Author Topic: Can someone send me the average?  (Read 3002 times)

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edgefounder

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2017, 10:24:05 AM »
True but since we are playing a sequence here these odds don't apply if you ask me. Since playing red ten times in a row is also not 48.7% chance.
 
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Bayes

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #16 on: February 04, 2017, 10:55:15 AM »
Quote
playing red ten times in a row is also not 48.7% chance

Not sure what you mean by this. If you're asking for the average number of wins when betting red over 10 spins, then yes, the average is 0.487 x 10 = 4.87.

Maybe you mean what is the chance of getting exactly 5 reds in 10 spins? In which case the answer is a little under 25%, but that doesn't contradict the above average number of hits in 10 spins.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2017, 11:00:33 AM by Bayes »
 

Reyth

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #17 on: February 04, 2017, 02:41:03 PM »
I still want to run it with the sleepers in place to see if there is any difference.
 

edgefounder

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #18 on: February 04, 2017, 03:43:58 PM »
Me too. I want to see on a large scale that any time you have 17 sleepers in 37 spins how many sleepers you'll hit in the next 9 spins. Average numbers just don't lie. If you ask me.

In my business I can predict how much revenue i'll make when I have 50 new clients in a year simply because I know the average life time value of a client.

Hope we have found something interesting here. :)
 
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scepticus

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #19 on: February 04, 2017, 04:49:11 PM »
Hi,

17 sleepers in 37 spins happens in about 3.43% of the times which makes it playable. One out of 30 runs.

Hope this helps.

Edgefounder

Have you found this to be true Edge, or is it  an assumption ? If true then Reyth didn't find it to be so - so far anyway.
It is generally accepted in this forum that in about a third of any 37 spins around 12 /13 are sleepers  so I think you should concentrate your effort on 12 and not 17.
Incidentally, why choose 17 ?   
 

edgefounder

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #20 on: February 04, 2017, 05:55:11 PM »
Because I will be betting the next 9 spins in which on average (46 spins) will have 26.5 uniques.

Meaning if I have 20 uniques I'll be hitting 6.5 sleepers in the next 9 spins if the computer math works out.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #21 on: February 04, 2017, 06:29:17 PM »
Ok here is the code so I get off my duffer and get this working:

Code: [Select]
5 DIM sh(37), tl(37), bn(9)
7 FOR i = 1 TO 37: sh(i) = -1: NEXT i
9 FOR i = 1 TO 9: bn(i) = -1: NEXT i
10 RANDOMIZE TIMER
20 r = INT(RND * 37): IF sf = 1 THEN 170 'process 9 betting spins

30 ef = 0: FOR i = 1 TO 37: IF ef = 1 THEN 60
 40 IF sh(i) = -1 THEN 60
 50 sh(i) = r: ef = 1
60 NEXT i

70 IF sh(37) = -1 THEN 20

80 'spin history is full
90 'count uniques
100 FOR i = 1 TO 37
110 tl(sh(i)) = tl(sh(i)) + 1: NEXT i

120 FOR i = 1 TO 37
 130 IF tl(i) = 0 THEN sc = sc + 1: GOSUB 1000
140 NEXT i
145 FOR i = 1 TO 37: tl(i) = 0: NEXT i
150 IF sc = 17 THEN sf = 1: END
160 sc = 0: GOTO 20

170 'process 9 betting spins
180 bc = bc + 1: FOR i = 1 TO 9
 190 IF bn(i) = r THEN hc = hc + 1
200 NEXT i
210 IF bc = 9 THEN ac = hc: GOSUB 3000: bc = 0: hc = 0: sf = 0: GOSUB 2000: GOTO 20

1000 bf = 0: FOR j = 1 TO 9: IF bf = 1 THEN 1020
 1010 IF bn(j) = -1 THEN bn(j) = i: bf = 1
1020 NEXT j: RETURN

2000 FOR i = 1 TO 37: sh(i) = -1: tl(i) = -1: NEXT i
2010 FOR i = 1 TO 9: bn(i) = -1: NEXT i: RETURN

3000 at = at + 1: LOCATE 1, 1
3010 PRINT "Attempts:"; at
3020 PRINT "Average Hits:"; ac: RETURN

Ha!  First error found, line 40 should read:

40 IF sh(i) <> -1 THEN 60 

The way I had it was preventing the spin history from being recorded.

