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Poll

Does betting on the 1st DOZEN have the same PROBABILITY of NOT appearing for 37 spins, as betting on any group of 12 predetermined Numbers for 37 Spins?

Yes
3 (100%)
No
0 (0%)
I have no !&$%ing idea
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 3

Author Topic: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers  (Read 799 times)

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kav

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2017, 02:08:33 AM »
BA,
There are no better or worse bets - never said that.
However the probability to win (and the possible profit) are different.
  • One bet on 12 numbers has 12/37 =32,4% probability to win
  • Bet one number 12 times has 1-(36/37^12) = 28% probability to win
 

mr j

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2017, 02:56:48 AM »
12 in any manner....too many numbers bet!! Learn early or get killed at the casino.

Ken
 

Rinad

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2017, 03:09:58 AM »


  Kav, there are bets that are worst then others, like on american roulette you have that first street with only 5 numbers 0/00/1/2/3, that dont give you the same odds as other streets.

now I am not saying that in the "make up" of a system, like the single dz from "palesti" which I really like, that playing a dz is wrong. I am only speaking in terms of odds and probabilities, risk/rewards, ect...
to be clear, I would play a outside bet if it does something for a particular system,ect...
just want to be anderstood, I will never condemn anyone for making a bet on the roulette carpet, no matter what it is.
many systems demand bets sometime that only a player knows why he is doing it.
God bless,
 

albalaha

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2017, 03:13:10 AM »
BA,
There are no better or worse bets - never said that.
However the probability to win (and the possible profit) are different.
  • One bet on 12 numbers has 12/37 =32,4% probability to win
  • Bet one number 12 times has 1-(36/37^12) = 28% probability to win

Not so simple. If we bet a single number, we can win even 35 chips which is not possible ever with 12 numbers bet. We can not better our chances with any fixed bet. Only exception is the box bet of 0-00-1-2-3 of American roulette where it is inferior and carries higher house edge than all the other bets due to faulty payout.
 
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kav

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #19 on: March 14, 2017, 03:14:24 AM »
Rinard,
I'm referring to European roulette. There are no worse or better bets. All have the same expected value. The important thing is that you align your bets with your overall strategy and bankroll. Different strokes for different folks.

The 0/00/1/2/3 bet on the American roulette is the only well known exception. It is the only bet that has lower expected value than all the others.

alba,
You didn't read my answer carefully:
However the probability to win (and the possible profit) are different.

Now the discussion is getting absurd. Is anyone here seriously suggesting that any bet (except 0,00,1,2,3) is better than any other just by itself? Do you even know what expected value is? No bet is better than another. Now there are different strategies and different bets with different characteristics may be better suited for different strategies, but a bet by itself has no advantage over any other bet, just by itself.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 03:29:37 AM by kav »
 

Rinad

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #20 on: March 14, 2017, 03:27:16 AM »


  I think you are right, and we all anderstand the outcome of any bets. just know that sometime we can agreed and not even realize it. lol.
you have enough experience that you know enough of all odds, bets,ect... but I know a lot as well. but communication is sometime not that easy. it is all about expressing opinions right?
good discussion,
 
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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #21 on: March 14, 2017, 04:26:52 AM »
I AM enjoying this discussion so far, but I feel my original questions have not been addressed. So, I created a poll to clarify my first question. Thank you.
 

kav

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #22 on: March 14, 2017, 04:32:39 AM »
I would modify your question like this:
Does betting on the 1st DOZEN have the same PROBABILITY of NOT appearing for 37 spins, as betting on any group of 12 predetermined Numbers for 37 Spins?
It is important to clarify that the numbers are chosen before the 37 spins.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 04:38:25 AM by kav »
 
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palestis

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2017, 04:45:33 AM »
I have played the dozens for many 1000's spins, the longest sleeping dozen i ever saw was 29 spins, but that was once in a perios of 2 years.
i believe that 32 was recorded once.
12 seperate numbers are not the same as a dozen 12. o saw 12 seperate numbers sleep for 38 spins once.
Interesting. I have recorded missing dozens for years, and I found the highest to be 28 spins. I saw it several times over the years but never went beyond 28 (single 0 wheel).
And that agrees with a few test junkies that I talked to.
The moral  of the story is that if you test long enough you will begin to read roulette like an open book.
As far as 12 numbers, if you PRESELECT them they will follow the dozen routine.
If you spin 37 times chances are you will see 12 numbers sleeping quite often. (law of the thirds). But not 12 numbers selected in advance.
 
 
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palestis

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2017, 04:58:26 AM »
@tTerminator.
If you select 12 specific numbers in advance before the spinning begins, you will never see them missing for 37 spins. When you say 1st dozen, in fact you preselect 12 numbers. It is numbers 1-12.
It is the same thing as if you preselected  2,9,10,32,23,0,33,19,36,14,27,11.
Spinning the wheel 37 times I guarantee you,  you will see at least one of those number before 20 spins. Most likely within 10 spins.
It is not the same as recording 37 spins and then go back and collect all the sleeping numbers.
That should answer your first question.
 
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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #25 on: March 14, 2017, 08:30:22 AM »
Kav, I re-worded my poll as you suggested, Thanks.

Thanks palestis, you have clarified my question to my satisfaction. I did not think there would be a difference. I set my poll back to ZERO, in case there's anyone who thinks there IS a difference, to give them a chance to explain how.

Maybe it was just the wording of the post that caused a misunderstanding.
 
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mr j

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #26 on: March 15, 2017, 04:31:03 AM »
 "The 0/00/1/2/3 bet on the American roulette is the only well known exception. It is the only bet that has lower expected value than all the others" >> (lol) I talk to the idiots here, players and dealers, most have no damn clue about it. Even if its brought up, they dont care, they still bet it.

Ken
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #27 on: March 15, 2017, 04:47:23 AM »
"The 0/00/1/2/3 bet on the American roulette is the only well known exception. It is the only bet that has lower expected value than all the others" >> (lol) I talk to the idiots here, players and dealers, most have no damn clue about it. Even if its brought up, they dont care, they still bet it.

Ken

MrJ,

Why don't you write a book about your experience with roulette?
I'd be the first to buy it, besides what's a pro without memoirs!

Afterall what's life without memories, empty.
What's a person without memories, a person without identity, without the sense of who he/she is.
Therefore memory determines who we are, not genes, and who we're determines what we do.

Take two twins for example, or cloned person, separate them from early childhood in order to grow in different environments, do you think those to individuals would be identical, or even similar by the age of 20 or older?

Where I could read your topic ''Finally I got it''?
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #28 on: March 15, 2017, 09:15:56 AM »
I think there is a difference between the probability for a real wheel and a true RNG.
The numbers of the dozens are not fair distributed on the circumference of the wheel