Royal Panda roulette

Poll

Does betting on the 1st DOZEN have the same PROBABILITY of NOT appearing for 37 spins, as betting on any group of 12 predetermined Numbers for 37 Spins?

Yes
3 (100%)
No
0 (0%)
I have no !&$%ing idea
0 (0%)

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Author Topic: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers  (Read 798 times)

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TERMINATOR

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Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« on: March 13, 2017, 08:19:12 PM »
Hi. I read something on a post here, and it's been nagging me. He said that if you bet 12 random individual numbers for 37 spins, there is a possibility that they will NOT show up. (It is common for 12 numbers not to appear within 37 spins of the wheel)

HOWEVER, if you bet the 1st Dozen (or any dozen), it is almost impossible for this to lose 37 spins in a row. Even though BOTH bets are using 12 numbers!

FIRST QUESION: Is there any truth to this? If so, can someone explain how they would have different probabilities?

My guess would be that the 1st dozen is only up against 2 other competitors (and the other 2 dozens would hit more often to compensate for the 1st dozen that missed). Whereas the 12 straight up numbers are competing against 25 other numbers. And when those 12 S/U numbers don't hit, they are absorbed by the other 25 numbers.

If these probabilities ARE different, this leads me to my...

SECOND QUESION: If the 12 straight up numbers were placed on numbers #1 through #12 (same as the 1st dozen), Would these 12 numbers still have the same odds as the 12 random numbers from my First Question, or the same odds from the 1st Dozen?

If these 12 S/U numbers probabilities CHANGE, what causes it to change its probabilities from the first question asked? Because they are STILL competing against 25 other numbers! Hmmmmmm.

Hope I'm making sense. Thank you.

« Last Edit: March 13, 2017, 08:26:18 PM by TERMINATOR »


 
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Reyth

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2017, 08:22:46 PM »
You are speaking about King Jesper, the king and ruler of skewed sequence generation.

I have to agree with Dobble here though, the wheel doesn't care about the felt, or even itself; it doesn't even know it's a wheel!

12 numbers are 12 numbers no matter how you look at them; i.e. you will get a diminishing/increasing amount of numbers regardless if they are a felted pattern or not.

Jesper and Pales disagree!  Or do they!?

Someone could say that since we are using a certain selection of 12 numbers that satisfy a particular criteria that we will encounter that criteria far more frequently than would be statistically expected; i.e. we will be compressing the odds exponentially and thus invoke the reverse engineering curse and will worsen the expected odds to at least equalling our conterfeited advantage.

I agree with that but its not because its a number on the felt, its because they aren't using the felted dozens to satisfy a particular criteria.

So they are speaking from experience, having been burned in trying to use a trigger based on any spun 12 numbers because of the above logic. 

Sadly, I must agree that triggers invoke the reverse engineering curse and if we apply those triggers based on any spun numbers, the curse will be far worse!
« Last Edit: March 13, 2017, 08:32:47 PM by Reyth »
 
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jekhb76

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2017, 09:18:48 PM »
I have played the dozens for many 1000's spins, the longest sleeping dozen i ever saw was 29 spins, but that was once in a perios of 2 years.
i believe that 32 was recorded once.
12 seperate numbers are not the same as a dozen 12. o saw 12 seperate numbers sleep for 38 spins once.
 
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kav

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2017, 10:03:07 PM »
A dozen has the same probability to sleep as any group of 12 PREDETERMINED numbers.
It is a completely different thing to just look at the results AFTER 37 spins and see that there 12 that didn't hit.

these are the stats for a dozen or any group of 12 Predetermined numbers:

Spins		Probability % to...
		...hit at least once	...hit exactly once	...hit more than once	...sleep all spins

