### Author Topic: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?  (Read 2439 times)

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#### kav

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##### Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« on: January 05, 2017, 09:39:47 AM »
Why AP doesn't work:
Practical reasons
Psychological reasons
Legal reasons
Mathematical reasons

Advantage Play, probabilities and gambler's fallacy

Probabilities and Gambler's Fallacy
Many AP players are throwing around the "gambler's fallacy" (GF for short) accusation, when the issue really is probabilities. Probabilities have a deterministic quality. They tell you how things will "end" or look like after a large enough sample of trials. [random Events video]

I will give you a great advantage. Let's say that the pocket of a specific number on an American wheel is 50% wider than the rest numbers. Imagine that - it is an advantage players dream, right? What it actually means is that this specific number has 3,9% probabilities to show versus 2,6% of the rest of the numbers and versus 2,7% of a number in a fair European wheel.

Now you consider this 1,2% advantage over a fair European wheel number so crucial that you claim you can make a living out of it, yet when I point out the 48,6% probability of Even chances and tell you that Black cannot sleep for too long too often you tell me that anything is possible and my premise is based on Gambler's Fallacy. I'm not "allowed" to expect the 48,6% chances of Black to materialize or have any effect within the next 50 or 100 spins, but your 1,2% advantage will surely take effect and provide you with steady income day in and day out.

The truth is that you can't have it both ways. You can't on one hand claim that the casino will win based on the 2,7% house edge or that you will win based on a 1,2% advantage and at the same time say that one can not depend on Red or Blacks 48,6% probabilities for it to show up.

For you it is always a question if and when and how many times High or Low numbers will appear, yet it is always written in stone and sure as US treasuries that bias numbers will hit more often.

« Last Edit: August 20, 2017, 06:56:06 PM by kav »

#### kav

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2017, 06:55:56 PM »
Disclaimer: The above is written with respect to all advantage players. I'm just being argumentative in order to ignite discussion and RESPECTFUL debate.

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#### Bebediktus

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2017, 07:43:57 PM »
Quote
Why AP doesn't work
This sentence is not right from the begining - AP simply cant - not work , if it not work it is not AP
Quote
Let's say that the pocket of a specific number on an American wheel is 50% wider than the rest numbers. Imagine that - it is an advantage players dream, right? What it actually means is that this specific number has 3,9% probabilities to show versus 2,6% of the rest of the numbers and versus 2,7% of a number in a fair European wheel.

Now you consider this 1,2% advantage over a fair European wheel number so crucial
If number is 50% wider it will hit 1.5 times more often and that means, that it have about 46% advantage....you somehow get 3.9% ....
But even if it is 3.9% then you must compare with minus 2.7% in normal situation  so that is 6.6% better and looks that you not imagine what is 6.6%.... that is huge advantage if know that it is for sure.....

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2017, 07:49:35 PM »
Kav, how would one debate with opponent who don't know the subject? No one would bet one number only..  to realise 1% edge... it's really mean that you will never see your profit.
Picture in real life looks a bit different, there much more then one number on offer and edges are much more substantial. More numbers mean less variance , more edge mean profit today...

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2017, 08:22:24 PM »

Well ! You got  your wish kav. You ignited Discussion  .
The only  definition of the Gamblers' Fallacy by Professional  Mathematicians  that I have read refers to something  being " Due" and ONLY to that event .
AP only means Advantage Play and is based on the ASSUMPTION that a mathematical  advantage has been gained
. I do not think that the AP in this forum can do what they claim AFTER they have decided what to calculate because there is insufficient time to calculate their many factors before NMB. Therein lies their fallacy
Pointing that out to them incurs  abuse but  no  discussion. So far as I am aware there is no Physicist or Mathematician that accepts the possibility that they can do what they claim . That is why bona-fide AP use a computer to make their calculations.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2017, 08:24:49 PM by scepticus »

#### Real

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2017, 09:39:29 PM »
If a system junkie can't comprehend that they're mind is trapped in the box that's the gambler's fallacy, then why on earth would you expect them to comprehend playing with an advantage?  There's a reason that some system players actually believe that the world is flat.  Some people are beyond reach.

The job of the system players is to feed the bear.  The job of the ap is to win the money.

