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Author Topic: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?  (Read 1732 times)

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McCoy

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #30 on: November 20, 2017, 11:52:32 AM »
Guys, really... 
    If you stop to confuse spins with past numbers, half of your problems will be resolved by itself. Numbers are result of spins, not vice- versa!!!
    Spins we can measure ( direction, velocities, distances, timings, ball behaviours. ..ets)... but what is there to measure or model on past numbers? ??? ?
 

Mr Perfect you didn't reply to my comment that there must be a connection between past numbers and spin characteristics otherwise it wouldn't be possible to identify bias merely from past numbers. The relationship is undeniable. My contention is that this connection can be explored further by a deeper statistical analysis of past spins. The received dogma that past numbers cannot be any guide to future numbers makes no sense. Even in an RNG where there are no physical parameters the outcomes are predicable up to a point when you look at the long term statistics. If this were not so the casinos would not be able to set their odds. My project is about trying to find out whether it's possible to extract more data from past spins in the short term which will enable the same kind of prediction which is possible in the long term. There are various ways of going about this and machine learning algorithms can help. I know you have an agenda here with your VB course and trying to recruit people to your team and that's fine by me, but let's agree to disagree eh? Just leave those who want to explore other ways to their 'fallacies'.  :)
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #31 on: November 20, 2017, 12:47:32 PM »
McCoy...  let people to their fallacies is fine by me..  BUT... THERE IS A REASON I CAN'T AGREE even to desagre. Sry for that.
   Reason is simple: practicability and common logic.
    Past numbers show what was there, it can help identify bias..  that's OK. 
   Does it help to earn money??? Not really.
         Future results do not depend on past result. Stating otherwise is simply a fallacy.
Numbers are results of spins . Not vice- versa. 
    One thing if you do exploratory analysis to determine if something going on... then numbers can help. But if you are going to " predict "( forcast)... it's all another story.
    Roulette results do display very strong ( undeniable ) cause- effect relationship.  It doesn't mean that past numbers do predict future ones, but past spins can place a fondation to predict future results.
    Numbers do not depend on other numbers, it's a system with many degrees of freedom. Freedom of system is large enough to water down any posible relationships between numbers on long run. Not so large to make spin data random.... that's facts.
     I just speak what l see... and l sou enough to start generalising. What l say can be backed up by data stadies on real cases out there.
    For me ,personally,  do not really matter if you agree with me or not, if you are serious about this game in particular, you will arrive to same conclusions sooner or later. Every body does...
    AP is result of nessesity, when people fed up of loosing , that's a way to go.
    Good vb player is rarity... probably both of your palms have enough fingers to count all of us worldwide. Population is 7 billion!!!!   Do not take it lightly... it takes a bit more then people think in general ... 
 

McCoy

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #32 on: November 20, 2017, 01:10:20 PM »
Mr Perfect still no answer to why it's possible to find a biased wheel using only past numbers if they have no connection to future outcomes? That's common logic too you know.   ;)

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Does it help to earn money??? Not really.

What you mean is *you* haven't found a way to do it.

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What l say can be backed up by data stadies on real cases out there.

I'm not disputing the fact that AP works, only that it's the *only* way. You can't back up the view that there is no way to make use of past numbers, only that you haven't been able to do it successfully, that's a big difference.

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For me ,personally,  do not really matter if you agree with me or not, if you are serious about this game in particular, you will arrive to same conclusions sooner or later. Every body does...

Same here. I don't mind whether you agree with me or not. "Everybody does"? Yes maybe everybody who hasn't found a way to use past numbers effectively, and those who claim they have *must* be mistaken or lying.  ::)
 
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Reyth

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #33 on: November 20, 2017, 01:29:07 PM »
I disagree that millions of trials dilutes the statistical picture, instead it enhances it (for me).

I am not trying to make predictions from short-term spin sequences but instead statistically accurate predictions regarding certain statistical criteria in relation to certain statistical events.  Those events will be isolated within the whole sequence and the more of them I have, the more accurate my data will be.

Regardless, GIGO still applies, as stated in the book.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #34 on: November 20, 2017, 02:30:53 PM »
 McCoy ...
    Do you have a way to show that what you tolk about even exist?
    Just to remind. .. 
 1.    lm the only guy here who actually show on real data how to use past numbers to develop a model for betting( suxsessfull)
 2. I'm the only one here who showed that triggers matter and really make a difference.
     No one before and no one after ..  just me, unfortunately.... l really wish it would be other way, but reality is harsh.
 What all of system players tolk,  l DO. On daily basis.
   So if you, personally, found something , that you ,personally, belive is worth to present on this forum, l sudjest you post it to back up your clames, just posting words or wishful thinking doesn't do the job, sry if it affects you.
    Just for your information....  final numbers itself is not a criteria to find bias wheels. They are found long before any numbers are taken into the account. Numbers are most not important info of all... there are people who do not even bother to take them, and they make money....
  @ Reyth... stats model show what was going on, not what will be. You can't come back in time, can you???
    What allow forcast is physical model. That is adjustable...  stats model is not adjustable... and things are changing. So what you want??? Make money on paper or real life? Past or future? Where your monetary objectives reside?
    It sims that folks do never play..  just post. 