Still not working correctly yet though...

Found another error regarding the recording of individual number performance which was preventing 0 from being recorded and attempting to track a non-existent number "37".
« Last Edit: February 04, 2017, 06:36:52 PM by Reyth »
 
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edgefounder

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #22 on: February 04, 2017, 06:53:36 PM »
Oeeppps. To complicated for me. Having a hard time reading normal text lol. Nope, just kidding. I just can't help you with this one.
 
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scepticus

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #23 on: February 04, 2017, 07:25:35 PM »
Oeeppps. To complicated for me. Having a hard time reading normal text lol. Nope, just kidding. I just can't help you with this one.

In Real Time waiting for  17 sleepers in any 37 spins  may find that it is YOU that is the " sleeper" !
In Real Life  theory doesn't always work in practice.
Good Luck with this though . Let us know how it pans out.
 

scepticus

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #24 on: February 04, 2017, 10:50:42 PM »
Edgefounder
Some of us in the forum have tried various ideas over the years -  including sleepers.
I have just posted an old one of mine in my site "ferguslees roulette ideas ".
You may - or may not - find it interesting.
I'll post it in  this forum at a later date.
 
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Herby

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #25 on: February 05, 2017, 10:29:47 AM »

I would like to know if you have 20 uniques (17 sleepers) in last 37 spins and you play those 17 numbers and you play for 9 spins you would on average have 6.5 wins on 9 spins since on 46 spins you have on average 26.5 uniques and so you'll be hitting 6.5 of the next 9 spins.

Hi edgefounder,
my first post here, untill now I was just reading here
English is not my first language, so I hope to be understandable.

1.000.000 Cycles (Length = 46 spins)
20 uniques in first 37 spins: 36152 times

{{{20, 20}, 149}, {{20, 21}, 1310}, {{20, 22}, 5042},
{{20, 23}, 9529}, {{20, 24}, 10264}, {{20, 25}, 6710},
{{20, 26}, 2539}, {{20, 27}, 547}, {{20, 28}, 58}, {{20, 29}, 4}}

20: Uniques in 46 spins

149: number of outcomes

Average uniques in 46 spins for exacly 20 uniques in first 37 spins: 23.7

Greets
« Last Edit: February 05, 2017, 02:18:28 PM by Herby »
 
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Herby

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #26 on: February 05, 2017, 10:46:11 AM »
All outcomes:

