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Author Topic: Wrap your mind around this...  (Read 519 times)

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MickyP

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Wrap your mind around this...
« on: January 07, 2018, 10:38:24 PM »
The roulette wheel has 37 numbers and each pocket is 9.7 degrees wide. On a perfect wheel the ball could land in any pocket and the chance of the ball landing on your number you have bet on is 2.7%.

This is visual ballistics for dummies, in a sense that the wheel is what should be played and not the convenient felt.

Where the ball lands in the wheel has tell tale signs that differ from croupier to croupier hence the constant changing of croupiers in the casino. Keeping record of where on the wheel the ball lands will create patterns and hot spots will come to light. The idea of studying wheel behavior or trends is to use this to your advantage.

At 9.7 degrees it is not likely  you will select the exact pocket (number) the ball will land in but what if you widen the pocket?
3 numbers gives you 29.1 degrees relating to 12 pockets on the wheel.
4 numbers is 38.8 degrees and 9 pockets
5 numbers is 48.5 degrees and 7 pockets
6 numbers is 58.2 degrees and 6 pockets
7 numbers is 67.9 degrees and 5 pockets
9 numbers is 87.3 degrees and 4 pockets
I think you get the idea.

So if you play roulette on a wheel that has let's say only 6 pockets and you bet on one or two of the pockets (6 or 12 number) your chances of a hit are greatly improved. This is where a progression will end up in your favour.

Start thinking along these lines and practise betting in your mind every time you have a wheel in front of you. The more you practise the more you will observe and the better you will become. Learn to read the croupiers relationship with the wheel. It is predictable to a point.
I'm sure with this exercise you will have a new found appreciation for visual ballistics. MrPerfect will be able to guide you into refining your new found approach.

I do these exercises very often and I have noticed an improvement in my bet selection. I'm yet to try with hard cash though.



 
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MickyP

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2018, 07:44:18 AM »
The above is an idea or exercise if you will that gets you to challenge how and what you perceive as important out of the many aspects of the game. An example...
If you do not play EC's (Even Chance) then relating a colour to a number has no value to you so you don't bother remembering what numbers are black and what numbers are red. The numbers could be multicoloured and would not influence your game. The number is the only thing that registers in your brain.

For those of you that never play the colours, write down the numbers from 0 to 36 and write the colour of that number next to it. You will be surprised at how unsure you are about something you may spend hours looking at each day. It's all in the way we perceive things; what's important and what's not.

If you want to change your game then perhaps you should start by analysing the way you see the game.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2018, 08:31:06 AM by MickyP »
 

MickyP

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2018, 09:49:17 AM »
Most new roulette players see the felt as the game because that's where the wagers are placed. In my years of play I've only seen a handful of players observing the wheel in their play. So now ill pose a question:

What is the core of your game, wheel or felt?
 
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MickyP

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2018, 10:10:13 AM »
Here is an exercise for felt and wheel play:

The only rule is that you must play one unit per number (6 units total bet)

Select a section of the wheel and a section of the felt, six numbers next to each other,  eg: 3, 26, 0, 32, 15, 19 on the wheel and 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 on the felt. Play to win 50 units with a bankroll of 300 units.
You may change your selected area at any time to give you a possible advantage on how you read the game play.

How do you think this exercise will turn out?
 

MickyP

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2018, 08:11:43 PM »
Okay I'm not holding my breath in anticipation of any comments but I'll give you another brain warmer anyway.

The general claim is that roulette can not be beaten.
The general opinion is that no holy grail exists.
The calculated opinion is that all systems will fail in the long run.

Now looking at the three statements above is like looking at a roulette billboard inviting you to pay them to prove them right. BUT, how many of you actually believe that these statements are true and correct. We accept these statements without asking for a second opinion or for the statements to be clarified to a point of absolute understanding.

In our not too distant past the thought of man in flight was considered absurd. The Wright brothers believed in the impossible and today flying is not just for the birds.
To date it is unknown if anyone has been able to crack the roulette code. Does such a code exist?

Any information you receive from anyone or anywhere should be considered unqualified information until you verify and accept it as fact. The majority are not always right. They are the majority because they think alike. Do not be afraid to think differently. If you believe roulette can be beaten and you work to beat it, you will succeed.
Spend wisely and learn freely. Enjoy.
 

Fyodor

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2018, 01:43:44 PM »
Success in a ?Roulette Salon, is the result of 99% preparation and 1% application.
Defeat at the table is most often caused by attempting to alter the above percentages thru expecting some outcome, that totals more than 100%.
There's the problem, right there, and I support that fact, 100%!
 
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mr j

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2018, 02:28:07 PM »
"What is the core of your game, wheel or felt?" >> Wheel of course.

Something I hear from the rookies at the casino.....Say I'm betting on the 25 and 27.
The 26 hits..... "Oh man, right next to it" !!!!!!!

(idiots)

Ken
 
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Mike

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2018, 04:06:50 PM »

The general claim is that roulette can not be beaten.
The general opinion is that no holy grail exists.
The calculated opinion is that all systems will fail in the long run.

Now looking at the three statements above is like looking at a roulette billboard inviting you to pay them to prove them right. BUT, how many of you actually believe that these statements are true and correct.

Yes, they're true and correct. The GAME can not be beaten, but individual wheels may be "beaten".

Quote
In our not too distant past the thought of man in flight was considered absurd. The Wright brothers believed in the impossible and today flying is not just for the birds.