1		32.432432432432435	32.432432432432435	0	67.56756756756756
2		54.346238130021916	43.82761139517896	10.518626734842954	45.653761869978084
3		69.15286360136616	44.41987641403273	24.732987187333435	30.84713639863384
4		79.15734027119336	40.017906679308766	39.1394335918846	20.842659728806645
5		85.91712180486037	33.798907668335104	52.11821413652527	14.082878195139624
6		90.4845417600408	27.404519731082516	63.08002202895828	9.515458239959205
7		93.5706363243519	21.602661950177655	71.96797437417425	6.429363675648111
8		95.65583535429181	16.681592239519425	78.97424311477238	4.344164645708183
9		97.06475361776474	12.680264371256317	84.38448924650842	2.935246382235259
10		98.01672541740861	9.519717996438677	88.49700742096994	1.9832745825913909
11		98.65994960635717	7.075466078434152	91.58448352792303	1.3400503936428318
12		99.09456054483593	5.215331261745076	93.87922928309085	0.9054394551640754
13		99.3882165843486	3.8175285136647505	95.57068807068384	0.6117834156514023
14		99.58663282726256	2.777827400795556	96.808805426467	0.41336717273743395
15		99.7206978562585	2.010975434938868	97.70972242131963	0.2793021437415094
16		99.8112823353098	1.4493516648208056	98.36193067048899	0.18871766469020904
17		99.87248806439851	1.0404973945081795	98.83199066989033	0.1275119356014926
18		99.91384328675575	0.7443940024303353	99.16944928432541	0.08615671324425175
19		99.94178600456469	0.5309116383699838	99.4108743661947	0.05821399543530524
20		99.96066621930046	0.37760429471549345	99.58306192458497	0.03933378069953056
21		99.97342312114897	0.26789493881842436	99.70552818233054	0.026576878851034158
22		99.98204264942498	0.1896296220722437	99.79241302735274	0.017957350575023078
23		99.98786665501687	0.13395212861368566	99.85391452640319	0.012133344983123703
24		99.99180179393032	0.09444333392269261	99.89735846000762	0.008198206069678176
25		99.99446067157454	0.06647194110549873	99.92798873046904	0.005539328425458227
26		99.99625721052334	0.04671001266872884	99.94954719785461	0.003742789476660964
27		99.99747108819145	0.03277469703886898	99.96469639115257	0.0025289118085547054
28		99.99829127580503	0.022965253180388678	99.97532602262464	0.0017087241949693955
29		99.99884545662502	0.016071243779712155	99.98277421284531	0.0011545433749793213
30		99.99921990312501	0.011233394999798802	99.98798650812522	0.0007800968749860278
31		99.9994729075169	0.007843136148508172	99.9916297713684	0.0005270924830986674
32		99.99964385643034	0.00547036522999698	99.99417349120034	0.00035614356966126175
33		99.99975936245293	0.0038116987455637744	99.99594766370737	0.00024063754706842006
34		99.99983740706278	0.0026535167352409565	99.99718389032755	0.00016259293720839193
35		99.9998901399073	0.0018456495575006652	99.9980444903498	0.00010986009270837293
36		99.99992577020762	0.0012826908121626244	99.99864307939546	0.00007422979237052223
37		99.99994984473489	0.0008907575084462669	99.99905908722644	0.000050155265115217726
 
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Rinad

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2017, 11:32:02 PM »


  that is what I know; different approch but all the same odds.

if i bet 1 single number 12 times, (12 spins), I am betting 12 numbers (even if they are the same), or 1 dozen.

if I bet 1 single number 18 times, it is the same as if I am betting red, black, even,ect....

the difference in betting 1 single number 12 times instead of a single dozen is the pay off is greater if I hit my single number within my first 11 spins. am I right ?
 
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Sheridan44

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2017, 11:46:31 PM »
Correct Rinad..... Dozens pay 2:1 per hit. Singles pay 35:1.
Interesting point you make......Dozens could be "made" any way you want to. They don't have to always be 1-12, 13-24, 25-36...  you could make your own "personal" dozen of let's say hot numbers....something like 1-2-3-4, 16-17-18-19, 28-29-30-31... they would be all over the place....but there's still 12 numbers.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2017, 11:50:52 PM by Sheridan44 »
 
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BlueAngel

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2017, 11:55:04 PM »

@ Rinad,In case of a win you'd win more, in case of loss you'd lose also more, if you bet a dozen with 12 units for 1 spin it's equivalent by betting 1 number with 1 unit for 12 spins.
The only thing which changes is the duration, but the bottom line is the same.

@ Terminator & Reyth

Can you calculate how many combinations/permutations of 12 different numbers there are?
On the total you'd found is the vast difference between betting 12 predetermined/specific numbers and by betting any 12 numbers.
This is also valid not only for 12 numbers but for any amount of numbers, focusing on wheel's and/or table's layout is misleading.
 

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2017, 12:17:14 AM »
No.

Betting 12 numbers once is absolutely not the same with betting 1 number for 12 spins.
For once, the probability of a win if you bet a dozen is higher.
If you bet a single number the probability of win is lower but the possible profit is higher.
 

