Author Topic: @ Reyth  (Read 493 times)

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Sputnik

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@ Reyth
« on: December 16, 2017, 06:03:26 PM »

Hello Reyth - i have a question for you and is about winning two in a row ...
Marigny state that singles has the value of 1 and series of two has the value of 0 and series of three the value of 1

That is singles versus series of three.
For example the amount of singles make you lose one bet each and each serie of three make you win twice.

R
B L
B W
R L
B L
B W
B W

1) One can count the amount of singles before a serie of three show using red and black

But now to the significant discovery:

There is as many singles as there is series, so that means we would have singles with the value of 1 and two series after each other with the value of 0 and three series in a row with the value of 1

Same as using red and black - but there is a big difference.
When you use singles and series you get different loses and winnings.

When i get a single i lose one bet - same with red and black and singles and series.
And when we get a serie of two we win once with both red and black and singles and series.
But in this situation we got a serie of two using red and black - but only one single serie using singles and series.
And both result in one win, so when i get a two series in a row using single and series i get two wins - but with red and black i only get one win. So singles and series increase the winnings with one more if you compare with read and black distribution.

Look at this when i get three in a row using red and black i get two wins in a row.
But when i use singles and series and get three series in a row i get three wins.
And the distribution is same with same probability and match values.

So my question is if you can compute this and look and see if the distribution is the same.
It should be - but now we use singles and series when we aim to win two in a row because we win three time in a row - not only twice and with same math and probability calculations.

I repeat the values.

Red & Black
One single has the value of 1
One serie of two has the value of 0
One serie of three has the value of 1

Singles & Series
One single has the value of 1
Two series has the value of 0
Three series has the value of 1

Singels & Series

R
B L
R L
B L
B W
R
R W
R

B
B W
B
B
B

Red & Black

R
B L
R L
B L
B W
R L
R
W
R
W

Is a loop hole with same betting march and same outcomes and same match values and same probability where one option results in one more win overall.

Cheers
« Last Edit: December 16, 2017, 06:11:31 PM by Sputnik »

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Reyth

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Re: @ Reyth
« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2017, 08:39:54 PM »
Thanks for this great post!

Just want to agree (half-way through your post right now) that if we can reliably predict (at least) 2 wins in a row, we definitely have the HG.

In your example, we also had less losses than the B/R method.

So yes, I can definitely compute this and compare it to the standard B/R distribution.  However, I need to be very clear on exactly what I am calculating (up until now, all your posts about series and singles have only confused me [blush]).

I will use H/L.

1) I am going to track every time a single appears.
2) I will ignore series of 2.
3) I will track every time a series of 3 (or more) appears.

So, what exactly do you wish to know about the distribution of these results?
« Last Edit: December 16, 2017, 08:59:24 PM by Reyth »

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Sputnik

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Re: @ Reyth
« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2017, 07:57:36 AM »

Thanks Reyth that sound great.
Just count the amount of singles before a serie of three appears.

So with red and black we might get this amount of singles before a serie of three hit 0 1 4 8 2 3 3 4 6 17 2 4 4
Then does amounts should be similar the amounts we get with singles versus series.

Cheers

Reyth

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Re: @ Reyth
« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2017, 08:11:49 AM »
Just count the amount of singles before a serie of three appears.

Quote
So with red and black we might get this amount of singles before a serie of three hit 0 1 4 8 2 3 3 4 6 17 2 4 4
Then does amounts should be similar the amounts we get with singles versus series.

My apologies.  Are you saying that the number of singles should be the same for a series of 2 as for a series of 3 or more?

The focus appears to be on the number of singles and so would you like the number of single appearances to be displayed with the number of their appearances from 0-26?

So it would look like this:

Code: [Select]
`0 = number of times 0 singles appeared before a series of 3+ hit12345678910111213 = number of times 13 singles appeared before a series of 3+ hit14151617181920212223242526 = number of times 26 singles appeared before a series of 3+ hit# of Total Appearances`
and you want a similar output for series of 2(only)?