   
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #35 on: November 20, 2017, 03:07:48 PM »
I understand. The real roulette is like an engine. Where the ball will land is dependable on The next physical parameters; the velocity of the ball and the wheel the slow down of the velocity, the ball friction, the humidity of the air, the specific gravity, the place on earth, the temperature and perhaps many more. All these parameters are not constant. The pocket where the ball will land is unpredictable. This is the reason why the outcome is a random pocket ( number).
 
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Reyth

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #36 on: November 20, 2017, 03:31:40 PM »
Mr. Perfect you keep asking the same question and we keep telling you the same answer:

We use the Physics of Statistics.

I personally use probability to find bets that are more likely to succeed and all successful system players do the same.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #37 on: November 20, 2017, 04:37:56 PM »
Dobbelsteen,  mostly you are right...
    For the reasons you mentioned thing becomes predictable. Not on every spin, but in general, definitely yes.
   @ Reyth, " physics of stats"..  or whatever it means...
    Instead l would prefer you guys to use "stats of physics"... so you get results that are logical, reliable, can be reproduced , modeled and used on other wheels as a reference. 
   Physics comes first... action happens on the wheel, not in your simulation program.  It brings money...  and money is good, right?
   I want you guys make a lot of money for yourself, a bit for me and help to work towards encreasing understanding of situations faced by players out there. What is an idea of " physics of stats "? Multiply fallacy? It's already a lot...
 

Reyth

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #38 on: November 20, 2017, 05:27:16 PM »
Your method is more reliable, there is no doubt of this but its not the only possible way.

Gapping is the most reliable example (the only one) that I have found so far that stands up to millions of trials and does not deviate (its not just variance).
« Last Edit: November 20, 2017, 05:29:51 PM by Reyth »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #39 on: November 20, 2017, 05:45:41 PM »
Stats are good... but it's just a tool.
   Gapping  does stay there..  but wich numbers gonna gap?
  We are not there for millions spins either... at least me! No patience to play for so long.
   It's not about what is better, just what can be used. You yourself say that you wanna know when steak start and when it ends... we all want it. But these who use physics do it during the spin, not after few past results. Even like that it's not easy to win.... imagine if you are few spins behind in your decisions.
   Recearch is always good... as long as you like what you do, by any means,  continue to do it.
   I'm here not criticise, just to help if posible. ;)
 

Reyth

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #40 on: November 20, 2017, 05:58:55 PM »
For now I have given up on predicting hot streaks (beginning or end) but as I have been discussing here, I have some testing that I would like to do on it.

Right now my priority is on gaps and finding additional ways to analyze the probabilities.

There are times when one selection is less likely to gap than any other (or at least the vast majority of the other selections).  There are also internal gap statistics that apply to the selection alone, regardless of the state of the board.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2017, 06:02:54 PM by Reyth »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #41 on: November 20, 2017, 09:00:05 PM »
Reyth, l already told you to add me in Skype,  if you wish.
   If you had done this already, what you say ( gaps) would be a bit clear for you :).
 

Reyth

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #42 on: November 20, 2017, 09:56:17 PM »
I am doing some intense training at work and am not currently available to Skype, sorry.
 

McCoy

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #43 on: November 22, 2017, 09:49:21 AM »
So if you, personally, found something , that you ,personally, belive is worth to present on this forum, l sudjest you post it to back up your clames, just posting words or wishful thinking doesn't do the job, sry if it affects you.

Like you have you mean?  ::)
If I do decide to post a full system with all details I'll do so, and unlike you I won't be charging for it. This is a discussion forum Mr Perfect and nobody is obligated to prove anything. It's a place for sharing ideas not a platform for pushing your agenda or advertising.

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It sims that folks do never play..  just post. 

You have no idea how much anyone plays, and this is a discussion forum in case you hadn't noticed.

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Just for your information....  final numbers itself is not a criteria to find bias wheels. They are found long before any numbers are taken into the account.

This is not so. You can find a biased wheel using only past numbers even if there are more efficient ways to do it.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #44 on: November 22, 2017, 11:36:39 AM »
 McCoy,
    1. It's a platform to push my agenda and advertising.  I asked permission  from forum owners and moderators when l came here to do so. 
    My agenda is simple: look for useful people, who could be trained and teached to make money for themselves and for me a bit. Is it clear?
  2. I do have an idea how much anyone play. It's very easy to see from what people post. I already faced almoust all posibe errors player can make in this game myself, l been there, you know... red all books, red all forums, traced almost every idea possible to its origin and logic behind, tested and retested, upplied over and over in real play and simulations.
   3. Numbers only for finding bias wheels is not effective. Posible- well yes, practical. ... well :) .
    Casinos look numbers as well, you know. When it's obvious to you, it's long ego obvious to them as well ( first). They look other things besides numbers... 
    Player , to be effective, has to achieve level of understanding higher then casino. It's simply not your case, Bro.  At least for now. I hope it will change and you will become useful for yourself as a player ( and for me as well).
    There is " in books and forums" roulette "theorium" and there is a real play . When people cross this " line"... this is where real adventure starts.
   I just offer " walk thru the line".... Bro,  like Morfius from matrix... red or blue. I happened to jump it myself and really want some few more to jump it ;) . It's not easy here , on another side... some help is needed. Are you the one?
« Last Edit: November 22, 2017, 11:47:25 AM by MrPerfect. »
 
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