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Reyth

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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #30 on: October 03, 2017, 04:19:25 AM »


CHECK OUT THE TOTAL KoH DEVASTATION!







JUST HIT 4 FULL RECOVERY LEVELS IN PROFIT!




The STR rules only allow us to bet when our selection is showing a pattern of balanced short cycles of activity, where each of the active numbers are cycling at the same time.










This is an uncontested KoH with a 5 STR failure.  Only +351 on this run and so have taken a small loss from the Sun Deck.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +8908





Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +8994





Sun Deck Recovery.  Target: +9018





Debt fully recovered.

Random_Demo





This was a 4 STR uncontested failure.



Here we notice that DS 13-18 has a faster PLE Ratio even though our selection is faster in the HS Ratio.  This is a sign that DS 1-6 is on a long-term decline and this session should be spun through or reset.

Only +148 on this run.  Resetting session.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +9058





Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +9142





Sun Deck Recovery.  Target: +9168





Debt recovery complete.





This was a closesly contested 4 STR failure.  Abandoning this corrupted session.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +9254





Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +9340





Sun Deck Recovery.  Target: +9364





Debt fully recovered.



Abandoning this session.



DSA Dialog



This is a 5 STR.  28 and 31 have recently awakened after falling asleep and are now repeating.  30 has recently fallen asleep but has been performing above expectation over the last 1326 spins.

Anyway, what I have realized is that is possible to total all of the HS Ratios of a selection which will provide a collective rating.  When the ratings for each selection are compared we can identify medium (short?) term trends of each number viewed as a collective vs. the long-term trend as indicated by the main HS Ratio for the selection.

What this should reveal is medium (short?) term trends that are contrary to the main  HS Ratios for each selection.

That is, our selection may have the highest HS Ratio and no other selection is anywhere within 100 points BUT there may be selections that are performing better than our selection in their numbers as a collective.

Or I am just mentally confounded and have no idea what I am babbling about? :shrug:

I think the answer to predicting PLE's can be found in this DSA screen.

I think a better way of doing this is to add the STR figures together for each selection and then ranking them by totals.  This will truly show the short-term trends of each selection and will indicate the quality of the STR Rating in the DSA Rules.

That is, our selection may have a 4 STR rating but its STR Quality is only FOUR which means all numbers in the selection have hit only once whereas there can be a selection with only a 3 STR but its quality is 12, which is three times as many hits.

I didn't want to get into STR quality because it is such a tangled mess of logical iterations but I think it is important to start tracking it.

I think the easiest way to implement it, is to simply display it below the PLE ratio of each selection on the main screen as a digit that is color coded by its total amount.

implementing...implemented.

Statistical_Update





Abandoning this session in order to get the additional statistical analysis updates.



Documenting this PLE:



Just prior to BEGINNING TO BET.  As we can see this is a 5 STR (due to the green title coloring) and is clearly KoH.  I took this screenshot because of the opposition which I was able to view (due to the new updates):

1) The QoH is 28-33 with a 5 STR and only 1 behind on the QR
2) 22-27 is opposing us with a 5 STR AND an equivalent QR of 7
3) 13-18 is the same as 22-27

This is an early session and so all opponents are within 2-5 hits away.

This would appear to be a time of dispersion...

As we can see below, it turned out that all this opposition stole my hits and one of them, DS 13-18, became KoH.

Before betting, I thought to myself, "This appears to be significant opposition and based on how it appears I would not bet BUT I would normally be betting here automatically and so I will continue to do so and document it".





Just before the PLE hit.



Immediately after the PLE.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +9317





Its not so much only the tide level of my selection but also the tide level of the rest of the board! 

I haven't even thought of an organized way to classify the tide levels of my opponents, which now I can see much more clearly at a glance!





Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +9402



Sun Deck Recovery.  Target: +9427



Debt fully recovered.





The tide of a selection also includes the SQ numbers.  Any SQ of 10 and above is probably at least High Tide and 12+ is probably King Tide.

The SQ figures probably work something like this:

15 14 13 10 8 6 6 4 4 4 3

GREEN = active hit list
BLACK = median
RED = maintenance list


They operate as short-term hit predictors where the active hit list is more likely to hit and the maintenance list is more likely to not hit and to gap.

The list is constantly fluctuating in an ebb and flow fashion where selections run through short-term cycles of fast and slow.

The difficulty lies in the fact that the short-term cycles change rapidly and without detailed analysis, it is very easy to not notice the cycle change in our selection.

The only way to make consistent sense out of it, is to follow the long-term trend that is a "higher governing force" (i.e. RNG BiasTM), by remaining on the most biased selection and to carefully study the SQ numbers as they cycle; we must always allow for our selection to slow down, despite the long-term bias.

One of the most important things I have learned from the SQ numbers is that even the slowest numbers will become hot/the hottest from time to time.  The key with RNG BiasTM is that the biased selection will do this more often than any other selection and will even hit more often while on the maintenance list.



The Cliff Principle

Every hot selection will cycle through times of strength and weakness, where when weak, it is likely to fall out of favor with the rest of the board (SQ rating).

This can be predicted by examining the numbers of spins since each of its active numbers have hit; the closer to 27 that the number is, the more likely it will lose favor.

Of course, the weak numbers can get an early hit and the selection can continue in strength but I like to not bet when a hot selection has become weak and let it "prove itself" or fall out of favor.

The scenario we are trying to avoid is:

a) multiple numbers fall from active status (fall off the cliff)
b) other selections become favored in the SQ list
c) our selection has a PLE







This was a 6 STR failure following a PLE 11 coups ago; our selection went to a full 6 STR and strong SQ, straight down to 0.  This is the first time I have seen a move this savage on a KoH; a BSE.

Because it was a 6 STR I was betting 1 full unit.

I am abandoning this session because the KoH has a slower PLE Ratio than numbers that are performing more slowly.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +9595

Some_Recovery





Abandoning this session because of too much long-term dispersion that eventually caused the HS Ratios to exceed the boundaries of the PLE Ratios; i.e. very low HS Ratios that are able to achieve a highest rating through only short-term streaks.



