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Author Topic: Wrap your mind around this...  (Read 555 times)

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MickyP

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #15 on: January 13, 2018, 11:10:38 PM »
Mike, that little extra bit of spice about evangelising on a forum about systems is not amusing regardless of who it is referring to.
 
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scepticus

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #16 on: January 13, 2018, 11:17:42 PM »
" In Theory ,theory and practice are the same - but in practice they ain't "
Yogi Berra
 

scepticus

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #17 on: January 14, 2018, 01:18:23 AM »
No "Evangilising" about AP ?
 

Mike

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #18 on: January 14, 2018, 08:56:31 AM »
Mike, that little extra bit of spice about evangelising on a forum about systems is not amusing regardless of who it is referring to.

It wasn't supposed to be amusing, the point was to show that results can seem impressive but it isn't necessarily the system played which causes such results, because even throwing a chip randomly on the table can do it. A large part of the field of statistics is devoted to analysis of results to determine the likelihood of whether they are "significant" or due to random variation. These techniques are increasingly relevant in every aspect of modern life - scientific research, engineering, business, economics, etc. Anyone seriously interested in roulette should at least know how to evaluate a system's results in terms of statistical significance. But many system players are contemptuous of mere "theory", instead preferring to apply their own ad-hoc and amateurish techniques, which are often fallacious because they don't even understand basic probability and concepts like statistical independence.

By the way, I've made an addition to the program which simulated those results. It was a bit misleading because although a bank CAN last a long time, of more interest is knowing what maximum profit was generated, so I've added some code which records this. I ran a few sims until I found one which gave a long lasting bank (initially 400u):

Code: [Select]
Initial Bank = 400
Last number has lost bank after 465,736 spins

 0 bank bust at spin    11200   Max =  1254
 1 bank bust at spin     1552   Max =   432
 2 bank bust at spin     1516   Max =   426
 3 bank bust at spin     4540   Max =   538
 4 bank bust at spin     1228   Max =   390
 5 bank bust at spin     6844   Max =   537
 6 bank bust at spin     9004   Max =   616
 7 bank bust at spin     6880   Max =   582
 8 bank bust at spin    20380   Max =   862
 9 bank bust at spin      868   Max =   519
10 bank bust at spin    18364   Max =   854
11 bank bust at spin    97492   Max =  2627
12 bank bust at spin     3352   Max =   654
13 bank bust at spin     4720   Max =   799
14 bank bust at spin    49901   Max =  1642
15 bank bust at spin      868   Max =   339
16 bank bust at spin     2308   Max =   461
17 bank bust at spin     5440   Max =   678
18 bank bust at spin     2272   Max =   514
19 bank bust at spin     1300   Max =   412
20 bank bust at spin    18004   Max =  1305
21 bank bust at spin     4720   Max =   642
22 bank bust at spin    28408   Max =  1283
23 bank bust at spin     7276   Max =   753
24 bank bust at spin     2308   Max =   395
25 bank bust at spin   465736   Max =  3534 *
26 bank bust at spin     4540   Max =   579
27 bank bust at spin     7096   Max =   821
28 bank bust at spin     2884   Max =   526
29 bank bust at spin    13936   Max =   961
30 bank bust at spin    57280   Max =  1489
31 bank bust at spin     6196   Max =   780
32 bank bust at spin    70492   Max =  2388
33 bank bust at spin     2056   Max =   447
34 bank bust at spin     1912   Max =   479
35 bank bust at spin      616   Max =   279
36 bank bust at spin   332248   Max =  4304

So even though the bank lasted for the best part of half a million spins, it only got up to 3,534u. #36 did a bit better although the bank busted earlier.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2018, 08:58:59 AM by Mike »
 
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MickyP

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2018, 11:28:03 AM »
Who plays roulette like that? Only a maths geek looking to prove a point. Your explanation serves only your purpose. What you are actually saying is that playing roulette should only be for those  who qualify themselves in statistics. Statistics give you averages, probabilities and possibilities. They do not and can not give you certainty. The only certainty is if the game is played strictly according to the simulated test but no one plays roulette like that.

