Author Topic: Dobbelsteen`Blog  (Read 107532 times)

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dobbelsteen

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Dobbelsteen`Blog
« on: November 20, 2014, 10:34:59 AM »
Dobbelsteen`s blog
On advice of Kav I open this thread as a blog. I play nearly 40 years in my land based casino in Zandvoord. This casino is the first legal casino of the Netherlands. From the beginning, I am addicted to the roulette.
The random sequences draw my specific attention. Since we have PCs, I simulate the roulette and study these sequences. I like to analyze the the different sequences. Mathematical and statistic knowledge is not necessary but very useful. In this thread, I will share my knowledge and experience with you. Some of my ideas I have publiced in other topics.
Don`t expect beautiful essays from me.
Some topics are to discus and others only to read or study. Don`t hesitate to contact me for questions.  English is not my first language, so I ask for a little bit understanding.


 
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TheGenner

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2014, 12:15:29 PM »
Thank you for starting a blog Dobbelsteen,

 I am looking forward to reading your posts.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2014, 02:13:21 PM »
In the Netherlands casinos the last French roulette is removed. They were too expensive to employ. In the busy hours there was a table chief and three croupiers. The croupiers take the announces and put the jetons on the table. The neighbour play  and sector play are very popular in Europe. Three croupiers were reduced by one and the jetons by colored chips. The table layout was expanded with a layout for the sector play. This was not enough and the table chief is replaced by camera`s. The next step in efficiency was the Multi roulette and the number of tables were reduced. The Multi Roulette consist of a table console coupled by a camera to more than one real table.
The roulette rules are the same, except the EN Prison rule. Now you lose your bets on the ECs after one zero instead of two zero`s. The name is changed in American roulette, but from my point of view only the double zero roulette is the American roulette.
My analyses and system tests are all based on this roulette.
 

kav

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2014, 02:52:45 PM »
Dobbel,

Congratulations for starting this blog.
I know very well that it will be hard work to try and explain your thoughts as simply and clearly as possible in a foreign language. Take your time, you don't have to post everything at once.
Your first posts are very interesting and I like the fact that you start by explaining even the roulette tables you are playing at. Thank you very much for your efforts.

Keep up the good work!
 

Romn.Paras

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2014, 09:41:23 PM »
Nice work Dobbel.

Looking forward to reading more of your blog. Keep up the great work!
 

Dane

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2014, 07:49:06 AM »
Hello Dobbel,
Yes, looking forward to reading more here. I visited Holland once  many years ago together with a large group of meditators. Maharishi living there used to call Holland "The land of WHOLENESS". But when we are not joking, we ought to use the right names if we can. You seem to prefer "Netherlands".
Here in Denmark the  brick and mortar Casinos use to offer what they call "American Roulette"; but I think you are right that only the double zero roulette is the only true American roulette. In some book I read that the hybrid we know should be called "English roulette". At such roulette tables
Double zero means nothing to us. But in many European Casinos winners are strongly adviced to give tips ("Stück für die Angestellten") to the croupiers or dealers. Almost as bad as double zero!
This pressure differs froms country to country. Lately I learned in Spielbank Potsdam (close to Berlin),  that the airball roulette machine there automatically takes tips.
. In Denmark the Touchbet Roulette machine linked to a real roulette with dealer does NOT take tips! And at the main Casinos in Sweden the dealers are simply not allowed to receive tips!

 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2014, 11:18:07 AM »
Thanks you all for the encouraging words.
Till now I did not visit casinos abroad.
The touch screen roulette is the same as our Multi Roulette. On my email I received some questions about some details of the table console.
The console has a touch screen for the normal layout and the sector layout. There are six windows. The most import window is the window with the stats of the past 50 spins. Before I start  to play , I always consult first these stats. On the wager window you find the history board of the last 20 spins.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2014, 03:18:51 PM »
Roulette House Edge: Is no big deal.
In this paper the influence of the house edge is explained. We have the mathematical approach of this theory and the practical one. The mathematicians compute the  probability of a chance, called the Expected Value.  The player is interested in the negative profit expectation of the game, called the House Edge. The EV of the France roulette is 2,7. For the ECs the HE is 1,35% and for all the other chances 2,7%.
Many roulette players do not know, that the HE also depends on the bets. Put your chips on a EC and other chances, the HE has a value between 2,7% and 1,35 %.
The HE of a mixed bet is easy to compute with a true sample of 37 spins. Put one unit on Red and one on every chance else for example number 26. The total input 74 units. The total payout  36 + 2x18+0,5=72,5 unit. The HE of this bet is 2,03%.
This comment makes the above mentioned paper more completed.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2014, 02:51:55 PM »
List of the best roulette systems.

Are there bad and best roulette systems?

First we have to define a system. From my point of view, a system has a random begin of a play session and a finish with a hit. The soul of a system is the betting schedule. There are hundreds of systems, but the most famous or classic systems are D`Alembert, La Boucheere, Fabionaci and on this site the Kavourac Bet.

To judge the different, we must compare the permanence’s of the systems.

Each permanence must content the results of a macro long run sample and the average of a number nano samples. The largeness of the samples must be reprehensive for the kind of chance. In this case, I will keep me in the bounds of the ECs without the EN Prison rule.
For all systems the long run theory is valid .The loss shall be 2,7% of the total bets. It is much more difficult to judge small samples. The variance and the deviations are big. For a reliable comparison it is necessary to compute the average of a lot of samples. I did it for many systems and my conclusion is, the differences are too small, to give a honest answer, which is the best system.

