Author Topic: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?  (Read 809 times)

MrPerfect.

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #30 on: March 20, 2017, 12:11:38 PM »
to bet on table lay out it doesnt means that u dont  take under consideration the wheel layout , and u need much less money than betting on the wheel .
table is limited in posibilities in relation to wheel. That would be super if wheel lay out would be same as table, unfortunately it is not. Life of player could be 10 times more easy....
 
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Trilobite

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #31 on: March 20, 2017, 01:01:48 PM »
Let's get some facts straight.

1. AP means advantage play/player.
2. Everyone wants to win and in order to win in the long run you must have the edge. 
3. If you find a way to get the edge and win, regardless of the game or strategy you are by definition an AP.
4.  It is foolish and an oxymoron to state that you have a winning system/strategy but that your system is not an AP method.

IMO general consensus is that AP relates to using physical science and or structural analysis calculations of the game parameters to predict an advantageous strike zone on the apparatus.

Perhaps a very lucky fellow could exhibit an edge by purely chanciful means, and thereby definition does have an advantage, but that does not fit the general consensus of what constitutes an AP.

Basically, on the one hand we have science and math and logic, and on the other we have chance and luck and faith.

I've been around long enough to know that both can be victorious and both can suffer defeat.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 01:03:43 PM by Trilobite »
 
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scepticus

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #32 on: March 20, 2017, 03:11:16 PM »
An Edge means that you have an advantage . It does NOT mean that you MUST win ONLY that you are more likely to win than lose . Real still hasn't Got It !
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #33 on: March 20, 2017, 06:12:18 PM »
AP can loose , l do often. It's just a knolidge that gives confidence , minisession lost mean nothing if your target is 500% of invested or more...
    It's all should be seen in long run. If you know you got edge, nothing stop you to buy in more to get you target.
   Edge is simply a freedom to know that you are due to win, provided you play adequete amount of spins and you do everything right. There are limits of math, you know, it's imposible to loose for long if you are right in your bet selection and money management.
  As everything,  it requires work, but what doesn't? 
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #34 on: March 21, 2017, 05:10:25 PM »
"an Edge means that you have an advantage"

Please give me a description of an advantage. My advantage is my knowledge of random sequences, my experience and my skill. My mind is also an advantage. A gambler play roulette as a donkey.
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #35 on: March 22, 2017, 07:12:37 AM »
If your advantages , like mentioned above, do in fact produce edge for you, it can be shown on the graph. Just graph both situations ( when you use it and when you bet all spins) and compare results.
   Some phisical advantages, like prediction, or wheel study is a bit more easy to represent on graph.
   As a guide of such representation, you could use example from my " sequential method" topic.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #36 on: March 22, 2017, 09:08:20 AM »
On this and other forums I never saw a graph from an AP player. The problem for the AP player is , that he always have to play on a B&M roulette. IMO I think the live roulette on internet is also not suitable for an demo by an AP player.
A stratigic player uses triggers and never play all spins. I have presented many  public demonstrations on internet playing in the real and practice mode. In Dutch we have not a good word for edge.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #37 on: March 22, 2017, 01:39:35 PM »
No need to serch much, l posted here lots of them. Bit of patience and you find them. All kind of graphs, bank graphs, chart graphs, edge graphs.. lots.
 

Real

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #38 on: March 22, 2017, 05:26:22 PM »
Dobbelsteen,

You don't have an edge.  You're merely hopping in and out of the random game.  You're basically just fooling yourself into believing you have one because you don't play for very long.  Random guessing would work just as well.  If you replace your predictions with a coin flip, you'll find that the results are the same.

 In order to get a real advantage you must increase the accuracy of your prediction beyond 1 in 36 for a specific number.  This is something that you simply can't do with your method over the long run.  A real AP uses physics and or exploits a biased wheel.

 In the case of bias, because of wear or poor wheel assembly such a wheel will hit specific numbers or sections more frequently than what probability would predict.  In the case of physics the AP is using the position of the ball and wheel in order to predict where the ball will land in order to hit more frequently.

« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 05:41:24 PM by Real »
 

Sheridan44

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #39 on: March 23, 2017, 11:37:36 PM »
I have no doubt that there are very successful AP players. But I have some questions relating more to the wheel physics part of AP, rather than so-called "dealer signatures".

It seems to me that any "substantial" brick or mortar casino would have an army of statistical geeks in their employ constantly looking for any abnormalities of wheel performance - and would immediately take action upon the discovery of such. I can imagine how frustrating it could be studying and analyzing a particular wheel for some time...finding a bias....attacking the wheel....only to find that a pit boss replaced it the night before based upon a report from their bean counter office.

Perhaps they attack less "astute" venues such as carnivals, fairs, Vegas nights at the Elks Lodge, or private "non-casino" games. There could potentially be numerous opportunities with such.

I have trouble accepting that many "state of the art" full blown casino's would be so naive as to slack on their statistical examinations....but i could be wrong.....every venue could have some differences.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2017, 12:07:16 AM by Sheridan44 »
 
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Bebediktus

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #40 on: March 24, 2017, 06:58:14 AM »
Sheridan, you think that statistical diferences is main for AP. Yes some ways of play is based on that, but that is not main. And  "army of statistical geeks" from casino side here can nothing to do. And main reason for that that casino peoples usually is very weak in that thing.
The same like you - the same they not - understand how AP wins and because of this for them is super hard. If they do something, they usually not let for AP to play, but this way they also not let to play for many natural loosers and usually they lost much more than wins.
In theese casinos where owners are more less clever - they not worry about AP till they are in normal plus. And if think that loosers can lost 1000 times more , than AP can win, really AP wins for them is nothing....
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #41 on: March 24, 2017, 08:36:59 AM »
 Sheridan @. Ones l contacted a fellow who pioneered low profile wheels creation. It was a surprise for me to know how little this guy understand of AP. Well, l contacted him more then ones...
    The thing is that ... what makes roulette beatable is out of control of both sides, be it AP or casino. In case of AP, we can simply wait, if wheel is not beatable now, tomorrow or in a month it may very well become.
    Level of stats needed to assess wheel properly is out of range for most statisticians. We are speaking about applied stats, people who can do these, normally work for big institutions like insurance companies, hedge funds, investment banks.... they earn more on the job then average good AP.
   AP, the good ones are recerchers. They are looking not for money ( altroth it helps a lot), but for a chellenge.  Do you see, many people like to be effective on what they do, some even looking for a perfection or exercise for their brains.  AP is a perfect tool for that, upper limit is a sky... if one wants self development,  roulette is a best for that.  It's more entertaining then any game that gamers play.

     
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #42 on: March 24, 2017, 08:38:34 AM »
I am waiting for the first AP player, who publish the results a full session of 100 spins. I want to see  the numbers and the sectors they bet. I think AP players use also bet selection. Not every spin should be a hit.
All the time words and words but never a report. It is very easy to publish a fake report . I believe in the fairness of our fellow participants AP players.
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #43 on: March 24, 2017, 10:10:17 AM »
 That probably will be a bit difficult. .. it's more easy to publish study results then game results. 
    The thing is, ones " model of the wheel" ( map where to bet) is created, most AP just use it without recording aditional info.... it's not easy to keep track of what to do in current situation. Normally all atention goes there instead of recording bets itself. At least l do this way.
   Probably folks who have teams will be more capable to allocate one fellow for " performance analytical study"... for these who by themselves,  it's just not practical.
 

Bayes

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #44 on: March 24, 2017, 10:19:00 AM »
It seems to me that any "substantial" brick or mortar casino would have an army of statistical geeks in their employ constantly looking for any abnormalities of wheel performance...

I used to think that too, but according to Real, casinos only take steps when a wheel isn't paying as expected, which kinda makes sense; if it ain't broke don't fix it, and statistical geeks don't come cheap. I believe some casinos run a chi-square goodness-of-fit test on data collected by the optical reader, but that's about as far as it goes.
 
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