Early sessions account for multiple recent failures and I need to be clear on the following concepts:

1) Without an established long-term bias, the hottest selections will fluctuate based on short-term streaks which are unreliable.

2) An established long-term bias can begin to be shown when all competition is at least 6 hits away, which is a full 37 spin expectation cycle.

3) To avoid bizarre streaks that occur very early, at least one PLE must be present on the board, before betting.





Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +9762



Abandoning this session due to a depressed HS Ratio.



Sun Deck Recovery.  Target: +9816



This PLE was a 5 STR & a 13 SQ which was the highest at the time.  Amazingly, it plunged straight downward as DS 1-6 took over KoH.



Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +9661



Abandoning this session due to wild swings by DS 25-30.



This is the type of activity that would typically be understood as "random" and is not normally seen with KoH; at least I have not yet seen the KoH behave this way, until now.



The Scapegoat

An amazing observation!  All the severely positive activity that we receive from the KoH MUST be balanced with severely negative activity in other selections (since we are dealing with a closed circuit in possible results) and because random is never perfectly balanced for any extended period of time, it MUST reflect in a worst selection just as KoH is the best selection.



Like Rinad says, "we know for a fact we ain't playing that Scapegoat!". :D

Hilarious but it even has its "Goat Queen" in DS 13-18!

LOL.



Level_2_Recovery



Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +9778



Abandoning this session due to being "hemmed in" by DS 13-18 and DS 22-27, both having negative PLE's.  I guess this is just an example of an unfortunate grouping of numbers. 

The key to our success is staying with long-term successful selections by following the HS Ratio but an early PLE in a selection's history can potentially be a very bad sign and so its best not to work with those selections.



Sun Deck Recovery.  Target: +9816



Debt fully recovered.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2017, 02:27:01 AM by Reyth »
 
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Reyth

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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #31 on: October 08, 2017, 02:50:50 AM »

Time to pull back for a proper perspective and some bankroll profit analysis. 

Ever since around 9000 it has been quite a struggle with small gains peppered by losses.  Its nice to see a consistent overall up-trend on the balance though; it makes me feel like my work actually accomplished something! :D

Now I can go back through my documentation to about 9000 balance and see how it went.  I suspect that early session failures are largely to blame, where all of the established sessions were used to regain profit instead of generate new profit.

Quote from: Recent PLE History Since 9000 BU Profit
1) 1167 spins -- 5 str failure
2) 1996 spins -- 4 str failure
3) 2003 spins -- 4 str failure

--- discovered SQ Rating ---

4) 126 spins -- 5 str failure *** EARLY ***
5) 2618 spins -- 6 str failure KoH BSE
6) 272 spins -- 5 str failure *** NOT EARLY ***

Wow.  I was completely wrong.  Out of the 6 PLE's that occurred in the last 1000 BU of profit taken, only ONE could be said to be due to playing a session too early.

The first 3 COULD be said to have happened to due to blindness regarding the state of the board, where the SQ Ratings MIGHT have helped to avoid a PLE.

We discount the 4th due to playing before even 4 full individual LotT cycles.

Both 5 & 6 were due to massively large moves against our position that defied the statistical picture at the time.  I feel that if I can keep all PLE's to this category, I should be in great shape.

Now, the future will tell us how to understand our past!.
.




Abandoning this session because the KoH has an existing PLE whereas the selection of choice DS 16-21 has none.



.
.


Abandoning this session.



PLE dodged, session abandoned.



I don't think I will forget this but just in case:

The SQ Ratings are a great way to track how long numbers in our selection have been hitting within 27 spins by providing a numerical rating which represents the total number of times all of the currently active (maintaining a streak without a gap by the whole group) numbers have hit; the higher the value, the greater the consistency of the currently active numbers (the longer the overall streak unbroken by a gap).

A similar rating can be created for HS Ratios of the individual numbers in our selection.  This will show the collective return frequency of the currently active (maintaining a streak without a gap) numbers.

Meh.  I am just not sure this will be useful because slow numbers can speed up too.

In general though, the slower a number is, the more likely it is that it will remain slow.

Meh.  Brain hurting...



This brings up the concept of betting long-term biased selections based on the sleeping status of the numbers.  If there could be some way to determine when a selection is more likely to wake up...





Abandoning this session.  Installed a new Strength Meter which allows us to easily see when a streak has hit the tail end (even though its STR & SQ might be strong).

This selection had 2 PLE's (both dodged from the Shelter) back to back!  Of course I immediately bet a full unit and got the hit within about 5 spins.

Here is what it looked like:







PLE dodged, session abandoned.  Like usual, PLE's are like a creeping disease.  I watched as first DS 1-6 had a PLE, followed shortly by DS 7-12 and well you can guess what happened next.

Its amazing to see how PLE's affect their neighbors.  This has been a consistent observable phenomenon during all of my testing.  I guess once 1/2 of a DS falls asleep, it just makes it more likely that the entire DS will gap.

Strength_Meter_DEMO



This was a strong 4 STR with only one SQ rival.  I forecasted a loss of a number but showed greater strength than the losses from the competition.  The problem was that I did that with only a 4 STR, which means that I am continuing with only a 3 STR.

It was also a time of close combat with DS 31-36 and of course it obtained several hits during the sequence.

Furthermore, DS 1-6 just had a BSE recently which does not bode well for its immediate neighbor, which is not a good time to take risks.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +10268

Just accidentally shut off my comp.  I think my recovery total was 10029 but to be sure I don't make a mistake, I will put it at what it has to be without any doubt, which is 10001.

Of course the session has been completely reset.




Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +10353



Abandoning this session and modding software.



Tough mod, doing it in installments.  Sometimes spinning is easier than coding... O_o

This session is non-typical where there has been a pretty balanced distribution over 700 spins, with the entire board (including the PLE's!) all positively oriented (although hitting slower than expectation); the Scapegoat is barely visible in DS 25-30.

Sun Deck Recovery.  Target: +10378



Debt fully recovered.



This was a strong 4 STR that although was in its "middle stage" was stronger than all opponents and top of the SQ Ratings as we can see from the Strength Meter numbers 27, 37, 39 & 40.



