 930 times)

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Reyth

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #60 on: February 13, 2018, 05:46:42 PM »
I do not nor have not said that a biased wheel only contains hot numbers but that they contain hot numbers that are also biased.  All biased numbers are hot by definition.  The "temporary" deviation when numbers are hot but not wheel-biased should be understood as something that can manifest for many thousands of spins.  This is why it is possible that system players and AP players can play the same numbers.

Hands down, Mike's posts are of higher quality as Kav has stated.  Kav is more mature than I am and is able to better control his emotions and he also understands human interactions better than I do (I think this is because he is Greek xD).  The frustration that you feel Mike, is a mirror of the frustration that we all feel due to the fact that your mind is made up even though all the facts are not in.

I know I went over the line in my criticisms according the spirit of this forum and my conscience has been nagging me about it.  I don't think I am necessarily sorry for it because we are all adults and this is an intellectual arena for argumentation and its too easy for skilled participants to play the "wounded" card.  It is clear to me that AP folks play hardball here and the very liberal definition of "ad hominem" used applies just as much to their sneering and arrogant tone/verbalization.

Despite my own frustration, I recognize the quality of Mike's posts and some effort on his part to try and accomodate system players and I appreciate that despite the things I said.

Finally, in the arena of "real life", I don't believe in harming anyone nor do I believe in revenge or retaliation and to the degree that these things have actually ocurred, I am truly sorry.

PS Even though Kav could (and maybe should) have contacted me regarding this, he has not, just in case anyone was wondering.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 06:01:28 PM by Reyth »
 
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Jesper

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #61 on: February 13, 2018, 07:49:27 PM »
"I do not nor have not said that a biased wheel only contains hot numbers"

I like that statement! If you are wrong, the number we bet would allways hit! ::)
 
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Reyth

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #62 on: February 13, 2018, 08:04:11 PM »
ROFL.  And then we woke up...
 

scepticus

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #63 on: February 13, 2018, 08:07:58 PM »
How can a biased wheel suddenly become  unbiased ?
 
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Reyth

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #64 on: February 13, 2018, 08:10:31 PM »
Dang good question.  Only an AP could explain. :shrug:
 

scepticus

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #65 on: February 13, 2018, 08:14:53 PM »
Perhaps, Reyth, an AP could explain . Their explanation would be  interesting .
 

palestis

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #66 on: February 13, 2018, 08:57:26 PM »
I don't despise criticism on systems. In fact I encourage it. So they can get improved or even abandoned if some of them  don't work.
But blanket statements like "systems don't work and referring to the HE and randomness as the main reason,  are not acceptable justifications proving that a system doesn't work.
And neither an alternate method is acceptable unless that method is clearly described. As long as it remains a mystery it doesn't count.
It's  is only fair to ask, that someone who criticizes a system to provide a solid proof.
Just as we provide proof that a system works, with real life examples that resemble short run sessions, a system critic should be able to provide an example y a system doesn't work.
With examples that refer to the short run. Not questionable long term computer simulations.
If a system fails, then there should an example from a daily session, like Wiesbaden, that proves just that.
But none of the hard core system critics did that.
If they take the time to search and find a few daily sessions that proved a system didn't work, then I'll have no choice but to accept the facts.
If they don't do that it means that either it is rare to search and locate a losing example, or the system doesn't lose. In either case it is a plus for such system .
When you can't easily find an example that a system loses, then that's very good news for such system.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #67 on: February 13, 2018, 09:14:27 PM »
I think that is a very wise and valuable method for system design.  I think computers are valuable for providing random sequences that are possible in real play and that we might face.  Just as important as the sequence is the statistical likelihood for that sequence to appear.

This is where computer analysis and system design can work together to create better, stronger and more intelligent systems.  It is possible to get to a place to where the bad sequences are made rare enough to allow us to profit within our lifetimes.  Its not easy.  Its extremely difficult.  The programming involved is agonizing.
 
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palestis

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #68 on: February 13, 2018, 10:17:26 PM »
Yes simulation if of great help if you need to know what the worst sequence for your system can be.
And most important of all how often it can happen, as well as how often other bad sequences (not necessarily extreme and therefore rare), can happen. It saves time testing it manually.
Based on the results you can make a lot of decisions about a system. If the bad sequences are very rare and very far in between, then the system is safe to use.
If those bad sequences are more frequent and detrimental to the B/R, you simply reject it.
But as far the forum is concerned, proving that a system will fail will require real life examples for everybody to see and understand.
Many people don't understand simulations, and they can't prorate lengthy millions of spins results to short run playing.
 
 

Mike

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #69 on: February 14, 2018, 08:52:19 AM »
I don't think I am necessarily sorry for it because we are all adults and this is an intellectual arena for argumentation and its too easy for skilled participants to play the "wounded" card.  It is clear to me that AP folks play hardball here and the very liberal definition of "ad hominem" used applies just as much to their sneering and arrogant tone/verbalization.

Reyth,

I'm sorry you got the impression I was playing the "wounded" card. I guess it did seem that you were "ganging up" on me, but if all the responses following my post in reply #29 (which contains the essence of my argument) were valid objections, or even related to it, I would have responded to those particular objections. But they weren't. They were just generic criticisms of AP and other "attacks" completely irrelevant to the subject of the thread.

You're right though about the sneering and arrogance. I've been guilty of this, although I think Real is worse than I am. I will make a big effort in future to keep my posts free from any such "you are an idiot" undertones.

In fact, I've been thinking that my future posts should be more constructive than critical. Even though I don't believe that any system works in the long run, some systems ARE better than others IMO. Perhaps I should focus more on those and maybe start some threads about more technical stuff like how to do hypothesis tests, which are useful for system players and AP alike.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Mechanical vs Nonmechanical systems
« Reply #70 on: February 14, 2018, 05:11:54 PM »
Thanks!

Someone with your knowledge and skills can be a great asset to help us improve systems. :)