Author Topic: Roulette and gambling videos  (Read 420 times)

jerome26b

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #15 on: March 03, 2017, 07:26:05 PM »
Reyth,

I mean the way the pockets are placed are not random to fit a perfect equilibrium of a random game so in some ways the physical wheels can lead to more ecart than a fair RNG.

Jerome
 

Reyth

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #16 on: March 03, 2017, 07:44:08 PM »
I believe that wheels cannot be perfect and that RNG is the closest we can come to truly random.  It seems like many people believe that differences are not readily discernable but Real has said they are; I believe he has said that the Chi Square test will show the difference over a large enough trial.
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #17 on: March 03, 2017, 08:29:01 PM »
I believe that wheels cannot be perfect and that RNG is the closest we can come to truly random.  It seems like many people believe that differences are not readily discernable but Real has said they are; I believe he has said that the Chi Square test will show the difference over a large enough trial.
But the question to ask ourselves if the physical wheels are not perfectly random is there a way to exploit this ? Instinctively I would say yes but in fact maybe it can be worse at the end cause à not 100% random distribution can lead to more variations in the random scheme right ? To be honest the studies about exploiting the physical wheel is very difficult to find ...
At a moment I thought talos was exploiting that and maybe he is ...

Jerome.
 

Reyth

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #18 on: March 03, 2017, 08:35:23 PM »
Talos knows that 0:300 repeated simply won't be seen by him and if it ever is, he will have won more than the measly 1400 units it will cost him; over 100K trials, no loss yet.
 

kav

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #19 on: March 03, 2017, 10:34:13 PM »
 
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kav

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Roulette has no memory. Period
« Reply #20 on: March 05, 2017, 12:22:04 AM »
Roulette has no memory. Period. So stop asking!


Please LIKE and SHARE our videos! We need the word to get out.
Also please subscribe.
Thanks
 
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jekhb76

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #21 on: March 05, 2017, 08:53:58 AM »
Very informative. thanks for giving us the oppertunity to learn more in depth on roulettte. looking forward to more videos. thanks.
 
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Bayes

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #22 on: March 05, 2017, 12:13:06 PM »
Quote
...it has laws to obey.

Agreed. Those laws are ultimately physical.

But I have an issue with the next part:

Quote
Following these laws roulette takes into account previous outcomes in order to conform to probabilistic expectations in the long run.

The "previous outcomes" part seems suspiciously like memory to me.  ;D

The probabilistic expectations are the result of the physical laws and the initial conditions for each spin, and that's all. Invoking previous outcomes isn't needed.

 

Reyth

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #23 on: March 05, 2017, 12:25:25 PM »
Right, that is because the previous spins are always the result of the odds of 1:37 that successively manifests on EACH SPIN and are a product of those successive odds.  We just observe the effects of that factoring when we look at spin histories which is why spin histories can be analyzed for things like 65/200 of an EC.

I think it all comes down to semantics and our problem is not with words, its with trying to approach roulette in a way that gives us an advantage without having the 1:37 factoring nullify (or even negatively augment!) our attempt.

Red & Black may break my bank but words will never hurt me, so Sputnik get in here and show us how to throw down some winning patterns! :P
« Last Edit: March 05, 2017, 12:32:07 PM by Reyth »
 

kav

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #24 on: March 05, 2017, 01:49:21 PM »
"Previous outcomes" is vague enough. 10, 1000 or 1mil previous spins? Both are "previous outcomes". So typically the video is correct IMO. And Reyth is probably right when saying that "it all comes down to semantics".
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #25 on: March 05, 2017, 01:54:23 PM »
I admire the distribution of the numbers on both wheels. If the roulette equipment is from a high standard, the distribution of the numbers has no influence on the long run sequence. The ratio number of spins /37 is with a very small deviation equal for all the numbers. This is not the case for a short run sequence. A 1000 number spins sequence is very small.
We must make a differece for an EC squence and a number sequence. For the EC the ratio is after 200 hundred spins with a very small deviation already 1. Inspite of this , this is not caused by the particular deviation of the ECs.
For example the dozens are not fair distributed on de circumverence. The ratio of each dozenis after about 700 spins nearly equal.
For the player is every roulette wheel a fair random generator.
The neighbors and sector bets make the roulette a pleasant game.