First its neighbor DS 16-21 had a PLE followed by a BSE and then all 9 numbers all fell off at the same time:



How many times do I have to see this pattern of correction before I realize that it doesn't pay to bet a KoH when its neighbor has had a PLE and especially a BSE?

Resetting this session.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +10275



Resetting this session.



Abandoning this session, PLE dodged.



PLE dodged, session reset.




Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +10360



Resetting.



Reset.



Played this early with one PLE on the board, significant range from opponents & particularly strong characteristics.

Sun Deck Recovery.  Target: +10385



Debt fully recovered.



PLE dodged, resetting session from Casino B.



This was an extremely strong 5 STR, far better than all competition that literally fell out of the sky -- 27,28,29,34,37 on the Strength Meter.



Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +10334



Abandoning session.



Did some testing and found the figure of 423 cumulative missed spins in an entire DS will yield a hit just over 99.1% of the time, with just under 2.6M coups generated.

Subtracting 27 from this figure brings 396 cumulative spins which is an average of 66 per number.

So, if we total all missed spins for a selection and it is 396 or greater, we should bet that DS to wake up and will have slightly over a 99.1% chance of hitting.

Added to Strength Meter.

Code: [Select]
808 / 2554011 / 396 /.985
831 / 2554842 / 397 /.985
746 / 2555588 / 398 /.985
740 / 2556328 / 399 /.985
813 / 2557141 / 400 /.986
736 / 2557877 / 401 /.986
746 / 2558623 / 402 /.986
666 / 2559289 / 403 /.987
652 / 2559941 / 404 /.987
661 / 2560602 / 405 /.987
683 / 2561285 / 406 /.987
580 / 2561865 / 407 /.988
649 / 2562514 / 408 /.988
617 / 2563131 / 409 /.988
652 / 2563783 / 410 /.988
554 / 2564337 / 411 /.989
601 / 2564938 / 412 /.989
576 / 2565514 / 413 /.989
544 / 2566058 / 414 /.989
589 / 2566647 / 415 /.989
544 / 2567191 / 416 /.990
572 / 2567763 / 417 /.990
498 / 2568261 / 418 /.990
535 / 2568796 / 419 /.990
548 / 2569344 / 420 /.990
522 / 2569866 / 421 /.991
502 / 2570368 / 422 /.991
464 / 2570832 / 423 /.991
493 / 2571325 / 424 /.991
469 / 2571794 / 425 /.991
431 / 2572225 / 426 /.992
430 / 2572655 / 427 /.992
417 / 2573072 / 428 /.992
412 / 2573484 / 429 /.992
423 / 2573907 / 430 /.992
434 / 2574341 / 431 /.992
381 / 2574722 / 432 /.993
390 / 2575112 / 433 /.993
362 / 2575474 / 434 /.993
390 / 2575864 / 435 /.993
366 / 2576230 / 436 /.993
352 / 2576582 / 437 /.993
377 / 2576959 / 438 /.993
337 / 2577296 / 439 /.994
331 / 2577627 / 440 /.994
332 / 2577959 / 441 /.994
351 / 2578310 / 442 /.994
317 / 2578627 / 443 /.994
306 / 2578933 / 444 /.994
339 / 2579272 / 445 /.994
312 / 2579584 / 446 /.994
298 / 2579882 / 447 /.995
306 / 2580188 / 448 /.995
258 / 2580446 / 449 /.995
271 / 2580717 / 450 /.995
248 / 2580965 / 451 /.995
269 / 2581234 / 452 /.995
242 / 2581476 / 453 /.995
265 / 2581741 / 454 /.995
260 / 2582001 / 455 /.995
256 / 2582257 / 456 /.995
271 / 2582528 / 457 /.996
203 / 2582731 / 458 /.996
233 / 2582964 / 459 /.996
214 / 2583178 / 460 /.996
196 / 2583374 / 461 /.996
220 / 2583594 / 462 /.996
221 / 2583815 / 463 /.996
215 / 2584030 / 464 /.996
212 / 2584242 / 465 /.996
198 / 2584440 / 466 /.996
191 / 2584631 / 467 /.996
171 / 2584802 / 468 /.996
180 / 2584982 / 469 /.996
167 / 2585149 / 470 /.997
182 / 2585331 / 471 /.997
176 / 2585507 / 472 /.997
162 / 2585669 / 473 /.997
140 / 2585809 / 474 /.997
167 / 2585976 / 475 /.997
190 / 2586166 / 476 /.997
177 / 2586343 / 477 /.997
170 / 2586513 / 478 /.997
168 / 2586681 / 479 /.997
148 / 2586829 / 480 /.997
121 / 2586950 / 481 /.997
155 / 2587105 / 482 /.997
144 / 2587249 / 483 /.997
121 / 2587370 / 484 /.997
151 / 2587521 / 485 /.997
134 / 2587655 / 486 /.998
140 / 2587795 / 487 /.998
133 / 2587928 / 488 /.998
133 / 2588061 / 489 /.998
124 / 2588185 / 490 /.998
136 / 2588321 / 491 /.998
114 / 2588435 / 492 /.998
130 / 2588565 / 493 /.998
113 / 2588678 / 494 /.998
89 / 2588767 / 495 /.998
122 / 2588889 / 496 /.998
113 / 2589002 / 497 /.998
118 / 2589120 / 498 /.998
104 / 2589224 / 499 /.998
86 / 2589310 / 500 /.998
101 / 2589411 / 501 /.998
94 / 2589505 / 502 /.998
104 / 2589609 / 503 /.998
95 / 2589704 / 504 /.998
81 / 2589785 / 505 /.998
94 / 2589879 / 506 /.998
102 / 2589981 / 507 /.998
82 / 2590063 / 508 /.998
79 / 2590142 / 509 /.998
92 / 2590234 / 510 /.999
83 / 2590317 / 511 /.999
88 / 2590405 / 512 /.999
74 / 2590479 / 513 /.999
87 / 2590566 / 514 /.999
75 / 2590641 / 515 /.999
82 / 2590723 / 516 /.999
78 / 2590801 / 517 /.999
59 / 2590860 / 518 /.999
77 / 2590937 / 519 /.999
72 / 2591009 / 520 /.999
54 / 2591063 / 521 /.999
69 / 2591132 / 522 /.999
61 / 2591193 / 523 /.999
60 / 2591253 / 524 /.999
68 / 2591321 / 525 /.999
61 / 2591382 / 526 /.999
55 / 2591437 / 527 /.999
57 / 2591494 / 528 /.999
43 / 2591537 / 529 /.999
52 / 2591589 / 530 /.999
51 / 2591640 / 531 /.999
50 / 2591690 / 532 /.999
48 / 2591738 / 533 /.999
43 / 2591781 / 534 /.999
51 / 2591832 / 535 /.999
44 / 2591876 / 536 /.999
50 / 2591926 / 537 /.999
46 / 2591972 / 538 /.999
41 / 2592013 / 539 /.999
37 / 2592050 / 540 /.999
40 / 2592090 / 541 /.999
52 / 2592142 / 542 /.999
41 / 2592183 / 543 /.999
38 / 2592221 / 544 /.999
31 / 2592252 / 545 /.999
42 / 2592294 / 546 /.999
36 / 2592330 / 547 /.999
29 / 2592359 / 548 /.999
39 / 2592398 / 549 /.999
44 / 2592442 / 550 /.999
36 / 2592478 / 551 /.999
29 / 2592507 / 552 /.999
38 / 2592545 / 553 /.999
34 / 2592579 / 554 /.999
24 / 2592603 / 555 /.999
31 / 2592634 / 556 /.999
29 / 2592663 / 557 /.999
33 / 2592696 / 558 /.999
22 / 2592718 / 559 /.999
26 / 2592744 / 560 /.999
30 / 2592774 / 561 /.999





