Author Topic: Pay close attention  (Read 5502 times)

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scepticus

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2016, 03:00:20 PM »
The benefit on betting constantly the 5 same numbers is that you can easily track their performance over many spins and get a better idea on "where you are" in terms of appearances, repeats etc. If you constantly change numbers you can't track their performance.

Kav,
I disagree. It seems to me that tracking the performance of a static set of numbers puts you back into the "triggers" camp. Why do you want to track this fixed set of numbers if not to start betting on them at some point when your stats seem to indicate an "opportunity"?

As I see it, the strategy of hot numbers isn't about triggers or virtual bets, but simply betting on those numbers which are currently experiencing positive variance, and thereby giving yourself the best chance to catch any number(s) which experience a long winning run. There's a subtle but important difference in the two approaches.

Tracking is important IMO for various reasons. It is useful to compare for example your bankroll with your win ratio. Do I lose because of variance or because I messed up something else? Remember the divisor plan system? The more wins you get the lower the divisor gets (and sometimes higher your bet). It's sort of the same concept or anyway it is just an example where tracking of your performance can be taken into account.

I believe wholeheartedly in proper tracking. I use it in Kav bet and most of my systems. And If I ever release a software it would be about "my kind of tracking". Again, I want to be clear that it is another thing to know were you stand and a different thing what you do with this info. I'm not suggesting that tracking knowledge automatically gives you a practical benefit. It is all about how you use the info.

For my style, it is unthinkable to risk my money and not have a clear idea how my bet (and parts of my bet) has performed. No the bankroll fluctuation is not a good enough indicator for me. I need to know more to judge the situation I'm in.
Please, Mr. Kavouras, do not relise such softwares. Casinos are blatant about tracking their wheels and it's good as it is. Look what happen after Real was selling his book! He soon after took it out of availability,  but damage was done.... wheels changed, rrs was introduced, TSC suit updated.... ( software Haxley use).
  We do not want to create other BJ/ thorp situation, don't we?
 It becomes very interesting situation...  many hold info that can kill or change the game, up till now no one relise something strong enough to kill the game... it's better this way, l belive.
Where is your evidence that wheels changed BECAUSE of Real's book ?
Wheel technology has been evolving Before Real's book. Manufacturers have been responding to those AP who use a COMPUTER  - some of whom have been taking to Court for " cheating". I have yet to read of any AP being taken to Court who have not used a computer. #
I agree  with you that no one should divulge a method which is constantly profitable.  Killing the Golden Goose is not a good idea. 
 

scepticus

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2016, 03:03:41 PM »
In my 5 numbers Paroli system, a system I regard highly but none seems to care about (that's ok :-)) the main idea is that you pick 5 static numbers and you increase your bet when they start to become hot. And you keep on increasing if they get hotter.

The benefit on betting constantly the 5 same numbers is that you can easily track their performance over many spins and get a better idea on "where you are" in terms of appearances, repeats etc. If you constantly change numbers you can't track their performance.

Partly agree kav but would rather say that there are some numbers that you should NOT bet .
 
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mr j

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2016, 03:29:52 PM »

Hopefully not the 2 or 4 chip wins though ?


Yep, 2-4 chips betting. $25 chips (lol)

Ken
 

mr j

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2016, 03:35:07 PM »
Sputnik, I have the book and the system is really simple to explain:

Record numbers as they come in and bet those which have hit most. If there are some which have hit an equal number of times, pick the most recent. That's it.


Guys, this was my STARTING point, which means, I need to write a book (joking). As I said at RF to Tomla, if it were only that simple. My method is more "selective" (I dont know what word to use?) and through trial & error. Record the numbers that have hit the most? Well, sort of. As I said, the WHEN to drop a number and WHEN to add a number, THATS THE KEY!!

I have played at the casino 67 times and won all 67. Have tested at C. Casino 107 times, won all 107.

Granted, its not a ton but the RULES of a method is the key.

