Author Topic: Talos_Dump  (Read 25460 times)

jekhb76

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #390 on: March 08, 2017, 04:42:18 PM »
thanks Juice for you honest opinion.
i'm here on this forum to learn, in some way or another. luckly there are many people on this forum who will help you learn, some will do it the easy way and some the hard way. but in both ways i will learn. I post systems that i like, and that is working for me (for now) but if it doesn't work for another and he or she spits on me or on the system, well so be it. But the most who coment are the ones who want to help to get the system better.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #391 on: March 08, 2017, 04:43:40 PM »
I have done it!  DOUBLED MY BANK THREE TIMES IN A ROW!

This is the first time I have done this with any system in now 3 years of playing roulette!

Attached is the output file with about 2.5 of the full 3 doubling of my bank; I started recording the output early on in the first doubling attempt.

The following sequences will NOT be part of the output:

1) Anything that wins in the first 3 bets
2) Anything that wins on the first step after the Core Progression
2a) EXCEPTION: If the first hit in the Core Progression was on the 3rd bet or below, all subsequent bets to that first hit WILL be included in the output

In other words, only actual recovery sessions will be part of the output. 

My bankroll now stands at 4205 units profit; 1 coup at a time, scrapping all losses back to at least +1.  Notice these are not betting events, these are successful coups -- very many more betting events have been logged.

This is a massive testimony of the power of the Talos philosophy for preservation of the bankroll:

I will point out once again the most important question of them all, and is the most important because if you solve this dilemma you will have the key to the system: How can I keep the balance low so to wait till the numbers come in my favor?

Normally, as many many times in the past, when the worst session hits, my bankroll should be wiped out handily -- THIS DID NOT HAPPEN!

Instead, I just kept spinning as the debt grew slowly upward and the hits just came in to save me:

Quote from: Dr. Talos
CANON 52
The average hit/number played is what I rely upon. 1/60 can be seen not enough, in a short term, but I play a lot of numbers for a lot of spins, so sooner or later I will get it, because "mathematically" the average will tend to be 1/38, am I wrong?

There were two EXTREME knock down dragout sesssions in 4205 successful coup attempts and a third that almost became extreme.  This is where improvement is needed.

Can there be worse sessions yet?  Yes, the real question is how often are we likely to even see them? 

Its true, my system is not the Talos system, its only based on its principles and I guarantee you my system is vulnerable where his simply isn't but I am willing to accept a system that will once in a great while have a blow out loss of 1400 units after many sessions winning 1400 over and over.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2017, 07:10:17 PM by Reyth »
 
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jekhb76

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #392 on: March 08, 2017, 04:52:29 PM »
Good job Reyth !
 
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Jake007

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #393 on: March 08, 2017, 05:22:37 PM »


I meant to say !

Im only on page 13 so far.... holy cow, very interesting. I'll add when I catch up!
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 11:08:13 AM by kav »
 
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Sheridan44

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #394 on: March 08, 2017, 05:56:31 PM »
Should I find a method that was profitable, I personally would have no problems sharing it.

It would not bring the casinos down to their knees... at most - they would simply just develop new countermeasures.

I am reminded of Thorp's revolutionary super blackjack card counting system from years past....which has been proven to give its user an edge. The casino's still offer blackjack...none were closed down...no one was laid off because of it. They just adjusted to it (multiple deck shoes and constant reshuffling) and moved on. And some casino's still offer single deck games.

The art of playing such a system would be stealth....not playing at one table/casino too long. You would be among many other players playing haphazardly with no system at all (the casino's bread and butter).
« Last Edit: March 08, 2017, 06:28:37 PM by Sheridan44 »
 
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Geoffrey

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #395 on: March 08, 2017, 07:07:34 PM »
the whole idea of a forum is about sharing ideas and knowledge, learn from each other.

Who's not willing to share, doesn't have his place in a forum. simply because in contradicts the meaning of participating in a forum.

no pun intendid, just my 2 cents
 
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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #396 on: March 08, 2017, 10:13:37 PM »
Well, I for one, am very appreciative for Dr. Talos' contributions.  I feel that he truly has taught me a new gambling skill.  I feel as though I have learned how to bet properly; a hidden secret of betting, if you will.