Abandoning session.



Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +10420



This was a very strong 5 STR with no competition that simply failed.  Furthermore, I made a betting error when I started betting and bet 2 units instead of the 1 unit that was called for at Recovery Level 1.  Therefore, I must accept the error and drop to Level 4 in the Recovery tier (Level 3 requires 72 coups to recover).

I am currently at +8606.

Upon reflecting on this situation for awhile, I realize that I must compensate for the betting error.  I will do this by only betting 1/2 of the debt at Level 4 and then switching to Level 3 for the other half.

This way instead of 55 coups at Level 4, I will only take 36 coups and then switch to Level 3 for approximately 49 coups.

This session must also be reset.

Level 4 Recovery.  Target: +9470



Documenting progress.  Very interesting to note that full Level 4 recovery would be gained here and almost a full level 3 recovery just by betting straight through.

I am pretty sure I am cursing myself trying to dodge PLE's, where I am bringing the loss event I am trying to avoid closer to ocurring (the 5 and 6 STR failures) by not taking the coups generated.



Here, I just played straight through from the beginning.  I generated 37 spins and started betting the front runner, switching if necessary.  I disregarded all indicators except for the HS Ratio and recovered very quickly.

Level 3 Recovery.  Target: +10129



Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +10367




WOW!  I think I just discovered something powerful!  I am going to make a quick video about this.  The NSP figures are a "cumulative gapping measurement" and they may be the secret behind updrafts! :D

Hit_Prediction

The NSP rating equals a 27 step progression (to include all 27 spins) at 261; i.e. at the end of the progression, the percentage chances of the progression hitting and the cumulative gap chances of hitting are the same on that final spin.  A 27 spin gap is equal to 162 NSP points (27*6).

Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +10429



Sun Deck Recovery.  Target: +10444



Debt fully recovered.  The final hit was the number 10 waking up!



This was a very nice run where I just bet straight through and reaped great profits on top of a large recovery.  I watched the PLE's dominate HIGH while LOW went untouched for 1000 spins but eventually it hit LOW with the neighbor to my neighbor and it wasn't long before my neighbor also fell -- I know I am likely next if I don't leave...

Adandoning this session and modding software.





11,000.



A great run.  No explanation for the PLE but can't complain with 193 hits in a row without a gap!  Must abandon this session.  Currently at +10945.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +11278



Random Thought of the Day

Why is it wrong to chase short-term trends?

Because the long-term trend will take over and destroy us, more often than not.

Thank you and good day!






Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +11308



Debt fully recovered.



PLE with the neighbor and new KoH also with a PLE neighbor is bad ju-ju!




Abandoning this board.




This one went bad too. :/

Actual profit is +11620.  Modding software.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2017, 03:12:26 AM by Reyth »
 
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Reyth

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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #32 on: October 16, 2017, 03:01:41 AM »
Current Method

1) Spin 37 times and identify the KoH
1a) Spin longer if it is not yet clear
2) Bet 1/2 unit repeatedly  EXCEPT:

A) If your neighbor has had a gap of at least 11 spins since the last hit ==> Spin through until your neighbor gets a hit or has a PLE

B) If your neighbor has a PLE ==> Reset session

C) If there is a new KoH that has a neighbor with a PLE has two iterations:

<*>1) If the new KoH is less than 6 hits ahread ==> Spin through until the KoH status is restored or the new KoH becomes 6 hits ahead

<*>2) If the new KoH is at least 6 hits ahead ==> Reset session

D) If at the start of the progression, the NSP figure is >261 (red) ==> Bet 1 full unit

E) If at the start of the progression, the STR rating is 6 (red) AND there is no number that is 20 STR or above in the selection ==> Bet 1 full unit

Recovery is as in the Overview, in its section. 

Always bet the top performer according to the rules.  I do not switch selections in mid-progression, it is too powerful to try and second guess things and the rules will keep us from betting in questionable circumstances.

If there is a tie in the HS Ratio (before starting the progression), choose the selection with the highest NSP figure.





WELP!



No explanation for the PLE; 3 streets all gapped simultaneously.  Will stay in this session and play DS 19-24.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +11614



Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +11697



The creeping crud finally reached our neighbor and all hope for humanity is now lost!  Its literally like a zombie apocalypse!




Sun Deck Recovery.  Target: +11724



Debt fully recovered and humanity is saved!




