Author Topic: Roulette and gambling videos  (Read 490 times)

Reyth

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #30 on: March 05, 2017, 06:57:26 PM »
For variables to correlate, don't they need a license?  :-[
 

scepticus

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #31 on: March 05, 2017, 07:42:48 PM »
The wheel is only a device for spewing out random numbers . The table is only a device for placing bets.
Can you imagine everyone placing their chips on the wheel ?
 If we are told that The Law of Large Numbers will EVENTUALLY  reduce everything to near equality what has this to do with the wheel itself ? Does the wheel itself have a memory that enables it to comply with the Law of Large Numbers ?
I think such discussions are interesting but largely irrelevant to actual betting .
 
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Bayes

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #32 on: March 06, 2017, 07:25:02 AM »
Scep, it depends on your point of view.

Quote
If we are told that The Law of Large Numbers will EVENTUALLY  reduce everything to near equality what has this to do with the wheel itself ?

Good question! The LOLN doesn't "reduce" anything to equality or near equality, it just reflects whatever the characteristics of the wheel are, which may not lead to equality on all variables.

Quote
Does the wheel itself have a memory that enables it to comply with the Law of Large Numbers ?

Of course not. The LOLN is inescapable whether or not the wheel is perfect, but even if the wheel is "perfect enough" there can be factors which influence outcomes temporarily. However, if you're focussed on the stats generated from millions of spins, which will only confirm the theoretical probabilities, you may miss opportunities in the short run. There is no value in calculating the long run expectation because it's too crude a measure. Interesting and potentially profitable patterns are "washed out" out in the mass of data.

I'm coming around to Mr P's approach: divide and conquer. Here's an analogy from horse racing. The probability of a favourite winning is 35% over all races, but there's no value in betting on all favourites because the returns are too short. But restrict your bets to races where the ground is hard and you make a profit when betting the 2nd favourite (return = 114%).

http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/fav/index.php
« Last Edit: March 06, 2017, 07:39:53 AM by Bayes »
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #33 on: March 06, 2017, 09:16:00 AM »
Take a large number row of a live roulette. Now you convert the row with the distribution 0-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-etc. for example 32=1;15=2;19=3; 4=5; 21=6. I predict there is no difference in the average outcomes and features of the new squence.
 

Reyth

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #34 on: March 06, 2017, 09:40:40 AM »

So how do you use this to bet?
« Last Edit: March 06, 2017, 12:25:03 PM by kav »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #35 on: March 06, 2017, 09:59:21 AM »
It is not a tool to develop new or better systems and betting selection.

It is a proof that the number distribution on the circumference of the wheel does not influence the random sequence of a fair roulette device or a fair pseudo RNG
 
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scepticus

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #36 on: March 06, 2017, 03:57:59 PM »
The point I was trying to make , Bayes, is that the Law of Large Numbers is independent of the roulette wheel and yet the wheel numbers must relate to the Law of Large Numbers . From that I deduce that the answer to roulette winning can be found using  maths without reference to the wheel itself.
An RNG suffices as an adequate substitute to the wheel so we don’t need to be an AP.
Like Dobbelsteen, Palestis, and Harry J . I am a Short Termist  so agree that The Long Run has no real value in determining what to bet.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #37 on: March 06, 2017, 04:45:44 PM »
Interesting theory of yours. In real life it's the wheel wich is independent of whatever you think about it. It just does what it does without asking your ( or even mine) opinion.
    Assuming mifological " random wheel" in your theories will hurt your bankroll badly..... real wheels do not know how to be random, they are as random as it gets according to their physical parameters.
    If you wanna play systems that do not account for a wheel, probably fair rng would be better ( if anyone iven bothered to create one especially for you).
       You do not need to be AP. But if you want money from this game, it's only one way to go. These who are not AP, are strongly advised to stop paying taxes on their wrong understanding on the math. Casino games is ultimate reality, it show very well who used to study at school or doing something else....