"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid." -Ben Franklin
« Last Edit: August 20, 2017, 10:12:37 PM by Real »

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2017, 11:06:52 PM »

Thanks Real for confirming my point that you don't indulge in discussion.
Genuine AP  use a computer for their calculations , you guys don't . Your claim that you don't need one . THAT is my challenge for you to prove but, as usual, you avoid discussion.
So stop sneering at Method players and discuss  with other AP in the forum .
« Last Edit: August 21, 2017, 12:06:25 AM by kav »

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2017, 12:11:36 AM »
Sceps, if you are already speaking about a subject , probably you could point out for what exactly AP would use a computer?
I even will give you a hint, possible answers could be:
A) analysis of past data
B) creation of playing model
C) prediction of resulting number ( sector) in current spin.
You can choose any of these, just please explain, why on your opinion it can not be done without a computer.

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#### scepticus

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2017, 12:38:24 AM »

Let me make myself clear Mr Perfect.
I will no longer respond to your posts,
You regard me as a Liar while I regard you as a screwball.
I leave it at that .

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2017, 02:36:57 AM »
Scepticus, is it a best you can do? As you see lm not being personal, just helping you to stucture your arguments to explain your point best you can.
So with the computer we already decided - dismissed.
Let's tolk about "many factors" needed to calculate ( mentioned by you previosly) in time to place bets? Could you point them out and explain required time interval nessesary to calculate them, and why on your oppinion it is impossible for me or our fellow AP friends?
I very admire your definition of AP being an assumption that math advantage have been gained. In fact it's not. AP ( roulette) is a combination of applied physics, applied statistics and applied mathematics.  Advantage in roulette can be gained in one way only - limiting degrees of freedom of the system. Tools mentioned above are very useful in providing means to find, verify and explore advantage in this game. It's a matter of the fact, wich is undeniable and widely recognised by the experts in this industry.
As you can see , l address your statements and provide you discussion that you crave so much, without touching your fragile personality.
I just want that you argument anything that you'v got to say, assuming you'v really got anything...

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#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2017, 01:11:35 PM »
To prevent future not populated arguments, l would like to state following :
ADVANTAGE IS OFFERED BY THE WHEEL ( BALL) ITSELF.  It is what it is, can be traced and verified by anyone interested in his local casino.
There are 2 main phenomenon that offer advantage :
1. Limit in ball travel path ( works for vb)
2. Desbalance in number hit frequency  ( good for bias)....
Wheels generally are not very perfect or very broken, but something in between. ... whatever wheel has inclination to ( more good then broken, or more broken then good) will particularly determine method of prediction and exploration.
Please keep in mind statements mentioned above if you wanna comment on this tread, let's address any problems or misunderstanding directly, so we can have a productive discussion,  right?

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#### dobbelsteen

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2017, 09:49:05 PM »
Ask 10 different called AP players, what is their advantage  and edge, I think you become 10 different answers
My advantage at the roulette is my mind and the knowledge of random rows.
A player is not able to discover an anomaly of the occurrence of the numbers. This is also valid for a bias of a fair RNG. 1M spins is not enough to discover real anomalies. Pseudo anomalies are variance of the randomness.

#### Real

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2017, 10:30:52 PM »
Your advantage from "random rows" isn't an really advantage.    However, advantage players play with a real advantage over the casino which is why they're referred to as being "advantage players."

#### kav

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2017, 10:17:15 AM »
Let's go back to basics and keep it simple.

Gambler's fallacy if you think about it, is based on the expectation of the player, that theoretical probabilities would manifest themselves on a limited number of spins. This is why the player thinks that since the probability of red is roughly 50% after 6 Blacks the Red will make a comeback.

In the same sense the AP thinks that the theoretical INCREASED probabilities would manifest themselves in a limited number of spins. Let's say for example that a 8 numbers section has a biased probability of 28% instead of the normal 21,6%. Isn't it gambler's fallacy to expect that this advantage will manifest itself in a limited number of spins?

To put it another way, if Red that has roughly 50% probability can sleep for 17 spins again and again and appear only 33% over a large number of spins, then also your biased numbers can sleep as well. Even biased numbers can have fluctuations and disappear or get cold for considerable periods of time. Believing otherwise is Gambler's Fallacy.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2017, 12:32:17 PM by kav »

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#### Bebediktus

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##### Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2017, 10:34:33 AM »
There are no difference, limited spins number or not. The only matter is to play numbers, with positive expectattion. AP is that, who can do that enough good.

Of course even playing positive numbers we sometimes loss. You must understand and look to wheel like to your oponent and think,  you are stronger than he or not. If you are stronger - you play and finally will end in positive result.And here is no matter when that  final will come...

That is like if Grandmaster will play chess against simple player, or say if like Lithuania will play basket against Poland. Of course bouth can win , but one side have much bigger chances....