This was a KoH takeover where I watched DS' 19-24 & 22-27 creep up and maintain a close distance for some time. Then the bottom half of the board just all got the short-term flow and it was like the top half was just abandoned.

I will stay with this session and bet DS 22-27.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +11764



This board is overrun by the zombie hoard, time to get out of Dodge!




Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +11847



Debt fully recovered.  Accidentally bet 2 units on the last bet instead of 1.



What are the reasons that selections hit?

1) Bias (KoH, long-term streak, fastest group of numbers)
2) Mini-Bias (QoH, second fastest group of numbers)
3) Gap Correction (PLE)
4) Hot Streak (short-term, current)
5) Cold Streak (short-term, correction)
6) Statistical Maintenance (general balance)

[ongoing...]



.
.


Check this out!  The zero is the hottest number in the game!  Hotter than all my selections but how am I doing?



Smokin' hot! +482 BU and counting, 130 less spins than expectation for the number of coups taken and 111 more coups than expected without a gap of 27 spins!  Total board dominance with our selection & neighbors.

I am literally IGNORING numbers 0, 2, 7, 16 & 20 (lucky number 20 lol) and IT DOESN'T MATTER! :D

All I needed was 3 red hot numbers and the rest mildy hot or mildly cold to DOMINATE the board.



The LotT takes care of the number distribution FOR ME, I just follow its lead. :D



Nice profitable run.  DS 31-36 stole very many of my hits.  I am going to try an experiment and stay in this session because the HS Ratio is so highly above the rest of the board and the PLE ratio is quite positive, being the highest rated of all selections, including those that haven't had a PLE yet (if they were to have a PLE).

Let's see if we can extend this run even farther...

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +12323



Well that experiment failed badly.



DS 1-6 was a competing selection, just recently having a BSE and we can see here how it stole the majority of the last 10 hits despite my selection being the long-term favorite and having very favorable gapping.

Well, such is roulette which can bring such rare sequences at any time.

Resetting session as now the PLE ratio is inferior to slower selections.

Level 3 Recovery.  Target: +11552



Resetting this corrupted session.



Wouldn't wanna be the guy on THAT DS! ;D 

That's a PLE and FOUR BSE's in a row! O_o



Everything was going well until during this final progression 3 PLE's occured within about 5-10 spins of each other and I never got my hit, despite at least decent statistics.

Currently at +8451.  Delicate work ahead.

Level 4 Recovery.  Target: +9792



Abandoning this session.



Starting new session.



Session reset.

Level 3 Recovery.  Target: +11510



Abandoning session.



I pushed this as far as I can.  Things are starting to get a bit hairy...  DS 1-6  looks bit better (203 NSP & neighbor 229)  and both 25-30 & 28-33 are bubbling under.  This session suffers from a depressed HS Ratio where simple short-term streaks can now change the KoH.

45 coups to hit the target.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +12255




Casino closed my session.




Because the statistics were very favorable, I pushed this one hard.

Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +12412



Before it tanked my selection was on fire and so I just pushed through to full recovery.

Abandoning this corrupted session.



Wow I never saw a board completely corrupt this quickly.






Letting this one go.




Meh.



Watched 1-6 & 25-30 creep up and the top half of the board gapping.  Then they both heated up and stole all my hits.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +12629



Abandoning this session.



Logic Dump

Predicting PLE's -- Consisting of the internal state of the selection (STR/HS) and the external state of the board.  Monitoring these things through tests should reveal helpful statistics.

1) We know at what NSP hits occur but at what NSP do PLE's occur?

Create a PLE Meter that predicts the likelihood of a PLE.  This will combine the overall NSP percentages of the KoH and the rest of the board.





Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +12713



Extremely favorable statistics and so I pushed on through.  Only lowering to 1 unit because I have completely recovered.




.


I had weaker statistics than I liked but took the risk and simply never got a hit.  Currently at +12608.

Level 2 Recovery.  Target: +12941



Level 1 Recovery.  Target: +13030



Debt fully recovered.



Abandoning this session, modding software.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2017, 07:59:28 PM by Reyth »
 
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Jake007

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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #33 on: October 17, 2017, 08:10:46 AM »
This is absolutely incredible! Its too bad it is 1am here and my eyes and brain can no longer absorb all of this information :) Congrats though... this is awesome work you are doing.

I believe this could be adapted to others like playing corners instead of DS... possibly quicker growth? Anyhow, this is similar to how I play my main system using a hot corner, except without computers or calculations. Ive yet to fail over the long term, Im way up, and if I do lose my B/R Im still well up. Hopefully when I get to reread your work it will make far more sense and I can adapt it to the way I play or... just starting playing DS from now on :)

Thank you Reyth for all of your hard work. All of your youtube videos too.
 
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Reyth

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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2017, 03:05:22 PM »
Ya I usually trash a system within days.  I've been playing this one for almost 2 months.  There is ALOT of stumbling around from beginning to end but one thing has remained consistent: the HS Ratio.  It is the very key to success.  It gives me the following invaluable advantages:

1) The discipline not to chase short-term hot numbers
2) The knowledge of exactly when to switch selections

It works with every possible bet selection, even DZ & EC.  I have been trying to think of some way to increase the earning power; I will be working on such things once I hit 13300 BU.





I have done it.  I have finally achieved 5 full recovery levels in profit.

I am now declaring this system to be a winning system.

There are so many things I want to do, now that I know the system works but first I will tally and organize all the performance statistics.


Total non-PLE coups: 4434 (13,300/3 as an estimate)
Total PLE's: 28

20 of these PLE's were recovered uncontested
5 of them had 1 PLE during the recovery
3 of them had 2 PLE's during recovery

Level 4 was seen twice & Level 5 in the Recovery Tier was not seen.

Largest drawdown: -4205 BU
Total debt drawdown: -23922 BU
Total recovery coups: 1682
Total coups taken: 6116
Total betting events: 37718 (6116*6.167 as an estimate)
Coups Vs. PLE's: 6116 vs. 34; 99.444%

Its amazing to see I lost almost twice as much as I won!  This is because of the use of a progression and the overall profit shows its effective implementation; another indication of this is the smaller amount of total PLE coups compared to non-PLE coups, despite almost twice the BU's.