You equate a system to throwing chips on the table. How arrogant of you.

Variance is a roulette reality. Although I don't agree with the presentation of your opinion,  no roulette player will play a system without testing it first. Due to the HE an unsupported systen will eventually fail. This does not mean all systems are doomed to failure. You take a straight system, isolate it in your maths lab and throw numbers at it until it fails. Yuppie! You proved your point. Step into the real world of roulette play and you will find a number of other aspects that contribute to the strength of a system. By the end of the day a system is much more than just a system; it becomes a strategic method of play.

AP (visual ballistics) show losses as well. This depends on your accuracy of prediction and this differs from player to player. Would it be fair of me to trash AP based on this assumption. No, because I do realise that it is a skill that must be learnt and honed over many years.

 
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Mike

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #20 on: January 14, 2018, 01:24:14 PM »
If you're serious about roulette, ie have aspirations to play professionally, then, yes, you should at least understand the basics of statistical inference, which you clearly don't otherwise you wouldn't have made the statement :

Quote
Statistics give you averages, probabilities and possibilities. They do not and can not give you certainty. The only certainty is if the game is played strictly according to the simulated test but no one plays roulette like that.

Which once again shows that you have missed the point. Is it all or nothing, then? If statistics cannot give certainty then it's not worth applying at all?

Quote
no roulette player will play a system without testing it first.

Yes, but how many understand what the test results mean? They may believe that a system is showing "good" results, but without knowing how to do a proper statistical test and interpret the results correctly, this will be a somewhat arbitrary assessment. They may play the system until it tanks and then begin the search all over again. Sooner or later, because they test so many systems, one will come along which seems to be IT, but as my demo shows, it's likely to be just variance at work; you've found a system run which gives results located at  the far end of the bell curve. Your comment about "maths geeks" is typically ill-informed, and you have the nerve to call ME arrogant.

Quote
Due to the HE an unsupported systen will eventually fail. This does not mean all systems are doomed to failure.

What DOES it mean, then? It sounds like you're contradicting yourself. And what is an "unsupported" system?

Quote
Step into the real world of roulette play and you will find a number of other aspects that contribute to the strength of a system.

What other aspects? System players are always vague about what these other aspects are. If you can describe your strategy then you can also simulate it. What is wrong, in your view, with such a simulation? On the other hand, if you can't simulate it, then you don't really have a system do you? You're just making it up as you go along - guessing. If the decisions you make at the table aren't informed by any rational process then everything is just random and you can't possibly get an edge.

Quote
AP (visual ballistics) show losses as well. This depends on your accuracy of prediction and this differs from player to player. Would it be fair of me to trash AP based on this assumption. No, because I do realise that it is a skill that must be learnt and honed over many years.

You can't possibly compare AP with system play. You can argue about whether AP is a realistic proposition in modern casinos, but you can't deny that in principle at least, it works. On the other hand, systems cannot work even in principle.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2018, 02:02:59 PM by Mike »
 
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MickyP

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2018, 04:17:10 PM »
Why should it be "all or nothing"?

Statistical inference: a conclusion reached on the basis of evidence and reasoning.

You can provide evidence of a failed system based on your stats tests but the manner of your tests do not reflect the system in actual play. Your reasoning would be that many short games equate to one long game.

Other factors that strengthen a system are using triggers correctly (your pet peeve), Establishing a stop loss in the system,  Money Management, Progressions, Bet Selection. I'm sure you get the idea. How do you test a system and exclude these variable? Does this justify your " all or nothing" talk? That's arrogant and I say this because your tests will never include all the working parts of a system.

I'm not contradicting myself when I say statistics are a useful tool to establish the potential win/loss of a system/strategy. Using stats is wise. Stats give you an indication of what to expect if change is not instituted.

Testing systems allows the opportunity to identify strengths and weaknesses. A lot of information becomes available from testing that allows for the possible building or creation of a system.