I often come across analogies like this, but I find them entirely unconvincing. Roulette as a game is designed to be unbeatable, and it is. That doesn't mean you can't enjoy designing and playing systems, working on your self-discipline, and so forth. There are certainly bad bets which should be avoided, and money-management is a skill worth learning, but it's simply impossible to design a system which will win consistently against the random game. This is matter of arithmetic and logic, that's all. The Wright brothers solved a physics and engineering problem; it was never LOGICALLY impossible to fly.

Trying to beat the random game of roulette with a system is like trying to prove that 1 + 1 = 3. It just doesn't make any sense if you understand a little probability.
 
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MickyP

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2018, 04:54:03 PM »
Mike, if I play roulette every day for a week using a system/strategy, and I win an average of 20 units a day giving me a total of 140 units profit for the week; have I not beaten the game?

Winning will not occur continuously, losses will occur but if the wins outweigh the losses, have I not beaten the game?

I apologise for my rookie talk. The terminology  and speech guide on "speaking like a pro" hasn't been compiled yet. Lol
 

Mike

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2018, 06:41:45 PM »
If you win for a week, then I guess you've "beaten" roulette THAT WEEK. In that case there must be many thousands of players who have beaten the game, only to lose all or most of it back the following week. Of course you can't expect to win every session, but to "beat" the game you must have a real edge which persists through the variance, and that just isn't possible. The variance is your friend in the short term, but it's not enough to see you through the long term.
 
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MickyP

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2018, 06:56:01 PM »
Nice clean cut answer.

And so to continue; my bankroll is 140 units stronger and the next week is not good. I risk 50 units every day I play and I loose two day out of seven so I break even but the week after that I'm up again. I go through controlled ups and down, never winning or loosing too much.  The odds of winning with my system is about 86% on average. With odds like this that are controlled do you not think long run winning is possible?
 

Mike

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2018, 10:40:47 AM »
It's the variance which fools people into thinking that they have "beaten" the game, or have found a winning system. The variance is most evident when playing few numbers (it's also the best way to play, because the house edge has the lowest bite). I ran a simulation which shows how long it took for each of 37 players, starting with a 250u bank, and betting on a single number (player0 bets on 0, player1 bets on 1, etc), to lose the bank. Here's a typical simulation run:

Code: [Select]
Last number has lost bank of 250u after 188,314 spins

 0 bank bust at spin       1186
 1 bank bust at spin       6910
 2 bank bust at spin       6658
 3 bank bust at spin        898
 4 bank bust at spin       1546
 5 bank bust at spin      31174
 6 bank bust at spin     188314 *
 7 bank bust at spin       1978
 8 bank bust at spin       9250
 9 bank bust at spin      15010
10 bank bust at spin        754
11 bank bust at spin      11482
12 bank bust at spin        646
13 bank bust at spin        934
14 bank bust at spin       6046
15 bank bust at spin       2698
16 bank bust at spin        970
17 bank bust at spin       4066
18 bank bust at spin       1006
19 bank bust at spin       1258
20 bank bust at spin       1762
21 bank bust at spin       1618
22 bank bust at spin       1654
23 bank bust at spin      20806
24 bank bust at spin       3778
25 bank bust at spin       1439
26 bank bust at spin       1402
27 bank bust at spin      30382
28 bank bust at spin       4246
29 bank bust at spin       9358
30 bank bust at spin        430
31 bank bust at spin       2914
32 bank bust at spin       1366
33 bank bust at spin      11410
34 bank bust at spin        934
35 bank bust at spin      13318
36 bank bust at spin       3130

The player on #30 went bust first, after only 430 spins, but it took the player betting on #6 188,314 spins before his initial 250 bank was lost. This isn't particularly unusual, but the guy who happens to be playing #6 attributes his success to a SYSTEM, rather than dumb luck. He might even join a roulette forum and start evangelizing about systems, hot numbers etc. I think you understand my point.  ;)

And don't forget, 250u is a pretty small bank when betting on a single number. Obviously, the larger the bank, the more chance you have of quitting with a profit.
 
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Mike

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2018, 12:07:02 PM »
You might want to see the results using different initial banks, so I've uploaded the executable. After unzipping, open a windows command prompt and type:

longrun <bank>

e.g. if you want the bank to be 500u type longrun 500, then press ENTER.
 
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Jesper

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2018, 12:41:13 PM »
If in the test there are 37 players playing   each one a different number, and play an unit a spin, we can see easy, every spin the bank takes 37 units and pay to the single winner 36. The bank takes one each spin from the players, and that is the house advantages, which here is exactly the same each spin. So yes it is just a matter of time before the bank got all the money. If the players stay until bust they will find it happen in a finite time. It can for one or a few takes a lot of time and some may have had a large part of the money, but all will lose in finit time.
 
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MickyP

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Re: Wrap your mind around this...
« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2018, 10:54:13 PM »
Jesper, that's a good "practical" demonstration of the house edge or advantage but like a spin sequence of all 37 numbers appearing in 37 spins, it wil more than likely never hsppen. Mike's example is no different to yours. Easy to understand practical example that will never be seen played out in real life.

A roulette system or strategy can only be simulated in play but never duplicated to the last detail. There are just too many variables in play at any given time. If you take 10 knowledgeable  players and they play the same system to win X amount in a day from a standard bankroll. Run this exercise for 20 days and you will find the end totals will not be the same due to game variance. Taking "knowledgeable" into account I doubt if there will be any player with less than the starting bankroll.

Mathematically, we will all lose in "finit" time; so you say. Finit means to have an end. Will that end occur in a lifetime or maybe longer? Mathematical reasons why we will lose do not take into consideration  the individuality of each game played therefore it can only be classified as a generalised possibility. You can not prove it as a fact because it is not constant.

Mike, thanks for the effort put into explaining your point.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2018, 11:02:31 PM by MickyP »