Ken

 
« Last Edit: August 21, 2016, 03:38:33 PM by mr j »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2016, 09:17:19 AM »
Ken I have no idea how you define hot numbers.In my B&M casino I see on the board 4 hotnumbers. Sometimes a hot number is also a cold number. The hotnumbers on the board are based on a 500 sample.
The expectation of each number is 13,5 . IMO the hot humbers are the 4 numbers with an occurence of more than 15.
 

Trilobite

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2016, 11:53:15 AM »

I have played at the casino 67 times and won all 67

An exceptional run that any player would be pleased with. It's no wonder you're running on high spirits.

Things can still change for the worse though, so you should be mindful of that.

Sounds like you're playing some kind of "GUT crossover variation" that is focused on repeaters within specific spin cycles.

Let's hope it keeps winning for you, but don't forget your own mantra: If it starts to tank, kick it and move on.. you still won!
« Last Edit: August 22, 2016, 11:55:29 AM by Trilobite »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #21 on: August 22, 2016, 03:14:07 PM »
The benefit on betting constantly the 5 same numbers is that you can easily track their performance over many spins and get a better idea on "where you are" in terms of appearances, repeats etc. If you constantly change numbers you can't track their performance.

Kav,
I disagree. It seems to me that tracking the performance of a static set of numbers puts you back into the "triggers" camp. Why do you want to track this fixed set of numbers if not to start betting on them at some point when your stats seem to indicate an "opportunity"?

As I see it, the strategy of hot numbers isn't about triggers or virtual bets, but simply betting on those numbers which are currently experiencing positive variance, and thereby giving yourself the best chance to catch any number(s) which experience a long winning run. There's a subtle but important difference in the two approaches.

Tracking is important IMO for various reasons. It is useful to compare for example your bankroll with your win ratio. Do I lose because of variance or because I messed up something else? Remember the divisor plan system? The more wins you get the lower the divisor gets (and sometimes higher your bet). It's sort of the same concept or anyway it is just an example where tracking of your performance can be taken into account.

I believe wholeheartedly in proper tracking. I use it in Kav bet and most of my systems. And If I ever release a software it would be about "my kind of tracking". Again, I want to be clear that it is another thing to know were you stand and a different thing what you do with this info. I'm not suggesting that tracking knowledge automatically gives you a practical benefit. It is all about how you use the info.

For my style, it is unthinkable to risk my money and not have a clear idea how my bet (and parts of my bet) has performed. No the bankroll fluctuation is not a good enough indicator for me. I need to know more to judge the situation I'm in.
Please, Mr. Kavouras, do not relise such softwares. Casinos are blatant about tracking their wheels and it's good as it is. Look what happen after Real was selling his book! He soon after took it out of availability,  but damage was done.... wheels changed, rrs was introduced, TSC suit updated.... ( software Haxley use).
  We do not want to create other BJ/ thorp situation, don't we?
 It becomes very interesting situation...  many hold info that can kill or change the game, up till now no one relise something strong enough to kill the game... it's better this way, l belive.
Where is your evidence that wheels changed BECAUSE of Real's book ?
Wheel technology has been evolving Before Real's book. Manufacturers have been responding to those AP who use a COMPUTER  - some of whom have been taking to Court for " cheating". I have yet to read of any AP being taken to Court who have not used a computer. #
I agree  with you that no one should divulge a method which is constantly profitable.  Killing the Golden Goose is not a good idea.
ln short, book speaks about dinamic nature of bias numbers as a result of some imperfections that wheel may have and adverse conditions that may be present.
 Current countermeasures procedures are designed by someone who had access to such information. They artificially change conditions in play to make life of predictive player difficult.
 Clear example would be to find a rotor speed where scatter turns unpredictable, or backspinning to reduce posible ball jumps and change current dominance of drop points.
 There is no direct evidence, but indirect ones are abundant. It's not written anywhere,  casinos wouldn't admit it, bit l know from my expiriences that sometimes there is entelegent life on other side of the table and it fights back using all resorces avaliable.
 

scepticus

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #22 on: August 22, 2016, 03:53:03 PM »
The benefit on betting constantly the 5 same numbers is that you can easily track their performance over many spins and get a better idea on "where you are" in terms of appearances, repeats etc. If you constantly change numbers you can't track their performance.

