Author Topic: Progression safety.  (Read 674 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

MickyP

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 474
  • Thanked: 238 times
  • Gender: Male
Progression safety.
« on: December 20, 2017, 10:40:58 AM »
Progressions are used to try and secure a win within X amount of spins but they do not always yield the desired win.

There are many different types of progressions one can use with different bet selections. As much as progressions are designed to rake in wins, they could be the reason why so many systems and strategies loose. Progressions are not bankroll friendly.

When is it advisable to stop the progression and reset the game relative to your bankroll?
Playing to the table limit is suicidal.


 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

MickyP

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 474
  • Thanked: 238 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2017, 10:54:10 AM »
The above stems from reading about the use of Progressions in many different topics.

 

Sputnik

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 579
  • Thanked: 503 times
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2017, 04:52:43 PM »


This is what you can do - pick one super clever money management methodology - then out from that perspective try to find a method to play - then you will either find that you don't have the bankroll or that you don't have a working method.

For example John Patrick's way of doing things or Brett Morton - excellent solutions.
99.9% of all existing methods in this forum vanish if you apply does rules.

Good Luck

 

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1307
  • Thanked: 670 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2017, 05:15:56 PM »
The stream of numbers can soon or later bring any system down. There is nothing sure.  An early stop loss may add up the losses, and a bolder play may save the day or make everything even worse.
 

MickyP

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 474
  • Thanked: 238 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2017, 06:29:03 PM »
I've presented a pretty simple question and it should have a pretty simply answer. I'll try again with an example.

If the return on your bet is 11-1 ( betting on a single street) how far would you play with progression to win 11 units? In other words how many units would you risk to possibly win the 11 units? Double, triple, ten times the 11 unit return? Knowing the value will help you establish a meaningful stop loss.

Stop loss is a tool and it has its limitations but it offers a degree of protection over your bankroll. Understanding and knowing how to set values and use this tool to your benefit is important.
 

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1307
  • Thanked: 670 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2017, 07:12:31 PM »
Remember we never say we risk 1024 for winning 1 an EC (or any bet). the 11th bet on a martingale is not for winning 1 unit, it is for recover around 1000 units.  I use to progress different, not try to win  all back in one spin, or only progress by higher stakes, we can change the odds of a win as a way of progress.

All progressions can fail, all flat bets fail.  I do not think winners have an edge, and one  can not predict the outcome in short time or even medium.

A progression never guaranty a win, but helps (for a while).
 

MickyP

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 474
  • Thanked: 238 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2017, 09:06:56 PM »
So your use of a progression is in fact a loss recovery tool that fails time and time again. No wonder stop loss was introduced to curb progressions from getting out of hand. This reeks of gamblers fallacy. Expecting a win within your progression. If the risk is routinely 1000 units to make 1 unit then your method of play needs to be trashed.

I'm talking about calculating safety limits within the progression. Different progressions are married to different approaches as a tool to assist in increasing the win rate and limiting risk not increasing it.
 

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1307
  • Thanked: 670 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #7 on: December 20, 2017, 10:12:30 PM »
Stop loss can not secure a bankroll (if we not stop for good), it can only win time because of less play.  The loss is there and must be accepted or we have to win it back.

Next day, waiting or the casino door is not any magic, it is just waiting, which can sometimes be good if we are bored or tired, but  we must play it again, if we want new balance.

If we are 1000 behind it is not the main target to win 1 unit, it is to reduce or better eliminate the minus.

It can take time (and may be impossible) to turn it right.

Main misstake is to use stakes too large for the total bankroll.  Start betting with 10 Euro, and have a bank 10 times bigger.

I lose 1000 and sometimes even 10000, not often, and as I use low value chips I can stand it, and up to now allways come back.

An alternative to stop loss is to question the current method, and use plan B.
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

MrPerfect.

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1469
  • Thanked: 846 times
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2017, 01:27:44 AM »
Plan B... go home. There is always another day.
  Good idea is always to have stop loss. Player do not perform 100% every day..  game is complex and people get tired. There is no point to think about recovery right after the loss, better to cut it and come another day when more focused .
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4074
  • Thanked: 1358 times
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2017, 05:56:33 AM »
Stopping play for a significant period or switching wheels, definitely changes the focus of the random sequence. 

I base my progression on percentage chance to hit; I don't play if I don't have over a 99% chance of gaining a hit within my progression.

For me, this is my safety.  It protects me when I must recover.  If we can consistently gain more profit over a period of time that is LONGER than it takes for us to recover, we have a winning system.

Example:  We bet red with a 3 step Martingale for a total loss of 7 units.  Lets say our recovery method is to increase the unit size to 2 units.  This means that we will require FOUR bets to recover our losses.

If we can consistently win more than 4 units over and over before encountering a loss, we have a winning system.

I personally wouldn't bet any EC without 8 consective bets as part of my betting scheme.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2017, 06:07:40 AM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: MickyP

MickyP

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 474
  • Thanked: 238 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #10 on: December 21, 2017, 09:07:04 AM »
What is the point of pushing a progression in the hope of a win. The more you extend the progression the bigger your losses become. A progression should have a recovery plan in place as Reyth has illustrated. Progressions have an impact on your bankroll so it's important to have a balanced relationship between the two. Progressions should not be a threat to the bankroll and the use of them should be calculated into the bankroll needed to play as you plan.

Use of a limited progression would be to only extend it to three or so spins. Eg; playing 24 numbers it would be 1, 3, 9 or 1,3, 9, 27. The need to go higher is not wise play. The same would apply to bets on fewer numbers. If the progression gets out of hand, the recovery will more than likely fail as well. You don't need the extra stress. Have a realistic progression stop to make recovery shorter and easier.

Without proper planning in the use of progressions what you are actually doing is planning your losses.

If you fail to plan.....You plan to fail.
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4074
  • Thanked: 1358 times
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #11 on: December 21, 2017, 09:31:58 AM »
Here's how I look at it.  If you don't have a long progression you will lose more often because your percentage chances are higher to miss.  Then when you start your recovery, you are also more likely to get ANOTHER miss before you recover and so on.  Eventually you will hit the larger losses anyway, so might as well snap it up with the longest progression you can possibly afford and have a stronger recovery.

Interesting idea though about starting the first level with a SHORTER progression and then maybe move to a longer one for the recovery process...  Dunno.  :shrug:  Major cause of concern ANYTIME there is a session loss because the door is now open to multiple successive losses.

Just talking about progression is only one aspect of a system but it relates to every other aspect as well.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2017, 09:37:54 AM by Reyth »
 

MickyP

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 474
  • Thanked: 238 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #12 on: December 21, 2017, 10:20:26 AM »
It depends on the strategy/system you are playing and of course making use of triggers and other prediction methods.
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

dobbelsteen

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1543
  • Thanked: 529 times
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #13 on: December 21, 2017, 11:04:44 AM »
Every system has the feature to loose. The second feature is that in the short run the result of every system osculates between win and loss. A player plays always short run sessions. The only way to beat the roulette is  a strategy.Small progressions can be a tool, but run after profit is more important. Spread your risk, do not play one strategy and use different chances. I use the imbalance feature of random outcomes and the probability chances. All complex bet selections and systems are very beautiful but very inefficient. I play roulette because  I love the game. I play sessions of about 2 hours. I play, I take a free drink and  do some conversation with the employes or guest.
 
The following users thanked this post: MickyP

Sputnik

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 579
  • Thanked: 503 times
Re: Progression safety.
« Reply #14 on: December 21, 2017, 03:24:35 PM »


I still think i gave the best answer to your question.

Cheers
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth, MickyP