Now I will begin the enjoyable task of pure statistical research with the goal of improving the system, with the initial focus on predicting and avoiding PLE's.  There is also a goal to improve earning power, if possible.



If we only bet on our selection if at least one the following conditions are true:

A) It is the uncontested short-term streak leader
B) It has a greater cumulative gap than most of the other selections
C) It has a STR of 6
D) It has a NSP of 262 or greater
E) The neighbors are less than 11 steps in the progression*
*This is only a negative precept, this condition must always be true or no bets may be placed

Then PLE's will only occur when our short-term streaks end during our progression.

Of course the cause of a short-term streak ending is the sleeping of the numbers in our selection but what is the cause of that?

The cause is that other selections have a short-term streak.

So the key to avoiding PLE's on our selection is to predict:

A) When the short-term streak on our selection is going to end/slow down
B) When the short-term streak on other selections is going to start

This brings me back to the Forecasting mod that I started working on.  This will indicate to us the baseline schedule for the performance of our selection and we should be able to see when other selections are stronger throughout the forecast.

I must implement this mod.  Implemented.



Hit Frequency Cycle


Every bet selection goes through these cycles.  A long-term hot selection will cycle through more quickly than other selections.

The keys to success are accurately indentifying "A", betting on the selection & accurately identifying "B" where we cease betting.

If we are between A & B, the question we always need to ask is, "Is our short-term hot streak about to end?", which we ask before beginning to bet and if we are between B & A its, "Is a short-term hot streak about to begin?", which we ask on every spin.

With proper implentation of a system using this criteria, PLE's can be used as a source of profit; i.e. larger gaps will also be used as a betting signal and when the peak signs of a hot streak is no longer present, we cease to bet.

Hit_Prediction_2



This is how I used to play.  We have a KoH in DS 13-18, it has 5 active numbers within the last 27 spins, totaling 14 hits in row -- thats a VERY hot streak!  Nothing on the board comes close, with the closest being DS 4-9, having 4 active numbers that total 7 hits in a row. 

I would simply bet DS 13-18 without question.  However, this is how I play now:



The pink 5 in the Forecast screen, is the horizontal line which represents DS 13-18.  DS 4-9 is horizontally represented in the row entitled "2".  This is a forecast of when the numbers drop off.  Clearly, DS 4-9 has a more powerful streak, as does DS 1-6.

More importantly though, my selection drops off completely in only 12 spins.  So here, with a more complete picture, I will choose not to bet and wait to see more spins.

In other words, I would rather bet:

444444444444444443333332 2/1 2/1 2/1 = 80 (DS 7 -12)

in my progression (where each value represents the quantity of active numbers) than:

555544444432222211111111111 = 68 (DS 13-18)

Furthemore, notice the red numbers down right side of the Forecast screen?  That is the entire board gapping more than my selection (this is the reason streaks end); in order to beat this level of competition consistently, I need a STRONG streak.  Any sign of weakness and its best not to bet.

So I am operating on the assumption that our selection has cycled through to the "B" point in the Hit Frequency Cycle.  Could I be wrong and miss out on hits?  Yes, but I would much rather bet on a fresher streak that provides the most active numbers during each bet.



Random Notes

There are two betting perspectives:

A) My selection versus the board (hot streak) -- getting hits despite the whole board gapping
B) The board versus my selection (cold streak) -- getting hits despite the whole board getting hits

The key is knowing when to switch between the two.

Hot streaks are when multiple numbers (STR Rating) are working synergistically (SQ Rating) to provide a better hit rate (HS Ratio) than expectation.

Idea for a new status indicator:

Hit Perentage Indicator

The question is how to make it work.  I have a series of 11 numbers, each of them are a statistical chance of a selection hitting on the next spin.  All of them together add up to more than 100% and so I figure that if I can "pro-rate" them somehow, I can create a percentage...

122 = 22.40125 = 3.18% ===> 10
101 = 13.11828 = 1.86% ===> 11
169 = 47.08872 = 6.68% ===> 8
272 = 86.0783 = 12.20% ===> 5
274 = 86.51707 = 12.27% ===> 4
173 = 49.18493 = 6.97% ===> 7
143 = 33.17781 = 4.70% ===> 9
345 = 95.96862 = 13.60% ===> 3
401 = 98.60735 = 13.98% ===> 1
359 = 96.87852 = 13.73% ===> 2
236 = 76.35414 = 10.82% ===> 6



Synergy Theorem

Groups of hot numbers that are all currently hitting above expectation are more likely to produce a subsequent hit that is also above expectation, in proportion to the size of the group and the proximity of their individual hits.

Cumulative Disparity Theorem

Groups of hot numbers are more likely to produce a hit that is above expectation in dynamic proportion to their current cumulative gap since each number hit.



Great potential idea to increase the earning power:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1108.msg15568#msg15568



Cumulative_Gap_Trigger



It continued for a few more hits before number 18 finally hit. :)

CGT_2



Currently established four betting triggers:

1) Synergy Streak -- 4 or more numbers hitting in close proximity
2) Disparity Streak -- Cumulative gapping in the selection creating favorable statistics
3) Board Disparity -- Greater cumulative gapping than at least 24 numbers
4) Statistical Gap -- A significant gap prior to any bets being placed

The first trigger bets on the postive streaks that occur but is the most dangerous; the PLE's, when they occur, take place on this trigger.  I raise 1/2 unit when 6 numbers have hit rapidly.

The other 3 triggers take advantage of favorable statistics as the selection slows down.

I raise 1/2 unit on the second trigger.

Some PLE's have occurred on the third trigger but so far, none when at least 24 numbers have less cumulative gapping.

No PLE's have yet occurred on the fourth trigger.  This trigger works extremely well for dodging PLE's and instead of taking a loss, turning a profit!  I am considering raising with this trigger as the static odds are 1:1000 to miss.

I also raise 1/2 unit when more than one trigger coincides; i.e. 3&4, 2&3, 2&4



The goal is to play WITH variance, not against it.  It has a certain degree of predictability overall and we can certainly know its effects, AFTER each spin.