Kav,
I disagree. It seems to me that tracking the performance of a static set of numbers puts you back into the "triggers" camp. Why do you want to track this fixed set of numbers if not to start betting on them at some point when your stats seem to indicate an "opportunity"?

As I see it, the strategy of hot numbers isn't about triggers or virtual bets, but simply betting on those numbers which are currently experiencing positive variance, and thereby giving yourself the best chance to catch any number(s) which experience a long winning run. There's a subtle but important difference in the two approaches.

Tracking is important IMO for various reasons. It is useful to compare for example your bankroll with your win ratio. Do I lose because of variance or because I messed up something else? Remember the divisor plan system? The more wins you get the lower the divisor gets (and sometimes higher your bet). It's sort of the same concept or anyway it is just an example where tracking of your performance can be taken into account.

I believe wholeheartedly in proper tracking. I use it in Kav bet and most of my systems. And If I ever release a software it would be about "my kind of tracking". Again, I want to be clear that it is another thing to know were you stand and a different thing what you do with this info. I'm not suggesting that tracking knowledge automatically gives you a practical benefit. It is all about how you use the info.

For my style, it is unthinkable to risk my money and not have a clear idea how my bet (and parts of my bet) has performed. No the bankroll fluctuation is not a good enough indicator for me. I need to know more to judge the situation I'm in.
Please, Mr. Kavouras, do not relise such softwares. Casinos are blatant about tracking their wheels and it's good as it is. Look what happen after Real was selling his book! He soon after took it out of availability,  but damage was done.... wheels changed, rrs was introduced, TSC suit updated.... ( software Haxley use).
  We do not want to create other BJ/ thorp situation, don't we?
 It becomes very interesting situation...  many hold info that can kill or change the game, up till now no one relise something strong enough to kill the game... it's better this way, l belive.
Where is your evidence that wheels changed BECAUSE of Real's book ?
Wheel technology has been evolving Before Real's book. Manufacturers have been responding to those AP who use a COMPUTER  - some of whom have been taking to Court for " cheating". I have yet to read of any AP being taken to Court who have not used a computer. #
I agree  with you that no one should divulge a method which is constantly profitable.  Killing the Golden Goose is not a good idea.
ln short, book speaks about dinamic nature of bias numbers as a result of some imperfections that wheel may have and adverse conditions that may be present.
 Current countermeasures procedures are designed by someone who had access to such information. They artificially change conditions in play to make life of predictive player difficult.
 Clear example would be to find a rotor speed where scatter turns unpredictable, or backspinning to reduce posible ball jumps and change current dominance of drop points.
 There is no direct evidence, but indirect ones are abundant. It's not written anywhere,  casinos wouldn't admit it, bit l know from my expiriences that sometimes there is entelegent life on other side of the table and it fights back using all resorces avaliable.