An unsupported system is typical of the system tests you run so don't pretend you don't know what it means. It's taking one aspect of a system and testing it without considering or using the other aspects. This is as bad as ignoring variance.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2018, 04:23:24 PM by MickyP »
 
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Mike

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2018, 05:16:09 PM »
An unsupported system is typical of the system tests you run so don't pretend you don't know what it means. It's taking one aspect of a system and testing it without considering or using the other aspects. This is as bad as ignoring variance.

The system I tested may have been simple, but it was not "unsupported" (still don't know what it means). Betting on a single number continuously is a system, isn't it? Sure, I could have simulated a complex system with triggers, perhaps betting on hot numbers, but it would have made no difference to the point being made, so I chose something simple.

And if I HAD used such a system, you would have still said that the results meant nothing, because it was just ONE system which happened to be a loser. Remarkably, system players never seem to understand the one thing that makes their systems lose (or they are in complete denial about it). They are always looking for just the right bet selection or progression and are perennially hopeful that the next one will be IT.
 
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kav

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2018, 05:40:15 PM »
I may not agree with Mike, but I appreciate the time and effort he takes to form his well written responses. This shows that he wants to make a point and not disrupt the discussion, which is often the case with naysayers.
 

MickyP

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #24 on: January 14, 2018, 06:17:49 PM »
I have thanked Mike for  the effort he puts into his posts but it does seem as though he can not or will not accept any opinions that credit roulette systems.
 

MickyP

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #25 on: January 14, 2018, 08:36:35 PM »
I may be changing the subject here but the change still falls into the theme of the thread.

How important is mindset when playing roulette? A positive mindset or positive mental attitude is the key to success; so say the authors of the millions of "pick me up" books sold around the world year in and year out.

Laws have been revealed to us in "The secret", a truly amazing book. Among these is the law of attraction. In a nutshell it states that whatever we radiate from our minds comes back to us in increased volume. If it's positive, we get positive returns and if it's negative, we have SH one T coming.

Do you think intuition could be the result of radiating positive thoughts? I'm at a roulette table and the ball is doing its revolutions around the wheel; the number 4 pops into my head; the ball slows, bounces a few times and comes to rest on number 4. This freaks me out. It has happened a few times but I've never bet on the numbers when it happened.

I'm more interested in overall mood and mindset as a general contribution to success at the table. What was your mindset at the point of a big loss or win? I'm not suggesting anything with this, just curious to see if others feel there could be a connection.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2018, 08:39:45 PM by MickyP »
 

kav

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #26 on: January 14, 2018, 09:45:13 PM »
 
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scepticus

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #27 on: January 14, 2018, 10:59:04 PM »
In matters religious I am an unbeliever. I accept that there are some things we cannot explain but I  just accept that I don't know Speculation is fine but speculation is not Fact.
Intuition I accept but I don't accept that it reveals " the truth" . It is just " a feeling  a Gut Feeling"" which may or not turn about to be valid - with the benefitof hindsight ..
Your mind can alter reality  to make it favour you.?  Dealers Signature? . You cannot beat roulette in the Long Run ? etc.  are merely playing with our Minds. I firmly believe that it is a knowledge of the game you play in conjunction with the offered odds and , in roulette acceptance that we are all subject to variance  are the only things that matter. 
Concentrate on the factors that really matter .
 
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MickyP

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #28 on: January 15, 2018, 05:59:07 AM »
Nice post Scepticus.

Presumptions are not fact either but they contribute considerably  to many post replies and strangely enough, they are treated as fact.

I wouldn't put money on intuition or a gut feeling mostly because it's as random as roulette. An interesting subject never-the-less.
 

sam41

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #29 on: January 16, 2018, 12:22:21 AM »
There have been times I've not felt good ahead of a session and it has indeed gone badly. But other times it has gone well. There have also been times I've fancied a number to hit and put a unit on it alongside whatever system bet I was making,  and it hits. But thats more to do with opposite numbers hitting than random intuition. For example I see 11 follow 28 or 12 so often I'll always put a unit on it when those numbers hit. And also 0 and 32 afrer a 24,5 or 10 hit. What I dont get is why other opposite numbers dont hit as much as these ones. The wheel is round so if there is a scientific reason why opposites hit a lot, it should be the same for all numbers.