Unfortunately  there is no connection between the wheel and the table layout. For the player it is very difficult to place his chips on the numbers for the sectors. Formerly the croupier took the annoucings and placed the chip on the winning number. In more than 200 years the table layout is not changed.

Now I have developed a new table. The wheel  numbers are built in the table layout. The numbers of streets or double streets are also neignbors. The numbers of the sectors form blocks on the table. The player does not need the help of a croupier to place the chips on the right numbers on the table. There is also a possibility to bet on the left and right side of the wheel.
Taken together the Dutch Roulette Table layout has much benefits on the classic layout
 
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Bayes

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #26 on: March 05, 2017, 03:50:00 PM »
"Previous outcomes" is vague enough. 10, 1000 or 1mil previous spins? Both are "previous outcomes". So typically the video is correct IMO. And Reyth is probably right when saying that "it all comes down to semantics".

Kav, I think semantics are important and are not just about words, but meanings. Not being clear about meaning can lead to misunderstandings and mistakes, bad decisions etc. Besides, it seems like the video is about  semantics, because it's introduced by "Roulette has no memory".

Actually I should have been clearer in my first post. Your sentence:

Quote
Following these laws roulette takes into account previous outcomes in order to conform to probabilistic expectations in the long run.

suggests that roulette has some kind of a will because "in order" (in other words, "for the purpose of") conforming to probabilistic expectations it looks back at previous outcomes and adjusts itself accordingly. But what are "these laws" you mention? As I said, ultimately they are physical, but from a statistical POV it's the law of large numbers which determines the long run expectations, not some kind of feedback mechanism.

Obviously roulette isn't an entity but a collection of physical components which must exist in a particular configuration for outcomes to be equally likely in the long run, but if that configuration changes the outcomes will also change, although probably not perceptibly  without a detailed statistical analysis. The point being that the outcomes don't change as a result of some entity called "roulette"  somehow regulating itself, but because they are correlated with some change in the configuration or conditions.

I would argue that the only version of roulette which really does depend on past outcomes is a pseudo-RNG,  because numbers will repeat in predictable cycles.
 
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kav

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #27 on: March 05, 2017, 04:28:05 PM »
I'm talking about the normal distribution - the average expectation. It seems that when I use these I'm a victim of gambler's fallacy, but when you use them, you are fine :-)
 
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Reyth

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #28 on: March 05, 2017, 04:37:28 PM »
There is nothing wrong with looking at past "present spins" because every spin is governed by the present that makes up the past as much as it makes up the present. 

I don't think there is any guarantee that doing so will help us improve our results and depending on what we are doing, we might end up with worse results.

But still, since I know that say, with each successive repeat of a Dozen it is more likely for that streak series to end, I will bet opposite that Dozen every time; in the short  term, I may not obtain an advantage but I have to do something to isolate only a single string of events where I will lose and I have to be consistent about it to be effective.

So I think its better to talk about the best way to be effective in the face of successive 1:37 spins that may have no memory but it sure remembers that I tried to wait for a trigger to beat it and makes sure to extend the streak anyway... >.<
« Last Edit: March 05, 2017, 04:50:19 PM by Reyth »
 

Bayes

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Re: Roulette and gambling videos
« Reply #29 on: March 05, 2017, 05:41:54 PM »
I'm talking about the normal distribution - the average expectation. It seems that when I use these I'm a victim of gambler's fallacy, but when you use them, you are fine :-)

I'm not guilty of double standards though because I'm talking about causes and effects. Past spins can be used in different ways. Sure in both cases they're past spins but past spins are not in themselves causes, but effects. Effects of what? Raw data has to come from somewhere. If you can find a correlation between variables (which doesn't necessarily imply a cause, as they tell us in stats 101), this gives you more information than just comparing outcomes with what they should be on the assumption that outcomes are conforming to the normal distribution.