JESUS C. !
Are you AP guys for real ?
You base your method on " Mays" and " Mights"  ? And present it here  as The Only Way ?
You admit there is no direct evidence so you cannot have the "Advantage " you claim .Furthermore, you guys don't seem to understand that an Advantage is just that - an advantage, It does not mean that you MUST win as you seem to think. It just means that you are more likely to win than lose.
Casinos do take steps to avoid loss but it is fanciful to claim that  these steps  are solely against AP who don't use computers.
May- Might -Invisibility ! You guys certainly have vivid imaginations !
« Last Edit: August 22, 2016, 03:55:28 PM by scepticus »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2016, 06:33:30 PM »
 Yes, Scepticus,  we Base our decisions on observed frequency of events , wich have high degree of a chance to be not random.
  All AP teqniques are based on hypotesys wich we form apriory or after events to take place ( past spins), we verify these hypotesis with posterior data taking using statistical methods based on probability.
  There are posible limits of variance and there are confidence intervals that we account for to create our betting strategies .
  In roulette game virtually anything can happen, l learned with time to expect worst always and to form my money management strategy to deal with any possible outcome.
    There is much more similarities between AP and gambling that you may suspect. Both aproaches may use triggers for example, need to form strategies and recerch a lot. AP is just a regular person who found out how to bend odds in his favor on the long run. On short run can happen anything.
  Even prediction itself is just an educated gess and praying that nothing gonna change from past spins wich player use as a reference. 
   There are however differences between AP and gambling. Triggers are based on physics and can be verified,  patterns do happen when they are expected ... it all makes gessing just a bit more educated and consistent,  plus possibility to explore playing opportunity optimally.
 Roulette playing will be what you want it to be, if need monetary results to pay your bills- AP is a way to go. If wanna gamble - you may use systems.
    If someday l find system wich works, l will use it myself. Why predict and work hurd if it can be done other way? Unfortunately l didn't find such a system yet.....
  ...
 Do you see, my presense on the table or betting terminal does change the game. When system players come, rarely something changes. I do realise why these changes are  happening and do take it as them fighting back due to the fact that l am predictive player. Sometimes it takes very hostil forms...
« Last Edit: August 22, 2016, 07:11:11 PM by MrPerfect. »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2016, 07:58:56 PM »
I have no idea what you all mean with hot and cold. The hot numbers of Kav are the cold numbers of Ken. Nobody has the courage to give a clear definition what is hot and what is cold.

It is very easy to compute the DTOP for a 5-numberbet.This point is very large. If you play a 5-numberbet system then you play always a short run event. Every system has in the short run positive and negative events. This is a certanity   and easy to prove with the computer. You can find different examples in my blog
 

scepticus

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #25 on: August 22, 2016, 08:21:03 PM »
I have no idea what you all mean with hot and cold. The hot numbers of Kav are the cold numbers of Ken. Nobody has the courage to give a clear definition what is hot and what is cold.

It is very easy to compute the DTOP for a 5-numberbet.This point is very large. If you play a 5-numberbet system then you play always a short run event. Every system has in the short run positive and negative events. This is a certanity   and easy to prove with the computer. You can find different examples in my blog

I have said what I consider to be a Hot number.
One that has occurred three times while I have been sitting at the table.
How can I make that "defintion" clearer ?
 