I am using Sputnik's posted money management method found here:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=919.msg13459#msg13459

10 sessions a day for 70 units each, turning 1,400 units into 73,500 units in a month.

Week #1: 4900 units <=== 3520 Day 5
Week #2: 9800 units
Week #3: 19600 units
Week #4: 39200 units
  ......Total: 73500 units

I will keep you all updated on my progress.

Had another session from heck but once again, the numbers came in to save me.  I don't think any of us appreciate the felt-wide power of the 1:60 ratio.  Anyway, increasing the MBA back to .03 since we have implemented Down, Left 1.5.

Ok, I finally dropped a table bank and went down 2835 units (1400*2 for Week 2) which brings my profit balance down to 3274 (from 6109) which is still over 2 times my initial table bank.  However, it does cause me to return to Week 1, Day 4.  I have marked this session as "###" in the record, for future reference.

Wow, dropped a second table bank before I could recover the first one!  :'(  Well, this brings my profit down to 2748 (from 4140) which is one session under 2 times the table bank and will put me at the end of day three.  At this point the system may be hanging on the edge of obsoletion but there is no way to be sure because it is still possible that this is a statitsical anomaly or limited statistical event.  It is obvious now though that at least 3-4 table banks are required to be secure.

To address this more frequent drawdown than initially expected, I have implemented the Turtle Bet MethodTM where we min bet (6 ratio) after every loss and normal win and we only bet normally if we have a Turtle Bet win or the ratio is 1; this also includes never betting below a DS.

I believe this Turtle betting (also called Occam's Turtle) relates to the Talos "extraordinary" method for keeping the bet amounts low and more about this can be found here:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1252.msg20551#msg20551
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 08:53:14 PM by Reyth »
 
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Geoffrey

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #397 on: March 08, 2017, 10:25:04 PM »
i'm not suprised you appreciate mr talos' approach reyth. you like everything that is posted around here (ok with a bit of exaggeration ) :P
 
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BlueAngel

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #398 on: March 09, 2017, 03:16:21 AM »
Congratulations Reyth for losing your ''virginity'' after 3 years, better later than never.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #399 on: March 09, 2017, 08:07:09 PM »
Ok, since I know that my system is not optimized according to what Talos has accomplished, I am also still in the background searching for the way to make my bets even lower.

This brings up a concept that both Jerome and I have mentioned but I don't think we have looked at seriously yet:

Load Shedding

Let's say that once the bets rise to a certain percentage of the bankroll and the ratio is 2, we will use a load shedding procedure to lower the bets until the ratio increases by 1.  This is to prevent us from having to bet too high when the ratio becomes 1 and calls for us to end the session.

The Shedding would occur by betting the DS instead of the larger sized (but more expensive) bet selection that is normally called for by the HNB & the debt.

The only way this works is if it can be proven that it is less expensive to bet the DS X # times until the ratio increases than it would be to simply bet the larger selection (which adds numbers to the HNB more rapidly).

A possible downside is that we are making it less likely to get a hit as well which could cause statistical issues in our sessions.

Upon further thought, I have just realized that this is the opposite of the surfing technique.  When we surf, we perform a "Coup Deferment to borrow a bet selection increase" but if we do Load Shedding we are "paying back the Coup Deferment loan with a smaller bet selection" both methods seek a "middle ground balance" between the extremes of lowering the bet selection too fast (Coup Deferment) and increasing the bet amount too fast (Load Shedding).

I think this will require a new indicator which I might name LSM (Load Shedding Modifier) which will simply be a percentage of the MBA, where if the ratio is 2 and the bet called for is greater than MBA*LSI, then Load Shedding will occur instead of placing the regular bet.