For ranking the systems, the HE is more suitable. From this point of view all systems on the ECs are the best. Second best are the mixed bet systems and last all the other ones.
The number of units, you bet per spin, influence your loss of units. From this point of view, a flat betting system on the ECs with one unit is the best.
Not occasional I did not mention the Martingale system. An unlimited Martingale session shall always end with a profit. It is the only system who beats the HE. My Martingale SSB system is based on an opportunity with a chance of 1 to 2^20. The graph of a 150 spin sample gives a profit of about 70 units.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #9 on: November 26, 2014, 01:52:57 PM »
The3 triangle of Blaise Pascal

Before you design a system or a strategy, you must learn a little bit about the statistic expectations. Special for the DCs the triangle of Blaise Pascal is a very handsome tool.
The picture shows all the possible combinations after a number of spins.
The picture is an example for a 4 spin sample. It is easy to make such a picture for a 6 spin sample.

                                   The triangle of Blaisse Pascal

                                 Possible sequences after 4 spins

Spins                                                 Occurrences
             1                        R     Z                        2
             2                     R     Z      R                    4
             3                  R    Z     R      Z                 8
             4               R    Z    R      Z     R             16

             After 4 spins there are 16 possible series.

       These are:
                         RRRR         ZZZZ
                         RRRZ         ZZZR
                         RRZZ         ZZRR
                         RRZR         ZZRZ
                         RZZZ          ZRRR
                         RZRR          ZRZZ
                         RZRZ          ZRZR
                         RZZR          ZRRZ

            There are at least 64 spins need, to create these 16 series.
   The zero is denied.
   It is very easy to expend this triangle for more spins.
   A 6 spins event has 64 different series. To create all these series you need 384 spins.
    A 10 spins series  has a chance of 2^10=1024 to 1.

 

Dane

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #10 on: November 26, 2014, 01:55:17 PM »
"An unlimited Martingale session shall always end with a profit". Sure!
This idea has fascinated many beginners. A nice dream!
Listen to Bob Dylan´s "LOVE MINUS ZERO (NO LIMITS)"!
In the real world, however, we are  almost always confronted with both Zero AND A LIMIT.

With negative progressions it is simply a question of time, before we lose!
Anyone can "prove" that some method seems to be superiour with a negative progressions in the short run.

"LOOK AT THIS - MY BALOON IS GOING UP, UP, UP"

Better find out, if your bet selection
passes the test of TIME when you use MASSE
                                                        ÉGALE  (flat betting)!

 

kav

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #11 on: November 26, 2014, 02:26:23 PM »
If your bet selection can win with flat betting, then you don't need a system. Just bet the "magical bet selection" again and again. However this seems much more unrealistic than a winning roulette strategy.

I copy what I posted in another forum:
Quote
Roulette is a game, constructed to give the advantage to the casino.
In order to be able to compete with this we must use every little option we have at our disposal.
Entry and exit points, observation, bet selection and of course money management are options and tools in our quest to win.
It would be stupid not to use each and every one of them to create a valid strategy.

Flat betting only means that you think your bet will come more often than theoretically expected. This is a huge unprovable claim! (not to use another word)
Furthermore if there was a system that wins flat betting, it can easily be turned into a system that wins even more by using the proper progression.

Roulette is a hard game as it is. Use all your options in your fight. You have not the luxury to dismiss the flexibility and adaptability offered by the proper money management.
 

Dane

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #12 on: November 26, 2014, 02:49:07 PM »
If your bet selection can win with flat betting, then you don't need a system. Just bet the "magical bet selection" again and again. However this seems much more unrealistic than a winning roulette strategy.

I copy what I posted in another forum:
Quote
Roulette is a game, constructed to give the advantage to the casino.
In order to be able to compete with this we must use every little option we have at our disposal.
Entry and exit points, observation, bet selection and of course money management are options and tools in our quest to win.
It would be stupid not to use each and every one of them to create a valid strategy.

Flat betting only means that you think your bet will come more often than theoretically expected. This is a huge unprovable claim! (not to use another word)
Furthermore if there was a system that wins flat betting, it can easily be turned into a system that wins even more by using the proper progression.

Roulette is a hard game as it is. Use all your options in your fight. You have not the luxury to dismiss the flexibility and adaptability offered by the proper money management.

If the short term solutions with dreams,  flexibility, adaptability and proper management words
did not include negative progressions as an option, then the number of letters here might be reduced!
An alternative to what seems to be narrowminded MASSE
                                                                         ÉGALE thinking could be positive progressions.
 

kav

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #13 on: November 26, 2014, 03:15:09 PM »
So you say that you don't believe in the benefit of up as you lose progressions.
That's ok.
However, we must realize that when we talk about a bet selection that can win with flat betting, is, in essence, almost as outrageous, as saying that 'I know which number will come next'.
 

Dane

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Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2014, 09:56:23 AM »
I am sure that that casinos are happy to see guests
who find flat betting "almost outrageous".

I have recently developed a method with flat betting on single numbers
COMBINED WITH A POSITIVE PROGRESSION ("up as you win") on streets.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 09:12:45 PM by kav »