scepticus

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #26 on: August 22, 2016, 08:33:17 PM »
Yes, Scepticus,  we Base our decisions on observed frequency of events , wich have high degree of a chance to be not random.
  All AP teqniques are based on hypotesys wich we form apriory or after events to take place ( past spins), we verify these hypotesis with posterior data taking using statistical methods based on probability.
  There are posible limits of variance and there are confidence intervals that we account for to create our betting strategies .
  In roulette game virtually anything can happen, l learned with time to expect worst always and to form my money management strategy to deal with any possible outcome.
    There is much more similarities between AP and gambling that you may suspect. Both aproaches may use triggers for example, need to form strategies and recerch a lot. AP is just a regular person who found out how to bend odds in his favor on the long run. On short run can happen anything.
  Even prediction itself is just an educated gess and praying that nothing gonna change from past spins wich player use as a reference. 
   There are however differences between AP and gambling. Triggers are based on physics and can be verified,  patterns do happen when they are expected ... it all makes gessing just a bit more educated and consistent,  plus possibility to explore playing opportunity optimally.
 Roulette playing will be what you want it to be, if need monetary results to pay your bills- AP is a way to go. If wanna gamble - you may use systems.
    If someday l find system wich works, l will use it myself. Why predict and work hurd if it can be done other way? Unfortunately l didn't find such a system yet.....
  ...
 Do you see, my presense on the table or betting terminal does change the game. When system players come, rarely something changes. I do realise why these changes are  happening and do take it as them fighting back due to the fact that l am predictive player. Sometimes it takes very hostil forms...
Maths geeks don't allow method players to use "past spins" so why should they allow AP to use past spins.
 You claim that you base  your hypotheses on prior spins and so did Real.But Real has recentlysaid that  he can tell - within minutes- whether or not a wheel is biased. Then went on to say that he sometimes could tell after ONE revolution of the wheel. No consistency there ,is there ?
Your comment that your presence at the table changes the game is - to put it mildly, fanciful.
APs GAMBLE  !  Just like the rest of us. The only difference  is that we know it while you guys don't !
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #27 on: August 22, 2016, 11:18:33 PM »
 Scepticus, you are partially right. AP is gamble with advantage. It becomes investment only if people who do , know exactly what they doing.... it's not easy to upply for different reasons and has many specific skills to develop in order to be suxessfull.
  One of these skills is to be able to determine if wheel is biased and is worth our time.
  To determine if wheel is biased no need to collect numbers. What people call bias is not bias itself but rather result of bias in action.
   Bias itself is wear of the equipment or imperfections of manufacturing.  Numbers coming more then expected is just a result of bias but not bias itself. There are many kinds of biases wheel may have, they are not that difficult to spot if you know how. Determine wich numbers gonna come more then expected ( and in wich " conditions")  is not that straight forward. With expirience it become more easy to do, some fellows like Real can do it more qweak then others.
  It's only logical, don't you think? More someone practice and get expirience, more proficient he becomes....
 It's still a gess and needs to be verified with posterior data taking to high degree of confidence. 
   Some biases results are more easy to predict then others,some require longer time and bigger sample of data to confirm.
    And yes, you can use past spins as reference, it's absolutely normal practice, everyone does it in one form or other.... just make sure it's spins themselves, and not only results of such a spins
« Last Edit: August 22, 2016, 11:25:50 PM by MrPerfect. »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #28 on: August 22, 2016, 11:54:14 PM »
 I decided to continue previous post, as it may still left some qwestions not answered.
   For example, what is difference between spin resulting numbers and spins themselves? ??
   Numbers are just one parameter and do not have high statistical value. That's why one would need huge amount of them to achieve something in the field of hypotesis formation and testing.
   Spins on other hand is a procces that can be broken down for many parameters. ... such as rotor speed, type of throw, spin duration, several points into the spin ( relise, prediction or reference,  number under diamond, outcome...ets).
 When we have serie of consequtive events with multiple parameters , we can perform many types of different tests on such a sample and find correlations between 2 or more parameters present.
  If looking results ( numbers) only, is one dimension of the game, looking results of multivariable analysis gives broader picture. We get power of modeling and forcast ( prediction).
   Many of the variables do govern outcome of the spin, understanding in wich degree each of variables influence the outcome gives us possibility to analyse different situations ( dominance of specific variables) wich may be present in the game. It gives ability to adjust for a changes as you go. That's why spins with outcomes are higher importance then only outcomes.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2016, 12:05:36 AM by MrPerfect. »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Pay close attention
« Reply #29 on: August 23, 2016, 12:21:37 AM »
I have no idea what you all mean with hot and cold. The hot numbers of Kav are the cold numbers of Ken. Nobody has the courage to give a clear definition what is hot and what is cold.

It is very easy to compute the DTOP for a 5-numberbet.This point is very large. If you play a 5-numberbet system then you play always a short run event. Every system has in the short run positive and negative events. This is a certanity   and easy to prove with the computer. You can find different examples in my blog
l am not shure what can be called as hot or cold, so l can just repeat what casinos tell.
  If you look frequency of number apiarences ( how many times hit), hot numbers will be these wich perform higher then expected. Cold will be these that performed lower then expected.
    Simple example, there are 37 numbers in total,  in 370 spins each of them is expected to hit 10 times. These wich hit more then 10 times are hot, these that underperformed are cold.
   Normally are mentioned top 5 hot numbers and lowest 5 as cold....