Well, thinking about this some more and in greater detail, I realize that the real reason Load Shedding is to be performed is to prevent the MBA from calling for a bet selection that is lower than a DS and therefore a modifier is not necessary but instead a formula which would be something like:

IF ((debt+[expected win amount])*MBA)/6>=1 THEN Perform Load Shedding

Which is basically saying:

"if the debt after the current bet (being modified by the MBA) cannot be eclipsed by betting a DS, then bet a DS now instead of the current bet"

Without attemping to think beyond a surface analysis, the only way this should fail is if the profit earned from betting a DS will not be enough to raise the bet selection above a DS.  If this happens, we will end up betting a DS for profit (ratio 1) until the ratio becomes 2, at which time the formula will be repeated.

It is the times when the ratio is 1 and the MBA will not allow a DS bet and instead call for a Quad bet or even below that is a very dangerous situation...

The reason this sliding slope with a 1 ratio occurs is because the HNB is demanding an end to the session even though there have been several missed bets.

Maybe at this point Talos would try to teach us not to let the MBA dictate anymore and to "hold our ground" on the DS for as long as it takes for the ratio to change (no more than 10 bets)?
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 01:52:04 AM by Reyth »
 
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DrTalos

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #400 on: March 10, 2017, 01:58:42 AM »
Today I made a long session (5 hours, more or less), and here my statistics. I don't know if can help you, but I guess they can, if you Reyth look at them seriously.

261 spins
132 units won
112 games (so, as you can see, the average game is from 2 to 3 spins long)
71 games ended at the first spin
18 games ended at the second spin
5 games ended at the third spin
9 games ended at the fourth spin (takes this last two datas with precautions, usually they are the other way around)
9 games were over the fifth spins
31 spins has been the longest session
53 units maximum exposition at the longest session
5 units won in the longest session.

I think this answers to some other questions left unanswered by me some time ago.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 02:00:43 AM by DrTalos »
 
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Rinad

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #401 on: March 10, 2017, 02:30:30 AM »


   Dr Talos,

thank you for sharing on this forum. I just had a question about your text.

are you playing regular roulette table since you played 231 spins in 4/5 hours ?

I thought you had mentioned you only play air ball mostly since it is so much faster. looks like another good day.
half of a unit won per spin is great. good job.
Rinad
 
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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #402 on: March 10, 2017, 12:37:05 PM »
Quote from: Dr. Talos
31 spins has been the longest session
53 units maximum exposition at the longest session

See its statements like these that show me how Talos has taken things to the next level.

By way of comparison, my performance:

22 spins and maximum exposure  279.

This is also difference is also indicated by another Canon, so I already knew about it.  At least we can see he is consistent. :)
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 01:26:19 PM by Reyth »
 
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DrTalos

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #403 on: March 10, 2017, 12:43:43 PM »
Well, not all days are the same.
  I play airball machines, and on average they do 50 spins an hour.

Last week I had a different day, here the stats.

253 spins
96 units won
68 games of which
35 ended at first spin
16 at the second
1 at the third
4 at fourth

5 games over fifth, and three long games, who lasted

46 spins and maximum exposition at 121 for a winning of 11 units
45 spins and maximum exposition at 171 for a winning of 11 units
40 spins and maximum exposition at 103 for a winning of 9 units

wasn't the worst I had, but was very unusual to have three long sessions in the same day
 
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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #404 on: March 10, 2017, 01:28:48 PM »
Wow.  Extremely impressive! 

Yes, since we know that we have discovered his Core Progression, I will agree that it is quite rare to have more than two substantial attacks (longer games) in a single session.  It is less rare to have none and common to have one and sometimes there may be two.

I don't know if this also holds true for Talos but I am finding about 1 "worst" session for every 20 sessions, where 20 sessions doubles the bankroll.

But what he is doing in the longer sessions, I don't even!  I mean my proverbial butt is hanging out in the wind while he is sitting back and sipping pina coladas!

Based on his numbers, I can see why he has such great confidence in not losing.  From the sessions I have played (5000+ successful coups), it appears as though it would be practically impossible for him to lose!

In other words, he clearly has a TRUE HG, not just a winning system.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 07:09:57 PM by Reyth »