Maybe a key is to track individual number histories in a graphical way.  After all, its individual numbers that go hot and cold that create the variance.

Its the Return FrequencyTM that holds the key to the onset of postive variance and its the Exit FrequencyTM (R) that measures the end of streaks!!!

I have in mind a simulation whereby I track the STR rating on a normal DS and count the number of gaps for each STR rating 1-6. 

I need to find the formula that generates the total number of spins that the STR rating being tracked will persist.  This is a tangled difficulty and I need to think about this to determine exactly what I want to track and why...

The Synergy Theorem states that given a certain sequence length that is shorter than expectation, a hot streak can be measured in its strength by how many spins before it ceases to be a streak (without a hit) and that the longer it would take for it not to be a streak, the stronger the streak is (using the given sequence length).

I am currently holding at least 4 numbers hitting within 27 spins as a bettable hot streak if the streak would continue for at least 15 spins.  The question is, what is the best way to test this assumption while allowing for different results with other configurations?

Output

STR:::::Streak Length:::::STRQ::::::::::NSP::::::::# of Gaps:::::# of Hits
[1-6]:::::::::::[1-27]:::::::::::::::::::[1-???]::::::[5-874]:::::::::[16M]:::::::::::::::::[16M]

With this being applied across the board in 4 categories, we should clearly see the difference in performance of the various streaks.  Once the data is generated, I can chart the results from various perspectives.

I need to run 16M tests on each of the 6 STR figures in order to properly quantify each of the streaks.

I can finally generate data on hot streaks!



A new statistical test:

Percentage of the Board NSP State

This will track the number of hits for each NSP percentage of the selection vs. the total from the rest of the board.

The reason for this test is to make the NSP statistics more informed than just the static percentages.  Right now the NSP percentage chances to hit are based on the statistics from 16M spins without taking into account the status of the rest of the board at the time of the coup.

The percentage rate output will be "board informed" which should substantially improve our statistical accuracy, providing more triggers, that are more "situationally accurate".



BOMB SHELTER ALERT!  INCOMING MESSAGE FROM TURBO GENIUS!


Quote from: Turbo Genius
Run 1,000 spins and note the top 15 hottest numbers.
Run another 1,000 and re-check.
A few will have dropped off of the list right ? Of course - but.... some of them will remain and continue
to stay hot.

Another 1,000 spins ? More drop off, some stay.

Another 1,000 spins ?
Now someone can say - "what good is that, you don't know which ones are going to do what - it's random !!!" but they aren't thinking really.
We can use progressions - which make up for the fact that we have no idea with 100% accuracy which ones will do which.
No one can predict that kind of info, and we don't have to. We're not playing ALL of the numbers on the table.
Cold number staying cold - we don't lose on them. Hot numbers going cold - we don't lose on them.
Hot numbers staying hot - we don't win or lose on them - and numbers becoming hot ? We make a killing with the progression in place that covers any loss from not being 100% accurate with the other categories.

The anti-system people are first to jump in and say that it's mumbo-jumbo and some "mystery" that no one can figure out - it's up to you to agree with them or not.
They won't deny though that the only way to win is to play numbers that show above expected (which are hot numbers) and to NOT play numbers that aren't showing up (common sense).
They can throw rocks at the idea that a system and progression based on repeaters is nonsense - but at the same time they surely have to understand that it makes complete sense, and that the road to always winning is down that road.''  TurboGenius





Think of a butterfly slowly flapping its wings.


Individual selections go through periods of intense speed, relative speed & slowdown -- in no particular order.



Think of a racecar, slowing down for curves and speeding up on straight-aways.

The Butterfly tells us WHAT to bet on and the Racecar tells us WHEN to bet.



I spin at least 37 times before betting and usually wait a bit longer beyond that.  The reason is because I must differentiate between short-term trends and the long-term trend.

Sometimes it can take up to around 300 spins for this to finally become clear.



What is the best way to measure the Return Frequency and Exit Frequency of individual numbers?

Return Frequency -- Hot streak measurement; how long a hot streak lasts
Exit Frequency -- Cold streak measurement; how long a cold streak lasts

What is the definition of a hot streak and a cold streak?

A hot streak is when a number hits within 27 spins and is measured by the SQ (Streak Quality) rating.

A cold streak is when a number doesn't hit within 27 spins as is measured by the NSP (number of spins since the last hit) rating.

The SQ rating shows the number of times in a row that a number has hit within 27 spins but the NSP rating only shows the number of spins since the last hit -- I can see now that they really are reverse sides of the same coin and thus can be measured as one number that is either positive or negative!

The following NSP figures for example:

17 40 112 6 39 52

would instead be:

2 -1 -4 3 -1 -1

This shows a selection with high disparity that has hit 5 times in a row above expectation but has missed 7 times in a row below expectation (a hot streak and cold streak at the same time)!

This is a selection that is statistically more likely to hit above expectation.

The questions we need to always ask are:

1) How likely is it that the hot streak (2 & 3) will continue (Return)?
2) How likely is it that the cold streak (-1, -4, -1, -1) will end (Exit)?

Without a doubt, it is the cold streak that makes this enitre selection more likely to Return.

If I only knew what would make individual numbers more likely to Return...

The only way to figure this out is to track individual numbers in their Return/Exit Frequency (REF).

It should also be noted here that the same numbers referenced above have been hitting above expectation (37 spins) over the last 208 spins (HS Ratio):

+88 +14 +14 +125 +51 +88

The entire selection has a HS Ratio of +63.

Interesting...  Totaled we have 380 and divided by 6 we get 63.34 (the HS Ratio is always rounded down).

112 spins later (of course I bet every spin and went up about 150 BU) we eventually encounter:

2 -2 1 2 1 1

and

+161 +50 -61 +87 +50 +13

which totals at 300 and yes, the selection HS Ratio is 50. 

Funny, I didn't know the HS Ratio is the average of the individual HS Ratios of the numbers in the selection (I certainly don't calculate it that way intentionally), LOL.



Ok!  The PERFECT statistical test!