{{{15, 17}, 1}, {{15, 20}, 2}, {{15, 22}, 2}, {{16, 18}, 7}, {{16, 19}, 7}, {{16, 20}, 17},
{{16, 21}, 18}, {{16, 22}, 14}, {{16, 23}, 4}, {{16, 24}, 1},
{{17, 17}, 1}, {{17, 18}, 9}, {{17, 19}, 35}, {{17, 20}, 124}, {{17, 21}, 163},
{{17, 22}, 153}, {{17, 23}, 68}, {{17, 24}, 20}, {{17, 25}, 6},
{{18, 18}, 3}, {{18, 19}, 60}, {{18, 20}, 250}, {{18, 21}, 619}, {{18, 22}, 892},
{{18, 23}, 735}, {{18, 24}, 359}, {{18, 25}, 108}, {{18, 26},8},
{{19, 19}, 30}, {{19, 20}, 313}, {{19, 21}, 1295}, {{19, 22}, 2849}, {{19, 23}, 3438},
{{19, 24}, 2554}, {{19, 25}, 1070}, {{19, 26}, 262}, {{19, 27}, 36}, {{19, 28}, 1},
{{20, 20}, 149}, {{20, 21}, 1310}, {{20, 22}, 5042}, {{20, 23}, 9529}, {{20, 24}, 10264},
{{20, 25}, 6710}, {{20, 26}, 2539}, {{20, 27}, 547}, {{20, 28}, 58}, {{20, 29}, 4},
{{21, 21}, 505}, {{21, 22}, 4348}, {{21, 23}, 14153}, {{21, 24}, 23950}, {{21, 25}, 22818}, {{21, 26}, 12863}, {{21, 27}, 4355}, {{21, 28}, 770}, {{21, 29}, 62}, {{21, 30}, 3},
{{22, 22},1401}, {{22, 23}, 10253}, {{22, 24}, 29953}, {{22, 25}, 44432}, {{22, 26}, 37679}, {{22, 27}, 18574}, {{22, 28}, 5539}, {{22, 29}, 909}, {{22, 30}, 75},
{{23, 23}, 2807}, {{23, 24}, 17950}, {{23, 25}, 46327}, {{23, 26}, 60899}, {{23, 27}, 45523}, {{23, 28}, 19570}, {{23, 29}, 4842}, {{23, 30}, 634}, {{23, 31}, 43}, {{23, 32}, 1},
{{24, 24},4179}, {{24, 25}, 23818}, {{24, 26}, 54583}, {{24, 27}, 62957}, {{24, 28}, 40418}, {{24, 29}, 14897}, {{24, 30}, 3141}, {{24, 31}, 364}, {{24, 32}, 28},
{{25, 25}, 4603}, {{25, 26}, 23800}, {{25, 27}, 47347}, {{25, 28}, 47273}, {{25, 29}, 26504}, {{25, 30}, 8337}, {{25, 31}, 1524}, {{25, 32}, 144}, {{25, 33}, 5},
{{26, 26}, 3913}, {{26, 27},17527}, {{26, 28}, 30082}, {{26, 29}, 26030}, {{26, 30}, 12470}, {{26, 31}, 3301}, {{26, 32}, 514}, {{26, 33}, 32}, {{26, 34}, 1},
{{27, 27}, 2437}, {{27, 28}, 9416}, {{27, 29}, 13905}, {{27, 30}, 10474}, {{27, 31}, 4179}, {{27, 32}, 883}, {{27, 33}, 93}, {{27, 34}, 8},
{{28, 28}, 1108}, {{28, 29}, 3724}, {{28, 30}, 4804}, {{28, 31}, 3050}, {{28, 32}, 966},
{{28, 33}, 165}, {{28, 34}, 12}, {{28, 35}, 2},
{{29, 29}, 372}, {{29, 30}, 1074}, {{29, 31}, 1179}, {{29, 32}, 566}, {{29, 33}, 140},
{{29, 34}, 28}, {{29, 35}, 1},
{{30, 30}, 91}, {{30, 31}, 227}, {{30, 32}, 202}, {{30, 33}, 83}, {{30, 34}, 17},
{{31, 31}, 10}, {{31, 32}, 41}, {{31, 33}, 15}, {{31, 34}, 9}, {{31, 35}, 1}, {{32, 32}, 1},
{{32, 33}, 1}};
 

Herby

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #27 on: February 05, 2017, 10:55:17 AM »
Just for bragging and testing   8)
The Code in Mathematica:

len = 46;
Ri[len_] := Module[{ri},
  ri = RandomInteger[36, len]; {Length[Union[Take[ri, 37]]], Length[Union[ri]]}]

sbri = SortBy[Tally[Table[Ri[46], {1000000}]], First]
 
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edgefounder

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #28 on: February 05, 2017, 01:44:49 PM »

I would like to know if you have 20 uniques (17 sleepers) in last 37 spins and you play those 17 numbers and you play for 9 spins you would on average have 6.5 wins on 9 spins since on 46 spins you have on average 26.5 uniques and so you'll be hitting 6.5 of the next 9 spins.

Hi edgefounder,
my first post here, untill now I was just reading here
English is not my first language, so I hope to be understandable.

1.000.000 Cycles (Length = 46 spins)
20 uniques in first 37 spins: 36152 times

{{{20, 20}, 149}, {{20, 21}, 1310}, {{20, 22}, 5042},
{{20, 23}, 9529}, {{20, 24}, 10264}, {{20, 25}, 6710},
{{20, 26}, 2539}, {{20, 27}, 547}, {{20, 28}, 58}, {{20, 29}, 4}}

20: Uniques in 46 spins

149: number of outcomes

Mean uniques in 46 spins for exacly 20 uniques in first 37 spins: 26.5

Greets


Based on what you wrote I could not understand it but getting you to post the first time means I did something positive here at this forum although I am new right. :)

Will wait for Reyth to finalize code to see what happens.
 

Herby

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Re: Can someone send me the average?
« Reply #29 on: February 05, 2017, 02:13:08 PM »
Hi edgefounder,

Sorry, I had an error in the numbers.

Short answer to your question:

With exactly 20 Uniques in 37 Coups, after 9 more Coups you get an average of the uniques : 23.7 instead of 26.5

Sorry for that mistake.
Herby
 
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