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2017, 12:23:27 AM »


 BlueAngel, the greater outcome is if you bet 1 $ per spin for 12 spins, then again for another 12, and another 12 spins  you wont lose more then betting 12 $ per dz, yet you can actualy win more with a single number win.
 the total cost for 1$ bet 35 times is 35 $.
 total cost for betting a dozen 3 times with 12 $ each time is 35 $.
 the only difference is that if you hit your single within the first 11 spins, you get paid so much more. amazing to me.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2017, 12:24:18 AM »
No.

Betting 12 numbers once is absolutely not the same with betting 1 number for 12 spins.
For once, the probability of a win if you bet a dozen is higher.
If you bet a single number the probability of win is lower but the possible profit is higher.

Let's say I've 12 units and choose to bet 1 number for 12 spins and you have 12 units and select to bet all of them at once on single dozen, would you mind explaining the reason why your decision is better??
We have equal risk of 12 units, please explain what makes the difference.
 

Rinad

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2017, 12:33:39 AM »


  no problem,
 I sit down and decide with my 12 /1$ bet  to play a single number.

 on my 1st spin I get a hit ,I get paid 35 $, (did not even need to play 12 spins). I have a great opportunity.

I sit down and bet 12 $ on my dz and hit on my first spin, I get 24 $ . not a chance to get more.

that is the difference.

if I play 1$ for 12 spins, I lose 12$    (same exact amount if I lose my 12$ on my dz.
the difference is in the pay/off.

hope that makes sens, try to explain it the best i know how.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2017, 12:34:37 AM »

 BlueAngel, the greater outcome is if you bet 1 $ per spin for 12 spins, then again for another 12, and another 12 spins  you wont lose more then betting 12 $ per dz, yet you can actualy win more with a single number win.
 the total cost for 1$ bet 35 times is 35 $.
 total cost for betting a dozen 3 times with 12 $ each time is 35 $.
 the only difference is that if you hit your single within the first 11 spins, you get paid so much more. amazing to me.

We have to compare 'apples' with 'apples', put the same amount in risk, say 36 units.
You have 2 options:
1) flat bet 1 number 36 times with 1 unit 36*1=36
2) flat bet 1 dozen 3 times with 12 units 3*12=36

Sub-options for both of the 2 main options:
a) stop after a win
OR
b) bet all spins

The question is what makes the difference? (if any)

 

Rinad

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2017, 12:44:25 AM »


 I did compare aple to aple, right? same amount of money invested for 36 numbers played right?

the difference IS THE PAID OFF if you win within the first 12 spins.

that is why anybody is better off placing a 1$ bet on a single number for 12 spins then a 12 $ bet on a first attempt to a dozen.   the difference is because YOU HAVE OPPORTUNIY YOU DONT HAVE IN A DZ BET.
   
you can never get paid more then 24 $ on you first dz win, ever.
you can on your exact same risk you are taking with the exact same 12$  on a single number. big difference in real play.
 

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2017, 12:54:36 AM »

@ Rinad,
Yes, that makes sense because your profit could exceed the dozen's profit (35 vs 24) but your risk couldn't exceed the risk of the dozen's (12 vs 12).

Kav doesn't want to explain what I've requested.
So I'm going to explain it for him, considering more numbers in a single spin is advantageous than betting the equivalent amount in spins with a Single Number comes from the exposure to HE, more spins to be exposed to HE accumulates less probability for a single number to show at least once in equivalent number of spins.
But this is only one side of the coin, the other side says that if you place the equivalent amount in units (for example 12 units for 12 numbers) it has the same exposure to HE.
That's why 'outside' bets considered to be money-suckers by pros but favorites for amateurs.

 

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Re: Dozen vs. 12 Sraight Up Numbers
« Reply #14 on: March 14, 2017, 01:10:11 AM »


 Angelo, I agreed totaly with you, I was only speaking in terms of risk/reward ratio between single and dz play.

you are 100% right that outside bets are viewed as bad plays. that is because the more often one wins the more often"the house wins". like a taxation because they dont paid you what they could.

now betting a single number you will paid less in that HE then if you play a dz.
the more numbers you play at once, the more often you win, the more the house takes.
a players is always better off winning not as often then often in a way.
the casino dont care when you win often. but they dont like if they have to paid you many units and you do it once or twice. they always want your action because of that reason.
you dont risk more then 36 $ if you dont hit your number within 36 spins.
you dont lose more then 36 $ if you dont hit your dz within your 3 spins.
but you can always get more units playing 1 unit for 12 spins.  not sure if players actually realize that.
 
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