Track the the REF Rating FROM GAP TO GAP and study the sequences to determine how they line up with a TOTAL GAP (PLE) to try and learn when it is safest to bet.

So there are 6 numbers to track, each with their own history...

1) Track the HS Ratio for all DS
2) Analyze the DS with the highest HS Ratio
2a) Track the REF Ratings on the 6 numbers until the first gap is encountered
2b) Output the full REF Rating sequence for analysis
3) Repeat

The goal is to create criteria that eliminate the most number of sequences from the output (they would be skipped).  The lower the number of sequences output, the stronger our criteria.



Documenting a new betting method. 

With every bet we can choose to minimize (1/2 unit) or raise (2 chips [1 full unit], 3 chips [1.5 units] or even more [confidence keeps climbing with each coup]:

Sometimes our confidence is blocked by 1 particular event occurring and if it occurs EARLY in the progression, from each bet forward we can bet the raised amount we would have bet at our "unblocked" confidence level.

This can really help our profits because the first few bets were at the minimum amount and then we raise which increases the profit ABOVE what the raise would have earned from the beginning!

I guess I will call this a Delay Raise.

Examples

1) We receive a Board Disparity trigger but our NSP figure is relatively low (below a Cumulative Gap trigger) and the selection(s) with a higher NSP causes some doubt about the bet because it/they could run away with the hits and so we only bet 1/2 unit.  On our 3rd bet the selections with the higher NSP get a hit and our selection becomes the highest NSP and so we raise to a full unit and treat the bet as if we had started with a full unit.



Test_Video_100_BU[1]
Test_Video_100_BU[2]
Test_Video_100_BU[3]
Test_Video_100_BU[4] (part 1)
Test_Video_100_BU[4] (part 2)
Test_Video_100_BU[4] (part 3)

Sorry I paused the last section of the recovery and forgot to resume it! >.<

Video_100_BU[1]
« Last Edit: December 03, 2017, 04:38:40 AM by Reyth »
 
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vitorwally

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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #35 on: October 23, 2017, 10:32:04 PM »
Amazing work Reyth. You surely don't deserve those hiccoughs at your video.  ;D
I need to be on a sharper mode tomorrow when I rewatch your video in order to get this more straight in my mind.
Keep it up.
 
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Reyth

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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #36 on: October 23, 2017, 11:45:32 PM »
Thanks! You might want to read the System Overview here:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1767.msg25265#msg25265

It covers the basic concepts of the system.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2017, 04:34:10 AM by Reyth »
 
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cedola

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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #37 on: November 06, 2017, 05:06:08 AM »
hi friends thanks for sharing your knowledge
 
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Reyth

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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #38 on: November 06, 2017, 05:14:24 AM »
Welcome to the forum and thanks for posting! :D
 

McCoy

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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #39 on: November 06, 2017, 04:09:57 PM »
You've done a lot of work here Reyth. So is this *it* --- a winning roulette system? Any chance of getting the bankroll smaller?  :)
 

Reyth

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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #40 on: November 06, 2017, 06:56:58 PM »
It actually IS smaller and as of now, options apply:

1    443      443
2   1772   2215   <=== BARE MINIMUM (high risk)
3   2658   4873   <=== RELATIVELY SAFE (med risk)
4   3544   8417   <=== VERY SAFE (low risk)
5   4430   12847   <=== EXTREMELY SAFE (minimal to no risk)

So far, in normal play I haven't drawn down lower than 4205 units.  I have refined the triggers and the result so far is that (experiencing) PLE's is now much rarer.  I am over 18,000 BU in testing profits and probably around 50,000 betting events.

Btw, this is a RNG system designed to beat RNG and so the way it is structured now, its only good for online RNG play; you will turn into a skeleton playing a live wheel!


There is ALOT of potential to change the system to lower the bankroll but I haven't  figured out how to do that yet. :)

If I tried this with a Dozen, it would be:

334      334
1336   1670
1670   3340
2004   5344
2338   7682

But the earnings per coup would be halved.

An EC would be:

255      255
1020   1275
1275   2550
1530   4080
1785   5865

and would be a simple 8-step Martingale.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2017, 04:42:54 AM by Reyth »
 
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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #41 on: December 12, 2017, 11:44:31 AM »
Reyth, I am having a great deal of difficulty understanding the logic of this system.
I watched various of the videos, and read the scripts, but cannot understand why you play overlapping six-lines, which you call DS.
I realize that you don't play B&M, but I cannot understand how this could possibly work.
Are you covering the whole table (bar zero)?
And you infer that covering fewer numbers results in higher losses,
I played at a B&M yesterday for about an hour anf a half, four chips straight up on three cons. numbers (wheel sequence, not felt)
113 results, total outlay 452, return 756, profit 304 units, real currency units.
I started with 50 currency units, and, if that fell, I called the session closed.
Playing EC's and six-lines and dozens is outside my terms of reference.
 
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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #42 on: December 12, 2017, 01:24:50 PM »
Congratulations on your success! :D

This system works because it is based on a combination of the following:

1) Bias in RNG output
2) Statistics & Probability relating to a Double Street (DS)
2a) Static hit chances
2b) Cumulative gapping effects
3) Advantageous recovery techniques
3a) Dynamic unit sizing

The DS's overlap but yet are still unique selections with their own statistical features which will be overlooked if all 11 DS's are not tracked; its the same with corners, streets & splits.

I haven't yet evolved this system to straight up bets.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 10:45:03 PM by Reyth »
 
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edgefounder

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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #43 on: December 13, 2017, 04:09:00 AM »
Hi,

I must say you have done a great job. This is how great systems evolve. I would love to see the straight number adjustment work out since this probably will make it usable in B&M casino's.

I would like to see like a wave(visualisation) of straight numbers and see on average how long it takes for numbers to fall twice since there are nice ways to make nice profits with way smaller bankroll sizes.

Nice one! Well done.
 

Reyth

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Re: The Bomb Shelter
« Reply #44 on: December 13, 2017, 04:25:23 AM »
Thanks EF!

Something needs to be done because even though it works, it is quite unwieldy.  Not sure which way I should go from here. :)