### Author Topic: Exercise for logic  (Read 560 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

#### MrPerfect.

• Moderator
• Hero Member
• Posts: 1457
• Thanked: 836 times
##### Exercise for logic
« on: June 11, 2017, 01:12:53 PM »
In the file attached there is an example how quants look for roulette . Find a logical error.

The following users thanked this post: kav, Herby

#### MrPerfect.

• Moderator
• Hero Member
• Posts: 1457
• Thanked: 836 times
##### Re: Exercise for logic
« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2017, 03:22:55 PM »
It looks complicated,  right? Lots of unnecessary math with whatever...
If we focus on words and charts only, we can see that there are some nice numbers there.
Autor just pick up 2 best and decided " this is it".
Unfortunately 2 numbers  bets do have huge variance. They located right next to each other , wich don't help much as well. Testing Kelly in this case is stupidity. Simply he had to choose more numbers and create a bet with different denominations , depending on numbers performance and stability.
This is clear example of how good methodology and correct math in wrong hands do produce whatever results. He is not a player, that is his main problem.

#### Janusz

• Mature Member
• Posts: 147
• Thanked: 95 times
##### Re: Exercise for logic
« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2017, 06:40:26 PM »
It looks complicated,  right? Lots of unnecessary math with whatever...
.....
This is clear example of how good methodology and correct math in wrong hands do produce whatever results. He is not a player, that is his main problem.

As I understand you didn´t understand anything at all.
How can you criticize math, not understanding what it is about?

One question: What (in Terms of Roulette) is "mean reversion level"  and "mean reversion speed oder mean reversion rate" ?

Or do you just ignore that by simply use "2" numbers?

#### MrPerfect.

• Moderator
• Hero Member
• Posts: 1457
• Thanked: 836 times
##### Re: Exercise for logic
« Reply #3 on: June 13, 2017, 06:51:14 PM »
My point was that after all that bla bla bla, he ( autor) just choose 2 numbers standing next to each other as his target.
Have no clue what these terms mean in his interpretation.

#### Janusz

• Mature Member
• Posts: 147
• Thanked: 95 times
##### Re: Exercise for logic
« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2017, 07:31:57 PM »
My point was that after all that bla bla bla, he ( autor) just choose 2 numbers standing next to each other as his target.
Have no clue what these terms mean in his interpretation.

So you don´t know, why he chose only 2 numbers standing "near" to each other?
See Markov: If the "hidden movement" (HMM) creates a distance between 2 numbers, it is possible that this distance is created also between the next spins.
The "sequence" (HMS) which creates this distance is unknown, but it has a higher probability to repeat.

Pls note, that this is statistical Math, not really transferrable to roulette.

#### MrPerfect.

• Moderator
• Hero Member
• Posts: 1457
• Thanked: 836 times
##### Re: Exercise for logic
« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2017, 10:56:56 PM »
Janusz, sry asking, but did you read a doc l posted?  Autors choice of numbers has nothing to do with Marcov or distances between numbers... it's simply due the fact that these numbers pass 3% filter.
There is no errors in autors math besides logical ones. I have no clue whatsoever about first half of document, where he makes unnecessary math show off. There was no need to prove that probability of each number to hit is 1/37, he could simply say so, l would belive him , wouldn't you?
Since when stats math is not transferable to roulette?