From this output we can easily determine the percentage chance of both a series of 2 and a series of 3 appearing, based on the number of singles that have appeared.

If this output is considered useful, I think we might gain more insight if we also track the entire sequence at the same time that we analyze the current "series of singles" because there might be a statistical distribution that is similar to the "65 reds in 200 spins"?

« Last Edit: December 17, 2017, 08:34:54 AM by Reyth »

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Sputnik

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Re: @ Reyth
« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2017, 08:17:17 AM »

Hello Reyth

I say that the amount of singles should be same or similar with both methods before a serie show.
For example no singles before a serie of three show then you get the value 0 single.
If you get one single before a serie of three to show then you get the value 1 single.
If you get two single before a serie of three to show then you get the value 2 single.

This is how the math or Z-Score look like with amount of singles before a serie of three show.

1. Z-Score 0,02 -  1 singles contra 1 serie of three
2. Z-Score 0,73 -  2 singles contra 1 serie of three
3. Z-Score 1,18 -  3 singles contra 1 serie of three
4. Z-Score 1,53 -  4 singles contra 1 serie of three
5. Z-Score 1,82 -  5 singles contra 1 serie of three
6. Z-Score 2,07 -  6 singles contra 1 serie of three
7. Z-Score 2,30 -  7 singles contra 1 serie of three
8. Z-Score 2,51 -  8 singles contra 1 serie of three
9. Z-Score 2.58    9 singles contra 1 serie of three
10. Z-Score 2,70 - 10 singles contra 1 serie of three
11. Z-Score 2,89 - 11 singles contra 1 serie of three
12. Z-Score 3,06 - 12 singles contra 1 serie of three
13. Z-Score 3,22 - 13 singles contra 1 serie of three
14. Z-Score 3,37 - 14 singles contra 1 serie of three
15. Z-Score 3,52 - 15 singles contra 1 serie of three
16. Z-Score 3,66 - 16 singles contra 1 serie of three
17. Z-Score 3,80 - 17 singles contra 1 serie of three
18. Z-Score 3,93 - 18 singles contra 1 serie of three
19. Z-Score 4,06 - 19 singles contra 1 serie of three
20. Z-Score 4,18 - 20 singles contra 1 serie of three
21. Z-Score 4,30 - 21 singles contra 1 serie of three
22. Z-Score 4,42 - 22 singles contra 1 serie of three
23. Z-Score 4,53 - 23 singles contra 1 serie of three
24. Z-Score 4,64 - 24 singles contra 1 serie of three
25. Z-Score 4,75 - 25 singles contra 1 serie of three
26. Z-Score 4,86 - 26 singles contra 1 serie of three
27. Z-Score 4,96 - 27 singles contra 1 serie of three
28. Z-Score 5,07 - 28 singles contra 1 serie of three
29. Z-Score 5,17 - 29 singles contra 1 serie of three
30. Z-Score 5,26 - 30 singles contra 1 serie of three
31. Z-Score 5,36 - 31 singles contra 1 serie of three
32. Z-Score 5,45 - 32 singles contra 1 serie of three
33. Z-Score 5,55 - 33 singles contra 1 serie of three
34. Z-Score 5,64 - 34 singles contra 1 serie of three
35. Z-Score 5,73 - 35 singles contra 1 serie of three
36. Z-Score 5,82 - 36 singles contra 1 serie of three
37. Z-Score 5,90 - 37 singles contra 1 serie of three
38. Z-Score 5,99 - 38 singles contra 1 serie of three
39. Z-Score 6,07 - 39 singles contra 1 serie of three

Reyth

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Re: @ Reyth
« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2017, 07:02:57 AM »
Wow nice post!  Sorry for the delay in posting, the "reply" indicator did not display on this thread because you probably typed your response before I got done editing mine.

Ok, so you want me to count singles before a series of 3 appears and determine that the max loss will mimic a series of singles alone?

Ok, I think I fully get it.  I will start with basic gap testing.  Working...
« Last Edit: December 19, 2017, 07:06:33 AM by Reyth »